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At least 451 records · Page 25

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled WRF/GSI Forecasts

Automating the coupling of data assimilation (DA) and modeling systems is a unique challenge in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) research community. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released well-documented tools such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system that can be easily downloaded, installed, and run by researchers on their local systems. However, developing a coupled system in which the various preprocessing, DA, model, and postprocessing capabilities are all integrated can be labor-intensive if one has little experience with any of these individual systems. Additionally, operational modeling entities generally have specific coupling methodologies that can take time to understand and develop code to implement properly. To better enable collaborating researchers to perform modeling and DA experiments with GSI, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a set of Perl scripts that couple GSI and WRF in a cycling methodology consistent with the use of real-time, regional observation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Because Perl is open source, the code can be easily downloaded and executed regardless of the user's native shell environment. This paper will provide a description of this open-source code and descriptions of a number of the use cases that have been performed by SPoRT collaborators using the scripts on different computing systems.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Effective Albedo of Vegetated Terrain at L-Band

This paper derives an explicit expression for an effective albedo of vegetated terrain from the zero- and multiple- order radiative transfer (RT) model comparison. The formulation establishes a direct physical link between the effective vegetation parameterization and the theoretical description of absorption and scattering within the canopy. The paper will present an evaluation of the derived albedo for corn canopies with data taken during an experiment at Alabama A&M Winfield A. Thomas Agricultural Research Station near Huntsville, Alabama in June, 1998. The test site consisted of two 50-m x 60-m plots - one with a bare surface and the other with grass cover - and four 30-m x 50-m plots of corn at different planting densities. One corn field was planted at a full density of 9.5 plants/sq m while the others were planted at 1/3, 1/2 and 2/3 of the full density. The fields were observed with a truck-mounted L-band radiometer at incident angle of 15 degree for the period of two weeks. Soil moisture (SM) changed daily due to irrigation and natural rainfall. Variations in gravimetric SM from 18 % to 34 % were seen during this period. Ground truth data, including careful characterization of the corn size and orientation statistics, and its dielectric, was also collected and used to simulate the effective albedo for the vegetation. The single-scattering albedo is defined as the fractional power scattered from individual vegetation constituents with respect to canopy extinction. It represents single-scattering properties of vegetation elements only, and is independent of ground properties. The values of the albedo get higher when there is dense vegetation (i.e. forest, mature corn, etc.) with scatterers, such as branches and trunks (or stalks in the case of corn), which are large with respect to the wavelength. This large albedo leads to a reduction in brightness temperature in the zero-order RT solution (known as tau-omega model). Higher-order multiple-scattering RT solutions are required for proper representation of scattering within vegetation. In this paper, an expression for an effective albedo for the whole canopy including the ground is derived for use in the zero-order RT model-based SM retrieval. This effective albedo takes into account of all the processes taking place within the canopy, including multiple-scattering. This new formulation will be presented and its importance for microwave SM retrieval will be evaluated for corn canopies in conjunction with the detailed ground truth data obtained during the experiment at Alabama in 1998. Emphasis will be placed on examining how the radiometer response to SM is modified by the corn canopy scattering under different field conditions. A semi-empirical parameterization of the effective albedo will be investigated through analysis of SM and vegetation water content effects on the effective albedo.

Kurum, Mehmet↗

Inverse problems: Fuzzy representation of uncertainty generates a regularization

In many applied problems (geophysics, medicine, and astronomy) we cannot directly measure the values x(t) of the desired physical quantity x in different moments of time, so we measure some related quantity y(t), and then we try to reconstruct the desired values x(t). This problem is often ill-posed in the sense that two essentially different functions x(t) are consistent with the same measurement results. So, in order to get a reasonable reconstruction, we must have some additional prior information about the desired function x(t). Methods that use this information to choose x(t) from the set of all possible solutions are called regularization methods. In some cases, we know the statistical characteristics both of x(t) and of the measurement errors, so we can apply statistical filtering methods (well-developed since the invention of a Wiener filter). In some situations, we know the properties of the desired process, e.g., we know that the derivative of x(t) is limited by some number delta, etc. In this case, we can apply standard regularization techniques (e.g., Tikhonov's regularization). In many cases, however, we have only uncertain knowledge about the values of x(t), about the rate with which the values of x(t) can change, and about the measurement errors. In these cases, usually one of the existing regularization methods is applied. There exist several heuristics that choose such a method. The problem with these heuristics is that they often lead to choosing different methods, and these methods lead to different functions x(t). Therefore, the results x(t) of applying these heuristic methods are often unreliable. We show that if we use fuzzy logic to describe this uncertainty, then we automatically arrive at a unique regularization method, whose parameters are uniquely determined by the experts knowledge. Although we start with the fuzzy description, but the resulting regularization turns out to be quite crisp.

