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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests

Abstract The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south‐eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process‐based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (−12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (−18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was −6.6% across 48‐years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Brown, Tegan P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Complex surface topographic changes from explosive experiments at the Dry Alluvium Geology site, southern Nevada, United States

Understanding the surface topographic change that results from underground explosions is important for global security. Current techniques to relate the surface change to underground explosion characteristics usually involve assuming the earth has homogenous properties, leading to highly variable interpretations. Here we use an unoccupied aerial platform and a digital single lens reflex camera along with 200+ ground control points surveyed with a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system to measure the surface topographic change resulting from two underground explosions at the Dry Alluvium Geology site in Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site, southern Nevada, United States. We find areas of 5–7 cm of subsidence that are not directly above the explosion source but rather 200–300 m away. For experiment DAG2, this zone is located south and west of the explosion, while for DAG4, there is a zone of subsidence located northeast of the explosion. In addition, late-time measurements show as much as 5 cm of horizontal change without measurable associated vertical change in the weeks following DAG4 but not DAG2. These indicate that the deformation resulting from underground chemical explosions can be very complex and bear little to no resemblance to predictions using half-space models. It is likely the tectonic environment plays a significant role in controlling the surface change, but the details are not fully understood.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lipoprotein subfraction patterns throughout gestation in The Gambia: changes in subfraction composition and their relationships with infant birth weights

Lipoprotein subfraction concentrations have been shown to change as gestation progresses in resource-rich settings. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the impact of pregnancy on different-sized lipoprotein particle concentrations and compositions in a resource-poor setting. Samples were collected from pregnant women in rural Gambia at enrollment (8–20 weeks), 20 weeks, and 30 weeks of gestation. Concentrations of different-sized high-density, low-density, and triglyceride-rich lipoprotein particles (HDL, LDL, and TRL, respectively) were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance in 126 pooled plasma samples from a subset of women. HDL was isolated and the HDL proteome evaluated using mass spectroscopy. Subfraction concentrations from women in The Gambia were also compared to concentrations in women in the U.S. in mid gestation. Total lipoprotein particles and all-sized TRL, LDL, and HDL particle concentrations increased during gestation, with the exception of medium-sized LDL and HDL particles which decreased. Subfraction concentrations were not associated with infant birth weights, though relationships were found between some lipoprotein subfraction concentrations in women with normal versus low birth weight infants (< 2500 kg). HDL’s proteome also changed during gestation, showing enrichment in proteins associated with metal ion binding, hemostasis, lipid metabolism, protease inhibitors, proteolysis, and complement activation. Compared to women in the U.S., Gambian women had lower large- and small-sized LDL and HDL concentrations, but similar medium-sized LDL and HDL concentrations. Most lipoprotein subfraction concentrations increase throughout pregnancy in Gambian women and are lower in Gambian vs U.S. women, the exception being medium-sized LDL and HDL particle concentrations which decrease during gestation and are similar in both cohorts of women. The proteomes of HDL also change in ways to support gestation. These changes warrant further study to determine how a lack of change or different changes could impact negative pregnancy outcomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane-cycling microbial communities from Amazon floodplains and upland forests respond differently to simulated climate change scenarios

Seasonal floodplains in the Amazon basin are important sources of methane (CH 4 ), while upland forests are known for their sink capacity. Climate change effects, including shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, may alter the functionality of soil microbial communities, leading to uncertain changes in CH 4 cycling dynamics. To investigate the microbial feedback under climate change scenarios, we performed a microcosm experiment using soils from two floodplains (i.e., Amazonas and Tapajós rivers) and one upland forest. We employed a two-factorial experimental design comprising flooding (with non-flooded control) and temperature (at 27 °C and 30 °C, representing a 3 °C increase) as variables. We assessed prokaryotic community dynamics over 30 days using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and qPCR. These data were integrated with chemical properties, CH 4 fluxes, and isotopic values and signatures. In the floodplains, temperature changes did not significantly affect the overall microbial composition and CH 4 fluxes. CH 4 emissions and uptake in response to flooding and non-flooding conditions, respectively, were observed in the floodplain soils. By contrast, in the upland forest, the higher temperature caused a sink-to-source shift under flooding conditions and reduced CH 4 sink capability under dry conditions. The upland soil microbial communities also changed in response to increased temperature, with a higher percentage of specialist microbes observed. Floodplains showed higher total and relative abundances of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbes compared to forest soils. Isotopic data from some flooded samples from the Amazonas river floodplain indicated CH 4 oxidation metabolism. This floodplain also showed a high relative abundance of aerobic and anaerobic CH 4 oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea. Taken together, our data indicate that CH 4 cycle dynamics and microbial communities in Amazonian floodplain and upland forest soils may respond differently to climate change effects. We also highlight the potential role of CH 4 oxidation pathways in mitigating CH 4 emissions in Amazonian floodplains.

