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At least 451 records · Page 25

Evaluating fine-resolution, regional outputs of a variable resolution global climate model

Climate models have been used to study water resources and regional hydrologic responses to climate change, but climate model outputs must be downscaled to provide relevant regional data. However, the accuracy of this regional data is limited by uncertainties across and within downscaling methods, uncertainty across global outputs, and discontinuities at downscaled boundaries. A new alternative to traditional downscaling is a variable resolution model that incorporates fine-resolution regions directly into a coarse-resolution, global climate simulation in order to capture contiguous dynamics across resolution boundaries. In this study, we used the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to generate one-eighth degree (14 km) fine-resolution outputs for the western U.S. and eastern China from 1970-2006. We focus our evaluation on precipitaiton, temperature, snow pack, solar radiation, and wind. We compare the model outputs with remote-sensing-based precipitation data, and both reanalysis and gridded weather station data for precipitation and temperature. VR-CESM generally has a cold bias in winter and a warm bias in summer in the western U.S., which compensate each other to reduce the annual bias. In eastern China, however, the sign of temperature biases are more consistent throughout the year with cold biases in the higher mountains and warm biases throughout most of the rest of the region. Precipitation biases are dependent upon reference data, and show slight overestimation in high mountain regions in both the U.S. and China with respect to gridded weather station data. Simulated snow cover in the western U.S. is reasonable compared to remote sensing data, but snow cover and snow water equivalent have larger biases when compared to reanalysis data. In eastern China there are widespread snow cover biases compared to remote sensing data. VR-CESM underestimates downward shortwave radiation to a greater degree in summer than in winter, and underestimates surface layer windspeed over mountains to a greater degree than in other areas. Comparison between VR-CESM and a coarser simulation (1-degree Beijing Climate Center model) shows reduced precipitation biases in the mountainous regions with finer resolution, indicating the value of variable-resolution modeling for reigonal studies.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

University of Kentucky measurements of wind, temperature, pressure and humidity in support of LAPSE-RATE using multisite fixed-wing and rotorcraft unmanned aerial systems

In July 2018, unmanned aerial systems (UASs) were deployed to measure the properties of the lower atmosphere within the San Luis Valley, an elevated valley in Colorado, USA, as part of the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation – a Remotely-piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE). Measurement objectives included detailing boundary layer transition, canyon cold-air drainage and convection initiation within the valley. Details of the contribution to LAPSE-RATE made by the University of Kentucky are provided here, which include measurements by seven different fixed-wing and rotorcraft UASs totaling over 178 flights with validated data. The data from these coordinated UAS flights consist of thermodynamic and kinematic variables (air temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed and direction) and include vertical profiles up to 900 m above the ground level and horizontal transects up to 1500 m in length. These measurements have been quality controlled and are openly available in the Zenodo LAPSE-RATE community data repository (https://zenodo.org/communities/lapse-rate/, last access: 23 July 2020), with the University of Kentucky data available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3701845 (Bailey et al., 2020).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comparative study of two-way and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US: performance evaluation and impacts of chemistry–meteorology feedbacks on air quality

The two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model has been developed to more realistically represent the atmosphere by accounting for complex chemistry–meteorology feedbacks. In this study, we present a comparative analysis of two-way (with consideration of both aerosol direct and indirect effects) and offline coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over the contiguous US. Long-term (5 years from 2008 to 2012) simulations using WRF-CMAQ with both offline and two-way coupling modes are carried out with anthropogenic emissions based on multiple years of the U.S. National Emission Inventory and chemical initial and boundary conditions derived from an advanced Earth system model (i.e., a modified version of the Community Earth System Model/Community Atmospheric Model). The comprehensive model evaluations show that both two-way WRF-CMAQ and WRF-only simulations perform well for major meteorological variables such as temperature at 2 m, relative humidity at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m, precipitation (except for against the National Climatic Data Center data), and shortwave and longwave radiation. Both two-way and offline CMAQ also show good performance for ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). Due to the consideration of aerosol direct and indirect effects, two-way WRF-CMAQ shows improved performance over offline coupled WRF and CMAQ in terms of spatiotemporal distributions and statistics, especially for radiation, cloud forcing, O 3 , sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon, tropospheric O 3 residual, and column nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). For example, the mean biases have been reduced by more than 10 W m –2 for shortwave radiation and cloud radiative forcing and by more than 2 ppb for max 8 h O 3 . However, relatively large biases still exist for cloud predictions, some PM 2.5 species, and PM 10 that warrant follow-up studies to better understand those issues. The impacts of chemistry–meteorological feedbacks are found to play important roles in affecting regional air quality in the US by reducing domain-average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), O 3 , nitrogen oxide (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and PM 2.5 by 3.1 % (up to 27.8 %), 4.2 % (up to 16.2 %), 6.6 % (up to 50.9 %), 5.8 % (up to 46.6 %), and 8.6 % (up to 49.1 %), respectively, mainly due to reduced radiation, temperature, and wind speed. The overall performance of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model achieved in this work is generally good or satisfactory and the improved performance for two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ should be considered along with other factors in developing future model applications to inform policy making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Heliospheric Observations of Energetic Particles

