Results for “decision model” — Page 25

NASA NTRS2014

Range-Specific High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup: Data Assimilation

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, and ground processing at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. Some of these other boundaries include the Indian River breeze front, Banana River breeze front, outflows from previous convection, horizontal convective rolls, convergence lines from other inland bodies of water such as Lake Okeechobee, the trailing convergence line from convergence of sea breeze fronts due to the shape of Cape Canaveral, frictional convergence lines from the islands in the Bahamas, convergence lines from soil moisture differences, convergence lines from cloud shading, and others. All these subtle weak boundary interactions often make forecasting of operationally important weather very difficult at KSC/CCAFS during the convective season (May-Oct). These convective processes often build quickly, last a short time (60 minutes or less), and occur over small distances, all of which also poses a significant challenge to the local forecasters who are responsible for issuing weather advisories, watches, and warnings. Surface winds during the transition seasons of spring and fall pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to aid in their decision making. Both the ER and WFF would benefit greatly from high-resolution mesoscale model output to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. This task is a multi-year effort in which the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) will tune the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model individually for each range. The goal of the first year, the results of which are in this report, was to tune the WRF model based on the best model resolution and run time while using reasonable computing capabilities. To accomplish this, the ER and WFF supported the tasking of the AMU to perform a number of sensitivity tests in order to determine the best model configuration for operational use at each of the ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature (Watson 2013). This task is a continuation of that work and will provide a recommended local data assimilation (DA) and numerical forecast model design optimized for the ER and WFF to support space launch activities. The model will be optimized for local weather challenges at both ranges.

Global and national scale models↗

NASA NTRS2018

Status Report on Aeroelasticity in the Vehicle Development for X-57 Maxwell

Risk reduction is the objective of the X-57 Maxwell aeroelasticity team. The X-57, NASA’s experimental electric propulsion aircraft, has a long thin wing with primary propulsion systems located at the wing tips and high lift motors distributed along the span. Many of the classical aeroelastic concerns associated with such a configuration were addressed through early design decisions. The as-designed intermediate flight vehicle configurations show flutter mechanisms associated with flexible models of control surface systems –the stabilator, flaps and ailerons. Improvements to the analytical models, based on ground test data and project decisions about flight operations, show improved prospects of the vehicle being aeroelastically stable throughout the flight envelope. On-going ground testing and further analyses will lend credibility to the flutter predictions and vehicle safety.

Heeg, Jennifer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

QuantifyML: How good is my machine learning model?

This paper presents an approach, QuantifyML, which employs model counting to assess the learnability and robustness of machine learning models. Typically the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test data sets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. Further, two different models may have the same accuracy on a given data set, measured statistically, but may be very different in their behavior on unseen data. Also, models with high accuracy could have poor adversarial robustness. In QuantifyML, our goal is to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into a C program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise counts w.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, expressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the robustness of trained models around given inputs. Our evaluation demonstrates these applications of QuantifyML on decision trees and neural networks trained to learn relational properties of graphs, for which we know the ground truth, and to perform image classification, for which we do not have the ground truth, but we can quantify local robustness.

Deep Neural Networks↗

NASA NTRS2016

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems↗

NASA NTRS1972

Binaural signal detection - Equalization and cancellation theory.

The improvement in masked-signal detection afforded by two ears (i.e., binaural unmasking) is explained on the basis of a descriptive model of the processing of binaural stimuli by a system consisting of two bandpass filters, an equalization and cancellation mechanism, and a decision device. The main ideas of the model are initially explained, and a general equation is derived for the purpose of making quantitative predictions. Comparisons are then made between various special cases of this equation and experimental data. Failures of the preliminary model in predicting the data are considered, and possible revisions are discussed.