16S rRNA sequencing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biogeochemical Changes in Estuaries

The biogeochemical composition of materials suspended and dissolved in estuarine waters is substantially transformed by biological and abiotic processes as water from rivers and subterranean aquifers travels through estuaries to the coastal ocean, influencing the rate of storage and/or exchange of carbon with the atmosphere. Biogeochemical signatures in the upper reaches of estuaries (e.g., low salinity) generally reflect characteristics of the rivers and groundwater draining into the estuary. The composition of organic matter (OM) where rivers meet estuaries is a mixture of terrigenous signatures dependent on watershed landscape features, aquatic signatures dependent on the prominence of freshwater primary productivity, and intermediate metabolites (i.e., byproducts of in situ transformation) of these terrigenous and aquatic OM sources. The prominence of aquatic primary production-derived OM and products of microbial decomposition generally increases towards the lower reaches of estuaries where they meet the coastal ocean (i.e.., continental shelf). The nature of biogeochemical transformations occurring along estuarine gradients is closely coupled with factors that are poised to change under multiple compounding disturbances and stress factors related to both climate change and other anthropogenic global changes. This chapter describes the fundamental mechanisms that drive the transport, transformation, and storage of OM in estuaries and how these dynamics have and may continue to change in response to key disturbances and stressors related to climate change and other anthropogenic global changes including warming, intensifying hydrological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods), sea level rise, and acidification.

Ward, Nicholas D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data and code for: "Soil respiration response to simulated precipitation change depends on ecosystem type and study duration"

Data, code, and figures from our meta-analysis of the effect of precipitation change on soil respiration, with an emphasis on ecosystem variability and the effect of study duration. We combined the results of 81 separate studies to determine the effect of altered rainfall on the amount of carbon that leaves soil in the form of carbon dioxide, a major component of global carbon cycling. In addition we looked at how long the changes lasted, and how different soil properties and the intensity of precipitation changes affected the study results. We found that more precipitation resulted in greater amounts of carbon dioxide leaving the soil, and less precipitation resulted in less. However, the changes weakened over time in ecosystems that typically receive plenty of rainfall (e.g., forests), in contrast to ecosystems that typically receive little rainfall (e.g., deserts) where changes strengthened over time. Changes in the amount of carbon dioxide that left the soil were also affected by the amount of carbon in the soil, which impacts how much water soil can hold.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sulfur speciation in dacitic melts using X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy of the S K -edge (S-XANES): Consideration of radiation-induced changes and the implications for sulfur in natural arc systems

Abstract The synchrotron technique of micro X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy at the sulfur K-edge (S-XANES) provides a unique opportunity to measure the proportion of different oxidation states of sulfur (S) in silicate glasses. Although applied extensively in the analysis of basaltic silicate glasses, few S-XANES studies have investigated variations in S oxidation states with fO2 in felsic silicate glasses. In addition, no study has systematically compared the S-XANES results obtained from the same samples at different photon flux densities to quantify the relationship between exposure time and changes in S speciation in silicate glass, as has been done for Fe and V. This study evaluates observed differences in S speciation measured in experimentally produced H2O-saturated dacitic glasses over a range of reducing to oxidizing conditions (from log fO2 = ΔFMQ-0.7 to ΔFMQ+3.3; FMQ is the fayalite-magnetite-quartz mineral redox buffer) and equilibrated at 1000 °C and 300 MPa. S-XANES spectra were collected at three different photon flux densities using three microspectroscopy beamlines. As is observed in S-XANES analyses of basaltic silicate glasses, beam-induced changes to the S6+/ΣS are observed as a function of photon flux density and beam exposure time. Our results demonstrate that silicate glasses of dacitic composition undergo beam-induced photo-reduction in samples equilibrated at ΔFMQ > +1.75 and photo-oxidation if equilibrated at ΔFMQ < +1. The time required to observe beam-induced changes in the spectra varies as a function of flux density, and our study establishes an upper photon density limit at ~1.0 × 1012 photons/µm2. The S6+/ΣS calculated from spectra collected below this absorbed photon limit at intermediate flux densities (~1–4 × 109 photons/s per µm2) are affected by beam damage, as no conditions were found to be completely free of beam-induced changes. However, the S6+/ΣS ratios calculated below the limit at intermediate flux densities are consistent with thermodynamic constraints, demonstrating that S6+/ΣS ratios calculated from S-XANES spectra can be considered reliable for estimating the oxygen fugacity. Our results carry important implications for the S budget of felsic magmas and dissolution mechanisms in evolved melts. While our results from all three flux densities show the presence of S4+ dissolved in relatively oxidized (ΔFMQ > +1.75) dacitic glass, even in the spectra exposed to the lowest photon densities, we are unable to rule out the possibility that the S4+ signal is the result of instantaneous X-ray irradiation induced beam damage using S-XANES alone. When our spectra are compared to S-XANES spectra from basaltic silicate glasses, important differences exist in the solubility of S2– and S6+ between dacitic silicate melts, pointing to differences in solubility mechanisms as melt composition changes. This study highlights the need for further investigation into beam damage systematics, presence of S4+, and the solubility mechanisms of different oxidation states of S as silicate melt composition changes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in SSL Device Efficiency and Optical Performance Under Accelerated Aging Conditions

