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At least 451 records · Page 25

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DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗

NASA NTRS1971

Experiment S012: Micrometeorite collection

The micrometeorite activity in a near-earth environment and the effect of the environment on microorganisms were studied by exposure of polished metal and plastic surfaces to the environment outside the Gemini spacecraft. Preliminary results are summarized as follows: (1) The cumulative influx rate in the size ranges from 10 to the minus 15th power to 10 to the minus 14th power gram was approximately 2 particles/ sq m/sec, as determined on the Gemini 12 mission; (2) The cumulative influx rate in the same mass range, as determined by the data from the Gemini 9 mission was almost 200 particles/ sq m/sec; and (3) The large particle cumulative influx rate was about 3 x 0.00001 particle/ sq m/sec, with a mass of the order of 10 to the minus 7th power gram. No living organisms could be found on the sterile collecting surfaces after recovery and handling.

Hemenway, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Probability of stress-corrosion fracture under random loading.

A method is developed for predicting the probability of stress-corrosion fracture of structures under random loadings. The formulation is based on the cumulative damage hypothesis and the experimentally determined stress-corrosion characteristics. Under both stationary and nonstationary random loadings, the mean value and the variance of the cumulative damage are obtained. The probability of stress-corrosion fracture is then evaluated using the principle of maximum entropy. It is shown that, under stationary random loadings, the standard deviation of the cumulative damage increases in proportion to the square root of time, while the coefficient of variation (dispersion) decreases in inversed proportion to the square root of time. Numerical examples are worked out to illustrate the general results.

Yang, J.-N.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Flux of optical meteors down to M sub pg = +12

Observations of the flux of optical meteors down to photographic magnitudes of +12 are reported. The meteors were detected by photometry using a 10-m optical reflector from December 12-15, 1974, during the Geminid shower. A total of 2222 light pulses is identified as coming from meteors within the 1 deg field of view of the detector, most of which correspond to sporadic meteors traversing the detector beam at various angles and velocities and do not differ with the date, indicating that the Geminid contribution at faint luminosities is small compared to the sporadic contribution. A rate of 1.1 to 3.3 x 10 to the -12th meteors/sq cm per sec is obtained together with a power law meteor spectrum which is used to derive a relationship between cumulative meteor flux and magnitude which is linear for magnitudes from -2.4 through +12. Expressions for the cumulative flux upon the earth's atmosphere and at a test surface at 1 AU far from the earth as a function of magnitude are also obtained along with an estimate of the cumulative number density of particles.

Cook, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Early lunar petrogenesis, oceanic and extraoceanic

An attempt is made to ascertain which (if any) pristine nonmare rocks, other than KREEPy ones, are not cumulates from the magma ocean. It is noted that the only pristine rocks having bulk densities low enough to have formed by floating above the magma ocean are the ferroan anorthosites, which are easily recognizable as a discrete subset of pristine rocks in general, on the basis of mineral composition relationships. The other class of pristine nonmare rocks, the Mg-rich rocks, did not form from the same magma that produced the ferroan anorthosites. It is suggested that they were formed in layered noritic-troctolitic plutons. These plutons, it is noted, were apparently intruded at, or slightly above, the boundary between the floated ferroan anorthosite crust and the underlying complementary mafic cumulates. It is thought that the parental magmas of the plutons may have arisen by partial melting of either deep mafic cumulates from the magma ocean or a still deeper, undifferentiated primordial layer that was not molten during the magma ocean period.

Warren, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd evolution in lunar mare basalts

Existing cumulate remelting models for mare basalt genesis are evaluated in light of Lu-Hf, Rb-Sr, Sm-Nd data and overall REE characteristics in order to determine the simplest model that can account for these data. A data base for comparing Lu-Hf evolution in the lunar mantle as inferred from Lu-Hf analyses of oceanic basalts is presented along with a preliminary comparison of Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd evolution betwee mare basalts and terrestrial oceanic basalts. It is found that Lu/Hf characteristics of mare basalts cannot be explained in terms of modal melting of cumulate sources formed from a magma ocean with chondritic Lu/Hf. The data are consistent with a model in which the cumulate sources formed from a light REE + HF-enriched magma ocean. Nonmodal melting of ilmenite in the sources is also required. The Lu-Hf data suggest that even the high-Ti basalt sources contained no more than about 3 percent ilmenite.

