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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Lone-Electron-Pair Micelles Strengthen Bond Anharmonicity in MnPb16Sb14S38 Complex Sulfosalt Leading to Ultra-Low Thermal Conductivity

Designing crystalline solids in which intrinsic extremely low lattice thermal conductivity mainly arises from its unique bonding nature rather than structure complexity and/or atomic disorder could promote thermal energy manipulation and utilization for applications ranging from thermoelectric energy conversion to thermal barrier coatings. Here, we report an extremely low lattice thermal conductivity of ~0.34 W m-1 K-1 at 300 K in the new complex sulfosalt MnPb16Sb14S38. We attribute the ultra-low lattice thermal conductivity to a synergistic combination of scattering mechanisms involving (1) strong bond anharmonicity in various structural building units, owing to the presence of stereoactive lone-electron-pair (LEP) micelles, and (2) phonon scattering at the interfaces between building units of increasing size and complexity. Remarkably, low-temperature heat capacity measurement revealed a Cp value of 0.206 J g-1 K-1 at T > 300 K, which is 22% lower than the Dulong-Petit value (0.274 J g-1 K-1). Further analysis of the Cp data and sound velocity (ν = 1834 m/s) measurement yielded Debye temperature values of 161 K and 187 K, respectively. Here, the resulting Grüneisen parameter, γ = 1.65, further supports strong bond anharmonicity as the dominant mechanism responsible for the observed extremely low lattice thermal conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

New U.S. Data Tools are Playing a Crucial Role in Decarbonizing Buildings at Speed, Scale, and Low Cost

Preparing buildings for retrofits traditionally requires expensive on-site audits or timeintensive simulation models. As a result, the majority of buildings fail to pursue cost-saving retrofits. To address these barriers, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has introduced the Building Efficiency Targeting Tool for Energy Retrofits (BETTER)-a new, free, on-line tool that utilizes a data-driven analytical engine and user-friendly web interface to automatically analyze a building's monthly energy usage in response to weather conditions. The tool benchmarks a building's electric and fossil energy usage against peers; estimates energy, cost, and emissions reductions at the building and portfolio levels; recommends energy efficiency measures; and prioritizes buildings for net-zero energy retrofits. Thanks to interoperability with the DOE's Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) platform, BETTER is supporting U.S. jurisdictions to prepare buildings for retrofit at speed, scale, and low cost to comply with energy policies. This paper discusses the use of BETTER and SEED by one of the branches of the California state government to streamline a retrofit program across 455 public non-residential buildings to align with state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It describes the organization's challenge to reduce energy consumption across a geographically diverse, aging portfolio; explores how BETTER and SEED improved workflow efficiency; presents preliminary results, including avoiding audit costs of $3.28 million and developing the groundwork for retrofit projects estimated to prevent emission of 2,271 t CO2e annually; and provides guidance for other jurisdictions seeking similar results.

BETTER↗
DOE OSTI2023

The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands

There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Characterization of 316L Stainless Steel after Solid Phase Processing using Ultrasonic NDE Method

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). A motivation of the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project was to demonstrate ultrasonic testing as a nondestructive evaluation method to complement traditional destructive methods for characterizing material microstructure with emphasis on grain size determination using a method that may have future applications for real-time inline process monitoring. The objective of the work described in this report is to establish the process and an analysis method for measuring grain sizes of polycrystalline metals with ultrafine grains using ultrasonic shear wave backscattering, building on prior studies on coarser-grained material. The work involves five tasks: Measured ultrasonic backscattering experimentally for a series of 316L stainless steel specimens with various grain sizes made by friction stir processing. Calculated ultrasonic backscattering coefficients from experimental data based on a physical measurement model. Measured ground truth grain sizes of the specimens from electron backscatter diffraction grain boundary images using a generalization of the ASTM E112 (ASTM 2021) intercept method. Built a curve of ultrasonic backscattering coefficients versus the ground truth intercept-based grain sizes to determine the correlation between mean grain sizes and ultrasonic measurements. Demonstrated the ability of using the correlation curve to deduce grain sizes with measured ultrasonic backscattering coefficients for a few 316L stainless steel specimens whose grain sizes were unknown beforehand but were targeted to be an extrapolation to larger grain sizes than used to formulate the correlation curves. Experimental procedures and computational algorithms are developed and validated for these tasks. This work establishes an ultrasonic technique for characterizing material microstructure with ultrafine grains that are often resulted by solid-phase processing. The technique is nondestructive, and it has the potential to be used for real time inline process monitoring. This work successfully demonstrates the viability of an ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation method for microstructural characterization of material having ultrafine grain structure (as small as 1?mm) and produced by an advanced manufacturing method. This includes a demonstration of the method to extrapolate to other conditions. While not demonstrated here, the method is expected to be viable for in-line, or near-inline, process monitoring in advanced manufacturing applications with suitable consideration for access of instrumentation to the material being manufactured.

