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At least 451 records · Page 25

Multi-system analysis of offshore geologic carbon storage: a review of open-source data science solutions

Geologic carbon storage projects are maturing worldwide and the footprint of deployment in the offshore is expanding. At present, there are ten projects in operation or that have been completed, more than 50 in construction and development, and dozens of characterization studies completed or underway. Offshore geologic carbon storage offers potential benefits over onshore geologic carbon storage. These offshore projects are generally remote in location, distant from population centers, and avoid complicated pore space rights while having abundant prospective storage potential. Some offshore fields targeted for carbon storage have comparatively fewer prior borehole penetrations except for areas that have been explored for petroleum production, minimizing potential issues such as pressure interference and infrastructure impacts. Yet offshore geologic carbon storage projects face distinctive technical and economic challenges, such as seafloor geohazards (e.g., seabed instability), expensive maritime transport, and meteorological-oceanographic conditions that can damage infrastructure and impact operations. Analytical capabilities and improved computational speeds have advanced engineering, earth and energy sciences in the wake of the arrival of modern data science over the last decade. These advancements have created an opportunity for integrated, multi-systems modeling approaches utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning that are no longer limited by computational issues. Analytical tools developed alongside this advancement in data science can be leveraged to calibrate the potential advantages and challenges of carbon storage operations in the offshore. New methods and approaches that incorporate data science to analyze multiple aspects of engineered and natural systems can provide insights that complement the characterization and onsite engineering that traditional commercial and operational software addresses. These new methods and approaches can potentially improve the outcome of energy operations and carbon storage. Providing multi-system, science-driven data analytics enhances the knowledge base that offshore developers, operators, and regulatory bodies may draw from to improve offshore site selection and operational efficiency. Here, we provide a brief synopsis of geologic carbon storage efforts to date, an overview of the engineered and natural systems involved in offshore geologic carbon storage, and a review of publicly available, open-source, offshore and/or carbon storage related data- and science-driven tools developed by 2010 or later that are suitable for screening and assessing regions for offshore geologic carbon storage.

artificial intelligence↗

Overview of CFD flow modeling and validation: NASA. Ames Research Center

NASA Ames Center personnel presented data on stages of code development and corresponding experiments in the application of computational fluid dynamics for aeronautical investigations. Specific subjects included algorithms, grid generation, facilities, instrumentation, and data acquisition. Numerical simulation and flow modelling were described to show the procedure for calibration and validation.

Marvin, Joe G.↗

Hypersonic Navier Stokes Comparisons to Orbiter Flight Data

Hypersonic chemical nonequilibrium simulations of low earth orbit entry flow fields are becoming increasingly commonplace as software and computational capabilities become more capable. However, development of robust and accurate software to model these environments will always encounter a significant barrier in developing a suite of high quality calibration cases. The US3D hypersonic nonequilibrium Navier Stokes analysis capability has been favorably compared to a number of wind tunnel test cases. Extension of the calibration basis for this software to Orbiter flight conditions will provide an incremental increase in confidence. As part of the Orbiter Boundary Layer Transition Flight Experiment and the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements project, NASA is performing entry flight testing on the Orbiter to provide valuable aerothermodynamic heating data. An increase in interest related to orbiter entry environments is resulting from this activity. With the advent of this new data, comparisons of the US3D software to the new flight testing data is warranted. This paper will provide information regarding the framework of analyses that will be applied with the US3D analysis tool. In addition, comparisons will be made to entry flight testing data provided by the Orbiter BLT Flight Experiment and HYTHIRM projects. If data from digital scans of the Orbiter windward surface become available, simulations will also be performed to characterize the difference in surface heating between the CAD reference OML and the digitized surface provided by the surface scans.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

Combined Experimental and Modeling Study of the Interactions of Acid Gas with Common Spacecraft Surfaces for Fire Safety Applications

