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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Missing microbial eukaryotes and misleading meta-omic conclusions

Meta-omics is commonly used for large-scale analyses of microbial eukaryotes, including species or taxonomic group distribution mapping, gene catalog construction, and inference on the functional roles and activities of microbial eukaryotes in situ. Here, we explore the potential pitfalls of common approaches to taxonomic annotation of protistan meta-omic datasets. We re-analyze three environmental datasets at three levels of taxonomic hierarchy in order to illustrate the crucial importance of database completeness and curation in enabling accurate environmental interpretation. We show that taxonomic membership of sequence clusters estimates community composition more accurately than returning exact sequence labels, and overlap between clusters can address database shortcomings. Clustering approaches can be applied to diverse environments while continuing to exploit the wealth of annotation data collated in databases, and selecting and evaluating these databases is a critical part of correctly annotating protistan taxonomy in environmental datasets. We argue that ongoing curation of genetic resources is crucial in accurately annotating protists in in situ meta-omic datasets. Moreover, we propose that precise taxonomic annotation of meta-omic data is a clustering problem rather than a feasible alignment problem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cataloging accreted stars within Gaia DR2 using deep learning

The goal of this study is to present the development of a machine learning based approach that utilizes phase space alone to separate the Gaia DR2 stars into two categories: those accreted onto the Milky Way from those that are in situ. Traditional selection methods that have been used to identify accreted stars typically rely on full 3D velocity, metallicity information, or both, which significantly reduces the number of classifiable stars. The approach advocated here is applicable to a much larger portion of Gaia DR2. Methods. A method known as “transfer learning” is shown to be effective through extensive testing on a set of mock Gaia catalogs that are based on the F IRE cosmological zoom-in hydrodynamic simulations of Milky Way-mass galaxies. The machine is first trained on simulated data using only 5D kinematics as inputs and is then further trained on a cross-matched Gaia /RAVE data set, which improves sensitivity to properties of the real Milky Way. Results. The result is a catalog that identifies ~767 000 accreted stars within Gaia DR2. This catalog can yield empirical insights into the merger history of the Milky Way and could be used to infer properties of the dark matter distribution.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrinsic nonlocality of spin- and polarization-resolved probabilities in strong-field quantum electrodynamics

Spin and polarization are central to precision tests of fundamental physics and for interpreting radiation from astrophysical sources and ultraintense laser-matter experiments. Here, focusing on the fundamental process of nonlinear Compton scattering, we demonstrate that a key assumption underlying current strong-field quantum electrodynamics models, i.e., that emission can be treated as an instantaneous random event sampled from a local differential rate, is inconsistent once emission angles, electron spin, and/or photon polarization are resolved. Namely, even in strictly constant and uniform fields , the resulting fully differential distribution is sign indefinite, yielding negative inferred probabilities. The physical reason is that the photon emission probability builds up over a finite length of the electron trajectory, the formation region, during which the electron direction changes by roughly the same small angle that defines the radiation cone. Therefore, we put forward a new method where we integrate over this formation region analytically to obtain a physically consistent electron spin and photon polarization model. We show that the implementation of our model is compatible with existing Monte Carlo and particle-in-cell workflows. Simulations of a GeV-class electron-laser collision accessible at current petawatt facilities and of emission in a pulsarlike magnetic field are shown to reveal spin and polarization patterns that differ even qualitatively from state-of-the-art local models. In particular, our new model predicts substantial angle-dependent circular photon polarization where the well-known collinear-emission approach yields none, and a pronounced helicity bias in the recoiling electrons absent from current predictions. These findings have direct implications for upcoming strong-field QED experiments and for interpreting polarized radiation from extreme astrophysical environments.

astrophysical electromagnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Graphical Model for Fusing Diverse Microbiome Data

This paper develops a Bayesian graphical model for fusing disparate types of count data. The motivating application is the study of bacterial communities from diverse high-dimensional features, in this case, transcripts, collected from different treatments. In such datasets, there are no explicit correspondences between the communities and each corresponds to different factors, making data fusion challenging. We introduce a flexible multinomial-Gaussian generative model for jointly modeling such count data. This latent variable model jointly characterizes the observed data through a common multivariate Gaussian latent space that parameterizes the set of multinomial probabilities of the transcriptome counts. The covariance matrix of the latent variables induces a covariance matrix of co-dependencies between all the transcripts, effectively fusing multiple data sources. We present a computationally scalable variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring the latent variables and the parameters of the model. Here, the inferred latent variables provide a common dimensionality reduction for visualizing the data and the inferred parameters provide a predictive posterior distribution. In addition to simulation studies that demonstrate the variational EM procedure, we apply our model to a bacterial microbiome dataset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and widespread environmental distribution of a gene cassette implicated in anaerobic dichloromethane degradation