316 L Stainless Steel↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Examination of the Nature of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

We introduce global cloud regimes (previously also referred to as "weather states") derived from cloud retrievals that use measurements by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. The regimes are obtained by applying clustering analysis on joint histograms of retrieved cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness. By employing a compositing approach on data sets from satellites and other sources, we examine regime structural and thermodynamical characteristics. We establish that the MODIS cloud regimes tend to form in distinct dynamical and thermodynamical environments and have diverse profiles of cloud fraction and water content. When compositing radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instrument and surface precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, we find that regimes with a radiative warming effect on the atmosphere also produce the largest implied latent heat. Taken as a whole, the results of the study corroborate the usefulness of the cloud regime concept, reaffirm the fundamental nature of the regimes as appropriate building blocks for cloud system classification, clarify their association with standard cloud types, and underscore their distinct radiative and hydrological signatures.

radiation↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Statistical Evaluation of Combining Human Productivity Metrics in the Indoor Environment

The potential of improving human productivity by providing healthy indoor environments has been a consistent interest in the building field for decades. This research field's long-standing challenge is to measure human productivity given the complex nature of office work. Previous studies have diversified productivity metrics, allowing greater flexibility in collecting human data; however, this diversity complicates the ability to combine productivity metrics from disparate studies within a meta-analysis. This study aims to categorize existing productivity metrics and statistically assess which categories show similar behavior when used to measure the impacts of indoor environmental quality. The 106 productivity metrics compiled were grouped into six productivity metric categories: neurobehavioral speed, accuracy, neurobehavioral response time, call handling time, self-reported productivity, and performance score. Then, this study set neurobehavioral speed as the baseline category given its fitness to the efficiency-based definition of productivity (i.e., output versus input) and conducted three statistical analyses with the other categories to evaluate their similarity. As results, the categories of neurobehavioral response time, self-reported productivity, and call handling time were found to have statistical similarity with neurobehavioral speed. This study contributes to creating a constructive research environment for future meta-analyses to understand which human productivity metrics can be combined with each other.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Characterization of the Most Important Thermal Energy Applications in Buildings and Industry (Report 1)

This report is the first in a three-report series that evaluates the provision of renewable heat for industry and buildings via current and prospective renewable thermal energy system (RTES) technologies. The RTES project has undertaken initial research focused on technologies that could be suited for industrial process heat applications at different temperature levels, and, where possible, gathered performance and cost data for these technologies. This project does not directly evaluate RTES for distributed residential or commercial applications, nor does it yet include documented cases or modeling of RTES using geothermal, biomass, waste heat, renewable fuels like renewable natural gas, or hydrogen production. The three technical reports are summarized as follows: Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Characterization of the Most Important Thermal Energy Applications in Buildings and Industry (Report 1), this report: summary of thermal demands of U.S. industry and buildings, and relevant hybrid RTES configurations; Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Systemic Challenges and Transformational Policies (Report 2): discussion of socio-technical characteristics of RTES, innovation challenges, and supporting policies. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/83020.pdf; Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Modeling Developments and Future Directions (Report 3): Energy yield and performance modeling of RTES, techno-economic analysis via case studies, and proposed development of a user decision support tool. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/83021.pdf.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring New Ways to Classify Industries for Energy Analysis and Modeling