A fire in a spacecraft poses detrimental consequences and risks mission success in addition to crew safety. This is compounded during long-duration missions when the crew has limited options to recover from a fire. A common spacecraft fire concern is the smoldering of wire insulation, typically made from Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE). This creates acid gases such as Hydrogen Chloride (HCl), Hydrogen Fluoride (HF) and Hydrogen Cyanide (HCN). These poisonous gases are hazardous to the crew. They also interact with common surfaces within the spacecraft more than dominant combustion products such as CO2 and H2O. This makes them more difficult to track for potential fire detection techniques, or for postfire clean-up. It is imperative to be able to understand and predict the fate of these poisonous species in a microgravity environment in order to design a safe vehicle. HCl interacts with a number of materials inside a spacecraft. Primary among these materials is aluminum, which is abundantly used due to its strong and light weight nature. Aluminum has a natural oxide layer that protects it from corrosion but is typically treated to enhance this oxide layer. Among these treatments is a chromate conversion coating (CCC), which provides a thin enough protective oxide layer to still conduct electricity, and a traditional anodized material that has a thicker oxide layer that does not conduct electricity. Nomex is another common material found inside a spacecraft. It is a flame-resistant woven polymer that is related to nylon. This commercially available material is used for cargo storage bags and as a fire barrier. Physics-based models were developed to predict the uptake of HCl by these materials. The ultimate objective of these models is to predict the fate of HCl within the spacecraft so that sensors can be placed in meaningful locations in future missions based on the model predictions. To support these modeling efforts, experiments were performed in a cast acrylic test cell that measured the difference between the inlet and outlet concentration of HCl after inserting a sample rod of the test material. Different uptake capacities were realized for each type of sample tested. A computational fluid dynamics model (CFD) model of the reactor was then constructed that used a one-step global reaction rate with calibratable reaction (or kinetic) constants. These constants were calibrated to match the HCl uptake on the CCC aluminum samples, and the same kinetic constants were then tested for the stock and anodized aluminum samples. Model predictions matched the experimental data for the stock aluminum, and to a much lesser extent, the anodized aluminum. The model was additionally validated at different flow rates, sample surface areas, and inlet concentrations, and showed good agreement for all stock and CCC samples. The model did not accurately predict the HCl uptake in the anodized samples compared to the other two types of aluminum. Adjusting the kinetic constants and transport properties did little to improve the prediction. X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) was used to determine that the oxide layer thickness of anodized aluminum is approximately 5,000 nm, compared to 250 nm for CCC and 50 nm for stock. XPS also revealed presence of chlorine further down in the aluminum oxide layer in anodized samples than CCC and stock samples after the samples were saturated with HCl, indicating that accounting for diffusion of HCl into the oxide layer is important for accurate prediction of HCl uptake onto anodized aluminum. Consequently, a multi-scale model was developed and tested. First, a single pore inside the anodized aluminum oxide layer was modeled and is referred to as the pore-scale model. In this model, HCl diffused through the pore and reacted with the aluminum oxide pore wall to create aluminum chloride. The sample was then saturated when the mass transfer resistance through the growing aluminum chloride layer became too large for the HCl to reach the aluminum oxide wall and continue the reaction. This pore-scale model was coupled to the reactor-scale model using a concentration-dependent diffusion coefficient, resulting in much more accurate predictions (approximately half the sum square error of the aforementioned reactor-scale model that produced good agreement for stock and CCC) for a variety of operating conditions. The amount of water vapor or relative humidity (RH) in the flow during a reactor experiment was determined to influence HCl uptake. Experiments were performed to understand the interaction of gaseous HCl with aluminum surfaces in the presence of water vapor. The results show that increasing levels of RH increased the capacity of aluminum to adsorb HCl but decreased the capacity of Nomex to uptake HCl. A series of tests were performed on individual aluminum samples after they had been saturated with a fixed concentration of HCl in dry air conditions with the goal of determining how their HCl uptake capacity changes after various treatments with water relative to the original saturation tests. HCl-saturated aluminum samples subjected to a second dry air flow at the same HCl concentration as the original test had an uptake of 23.5% of the original sample with no treatment in between. Saturated aluminum samples subjected to an air flow with a RH of 90% in between tests had an uptake of 35.6% of the original. Saturated aluminum samples submerged in distilled water for 12 hours in between tests had an uptake of 82.2% of the original sample. Previously saturated aluminum tested with HCl and a 50% RH air flow resulted in similar uptake characteristics in multiple repeated tests. The experiments show the profound effect water vapor has on HCl uptake onto aluminum surfaces. In the samples subjected to water vapor or liquid water, capillary condensation and capillary diffusion alters the transport of HCl significantly. A model was proposed that developed a relationship between RH and the coefficient of HCl diffusion in aluminum chloride. This produced an “S-shaped” curve with diffusion coefficient as a function of RH, with 45% RH represented as the point where the diffusion coefficient is halfway between no water saturation and 100% water saturation in the aluminum chloride product layer. No difference in uptake characteristics for the experiment or model were realized between 50% and 62% RH. The results from the large-scale microgravity experiment, Saffire, are discussed as they pertain to the fate of HCl throughout a spacecraft. HCl was released, both as a standalone event, and in concurrence with the burning of a structured cloth. These events only produced a small response in the far field HCl sensor, while a PMMA burn that did not produce HCl had a significantly greater response. A ground-based large-scale facility was constructed to flow acid gas at the scale and configuration realized in the Saffire experiments. A CFD model of this duct was constructed to test kinetic parameters developed in this work at a larger scale and different geometric configuration and to predict the results of the large-scale facility. The models developed in this work were used to interpret the results of the microgravity tests and lead the discussion on what further experiments and models are needed in order to predict the fate of acid gas in a spacecraft environment. To summarize, the major contributions of this work are as follows: the capacity to uptake HCl, with and without the presence of water vapor, was measured for a variety of real spacecraft surfaces. Several different models (single reactor-scale, multiscale, spacecraft-scale) were developed and with the aid of modeling, the rate of uptake for those surfaces was also predicted and validated. The kinetic parameters determined from the small-scale reactor experiments and models were used to predict large-scale and microgravity tests. Conclusions from this research will be used in the design of spacecraft vehicles and large-scale microgravity fire safety experiments. The models built by this work will aid designers in sensor placement and could be used to predict acid gas transport from fires in partial gravity, as would be seen in Lunar and Martian habitats.