Lighting application efficiency (LAE) describes the efficient delivery of light from the light source to the lighted task and is viewed as a new frontier—increasing energy savings with solid-state lighting (SSL) technologies. The framework for LAE that is proposed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) consists of four major elements: light source efficiency, optical delivery efficiency, spectral efficiency, and intensity effectiveness. This report focuses on a sampling of the available SSL products that can be broadly defined as having modified spectral output because the method of spectra modification has a significant impact on light source efficiency and long-term optical delivery and spectral efficiencies. This report focused on the changes in light source, optical delivery, and spectral efficiencies that occur during aging of SSL devices. An accelerated stress test (AST) regiment was developed for the devices under test (DUTs) examined in this report to provide insights into how the performance of SSL devices change with aging. The AST protocols demonstrate that the SSL products discussed in this report often reduce light source efficiency to achieve different spectral characteristics. In addition, aging of the optical components (e.g., lenses, solder masks) in SSL devices can produce increased light absorption, which negatively impacts optical delivery efficiency and light source efficiency. The modified spectral outputs of the selected SSL products discussed in this report come in a variety of form factors and achieve enhanced optical performance by using a variety of methods. All of the products examined in this study use mid-power light-emitting diodes (MP-LEDs), although the number, configuration, phosphor content, and light-emitting diode (LED) pump of the MP-LEDs differ. Product MS-1 is a 60-watt (W) replacement A19 lamp with a hermetically sealed glass globe, which contains an embedded optical filter to absorb green and yellow emissions, thereby creating a “sunlike” modified spectrum. Product MS-2 is a 60-W replacement A19 lamp with 30 MP-LEDs, and it uses a violet LED pump, along with green and red phosphor emissions, to produce a “healthy” spectrum. This spectrum omits blue emissions in an effort to reduce melanopic lux. Product MS-3 is an LED module consisting of 21 MP-LEDs that use a violet LED pump, along with blue, green, and red phosphors, to produce a “sunlike” spectrum. Products MS-4 and MS-5 are both 6-inch (in) downlights that use a manual switching mechanism so that users can select application-specific correlated color temperatures before installation. Products MS-4 and MS-5 both contain two LED primaries (2,700 Kelvin [K] and 5,000 K) for spectral tuning. Product MS-4 contains 12 MP-LEDs for each LED primary, and Product MS-5 contains 10 MP-LEDs for each LED primary. This report summarizes the overall findings from up to 8,000 hours (hrs) of AST on the lamp DUTs (Products MS-1 and MS-2); up to 5,000 hrs of AST on the LED light engine DUTs (Product MS-3); and up to 7,000 hrs of AST on the downlight DUTs (Products MS-4 and MS-5). The AST procedures used in this study included a room temperature operational life (RTOL) test, an operational life test conducted at 45 degrees Celsius (°C; 45OL) test, an operational life test conducted at 75°C (75OL), a wet high-temperature operational life test performed at 65°C and 90% relative humidity (6590), and a wet high-temperature operational life test performed at 75°C and 75% relative humidity (7575). The AST procedures used for Products MS-1 and MS-2 were RTOL, 45OL, and 6590. The AST procedures used for Products MS-3, MS-4, and MS-5 were RTOL, 75OL, and 7575. During the ASTs described herein, separate populations of each product (three DUTs in each population for Products MS-1, MS-2, MS-4, and MS-5; four DUTs in each population for Product MS-3) were subjected to power cycling of 1 hr on and 1 hr off. The key findings from this study include the following. Enhanced optical performance came at the cost of reduced light source efficiency for the lamps and light engines examined in this study. The optical filter used to produce a “sunlike” spectrum for Product MS-1 reduced light source efficiency by 26%, from 113 lumens per watt (lm/W) to 85 lm/W. Products MS-2 and MS-3 that used a violet-pumped LED to achieve “healthy” and “sunlike” enhanced optical performance, respectively, suffered the largest reduction in initial light source efficiency (49 lm/W for Product MS-2 and 68 lm/W for Products MS-3) perhaps because of the use of violet LED as the optical pump. Product MS-2 also had the poorest color fidelity because of undersaturation of blues and oversaturation of greens and yellows. Chromaticity maintenance of the products in this study was generally good, with parametric failure only occurring for one product at one AST condition (i.e., Product MS-3 at 7575). The chromaticity shift for Product MS-3 in 7575 test conditions resulted from reduced emissions of the broad green and red phosphors used to mimic sunlight in the 500–750 nanometer (nm) range. As a result of these phosphor emission losses, chromaticity shifted toward the more stable violet-pumped LED and blue phosphor. Although chromaticity maintenance