As the US moves closer to embracing a net zero greenhouse gas emissions position, combustion processes outside the power sector are becoming urgent concerns. Industry is an important end user of energy and relies on fossil fuels used directly for process heating and as feedstocks for a diverse range of applications. Fuel and energy use by industry is heterogeneous, meaning that even a single product group can vary broadly in its production routes and associated energy usage. In the US, the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) serves as the basis for data collection and reporting. In turn, data based on NAICS is the foundation of most US energy modeling. Thus, the effectiveness of NAICS at representing energy use is a limiting condition for plans to improve energy efficiency and alternatives to fossil fuels in industry. Facility-level data to build more detail into heterogeneous sectors is scarce. This work explores alternative classification schemes for industry based on energy use characteristics, and provides a validation of an approach to make facility-level energy use estimates based on publicly available data from the greenhouse gas reporting program. First, several approaches to industrial taxonomies and their usefulness for industrial energy modeling are summarized. Data from Industrial Assessment Centers is analyzed using unsupervised machine learning techniques to detect clusters. Cladistics, an approach from biology, is adapted to energy and process characteristics of industries. A cladogram is presented for evolutionary directions in the iron and steel sector. Cladograms are a promising tool for constructing scenarios and summarizing directions of sectoral innovation. Finally, validation is performed for facility-level energy estimates from the US EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. This validation assists in making this data source available for use in energy modeling. Together, this work explores alternative approaches for categorizing industries in a way that aids understanding energy use, and presenting pathways for the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

MARSAME Radiological Release Report TA-50, TRU Liquid Waste Construction Soil

Environmental Protection and Compliance, Environmental Stewardship (EPC-ES) has determined that the soil associated with Technical Area 50 (TA-50), Transuranic (TRU) Liquid Waste construction project (TLW) meets the criteria for unrestricted release to the public under Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1, Radiation Protection for the Public and the Environment (DOE 2020, NNSA 2021). This conclusion is based on the known history of the area combined with soil sample data collected in 2021; the findings are consistent with DOE Order 458.1 and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Functional Series Document EPC ES-FSD-004, Environmental Radiation Protection (LANL 2020a). Sampling and data analysis, as described in this report, were sufficient to meet measurement quality objectives under the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Assessment of Materials and Equipment (MARSAME) manual (MARSAME 2000) and LANL procedures (LANL 2020b). Final approvals for waste disposition will come from LANL’s Waste Management Program. The scope of this final release report includes the TLW construction site soil located south of TA-50, Building 001.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2025

Airports as Energy Nodes Activity Summary

Advanced aircraft concepts that use non-traditional aviation energy storage methods such as batteries or cryogenic hydrogen are in development and expected to enter regular service at airports worldwide within the next decade. The energy needs for these aircraft may quickly overwhelm the existing energy infrastructure at airports, particularly at smaller and more remote facilities. Without energy upgrades, these airports will not be able to host these advanced vehicles, but without the advanced vehicle traffic, these airports will not have the rationale or funding to build up their energy infrastructure. The Airports as Energy Nodes (ÆNodes) activity, a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was executed to understand and model the energy needs that advanced aircraft concepts may levy on these smaller airports, determine cost-effective approaches to enhance the airport energy infrastructure, and demonstrate the enhanced resilience of these energy infrastructure upgrades to the airport and surrounding community via “digital twin” simulation at relevant energy and dynamic time scales. The ÆNodes team also investigated future reference aircraft designs and materials to enable cryogenic hydrogen storage for aircraft. The ÆNodes team conducted analysis at two U.S. airport partner sites — Winchester Regional Airport in Winchester, Virginia, and Tweed/New Haven Airport in New Haven, Connecticut. The goal of this partnership was to develop data and reference infrastructure designs that could accommodate advanced aircraft in the future at these airports while also enhancing the resiliency of the energy supply to the surrounding airport community, which could be used to capture funding to enable the infrastructure upgrades. Over the course of the study, a method was developed to estimate air traffic requiring advanced energy services over the course of a year using a mix of historical data and companion studies on advanced aircraft transportation networks. The study has concluded at NASA but continues at NREL, who will develop a final report discussing the energy infrastructure upgrades and digital twin results. Preliminary results indicate that unrestricted adoption of advanced battery-electric aircraft may double traffic at these airports and increase peak daily power usage by an order of magnitude, while increase electricity energy needs by a factor of two to four. The infrastructure upgrades necessary to accommodate these increased energy needs could be used to provide enhanced energy services to the airport community to offset the cost and increase the utility of the upgrades, which will be described in the NREL final report.

