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At least 451 records · Page 25

How the Availability and Cost of Water Could Influence the Future Buildout of the Electric Grid in the U.S.

The power sector is the largest water withdrawer in the U.S., and water availability can drive both its investment and operating decisions. Given a range of uncertain trends in the power sector, it's important to consider how water demands might evolve from both generation and load change and how the cost and availability of water might impact water source decisions. Doing so requires a detailed consideration of technology-specific water needs, water availability characterization, and scenario exploration. This presentation describes capabilities to do so in unprecedented detail and some preliminary findings about how water constraints could influence power sector expansion.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Wafer-scale waveguide sidewall roughness scattering loss characterization by image processing

Photonic integrated circuits (PICs) are vital for developing affordable, high-performance optoelectronic devices that can be manufactured at an industrial scale, driving innovation and efficiency in various applications. Optical loss of modes in thin film waveguides and devices is a critical measure of their performance. Thin film growth, lithography, masking, and etching processes are imperfect processes that introduce significant sidewall and top-surface roughness and cause dominating optical losses in waveguides and photonic structures. This roughness, as perturbations couple light from guided to far-field radiation modes, leads to scattering losses that can be estimated from theoretical models. Typically, with UV-based lithography, sidewall roughness is significantly larger than wafer-top surface roughness. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) imaging measurement gives a 3D and high-resolution roughness profile, but the measurement is inconvenient, costly, and unscalable for large-scale PICs and at wafer-scale. Here, we evaluate the sidewall roughness profile based on 2D high-resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM) imaging. We characterized the loss on two homemade nitride and oxide films on 3-inch silicon wafers with 12 waveguide devices on each and correlated the scattering loss estimated from a 2D image-based sidewall profile and theoretical Payne model. The lowest loss of guided fundamental transverse electric (TE 0 ) mode is found at 0.075 dB/cm at 633 nm across 24 devices, a record at visible wavelength. Our work shows 100% success (edge continuity span exceeding 95% of image width/height) in edge detection in image processing of all images to estimate autocorrelation function and optical mode loss. These demonstrations offer valuable insights into waveguide sidewall roughness and a comparison of experimental and 2D SEM image processing based loss estimations with applications in loss characterization at wafer-scale PICs.

Khurana, Mohit (ORCID:0000000207898672)↗

Revolutionizing Waste Management: AI-Powered Real-Time Characterization for Efficient Handling of Non-Recyclable Municipal Solid Waste

According to EPA, -300 MM tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) was available in the US as of 2018. Of that total material, nearly 50% was landfilled resulting in a significant loss for the potential to convert its energy value into cost effective and sustainable biofuels. Redirecting this material away from the landfill and into conversion ready feedstock for energy generation can directly address DOE's selling price < $2.50/GGE while securing the US national energy independence [1]. However, the paramount challenges in any rational fuel conversion strategy are understanding the chemical makeup, quality and associated calorific value of the MSW. Understanding these parameters is critical in achieving any acceptable fuel conversion and requires rapid characterization followed by accurate separation technologies. Therefore, we are proposing to address the rapid characterization by building a non-invasive, rapid, and highly accurate Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled spectrometric/optical approach augmented with multi-sensory information for advanced characterization of domestic heterogeneous MSW. North Carolina State University (NCSU) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in partnership with strong support from the Town of Cary and IBM, Inc., will closely work together to implement this ground-breaking technology for the effective characterization of MSW for sustainable and affordable production of conversion-ready feedstocks, while solving the environment issue of planetary proportions.

artificial intelligence↗

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Production of Carbon Nanomaterials and Sorbents from Domestic U.S. Coal (Final Report)

