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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

CFD simulations of electric motor end ring cooling for improved thermal management

Proper thermal management of an electric motor for vehicle applications extends its operating range. One cooling approach is to impinge Automatic Transmission Fluid (ATF) onto the rotor end ring. Increased ATF coverage correlates to enhanced heat transfer. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analytical tools provide a mechanism to assess motor thermal management prior to hardware fabrication. The complexity of the fluid flow (e.g., jet atomization, interface tracking, wall impingement) and heat transfer makes these simulations challenging. Computational costs are high when solving these flows on high-speed rotating meshes. Typically, a Volume-of Fluid (VOF) technique (i.e., two-fluid system) is used to resolve ATF dynamics within this rotating framework. Suitable numerical resolution of the relevant physics for thin films under strong inertial forces at high rotor speeds is computationally expensive, further increasing the run times. In this work, a numerical study of rotor-ring cooling by ATF is presented using a patent automated Cartesian cut-cell based method coupled with Automatic Mesh Refinement (AMR). This approach automatically creates the Cartesian mesh on-the-fly and can effectively handle complex rotating geometries by adaptively refining the mesh based on local gradients in the flow field which results in better resolution of the air-ATF interface. A Single non-inertial Reference Frame (SRF) approach is used to account for the rotating geometry and to further improve the overall computational efficiency. Quasi-steady state conditions are targeted in the analysis of the results. Important physics such as ATF jet structure, velocity detail near the air-jet interface, ATF coverage/accumulation on the ring surface, and cooling capacity are presented for a low-resolution Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS), high-resolution RANS, and high-resolution Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) models. Computations are scaled over hundreds of cores on a supercomputer to maximize turnaround time. Each numerical approach is shown to capture the general trajectory of the oil jet prior to surface impingement. The high-resolution LES simulation, however, is superior in capturing small scale details and heat transfer between the free jet and surrounding air.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

DS-TIDE: Harnessing Dynamical Systems for Efficient Time-Independent Differential Equation Solving

Time-Independent Differential Equations (TIDEs) are central to modeling equilibrium behavior across a wide range of scientific and engineering domains, from electrostatics to porous media flow. Conventional numerical solvers offer reliable solutions but incur significant computational costs due to fine-grained discretization and iterative procedures. Machine learning-based approaches address this by replacing iterative solving processes with one-time inference; however, their sophisticated models require extensive training resources that often exceed those of traditional solvers. Consequently, designing a TIDE solver that achieves high accuracy, broad applicability, and exceptional computational efficiency remains a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we propose DS-TIDE, a novel hardware solver that is inspired by, and subsequently leverages, the intrinsic connection between Dynamical Systems (DS) and Differential Equations (DEs) to efficiently and accurately solve TIDEs. DS-TIDE employs a CMOS-compatible DS-based processor, whose physical states evolve under carefully designed DE-driven dynamics and naturally converge to equilibrium -- the solution of the target TIDE -- within ~1µs on a ~1-watt DS-TIDE processor. To enhance expressivity, DS-TIDE incorporates Heterogeneous Dynamics with Temporal Layering (HDTL), which solves TIDEs through a three-stage DS evolution -- conditioning, solving, and decoding -- each governed by specialized dynamics. The entire evolution process is analogous to an infinitely deep neural network temporally unrolled, offering the system the capability of representing complex equations. Furthermore, DS-TIDE is equipped with an on-device DS-DE Auto-Alignment mechanism that dynamically adapts intrinsic hardware dynamics within milliseconds, effectively aligning the system’s dynamics to diverse target DEs. Experimental results across TIDEs from a wide range of scientific and engineering domains demonstrate that DS-TIDE achieves ~10^3× speedup, ~10^5× energy savings, and competitive or superior accuracy compared to state-of-the-art numerical and ML-based solvers.

Liu, Chuan↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Computational Information Criterion for Particle-Tracking with Sparse or Noisy Data

Traditional probabilistic methods for the simulation of advection-diffusion equations (ADEs) often overlook the entropic contribution of the discretization, e.g., the number of particles, within associated numerical methods. Many times, the gain in accuracy of a highly discretized numerical model is outweighed by its associated computational costs or the noise within the data. Herein, we address the question of how many particles are needed in a simulation to best approximate and estimate parameters in one-dimensional advective-diffusive transport. To do so, we use the well-known Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and a recently-developed correction called the Computational Information Criterion (COMIC) to guide the model selection process. Random-walk and mass-transfer particle tracking methods are employed to solve the model equations at various levels of discretization. Numerical results demonstrate that the COMIC provides an optimal number of particles that can describe a more efficient model in terms of parameter estimation and model prediction compared to the model selected by the AIC even when the data is sparse or noisy, the sampling volume is not uniform throughout the physical domain, or the error distribution of the data is non-IID Gaussian.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct numerical simulations of turbulent reacting flows with shock waves and stiff chemistry using many-core/GPU acceleration