Kreinovich, V.↗

Climatological Processing of Radar Data for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was successfully launched in November, 1997. The main purpose of TRMM is to sample tropical rainfall using the first active spaceborne precipitation radar. To validate TRMM satellite observations, a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program has been implemented. The primary goal of TRMM GV is to provide basic validation of satellite-derived precipitation measurements over monthly climatologies for the following primary sites: Melbourne, FL; Houston, TX; Darwin, Australia; and Kwajalein Atoll, RMI. As part of the TRMM GV effort, research analysts at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) generate standardized TRMM GV products using quality-controlled ground-based radar data from the four primary GV sites as input. This presentation will provide an overview of the TRMM GV climatological processing system. A description of the data flow between the primary GV sites, NASA GSFC, and the TRMM Science and Data Information System (TSDIS) will be presented. The radar quality control algorithm, which features eight adjustable height and reflectivity parameters, and its effect on monthly rainfall maps will be described. The methodology used to create monthly, gauge-adjusted rainfall products for each primary site will also be summarized. The standardized monthly rainfall products are developed in discrete, modular steps with distinct intermediate products. These developmental steps include: (1) extracting radar data over the locations of rain gauges, (2) merging rain gauge and radar data in time and space with user-defined options, (3) automated quality control of radar and gauge merged data by tracking accumulations from each instrument, and (4) deriving Z-R relationships from the quality-controlled merged data over monthly time scales. A summary of recently reprocessed official GV rainfall products available for TRMM science users will be presented. Updated basic standardized product results and trends involving monthly accumulation, Z-R relationship, and gauge statistics for each primary GV site will be also displayed.

Kulie, Mark↗

Decompression Sickness After Air Break in Prebreathe Described with a Survival Model

Data from Brooks City-Base show the decompression sickness (DCS) and venous gas emboli (VGE) consequences of air breaks in a resting 100% O2 prebreathe (PB) prior to a hypobaric exposure. METHODS: DCS and VGE survival times from 95 controls for a 60 min PB prior to 2-hr or 4-hr exposures to 4.37 psia are statistically compared to 3 break in PB conditions: a 10 min (n=40), 20 min (n=40), or 60 min break (n=32) 30 min into the PB followed by 30 min of PB. Ascent rate was 1,524 meters / min and all exposures included light exercise and 4 min of VGE monitoring of heart chambers at 16 min intervals. DCS survival time for combined control and air breaks were described with an accelerated log logistic model where exponential N2 washin during air break was described with a 10 min half-time and washout during PB with a 60 min half-time. RESULTS: There was no difference in VGE or DCS survival times among 3 different air breaks, or when air breaks were compared to control VGE times. However, 10, 20, and 60 min air breaks had significantly earlier survival times compared to control DCS times, certainly early in the exposures. CONCLUSION: Air breaks of 10, 20, and 60 min after 30 min of a 60 min PB reduced DCS survival time. The survival model combined discrete comparisons into a global description mechanistically linked to asymmetrical N2 washin and washout kinetics based on inspired pN2. Our unvalidated regression is used to compute additional PB time needed to compensate for an air break in PB within the range of tested conditions.

