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Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1976

Crack growth in Ti-8Al-1Mo-1V with real-time and accelerated flight-by-flight loading

Crack growth in Ti-8Al-1Mo-1V was measured and calculated for real-time and accelerated simulations of supersonic airplane loading and heating. Crack-growth rates calculated on the assumption that an entire flight could be represented by a single cycle predicted the experimental rates poorly. Calculated crack-growth rates were slower than the experimental rates for all tests with flight-by-flight loading. For room-temperature accelerated tests, the calculated rates agreed well with the experimental rates; but the calculations became progressively less accurate for progressively more complex test conditions (tests that included elevated temperature). Calculations of crack growth using the crack-closure concept can probably be improved through study of crack-opening stresses using finite-element models that account for variable-amplitude loading, residual stresses, and temperature effects. The calculations of crack growth could also be improved through detailed studies of material properties and interactions among stress, temperature, and time as appropriate for the real-time operating conditions of a supersonic transport airplane.

Imig, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Focused Assessment with Sonography for Trauma in weightlessness: a feasibility study

BACKGROUND: The Focused Assessment with Sonography for Trauma (FAST) examines for fluid in gravitationally dependent regions. There is no prior experience with this technique in weightlessness, such as on the International Space Station, where sonography is currently the only diagnostic imaging tool. STUDY DESIGN: A ground-based (1 g) porcine model for sonography was developed. We examined both the feasibility and the comparative performance of the FAST examination in parabolic flight. Sonographic detection and fluid behavior were evaluated in four animals during alternating weightlessness (0 g) and hypergravity (1.8 g) periods. During flight, boluses of fluid were incrementally introduced into the peritoneal cavity. Standardized sonographic windows were recorded. Postflight, the video recordings were divided into 169 20-second segments for subsequent interpretation by 12 blinded ultrasonography experts. Reviewers first decided whether a video segment was of sufficient diagnostic quality to analyze (determinate). Determinate segments were then analyzed as containing or not containing fluid. A probit regression model compared the probability of a positive fluid diagnosis to actual fluid levels (0 to 500 mL) under both 0-g and 1.8-g conditions. RESULTS: The in-flight sonographers found real-time scanning and interpretation technically similar to that of terrestrial conditions, as long as restraint was maintained. On blinded review, 80% of the recorded ultrasound segments were considered determinate. The best sensitivity for diagnosis in 0 g was found to be from the subhepatic space, with probability of a positive fluid diagnosis ranging from 9% (no fluid) to 51% (500 mL fluid). CONCLUSIONS: The FAST examination is technically feasible in weightlessness, and merits operational consideration for clinical contingencies in space.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗
NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

FROM↗
NASA NTRS1989

Dynamics of face and annular seals with two-phase flow

A detailed study was made of face and annular seals under conditions where boiling, i.e., phase change of the leaking fluid, occurs within the seal. Many seals operate in this mode because of flashing due to pressure drop and/or heat input from frictional heating. High pressure, water pumps, industrial chemical pumps, and cryogenic pumps are mentioned as a few of many applications. The initial motivation was the LOX-GOX seals for the space shuttle main engine, but the study was expanded to include any face or annular seal where boiling occurs. Some of the distinctive behavior characteristics of two-phase seals were discussed, particularly their axial stability. While two-phase seals probably exhibit instability to disturbances of other degrees of freedom such as wobble, etc., under certain conditions, such analyses are too complex to be treated at present. Since an all liquid seal (with parallel faces) has a neutral axial stiffness curve, and is stabilized axially by convergent coning, other degrees of freedom stability analyses are necessary. However, the axial stability behavior of the two-phase seal is always a consideration no matter how well the seal is aligned and regardless of the speed. Hence, axial stability is thought of as the primary design consideration for two-phase seals and indeed the stability behavior under sub-cooling variations probably overshadows other concerns. The main thrust was the dynamic analysis of axial motion of two-phase face seals, principally the determination of axial stiffness, and the steady behavior of two-phase annular seals. The main conclusions are that seals with two-phase flow may be unstable if improperly balanced. Detailed theoretical analyses of low (laminar) and high (turbulent) leakage seals are presented along with computer codes, parametric studies, and in particular a simplified PC based code that allows for rapid performance prediction. A simplified combined computer code for the performance prediction over the laminar and turbulent ranges of a two-phase seal is described and documented. The analyses, results, and computer codes are summarized.