Heliospheric observations of energetic particles have shown that, on long time averages, a consistent v^-5 power-law index arises even in the absence of transient events. This implies an ubiquitous acceleration process present in the solar wind that is required to generate these power-law tails and maintain them against adiabatic losses and coulomb-collisions which will cool and thermalize the plasma respectively. Though the details of this acceleration process are being debated within the community, most agree that the energy required for these tails comes from fluctuations in the magnetic field which are damped as the energy is transferred to particles. Given this source for the tail, is it then reasonable to assume that the turbulent LISM should give rise to such a power-law tail as well? IBEX observations clearly show a power-law tail of index approximately -5 in energetic neutral atoms. The simplest explanation for the origins of these ENAs are that they are energetic ions which have charge-exchanged with a neutral atom. However, this would imply that energetic ions possess a v^-5 power-law distribution at keV energies at the source of these ENAs. If the source is presumed to be the LISM, it provides additional options for explaining the, so called, IBEX ribbon. This presentation will discuss some of these options as well as potential mechanisms for the generation of a power-law spectrum in the LISM.

Summerlin, Errol J.↗

The biogeography of soil and airborne fungi in the Southwestern USA in relation to climate and vegetation

To assess how fungal dispersal might respond to climate change, we examined how climate and geography influence the regional distribution of fungi in soil and air. Specifically, we hypothesized that neighboring fungal communities should be more similar than distant communities (i.e. spatially autocorrelated) and that fungal dispersal should be more limited in soil than in air. We collected soil and air samples from 60 sites across five states in the Southwestern USA. Then, we sequenced the ITS2 region to identify fungal taxa in each sample. Next, we used distance-based redundancy analysis to partition variation in fungal community composition between climate variables and spatial structure. Fungi were indeed spatially autocorrelated. Moreover, precipitation, maximum vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture were significantly related to fungal community composition in soils. In comparison, only precipitation was significantly related to community composition in the air. After accounting for climate, the strength of spatial autocorrelation did not differ significantly in soilborne versus airborne fungi. Dispersal limitation was evident in soilborne fungi at short distances (<100 km) and was not observed at any distance in airborne fungi. Altogether, climate may influence which fungal taxa are present in soil and air, and fungi could feasibly wind disperse over regional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Polar Gateways Arctic Circle Sunrise 2008 Conference at the Top of the World

The Polar Gateways conference was hosted during January 23-29, 2008, the first week of polar sunrise at Barrow, Alaska, at the new Barrow Arctic Research Center of the Barrow Arctic Science consortium (BASC). The dawn week of polar day, the highly variable low temperatures, and the ice-covered shore tundra and adjacent sea ice conditions provided an appropriate locale for a conference dedicated in the spirit of the International Polar and Heliophysical Years 2007-2009 to the educational exploration of polar and icy world science of Earth and the solar system. The many scientific, educational, and cultural interactions with the local community of four thousand residents, sixty percent native Inupiat Eskimo, further provided an unforgettable experience of what life might be someday be like on other remote polar and icy worlds to be explored and eventually inhabited. Over one hundred active participants, more than half participating remotely, contributed science presentations and educational activities during this unique circumpolar and very "green" conference. Most remote contributions came via videoconference from the Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF) at Kisuna, Sweden, the EISCAT Svalbard Radar Facility at Spitzbergen, Norway, the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the University of California at Berkeley, and the University of Arizona. A few contributors participated via teleconference, including one from the Polar Geophysical Institute at Apatity in Russia. These active contributions spanned up to thirteen time zones (Alaska to Russia) at various tirnes during the conference. Primary videoconferencing support between Barrow and other sites was ably provided by the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, and local operators at each remote site collectively made this conference possible. Science presentations spanned the solar system from the polar Sun and heliospheric environment to Earth, Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, the Kuiper Belt, and the solar wind termination shock now crossed by both Voyager spacecraft. Barrow participants experienced look and feel of icy worlds like Europa by going "on the ice" during snowmobile expeditions to the near-shore sea ice and Point Barrow. Extensive educational outreach activities were conducted with the local Barrow township and North Slope Borough communities, partly through several interviews with local host Earl Finkler on Barrow's KBRW Radio, and through the NASA Digital Learning Network (DLN) "live from the top of the world" at Barrow. The Goddard robotic rover "Nunuq of the North" became a local celebrity. The complete science program and photo library, eventually also including video recordings of all main presentations, will be available at the new polargateways2008.gsfc.nasa.gov web site (old version: polargateways2008.org) with links to educational materials from the conference already accessible at sunearthday.nasa.gov/polarsunrise.