Conkin, J.↗

Physics of Life: A Model for Non-Newtonian Properties of Living Systems

This innovation proposes the reconciliation of the evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics via the introduction of the First Principle for modeling behavior of living systems. The structure of the model is quantum-inspired: it acquires the topology of the Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced with the information potential. As a result, the model captures the most fundamental property of life: the progressive evolution; i.e. the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The mathematical structure of the model can be obtained from the Newtonian equations of motion (representing the motor dynamics) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equation (representing the mental dynamics) via information forces. All these specific non-Newtonian properties equip the model with the levels of complexity that matches the complexity of life, and that makes the model applicable for description of behaviors of ecological, social, and economical systems. Rather than addressing the six aspects of life (organization, metabolism, growth, adaptation, response to stimuli, and reproduction), this work focuses only on biosignature ; i.e. the mechanical invariants of life, and in particular, the geometry and kinematics of behavior of living things. Living things obey the First Principles of Newtonian mechanics. One main objective of this model is to extend the First Principles of classical physics to include phenomenological behavior on living systems; to develop a new mathematical formalism within the framework of classical dynamics that would allow one to capture the specific properties of natural or artificial living systems such as formation of the collective mind based upon abstract images of the selves and non-selves; exploitation of this collective mind for communications and predictions of future expected characteristics of evolution; and for making decisions and implementing the corresponding corrections if the expected scenario is different from the originally planned one. This approach postulates that even a primitive living species possesses additional, non-Newtonian properties that are not included in the laws of Newtonian or statistical mechanics. These properties follow from a privileged ability of living systems to possess a self-image (a concept introduced in psychology) and to interact with it. The proposed mathematical system is based on the coupling of the classical dynamical system representing the motor dynamics with the corresponding Liouville equation describing the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of the probability density and representing the mental dynamics. The coupling is implemented by the information-based supervising forces that can be associated with self-awareness. These forces fundamentally change the pattern of the probability evolution, and therefore, lead to a major departure of the behavior of living systems from the patterns of both Newtonian and statistical mechanics. This innovation is meant to capture the signature of life based only on observable behavior, not on any biochemistry. This will not prevent the use of this model for developing artificial living systems, as well as for studying some general properties of behavior of natural, living systems.

Zak, Michail↗

The Impact of Radiation Damage on Photon Counting with an EMCCD for the WFIRST-AFTA Coronagraph

WFIRST-AFTA is a 2.4m class NASA observatory designed to address a wide range of science objectives using two complementary scientific payloads. The Wide Field Instrument (WFI) offers Hubble quality imaging over a 0.28 square degree field of view, and will gather NIR statistical data on exoplanets through gravitational microlensing. The second instrument is a high contrast coronagraph that will carry out the direct imaging and spectroscopic analysis of exoplanets, providing a means to probe the structure and composition of planetary systems. The coronagraph instrument is expected to operate in low photon flux for long integration times, meaning all noise sources must be kept to a minimum. In order to satisfy the low noise requirements, the Electron Multiplication (EM)-CCD has been baselined for both the imaging and spectrograph cameras. The EMCCD was selected in comparison with other candidates because of its low effective electronic read noise at sub-electron values with appropriate multiplication gain setting. The presence of other noise sources, however, such as thermal dark signal and Clock Induced Charge (CIC), need to be characterised and mitigated. In addition, operation within a space environment will subject the device to radiation damage that will degrade the Charge Transfer Efficiency (CTE) of the device throughout the mission lifetime. Here we present our latest results from pre- and post-irradiation testing of the e2v CCD201-20 BI EMCCD sensor, baselined for the WFIRST-AFTA coronagraph instrument. A description of the detector technology is presented, alongside considerations for operation within a space environment. The results from a room temperature irradiation are discussed in context with the nominal operating requirements of AFTA-C and future work which entails a cryogenic irradiation of the CCD201-20 is presented.