Compressible reacting flows may display sharp spatial variation related to shocks, contact discontinuities or reactive zones embedded within relatively smooth regions. The presence of such phenomena emphasizes the relevance of shock-capturing schemes such as the weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) scheme as an essential ingredient of the numerical solver. However, these schemes are complex and have more computational cost than the simple high-order compact or non-compact schemes. In this paper, we present the implementation of a seventh-order, minimally-dissipative mapped WENO (WENO7M) scheme in a newly developed direct numerical simulation (DNS) code called KAUST Adaptive Reactive Flows Solver (KARFS). In order to make efficient use of the computer resources and reduce the solution time, without compromising the resolution requirement, the WENO routines are accelerated via graphics processing unit (GPU) computation. The performance characteristics and scalability of the code are studied using different grid sizes and block decomposition. Furthermore, the performance portability of KARFS is demonstrated on a variety of architectures including NVIDIA Tesla P100 GPUs and NVIDIA Kepler K20X GPUs. In addition, the capability and potential of the newly implemented WENO7M scheme in KARFS to perform DNS of compressible flows is also demonstrated with model problems involving shocks, isotropic turbulence, detonations and flame propagation into a stratified mixture with complex chemical kinetics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic 2D Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) model for enhanced computational efficiency

Progressing toward a future increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources, the development of effective, durable energy storage solutions becomes essential to balance supply and demand fluctuations. Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) is a long-duration thermal energy storage technology that captures excess heat generated from renewable energy sources and stores it underground for later use, enabling the efficient utilization of sustainable energy. This approach is particularly valuable in district energy networks when integrated with Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) to provide stable heating and cooling. However, traditional three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of BTES systems demand extensive computational resources, limiting their practicality for real-time and large-scale applications. This study introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) modeling approach that reduces computational costs while maintaining high accuracy. By employing a radial ring-based discretization method, the model simulates heat injection, retention, and retrieval dynamics over seasonal cycles. A new thermal-mass weighted-average temperature parameter is introduced to evaluate the performance of BTES systems. Model validation against FEFLOW simulations demonstrates a 17-fold improvement in computational speed compared to traditional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models while achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2 % during charging and 4 % during discharging. Additionally, a trade-off analysis between computational efficiency and accuracy is conducted, ensuring the model's applicability for real-world scenarios. The findings of this research contribute to the development of computationally efficient BTES models, facilitating better optimization, control, and integration into renewable energy systems. This work provides a foundation for further studies in techno-economic analysis, multi-year performance evaluation, and real-time operational strategies for BTES applications, supporting a more sustainable energy future.

2D modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Four-Component Dirac–Coulomb–Gaunt Hartree–Fock in the Pauli Spinor Representation

Four-component Dirac Hartree--Fock is an accurate mean-field method for treating molecular systems where relativistic effects are important. However, the computational cost and complexity of the two-electron interaction makes this method less common, even though we can consider the Dirac Hartree--Fock Hamiltonian the ``ground truth" of electronic structure, barring explicit quantum-electrodynamical effects. Being able to calculate these effects is then vital to the design of lower scaling methods for accurate predictions in computational spectroscopy and properties of heavy element complexes that must include relativistic effects for even qualitative accuracy. In this work, we present a Pauli quaternion formalism of maximal component- and spin-separation for computing the Dirac-Coulomb-Gaunt Hartree-Fock ground state, with a minimal floating-point-operation count algorithm. Furthermore, this approach also allows one to explicitly separate different spin physics from the two-body interactions, such as spin-free, spin-orbit, and the spin-spin contributions. Additionally, we use this formalism to examine relativistic trends in the periodic table, and analyze the basis set dependence of atomic gold and gold dimer systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic GW -GPU: Rapid Quasi-Particle Energies for Molecules beyond 10,000 Atoms

StochasticGW is a code for computing accurate quasi-particle (QP) energies of molecules and material systems in the GW approximation. StochasticGW utilizes the stochastic Resolution of the Identity (sROI) technique to enable a massively parallel implementation with computational costs that scale semilinearly with system size, allowing the method to access systems with tens of thousands of electrons. Here, we introduce a new implementation, StochasticGW-GPU, for which the main bottleneck steps have been ported to GPUs and give substantial performance improvements over previous versions of the code. We showcase the new code by computing band gaps of hydrogenated silicon clusters (Si x H y ) containing up to 10,001 atoms and 35,144 electrons, and we obtain individual QP energies with a statistical precision of better than ±0.03 eV with times-to-solution of less than 1 h.

