Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data fusion”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

A Sample of What We Have Learned from A-Train Cloud Measurements

The A-train active sensors CloudSat and CALIPSO provide detailed information about cloud vertical structure. Coarse vertical information can also be obtained from a combination of passive sensors (e.g. cloud liquid water content from AMSR-E, cloud ice properties from MLS and HIRDLS, cloud-top pressure from MODIS and AIRS, and UVNISINear IR absorption and scattering from OMI, MODIS, and POLDER). In addition, the wide swaths of instruments such as MODIS, AIRS, OMI, POLDER, and AMSR-E can be exploited to create estimates of the three-dimensional cloud extent. We will show how data fusion from A-train sensors can be used, e.g., to detect and map the presence of multiple layer/phase clouds. Ultimately, combined cloud information from Atrain instruments will allow for estimates of heating and radiative flux at the surface as well as UV/VIS/Near IR trace-gas absorption at the overpass time on a near-global daily basis. CloudSat has also dramatically improved our interpretation of visible and UV passive measurements in complex cloudy situations such as deep convection and multiple cloud layers. This has led to new approaches for unique and accurate constituent retrievals from A-train instruments. For example, ozone mixing ratios inside tropical deep convective clouds have recently been estimated using the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Field campaign data from TC4 provide additional information about the spatial variability and origin of trace-gases inside convective clouds. We will highlight some of the new applications of remote sensing in cloudy conditions that have been enabled by the synergy between the A-train active and passive sensors.

Joiner, Joanna↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leaf 13 C data constrain the uncertainty of the carbon dynamics of temperate forest ecosystems

Stable carbon isotope discrimination occurred in plant biophysical and biogeochemical processes can help understand plant physiology and soil biogeochemistry with respect to carbon cycling. Here, we incorporated the photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination into a process-based land surface model (iTEM) to test if stable carbon isotope composition (δ 13 C) can impose additional constraint on model parameters. Sequential data assimilation was implemented at six eddy covariance flux tower sites using carbon flux observations including gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) with and without considering foliar δ 13 C (δ 13 C f ) measurement constraints, respectively. Our model-data fusion showed that δ 13 C f can provide useful constraint on photosynthetic (V cmax25 , the maximum rate of carboxylation at 25°C) and stomatal (g1, the slope of stomatal function) parameters as well as the posterior carbon fluxes. When including δ 13 C f measurement, g1 spatially varies among the six sites and is significantly correlated with annual precipitation. We incorporated the statistical relationship between g1 and annual precipitation into iTEM, which is then used to quantify the regional carbon dynamic in temperate forest ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere. Compared with the simulation only conditioned on carbon flux observations, regional carbon flux estimations performed slightly better against the FLUXCOM products and the uncertainties of modeled carbon fluxes were reduced by 27%. Our study demonstrated that δ 13 C f data constrains carbon flux uncertainties across space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

AUTOMATING SPENT FUEL DEFECT DETECTION WITH FUSED DCVD AND GET DATA

Within the safeguards regime, spent fuel monitoring has long been implemented to verify facility declarations. As the number and size of facilities under safeguards increase, so does time spent on highly repetitive spent fuel monitoring, making it an area ripe for automation. However, due to international proliferation concerns, automation must be robust and provide estimates of confidence in the results. Cerenkov Viewing Devices (CVDs) are widely implemented for spent fuel monitoring, but their single defect detection ability is limited. In this research, we augment CVD measurements with Gamma Emission Tomographer (GET) data in order to increase defect detection above the level of either detector method individually. Here we present the development and implementation of a Bayesian data fusion algorithm for classification of individual fuel rods as defects or nondefects across two burn-up and cooling time scenarios. Results show a nearly 75% single defect detection capability with a 10% false positive rate for 17x17 PWR fuel assemblies. The Bayesian framework also enables calculation of uncertainties associated with each classification. These results also show a moderate ability to generalize across both high burn-up and short cooling times as well as low burn-up and long cooling times.