Peddada, Pavani↗

A GPS-Based Pitot-Static Calibration Method Using Global Output-Error Optimization

Pressure-based airspeed and altitude measurements for aircraft typically require calibration of the installed system to account for pressure sensing errors such as those due to local flow field effects. In some cases, calibration is used to meet requirements such as those specified in Federal Aviation Regulation Part 25. Several methods are used for in-flight pitot-static calibration including tower fly-by, pacer aircraft, and trailing cone methods. In the 1990 s, the introduction of satellite-based positioning systems to the civilian market enabled new inflight calibration methods based on accurate ground speed measurements provided by Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Use of GPS for airspeed calibration has many advantages such as accuracy, ease of portability (e.g. hand-held) and the flexibility of operating in airspace without the limitations of test range boundaries or ground telemetry support. The current research was motivated by the need for a rapid and statistically accurate method for in-flight calibration of pitot-static systems for remotely piloted, dynamically-scaled research aircraft. Current calibration methods were deemed not practical for this application because of confined test range size and limited flight time available for each sortie. A method was developed that uses high data rate measurements of static and total pressure, and GPSbased ground speed measurements to compute the pressure errors over a range of airspeed. The novel application of this approach is the use of system identification methods that rapidly compute optimal pressure error models with defined confidence intervals in nearreal time. This method has been demonstrated in flight tests and has shown 2- bounds of approximately 0.2 kts with an order of magnitude reduction in test time over other methods. As part of this experiment, a unique database of wind measurements was acquired concurrently with the flight experiments, for the purpose of experimental validation of the optimization method. This paper describes the GPS-based pitot-static calibration method developed for the AirSTAR research test-bed operated as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Controls (IRAC) project in the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). A description of the method will be provided and results from recent flight tests will be shown to illustrate the performance and advantages of this approach. Discussion of maneuver requirements and data reduction will be included as well as potential applications.

Foster, John V.↗

Stardust Navigation Covariance Analysis

The Stardust spacecraft was launched on February 7, 1999 aboard a Boeing Delta-II rocket. Mission participants include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Lockheed Martin Astronautics (LMA) and the University of Washington. The primary objective of the mission is to collect in-situ samples of the coma of comet Wild-2 and return those samples to the Earth for analysis. Mission design and operational navigation for Stardust is performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). This paper will describe the extensive JPL effort in support of the Stardust pre-launch analysis of the orbit determination component of the mission covariance study. A description of the mission and it's trajectory will be provided first, followed by a discussion of the covariance procedure and models. Predicted accuracy's will be examined as they relate to navigation delivery requirements for specific critical events during the mission. Stardust was launched into a heliocentric trajectory in early 1999. It will perform an Earth Gravity Assist (EGA) on January 15, 2001 to acquire an orbit for the eventual rendezvous with comet Wild-2. The spacecraft will fly through the coma (atmosphere) on the dayside of Wild-2 on January 2, 2004. At that time samples will be obtained using an aerogel collector. After the comet encounter Stardust will return to Earth when the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) will separate and land at the Utah Test Site (UTTR) on January 15, 2006. The spacecraft will however be deflected off into a heliocentric orbit. The mission is divided into three phases for the covariance analysis. They are 1) Launch to EGA, 2) EGA to Wild-2 encounter and 3) Wild-2 encounter to Earth reentry. Orbit determination assumptions for each phase are provided. These include estimated and consider parameters and their associated a-priori uncertainties. Major perturbations to the trajectory include 19 deterministic and statistical maneuvers planned for the mission. The spacecraft is three axis stabilized and has unbalanced thrusters for attitude control. Accelerations due to the attitude control system are treated stochastically. The tracking scenario for the study is patterned after the actual schedule employed during the different phases of the mission. Conventional X-band two-way Doppler and SRA range data was simulated and the standard accuracy for these data types was assumed throughout most of the mission. However, a deweighting scheme was used for the Doppler data during times of low Sun-Earth-Probe angles, especially in the case of the DSM. Optical data is assumed to be available starting at 50 days prior to the comet encounter. The optical data will be used to improve the ephemeris of Wild-2, which is considered crucial to properly target the comet flyby. Results of the covariance analysis are presented for all mission phases. Navigation capability will be discussed in terms of the uncertainty in the encounter B-Plane (B.R and B.T) and linearized time of flight. Delivery errors based on the final maneuver prior to the comet encounter will be presented. The most stringent navigation requirement is for the Earth reentry. The uncertainty in the flight path angle must be less than 0.02 degree (orbit determination and maneuver performance) to assure successful recovery of the SRC. Results presented show that this requirement can be met.