fire safety↗

Evaluation of an open forecasting challenge to assess skill of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease prediction

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗

MatCal Users Guide: Release 1.3.0

Any continuum mechanics model will require three components: (1) a discretized geometry of the boundary value problem being studied, (2) the partial differential equations to be solved, and (3) the initial conditions and boundary conditions for the problem. To describe material behavior in these computational models, material models contribute to (2) the underlying equations and, occasionally, to (3) the initial conditions for the simulation. These material models can exhibit a mathematical form that is empirically based, based on first principles, or developed from both empirical observations and known physics. In general, these models are meant to represent a class of materials with well understood behavior. As a result, material models have parameters that must be tuned or calibrated so that the model response matches characterization data available for the specific material it is intended to represent when used to simulate a specific system. For simple models, such as isotropic, linear elastic materials in solid mechanics, this calibration process can be a simple analytical calculation directly extracting the parameters from experimental measurements. For complex models that have many inputs and require many characterization datasets to adequately identify the material behavior, the model calibration process can require an inverse problem approach where an optimization is performed to tune the model parameters to the available data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MODIS Aqua Reflective Solar Bands Calibration for NASA's R2018 Ocean Color Products

Remote sensing ocean color products have stringent requirements on radiometric calibration stability. To address a calibration deficiency in MODIS Aqua in recent years, the NASA Ocean Biological Processing Group (OBPG) developed a new calibration for the reflective solar bands. Prior to the reprocessing of NASA's ocean color products for 2018 (R2018), the OBPG MODIS products had been based on calibration provided by the MODIS Calibration Support Team (MCST). Several modifications were made to the MCST calibration approach to improve the calibration accuracy for ocean color products. These include: 1) apply 936nm detector normalization to solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM) data to reduce coherent noise; 2) modeling solar diffuser (SD) degradation wavelength dependency to determine SD degradation in near-infrared and shortwave infrared wavelength; 3) detector gains are computed using SD screen-closed data to better match ocean radiance levels in all bands; 4) a simple atmospheric correction is performed to reduce bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) effects in desert trends; 5) modulated relative spectral response (RSR) impact on ocean data is estimated and used to adjust the calibration coefficients. 6) smoothing is used to characterize the temporal change in calibration, and response versus scan angle (RVS) changes are characterized using 2nd order polynomials to improve spatial/temporal calibration stability. Relative to the previous R2014 ocean color products, the R2018 calibration removed the suspect late-mission global trends in blue-band water-leaving reflectance, and some anomalously large short-term variability (spikes) in the temporal trend of chlorophyll concentration. This paper will describe the OBPG calibration with a focus on the differences between the MCST and OBPG approaches.

calibration↗

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Complementary Study of Radiative Heat Transfer and Flow Physics from Moderate-scale Hydrocarbon Pool Fire Simulations

As part of the Advanced Simulation and Computing Verification and Validation (ASCVV) program, a 0.3-m diameter hydrocarbon pool fire with multiple fuels was modeled and simulated. In the study described in this report, systematic examination was performed on the radiation model used in a series of coupled Fuego/Nalu simulations. A calibration study was done with a medium-scale methanol pool fire and the effect of calibration traced throughout the radiation model. This analysis provided a more detailed understanding of the effect of radiation model parameters on each other and on other quantities in the simulations. Heptane simulation results were also examined using this approach and possible areas for further improvement of the models were identified. The effect of soot on radiative losses was examined by comparing heptane and methanol results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Boundary-Aware Adversarial Learning Domain Adaption and Active Learning for Cross-Sensor Building Extraction