Cooper, John F.↗

CORE-CM in The Greater Green River and Wind River Basins: Transforming and Advancing a National Coal Asset (Final Report)

The following document summarizes project results from “CORE-CM in the Greater Green River and Wind River Basins: Transforming and Advancing a National Coal Asset”. This project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (“DOE”) National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (“NETL”) Carbon Ore, Rare Earth Elements, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) Initiative. This report concludes that the Greater Green River and Wind River Basins (GGRB-WRB) Area-of-Interest (AOI 9) is the ideal region for continued research and development in progressing the broader CORE-CM goals outlined by the DOE. Based upon the extensive analyses of technical, social, and community criteria, this report illustrates that the GGRB-WRB hosts numerous potential CORE-CM feedstocks (both coal- and non-coal based), diverse opportunities for utilizing existing industrial waste streams, ample infrastructure and industry to support new CORE-CM-focused technologies, and a highly motivated, well educated, and adaptable workforce to further develop the regional and national CORE-CM supply chain. Additionally, some potential solutions for technological gaps suggest that the GGRB-WRB's diverse resources can play a significant role in achieving the national goal of critical materials independence. With full community participation, meaningful involvement of regional Tribal Nations, and building upon the stakeholder engagement demonstrated here, the GGRB-WRB region presents a unique opportunity for advancing the CORE-CM Initiative. This project was designed to bring together coal-based communities and stakeholders from across the GGRB-WRB to advance new industries for CORE-CM resources. The University of Wyoming (UWyo) School of Energy Resources (SER) led a project team of experts from the Colorado Geological Survey (CGS), Colorado School of Mines (CSM), Los Alamos National Lab (LANL), and local community colleges. Input from basinal, regional, and national experts bolstered the coalition in order to advance the mission of DOE’s CORE-CM initiative and develop the domestic CORE-CM supply chain. Phase I of this project was designed to address the goal of developing and catalyzing economic growth, job creation, and technology innovation in the GGRB-WRB of Wyoming and Colorado, by increasing the supply of CORE-CM to manufacturers of non-fuel Carbon Based Products (CBP) and products reliant upon CM. The GGRB-WRB CORE-CM project worked toward providing benefit through several avenues of performance and research. • Develop a coalition team to achieve project objectives • Complete detailed assessments, including State-of-the-Art (SOTA) Data acquisition of potential CORE-CM materials across the AOI, and meaningfully contributes to DOE’s CORE-CM goals nationally. • Strategic planning for regional economic growth, job creation, and associated technology innovation around coal materials, including plans to maximize the development of potential CORE-CM resources and technology by creating regional public-private partnerships. • Define regional economic growth potential around existing strengths, energy infrastructure, business and industry, including planning for the leveraging of highly trained workforces, existing and novel coal technologies, and energy infrastructure in development of CORE-CM supply chains. • Develop a preliminary strategic plan for increasing the supply of CORE-CM materials to manufacturers of non-fuel Carbon Based Products (CBP) and products reliant upon CM, focusing on regional strengths that result in an emerging diversified CORE-CM economy. • Assemble a committed network of stakeholders and communities that learn about, accept, and grow new energy technologies within coal regions. Additionally, the project team significantly contributed to the CORE-CM Initiative’s national goals, through cross-regional scoping, collaborating with CORE-CM projects in other AOIs, and including parallel regional project experts. In addition to active inclusion and meaningful engagement and contribution to DOE-led working groups, the project team focused on engaging with regional communities including Tribal Nations, economic development groups, and regional government organizations. The project’s CORE-CM development and commercialization plan identified diverse CORECM feedstocks, potential routes towards integration with existing industries, methods for supply-chain development that leverage existing infrastructure and businesses considering the regional economy, identified entry barriers for incorporating traditional and new technologies in those supply chains, recognized opportunities for public-private partnerships to develop technology innovation centers, identified diverse workforces, and conducted stakeholder outreach and education to build a community of understanding on CORE-CM potential in the GGRB-WRB region. Detailed task descriptions can be found in each chapter.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Lewis Structures Technology, 1988. Volume 1: Structural Dynamics

