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At least 451 records · Page 25

Resilient buildings for fire-adapted landscapes: EE and flexible loads integrated with solar and storage microgrids

Energy efficiency (EE) and flexible loads can be part of a resilient buildings packagewhen they are combined with solar and storage in a clean energy microgrid to reduce the carbonfootprint of buildings and enable resilience to extreme events. Recent large wildfires and an emerging understanding of the fire-adapted landscapes in the American West underscore the urgency of work towards scaling and commercializing these systems. For example, a recent power shutoff in Northern California (October 9-12, 2019) resulted in 738k customers disconnected at the peak of the outage and is emblematic of challenges to come. Our paper reports on insights from a clean energy microgrid deployment pilot that integrates a 50 kWAC PV array, a 109 kW / 174 kWh battery system, switchgear to safely isolate from the regional power system, and communicating controllers for HVAC and refrigeration. The project will be commissioned in May 2020 and is sited at a critical infrastructure site in rural Northern California – in this case a gasoline station with convenience store. Our experience and results shed light on capabilities of integrated microgrids to provide value to customers during blue sky conditions and resilience during black sky days with high fire risk, and what opportunities and barriers exist for scaling these integrated microgrid systems in the near term. We use a simulation model to estimate how EE and flexibility can extend the run time of solar and storage, improving the reliability of power at critical sites.

Alstone, Peter↗

Science-integrated Artificial-intelligence for Flooding and precipitation Extremes (SAFE)

A grand challenge in hydrologic science is to understand why signals of climate change and variability, which are often visible in precipitation extremes at aggregate scales, are not consistently observed in the case of extreme flooding. However, a solution to this challenge may prove elusive unless the water cycle is viewed in an integrative manner. Thus, for riverine flooding, while Hortonian (infiltration excess) runoff may have stronger correlation with precipitation extremes and hence perhaps to warming trends or climate oscillators, Dunne (saturation excess) runoff may have a more complex relationships with time series of precipitation and with evaporation and transpiration, but rain-on-snow and snowmelt events may depend on land-surface and atmospheric temperatures. Atmospheric rivers and tropical cyclones lead to precipitation or flooding and are impacted by climate. Flooding assessments need to consider long-term baselines, evolving risk factors, coupled natural-human systems, and novel adaptation such as nature-inspired design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF NOVEL MATERIALS BASED ON RELIABILITY INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT USING CUMULATIVE DAMAGE MODELING

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the 2019 ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain remaining technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. A modeling approach potentially applicable to item (b), based on cumulative damage modeling rather than failure rates, is briefly illustrated.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multirate linearly-implicit GARK schemes

Many complex applications require the solution of initial-value problems where some components change fast, while others vary slowly. Multirate schemes apply different step sizes to resolve different components of the system, according to their dynamics, in order to achieve increased computational efficiency. The stiff components of the system, fast or slow, are best discretized with implicit base methods in order to ensure numerical stability. To this end, linearly implicit methods are particularly attractive as they solve only linear systems of equations at each step. This paper develops the Multirate GARK-ROS/ROW (MR-GARK-ROS/ROW) framework for linearly-implicit multirate time integration. The order conditions theory considers both exact and approximative Jacobians. The effectiveness of implicit multirate methods depends on the coupling between the slow and fast computations; an array of efficient coupling strategies and the resulting numerical schemes are analyzed. Multirate infinitesimal step linearly-implicit methods, that allow arbitrarily small micro-steps and offer extreme computational flexibility, are constructed. The new unifying framework includes existing multirate Rosenbrock(-W) methods as particular cases, and opens the possibility to develop new classes of highly effective linearly implicit multirate integrators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Manufactured solutions for an electromagnetic slot model