Hughes, William F.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling, Analyzing, and Mitigating Dissonance Between Alerting Systems

Alerting systems are becoming pervasive in process operations, which may result in the potential for dissonance or conflict in information from different alerting systems that suggests different threat levels and/or actions to resolve hazards. Little is currently available to help in predicting or solving the dissonance problem. This thesis presents a methodology to model and analyze dissonance between alerting systems, providing both a theoretical foundation for understanding dissonance and a practical basis from which specific problems can be addressed. A state-space representation of multiple alerting system operation is generalized that can be tailored across a variety of applications. Based on the representation, two major causes of dissonance are identified: logic differences and sensor error. Additionally, several possible types of dissonance are identified. A mathematical analysis method is developed to identify the conditions for dissonance originating from logic differences. A probabilistic analysis methodology is developed to estimate the probability of dissonance originating from sensor error, and to compare the relative contribution to dissonance of sensor error against the contribution from logic differences. A hybrid model, which describes the dynamic behavior of the process with multiple alerting systems, is developed to identify dangerous dissonance space, from which the process can lead to disaster. Methodologies to avoid or mitigate dissonance are outlined. Two examples are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. First, a conceptual In-Trail Spacing example is presented. The methodology is applied to identify the conditions for possible dissonance, to identify relative contribution of logic difference and sensor error, and to identify dangerous dissonance space. Several proposed mitigation methods are demonstrated in this example. In the second example, the methodology is applied to address the dissonance problem between two air traffic alert and avoidance systems: the existing Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) vs. the proposed Airborne Conflict Management system (ACM). Conditions on ACM resolution maneuvers are identified to avoid dynamic dissonance between TCAS and ACM. Also included in this report is an Appendix written by Lee Winder about recent and continuing work on alerting systems design. The application of Markov Decision Process (MDP) theory to complex alerting problems is discussed and illustrated with an abstract example system.

Song, Lixia↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Derivation of the Most Influential Medical Conditions for An Extended Duration Artemis Mission

BACKGROUND: The risk of loss of mission due to medical conditions may be influenced by loss of crew life (LOCL), need for evacuation (RTDC; return to definitive care), and crew task time lost. Predicting what medical conditions are most likely to lead to crew morbidity and mortality may influence medical system design, clinical capability prioritization, and research strategies. NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces tool (IMPACT) applies Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology to assess these risks. OVERVIEW: A team of subject matter experts (SME) from a variety of medical disciplines developed a consensus-based process to determine 120 of the most clinically relevant medical conditions for long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) . This IMPACT Condition List (ICL) expanded upon previous work done for Integrated Medical Model (IMM). For each condition a best-case and worst-case definition were derived. These definitions were used to identify probability of occurrence, proportion of cases that are best case vs. worst case, clinical phase duration, and risk of outcomes (task time loss [TTL], RTDC, and LOCL) for both treated and untreated states. These data were sources from existing spaceflight databases (e.g. Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health), relevant models (e.g. the ISS fire model), and/or terrestrial literature. Each condition was then tied to diagnostic and therapeutic resources and capabilities. IMPACT was then run for the LDLOLS DRM (see Abstract #2 for this panel). DISCUSSION: This abstract will present the process for generating the IMPACT condition list, the relevant data for each clinical condition, and present results for the ten most influential conditions impacting LOCL, RTDC, and TTL for a representative extended duration Artemis mission.

A Nelson↗
NASA NTRS1963

A Technique for Simulating Conditions of Walking and Performing Other Self-Locomotive Activities on the Lunar Terrain