Anthropogenic activities and natural processes release dichloromethane (DCM, methylene chloride), a toxic chemical with substantial ozone-depleting capacity. Specialized anaerobic bacteria metabolize DCM; however, the genetic basis for this process has remained elusive. Comparative genomics of the three known anaerobic DCM-degrading bacterial species revealed a homologous gene cluster, designated the methylene chloride catabolism (mec) gene cassette, comprising 8–10 genes encoding proteins with 79.6%–99.7% amino acid identities. Functional annotation identified genes encoding a corrinoid-dependent methyltransferase system, and shotgun proteomics applied to two DCM-catabolizing cultures revealed high expression of proteins encoded on the mec gene cluster during anaerobic growth with DCM. In a DCM-contaminated groundwater plume, the abundance of mec genes strongly correlated with DCM concentrations (R 2 = 0.71–0.85) indicating their potential value as process-specific bioremediation biomarkers. mec gene clusters were identified in metagenomes representing peat bogs, the deep subsurface, and marine ecosystems including oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), suggesting a capacity for DCM degradation in diverse habitats. Here, the broad distribution of anaerobic DCM catabolic potential infers a role for DCM as an energy source in various environmental systems, and implies that the global DCM flux (i.e., the rate of formation minus the rate of consumption) might be greater than emission measurements suggest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Rocket-based vector magnetic measurements of Sq ionospheric currents near sporadic E.

A rocket-borne vector magnetometer has been used to infer the current magnitude, direction, and distribution of midlatitude ionospheric currents near sporadic E. Complete vector information returned throughout the flight indicates that a southward equivalent surface current (vertically integrated current) of 0.15 amp/m was encountered between the altitudes of 104 and 118 km in both ascending and descending portions of the flight. Vertical distribution of the current within the layer was approximately uniform, and the layer was found to be horizontal within the accuracy of the experiment. The data are consistent with the assumption that a sporadic-E layer observed by Wallops Island ionosondes significantly altered the usual Sq current flow pattern by concentrating the current into a narrow altitude range, and by horizontally focusing the current flow into the sporadic-E region with attendant reduction of current density outside the region.

Cloutier, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The Nimbus-4 backscatter ultraviolet (BUV) atmospheric ozone experiment two years operation

The Backscatter Ultraviolet (BUV) experiment aboard the Nimbus-4 satellite is discussed. This double monochromator experiment measures ultraviolet terrestrial radiance at 12 discrete wavelengths between 2550 A and 3400 A. Approximately 100 scans covering a 230 kilometer square are made between terminator crossings on the daylight side of the earth. A colinear photometer channel with the same field of view is used to derive the Lambert reflectivity of the lower boundary of the scattering atmosphere. The extraterrestrial solar irradiance is measured at the northern terminator. The instrument has currently produced almost three years of nearly continuous data which are being used to infer the high-level ozone distribution and total ozone on a global basis. The high-level ozone data have been verified by independent coincident rocket ozone soundings, and the total ozone values show good agreement with Dobson spectrophotometer determinations as well as those made with the Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer also on Nimbus-4.

Heath, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The Nimbus-4 backscatter ultraviolet /BUV/ atmospheric ozone experiment Two years' operation.

Review of some of the procedures and results of the double monochromator and colinear photometer Nimbus-4 satellite experiment that measures ultraviolet terrestrial radiance, Lambert reflectivity of the lower boundary of the scattering atmosphere, and extraterrestrial solar irradiance. The experiment has produced nearly three years of almost continuous data which are being used to infer the high-level ozone distribution and total ozone on a global basis. The high-level ozone data have been verified by independent coincident rocket ozone soundings, and the total ozone values show good agreement with Dobson spectrophotometer determinations. An increase has been observed in equatorial radiance at 2550 A relative to 2900 A, which seems to indicate that the amount of ozone in the upper stratosphere is related to the eleven-year solar cycle.

Heath, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Solar heating of the Martian dusty atmosphere

This paper examines the solar heating of the Martian atmosphere during the 1971 global dust storm observed by Mariner 9. Radiative scattering as well as absorption is included by utilizing the delta-Eddington approximation to the full radiative transfer equation. The necessary optical parameters are generated by a Mie program which uses a size distribution and a complex refractive index inferred from a number of sources, particularly from recent analyses of Mariner 9 UVS and TV observations. When uniform mixing of the dust is assumed, the solar heating per unit mass during a Martian global dust storm is remarkably uniform with height for small solar zenith angles. Heating rates may reach 80 K/day for overhead sunlight. Overall, 20% of the direct insolation is absorbed by the dust-laden atmosphere. Even optically thin widespread dust hazes may produce heating rates of several degrees Kelvin per day.