The accurate modeling of electromagnetic penetration is an important topic in computational electromagnetics. Electromagnetic penetration occurs through intentional or inadvertent openings in an otherwise closed electromagnetic scatterer, which prevent the contents from being fully shielded from external fields. To efficiently model electromagnetic penetration, aperture or slot models can be used with surface integral equations to solve Maxwell's equations. A necessary step towards establishing the credibility of these models is to assess the correctness of the implementation of the underlying numerical methods through code verification. Surface integral equations and slot models yield multiple interacting sources of numerical error and other challenges, which render traditional code-verification approaches ineffective. In this paper, we provide approaches to separately measure the numerical errors arising from these different error sources for the method-of-moments implementation of the electric-field integral equation with a slot model. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches for a variety of cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Linear growth of circuit complexity from Brownian dynamics

How rapidly can a many-body quantum system generate randomness? Using path integral methods, we demonstrate that Brownian quantum systems have circuit complexity that grows linearly with time. In particular, we study Brownian clusters of N spins or fermions with time-dependent all-to-all interactions, and calculate the Frame Potential to characterize complexity growth in these models. In both cases the problem can be mapped to an effective statistical mechanics problem which we study using path integral methods. Within this framework it is straightforward to show that the kth Frame Potential comes within ϵ of the Haar value after a time of order t ~ kN + k log k + log ϵ –1 . Using a bound on the diamond norm, this implies that such circuits are capable of coming very close to a unitary k-design after a time of order t ~ kN. We also consider the same question for systems with a time-independent Hamiltonian and argue that a small amount of time-dependent randomness is sufficient to generate a k-design in linear time provided the underlying Hamiltonian is quantum chaotic. These models provide explicit examples of linear complexity growth that are analytically tractable and are directly applicable to practical applications calling for unitary k-designs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Advancing Urban Water Resilience: Coproducing Knowledge through Civic–Academic Global Partnerships on Water and Climate

As extreme weather events become more pronounced, the vulnerabilities associated with the urban water supply and wastewater systems in megacities are intensified in multiple interconnected dimensions. These multifaceted water challenges can benefit from enhanced cross-sectoral collaboration and sharing of critical knowledge, which are essential for sustainable and adaptive water governance frameworks. In this context, the Megacity Alliance for Water and Climate (MAWAC)–Europe and North America Region (ENAR) Working Group convened a workshop in March 2023, followed by a subsequent workshop in London, United Kingdom, from 11 to 13 September 2024. These workshops aimed to investigate and devise solutions for the cascading hazards with water systems. The solutions examined various aspects focused on climate adaptation and mitigation, stormwater management, and the governance of water and wastewater systems. Additionally, discussions highlighted the importance of community engagement, economic considerations, equity, and effective communication in addressing these pressing challenges. Over the course of 3 days, experts from academia, government agencies, and industry engaged in meaningful discussions on digital modeling for integrated water management, climate-informed urban planning, and public–private–academic partnerships (Fig. 1). Case studies from cities such as New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, and Chicago highlighted innovative governance strategies for managing water and wastewater systems, promoting water reuse, planning infrastructure, and fostering stakeholder-driven and stakeholder-informed adaptation. The workshop participants emphasized the need for data-driven decision-making, scalable governance models, and knowledge-sharing networks to enhance urban water governance for sustainability and resilience. This workshop report presents the key takeaways from the 3-day convening, providing a roadmap for integrating scientific research, policy frameworks, and emerging technologies to address water challenges faced by megacities.

Hydrologic models↗

Microscopic-macroscopic level densities for low excitation energies

Level density ρ(E,Q) is derived within the micro-macroscopic approximation (MMA) for a system of strongly interacting Fermi particles with the energy E and additional integrals of motion Q , in line with several topics of the universal and fruitful activity of A. S. Davydov. Within the extended Thomas Fermi and semiclassical periodic orbit theory beyond the Fermi-gas saddle-point method, we obtain ρ ∝ I ν (S)/S ν , where I ν (S) is the modified Bessel function of the entropy S . For small shell-structure contribution, one finds ν = κ/2 + 1, where κ is the number of additional integrals of motion. This integer number is a dimension of Q, Q = { N, Z , …} for the case of two-component atomic nuclei, where N and Z are the numbers of neutrons and protons, respectively. For much larger shell structure contributions, one obtains ν = κ /2 + 2. The MMA level density ρ reaches the well-known Fermi gas asymptote for large excitation energies and the finite micro-canonical combinatoric limit for low excitation energies. Further, the additional integrals of motion can also be the projection of the angular momentum of a nuclear system for nuclear rotations of deformed nuclei, number of excitons for collective dynamics, and so on. Fitting the MMA total level density ρ( E , Q) for a set of the integrals of motion Q = { N, Z }, to experimental data on a long nuclear isotope chain for low excitation energies, one obtains the results for the inverse level-density parameter K , which differs significantly from those of neutron resonances due to shell, isotopic asymmetry, and pairing effects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Defining a Use Case for the ADMS Test Bed: Fault Location, Isolation, and Service Restoration with Distributed Energy Resources

Advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) integrate multiple enterprise-level functions into a single platform and offer advanced applications such as fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR), to utilities to meet their operational needs for a modernized grid. These applications need to operate reliably even as distributed energy resource (DER) penetration increases on distribution systems. The ADMS test bed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory offers utilities and vendors the opportunity to evaluate the performance of such advanced applications on distribution feeders of the future and to understand their potential benefits for a specific utility. This is done through defining use cases that address specific questions. This paper presents the definition of a use case on the performance of a commercially-available FLISR application on a feeder of an electric cooperative with DERs. After experiments are completed, results from this use case will be disseminated to the electric utility and research community to improve understanding of the challenges and benefits that DERs present to ADMS applications and the operation of a modernized grid.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Interleaved Cuk Converter Wave Energy System With Advanced Control and Grid Support Functions for Seamless Integration: Preprint

This paper presents an innovative wave energy conversion system employing an interleaved Cuk converter and advanced nonlinear control for seamless integration with the grid. The proposed system utilizes the interleaved Cuk converter for efficient power extraction on the DC side, while an inverter facilitates power transfer to the grid or load on the AC side. A sophisticated nonlinear control architecture based on Lyapunov energy functions ensures stable and optimal operation under varying wave conditions. Case study results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, highlighting its ability to efficiently harness wave energy and seamlessly integrate with the grid, thus paving the way for sustainable and reliable renewable energy generation. The overall system is verified via computer simulations based on MATLAB/Simulink and various case study results are presented.

HYDRO ENERGY,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finite-element boundary-integral simulation of thin wires and inhomogeneous penetrable bodies in subsurface multilayered anisotropic media

With the prevailing presence of drilling wells near the subsurface in mature oil and gas fields, the application of electromagnetic methods can be particularly challenging where the electromagnetic field is affected by the steel casing. In the past decades, borehole-to-surface and crosswell electromagnetic methods have been utilized for monitoring of reservoir and underground CO 2 storage. This paper presents a unified finite-element boundary-integral (FEBI) method capable of simultaneously modeling the complex electromagnetic interactions between thin metallic wires (representing steel casings) with 3D trajectory and arbitrary 3D inhomogeneous penetrable bodies (such as CO 2 plumes or hydrocarbon reservoirs) within anisotropic multilayered subsurface environments. Unlike existing approaches that treat these components separately or require dense discretization, or are limited to vertical wells, our unified formulation preserves flexible electromagnetic coupling while delivering improved computational efficiency. Assuming the background formation is multilayered anisotropic media, the surface integral equation method is applied to model the thin wires and boundaries of the inhomogeneous bodies. Meanwhile, the finite element method is applied to model the volume of inhomogeneous bodies. Here, the performance of the proposed FEBI method is assessed through comparison with reference numerical results and its practical significance is demonstrated through CO 2 plume monitoring scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Subleading corrections in $ \mathcal{N} $ = 3 Gaiotto-Tomasiello theory

We study subleading corrections to the genus-zero free energy of the N = 3 Gaiotto-Tomasiello theory. In general, we obtain the endpoints and free energy as a set of parametric equations via contour integrals of the planar resolvent, up to exponentially suppressed corrections. In the particular case that the two gauge groups in the quiver are of equal rank, we find an explicit (perturbative) expansion for the free energy. If, additionally, both groups have equal levels, then we find the full expression for the genus-zero free energy, modulo exponentially suppressed corrections. We also verify our results numerically.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A space-time parallel algorithm with adaptive mesh refinement for computational fluid dynamics