The specific purpose of the symposium was to familiarize the engineering structures community with the depth and range of research performed by the Structures Division of the Lewis Research Center and its academic and industrial partners. Sessions covered vibration control, fracture mechanics, ceramic component reliability, parallel computing, nondestructive testing, dynamical systems, fatigue and damage, wind turbines, hot section technology, structural mechanics codes, computational methods for dynamics, structural optimization, and applications of structural dynamics.

Source record↗

Flight, Wind-Tunnel, and Computational Fluid Dynamics Comparison for Cranked Arrow Wing (F-16XL-1) at Subsonic and Transonic Speeds

The data contained on this CD are a supplement to NASA/TP-2001-210629 published in February 2001. This CD replaces a web-site database search and retrieval system - noted as reference 36 in the NASA/TP - that was to supply the aeronautical community with access to the flight data. Unfortunately, this web-site was only available for a short time after the publication of NASA/TP-2001-21068 due to software and support issues. The contents of this CD are organized into five folders containing data from the flight test and reference 1. In particular, the following are provided: (1) tabular data of the Flight Conditions from Table 5; (2) boundary layer data from Table 12 for three flights in multiple formats; (3) skin-friction data - xmgr format (ref. 3) - used to generate Figure 26; (4) surface pressure data with a listing of the parameters; and (5) tuft-images from three cameras in two formats.

John E Lamar↗

Response of Subsurface Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities to Environmental Fluctuations (Final Technical Report)

Riparian floodplains are dynamic ecosystems linking terrestrial and riverine systems. These floodplains experience hydrological shifts such as changes in water table height, flooding, and drought and can be ‘hotspots’ of biogeochemical cycling due to shifting sediment moisture (and saturation) and subsurface exchanges of water, nutrients, and other compounds across different sediment layers. Subsurface microbial communities are the primary drivers of biogeochemical processes in floodplains, and thus their structure and function can directly influence both surface and groundwater quality. The microbial nitrogen (N) cycle is particularly important in floodplains as it affects nutrient availability and removal. Two functional guilds of chemoautotrophic (i.e. CO2-fixing) microorganisms are responsible for the first oxidative step of the N cycle, nitrification: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) catalyze the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite, while nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize nitrite to nitrate. Despite the critical role nitrification plays in N-cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, our understanding of the diversity, ecophysiology, and activity of nitrifying organisms in subsurface floodplain soils/sediments is extremely limited. To help address this critical knowledge gap, the overarching goal of this project was to determine how shifts in key environmental parameters and gradients impact microbial N-cycling communities/processes, with particular emphasis on nitrification, within hydrologically-variable floodplain sediments in the Wind River Basin near Riverton, Wyoming. The three specific objectives of this project were to: (1) to associate in situ environmental drivers of N cycling with distinct functional guilds; (2) determine the guild response to variation in key ecosystem drivers; and (3) develop a dynamic ecosystem model of the microbial N cycle with the Riverton subsurface using community genomic and biogeochemical data collected in the first two objectives. Over the course of this project, we employed both 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and genome-resolved metagenomics to examine the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic potential of subsurface nitrifier communities within 68 samples collected across multiple sites, depths, and time points within the Riverton floodplain, allowing for both spatial and temporal investigations at different scales. This project benefitted tremendously from recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with dramatic improvements in the computational tools and algorithms available for analyzing such large, complex genomic datasets. By pairing these cutting-edge genomic approaches with depth-resolved sampling and detailed geochemical analyses of the Riverton floodplain, we have gained novel insights into the structure and function of subsurface nitrifier communities in relation to both hydrology and biogeochemistry. This project resulted in the most detailed and comprehensive characterization of N-cycling floodplain microbial communities to date and will hopefully inspire and pave the way for future studies using similar approaches in other floodplains. Indeed, such information is critical for understanding subsurface biogeochemical cycling and how elemental stores are altered from perturbations initiated by the water cycle within floodplains. Finally, because of the terrestrial-aquatic nature of the Riverton floodplain, results from this project are also of relevance to disciplines such as soil science, estuarine science, limnology & oceanography, biogeochemistry, geobiology, environmental engineering, as well as genomics and data science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SOHO Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS) Mission Operations and Data Analysis