The main goal of this project was to produce high-value carbon nanomaterials and carbon sorbents from domestic coal resources in a cost-effective manner. Four types of domestic coal samples were processed through a combination of deashing, devolatilization, oxidation, reduction, and activation treatments to produce graphene oxide (GO), reduced graphene oxide (RGO), and activated carbon (AC). The precursors and developed materials were extensively characterized by various methods to investigate the impact of the coal feedstock type on the yield and quality of each product. A commercial graphite-based GO sample was included in the experimental work as the baseline material for comparison with the coal-based materials developed in this work. The performed work also included a technoeconomic analysis and cost estimation for a plant processing 20 tons/day coal, a market evaluation for the graphene materials, and a technology gap analysis. A simple process by concentrated nitric acid oxidation is used to oxidize coal precursors for the production of GO. Fine oxidized coal particles that were separated from larger oxidized coal particles had significantly higher oxygen contents and were identified as coal-based GO samples. Coarse oxidized coal particles were used as precursors for production of AC. Based on the Raman spectroscopy results, coal-based GO samples exhibited G and D bands similar to those of graphite-based GO samples. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy revealed that coal-based GO samples had surface oxygen contents of ~26-35% that were higher than the oxygen contents of graphite-based GO samples. Larger particles of oxidized coal samples were activated under different conditions to produce high surface area functionalized AC. Prepared materials had surface areas exceeding 1,500 m 2 /g and pore volumes more than 1 cm 3 /g with different pore size distributions. Reduced graphene oxide samples were prepared by thermal reduction of both coal-based and graphite-based GO samples at 170-2800 ºC. Coal-based and graphite-based RGO samples exhibited similar carbon contents, Raman spectra, and XRD profiles. Heat treatment above 1500 ºC shifted RGO to synthetic graphite. Among anthracite, bituminous, subbituminous, and lignite coals tested, anthracite was the best precursor to produce carbon nanomaterials exhibiting properties similar to those of graphite-based materials. Anthracite-based carbon nanomaterials also had the highest production yields. Technoeconomic analysis estimated the production cost of GO and RGO for anthracite-based samples at about 2,600 and 4,200 $/ton, respectively, which is about two orders of magnitude lower than the current estimated price of graphite-based materials. Several gaps to further develop the proposed technology were identified and discussed that include process and equipment optimization, process integration, need for additional bench- and pilot-scale experiments, and other items to reduce the scale up risk. Market analysis reports suggested a compound annual growth rate of 40% for graphene and related materials. Short-term applications include composites, inks, and coatings. However, energy storage applications appear to be the dominant potential long-term applications. Different applications of coal-based GO and RGO need to be explored and clear metrics and standards for each application need to be developed.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Development of a forced advection sampling technique (FAST) for quantification of methane emissions from orphaned wells

Abstract. Orphaned wells, meaning unplugged and non-producing wells lacking responsible owners, pose a significant and undersampled environmental challenge due to their vast number and unknown associated emissions. We propose, develop and test an alternative method for estimating emissions from orphaned wells using a forced advection sampling technique (FAST) that can overcome many of the limitations in current methods (cost, accuracy, safety). In contrast to existing ambient Gaussian plume methods, our approach uses a fan-generated flow to force advection between the emission source and a point methane (CH4) sensor. The fan flow field is characterized using a colocated sonic anemometer to measure the 3D wind profile generated by the fan. Using time-series measurements of CH4 concentration and wind, a simple estimate of the CH4 emission rate of the source can be inferred. The method was calibrated using outdoor controlled-release experiments and then tested on four orphaned wells in Lufkin, TX, and Osage County, OK. Our results suggest that the FAST method can provide a low-cost, portable, fast and safe alternative to existing methods with reasonable estimates of orphaned well emissions over a range of leak rates below 40 g h−1 and within certain geometric and atmospheric constraints.

Dubey, Mohit L↗

The Development of Catalysts for Upgrading of Pyrolysis Vapor for Refinery Feedstocks and Intermediates (CRADA Final Report)

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a versatile technology platform to convert biomass into fungible hydrocarbon transportation fuels and chemical co-products. Key technical barriers to reaching this goal include increasing the product yields and achieving the desired fuel properties for gasoline, diesel, and jet range fuels or blendstocks that would be suitable for introduction into existing refinery unit operations. Overcoming these barriers will require durable catalysts that are effective at upgrading and stabilizing biomass pyrolysis vapors. Towards these goals, this CRADA leveraged NREL experience as a leader in biomass pyrolysis research and Johnson Matthey's (JM) experience as a leader in the production of advanced catalytic materials. The scope spanned CFP catalyst development, characterization, multi-scale reaction testing, and computational modeling. CRADA benefits to DOE, Participant, and U.S. Taxpayer: Assists laboratory in achieving programmatic scope, Uses the laboratory’s core competencies. The purpose of this CRADA was to develop and deploy catalysts for biomass CFP to help achieve cost-competitive biofuels and bio-based products. This was accomplished through a close collaboration between biomass conversion researchers at NREL and catalyst development researchers at JM. Summary of Research Results: Focus Area 1. Foundational research on catalytic conversion and deactivation: Key interactions between pyrolysis vapors and heterogeneous catalysts were probed through catalyst characterization, model compound reaction testing, and atomistic-scale computational modeling. Catalyst development focused on multifunctional materials, which include zeolites, oxides, carbides, and nitrides. Computational modeling identified reaction mechanisms and elucidated surface chemistry to test hypotheses regarding mechanisms of deoxygenation, coupling, cracking, dehydration, coke formation, hydrogen transfer, and aromatic ring reactions. This information was used to design multifunctional catalysts to increase product yields, control product selectivity, and reduce deactivation during CFP and downstream processing steps. The results served to increase fundamental understanding of key catalyst attributes and durability features for the upgrading of biomass pyrolysis vapors. Model compound experiments confirmed the importance of metal-acid bifunctionality for the deoxygenation of lignin-derived phenolic species under hydrodeoxygenation conditions. This insight led to the development of catalysts such as Pt/TiO2 and Mo2C, which were confirmed as high-performing materials during subsequent bench-scale experiments using biomass-derived pyrolysis vapors. This focus area also led to the identification of important catalyst deactivation mechanisms associated with the deposition of inorganic contaminants such as potassium. The molecular-level insight from model compound experiments and computational modeling, shown in Figure 1, informed the development of regeneration procedures that have been shown to be effective for restoration of > 90% of initial catalyst activity. This understanding has subsequently been translated to other catalyst systems, including zeolite materials that can be operated without requirements for co-fed hydrogen.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Consequences and benefits of utilizing continuous vibro-impact representations in constrained pipeline conveying fluid systems