Durlach, N. I.↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Downscaling Project: Final Report

A team of researchers from NASA Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Marshall Space Flight Center, along with university partners at UCLA, conducted an investigation to explore whether downscaling coarse resolution global climate model (GCM) predictions might provide valid insights into the regional impacts sought by decision makers. Since the computational cost of running global models at high spatial resolution for any useful climate scale period is prohibitive, the hope for downscaling is that a coarse resolution GCM provides sufficiently accurate synoptic scale information for a regional climate model (RCM) to accurately develop fine scale features that represent the regional impacts of a changing climate. As a proxy for a prognostic climate forecast model, and so that ground truth in the form of satellite and in-situ observations could be used for evaluation, the MERRA and MERRA - 2 reanalyses were used to drive the NU - WRF regional climate model and a GEOS - 5 replay. This was performed at various resolutions that were at factors of 2 to 10 higher than the reanalysis forcing. A number of experiments were conducted that varied resolution, model parameterizations, and intermediate scale nudging, for simulations over the continental US during the period from 2000 - 2010. The results of these experiments were compared to observational datasets to evaluate the output.

dynamical downsizing↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Downscaling Project

A team of researchers from NASA Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Marshall Space Flight Center, along with university partners at UCLA, conducted an investigation to explore whether downscaling coarse resolution global climate model (GCM) predictions might provide valid insights into the regional impacts sought by decision makers. Since the computational cost of running global models at high spatial resolution for any useful climate scale period is prohibitive, the hope for downscaling is that a coarse resolution GCM provides sufficiently accurate synoptic scale information for a regional climate model (RCM) to accurately develop fine scale features that represent the regional impacts of a changing climate. As a proxy for a prognostic climate forecast model, and so that ground truth in the form of satellite and in-situ observations could be used for evaluation, the MERRA and MERRA-2 reanalyses were used to drive the NU-WRF regional climate model and a GEOS-5 replay. This was performed at various resolutions that were at factors of 2 to 10 higher than the reanalysis forcing. A number of experiments were conducted that varied resolution, model parameterizations, and intermediate scale nudging, for simulations over the continental US during the period from 2000-2010. The results of these experiments were compared to observational datasets to evaluate the output.

Ferraro, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1977

Development of a research project selection model: Application to a civil helicopter research program

A model is described for planning and decision making in research project selection. Evaluations of each project's direct and indirect benefits, uncertainty in achieving these benefits, and schedule priority with resource budget and program balance constraints are considered. The combination of the interactive effect of project selection, resource allocation and scheduling considerations into one model permits tradeoff alternatives to be studied. Clients' value judgments are used in evaluating the benefits from each proposed project. The model is applied to the NASA Civil Helicopter Technology Program. Research project priorities for this program are established, strengths and weaknesses of the model are discussed, and areas of future development are recommended.

Schoultz, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Improved representation of agricultural land use and crop management for large-scale hydrological impact simulation in Africa using SWAT+

To date, most regional and global hydrological models either ignore the representation of cropland or consider crop cultivation in a simplistic way or in abstract terms without any management practices. Yet, the water balance of cultivated areas is strongly influenced by applied management practices (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization, and harvesting). The SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model represents agricultural land by default in a generic way, where the start of the cropping season is driven by accumulated heat units. However, this approach does not work for tropical and subtropical regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where crop growth dynamics are mainly controlled by rainfall rather than temperature. In this study, we present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated croplands with the associated cropping calendar and fertilizer applications in a regional SWAT+ model for northeastern Africa. We evaluate the influence of the crop phenology representation on simulations of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) using LAI remote sensing data from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) and WaPOR (Water Productivity through Open access of Remotely sensed derived data) ET data, respectively. Results show that a representation of crop phenology using global datasets leads to improved temporal patterns of LAI and ET simulations, especially for regions with a single cropping cycle. However, for regions with multiple cropping seasons, global phenology datasets need to be complemented with local data or remote sensing data to capture additional cropping seasons. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates, as the timing of crop cover controls erosion rates in the model. With more realistic growing seasons, soil erosion is largely reduced for most agricultural hydrologic response units (HRUs), which can be considered as a move towards substantial improvements over previous estimates. We conclude that regional and global hydrological models can benefit from improved representations of crop phenology and the associated management practices. Future work regarding the incorporation of multiple cropping seasons in global phenology data is needed to better represent cropping cycles in areas where they occur using regional to global hydrological models.