was acceptable for most products tested, different chromaticity shift mechanisms were observed for temperature and humidity tests compared with temperature alone for Products MS-1, MS-2, and MS-3. For Product MS-1, a relative increase in green emissions was observed with humidity, which may indicate humidity-accelerated degradation of the optical filter at green wavelengths (optical delivery efficiency reduction) or degradation of the emitters in the red region (spectral efficiency reduction). The violet-pumped products (i.e., MS-2 and MS-3) exhibited different chromaticity shift behavior in the temperature-humidity environments, with Product MS-2 shifting generally yellow because of photo-induced oxidation of the plastic globe (i.e., a reduction of optical delivery efficiency) and Product MS-3 shifting toward violet and blue emitters because of faster loss of emission from green and red phosphors (i.e., a reduction in spectral efficiency). Because of an initial drop in power consumption, the light source efficiency of downlights (Products MS-4 and MS-5) increased at RTOL throughout the test duration. The light source efficiency initially increased during 75OL until a decay in luminous flux maintenance (LFM) dominated light source efficiency, whereas the light source efficiency decreased for the entire 7575 test duration. It was found that increasing the ambient environment of an SSL device from 25°C to 75°C decreases the LFM by 2.7 to 5.5, depending on design of the SSL device. Adding humidity to the system (75OL to 7575) was found to decrease LFM by another factor of approximately 3.0. A common location of failure was identified for the downlights (Products MS-4 and MS-5) operated in the 7575 environment. This failure abruptly occurred between 3,000 to 5,000 hrs of testing on the film capacitor of the electromagnetic interference (EMI) filter near the diode bridge for 11 of the 12 downlights. It is likely that this failure was caused by a combination of the high electrical voltage across the capacitor, the location of the capacitor near the heat sources (e.g., transformers, diode bridges, power resistors), and the high stress environment of 7575. Longer test times are needed to fully understand the LFM, luminous efficacy changes, and chromaticity shifts for some of the products. Because of the high reliability, light source efficiency, and spectral tuning capabilities of LEDs, the expectations of LAE for SSL products are greatly increased over traditional lighting products. The data gathered in this report begin to provide an understanding of the tradeoffs that current SSL products undergo when optimizing the different efficiency elements of LAE. As discussed in this report, the findings from the tests conducted show that the optimization of spectral efficiency can come at the cost of initial light source efficiency. Furthermore, the introduction of violet LEDs can promote long-term optical delivery efficiency degradation, and the introduction of optical filters or new phosphors can lead to unwanted spectral efficiency changes because the ratio of phosphor emitters changes with aging. The data presented in this report also identified a common failure location in 6-in downlights. The results regarding long-term behavior of the modified spectra devices studied provide valuable information about changes to the light source, spectral, and optical delivery efficiencies as the devices age. This information can be used to improve future SSL designs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing Hydrological Alteration Caused by Climate Change and Reservoir Operations in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to flow regime alteration caused by anthropogenic activities, including river regulation and atmospheric warming-induced climate change. Either climate change or reservoir operations are among the main drivers of changes in the flow regime of rivers globally. Using modeled unregulated and simulated regulated streamflow under historical and future climate scenarios, this study evaluated potential changes to the flow regime due to climate change and reservoir operations for the major tributaries of the San Joaquin River Basin, California United States. We selected a set of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) to evaluate historical and projected future trends of streamflow dynamics: rise and fall rates, durations and counts of low and high pulses, and the magnitude of extremes. Results show that most indicators have pronounced departures from baseline conditions under anticipated future climate conditions given existing reservoir operations. For example, the high pulse count decreases during regulated flow conditions compared to increased frequency under unregulated flow conditions. Finally, we observed a higher degree of flow regime alteration due to reservoir operations than climate change. The degree of alteration ranges from 1.0 to 9.0% across the basin among all future climate scenarios, while reservoir operations alter the flow regime with a degree of alteration from 8.0 to 25%. This study extends multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration analysis to inform climate adaptation strategies in managed river systems.