Unruh, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Gas cooled fuel cell systems technology development

The first phase of a planned multiphase program to develop a Phosphoric is addressed. This report describes the efforts performed that culminated in the: (1) Establishment of the preliminary design requirements and system conceptual design for the nominally rated 375 kW PAFC module and is interfacing power plant systems; (2) Establishment of PAFC component and stack performance, endurance, and design parameter data needed for design verification for power plant application; (3) Improvement of the existing PAFC materials data base and establishment of materials specifications and process procedes for the cell components; and (4) Testing of 122 subscale cell atmospheric test for 110,000 cumulative test hours, 12 subscale cell pressurized tests for 15,000 cumulative test hours, and 12 pressurized stack test for 10,000 cumulative test hours.

Feret, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Crystal fractionation in the SNC meteorites: Implications for surface units on Mars

Almost all rock types in the SNC meteorites are cumulates, products of magma differentiation by crystal fractionation (addition or removal of crystals). If the SNC meteorites are from the surface of Mars or near sub-surface, then most of the igneous units on Mars are differentiated. Basaltic units probably experienced minor to moderate differentiation, but ultrabasic units probably experienced extreme differentiation. Products of this differentiation may include Fe-rich gabbro, pyroxenite, peridotite (and thus serpentine), and possibly massive sulfides. The SNC meteorites include ten lithologies (three in EETA79001), eight of which are crystal cumulates. The other lithologies, EETA79001 A and B are subophitic basalts. The cumulate lithologies ALHA77005 and EETA79001 C were not fully described or discussed.

Treiman, Allan H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Meteoritic basalts

The objectives were to: explain the abundances of siderophile elements in the SNC meteorite suite, of putative Martian origin; discover the magmatic origins and possibly magma compositions behind the Nakhla meteorite, one of the SNC meteorites; and a re-evaluation of the petrology of Angra dos Reis, a unique meteorite linked to the earliest planetary bodies of the solar nebula. A re-evaluation of its petrography showed that the accepted scenario for its origin, as a cumulate igneous rock, was not consistent with the meteorite's textures (Treiman). More likely is that the meteorite represents a prophyritic igneous rock, originally with magma dominant. Studies of the Nakhla meteorite, of possible Martian origin, although difficult, were successful. It became necessary to reject the basic categorization of Nakhla: that is was a cumulate igneous rock. Detailed studies of the chemical zoning of Nakhlas' minerals, coupled with the failure of experimental studies to yield expected results, forced the conclusion that Nakhla is not a cumulate rock in the usual sense: a rock composed of igneous crystals and intercrystal magma. Study of the siderophile element abundances in the SNC meteorite groups involved trying to find reasonable core formation processes and parameters that would reproduce the observed abundances. Modelling was successful, and delimited a range of models which overlap with those reasonable from geophysical constraints.

Treiman, Allan H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Imperfect fractional crystallization of the lunar magma ocean and formation of the lunar mantle: A realistic chemical approach

It is generally considered that lunar mare basalts were generated by the melting of a cumulate mantle formed in an early Moon-wide magma ocean or magmasphere. However, the nature and chemistry of this cumulate mantle and the logistics of its origin have remained elusive. Extensive studies of terrestrial layered mafic intrusions over the past sixty years have emphasized the imperfection of fractional crystallization and attendant crystal-crystal and crystal-liquid separation in a convecting magma chamber. These separations were similarly inefficient during evolution of the lunar magmasphere, allowing for the trapping of interstitial melt and entrainment of a small proportion of less-dense plagioclase into the more-dense mafic cumulate mush. Indeed, petrography of lunar highlands samples demonstrates this well for anorthosites (with 1-10 percent olivine). Therefore, we propose a 'realistic' model for the evolution of the lunar mantle, which takes these observations into consideration, by the imperfect fractional crystallization of an early lunar magma ocean.

Snyder, Gregory A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The influence of lunar propellant production on the cost-effectiveness of cislunar transportation systems

