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At least 451 records · Page 25

Correlating chemistry and mass transport in sustainable iron production

Steelmaking contributes 8% to the total CO 2 emissions globally, primarily due to coal-based iron ore reduction. Clean hydrogen-based ironmaking has variable performance because the dominant gas–solid reduction mechanism is set by the defects and pores inside the mm- to nm-sized oxide particles that change significantly as the reaction progresses. While these governing dynamics are essential to establish continuous flow of iron and its ores through reactors, the direct link between agglomeration and chemistry is still contested due to missing measurements. In this work, we directly measure the connection between chemistry and agglomeration in the smallest iron oxides relevant to magnetite ores. Using synthesized spherical 10-nm magnetite particles reacting in H 2 , we resolve the formation and consumption of wüstite (Fe 1-x O)—the step most commonly attributed to whiskering. Using X-ray diffraction, we resolve crystallographic anisotropy in the rate of the initial reaction. Complementary imaging demonstrated how the particles self-assemble, subsequently react, and grow into elongated “whisker” structures. Our insights into how morphologically uniform iron oxide particles react and agglomerate in H 2 reduction enable future size-dependent models to effectively describe the multiscale aspects of iron ore reduction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Physics Imposed on a Streaming Operator by Spherical Transport Problems

The streaming operator, which generates a displacement of a particle on a straight line at a constant speed in transport theory, is derived algebraically from a spherical coordinate formulation of Newton’s second law. This derivation leads to an operator that has more partial derivatives than a Cartesian coordinate formulation of the operator. The additional partial derivatives, which are with respect to the normalized velocity variables of a particle, take into account the intrinsic curvature of a ball. Moreover, these partial derivatives mitigate ray effects, which arise when a finite number of normalized velocities (also called directions or discrete ordinates) are used to simulate a continuous S 2 sphere of directions, by rotating the polar axis of the S 2 sphere into the radial direction of the coordinate system. As a consequence of this rotation, the number of actual discrete ordinates is greatly amplified to an enormous number of effective discrete ordinates by a multiplier that is equal to the number of patches that partitions a spherical surface. In addition to the derivation of the streaming operator, we provide in closed form a solution to the system of characteristic equations that is equivalent to the streaming operator. Furthermore, the solution to the system of characteristic equations enables the construction of an integral operator that is the inverse to the streaming operator. Examples in which ray effects are immensely mitigated by spherical coordinates are presented.

integral operator↗

Attribution of the record-high 2023 SST using a deep-learning framework

Abstract The global-mean sea surface temperature (SST) reached a record high in 2023, exceeding the 2016 record by 0.14 °C. This unprecedented change in global-mean SST has major implications for our understanding of internal variability and the forced response in our changing climate. In this work, we use neural networks trained on simulated climate data to separate the contributions of internal variability and the forced response within observations. Performing attribution reveals that internal variability was responsible for +0.07 °C of the 2023 global mean SST, due to anomalously warm conditions in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. Furthermore, these results provide a line of evidence for accelerated forced warming in recent years. Continued monitoring of the climate will be critical for understanding the drivers behind this unprecedented SST record.

Rader, Jamin K. (ORCID:0000000222045977)↗

Cretaceous sequence stratigraphy of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough: Implications for basin evolution and carbon storage

We evaluate the Cretaceous stratigraphy and carbon sequestration potential of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough (NBCT) using >10,000 km of multi-channel seismic profiles integrated with geophysical logs, biostratigraphy, and lithology from 29 offshore wells. We identify and map six sequences resolved primarily at the stage level. Accommodation was dominated by thermal and non-thermal subsidence, though sequence boundaries correlate with regional and global sea-level changes, and the record is modified by igneous intrusion, active faulting, and changes in sediment supply and sources. Our stratigraphic maps illustrate a primary southern (central Appalachian) Early Cretaceous source that migrated northward during the Aptian and Albian. During the Cenomanian, sedimentation rates in the NBCT increased and depocenters shifted northward and landward. We show that deposition occurred in three phases: (1) earlier Cretaceous paleoenvironments were primarily terrestrial indicated by variable amplitude, chaotic seismic facies, serrated gamma logs, and heterolithic sandstones and mudstones with terrestrial microfossils; (2) the Albian to Cenomanian was dominated by deltaic paleoenvironments indicated by blocky, funnel-shaped, gamma-ray logs and clinoforms characterized by continuous high-amplitude seismic reflections with well-defined terminations; and (3) the Cenomanian and younger was marine shelf, inferred from mudstoneprone lithologies, peak gamma-ray values in well logs, and foraminiferal evidence. Long-term transgression and maximum water depths at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary correlative with Ocean Anoxic Event 2 were followed by a regression and relative sea-level fall. We show that porous and permeable sandstones of three Aptian to Cenomanian highstand systems tracts are high-volume reservoirs for supercritical CO 2 storage that are confined by overlying deep water mudstones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NCBI’s Virus Discovery Codeathon: Building “FIVE” —The Federated Index of Viral Experiments API Index