Thomas, Phillip S. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2021

True Load Balancing for Matricized Tensor Times Khatri-Rao Product

MTTKRP is the bottleneck operation in algorithms used to compute the CP tensor decomposition. For sparse tensors, utilizing the compressed sparse fibers (CSF) storage format and the CSF-oriented MTTKRP algorithms is important for both memory and computational efficiency on distributed-memory architectures. Existing intelligent tensor partitioning models assume the computational cost of MTTKRP to be proportional to the total number of nonzeros in the tensor. However, this is not the case for the CSF-oriented MTTKRP on distributed-memory architectures. We outline two deficiencies of nonzero-based intelligent partitioning models when CSF-oriented MTTKRP operations are performed locally: failure to encode processors' computational loads and increase in total computation due to fiber fragmentation. We focus on existing fine-grain hypergraph model and propose a novel vertex weighting scheme that enables this model encode correct computational loads of processors. We also propose to augment the fine-grain model by fiber nets for reducing the increase in total computational load via minimizing fiber fragmentation. In this way, the proposed model encodes minimizing the load of the bottleneck processor. In conclusion, parallel experiments with real-world sparse tensors on up to 1024 processors prove the validity of the outlined deficiencies and demonstrate the merit of our proposed improvements in terms of parallel runtimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continuum kinetic investigation of the impact of bias potentials in the current saturation regime on sheath formation

In this work, we examine sheath formation in the presence of bias potentials in the current saturation regime for pulsed power fusion experiments. It is important to understand how the particle and heat fluxes at the wall may impact the wall material and affect electrode degradation. Here, simulations are performed using the 1X-1V Boltzmann–Poisson system for a proton–electron plasma in the presence of bias potentials ranging from 0 to 10 kV. The results indicate that the sheath near the anode remains generally the same as that of a classical sheath without the presence of a bias potential. However, the sheath near the cathode becomes more prominent with a larger potential drop, a significant decrease in the electron density, and larger sheath lengths. The spatially constant current density increases to a saturation value with the increasing bias potential. For high bias potentials, the material choice needs to consider that the anode faces significantly larger particle and heat fluxes compared to the cathode. In general, the results trend with theory with differences attributed to the simplified assumptions in the theory and the kinetic effects considered in the simulations. Due to the significant computational cost of a well resolved 1X-2V simulation, only one such simulation is performed for the 5 kV case showing higher current.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kilonova light-curve interpolation with neural networks

Kilonovae are the electromagnetic transients created by the radioactive decay of freshly synthesized elements in the environment surrounding a neutron star merger. To study the fundamental physics in these complex environments, kilonova modeling requires, in part, the use of radiative transfer simulations. The microphysics involved in these simulations results in high computational cost, prompting the use of emulators for parameter inference applications. Utilizing a training set of 22 248 high-fidelity simulations (composed of 412 unique ejecta parameter combinations evaluated at 54 viewing angles), we use a neural network to efficiently train on existing radiative transfer simulations and predict light curves for new parameters in a fast and computationally efficient manner. Our neural network can generate millions of new light curves in under a minute. We discuss our emulator's degree of off-sample reliability and parameter inference of the AT2017gfo observational data. Finally, we discuss tension introduced by multiband inference in the parameter inference results, particularly with regard to the neural network's recovery of viewing angle. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A parametric analysis of oilfield design factors affecting the detectability and characterization of electrically conductive hydrofracks

Electrical responses in the vicinity of energized steel-cased well sources offer significant potential for monitoring induced fractures. However, the high complexity of well-fracture-host models spanning multiple length scales compels analysts to simplify their numerical models due to enormous computational costs. This consequently limits our understanding regarding monitoring capabilities and the limitations of electrical measurements on realistic hydraulically fracturing systems. In this paper, we use the hierarchical finite element approach to construct geoelectric models in which geometrically complex fractures and steel-cased wells are discretely represented in 3D conducting media without sacrificing the model realism and computation efficiency. We have discovered systematic numerical analyses of the electrical responses to evaluate the influences of borehole material conductivity and the source type as well as the effects of well geometry, conductivity contrast, source location, fracture growth, and fracture propagation. Furthermore, the numerical results indicate that the borehole material property has a strong control on the electrical potentials along the production and monitoring wells. The monopole source located at a steel-cased well results in a current density distribution that decays away from the source location throughout the well length, whereas the dipole source produces a current density that dominates mainly along the dipole length. Moreover, the conductivity contrast between the fractures and host does not change the overall pattern of the electrical potentials but varies its amplitude. The fracture models near different well systems indicate that the well geometry controls the entire distribution of potentials, while the characteristics of the voltage difference profiles along the wells before and after fracturing are insensitive to the well geometry and the well in which the source is located. Further, the hydraulic-fracturing models indicate that the voltage differences along the production well before and after fracturing have strong sensitivity to fracture growth and fracture set propagation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Diffusional growth of cloud droplets in homogeneous isotropic turbulence: DNS, scaled-up DNS, and stochastic model