Zurek, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Distribution of aurora and ionospheric currents observed simultaneously on a global scale

The instantaneous spatial distribution of auroral emissions is observed with auroral imaging photometers on board the spacecraft Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE 1) as ground-based meridian chains of magnetometers simultaneously detect the magnetic signatures of ionospheric and field-aligned currents flowing at northern polar latitudes. Ionospheric conductivities at nighttime auroral latitudes are estimated from the measured auroral luminosities and used with the measured polar magnetic variations to compute model distributions of ionospheric and field-aligned currents. Temporal resolution for the coordinated observations and model calculations is 12 minutes. Model ionospheric and field-aligned current distributions are overlayed on global auroral images to illustrate spatial relations on a global scale at the maximum epoch of an auroral substorm. Eccentric-dipole-latitude and magnetic-local-time coordinates are used. A model field-aligned current distribution is compared quantitatively with the distribution of field-aligned currents inferred from simultaneous observations by the DE-2 magnetometer.

Craven, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Particle track measurements in lunar regolith breccias

Particle track measurements have been reported for 25 (5 percent) of the regolith breccias in the collection; they have been reported for 16 breccias (30 percent) in the reference suite. The most frequently reported measurement for these 25 breccias is the maximum surface exposure age of the compacted rock (48 percent of the published breccia measurements). Information on the nature of the precompaction regolith is given for 9 rocks (36 percent) and on the nature of the compaction event for 6 rocks (24 percent). Most of the breccias appear to have simple post-compaction surface exposure histories (89 percent). From the few track density frequency distributions (7) that are available and inferring from the low exposure ages of these rocks (75 percent were younger than 10 to the 6th years), it appears that most of these breccias are amenable to studies which separate the contemporary surface exposure age from information about the precompaction regolith. If the number of immature-submature precompaction soils (6 out of 10 of the breccias for which appropriate data are available) represents many regolith breccias, then we can infer that regolith breccias may sample the deeper, less reworked materials in the lunar soil and compliment the samples available from the returned cores.

Blanford, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Particle track measurements in lunar regolith breccias

Particle track measurements have been reported for 25 (5 percent) of the regolith breccias in the collection; they have been reported for 16 breccias (30%) in the reference suite. The most frequently reported measurement for these 25 breccias is the maximum surface exposure age of the compacted rock (48% of the published breccia measurements). Information on the nature of the precompaction regolith is given for 9 rocks (36%) and on the nature of the compaction event for 6 rocks (24%). Most of the breccias appear to have simple post compaction surface exposure histories (89%). From the few track density frequency distributions (7) that are available and inferring from the low exposure ages of these rocks (75% were younger than 10 to the 6th years), it appears that most of these breccias are amenable to studies which separate the contemporary surface exposure age from information about the precompaction regolith. If the number of immature submature precompaction soils (6 out of 10 of the breccias for which appropriate data are available) represents many regolith breccias, then it is inferred that regolith breccias may sample the deeper, less reworked materials in the lunar soil and compliment the samples available from the returned cores.

Blanford, G. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar cycle variation of some mass dependent characteristics of upflowing beams of terrestrial ions

Examination of the S3-3 and DE ion composition data spread over a solar cycle indicates that some characteristics of energetic upflowing terrestrial ion beams above the auroral zone show dependence on solar cycle. At solar maximum the different ion beam mass components have comparable mean energies, and O(+) dominates the beam composition. The ion energies are consistent with having been acquired from the potential drop below the satellite inferred from the electron loss cone distributions. At solar minimum the beam composition is dominated by H(+), but the O(+) has a higher mean energy and is hotter than the H(+) component. Also, the O(+) has more energy than it could itself have acquired from the potential drop. These observations are qualitatively consistent with the ion beams having acquired their energies from a parallel electric field and being partially thermalized through the two-stream instability between the two ion species, with this effect being modulated by the beam composition.

Collin, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cassini atmospheric chemistry mapper. Volume 1. Investigation and technical plan