Airports↗
DOE OSTI2024

MICROREACTOR APPLICATIONS, RESEARCH, VALIDATION, AND EVALUATION (MARVEL) REACTOR ? STATUS, CONSTRUCTION, AND TESTING

The paper presents the current status of the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor design, qualification testing, fabrication, and high-level construction schedule. An overview of initial criticality, low power physics testing, and start-up testing is included, as well as an overview of the envisioned processes in which end-users can engage the project for access to operational data or specific demonstrations. Designed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy’s Microreactor Program for construction and operation at the INL, MARVEL is a small, fully functional advanced reactor with UZrH fuel and thermal output of 85 kW. It offers a unique opportunity for scaled demonstrations that can dramatically accelerate the design, licensing, and deployment of commercial microreactors for power production or process heat applications. MARVEL’s objective is to build a small liquid-metal thermal reactor at the INL to demonstrate design and operating processes for microreactors, microgrid integration, and process heat applications. MARVEL finished 90%-final-design in September 2023 and completed an independent project assessment in early 2024. Fabrication of long-lead components and fuel, safety analysis review, and procurement for construction are underway. MARVEL assembly and construction will start in 2025 and fuel loading is expected in mid- 2027. Initial criticality will be performed in a dry condition in late 2027, followed by loading of NaK coolant and start-up testing. Approximately six months later, release for unrestricted operations will enable subsequent testing of microreactor characteristics, microgrid integration and select heat extraction applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Louisville Communities LEAP Engagement: Improving Energy Efficiency in Affordable Housing [Slides]

This presentation outlines the initial results from a year-plus engagement between the National Renewable Energy Lab and Louisville, Kentucky through the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) effort. Louisville, as represented by the Louisville Metro Government, Kentuckians for the Commonwealth, and the Metropolitan Housing Coalition, sought technical assistance from the labs to address energy usage in its residential housing stock as part of efforts to reduce community-wide emissions and high energy burdens throughout its community. The Communities LEAP scope of work included an energy efficiency analysis that leveraged ResStock data to identify key efficient technologies to explore for retrofitting Louisville's housing stock; technical support around developing a community benchmarking ordinance to help Louisville track its progress towards reducing energy usage; a workforce development overview to help Louisville ensure a sufficient and equitable distribution of clean-energy-related jobs supported by its energy efficiency efforts; a policy analysis component to track energy efficiency related policies Louisville may be interested in adapting from peer communities across the country; and a financing analysis component to identify opportunities to lower the barrier to clean energy adoption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model-based data center cooling controls comparative co-design

This article presents a comparative simulation-based control logic design process. It uses the Control Description Language (CDL) and the ASHRAE Guideline 36 high-performing building control sequences with the Modelica Buildings Library (MBL) to demonstrate a comparative analysis of two control designs for a data center chilled water plant. Details include a description of the closed-loop plant and control design methodology, including sizing and parameterization, base and alternative (Guideline 36) control logic with software implementation structure, and outline of the simulation experimentation process. The selected control designs are paired with comparable chilled water plant configurations. The models include a chiller, a water-side economizer, and an evaporative cooling tower. The plant provides cooling at 27ºC zone supply air temperature to a data center in Sacramento, CA. The comparative simulation results examined the impacts of a selected control logic detail, and present an example model-based design application. Overall, the simulation results showed a 25% annual and a 18% summer energy use reduction for alternative controls. This shows that simulation-based control logic design performance evaluation can improve energy efficiency and resilience aspects of system controls at large.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emerging Pathways to Upgrade the US Housing Stock: A Review of the Home Energy Upgrade Literature

The residential buildings sector is responsible for about 20% of total US energy use. In order to achieve climate goals, we need ways to reduce carbon emissions and energy use in this sector. In addition, resiliency, electric grid stability, emergency survivability and other energy and building-related issues are becoming increasingly important challenges. New homes in most of the US meet various energy codes and are reasonably energy efficient. However, the vast majority of energy use is from existing homes that were not required to conform to energy performance requirements. It is becoming imperative to reach as many of these existing homes as possible and find ways to improve their energy-related performance. This must be done in such a way that it meets the needs and desires of homeowners and building occupants, as well as those of the contractors and design professionals engaged in doing the upgrades themselves. Energy retrofits of homes started in the 1970’s in response to the energy crisis, however, these retrofits were very limited in scope and relatively few homes were upgraded. Those homes that have been upgraded generally still have much scope for improvement. A huge effort is needed to get to scale to address the energy use in housing. The target population is effectively every home in the country, whether a large suburban single-family home, or a small downtown apartment. In order to provide a framework for analysis and the basis for plans to get to large-scale retrofits of homes, this literature review summarizes the state-of-the art in the US buildings industry. It identifies where more research, engineering, or technology is needed, as well as relevant industry trends, such as electrification, one-stop shop program design and others. It also examines other key topics, such as availability of financing, minimizing household disruption, and engaging home owners and occupants. This literature review builds on a similar review from several years ago (Less and Walker, 2014). The current review focuses on efforts in the intervening years. This literature review is part of a larger DOE study of deep energy upgrades that includes industry surveys and development of cost-stack analyses. For this review, we gathered data not just from the published literature, but also from practitioners in conjunction with other aspects of the larger DOE study. In some cases, we refer to comments from specific individuals or companies, or refer to specific products by name. This is not intended as an endorsement, but rather to provide clarity on sources of information and examples of relevant technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

