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At least 451 records · Page 25

Validation Of The Airspace Concept Evaluation System Using Real World Data

This paper discusses the process of performing a validation of the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) using real world historical flight operational data. ACES inputs are generated from select real world data and processed to create a realistic reproduction of a single day of operations within the National Airspace System (NAS). ACES outputs are then compared to real world operational metrics and delay statistics for the reproduced day. Preliminary results indicate that ACES produces delays and airport operational metrics similar to the real world with minor variations of delay by phase of flight. ACES is a nation-wide fast-time simulation tool developed at NASA Ames Research Center. ACES models and simulates the NAS using interacting agents representing center control, terminal flow management, airports, individual flights, and other NAS elements. These agents pass messages between one another similar to real world communications. This distributed agent based system is designed to emulate the highly unpredictable nature of the NAS, making it a suitable tool to evaluate current and envisioned airspace concepts. To ensure that ACES produces the most realistic results, the system must be validated. There is no way to validate future concepts scenarios using real world historical data, but current day scenario validations increase confidence in the validity of future scenario results. Each operational day has unique weather and traffic demand schedules. The more a simulation utilizes the unique characteristic of a specific day, the more realistic the results should be. ACES is able to simulate the full scale demand traffic necessary to perform a validation using real world data. Through direct comparison with the real world, models may continuee to be improved and unusual trends and biases may be filtered out of the system or used to normalize the results of future concept simulations.

Zelinski, Shannon↗

A Modeling Approach for Handling Qualities and Controls Safety Analysis of Electric Air Taxi Vehicles

The combination of modern advances in electric propulsion, fly-by-wire controls, autonomy, and increasing demand for short range air taxi operations, is currently producing an outburst of vehicle designs more diverse than ever before. Advanced software tools are needed to support the rapid and safe introduction of any design into the airspace, including the safety of the deployed flight control system and vehicle handling qualities. This paper presents a methodology for building air taxi vehicle models with distributed electric propulsion for use in analyzing flight control system safety at the conceptual design level.The approach builds on existing software tools capable of outputting aeromechanics-based linear perturbation models for Vertical Take-off and Landing vehicles with multiple rotors. Rotor torque inputs are then converted into equivalent voltage control inputs, and the linear state and input dynamics matrices are modified to include electric motor dynamics with common parameters for direct-current electric motors. The linear perturbation dynamics are then stitched across multiple operating points into a quasi-Linear Parameter Varying model that covers the full flight envelope. A Model Predictive Controller is developed for use with the full envelope model, and a tradeoff analysis between handling quality and motor requirements is demonstrated using a six passenger NASA air taxi reference design.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of < or = -1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of > or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.

moisture↗

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below-normal precipitation and terminated by average or above-normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming-driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

drought↗

High Speed Mobility Through On-Demand Aviation

Game changing advances come about by the introduction of new technologies at a time when societal needs create the opportunity for new market solutions. A unique opportunity exists for NASA to bring about such a mobility revolution in General Aviation, extendable to other aviation markets, to maintain leadership in aviation by the United States. This report outlines the research carried out so far under NASA's leadership towards developing a new mobility choice, called Zip Aviation1,2,3. The feasibility, technology and system gaps that need to be addressed, and pathways for successful implementation have been investigated to guide future investment. The past decade indicates exciting trends in transportation technologies, which are quickly evolving. Automobiles are embracing automation to ease driver tasks as well as to completely control the vehicle with added safety (Figure 1). Electric propulsion is providing zero tail-pipe emission vehicles with dramatically lower energy and maintenance costs. These technologies have not yet been applied to aviation, yet offer compelling potential benefits across all aviation markets, and in particular to General Aviation (GA) as an early adopter market. The benefits of such an adoption are applicable in the following areas: 􀁸 Safety: The GA market experiences accident rates that are substantially higher than automobiles or commercial airlines, with 7.5 fatal accidents per 100 million vehicle miles compared to 1.3 for automobiles and.068 for airlines. Approximately 80% of these accidents are caused by some form of pilot error, with another 13% caused by single point propulsion system failure. 􀁸 Emissions: Environmental constraints are pushing for the elimination of 100Low Lead (LL) fuel used in most GA aircraft, with aviation fuel the #1 source of lead emissions into the environment. Aircraft also have no emission control systems (i.e. no catalytic converters etc.), so they are gross hydrocarbon polluters compared to automobiles. 􀁸 Community Noise: Hub and smaller GA airports are facing increasing noise restrictions, and while commercial airliners have dramatically decreased their community noise footprint over the past 30 years, GA aircraft noise has essentially remained same, and moreover, is located in closer proximity to neighborhoods and businesses. 􀁸 Operating Costs: GA operating costs have risen dramatically due to average fuel costs of over $6 per gallon, which has constrained the market over the past decade and resulted in more than 50% lower sales and 35% less yearly operations. Infusion of autonomy and electric propulsion technologies can accomplish not only a transformation of the GA market, but also provide a technology enablement bridge for both larger aircraft and the emerging civil Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) markets. The NASA Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) project successfully used a similar approach to enable the introduction of primary composite structures and flat panel displays in the 1990s, establishing both the technology and certification standardization to permit quick adoption through partnerships with industry, academia, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Regional and airliner markets are experiencing constant pressure to achieve decreasing levels of community emissions and noise, while lowering operating costs and improving safety. But to what degree can these new technology frontiers impact aircraft safety, the environment, operations, cost, and performance? Are the benefits transformational enough to fundamentally alter aircraft competiveness and productivity to permit much greater aviation use for high speed and On-Demand Mobility (ODM)? These questions were asked in a Zip aviation system study named after the Zip Car, an emerging car-sharing business model. Zip Aviation investigates the potential to enable new emergent markets for aviation that offer "more flexibility than the existing transportation solutions." These studies indicate that autonomy and electric propulsion technology infusions offer a unique opportunity to provide breakthrough capabilities for new high speed, on-demand travel alternatives that can leapfrog the need for future expensive ground-based infrastructure investment. At the same time, such investments offer a method of laying the foundation for these technologies to be incubated for commercial aviation at lower cost, and with lower initial certification thresholds due to the relatively poor capabilities of GA aircraft to permit early adoption and private market capitalization by rapid technology accelerations, as depicted in Figure 2.