The Cassini Atmospheric Chemistry Mapper (ACM) enables a broad range of atmospheric science investigations for Saturn and Titan by providing high spectral and spatial resolution mapping and occultation capabilities at 3 and 5 microns. ACM can directly address the major atmospheric science objectives for Saturn and for Titan, as defined by the Announcement of Opportunity, with pivotal diagnostic measurements not accessible to any other proposed Cassini instrument. ACM determines mixing ratios for atmospheric molecules from spectral line profiles for an important and extensive volume of the atmosphere of Saturn (and Jupiter). Spatial and vertical profiles of disequilibrium species abundances define Saturn's deep atmosphere, its chemistry, and its vertical transport phenomena. ACM spectral maps provide a unique means to interpret atmospheric conditions in the deep (approximately 1000 bar) atmosphere of Saturn. Deep chemistry and vertical transport is inferred from the vertical and horizontal distribution of a series of disequilibrium species. Solar occultations provide a method to bridge the altitude range in Saturn's (and Titan's) atmosphere that is not accessible to radio science, thermal infrared, and UV spectroscopy with temperature measurements to plus or minus 2K from the analysis of molecular line ratios and to attain an high sensitivity for low-abundance chemical species in the very large column densities that may be achieved during occultations for Saturn. For Titan, ACM solar occultations yield very well resolved (1/6 scale height) vertical mixing ratios column abundances for atmospheric molecular constituents. Occultations also provide for detecting abundant species very high in the upper atmosphere, while at greater depths, detecting the isotopes of C and O, constraining the production mechanisms, and/or sources for the above species. ACM measures the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosols via their opacity at 3 microns and, particularly, at 5 microns. ACM recovers spatially-resolved atmospheric temperatures in Titan's troposphere via 3- and 5-microns spectral transitions. Together, the mixing ratio profiles and the aerosol distributions are utilized to investigate the photochemistry of the stratosphere and consequent formation processes for aerosols. Finally, ring opacities, observed during solar occultations and in reflected sunlight, provide a measurement of the particle size and distribution of ring material. ACM will be the first high spectral resolution mapping spectrometer on an outer planet mission for atmospheric studies while retaining a high resolution spatial mapping capability. ACM, thus, opens an entirely new range of orbital scientific studies of the origin, physio-chemical evolution and structure of the Saturn and Titan atmospheres. ACM provides high angular resolution spectral maps, viewing nadir and near-limb thermal radiation and reflected sunlight; sounds planetary limbs, spatially resolving vertical profiles to several atmospheric scale heights; and measures solar occultations, mapping both atmospheres and rings. ACM's high spectral and spatial resolution mapping capability is achieved with a simplified Fourier Transform spectrometer with a no-moving parts, physically compact design. ACM's simplicity guarantees an inherent stability essential for reliable performance throughout the lengthy Cassini Orbiter mission.

Smith, William Hayden↗
NASA NTRS1994

Atomic and molecular gas in interstellar cirrus clouds

The dust, atomic gas, and molecular gas content of a sample of 26 of isolated, degree-sized infrared clouds are compared. Half of the clouds have an infrared excess indicating the presence of H2, and 14 contain compact CO-emitting regions. Complete, high angular resolution H I and CO maps of one cloud, G236+39, resolve the transition between atomic and molecular H, as well as the location of CO formation. Assuming the infrared emission traces the total column density, H2 is inferred to be much more widely distributed than the CO. The CO rotational levels are subthermally excited, and the (2 - 1)/(1 - 0) line ratios suggest a density n(H2) approximately 200/cm(exp 3) where CO was detected. A model of H2 formation on grain surfaces balanced by self-shielded photodissociation fits the variation of infrared brightness with H I column density. Assuming a temperature of 80 K, typical of diffuse H2 (Savage et al. 1977), the H2 chemistry requires an average density n(H + 2H2) approximately 50/cm(exp 3). For G236+39, if the distance is 100 pc, the H I and H2 masses are estimated to be 90 and 70 solar mass, respectively. High-resolution H I and infrared maps of a smaller cloud, G249.0+73.7, reveal no evidence for molecular gas, which is likely due to the low total column density through this cloud. These results suggest the H2 and H I content are comparable for some interstellar cirrus clouds with column densities N(H I) greater than 4 x 10(exp 20)/cm(exp 2), even where CO was not detected.

Reach, William T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Observing Tropospheric Ozone From Space

The importance of tropospheric ozone embraces a spectrum of relevant scientific issues ranging from local environmental concerns, such as damage to the biosphere and human health, to those that impact global change questions, Such is climate warming. From an observational perspective, the challenge is to determine the tropospheric ozone global distribution. Because its lifetime is short compared with other important greenhouse gases that have been monitored over the past several decades, the distribution of tropospheric ozone cannot be inferred from a relatively small set of monitoring stations. Therefore, the best way to obtain a true global picture is from the use of space-based instrumentation where important spatial gradients over vast ocean expanses and other uninhabited areas can be properly characterized. In this paper, the development of the capability to measure tropospheric ozone from space over the past 15 years is summarized. Research in the late 1980s successfully led to the determination of the climatology of tropospheric ozone as a function of season; more recently, the methodology has improved to the extent where regional air pollution episodes can be characterized. The most recent modifications now provide quasi-global (50 N) to 50 S) maps on a daily basis. Such a data set would allow for the study of long-range (intercontinental) transport of air pollution and the quantification of how regional emissions feed into the global tropospheric ozone budget. Future measurement capabilities within this decade promise to offer the ability to provide Concurrent maps of the precursors to the in situ formation of tropospheric ozone from which the scientific community will gain unprecedented insight into the processes that control global tropospheric chemistry

Fishman, Jack↗