crop phenology↗

NASA NTRS1971

Crime prediction modeling

A study of techniques for the prediction of crime in the City of Los Angeles was conducted. Alternative approaches to crime prediction (causal, quasicausal, associative, extrapolative, and pattern-recognition models) are discussed, as is the environment within which predictions were desired for the immediate application. The decision was made to use time series (extrapolative) models to produce the desired predictions. The characteristics of the data and the procedure used to choose equations for the extrapolations are discussed. The usefulness of different functional forms (constant, quadratic, and exponential forms) and of different parameter estimation techniques (multiple regression and multiple exponential smoothing) are compared, and the quality of the resultant predictions is assessed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2005

D-Side: A Facility and Workforce Planning Group Multi-criteria Decision Support System for Johnson Space Center

"To understand and protect our home planet, to explore the universe and search for life, and to inspire the next generation of explorers" is NASA's mission. The Systems Management Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is searching for methods to effectively manage the Center's resources to meet NASA's mission. D-Side is a group multi-criteria decision support system (GMDSS) developed to support facility decisions at JSC. D-Side uses a series of sequential and structured processes to plot facilities in a three-dimensional (3-D) graph on the basis of each facility alignment with NASA's mission and goals, the extent to which other facilities are dependent on the facility, and the dollar value of capital investments that have been postponed at the facility relative to the facility replacement value. A similarity factor rank orders facilities based on their Euclidean distance from Ideal and Nadir points. These similarity factors are then used to allocate capital improvement resources across facilities. We also present a parallel model that can be used to support decisions concerning allocation of human resources investments across workforce units. Finally, we present results from a pilot study where 12 experienced facility managers from NASA used D-Side and the organization's current approach to rank order and allocate funds for capital improvement across 20 facilities. Users evaluated D-Side favorably in terms of ease of use, the quality of the decision-making process, decision quality, and overall value-added. Their evaluations of D-Side were significantly more favorable than their evaluations of the current approach. Keywords: NASA, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Decision Support System, AHP, Euclidean Distance, 3-D Modeling, Facility Planning, Workforce Planning.

Tavana, Madjid↗

NASA NTRS1992

Trial maneuver generation and selection in the paladin tactical decision generation system

To date, increased levels of maneuverability and controllability in aircraft have been postulated as tactically advantageous, but little research has studied maneuvers or tactics that make use of these capabilities. In order to help fill this void, a real-time tactical decision generation system for air combat engagements, Paladin, has been developed. Paladin models an air combat engagement as a series of discrete decisions. A detailed description of Paladin's decision making process is presented. This includes the sources of data used, methods of generating reasonable maneuvers for the Paladin aircraft, and selection criteria for choosing the 'best' maneuver. Simulation results are presented that show Paladin to be relatively insensitive to errors introduced into the decision process by estimation of future positional and geometric data.

Chappell, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Trial maneuver generation and selection in the Paladin tactical decision generation system

To date, increased levels of maneuverability and controllability in aircraft have been postulated as tactically advantageous, but little research has studied maneuvers or tactics that make use of these capabilities. In order to help fill this void, a real-time tactical decision generation system for air combat engagements, Paladin, has been developed. Paladin models an air combat engagement as a series of discrete decisions. A detailed description of Paladin's decision making process is presented. This includes the sources of data used, methods of generating reasonable maneuvers for the Paladin aircraft, and selection criteria for choosing the 'best' maneuver. Simulation results are presented that show Paladin to be relatively insensitive to errors introduced into the decision process by estimation of future positional and geometric data.