The scientific goal of UVCS is to obtain detailed empirical descriptions of the extended solar corona as it evolves over the solar cycle and to use these descriptions to identify and understand the physical processes responsible for coronal heating, solar wind acceleration, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and the phenomena that establish the plasma properties of the solar wind as measured by "in situ" solar wind instruments. This report covers the period from 15 November 1998 to 14 March 2001. During that time, UVCS observations have consisted of three types: 1) standard synoptic observations comprising, primarily, the H I Lycc line profile and the O VI 103.2 and 103.7 nm intensity over a range of heights from 1.5 to about 3.0 solar radii and covering 360 degrees about the sun, 2) sit and stare watches for CMEs, and 3) special observations designed by the UVCS Lead Observer of the Week for a specific scientific purpose. The special observations are often coordinated with those of other space-based and ground based instruments and they often are part of SOHO joint observation programs and campaigns. Lead observers have included UVCS Co-Investigators, Guest Investigators, scientists from the solar physics community and several graduate and undergraduate level students. UVCS has continued to successfully meet its goal of using powerful spectroscopic diagnostic techniques to obtain a much more detailed description of coronal structures than existed before the SOHO mission. The new descriptions of coronal structures from UVCS have inspired a large number of theoretical studies aimed at identifying the physical processes responsible for solar wind acceleration in coronal holes and streamers. UVCS has proven to be a very stable instrument. Stellar observations have demonstrated its stability and the analysis of coordinated observations with Spartan 201 have verified the accuracy of the absolute calibration and spectral resolution at H I Ly (alpha) line profile. UVCS has required no flight software modifications and all mechanisms are operational. The UVCS O VI Channel with its redundant optical path for wavelengths near H I Ly (alpha) is capable of observing the entire UVCS wavelength range. Since December 1998, the O VI Channel has been used for all UVCS observations. Although the H I Ly (alpha) Channel and detector are still operational, increases in the dark count up to about 5x 10(exp-4) counts/sec/pixel and an increase in high voltage current to within a factor of two of the maximum used in the laboratory before flight led to the decision to not use that detector at the present time. There is no significant science impact since the O VI Channel can observe nearly the same wavelength range.

Kohl, John L.↗

Lewis Structures Technology, 1988. Volume 2: Structural Mechanics

Lewis Structures Div. performs and disseminates results of research conducted in support of aerospace engine structures. These results have a wide range of applicability to practitioners of structural engineering mechanics beyond the aerospace arena. The engineering community was familiarized with the depth and range of research performed by the division and its academic and industrial partners. Sessions covered vibration control, fracture mechanics, ceramic component reliability, parallel computing, nondestructive evaluation, constitutive models and experimental capabilities, dynamic systems, fatigue and damage, wind turbines, hot section technology (HOST), aeroelasticity, structural mechanics codes, computational methods for dynamics, structural optimization, and applications of structural dynamics, and structural mechanics computer codes.

Source record↗

Experimental Sonic Boom Measurements on a Mach 1.6 Cruise Low-Boom Configuration

A wind tunnel test has been conducted by Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (GAC) to measure the sonic boom pressure signature of a low boom Mach 1.6 cruise business jet in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at Mach numbers 1.60 and 1.80. Through a cooperative agreement between GAC and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), GAC provided NASA access to some of the experimental data and NASA is publishing these data for the sonic boom research community. On-track and off-track near field sonic boom pressure signatures were acquired at three separation distances (0.5, 1.2, and 1.7 reference body lengths) and three angles of attack (-0.26deg, 0.26deg, and 0.68deg). The model was blade mounted to minimize the sting effects on the sonic boom signatures. Although no extensive data analysis is provided, selected data are plotted to illustrate salient features of the data. All of the experimental sonic boom pressure data are tabulated. Schlieren images of the configuration are also included.