This work describes a space-time parallel algorithm with space-time adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). AMR with subcycling is added to multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) in order to provide solution efficient adaptive grids with a reduction in work performed on coarser grids. This algorithm is achieved by integrating two software libraries: XBraid (Parallel time integration with multigrid. https://computation.llnl.gov/projects/parallel-timeintegration-multigrid) and Chombo (Chombo software package for AMR applications—design document, 2014). The former is a parallel time integration library using multigrid and the latter is a massively parallel structured AMR library. Employing this adaptive space-time parallel algorithm is Chord (Comput Fluids 123:202–217, 2015), a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) application code for solving compressible fluid dynamics problems. For the same solution accuracy, speedups are demonstrated from the use of space-time parallelization over the time-sequential integration on Couette flow and Stokes’ second problem. On a transient Couette flow case, at least a 1.5× speedup is achieved, and with a time periodic problem, a speedup of up to 13.7× over the time-sequential case is obtained. In both cases, the speedup is achieved by adding processors and exploring additional parallelization in time. The numerical experiments show the algorithm is promising for CFD applications that can take advantage of the time parallelism. Future work will focus on improving the parallel performance and providing more tests with complex fluid dynamics to demonstrate the full potential of the algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Direct, simple and efficient computation of all components of the virtual-casing magnetic field in axisymmetric geometries with Kapur–Rokhlin quadrature

In a recent publication (Toler et al., J. Plasma Phys., vol. 89, issue 2, 2023, p. 905890210), we demonstrated that for axisymmetric geometries, the Kapur–Rokhlin quadrature rule provided an efficient and high-order accurate method for computing the normal component, on the plasma surface, of the magnetic field due to the toroidal current flowing in the plasma, via the virtual-casing principle. The calculation was indirect, as it required the prior computation of the magnetic vector potential from the virtual-casing principle, followed by the computation of its tangential derivative by Fourier differentiation, to obtain the normal component of the magnetic field. Our approach did not provide the other components of the virtual-casing magnetic field. In this letter, we show that a more direct and more general approach is available for the computation of the virtual-casing magnetic field. The Kapur–Rokhlin quadrature rule accurately calculates the principal value integrals in the expression for all the components of the magnetic field on the plasma boundary, and the numerical error converges at a rate nearly as high as the indirect method we presented previously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

PRODeepSyn: predicting anticancer synergistic drug combinations by embedding cell lines with protein–protein interaction network

Abstract Although drug combinations in cancer treatment appear to be a promising therapeutic strategy with respect to monotherapy, it is arduous to discover new synergistic drug combinations due to the combinatorial explosion. Deep learning technology holds immense promise for better prediction of in vitro synergistic drug combinations for certain cell lines. In methods applying such technology, omics data are widely adopted to construct cell line features. However, biological network data are rarely considered yet, which is worthy of in-depth study. In this study, we propose a novel deep learning method, termed PRODeepSyn, for predicting anticancer synergistic drug combinations. By leveraging the Graph Convolutional Network, PRODeepSyn integrates the protein–protein interaction (PPI) network with omics data to construct low-dimensional dense embeddings for cell lines. PRODeepSyn then builds a deep neural network with the Batch Normalization mechanism to predict synergy scores using the cell line embeddings and drug features. PRODeepSyn achieves the lowest root mean square error of 15.08 and the highest Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75, outperforming two deep learning methods and four machine learning methods. On the classification task, PRODeepSyn achieves an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve of 0.90, an area under the precision–recall curve of 0.63 and a Cohen’s Kappa of 0.53. In the ablation study, we find that using the multi-omics data and the integrated PPI network’s information both can improve the prediction results. Additionally, the case study demonstrates the consistency between PRODeepSyn and previous studies.

Wang, Xiaowen↗