The use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for building extraction from remote sensing images has been widely studied and many public datasets have been made available for accelerating development of these CNN models. Yet adapting pretrained models at scale in real-world scenarios remains a challenging task. The main barrier is that certain new labels are still needed to compensate for domain shifting between the labeled data and new images that potentially cover new geographic locations or that are from a different sensor. In this article, we propose to add informatively labeled samples from a new image pool under the paradigm of active learning. To select the most useful samples based on model uncertainty, we first tackle the problem of uncalibrated uncertainty estimation due to distribution shifting by adapting feature extractors with boundary-based adversarial learning. Calibrated uncertainty is used as the query criterion in the active learning process, where the most uncertain samples are selected for annotation and included for model retraining. The proposed workflow was tested with three data pairs in which each workflow represents a scenario often encountered in real-world applications, including adapting pretrained models to new images collected with different sensors or to new geographic areas where appearances and types of buildings are very different. Compared to several baselines, including random sampling, temperature scaling (a well-known uncertainty calibration technique), different query strategies, and active domain adaptation methods, the proposed workflow shows that strategically querying a smaller set of samples for labeling achieves comparable or better building extraction performance. The proposed method reduces the number of labeled samples required to achieve sufficient model accuracy, thus significantly reducing hundreds of person-hours for labeled data creation. In addition, we include a few considerations when deploying this workflow in a GPU cluster that can be easily adapted to achieve operational building extraction model retraining.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Black carbon aerosol number and mass concentration measurements by picosecond short-range elastic backscatter lidar

Abstract Black carbon aerosol emissions are recognized as contributors to global warming and air pollution. There remains, however, a lack of techniques to remotely measure black carbon aerosol particles with high range and time resolution. This article presents a direct and contact-free remote technique to estimate the black carbon aerosol number and mass concentration at a few meters from the emission source. This is done using the Colibri instrument based on a novel technique, referred to here as Picosecond Short-Range Elastic Backscatter Lidar (PSR-EBL). To address the complexity of retrieving lidar products at short measurement ranges, we apply a forward inversion method featuring radiometric lidar calibration. Our method is based on an extension of a well-established light-scattering model, the Rayleigh–Debye–Gans for Fractal-Aggregates (RDG-FA) theory, which computes an analytical expression of lidar parameters. These parameters are the backscattering cross-sections and the lidar ratio for black carbon fractal aggregates. Using a small-scale Jet A-1 kerosene pool fire, we demonstrate the ability of the technique to quantify the aerosol number and mass concentration with centimetre range-resolution and millisecond time-resolution.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Adaptive Modeling of the International Space Station Electrical Power System

Software simulations provide NASA engineers the ability to experiment with spacecraft systems in a computer-imitated environment. Engineers currently develop software models that encapsulate spacecraft system behavior. These models can be inaccurate due to invalid assumptions, erroneous operation, or system evolution. Increasing accuracy requires manual calibration and domain-specific knowledge. This thesis presents a method for automatically learning system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques are applied to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). We also explore a knowledge fusion approach that uses traditional engineered EPS models to supplement the learned models. We observed that these engineered EPS models provide useful background knowledge to reduce predictive error spikes when confronted with making predictions in situations that are quite different from the training scenarios used when learning the model. Evaluations using ISS sensor data and existing EPS models demonstrate the success of the adaptive approach. Our experimental results show that adaptive modeling provides reductions in model error anywhere from 80% to 96% over these existing models. Final discussions include impending use of adaptive modeling technology for ISS mission operations and the need for adaptive modeling in future NASA lunar and Martian exploration.