Chappell, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Trial Maneuver Generation and Selection in the Paladin Tactical Decision Generation System

To date, increased levels of maneuverability and controllability in aircraft have been postulated as tactically advantageous, but little research has studied maneuvers or tactics that make use of these capabilities. In order to help fill this void, a real time tactical decision generation system for air combat engagements, Paladin, has been developed. Paladin models an air combat engagement as a series of discrete decisions. A detailed description of Paladin's decision making process is presented. This includes the sources of data used, methods of generating reasonable maneuvers for the Paladin aircraft, and selection criteria for choosing the "best" maneuver. Simulation results are presented that show Paladin to be relatively insensitive to errors introduced into the decision process by estimation of future positional and geometric data.

Chappell, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

This study helps elucidate NASA’s future options for facilitating government-funded activities in the post-International Space Station (ISS) low-Earth orbit (LEO) ecosystem. NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. In light of this transition, NASA senior leadership tasked the Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) with answering two questions: 1) what are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms, and 2) in light of these options, what modifications would be helpful to make in the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership and the NASA management processes as NASA plans for the transition of the ISS by 2030? To answer the first question, we conducted a stakeholder-driven analysis to identify a trade space of six differentiated model options. We then evaluated their performance in three potential future scenarios, according to evaluation criteria deemed important to stakeholders. The six models are illustrative and representational of a potential trade space. Additionally, each model requires change to current legislation. To further aid in leadership decision-making, we provided considerations for how to strengthen each model by mixing and matching different model aspects. To answer the second question, we looked to strengths of the top-performing models to evolve the current ISSNL-CASIS relationship and improve NASA’s posture for success post-ISS. We identified four possible modifications to the ISSNL-CASIS partnership and NASA’s management of these activities. By implementing these modifications early, NASA can increase the return from ISSNL-CASIS and help prepare for future models as one or more CLD replaces the ISS by 2030.

ISS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

On any given day, traffic flow managers must often rely on past experience and intuition when developing traffic flow management initiatives that mitigate imbalances between the aircraft demand and the weather impacted airport capacity. The goal of this study was to build on recent efforts to apply data mining classification and clustering algorithms to vast archives of historical weather and air traffic data to identify patterns and past decisions that can ultimately inform day-of-operations decision-making. More specifically, this study identified similar weather impacted days at select U.S. airports, and analyzed the traffic management initiatives implemented on these representative days. The identification of the similar days was accomplished by applying a decision tree algorithm to the hourly Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the arrival delays for Newark Liberty International Airport. The branches from the trained decision tree were subsequently pruned to identify four weather conditions that resulted in medium to high delays for the arrivals scheduled to Newark in 2012. Using these weather conditions, four, daily airport-level Weather Impacted Traffic Index values were calculated using the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the 2012 scheduled arrival counts from the FAAs Aviation System Performance Metric system. The four, daily Weather Impacted Traffic Index values for 2012 were subsequently clustered using an Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm, and nine unique types of weather days at Newark were identified. By far the most prominent type of day at Newark was a day associated with relatively good weather conditions, where there was little convective activity, winds were low, ceilings and visibility were high and there was little precipitation. Moderate levels of convective activity characterized the next most prominent type of day. Days with persistently high winds or low ceiling and visibility levels were relatively rare in 2012. Lastly, the frequency at which Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops and Miles-in-Trail restrictions were implemented on each of the typical types of days at Newark were analyzed. Based on the results, it does appear as if the usage of Miles-in-Trail, Ground Delay Program and Ground Stop restrictions correlates well with the severity of the weather associated with each unique type of weather impacted day at Newark. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use historical weather and air traffic archives to provide guidance on the types of traffic management restrictions to implement in response to the weather conditions impacting an airport.