Here, the effectiveness of continuous vibro-impact forcing representations for the cantilevered pipe that conveys fluid is explored and analyzed. The previously accepted forcing model utilizing a smoothened trilinear spring is estimated using three continuous forcing representations, namely, polynomial, rational polynomial, and hyperbolic tangent. The accuracy of the estimated forcing functions is investigated and analyzed by calculating the root mean square error, and bifurcation diagrams are generated and compared to the nominal system. Additionally, the dynamic response of the system is further characterized using Poincare maps, power spectra, and basins of attraction. Once all continuous forcing representations are analyzed and compared to the nominal system, the computational cost of each method is examined, and further limitations of the hyperbolic tangent method are discovered. It is proved that the hyperbolic tangent forcing representation most accurately captures the dynamic response of the pipeline, and the least accurate representation is the rational polynomial representation. Additionally, considerable computational cost is saved when employing the hyperbolic tangent representation compared to the discontinuous representation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

Variational control forces for enhanced sampling of nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations

We introduce a variational algorithm to estimate the likelihood of a rare event within a nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation through the evaluation of an optimal control force. Optimization of a control force within a chosen basis is made possible by explicit forms for the gradients of a cost function in terms of the susceptibility of driven trajectories to changes in variational parameters. We consider probabilities of time-integrated dynamical observables as characterized by their large deviation functions and find that in many cases, the variational estimate is quantitatively accurate. Additionally, we provide expressions to exactly correct the variational estimate that can be evaluated directly. We benchmark this algorithm against the numerically exact solution of a model of a driven particle in a periodic potential, where the control force can be represented with a complete basis. Additionally, we then demonstrate the utility of the algorithm in a model of repulsive particles on a line, which undergo a dynamical phase transition, resulting in singular changes to the form of the optimal control force. In both systems, we find fast convergence and are able to evaluate large deviation functions with significant increases in statistical efficiency over alternative Monte Carlo approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nebulized delivery of a broadly neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific nanobody prevents clinical, virological, and pathological disease in a Syrian hamster model of COVID-19

There remains an unmet need for globally deployable, low-cost therapeutics for the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Previously, we reported on the isolation and in vitro characterization of a potent single-domain nanobody, NIH-CoVnb-112, specific for the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we report on the molecular basis for the observed broad in vitro neutralization capability of NIH-CoVnb-112 against variant SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses. The structure of NIH-CoVnb-112 bound to SARS-CoV-2 RBD reveals a large contact surface area overlapping the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) binding site, which is largely unencumbered by the common RBD mutations. In an in vivo pilot study, we demonstrate effective reductions in weight loss, viral burden, and lung pathology in a Syrian hamster model of COVID-19 following nebulized delivery of NIH-CoVnb-112. These findings support the further development of NIH-CoVnb-112 as a potential adjunct preventative therapeutic for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Structure analysis of supported disordered molybdenum oxides using pair distribution function analysis and automated cluster modelling

Molybdenum oxides and sulfides on various low-cost high-surface-area supports are excellent catalysts for several industrially relevant reactions. The surface layer structure of these materials is, however, difficult to characterize due to small and disordered MoO x domains. Here, it is shown how X-ray total scattering can be applied to gain insights into the structure through differential pair distribution function (d-PDF) analysis, where the scattering signal from the support material is subtracted to obtain structural information on the supported structure. MoO x catalysts supported on alumina nanoparticles and on zeolites are investigated, and it is shown that the structure of the hydrated molybdenum oxide layer is closely related to that of disordered and polydisperse polyoxometalates. By analysing the PDFs with a large number of automatically generated cluster structures, which are constructed in an iterative manner from known polyoxometalate clusters, information is derived on the structural motifs in supported MoO x .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