Menon, Premkumar R.↗

Observations on Cost Modeling and Performance Measurement of Long Term Archives

This paper describes a prototype suite of Excel-based tools that could be used for estimating lifecycle costs for newly planned or modified long-term archival facilities. These tools may also prove valuable for monitoring the long-term performance of such facilities once operational. Cost estimation is by analogy, using statistical curve-fitting techniques across a database of comparable data activities. The database currently includes 29 operational data centers ranging from small (2 FTEs) to large (66 FTEs), and is readily expandable to include additional activities specifically involving data preservation and added value. Each comparable data center is described in terms of its staffing, throughput workload, archival and distribution requirements, levels of user service, overall complexity, degree of automation, and other data, comprising 94 distinct descriptors in all. The descriptors were developed by normalizing heterogeneous data from the various centers and mapping them into an Excel framework consistent with the OAIS reference model. A user-friendly tool is provided for generating input to and updating the comparables database. This tool can also be used to benchmark the performance (in terms of cost versus throughput) of an operational data center, and to update the staffing, cost and workload data on a periodic basis. The comparables database could thus provide a history of staffing and throughput over time, as a means of performance monitoring and providing feedback for continuous improvement. Ancillary tools are also provided for performing "what-if' cost exercises for planning purposes, and for graphical display of data and results. We provide a high-level description of the tools; present our experiences and observations on gathering the information and maintaining the database; and discuss how this tool set might be applied to long term archives.

Fontaine, Kathy↗

Strategy Developed for Selecting Optimal Sensors for Monitoring Engine Health

Sensor indications during rocket engine operation are the primary means of assessing engine performance and health. Effective selection and location of sensors in the operating engine environment enables accurate real-time condition monitoring and rapid engine controller response to mitigate critical fault conditions. These capabilities are crucial to ensure crew safety and mission success. Effective sensor selection also facilitates postflight condition assessment, which contributes to efficient engine maintenance and reduced operating costs. Under the Next Generation Launch Technology program, the NASA Glenn Research Center, in partnership with Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power, has developed a model-based procedure for systematically selecting an optimal sensor suite for assessing rocket engine system health. This optimization process is termed the systematic sensor selection strategy. Engine health management (EHM) systems generally employ multiple diagnostic procedures including data validation, anomaly detection, fault-isolation, and information fusion. The effectiveness of each diagnostic component is affected by the quality, availability, and compatibility of sensor data. Therefore systematic sensor selection is an enabling technology for EHM. Information in three categories is required by the systematic sensor selection strategy. The first category consists of targeted engine fault information; including the description and estimated risk-reduction factor for each identified fault. Risk-reduction factors are used to define and rank the potential merit of timely fault diagnoses. The second category is composed of candidate sensor information; including type, location, and estimated variance in normal operation. The final category includes the definition of fault scenarios characteristic of each targeted engine fault. These scenarios are defined in terms of engine model hardware parameters. Values of these parameters define engine simulations that generate expected sensor values for targeted fault scenarios. Taken together, this information provides an efficient condensation of the engineering experience and engine flow physics needed for sensor selection. The systematic sensor selection strategy is composed of three primary algorithms. The core of the selection process is a genetic algorithm that iteratively improves a defined quality measure of selected sensor suites. A merit algorithm is employed to compute the quality measure for each test sensor suite presented by the selection process. The quality measure is based on the fidelity of fault detection and the level of fault source discrimination provided by the test sensor suite. An inverse engine model, whose function is to derive hardware performance parameters from sensor data, is an integral part of the merit algorithm. The final component is a statistical evaluation algorithm that characterizes the impact of interference effects, such as control-induced sensor variation and sensor noise, on the probability of fault detection and isolation for optimal and near-optimal sensor suites.