Maskey, Mahesh L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Change Detection Applications in the Earth Sciences Using UAS-Based Sensing: A Review and Future Opportunities

Over the past decade, advancements in collection platforms such as unoccupied aerial systems (UAS), survey-grade GNSS, sensor packages, processing software, and spatial analytical tools have facilitated change detection analyses at an unprecedented resolution over broader spatial and temporal extents and in environments where such investigations present challenges. These technological improvements, coupled with the accessibility and versatility of UAS technology, have pushed the boundaries of spatial and temporal scales in geomorphic change detection. As a result, the cm-scale analysis of topographic signatures can detect and quantify surface anomalies during geomorphic evolution. This review focuses on the use of UAS photogrammetry for fine spatial (cm) and temporal (hours to days) scale geomorphic analyses, and it highlights analytical approaches to detect and quantify surface processes that were previously elusive. The review provides insight into topographic change characterization with precise spatial validations applied to landscape processes in various fields, such as the cryosphere and geosphere, as well as anthropogenic earth processes and national security applications. This work sheds light on previously unexplored aspects of both natural and human-engineered environments, demonstrating the potential of UAS observations in change detection. Our discussion examines the emerging horizons of UAS-based change detection, including machine learning and LIDAR systems. In addition, our meta-analysis of spatial and temporal UAS-based observations highlights the new fine-scale niche of UAS-photogrammetry. This scale advancement sets a new frontier in change detection, offering exciting possibilities for the future of land surface analysis and environmental monitoring in the field of Earth Science.

Andresen, Christian G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey: Changing-look Quasar Candidates from Multi-epoch Spectroscopy in SDSS-IV

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) can vary significantly in their rest-frame optical/UV continuum emission, and with strong associated changes in broad line emission, on much shorter timescales than predicted by standard models of accretion disks around supermassive black holes. Most such changing-look or changing-state AGN—and at higher luminosities, changing-look quasars (CLQs)—have been found via spectroscopic follow-up of known quasars showing strong photometric variability. The Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV) includes repeat spectroscopy of large numbers of previously known quasars, many selected irrespective of photometric variability, and with spectral epochs separated by months to decades. Our visual examination of these repeat spectra for strong broad line variability yielded 61 newly discovered CLQ candidates. We quantitatively compare spectral epochs to measure changes in continuum and Hβ broad line emission, finding 19 CLQs, of which 15 are newly recognized. The parent sample includes only broad line quasars, so our study tends to find objects that have dimmed, i.e., turn-off CLQs. However, we nevertheless find four turn-on CLQs that meet our criteria, albeit with broad lines in both dim and bright states. We study the response of Hβ and Mg ii emission lines to continuum changes. The Eddington ratios of CLQs are low, and/or their Hβ broad line width is large relative to the overall quasar population. Repeat quasar spectroscopy in the upcoming SDSS-V black hole Mapper program will reveal significant numbers of CLQs, enhancing our understanding of the frequency and duty cycle of such strong variability, and the physics and dynamics of the phenomenon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soil organic matter diagenetic state informs boreal forest ecosystem feedbacks to climate change