It is well known that propellants produced at the points of destination such as the Moon or Mars will help the economy of space transportation, particularly if round trips with a crew are involved. The construction and operation of a lunar base shortly after the turn of the century is one of the space programs under serious consideration at the present time. Space transportation is one of the major cost drivers. With present technology, if expendable launchers were employed, the specific transportation costs of one-way cargo flights would be approximately 10,000 dollars/kg (1985) at life-cycle cumulative 100,000 ton payload to the lunar surface. A fully reusable space transportation system using lunar oxygen and Earth-produced liquid hydrogen (LH2) would reduce the specific transportation costs by one order of magnitude to less than 1000 dollars/kg at the same payload volume. Another case of primary interest is the delivery of construction material and consumables from the lunar surface to the assembly site of space solar power plants in geostationary orbit (GEO). If such a system were technically and economically feasible, a cumulative payload of about 1 million tons or more would be required. At this level a space freighter system could deliver this material from Earth for about 300 dollars/kg (1985) to GEO. A lunar space transportation system using lunar oxygen and a fuel mixture of 50 percent Al and 50 percent LH2 (that has to come from Earth) could reduce the specific transportation costs to less than half, approximately 150 dollars/kg. If only lunar oxygen were available, these costs would come down to 200 dollars/kg. This analysis indicates a sizable reduction of the transportation burden on this type of mission. It should not be overlooked, however, that there are several uncertainties in such calculations. It is quite difficult at this point to calculate the cost of lunar-produced O and/or Al. This will be a function of production rate and life-cycle length. In quoting any cost of this nature, it is very important to state the cumulative transportation volume, since this is a very sensitive parameter. Nevertheless, cost models must be developed now to understand fully the interdependencies of a large number of parameters and to provide the best possible data for planning purposes. Without such data, mission modes and vehicle designs or sizes cannot be selected intelligently.

Koelle, H. H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50 percent less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Simonsen, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS1950

Fundamental flame velocities of pure hydrocarbons II : alkadienes

Data are presented for the fundamental flame velocities of 10 pure alkadienes that have isolated, conjugated, or cumulative double-bond systems. On the basis of this limited amount of data and the flame velocities previously reported, it is concluded that unsaturation changes the flame velocity in the order alkanes ? alkenes ? alkadienes with isolated double bonds ?= alkadienes with conjugated double bonds ? alkadienes with cumulative double bonds ?= alkynes. There were no significant differences in the flame velocities of cis and trans 1,3-pentadiene. The alkadienes 1,2-pentadiene and 2,3-pentadiene, with different positions of the cumulative double bond in the straight chain, have similar flame velocities. Methyl substitution in a hydrocarbon reduces the flame velocity; the extent of the reduction increases with the degree of unsaturation of the hydrocarbon.

Levine, Oscar↗

NASA NTRS1993

Longitudinal study of astronaut health: Mortality in the years 1959-1991

We conducted a historical cohort study of mortality among 195 astronauts who were exposed to space and medical sources of radiation between 1959 and 1991. Cumulative occupational and medical radiation exposures were obtained from the astronaut radiation exposure history data base. Causes of death were obtained from obligatory death certificates and autopsy reports that were on file in the medical records. A total of 18 deaths occurred during the 32-year follow-up period for which the all-cause standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 142 (95 percent confidence interval 84 225). There was one cancer death in the buccal cavity and pharynegeal ICD-9 rubric whose occurrence was significantly beyond expectation. Mortality for coronary disease was 59 percent lower than expected (2 deaths; SMR = 41; 95 percent confidence limit 5 147). The crude death rate for 10 occupationally related accidents was 400 deaths per 100,000 person-years, which is an order of magnitude greater than accidental death rates in mining industries. The SMR of 1027 for fatal accidents was significantly beyond expectation (14 deaths; 95 percent confidence limit 561 1723) and was similar to SMRs for accidents among aerial pesticide applications. The 10-year cumulative risk of occupational fatalities based on the exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and linear-exponential distributions was 10 percent. Mortality from motor vehicle accidents was slightly higher than expected but was not significant (1 death; SMR = 145; 95 percent confidence limit 2 808). Radiation exposures from medical procedures accounted for a majority of cumulative dose when compared with space radiation exposures. The results of the study do not confirm the impression that astronauts are at increased risk of cancer, but this does not obviate the need for further study. Overall, it was found that astronauts are at a health disadvantage as a result of catastrophic accidents.

Peterson, Leif E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The thickness of eucritic crust in the HED parent body

Because cumulate eucrites are generally thought to be located at the lower part in eucritic crust on a diogenitic mantle in the HED parent body, the burial depth of cumulate eucrites gives information on the thickness of the eucritic crust. We estimated the burial depth and cooling rate of cumulate eucrites, Serra de Mage and Moore County on the basis of the width of augite lamellae and compositional gradients of Ca in pyroxenes by numerically solving the diffusion equation. We obtained the burial depth of the eucrites of 7-8 km and cooling rate of 0.00016-0.0002 degrees C/yr.