Wilcox, Floyd J., Jr.↗

Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Abstract Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Reilly, Matthew J.↗

ComEd Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook, Phase 1: Temperature, Heat Index, and Average Wind

This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook report presents the research and findings of a joint venture between Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) to evaluate future climate risks to ComEd’s infrastructure and operations. ComEd recognizes that its position as the state of Illinois’ largest electric utility, serving roughly 70% of the state’s population, underscores the importance for communities across Illinois to consider climate risk as they plan for future conditions. Climate impacts, such as more severe heatwaves or more frequent flood events, can disrupt the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and create public health challenges. Taking a proactive approach to adapt to climate risks will help ensure that ComEd continues to serve its growing customer-base reliably and efficiently. This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook serves as an important first step to inform ComEd’s grid planning efforts, but Argonne and ComEd recognize that additional research beyond this report will be necessary to characterize future climate conditions more comprehensively throughout northern Illinois, to assess their impacts to grid assets and system operations, and to index effective adaptation options at an asset-level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The influence of variability in meridional over turning on global ocean circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important global scale circulation and changes in AMOC can induce significant regional and global climate impacts. In this work, we study the stability of AMOC and its influence on global ocean circulation and the surface climate though analyzing a set of sensitivity experiments using the Community Climate System Model version 1 (CESM1). Results show that a collapsed AMOC can induce changes in global ocean circulation, such as reduced (or reversed) Bering Strait transport, weakened Indonesia throughflow and Agulhas current, but strengthened Drake Passage transport. It also changes the global wind pattern and surface temperature, such as a seesaw-like surface temperature change between Northern and Southern Hemispheres, a weakening of Indian-Australia summer monsoon, a southward shift of the Southern ocean westerlies, etc. We also found that AMOC and the Pacific deep meridional overturning circulation (or PMOC) do not form a natural seesaw under modern day climate and geography. A collapsed AMOC (active PMOC) is not stable under modern conditions if there is no additional freshwater (salt) input in the subpolar North Atlantic (Pacific), suggesting that the modern mean state of AMOC (PMOC) does not depend on local haline forcing although its variability and changes do.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellites as Sentinels for Climate and Health

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as vector- borne and infectious diseases, air and water quality,. harmful algal blooms, W radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. Remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIs), global positioning systems (GPS), improved computation capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities, together with local knowledge, are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global climate and health issues. These collaborative efforts are enabling increased understanding of the relationships among changes in temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, vegetation, and the patterns of extreme weather events and health issues. This increased understanding and improved information and data sharing, in turn, empowers local health and environmental decision-makers to better predict climate-related health problems, decrease vulnerability, take preventive measures, and improve response actions. This paper provides a number of recent examples of how satellites - from their unique vantage point in space - can serve as sentinels for climate and health.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

The Earth's Exosphere and Its Response to Space Weather

Neutral-Plasma charge exchange is a fundamental physical process that occurs ubiquitously across the universe. In geospace, charge exchange occurs in the Earth’s topside ionosphere, polar wind, plasmasphere, inner magnetosphere, and magnetosheath. Past and current space missions have profiled plasma and electromagnetic characteristics in various parts of the Earth’s magnetospheric system. However, observations of the exosphere, i.e., neutrals above 500 km altitude, are still sparse and, in some regions, non-existent, which limits our understanding of the neutral contribution to the overall dynamics of the geospace environment. Cold exospheric neutrals (< 10 eV) play an important role in the Sun-Earth interaction. Variability of exospheric density provides key information of the Earth’s atmospheric loss under dynamic space environment conditions. Various neutral species and their density variations in the polar wind can alter ion outflow patterns, modifying global magnetospheric dynamics. Exospheric neutrals also provide an energy sink for the inner magnetosphere by creating Energetic Neutral Atoms (ENAs) through charge exchange with high-energy ring current ions, which subsequently leave our geospace system unimpeded by magnetic fields. Exospheric neutrals also provide a means to observe the global interaction of the solar wind – magnetosphere, through global imaging of the system via ENAs (e.g., the TWINS and IMAGE missions) and soft X-rays (e.g., the upcoming LEXI and SMILE missions), the byproducts of neutral-plasma charge exchange. In the coming decade, we advocate that our community needs to increase our exploration of the neutral populations in the outermost reaches of the Earth’s atmosphere. It is imperative that we improve both in-situ and remote-sensing technologies for measuring key neutral species in our exosphere. We also encourage dedicated exosphere missions and to stimulate model developments of our exosphere and its interaction with the co-located magnetospheric system and neighboring Ionosphere - Thermosphere - Mesosphere system.

Hyunju Connor↗