Thomas, Justin Ray↗

Artemis I Space Launch System Base Heat Shield Thermal Protection System Performance

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage base heat shield experienced the highest external heating environments on the entire launch vehicle during Artemis I ascent flight. This result was consistent with design predictions. The base heat shield experiences P50 cork combustion dynamics at low altitudes, plume-induced recirculation at moderate altitudes and then in-space base flow physics out to Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO). The base heat shield thermal protection system (TPS) is composed of a P50 cork ablator which is bonded to a substrate. The heat shield protects the gimbal actuation system, RS-25 turbomachinery systems and other aft section sensitive components during ascent. This paper estimates the base heat shield TPS performance from Artemis I using flight data from the NASA Langley Research Center’s Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery (SCIFLI) Airborne Multispectral Imager (SAMI), development flight instrumentation (DFI) and other TPS recession flight measurements. Predictions from computational and ground test-derived engineering ablation models and observations are also applied. Since no base heat shield substrate thermocouple data were obtained for Artemis I, an estimate of the TPS performance data is derived here. This data assesses thermal margin of the SLS Core Stage base heat shield and best informs the Artemis II Crewed mission to the moon.

aerothermodynamics↗

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

Binebrink, A. L.↗

A practical extension of the recursive multi-fidelity model for the emulation of hole closure experiments

We report in regimes of high strain rate, the strength of materials often cannot be measured directly in experiments. Instead, the strength is inferred based on an experimental observable, such as a change in shape, that is matched by simulations supported by a known strength model. In hole closure experiments, the rate and degree to which a central hole in a plate of material closes during a dynamic loading event are used to infer material strength parameters. Due to the complexity of the experiment, many computationally expensive, three-dimensional simulations are necessary to train an emulator for calibration or other analyses. These simulations can be run at multiple grid resolutions, where dense grids are slower but more accurate. In an effort to reduce the computational cost, a combination of simulations with different resolutions can be combined to develop an accurate emulator within a limited training time. We explore the novel design and construction of an appropriate functional recursive multi-fidelity emulator of a strength model for tantalum in hole closure experiments that can be applied to arbitrarily large training data. Hence, by formulating a multi-fidelity model to employ low-fidelity simulations, we were able to reduce the error of our emulator by approximately 81% with only an approximately 1.6% increase in computing resource utilization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The reactive flow evolution of the polymer-bonded explosive PBX 9502: Experiments and model validation in extreme pressure regimes

The shock-to-detonation transition properties of the triaminotrinitrobenzene based PBX 9502 high explosive (HE) are experimentally and computationally explored in extremely high input pressure conditions. These include both slightly sub-Chapman–Jouguet and overdriven input pressure conditions, namely, ∼25 and ∼31 GPa, respectively. Our experiments capture the transient buildup of a shock-induced reaction via measurement of HE and polymethyl methacrylate window interface particle velocity profiles for a variety of sample thicknesses for this insensitive HE. These observations necessitate extremely thin explosive samples, and the high rates of reaction provide a considerable challenge to optical diagnostics. Samples at these thicknesses also provide an opportunity for evaluation of potential micro-structure effects on the resulting shock-to-detonation-transition measurements. To address this, the thin samples are also characterized via x-ray micro-computed tomography. Finally, a pair of previously established continuum-level detonation performance modeling approaches for PBX 9502 were used to analyze the experiments. The employed model variants crucially differ in their definition of each model’s empirical reaction rate functional form, utilization of shock state quantities, and local flow variable dependencies. As a result, the present experiments provide a novel platform to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative consequences stemming from these modeling choices in a challenging initiation scenario, largely beyond the chosen calibration range of either model. This new experimental information will provide a platform for both improved physics and model parameterizations for this well-studied explosive.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Calibration and Localization of Optically Pumped Magnetometers Using Electromagnetic Coils

In this paper, we propose a method to estimate the position, orientation, and gain of a magnetic field sensor using a set of (large) electromagnetic coils. We apply the method for calibrating an array of optically pumped magnetometers (OPMs) for magnetoencephalography (MEG). We first measure the magnetic fields of the coils at multiple known positions using a well-calibrated triaxial magnetometer, and model these discreetly sampled fields using vector spherical harmonics (VSH) functions. We then localize and calibrate an OPM by minimizing the sum of squared errors between the model signals and the OPM responses to the coil fields. We show that by using homogeneous and first-order gradient fields, the OPM sensor parameters (gain, position, and orientation) can be obtained from a set of linear equations with pseudo-inverses of two matrices. The currents that should be applied to the coils for approximating these low-order field components can be determined based on the VSH models. Computationally simple initial estimates of the OPM sensor parameters follow. As a first test of the method, we placed a fluxgate magnetometer at multiple positions and estimated the RMS position, orientation, and gain errors of the method to be 1.0 mm, 0.2°, and 0.8%, respectively. Lastly, we calibrated a 48-channel OPM array. The accuracy of the OPM calibration was tested by using the OPM array to localize magnetic dipoles in a phantom, which resulted in an average dipole position error of 3.3 mm. The results demonstrate the feasibility of using electromagnetic coils to calibrate and localize OPMs for MEG.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