Viruses represent important test cases for data federation due to their genome size and the rapid increase in sequence data in publicly available databases. However, some consequences of previously decentralized (unfederated) data are lack of consensus or comparisons between feature annotations. Unifying or displaying alternative annotations should be a priority both for communities with robust entry representation and for nascent communities with burgeoning data sources. To this end, during this three-day continuation of the Virus Hunting Toolkit codeathon series (VHT-2), a new integrated and federated viral index was elaborated. This Federated Index of Viral Experiments (FIVE) integrates pre-existing and novel functional and taxonomy annotations and virus–host pairings. Variability in the context of viral genomic diversity is often overlooked in virus databases. As a proof-of-concept, FIVE was the first attempt to include viral genome variation for HIV, the most well-studied human pathogen, through viral genome diversity graphs. As per the publication of this manuscript, FIVE is the first implementation of a virus-specific federated index of such scope. FIVE is coded in BigQuery for optimal access of large quantities of data and is publicly accessible. Many projects of database or index federation fail to provide easier alternatives to access or query information. To this end, a Python API query system was developed to enhance the accessibility of FIVE.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Radon kinetics in a natural indoor radon chamber

An unusual 180 m 3 storage room in the basement of a two-story laboratory building is unventilated, and separated from occupiable rooms by double steel doors. The space completely borders on soil through the concrete floor and two of its concrete walls. The room also contains a separate inner chamber with 1 m thick concrete walls designed to damp vibrations in the room above it. The space boasts a relatively high radon level, 1083 Bq m –3 , which varies with local outdoor environmental conditions. Measurements were made of radon concentrations at various locations and heights within the facility. More than a year of continuous radon concentration data corresponding to a single location are also available, along with measurements of indoor and outdoor pressure, temperature, and humidity. Data were also collected with as many as five fans placed in different locations and cycled on for variable time periods. First order linear kinetic models were created to explain the observed approaches to steady state due to changing conditions and wash-out resulting from intentional ventilation. Results demonstrate a good fit between changes in the radon concentration level and the developed compartmental models. Furthermore, no significant differences were observed between radon concentration at different locations or heights in the chamber.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stromataxic Stabilization of a Metastable Layered ScFeO3 Polymorph

Metastable polymorphs--materials with the same stoichiometry as the ground state but a different crystal structure--enable many critical technologies. This work describes the development of a stabilization approach for metastable polymorphs that are difficult to achieve through other stabilization techniques (such as epitaxy or quenching) called stromataxy. Stromataxy is a method based on controlling the precursor structure during the initial stages of material growth to dictate phase formation. To illustrate this approach, we controlled the atomic layering of the precursors of ScFeO3 and stabilized the metastable P63cm phase, under conditions that previously led to the ground-state Ia3¯ bixbyite phase. Ab initio mechanistic calculations highlight the importance of the variable oxidation state of Fe and the layer stability during layer-by-layer growth. The broad applicability of a stromataxy approach was demonstrated by stabilizing this metastable phase on substrates that have previously been shown to stabilize other polymorphs under continuous growth. Stromataxy is shown as a viable option for accessing polymorphs that are close in energy, difficult to differentiate by strain, or that lack a well epitaxially matched substrate.

calculations↗

Accelerating Large-Format Metal Additive Manufacturing: How Controls R&D is Driving Speed, Scale, and Efficiency