traffic flow management↗

NASA NTRS2014

Clustering Days with Similar Airport Weather Conditions

On any given day, traffic flow managers must often rely on past experience and intuition when developing traffic flow management initiatives that mitigate imbalances between the aircraft demand and the weather impacted airport capacity. The goal of this study was to build on recent efforts to apply data mining classification and clustering algorithms to vast archives of historical weather and air traffic data to identify patterns and past decisions that can ultimately inform day-of-operations decision-making. More specifically, this study identified similar weather impacted days at select U.S. airports, and analyzed the traffic management initiatives implemented on these representative days. The identification of the similar days was accomplished by applying a decision tree algorithm to the hourly Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the arrival delays for Newark Liberty International Airport. The branches from the trained decision tree were subsequently pruned to identify four weather conditions that resulted in medium to high delays for the arrivals scheduled to Newark in 2012. Using these weather conditions, four, daily airport-level Weather Impacted Traffic Index values were calculated using the Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program observations and the 2012 scheduled arrival counts from the FAAs Aviation System Performance Metric system. The four, daily Weather Impacted Traffic Index values for 2012 were subsequently clustered using an Expectation Maximization clustering algorithm, and nine unique types of weather days at Newark were identified. By far the most prominent type of day at Newark was a day associated with relatively good weather conditions, where there was little convective activity, winds were low, ceilings and visibility were high and there was little precipitation. Moderate levels of convective activity characterized the next most prominent type of day. Days with persistently high winds or low ceiling and visibility levels were relatively rare in 2012. Lastly, the frequency at which Ground Delay Programs, Ground Stops and Miles-in-Trail restrictions were implemented on each of the typical types of days at Newark were analyzed. Based on the results, it does appear as if the usage of Miles-in-Trail, Ground Delay Program and Ground Stop restrictions correlates well with the severity of the weather associated with each unique type of weather impacted day at Newark. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use historical weather and air traffic archives to provide guidance on the types of traffic management restrictions to implement in response to the weather conditions impacting an airport.

weather↗

NASA NTRS2007

Automated Target Planning for FUSE Using the SOVA Algorithm

The SOVA algorithm was originally developed under the Resilient Systems and Operations Project of the Engineering for Complex Systems Program from NASA s Aerospace Technology Enterprise as a conceptual framework to support real-time autonomous system mission and contingency management. The algorithm and its software implementation were formulated for generic application to autonomous flight vehicle systems, and its efficacy was demonstrated by simulation within the problem domain of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle autonomous flight management. The approach itself is based upon the precept that autonomous decision making for a very complex system can be made tractable by distillation of the system state to a manageable set of strategic objectives (e.g. maintain power margin, maintain mission timeline, and et cetera), which if attended to, will result in a favorable outcome. From any given starting point, the attainability of the end-states resulting from a set of candidate decisions is assessed by propagating a system model forward in time while qualitatively mapping simulated states into margins on strategic objectives using fuzzy inference systems. The expected return value of each candidate decision is evaluated as the product of the assigned value of the end-state with the assessed attainability of the end-state. The candidate decision yielding the highest expected return value is selected for implementation; thus, the approach provides a software framework for intelligent autonomous risk management. The name adopted for the technique incorporates its essential elements: Strategic Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA). Maximum value of the approach is realized for systems where human intervention is unavailable in the timeframe within which critical control decisions must be made. The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite, launched in 1999, has been collecting science data for eight years.[1] At its beginning of life, FUSE had six gyros in two IRUs and four reaction wheels. Over time through various failures, the satellite has been left with one reaction wheel on the vehicle skew axis and two gyros. To remain operational, a control scheme has been implemented using the magnetic torque rods and the remaining momentum wheel.[2] As a consequence, there are attitude regions where there is insufficient torque authority to overcome environmental disturbances (e.g. gravity gradient torques). The situation is further complicated by the fact that these attitude regions shift inertially with time as the spacecraft moves through earth s magnetic field during the course of its orbit. Under these conditions, the burden of planning targets and target-to-target slew maneuvers has increased significantly since the beginning of the mission.[3] Individual targets must be selected so that the magnetic field remains roughly aligned with the skew wheel axis to provide enough control authority to the other two orthogonal axes. If the field moves too far away from the skew axis, the lack of control authority allows environmental torques to pull the satellite away from the target and can potentially cause it to tumble. Slew maneuver planning must factor the stability of targets at the beginning and end, and the torque authority at all points along the slew. Due to the time varying magnetic field geometry relative to any two inertial targets, small modifications in slew maneuver timing can make large differences in the achievability of a maneuver.

Heatwole, Scott↗