Moore, Mark D.↗

Runway configuration improvement programming model.

The basic objectives of the study were to subject a set of runway configurations to cost analysis and to develop a dynamic programming model which would enable an airport to economically match the ground capacity to its air traffic demand. Quantitative differences in the capacity of runway configurations result from the various aircraft/aircraft and aircraft/air-system interactions. A problem formulation and solution procedure is presented which is intended to be a meaningful technique for the long-range planning of runway expansion programs.

Yu, J. C.↗

Energy requirement for the production of silicon solar arrays

An assessment of potential changes and alternative technologies which could impact the photovoltaic manufacturing process is presented. Topics discussed include: a multiple wire saw, ribbon growth techniques, silicon casting, and a computer model for a large-scale solar power plant. Emphasis is placed on reducing the energy demands of the manufacturing process.

Lindmayer, J.↗

Geometrically nonlinear analysis of layered composite plates and shells

A degenerated three dimensional finite element, based on the incremental total Lagrangian formulation of a three dimensional layered anisotropic medium was developed. Its use in the geometrically nonlinear, static and dynamic, analysis of layered composite plates and shells is demonstrated. A two dimenisonal finite element based on the Sanders shell theory with the von Karman (nonlinear) strains was developed. It is shown that the deflections obtained by the 2D shell element deviate from those obtained by the more accurate 3D element for deep shells. The 3D degenerated element can be used to model general shells that are not necessarily doubly curved. The 3D degenerated element is computationally more demanding than the 2D shell theory element for a given problem. It is found that the 3D element is an efficient element for the analysis of layered composite plates and shells undergoing large displacements and transient motion.

Chao, W. C.↗

On the geographical correlation of orbit error

The orbit accuracies needed to support the global crustal dynamics project and recent satellite altimeter missions have placed unique demands on the data analysis and orbit analysis systems. These demands include accurate and well distributed observations, improved computational techniques and substantial enhancements in the force models which represent the satellite's motion. For example, the satellite altimeter mission (TOPEX), whose objectives will be: (1) to measure the time variable ocean surface topography, and (2) to demonstrate the ability to map the general ocean circulation, requires that the radial component of the satellite's orbit be known with an rms accuracy of 13 cm for the three year mission lifetime. The primary force model uncertainty which limits the contemporary orbit computation accuracy is the inaccuracy in the values assigned to the spherical harmonic coefficients used to model the Earth's gravity field.

Tapley, B. D.↗

A disturbance of the ion tail of Comet Halley and the heliospheric structure as observed by Sakigake

In order to study the interaction between the solar wind measured by Sakigake and ion tail disturbances of comet Halley, more than 500 photographs of the comet taken on the ground during this apparition are surveyed. The focus of the present study is the December 31, 1985, event, when various types of disturbances occurred, including an outstanding disconnection event (DE)-like knot. Analysis of the Sakigake/IMF data reveals that comet Halley did not encounter the heliospheric neutral sheet on that day, demanding a new explanation for the DE-like event, different from the Niedner-Brandt model. During this event the comet encountered a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole tongue of the sun. The event can be explained by a dynamic pressure model, according to which the DE-like plasmoid was caused by a sudden increase in the dynamic pressure of the solar wind. A result of the simulation work by Ogino is found to support this interpretation.