This article highlights work at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Manufacturing Demonstration Facility to develop closed-loop, feedback control for laser-wire based Directed Energy Deposition, a form of metal Big Area Additive Manufacturing (m-BAAM), a process being developed in partnership with GKN Aerospace specifically for the production of Ti-6Al-4V pre-forms for aerospace components. A large-scale structural demonstrator component is presented as a case-study in which not just control, but the entire 3D printing workflow for m-BAAM is discussed in detail, including design principles for large-format metal AM, toolpath generation, parameter development, process control, and system operation, as well as post-print net-shape geometric analysis and finish machining. In terms of control, a multi-sensor approach has been utilized to measure both layer height and melt pool size, and multiple modes of closed-loop control have been developed to manipulate process parameters (laser power, print speed, deposition rate) to control these variables. Layer height control and melt pool size control have yielded excellent local (intralayer) and global (component-level) geometry control, and the impact of melt pool size control in particular on thermal gradients and material properties is the subject of continuing research. Further, these modes of control have allowed the process to advance to higher deposition rates (exceeding 7.5 lb/hr), larger parts (1-meter scale), shorter build times, and higher overall efficiency. The control modes are examined individually, highlighting their development, demonstration, and lessons learned, and it is shown how they operate concurrently to enable the printing of a large-scale, near net shape Ti-6Al-4V component.

Gibson, Brian↗

Production and Persistence of Extreme Two-temperature Plasmas in Radiative Relativistic Turbulence

Turbulence is a predominant process for energizing electrons and ions in collisionless astrophysical plasmas, and thus is responsible for shaping their radiative signatures (luminosity, spectra, and variability). To better understand the kinetic properties of a collisionless radiative plasma subject to externally driven turbulence, we investigate particle-in-cell simulations of relativistic plasma turbulence with external inverse Compton cooling acting on the electrons. We find that ions continuously heat up while electrons gradually cool down (due to the net effect of radiation), and hence the ion-to-electron temperature ratio T i /T e grows in time. Furthermore, we show that Ti/Te is limited only by the size and duration of the simulations (reaching ${T}_{i}/{T}_{e}\sim {10}^{3}$), indicating that there are no efficient collisionless mechanisms of electron–ion thermal coupling. This result has implications for models of radiatively inefficient accretion flows, such as observed in the Galactic center and in M87, for which so-called two-temperature plasmas with ${T}_{i}/{T}_{e}\gg 1$ have been invoked to explain their low luminosity. Additionally, we find that electrons acquire a quasi-thermal distribution (dictated by the competition of turbulent particle energization and radiative cooling), while ions undergo efficient nonthermal acceleration (acquiring a harder distribution than in equivalent nonradiative simulations). There is a modest nonthermal population of high-energy electrons that are beamed intermittently in space, time, and direction; these beamed electrons may explain rapid flares in certain high-energy astrophysical systems (e.g., in the Galactic center). These numerical results demonstrate that extreme two-temperature plasmas can be produced and maintained by relativistic radiative turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A moving discontinuous Galerkin finite element method with interface condition enforcement for compressible flows

A variation of moving discontinuous Galerkin finite element method with interface condition enforcement (MDG-ICE) is developed for solving the compressible Euler equations. The MDG-ICE method, originating from the work of Corrigan et al. [1], [2], [3], [4], is based on the space-time DG formulation, where both flow field and grid geometry are considered as independent variables and the conservation laws are enforced both on discrete elements and element interfaces. The element conservation laws are solved in the standard discontinuous solution space to determine conservative quantities, while the interface conservation is enforced using a variational formulation in a continuous space to determine discrete grid geometry. The resulting over-determined system of nonlinear equations arising from the MDG-ICE formulation can then be solved in a least-squares sense, leading to an unconstrained nonlinear least-squares problem that is regularized and solved by Levenberg-Marquardt method. A number of numerical experiments for both 1D unsteady and 2D steady state compressible flow problems are conducted to assess the accuracy and robustness of the MDG-ICE method. Numerical results obtained indicate that the MDG-ICE method is able to implicitly detect and track all types of discontinuities via interface conservation enforcement and satisfy the conservation law on both elements and interfaces via grid movement and grid management, demonstrating that an exponential rate of convergence for Sod and Lax-Harden shock tube problems can be achieved and highly accurate solutions without overheating to both double-rarefaction wave and Noh problems can be obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrating very-high-resolution imagery, Sentinel-2 time-series data, and machine learning to map shrub fractional abundance across arid and semi-arid ecosystems in China