This paper presents a novel methodology to use direct numerical simulation (DNS) to study the impact of isotropic homogeneous turbulence on the condensational growth of cloud droplets. As shown by previous DNS studies, the impact of turbulence increases with the computational domain size, that is, with the Reynolds number, because larger eddies generate higher and longer-lasting supersaturation fluctuations that affect growth of individual cloud droplets. The traditional DNS can only simulate a limited range of scales because of the excessive computational cost that comes from resolving all scales involved, that is, from large scales at which the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is introduced down to the Kolmogorov microscale, and from following every single droplet. The novel approach is referred to as the “scaled-up DNS”. The scaling up is done in two parts, first by increasing both the computational domain and the Kolmogorov microscale and second by using super-droplets instead of real droplets. To ensure proper dissipation of TKE and scalar variance at small scales, molecular transport coefficients are appropriately scaled up with the grid length. For the scaled-up domains, say, meters and tens of meters, one needs to follow billions of real droplets. This is not computationally feasible, and so-called super-droplets are applied in scaled-up DNS simulations. Each super-droplet represents an ensemble of identical real droplets, and the number of real droplets represented by a super-droplet is referred to as the multiplicity attribute. After simple tests showing the validity of the methodology, scaled-up DNS simulations are conducted for five domains, the largest of 64 3 m 3 volume using a DNS of 256 3 grid points and various multiplicities. All simulations are carried out with vanishing mean vertical velocity and with no mean supersaturation, similarly to past DNS studies. As expected, the supersaturation fluctuations as well as the spread in droplet size distribution increase with the domain size, with the droplet radius variance increasing in time t as t 1∕2 as identified in previous DNS studies. Scaled-up simulations with different multiplicities document numerical convergence of the scaled-up solutions. Finally, we compare the scaled-up DNS results with a simple stochastic model that calculates supersaturation fluctuations based on the vertical velocity fluctuations updated using the Langevin equation. Overall, the results document similar scaling to previous small-domain DNS simulations and support the notion that the stochastic subgrid-scale model is a valuable tool for the multi-scale simulation of droplet spectral evolution applying a large-eddy simulation model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of Methane Oxycombustion in Supercritical Carbon Dioxide

The Allam-Fetvedt Cycle (AFC) offers the potential for electricity generation with minimal or even negative carbon emissions by using oxycombustion in supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2). Because of the extreme high temperatures and pressures encountered in these systems, simulation of oxycombustion requires use of a complex equation of state such as the modified Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK) equation, coupled with equally complex correlations for transport properties. The current work simulates a model combustor using both an ideal gas equation of state and the SRK equation of state. The model combustor features a jet of CH4 mixing with and reacting with O2 in the sCO2 ambient. Two jet configurations are considered: one of pure CH4, and one of CH4 mixed with sCO2. Comparison of results shows that key output properties such as combustor temperature and flow distribution are impacted by the choice of equations of state. Inspection of simulation results shows that mixing and reaction rates, as well as the uniformity of the flow, are impacted by the choice of equation of state. These results show that even though use of a complex equation of state greatly increases the computational costs of these simulations, it is critical to accurately capturing the physics of these systems.

computational fluid dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Mesh Refinement Simulations for Turbulent Reacting Flow

With the increased availability of exascale computing hardware, detailed simulations of realistic devices can be performed at practically relevant time and length scales. Insights into the multiscale driving mechanisms in compressible reacting flow systems with complex geometry, such as combustors, can be used for design optimization and technology improvements. However, to effectively perform these simulations, advanced numerical algorithms must be used to maintain solution accuracy without incurring undue computational costs. PeleC, part of the Pele suite of codes, leverages block-structured adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) through the AMReX library to capture fine-scale flow features in compressible reacting flows. In this talk, we discuss recent improvements to the numerical algorithms, particularly in regard to describing flows at complex boundary structures, and PeleC's performance on exascale computing hardware. We will demonstrate that PeleC is well-suited for modern, extreme-scale, heterogenous compute platforms.

combustion↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