Safeguards, image analysis, metric learning, Data ↗
DOE OSTI2015

Combining Radiography and Passive Measurements for Radiological Threat Localization in Cargo

Detecting shielded special nuclear material (SNM) in a cargo container is a difficult problem, since shielding reduces the amount of radiation escaping the container. Radiography provides information that is complementary to that provided by passive gamma-ray detection systems: while not directly sensitive to radiological materials, radiography can reveal highly shielded regions that may mask a passive radiological signal. Combining these measurements has the potential to improve SNM detection, either through improved sensitivity or by providing a solution to the inverse problem to estimate source properties (strength and location). We present a data-fusion method that uses a radiograph to provide an estimate of the radiation-transport environment for gamma rays from potential sources. This approach makes quantitative use of radiographic images without relying on image interpretation, and results in a probabilistic description of likely source locations and strengths. We present results for this method for a modeled test case of a cargo container passing through a plastic-scintillator-based radiation portal monitor and a transmission-radiography system. We find that a radiograph-based inversion scheme allows for localization of a low-noise source placed randomly within the test container to within 40 cm, compared to 70 cm for triangulation alone, while strength estimation accuracy is improved by a factor of six. Improvements are seen in regions of both high and low shielding, but are most pronounced in highly shielded regions. The approach proposed here combines transmission and emission data in a manner that has not been explored in the cargo-screening literature, advancing the ability to accurately describe a hidden source based on currently-available instrumentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrodynamic and Radiographic Toolbox (HART)

With a multi-lab and university team, we propose to develop new methods for a Hydrodynamic and Radiographic Toolbox (HART) that will enable a fuller and more extensive use of experimental radiographic data towards better characterizing and reducing uncertainties in predictive modeling of weapons performance. We will achieve this by leveraging recent developments in areas of computational imaging, statistical and machine learning, and reduced order modeling of hydrodynamics. In terms of software practices, by partnering with XCP (RISTRA Project) we will conform to recent XCP standards that are inline with modern software practices and standards and ensure compatibility and ease of inter-operability with existing codes. Three new activities under this proposal include (a) the development and use of deep learning-based surrogates to accelerate reconstruction and variational inference of density fields from radiographs of hydrotests, (b) a model-data fusion strategy that couples deep learning-based density reconstructions with fast hydrodynamics simulators to better constrain the reconstruction, and (c) a method for treating asymmetries using techniques adopted from limited view tomography. All three new activities will be based on improved treatment of scatter, noise, beam spot movement, detector blur, and flat fielding in the forward model, and a use of sophisticated priors to aid in the re construction. The improvements to the forward model and improved algorithmic design of the reconstruction when complete will be contained in the iterative reconstruction code SHIVA—a code project that we have recently initiated. The many ways in which machine learning can be used in the reconstruction work will be contained in a code HERMES that has been initiated with DTRA support. For example, the significant levels of acceleration that will likely be achieved by the use of machine learning techniques will permit us (and are required) to quantify uncertainties in density retrievals. Next, the two-way coupling between density reconstruction and model-based simulation of the hydrodynamics will be contained in code EREBUS, and will permit a fuller realization of the potential of the data to constrain the hydrodynamic model and better address issues related to asymmetries in the problem. Finally, we anticipate that the better consistency with physics achieved in our reconstructions will allow them to be used by X-Division more so than today.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2014

Parameterization and sensitivity analysis of a process‐based terrestrial ecosystem model using adjoint method