Miyamoto, M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

U-Pb isotopic systematics of ferroan anorthosite 60025

Preliminary U-Pb isotopic data from separates of ferroan anorthosite 60025 confirm its antiquity at approximately 4.42 Ga. Three Pb-Pb isochron ages involving different sets of mineral separates vary by only 20 million years, but indicate derivation of the sets from isotopically distinct magma sources. If this anorthosite was a monomict cumulate product formed during the Moon's early primary differentiation stage, then residual liquids of crystallizing magmas were evolving isotopically, even at the cm-scale, over the duration of the crystallization period. Another explanation is that this sample is simply a polymict breccia and that the Pb isotopic results are a result of subsequent mechanical mixing of mineral assemblages from various cumulate piles formed coevally at approximately 4.42 Ga from isotopically distinct magma sources. In our ongoing search for early lunar Pb isotopic compositions, we have analyzed Apollo 16 anorthosites 67075 and 62337 and Apollo 17 high-Mg suite cumulates (troctolite 76535, norite 78235, and dunite 72415). The U-Pb isotopic systematics have been better behaved in the high-Mg suite rocks than in the anorthosites that have shown evidence of mineral assemblages of mixed parentage. Our aim in analyzing anorthosite 60025 was to avoid or minimize this problem as it had been considered essentially monomict, although recent work has shown that not only is 60025 polymict, but shows textual evidence of at least two episodes of deformation. Of five splits studied by James, Lindstrom and McGee, the four mineral splits appeared monomict, whereas the whole-rock split was considered polymict. Previous isotopic work indicate that this anorthosite was quite primitive, a claim that was apparently confirmed by the U-Pb isotopic age of 4.51 +/- .01 Ga on three plagioclase separates. However, a Sm-Nd internal isochron age of 4.44 +/- 0.02 Ga was determined using plagioclase, olivine, and mafic mineral separates, creating some doubt about the anorthosite's true age. It was pointed out that the use of slightly evolved initial Pb values (corresponding to a source-micron value of approximately 35) to correct the U-Pb data can result in an U-Pb age of 4.44 Ga. The need to resolve the age and isotopic nature of this anorthosite is paramount to furthering our understanding of processes of ferroan anorthosite formation as well as the magmatic history of the early Moon.

Premo, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Probabilistic Simulation of Progressive Fracture in Bolted-Joint Composite Laminates

This report describes computational methods to probabilistically simulate fracture in bolted composite structures. An innovative approach that is independent of stress intensity factors and fracture toughness was used to simulate progressive fracture. The effect of design variable uncertainties on structural damage was also quantified. A fast probability integrator assessed the scatter in the composite structure response before and after damage. Then the sensitivity of the response to design variables was computed. General-purpose methods, which are applicable to bolted joints in all types of structures and in all fracture processes-from damage initiation to unstable propagation and global structure collapse-were used. These methods were demonstrated for a bolted joint of a polymer matrix composite panel under edge loads. The effects of the fabrication process were included in the simulation of damage in the bolted panel. Results showed that the most effective way to reduce end displacement at fracture is to control both the load and the ply thickness. The cumulative probability for longitudinal stress in all plies was most sensitive to the load; in the 0 deg. plies it was very sensitive to ply thickness. The cumulative probability for transverse stress was most sensitive to the matrix coefficient of thermal expansion. In addition, fiber volume ratio and fiber transverse modulus both contributed significantly to the cumulative probability for the transverse stresses in all the plies.

Minnetyan, L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Non-Invasive Investigation of Bone Adaptation in Humans to Mechanical Loading

Experimental studies have identified peak cyclic forces, number of loading cycles, and loading rate as contributors to the regulation of bone metabolism. We have proposed a theoretical model that relates bone density to a mechanical stimulus derived from average daily cumulative peak cyclic 'effective' tissue stresses. In order to develop a non-invasive experimental model to test the theoretical model we need to: (1) monitor daily cumulative loading on a bone, (2) compute the internal stress state(s) resulting from the imposed loading, and (3) image volumetric bone density accurately, precisely, and reproducibly within small contiguous volumes throughout the bone. We have chosen the calcaneus (heel) as an experimental model bone site because it is loaded by ligament, tendon and joint contact forces in equilibrium with daily ground reaction forces that we can measure; it is a peripheral bone site and therefore more easily and accurately imaged with computed tomography; it is composed primarily of cancellous bone; and it is a relevant site for monitoring bone loss and adaptation in astronauts and the general population. This paper presents an overview of our recent advances in the areas of monitoring daily ground reaction forces, biomechanical modeling of the forces on the calcaneus during gait, mathematical modeling of calcaneal bone adaptation in response to cumulative daily activity, accurate and precise imaging of the calcaneus with quantitative computed tomography (QCT), and application to long duration space flight.

Whalen, R.↗