Shrub fractional abundance (SFA), the proportion of shrub cover per unit area, serves as a critical indicator of environmental aridity and ecosystem health in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly across the Mongolian steppe. However, large-scale SFA mapping in Mongolian steppe ecosystems remains challenging due to the small crown size of shrubs, their sparse distribution, and spectral overlap with coexisting low vegetation (e.g., grasses and herbs), which hinders accurate detection using coarser-resolution satellite data or traditional field surveys. To address these challenges, we developed a two-step approach that integrates very-high-resolution (VHR) imagery, time-series Sentinel-2 data, and deep learning techniques. First, we generated high-accuracy benchmark maps of individual shrub crowns from 0.5 m VHR imagery by combining manual segmentation with a hybrid deep learning framework (Dino V2 and convolutional neural networks). Second, we used these shrub crown maps as training data to build an XGBoost model for predicting SFA from 20 m Sentinel-2 time-series data, leveraging phenological information to improve estimation. We validated our approach across 70 sites (1km 2 each) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which is representative of Mongolian steppe ecosystems. From VHR imagery, we mapped 1.31 million shrub crowns with an accuracy of R 2 = 0.92. Scaling up with Sentinel-2 data yielded regional SFA maps with an R 2 = 0.60. Further SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis on the developed XGBoost model revealed that phenological metrics (particularly observations in early-May, mid-July, and late-September), which distinguish shrub phenology from that of other land cover types (e.g., grasses and bare soil), were the most influential predictors of SFA. Finally, our regional SFA maps uncovered unimodal relationships between shrub distribution and climate variables, peaking at mean annual minimum temperatures near 0 °C and annual precipitation around 200 mm. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how the integration of multi-source remote sensing and machine learning can overcome historical limitations in SFA mapping, enabling accurate, spatially continuous assessments across vast Inner-Mongolian steppe ecosystems. Our framework has the potential to be applied to other steppe ecosystems and dryland ecosystems across the Mongolian steppe and beyond, offering a foundation for improved monitoring and ecological impact assessments in the face of global climate changes.

Arid and semi-arid landscapes↗

The impact of urban configuration types on urban heat islands, air pollution, CO 2 emissions, and mortality in Europe: a data science approach

The world is becoming increasingly urbanized. As cities around the world continue to grow, it is important for urban planners and policymakers to understand how different urban configuration patterns affect the environment and human health. We aimed at identifying European urban configuration types, based on the Local Climate Zones categories and street design variables from Open Street Map, and evaluating their association with motorized traffic flows, Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) intensities, tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), CO 2 per capita emissions and age-standardized mortality. We considered 946 European cities from 31 countries for the analysis defined in the 2018 Urban Audit database, of which 919 European cities were analysed. Data were collected at a 250 m × 250 m grid cell resolution. We divided all cities into five concentric rings based on the Burgess concentric urban planning model and calculated the mean values of all variables for each ring. First, to identify distinct urban configuration types, we applied the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction method, followed by the k-means clustering algorithm. Next, statistical differences in exposures (including SUHI) and mortality between the resulting urban configuration types were evaluated using a Kruskal–Wallis test followed by a post-hoc Dunn's test. We identified four distinct urban configuration types characterising European cities: compact high density (n=246), open low-rise medium density (n=245), open low-rise low density (n=261), and green low density (n=167). Compact high density cities were a small size, had high population densities, and a low availability of natural areas. In contrast, green low-density cities were a large size, had low population densities, and a high availability of natural areas and cycleways. The open low-rise medium and low-density cities were a small to medium size with medium to low population densities and low to moderate availability of green areas. Motorised traffic flows and NO 2 exposure were significantly higher in compact high density and open low rise medium density cities when compared with green low density and open low-rise low density cities. Additionally, green low-density cities had a significantly lower SUHI effect compared with all other urban configuration types. Per person CO 2 emissions were significantly lower in compact high density cities compared with green low density cities. Lastly, green low density cities had significantly lower mortality rates when compared with all other urban configuration types. Our findings indicate that, although the compact city model is more sustainable, European compact cities still face challenges related to poor environmental quality and health. Our results have notable implications for urban and transport planning policies in Europe and contribute to the ongoing discussion on which city models can bring the greatest benefits for the environment, climate, and health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Anthropogenic Impacts on Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide Since the 19th Century Inferred From Polar Firn Air and Ice Core Measurements

Carbonyl sulfide (COS) was measured in firn air collected during seven different field campaigns carried out at four different sites in Greenland and Antarctica between 2001 and 2015. A Bayesian probabilistic statistical model is used to conduct multisite inversions and to reconstruct separate atmospheric histories for Greenland and Antarctica. The firn air inversions cover most of the 20th century over Greenland and extend back to the 19th century over Antarctica. The derived atmospheric histories are consistent with independent surface air time series data from the corresponding sites and the Antarctic ice core COS records during periods of overlap. Atmospheric COS levels began to increase over preindustrial levels starting in the 19th century, and the increase continued for much of the 20th century. Atmospheric COS peaked at higher than present-day levels around 1975 CE over Greenland and around 1987 CE over Antarctica. An atmosphere/surface ocean box model is used to investigate the possible causes of observed variability. The results suggest that changes in the magnitude and location of anthropogenic sources have had a strong influence on the observed atmospheric COS variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating the mechanical stability of flexible metal–organic frameworks