GEESS as a Mechanism to Facilitate the Commercialization of Geologic Carbon Sequestration

This is a presentation featuring an overview of the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) project and latest results. The GEESS project has worked towards characterizing 57 geologic saline formations targeted for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) using publicly available datasets. The GEESS system consists of high spatial resolution datasets (up to a 5 km grid spacing) that characterize critical geologic parameters such as depth, thickness, porosity, permeability, fracture pressure, and more. Further, GEESS geologic data were exercised using the FECM/NETL Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM) to estimate CO2 plume sizes and the first-year break-even price of CO2 at the grid point level. GEESS is now available on NETL’s Energy Data Exchange (EDX).

Eppink, Jeffrey↗

A Novel 'Smart Microchip Proppants' Technology for Precision Diagnostics of Hydraulic Fracture Networks (Edited Final Report)

This project introduces innovative technology to improve subsurface characterization, visualization, and diagnostics of unconventional reservoirs (fossil resources). Through a collaborative effort involving the University of Kansas, UCLA, MicroSilicon Inc., and EOG Resources, the project aims to deliver precision diagnostics for hydraulic fractures using novel high-resolution imaging technology based on smart microchip proppants. Additionally, it seeks to enhance the accuracy and predictability of integrated numerical, and machine-learning modeling techniques for hydraulic fracture characterization and simulation. This groundbreaking technology addresses significant gaps in understanding unconventional and tight reservoir behavior and optimizing well-completion strategies, enabling more cost-efficient recovery of unconventional resources.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Evaluation of Lost Circulation Material Sealing for Geothermal Drilling

Lost circulation is a pervasive problem in geothermal wells that can create prohibitive costs during drilling. The main issue with treatment is that the mechanism of plug formation is poorly understood. Here we applied two experimental approaches to characterize the clogging effectiveness of different materials. Fracture flow tests with different geometries were conducted with various individual materials and mixtures at relevant conditions. A high-temperature flow loop system was also developed to inject single- and mixed-material plugs into a gravel pack with a non-uniform geometry to compare with the fracture tests. The fracture tests revealed that single materials tended to form no plug or an unstable plug, while mixtures of materials were uniformly better at sealing fractures. Gravel pack tests at high temperatures show most of the materials are intact but degraded. The fibrous materials can create partial or unstable plugs in the gravel pack, but mixed-material plugs are far more effective at clogging. Both test types suggest that (1) mixed materials are more effective at blocking fluid flow and (2) fibrous materials seal fracture openings better, while granular materials seal inside fractures or pore throats better. Further research is needed to study the long-term stability of different plug configurations.

clogging tests↗

Particle Vertical Mixing and Horizontal Conveyance Within an Ambient Temperature Fluidized Bed

Previous studies have shown the advantages of particle-to-sCO2 fluidized bed (FB) heat exchangers, which include high heat transfer coefficients, low material cost, and the ability to horizontally convey solid particles. This paper outlines the design and testing of a compact cold flow FB test apparatus to characterize horizontal conveyance through convolutions within a 100 kWth FB heat exchanger design. Horizontal conveyance is an advantage in FBs because it enables more compact designs for heat exchangers. Two mass flow rates, 0.5 & 1 kg/s, at the inlet & outlet of the FB. To determine consistency of the flow rates, Student’s t-tests were used to assess whether the inlet & outlet values were statistically similar. The mass flow rate exiting the bed was statistically similar to the flow rate entering the bed for both cases, but each case featured a wider range and standard deviation. The range and standard deviation of the 1 kg/s flow rate was 0.69-1.23 kg/s and 0.12 kg/s respectively, and the 0.5 kg/s test featured a range and standard deviation of 0.37-0.73 kg/s and 0.09 kg/s, respectively. These measurements provide confidence that large-scale designs can successfully horizontally convey particles at ````~1.5x minimum fluidization velocity (U­mf) without significant variation in flow rate. A method to characterize the degree of particle vertical mixing and bubble frequency within the FB is also introduced. By using a high-resolution camera together with particle velocimetry, particle motion in the X and Y directions can be estimated to assess bed mixing and bubble frequency.

Khalaf, Jawad↗

Building a framework to genetically characterize “feather spots” and understand demographic impacts of solar energy sites on migratory bird populations

The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