Abstract We developed an adjoint version of a process‐based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The adjoint model of TEM was then used to: (1) conduct sensitivity studies of net ecosystem production (NEP) for three terrestrial ecosystems: grassland, deciduous broadleaf forest and evergreen needle‐leaf forest; (2) rank the importance of parameters in controlling NEP; (3) optimize the model parameters by assimilating eddy flux data of NEP; and (4) evaluate parameterization by extrapolating optimal parameters to other sites that have the same plant functional type as the calibration sites. We found that: (1) the maximum rate of photosynthesis ( C MAX ) was the most important parameter in determining NEP, while the importance of the remaining parameters varied depending on plant functional type, suggesting that the same ecosystem process has different degrees of importance in modeling carbon fluxes; (2) the sensitivity of NEP to C MAX had a significant seasonal variability and the control of C MAX on NEP was much larger in growing season (defined as from April to October) than that in nongrowing season (defined as from December to March); and (3) after parameterization, TEM could reasonably reproduce carbon fluxes observed at eddy flux tower sites. This study provided an effective model‐data fusion framework of TEM, which could improve the future quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes at both site and regional levels.

Zhu, Qing↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI‐Driven Robot Enables Synthesis‐Property Relation Prediction for Metal Halide Perovskites in Humid Atmosphere

Materials Acceleration Platforms (MAPs) – also known as self-driving laboratories– present a new paradigm for materials science and promise an order of magnitude accelerated materials discovery compared to the traditional trial-and-error approach. Metal halide perovskites (MHPs) are an emerging class of materials for optoelectronic applications but are plagued by irreproducible optoelectronic quality, particularly for films fabricated in a humid atmosphere. Here, in this work, a machine learning (ML)-guided closed-loop platform is developed with a multimodal data fusion approach to predict synthesis–property relations for the optical quality of MHP thin films in relative humidities (RHs) ranging from 5–55%. The efficiency of this approach is confirmed by the fast-dropping learning rate to 2% after experimentally sampling less than 1% of the possible 5,000+ combinations. The prediction of synthesis–property relations is done by optical and imaging characterizations. In situ photoluminescence characterization revealed the origin of thin film quality variation at different RH. These insights provide an avenue for controlling the MHP crystallization by fine-tuning the synthesis parameters and RH for a given chemistry, thus lifting the need for stringent atmosphere control. The MAP enables an accelerated screening and understanding of the synthesis design space, facilitating rational synthesis recipe choice for a wide range of materials.

AI-driven robot↗
DOE OSTI2020

3D Characterization of the Columnar-to-Equiaxed Transition in Additively Manufactured Inconel 718

Additive manufacturing (AM) provides enormous processing flexibility, enabling novel part geometries and optimized designs. Access to a local heat source further permits the potential for local microstructure control on the scale of individual melt pools, which can enable local control of part properties. In order to design tailored processing strategies for target microstructures, models predicting the columnar-to-equiaxed transition must be extended to the high solidification velocities and complex thermal histories present in AM. Here, we combine 3D characterization with advanced modeling techniques to develop a more complete understanding of the solidification process and evolution of microstructure during electron beam melting (EBM) of Inconel 718. Full calibration of existing microstructure prediction models demonstrates the differences between AM processes and more conventional welding techniques, underlying the need for accurate determination of key parameters that can only be measured directly in 3D. The ability to combine multisensor data in a consistent 3D framework via data fusion algorithms is essential to fully leverage these advanced characterization approaches. Thermal modeling provides insight on microstructure development within isolated solidification events and demonstrates the role of Marangoni effects on controlling solidification behavior.

Polonsky, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2018

Characterization of gamma-ray background outside of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Static gamma-ray measurements collected between September 2017 and March 2018 in the vicinity of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory are presented. Temporal events are identified and tracked, including radioactive material transfers, rain events, and 41 Ar emissions. The remaining data is used to determine the average background and its variation. Finally, these results will be used to benchmark Monte Carlo transport models of the HFIR/REDC vicinity and provide training data for material transfer tracking algorithms and data fusion algorithms to determine HFIR operational status under the Multi-Informatics for Nuclear Operations Scenarios program.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sampling Density in Regional Exploration and Environmental Geochemical Studies: A Review