Source record↗

Making Macroscopic Assemblies of Aligned Carbon Nanotubes

A method of aligning and assembling single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) to fabricate macroscopic structures has been invented. The method entails suspending SWNTs in a fluid, orienting the SWNTs by use of a magnetic and/or electric field, and then removing the aligned SWNTs from suspension in such a way as to assemble them while maintaining the alignment. SWNTs are essentially tubular extensions of fullerene molecules. It is desirable to assemble aligned SWNTs into macroscopic structures because the common alignment of the SWNTs in such a structure makes it possible to exploit, on a macroscopic scale, the unique mechanical, chemical, and electrical properties that individual oriented SWNTs exhibit at the molecular level. Because of their small size and high electrical conductivity, carbon nanotubes, and especially SWNTs, are useful for making electrical connectors in integrated circuits. Carbon nanotubes can be used as antennas at optical frequencies, and as probes in scanning tunneling microscopes, atomic-force microscopes, and the like. Carbon nanotubes can be used with or instead of carbon black in tires. Carbon nanotubes are useful as supports for catalysts. Ropes of SWNTs are metallic and, as such, are potentially useful in some applications in which electrical conductors are needed - for example, they could be used as additives in formulating electrically conductive paints. Finally, macroscopic assemblies of aligned SWNTs can serve as templates for the growth of more and larger structures of the same type. The great variety of tubular fullerene molecules and of the structures that could be formed by assembling them in various ways precludes a complete description of the present method within the limits of this article. It must suffice to present a typical example of the use of one of many possible variants of the method to form a membrane comprising SWNTs aligned substantially parallel to each other in the membrane plane. The apparatus used in this variant of the method (see figure) includes a reservoir containing SWNTs dispersed in a suspending agent (for example, dimethylformamide) and a reservoir containing a suitable solvent (for example, water mixed with a surfactant). By use of either pressurized gas supplied from upstream or suction from downstream, the suspension of SWNTs and the solvent are forced to mix and flow into a tank. A filter inside the tank contains pores small enough to prevent the passage of most SWNTs, but large enough to allow the passage of molecules of the solvent and suspending agent. The filter is oriented perpendicular to the flow path. A magnetic field parallel to the plane of the filter is applied. The success of the method is based on the tendency of SWNTs to become aligned with their longitudinal axes parallel to an applied magnetic field. The alignment energy of an SWNT increases with the length of the SWNT and the magnetic-field strength. In order to obtain an acceptably small degree of statistical deviation of SWNTs of a given length from alignment with a magnetic field, one must make the field strong enough so that the thermal energy associated with rotation of an SWNT away from alignment is less than the alignment energy.

Smalley, Richard E.↗

Quantitative Daily Maps of PM 2.5 Episodes for California and Other Regions: Satellite Column Water and Optical Depth as Allied Tracers of Dilution