Saito, T.↗

Automated clustering-based workload characterization

The demands placed on the mass storage systems at various federal agencies and national laboratories are continuously increasing in intensity. This forces system managers to constantly monitor the system, evaluate the demand placed on it, and tune it appropriately using either heuristics based on experience or analytic models. Performance models require an accurate workload characterization. This can be a laborious and time consuming process. It became evident from our experience that a tool is necessary to automate the workload characterization process. This paper presents the design and discusses the implementation of a tool for workload characterization of mass storage systems. The main features of the tool discussed here are: (1)Automatic support for peak-period determination. Histograms of system activity are generated and presented to the user for peak-period determination; (2) Automatic clustering analysis. The data collected from the mass storage system logs is clustered using clustering algorithms and tightness measures to limit the number of generated clusters; (3) Reporting of varied file statistics. The tool computes several statistics on file sizes such as average, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, frequency, as well as average transfer time. These statistics are given on a per cluster basis; (4) Portability. The tool can easily be used to characterize the workload in mass storage systems of different vendors. The user needs to specify through a simple log description language how the a specific log should be interpreted. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section two presents basic concepts in workload characterization as they apply to mass storage systems. Section three describes clustering algorithms and tightness measures. The following section presents the architecture of the tool. Section five presents some results of workload characterization using the tool.Finally, section six presents some concluding remarks.

Pentakalos, Odysseas I.↗

Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Investment Model-Cargo

The purpose of the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Air Cargo Investment Model-Cargo (ACIMC), is to examine the economic effects of technology investment on the air cargo market, particularly the market for new cargo aircraft. To do so, we have built an econometrically based model designed to operate like the ACIM. Two main drivers account for virtually all of the demand: the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and changes in the fare yield (which is a proxy of the price charged or fare). These differences arise from a combination of the nature of air cargo demand and the peculiarities of the air cargo market. The net effect of these two factors are that sales of new cargo aircraft are much less sensitive to either increases in GDP or changes in the costs of labor, capital, fuel, materials, and energy associated with the production of new cargo aircraft than the sales of new passenger aircraft. This in conjunction with the relatively small size of the cargo aircraft market means technology improvements to the cargo aircraft will do relatively very little to spur increased sales of new cargo aircraft.

Johnson, Jesse↗

International Space Station Power System Model Validated

System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) is a computer model of the International Space Station's (ISS) Electric Power System (EPS) developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This uniquely integrated, detailed model can predict EPS capability, assess EPS performance during a given mission with a specified load demand, conduct what-if studies, and support on-orbit anomaly resolution.

Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.↗

Factors Influencing Scanning for Alerts

Aircraft pilots (like operators in many domains) are required to monitor locations for rare events, while concurrently performing their everyday tasks. In many cases, the visual parameters of the alert are such that it is not visible unless directly fixated. For this reason, critical alerts should be designed to be visible in peripheral vision and/or augmented by an audio alarm. We use the term "conspicuity" to distinguish the attention-getting power of a visual stimulus from simple visibility in a single-task context. We have measured conspicuity in an experimental paradigm designed to test the N-SEEV model of attention and noticing (Steelman-Allen et al., HFES 2009). The subject performed a demanding central task while monitoring four peripheral locations for color change events. Visibility of the alerting stimuli was measured separately in a control experiment in which the subject maintained steady fixation without the central task. Thresholds in the dual-task experiments were lower than would be expected based on the results of the control experiment, due to the fact that the subjects actively sampled the alert locations with fixations while performing the central task. Locations of high-frequency alerts are generally sampled more often than locations of low-frequency alerts, and alert location sampling in general increases with practice, presumably because the demands of the central task are reduced.

Mulligan, Jeffrey B.↗

Extreme Lows of Wheat Production in Brazil

Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger.

Brazil↗

SimUAM: A Comprehensive Microsimulation Toolchain to Evaluate the Impact of Urban Air Mobility in Metropolitan Areas

Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network? and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, the authors develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA): A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: Agranular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian simulator, (3) Flexible Engine for Fast-time Evaluation of Flight Environments (Fe3): A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. Once the ground-air interface is modeled, the authors find that the market for UAM decreases across all network designs relative to models with static assumptions about transfer times. However, significant improvements can be made to balance the demand and optimize the networks for transfer time, likely increasing the number of benefited trips. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool.

urban air mobility↗

Life sciences research in space: The requirement for animal models

Use of animals in NASA space programs is reviewed. Animals are needed because life science experimentation frequently requires long-term controlled exposure to environments, statistical validation, invasive instrumentation or biological tissue sampling, tissue destruction, exposure to dangerous or unknown agents, or sacrifice of the subject. The availability and use of human subjects inflight is complicated by the multiple needs and demands upon crew time. Because only living organisms can sense, integrate and respond to the environment around them, the sole use of tissue culture and computer models is insufficient for understanding the influence of the space environment on intact organisms. Equipment for spaceborne experiments with animals is described.

Fuller, C. A.↗

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