The fate of soil organic carbon (SOC) in boreal forests is dependent on the integrative ecosystem response to climate change. For example, boreal forest productivity is often nitrogen (N) limited, and climate warming can enhance N cycling and primary productivity. However, the net effect of this feedback on the SOC reservoir and its longevity with climate change remain unclear due to difficulty in detecting small differences between large and variable carbon (C) fluxes needed to determine net changes in soil reservoirs. The diagenetic state of SOC – resulting from the physicochemical and biological transformations that alter the original biomolecular composition of detrital inputs to soil over time – is useful for tracing the net response of SOC at the timescales relevant to climate change not usually discernible from fluxes and stocks alone. Here, we test two hypotheses using a mesic boreal forest climate transect: (1) the SOC diagenetic state is maintained across this climosequence, and (2) the maintenance of the SOC diagenetic state is a consequence of coupled soil C and N cycling, signifying the role of enhanced N cycling supporting SOC inputs that maintain SOC stocks within the warmer-climate forests. Shifts in nonvascular to vascular plant inputs with climate observed in these and other boreal forests highlighted the need to carefully separate biogeochemical indicators of SOC source from those signifying diagenetic alteration. We thus evaluated and applied lignin biomarkers to assess the diagenetic alteration of SOC in these boreal forest organic soils and directly compared the lignin diagenetic state with that of soil organic nitrogen (SON) assessed through amino acid composition. The lignin diagenetic state remained constant across the climate transect, indicating a balance between the input and removal of lignin in these mesic boreal forests. When combined with previous knowledge of these forest ecosystems, including the diagenetic state of SON and direct measures of C fluxes and stocks, the results indicate a coupled increase in C and N cycling with climate warming that supports forest productivity and maintains SOC stocks. This balance could markedly shift as other factors begin to limit forest productivity (e.g., trace nutrients, water) with further climate change or affect forest nutrient allocation (e.g., forest age or compositional change). Further application of the approach presented here could be used to detect the limits of this and other ecosystem–climate feedbacks, by providing a tractable and parameterizable index of the lignin state across large spatial scales, necessary for ecosystem-scale parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Diagnosing the sensitivity of grounding-line flux to changes in sub-ice-shelf melting

Abstract. Using a numerical ice flow model, we study changes in ice shelf buttressing and grounding-line flux due to localized ice thickness perturbations, a proxy for localized changes in sub-ice-shelf melting. From our experiments, applied to idealized (MISMIP+) and realistic (Larsen C) ice shelf domains, we identify a correlation between a locally derived buttressing number on the ice shelf, based on the first principal stress, and changes in the integrated grounding-line flux. The origin of this correlation, however, remains elusive from the perspective of a theoretical or physically based understanding. This and the fact that the correlation is generally much poorer when applied to realistic ice shelf domains motivate us to seek an alternative approach for predicting changes in grounding-line flux. We therefore propose an adjoint-based method for calculating the sensitivity of the integrated grounding-line flux to local changes in ice shelf geometry. We show that the adjoint-based sensitivity is identical to that deduced from pointwise, diagnostic model perturbation experiments. Based on its much wider applicability and the significant computational savings, we propose that the adjoint-based method is ideally suited for assessing grounding-line flux sensitivity to changes in sub-ice-shelf melting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

A design handbook for phase change thermal control and energy storage devices

Comprehensive survey is given of the thermal aspects of phase change material devices. Fundamental mechanisms of heat transfer within the phase change device are discussed. Performance in zero-g and one-g fields are examined as it relates to such a device. Computer models for phase change materials, with metal fillers, undergoing conductive and convective processes are detailed. Using these models, extensive parametric data are presented for a hypothetical configuration with a rectangular phase change housing, using straight fins as the filler, and paraffin as the phase change material. These data are generated over a range of realistic sizes, material properties, and thermal boundary conditions. A number of illustrative examples are given to demonstrate use of the parametric data. Also, a complete listing of phase change material property data are reproduced herein as an aid to the reader.

Humphries, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Neutral changes during divergent evolution of hemoglobins

A comparison of the mRNAs for rabbit and human beta-hemoglobins shows that synonymous changes in codons have accumulated three times as rapidly as nucleotide replacements that produced changes in amino acids. This agrees with predictions based on the so-called neutral theory. In addition, seven codon changes that appear to be single-base changes (according to maximum parsimony) are actually two-base changes. This indicates that the construction of primordial sequences is of limited significance when based on inferences that assume minimum base changes for amino acid replacements.

Jukes, T. H.↗