One of the most important and probably the most interesting phase of a manned lunar mission will be the time the astronauts spend outside their vehicle on the moon's surface taking scientific measurements, exploring the surface features, surveying possible sites for a lunar base, inspecting their vehicle and preparing it for their return trip. Because the lunar gravity is only one-sixth that of the earth gravity, the explorers undoubtedly will have to adjust their accustomed methods of walking, climbing, jumping and performing other self-locomotive activities in order to carry out these various tasks. In as much as the over-all success of the lunar mission will depend to a large extent upon the self-reliance of the explorers, it will be necessary to have extensive knowledge of the effects of the moon's reduced gravity on the physical capabilities of man and of man's ability to adopt to the new environment prior to the planning and execution of the mission. At the present time there is a dearth of information on this subject due primarily to the lack of a practical technique for simulating the reduced gravity. Several techniques such as immersion in water and riding in an airplane flying a Keplerian trajectory have been used for zero-g or weightlessness studies to determine the physical capabilities of man but these techniques are limited in their usefulness either by restrictions imposed by the viscous effect of the water or by the short duration and small test area available in an airplane. Consequently, an effort was made at the NASA Langley Research Center to devise a new technique that would provide a realistic simlation of a reduced gravity for unlimited periods of time and allow freedom of movement over considerable distances. This paper concerns itself with a discussion of the newly developed simulation technique and a presentation of some preliminary results which were obtained utilizing a working model based on this scheme.

Hewes, Donald E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Carrier and symbol synchronization system performance study

Results pertinent to predicting the performance of convolutionally encoded binary phase-shift keyed communication links were presented. The details of the development are provided in four sections. These sections are concerned with developing the bit error probability performance degradations due to PN despreading by a time-shared delay locked loop, the Costas demodulation process, symbol synchronization effects and cycle slipping phenomena in the Costas loop. In addition, Costas cycle slipping probabilities are studied as functions of Doppler count time and signal-to-noise conditions. The effect of cycle slipping in the symbol synchronizer is also studied as a function of channel Doppler and other frequency uncertainties.

Lindsey, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida

Multivariate analysis was used to determine the joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from 15 years of twice-daily rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component change with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and that the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh are tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from 1 to 5 hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented. Extension of the theoretical prediction (based on rawinsonde data) of wind component change standard deviation to time periods of 1 to 5 hours falls (with a few exceptions) within the 95 percentile confidence band of the population estimate obtained from the Jimsphere sample data. The joint distributions of wind change components, conditional wind components, and 1 km vector wind shear change components are illustrated by probability ellipses at the 95 percentile level.

Adelfang, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Application of advanced reliability methods to local strain fatigue analysis

When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) might become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple, and easily constructed, second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.

Wu, T. T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The non-Gaussian joint probability density function of slope and elevation for a nonlinear gravity wave field

On the basis of the mapping method developed by Huang et al. (1983), an analytic expression for the non-Gaussian joint probability density function of slope and elevation for nonlinear gravity waves is derived. Various conditional and marginal density functions are also obtained through the joint density function. The analytic results are compared with a series of carefully controlled laboratory observations, and good agreement is noted. Furthermore, the laboratory wind wave field observations indicate that the capillary or capillary-gravity waves may not be the dominant components in determining the total roughness of the wave field. Thus, the analytic results, though derived specifically for the gravity waves, may have more general applications.

Huang, N. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Advanced reliability method for fatigue analysis

When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) may become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple and easily constructed second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.

Wu, Y.-T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Mass spectrometric studies of phosphine pyrolysis and OMVPE growth of InP

The mechanism of PH3 decomposition was studied by using D2 as a carrier gas and analyzing the reaction products with a mass spectrometer. The effects of InP and silica surfaces were investigated. The only gaseous product below 600 C is H2. Since any gas-phase H atoms would produce HD, the reaction occurs entirely on the surface. The slow step is the unimolecular removal of the first hydrogen atom, with an activation energy of 36.0 kcal/mole on InP surfaces. The reaction on InP is first-order for PH3 concentrations as high as 15 percent, so the surface is not saturated at those conditions. When trimethylindium (TMIn) is added to the gas mixture, the mechanism changes dramatically, probably proceeding via an unstable intermediate adduct of TMIn and PH3 which eliminates CH4 upon formation. This concerted reaction lowers the pyrolysis temperatures of both PH3 and TMIn.

Larsen, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Brief state-of-the-art review on optical communications for the NASA ISES workshop

The current state of the art of optical communications is briefly reviewed. This review covers NASA programs, DOD and other government agency programs, commercial aerospace programs, and foreign programs. Included is a brief summary of a recent NASA workshop on optical communications. The basic conclusions from all the program reviews is that optical communications is a technology ready to be accepted but needed to be demonstrated. Probably the most advanced and sophisticated optical communications system is the Laser Intersatellite Transmission Experiment (LITE) system developed for flight on the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS). Optical communications technology is available for the applications of data communications at data rates in the under 300 MBits/sec for nearly all applications under 2 times GEO distances. Applications for low-earth orbiter (LEO) to ground will allow data rates in the multi-GBits/sec range. Higher data rates are limited by currently available laser power. Phased array lasers offer technology which should eliminate this problem. The major problem of cloud coverage can probably be eliminated by look ahead pointing, multiple ground stations, and knowledge of weather conditions to control the pointing. Most certainly, optical communications offer a new spectral region to relieve the RF bands and very high data communications rates that will be required in less than 10 years to solve the communications problems on Earth.