The Western US and many regions globally present daunting difficulties in understanding PM 2.5 episodes. We evaluate extensions of a method independent of modeled source-description and transport/transformation and using several satellite remote sensing products from imaging spectrometers. The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) especially suffers few-day episodes due to shallow mixing; PM 2.5 retrieval suffers low satellite AOT (Aerosol Optical Thickness) and bright surfaces.Nevertheless, we find residual errors in our maps of of typically 5-8 micrograms per cubic meter. Episodes in the Valley reaching 60-100 micrograms per cubic meter. These maps detail pollution from Interstate 5 at the scale of a few kilometers. The maps are based on NASA's MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data at circa 1 kilometer as processed with the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District has requested that we test our methods in their challenging environment characterized by multiple sub-basins defined by complex topography. Our tests suggest that nearly similar precision may be expected for wintertime conditions with high PM 2.5 . We note difficulties when measured PM 2.5 is less than 8-10 micrograms per cubic meter, but good relative precision when PM 2.5 rises above 20; i.e. in episodes of concern for morbidity and mortality. Our method stresses physically meaningful functions of MODIS-MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction)-derived AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) and total water vapor column. A mixed-effects statistical model exploiting existing station data works powerfully to allow us daily AOT-to-PM 2.5 relationships that allow a calibration of the map. In those cases where water vapor and particles have generally similar surface sources, using the ratio of AOT / Column_water can improve the daily calibrations so as to reach our quoted precision. We briefly present some cartoon idealizations that explain this success and also the likely reasons that our mixed effects model (or "daily calibration") works; also when it should not work. The combined satellite/mixed-effects model works best for wintertime San Joaquin Valley episodes, where the meteorology of particle and H2O(v) dilution is quite appropriate. We extended and tested the methodology (a) for the Bay Area wintertime situations and (b) for smoke plume events (e.g. the October 2017 fire events of the Sonoma area). Our SJV work was evaluated using NASA's DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) airborne measurements, and by season- long measurements in Fresno. If the composition and size distribution of the aerosols can be assessed for the regions we describe, retrievals should have improved accuracy.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for placing new batches of these satellites on orbit often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in high-eccentricity orbits that have the potential to transect other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are replaced and old ones are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have to future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of future realistic scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical scenarios, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and more. As the model is run forward in time, various statistics and meta-data are gathered on any predicted conjunction event, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, e.g., what size are the two satellites, who operates the satellites, are they active or passive objects, etc. Additional customization is available in terms of how probability of collision is computed, and how the probability ellipsoids and screening volumes are determined. The simulation tool also allows for rule-based maneuvers for active satellites, e.g, given an advance conjunction “warning,” one or both of the satellites can maneuver to a safe distance. A wide range of maneuvers can be implemented using impulsive or low-thrust methods, and the latencies can also be varied, e.g., using maneuver lead times of 48 hours, 24 hours, or 12 hours. Validation of the simulation results is performed against current and historical datasets available, to include comparisons to prior conjunction data messages (CDMs), object properties (mass, volume, etc.), and two-line-element records from both public and internal sources. Using the simulation environment, an assessment on the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments will be presented. This will involve the simulation of approximately 50,000 new large constellation satellites, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 20,000 known resident space objects (RSOs), over propagation periods of one month to one year. A description of the simulation methodologies, scenarios evaluated, and validation methods will also be presented, as well as a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of several candidate maneuver strategies that have the potential to reduce collision risk between active satellites.

Brian Gunter↗

Improved Algorithms for Accurate Retrieval of UV - Visible Diffuse Attenuation Coefficients in Optically Complex, Inshore Waters

Photochemical processes driven by high-energy ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in inshore, estuarine, and coastal waters play an important role in global bio geochemical cycles and biological systems. A key to modeling photochemical processes in these optically complex waters is an accurate description of the vertical distribution of UVR in the water column which can be obtained using the diffuse attenuation coefficients of down welling irradiance (Kd()). The Sea UV Sea UVc algorithms (Fichot et al., 2008) can accurately retrieve Kd ( 320, 340, 380,412, 443 and 490 nm) in oceanic and coastal waters using multispectral remote sensing reflectances (Rrs(), Sea WiFS bands). However, SeaUVSeaUVc algorithms are currently not optimized for use in optically complex, inshore waters, where they tend to severely underestimate Kd(). Here, a new training data set of optical properties collected in optically complex, inshore waters was used to re-parameterize the published SeaUVSeaUVc algorithms, resulting in improved Kd() retrievals for turbid, estuarine waters. Although the updated SeaUVSeaUVc algorithms perform best in optically complex waters, the published SeaUVSeaUVc models still perform well in most coastal and oceanic waters. Therefore, we propose a composite set of SeaUVSeaUVc algorithms, optimized for Kd() retrieval in almost all marine systems, ranging from oceanic to inshore waters. The composite algorithm set can retrieve Kd from ocean color with good accuracy across this wide range of water types (e.g., within 13 mean relative error for Kd(340)). A validation step using three independent, in situ data sets indicates that the composite SeaUVSeaUVc can generate accurate Kd values from 320 490 nm using satellite imagery on a global scale. Taking advantage of the inherent benefits of our statistical methods, we pooled the validation data with the training set, obtaining an optimized composite model for estimating Kd() in UV wavelengths for almost all marine waters. This optimized composite set of SeaUVSeaUVc algorithms will provide the optical community with improved ability to quantify the role of solar UV radiation in photochemical and photobiological processes in the ocean.