A variety of factors contribute to the proper and efficient evaluation of geochemical programs including sampling medium, sample size and sample fraction, sampling density, digestion procedure, and analytical techniques. Among the aforementioned factors, sampling density is of great importance, affecting project ability to detect anomalous sites, which are either economically viable or environmentally hazardous. It is quite critical to have a sufficient number of samples to delineate geochemical anomalies or baselines and to reveal the relative variations in elemental concentrations in a study area. The resolution of the subsequent maps obtained by sampling greatly depends on sampling density. While a large number of samples may generate redundant data, a small number of samples smooth out the patterns and may completely miss anomalies. This review provides a platform for applied geochemists who desire to design a sampling scheme for a regional geochemical program and do not have the financial resources to perform an orientation survey, which will give them the necessary information for designing, according to project objectives, a cost-effective regional geochemical survey for their study area. It is advisable to integrate during the desktop study all available information, such as geological, structural, geophysical, remote sensing data and topographical data by using different data fusion algorithms to arrive at a sampling density fit-for-purpose of the target area. This in turn facilitates an effective spatial positioning of sample locations. Quantitative analyses of the efficiency of different sampling densities for delineating geochemical patterns have not been well documented, warranting more attention and research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How much information on precipitation is contained in satellite infrared imagery?

Satellite infrared (IR) brightness temperature providing information on the characteristics of cloud tops is one of the primary input data used for estimating precipitation from satellites. Thus, the natural questions to ask are: Does IR imagery contain more information about precipitation in some regions more than others? What are the factors that lead to such differences? Should we expect the amount of information provided by IR imagery to change with respect to temporal or spatial aggregation? Comprehensive analysis of the accuracy of satellite-based precipitation estimates obtained from any given algorithm may provide qualitative answers to the above questions. However, such an approach only offers conclusions within the limited context of the algorithm used to obtain precipitation estimates; that is, patterns caused by the inherent information content of IR imagery are inextricable from those induced by assumptions embedded in the precipitation estimation algorithm. Here, we address the abovementioned questions from a different perspective using an information-theoretic measure, free of structural assumptions and general to a wide range of relationships, to characterize the average and seasonal dependence between IR imagery provided by satellite sensors in the spectral range (10.7–11.5 μm) and precipitation rates in the contiguous United States (CONUS) across distinct temporal and spatial scales. We analyze a total of more than 1.3 billion pairs of IR and precipitation observations over CONUS, and we observe interesting patterns. First, we show that there is a strong inverse relationship (ρ = - 0.73) between the information content of IR data and the number of no-rain observations; however, its robustness varies regionally and seasonally with less significant correlation during the warm season. Second, we demonstrate that the intuitive relationship of increasing dependence between IR and precipitation as a result of temporal or spatial aggregation exhibits a diminishing returns behavior. For instance, temporal aggregation from 1 to 3 h increases the dependence approximately 7 times as much as temporal aggregation from 12 to 24 h. Furthermore, we quantitatively examine and re-confirm several statements previously reported in the literature such as the strong association between IR and precipitation in convective storms and the low association in orographic rainfall. Finally, we conclude by illustrating the potential of the analysis in diagnosis of operational algorithms for estimating precipitation from IR brightness temperature. The findings of this study pinpoint spatial domains and time scales at which IR is not an adequate proxy for estimating precipitation. Thus, they can potentially guide the development of operational algorithms that utilize satellite Infrared imagery for estimating, downscaling and data fusion of precipitation. Finally, the analysis presented here opens up the possibility of developing new methodologies for diagnosis of satellite-based precipitation estimation algorithms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

An ontology to represent synthetic building occupant characteristics and behavior