As we continue to develop metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) for potential industrial applications, it becomes increasingly imperative to understand their mechanical stability. Notably, amongst flexible MOFs, structure-property relationships regarding their compressibility under pressure remain unclear. In this work, we conducted in situ variable pressure powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) measurements up to moderate pressures (<1 GPa) using a synchrotron source on two families of flexible MOFs: (i) NU-1400 and NU-1401, and (ii) MIL-88B, MIL-88B-(CH 3 ) 2 , and MIL-88B-(CH 3 ) 4 . In this project scope, we found a positive correlation between bulk moduli and degree of flexibility, where increased rigidity (e.g., smaller swelling or breathing amplitude) arising from steric hindrance was deleterious, and observed reversibility in the unit cell compression of these MOFs. This study serves as a primer for the community to begin to untangle the factors that engender flexible frameworks with mechanical resilience.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Unique nanotechnology converts carbon dioxide to valuable products

Carbon capture and management are increasing challenges associated with global warming. Current commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture technologies are associated with a heavy economic penalty – they require at least one-third of the plant’s steam and power to operate. The objective of this project was to develop and test an innovative nanotechnology that can utilize CO 2 , from coal-based power systems or other industrial sources, as the primary feedstock to produce commercially valuable products to potentially offset the cost of CO 2 capture. The scope of this project includes conversion of CO 2 to nanomaterials using two unique amino acids in synthetic flue gases and the completion of a process design and techno-economic and lifecycle analyses to demonstrate the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the developed technology. The International Energy Agency predicts that fossil fuels will continue to play a significant role in meeting global energy demand. The goal of the research is to lead to an affordable and transformational CO 2 capture and reuse technology that will reduce the release of CO 2 thereby reducing global climate variability and its enormous impact on our daily lives.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Cyber-Physical Dynamic System (CPDS) Modeling for Frequency Regulation and AGC Services of Distributed Energy Resources

The substantial integration of renewable energy brings significant challenges to balance the system in real time because of the variability and intermittency of renewable power. For the reliable system operation, the frequency regulation service is used to stabilize the system frequency through automatically balancing the system generation and load. On one hand, with the substantially increasing deployment of renewable energy in electricity system, the requirement of frequency regulation (FR) services increases significantly. On the other hand, the current main resource of FR services, the controllable conventional generation, is continuously decreasing in the system generation mix. This means that in the future high renewable penetration power system, additional and alternative reliable FR services providers such as distributed energy storage (DES) resources should be explored. Although the capability of utility-scale energy storage to provide FR services has been demonstrated, the integrated control and dynamic modeling of distributed energy resource (DER) providing frequency regulation grid services has been rarely explored. There are several challenges to adopt DERs to provide reliable grid services as illustrated in FERC 755. First, the distributed installation of DES requires a comprehensive cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) modeling to fully consider the impacts of the communication latency variability on its real time FR provision capability. Unlike the conventional generators, there are two-layer communication between DERs and system operators which increase the communication delay. Second, unlike the conventional generators whose dynamic models have been comprehensively studied, the difference among individual DER components' power-dynamic characteristic brings challenges in the accurate dynamic AGC modeling of its power-frequency relationship. Third, the temporal dependent state of charge uncertainty of DERs challenges DERs' power and frequency regulation capacities scheduling in the look-ahead generation scheduling. Therefore, the aggregator should optimize the frequency regulation provision from individual DER in real time. To overcome these challenges, this project proposes a cyber-physical dynamic system (CPDS) model to handle the uncertainty of DERs two-layer communication latency and power dynamics. The variability of DERs' communication delay and dynamic constraints will be comprehensively modeled. The DERs' AGC model with communication delay is designed to validate DESs' frequency regulation services. Like current performance-based frequency regulation evaluation, the delivery of DERs' frequency regulation will be assessed through post-analysis of the actual AGC response with respect to the AGC control signal from system operators. Consequently, the reliability improvement with DERs providing reliable frequency regulation services can be evaluated from a comprehensive perspective considering all the dynamics of communication and power.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