UV↗

The mosaic structure of plasma bulk flows in the Earth's magnetotail

Moments of plasma distributions observed in the magnetotail vary with different time scales. In this paper we attempt to explain the observed variability on intermediate timescales of approximately 10-20 min that result from the simultaneous energization and spatial structuring of solar wind plasma in the distant magnetotail. These processes stimulate the formation of a system of spatially disjointed. highly accelerated filaments (beamlets) in the tail. We use the results from large-scale kinetic modeling of magnetotail formation from a plasma mantle source to calculate moments of ion distribution functions throughout the tail. Statistical restrictions related to the limited number of particles in our system naturally reduce the spatial resolution of our results, but we show that our model is valid on intermediate spatial scales Delta(x) x Delta(z) equal to approximately 1 R(sub E) x 1000 km. For these spatial scales the resulting pattern, which resembles a mosaic, appears to be quite variable. The complexity of the pattern is related to the spatial interference between beamlets accelerated at various locations within the distant tail which mirror in the strong near-Earth magnetic field. Global motion of the magnetotail results in the displacement of spacecraft with respect to this mosaic pattern and can produce variations in all of the moments (especially the x-component of the bulk velocity) on intermediate timescales. The results obtained enable us to view the magnetotail plasma as consisting of two different populations: a tailward-Earthward system of highly accelerated beamlets interfering with each other, and an energized quasithermal population which gradually builds as the Earth is approached. In the near-Earth tail, these populations merge into a hot quasi-isotropic ion population typical of the near-Earth plasma sheet. The transformation of plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) beam energy into central plasma sheet (CPS) quasi-thermal energy occurs in the absence of collisions or noise. This paper also clarifies the relationship between the global scale where an MHD description might be appropriate and the lower intermediate scales where MHD fails and large-scale kinetic theory should be used.

Ashour-Abdalla, M.↗

A New Statistical Estimate of the Radar Coverage of the Low Earth Orbit Debris Environment

For over three decades, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar, Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), and Haystack Auxiliary (HAX) radar assets to collect data on the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment. Each radar, with its unique beamwidth, altitude and inclination coverage, and limiting size threshold, operates in a beam park mode to statistically sample the orbital debris population in LEO. Provided that these assets are shared with other users, the orbital debris data collection is not continuous; rather, intermittent data collects are acquired and sent to the NASA ODPO. To understand the sampling process conducted by each radar over time and any related observational biases, a Statistical Confirmation of Radar Uniformity or Bias (SCRUB) code has been implemented to model the coverage of these assets for informing future operations, as well as usage of the data collected from these ground-based sensors. For this analysis, Right Ascension of the Ascending Node (RAAN) is used as a metric to measure statistical coverage. A complete survey of the LEO environment is understood to be measurements that sufficiently sample all values of RAAN for each altitude-inclination pair visible from the radar asset. Regions of incompleteness or statistical bias can help inform future observation campaigns. The SCRUB tool evaluates the coverage of the LEO environment, not by examining individual objects that may pass through a sensor’s field of view (FOV), but by determining which orbit planes pass through the FOV. Once a pointing geometry for a radar site, observation time, and range extent are configured by the user, SCRUB computes the inclinations and altitudes that are visible by the sensor. For each inclination-altitude pair, there is a distinct pair of possible RAAN values, corresponding to the ascending and descending orbit passing through that point in the sensor cone. Repeating this process for all points in the beam, and for multiple time periods during an observation window, creates a matrix of all inclination-altitude-RAAN combinations that are visible during a sensor run. This process can then be repeated for all observations within a year (for an annual survey), propagating all the RAAN values to a common epoch, typically the start of a calendar year, and combining the observations to assemble a full estimate of the RAAN coverage of the LEO environment. This RAAN coverage can then be analyzed for uniformity of sampling, within a certain inclination-altitude pair, or between larger regions of the space environment. This paper provides a general overview of the radar assets utilized by ODPO, typical analysis data products assuming circular orbits, and a discussion of the algorithms that feed between modeling and measurement operations. Following the description of the algorithm, estimates of coverage using HUSIR radar data collected from multiple years are developed and compared.

Chris L Ostrom↗

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

Barker, Edwin S.↗