Since the introduction of the occupant behavior Drivers-Needs-Actions-Systems (DNAS) framework in 2013, researchers have used the framework or further developed it based on their case studies, which include efforts to collect new data on occupant behaviors. The effort is often costly for the relatively few new data points added. Problems emerge when the already collected data do not meet the modelers' interoperability requirements. Previous studies addressed this issue by developing more sophisticated ontologies that enable integration with other datasets and synthetic data methodologies that would meet unique research applications. This paper presents an extension of the DNAS framework for the representation of synthetic occupant data to support various applications and use cases across the building life cycle. An agent-based modeling application is one of our motivations that requires more elaborate characteristics of an occupant-agent or a group-of-agent. The extension, built upon a review of the literature, introduces new elements to the framework that fall into five categories, including socio-economic, geographical location, activities, subjective values, and individual and collective adaptive actions. On-going research includes identifying occupant datasets and developing data fusion methods to generate synthetic occupants, as well as to demonstrate its applications in agent-based modeling coupled with building performance simulation.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robotics for HVAC applications: A critical review and future perspectives

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), enhanced computational capabilities, and innovations in sensors and hardware have driven the increasing development and application of robots in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. We selected and reviewed 101 studies published between 2005 and 2025, sourced from IEEE Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and the ACM Digital Library. To analyze these works, we developed a five-dimensional analytical framework (morphology, sensing, navigation, task execution, and system integration), inspired by the Springer Handbook of Robotics and tailored specifically for robotic applications in HVAC. Based on the reviewed studies, six distinct tasks spanning the entire HVAC lifecycle have been identified. Among the six tasks, inspection and maintenance dominate (59 %), followed by indoor monitoring and auditing (21 %), whereas leakage detection, comfort support, and installation/retrofit remain less explored. To address the identified gaps, this review proposes future research directions including investigating robot-aware HVAC design principles, developing multimodal HVAC sensing and data fusion techniques, enhancing robot training and hardware capabilities, and expanding robotic applications beyond Maintenance and Operations (M&O). The findings from this review inform future robotics research for HVAC applications and ultimately enhance system affordability, energy efficiency, resilience or reliability, and occupant environmental comfort. Moreover, it seeks to inspire researchers to explore the intersections of robotics, computer science, building science, and HVAC engineering fostering advancements in this multidisciplinary field.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2026

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Common Column Identification for Table Similarity Detection in Electrified Transportation Data Lakes

Electrified transportation often requires researchers and operators to interact with datasets from a wide range of sources and disciplines, such as transportation, power systems, public health, policies, and regulations. These datasets vary in quality and format, making it difficult to understand, preprocess, and identify key columns representing real-world entities or values for indexing and joining, which can negatively impact downstream analysis and operation. Existing solutions are limited, requiring extensive manual customization or data expertise to utilize. In this article, we propose a multi-layered approach to automatically identify key columns to expedite preprocessing and aid in analysis of electrified transportation data. Our method leverages a dynamic ontology to identify common fields and an information theory-based strategy for edge cases that are difficult to generalize. Evaluations on a number of datasets from data.gov and kaggle.com show improved performance of our methods over several baseline techniques, and our ablation analyses illustrate the efficacy of individual components of our method. Our case studies also demonstrate that our methods have the potential to improve analysis of electrified transportation data and aid in automatic integration of such datasets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression for prediction of random fields

We propose a new multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach for prediction of random fields based on observations of surrogate models or hierarchies of surrogate models. Our method builds upon recent work on recursive Bayesian techniques, in particular recursive co-kriging, and extends it to vector-valued fields and various types of covariances, including separable and non-separable ones. The framework we propose is general and can be used to perform uncertainty propagation and quantification in model-based simulations, multi-fidelity data fusion, and surrogate-based optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed recursive GPR techniques through various examples. Specifically, we study the stochastic Burgers equation and the stochastic Oberbeck–Boussinesq equations describing natural convection within a square enclosure. In both cases we find that the standard deviation of the Gaussian predictors as well as the absolute errors relative to benchmark stochastic solutions are very small, suggesting that the proposed multi-fidelity GPR approaches can yield highly accurate results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