Hendricks, Herbert D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the stability of robotic systems with random communication rates

Control problems of sampled data systems which are subject to random sample rate variations and delays are studied. Due to the rapid growth of the use of computers more and more systems are controlled digitally. Complex systems such as space telerobotic systems require the integration of a number of subsystems at different hierarchical levels. While many subsystems may run on a single processor, some subsystems require their own processor or processors. The subsystems are integrated into functioning systems through communications. Communications between processes sharing a single processor are also subject to random delays due to memory management and interrupt latency. Communications between processors involve random delays due to network access and to data collisions. Furthermore, all control processes involve delays due to casual factors in measuring devices and to signal processing. Traditionally, sampling rates are chosen to meet the worst case communication delay. Such a strategy is wasteful as the processors are then idle a great proportion of the time; sample rates are not as high as possible resulting in poor performance or in the over specification of control processors; there is the possibility of missing data no matter how low the sample rate is picked. Asymptotical stability with probability one for randomly sampled multi-dimensional linear systems is studied. A sufficient condition for the stability is obtained. This condition is so simple that it can be applied to practical systems. A design procedure is also shown.

Kobayashi, H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The physics and chemistry of the L134N molecular core

The dark cloud L134N is studied in detail via millimeter- and centimeter-wavelength emission-line spectra. A high-density core of molecular gas exists in L134N which has a kinetic temperature of about 12 K, a peak molecular hydrogen density of about 10 exp 4.5/cu cm, and a mass of about 23 solar. The core may be the site of future star formation. Maps of emission from (C-18)O, CS, H(C-13)O(+), SO, NH3, and C3H2 reveal morphologically different distributions resulting in part from both varying physical conditions within the cloud and optical depth effects. Significant differences also exist which are probably due to chemical abundance variations. A consistent set of LTE chemical abundances has been estimated at as many as seven positions, which can be used to constrain chemical models of dark clouds.

Swade, Daryl A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An atlas of mixed-morphology pairs

Current theories of galaxy formation imply that environment is the most important factor in deciding whether a collapsing region becomes a spiral galaxy or an elliptical galaxy. If this is the case, then isolated pairs comprising a galaxy of each morphology provide an especially interesting test, since, strictly speaking, they should not exist. The first phase of studying E-S pairs is to define a sample which is genuinely isolated and genuinely E-S. The catalog compiled by Karachentsev is the most useful Northern Hemisphere starting point, containing 603 pairs which obeyed certain well-defined angular isolation criteria. All of these pairs now have velocities, enabling further removal of at least some of the non-physical binaries. The conventional cutoff at 500 km s(exp -1) was used for this purpose. However, the morphological types were estimated from Palomar Sky Survey prints, and are consequently not very accurate. It was therefore decided to obtain good charge coupled device (CCD) images in the B-band of all pairs from the Karachentsev sample which were classified as either E-S (73 pairs) or E-SO (91 pairs), for a total of 164 pairs. This includes the 24 pairs with known redshift differences greater than 500 km s(exp -1) (9 E-S and 15 E-SO), which were also imaged in this survey, not only for completeness but also in case the criteria were later changed, or the redshifts were found to be in error. A total of 198 CCD frames were obtained between February 1986 and the present, with most of the observations being completed by the summer of 1987. A number of missing stragglers and replacements for poor quality images were taken more recently. Most observations used the number 1-0.9m telescope at Kitt Peak, with a few frames from the 2.1m. Some pairs required more than one image due to their separation. The morphological study did not require photometric conditions, but calibrations were made for almost all images anyway, and the weather was probably photometric at least half of the time, at least to an accuracy of around 0.1 magnitudes. The results of this first phase will be published in the form of an Atlas, from which any interested readers will be able to select their own sub-sample using their preferred morphological criteria.

Sharp, N. A.↗