MLSPICE: Machine Learning based SPICE Modeling Platform for Power Magnetics

Electrical power converters are critical to a wide range of applications ranging from renewable integration to transportation electrification, and can be a key factor determining the size, weight, and efficiency of energy conversion systems. Magnetic components are typically the largest and least efficient components in power electronics. While there have been major strides in the modeling and analysis of power semiconductor devices and circuit simulations, the necessary advances in the design of power magnetics have lagged. In this project, we have transformed the modeling and design of power magnetics with machine learning enabled methods and catalyze simultaneous disruptive improvements for ML-based power electronics design tools. A fully automated open-source machine learning based magnetics modeling platform – the MagNet project - with innovations in full stack have been developed to greatly accelerate the design process and provide new insights to magnetic material and geometry design. The ARPA-E funded MagNet platform contains three major building blocks: 1) a ML-Integrated Data Acquisition System (MIDAS): a highly automated data acquisition testbed which is capable of measuring a large number of magnetic cores with a wide range of electrical circuit excitations; 2) a ML-integrated Core Loss Model (MICLM): a machine-learning trained modeling method for modeling the core loss and saturation effects of magnetic materials for arbitrary excitation waveforms; 3) ML-guided Magnetics SPICE Simulation Tool (PMSPICE): a fully integrated CAD tool which can simulate the magnetics in SPICE. It can help the designers to quickly model the linear and non-linear characteristics of magnetic components and evaluate their behavior in SPICE simulations. The developed MagNet system has fully demonstrated the proposed performance target and has been open sourced to the entire power electronics community to advance the modeling and design of power magnetics from many different angles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayes goes fast: Uncertainty quantification for a covariant energy density functional emulated by the reduced basis method

A covariant energy density functional is calibrated using a principled Bayesian statistical framework informed by experimental binding energies and charge radii of several magic and semi-magic nuclei. The Bayesian sampling required for the calibration is enabled by the emulation of the high-fidelity model through the implementation of a reduced basis method (RBM)—a set of dimensionality reduction techniques that can speed up demanding calculations involving partial differential equations by several orders of magnitude. The RBM emulator we build—using only 100 evaluations of the high-fidelity model—is able to accurately reproduce the model calculations in tens of milliseconds on a personal computer, an increase in speed of nearly a factor of 3,300 when compared to the original solver. Besides the analysis of the posterior distribution of parameters, we present model calculations for masses and radii with properly estimated uncertainties. We also analyze the model correlation between the slope of the symmetry energy L and the neutron skin of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. The straightforward implementation and outstanding performance of the RBM makes it an ideal tool for assisting the nuclear theory community in providing reliable estimates with properly quantified uncertainties of physical observables. Such uncertainty quantification tools will become essential given the expected abundance of data from the recently inaugurated and future experimental and observational facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States

The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.

Langevin, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2021

Short-term apartment-level load forecasting using a modified neural network with selected auto-regressive features

Residential electricity load profiles and their diversity have become increasingly important to realize the benefits of Smart or Transactive Energy Networks (TENs). An important element of TENs will be practical, accurate, and implementable residential load forecasting techniques. While there have been many approaches to short-term load forecasting, few have included forecasting for individual households, partly because the high volatility and idiosyncrasies present in individual household load data can pose significant challenges. In this study, we develop a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory-based neural network with Selected Autoregressive Features (termed a CLSAF model) to improve short-term household electricity load forecasting accuracy by employing three strategies: autoregressive features selection, exogenous features selection, and a “default” state to avoid overfitting at times of high load volatility. We include aggregations of apartments to floor and building level, because utilities may favor transactive approaches that rely on aggregator models, e.g., a cluster of consumers as opposed to an individual. We demonstrate that the CLSAF model, by virtue of its enhanced feature representation and modest computational resources, can accomplish load forecasting in a multi-family residential building across three spatial granularities (individual apartment/household, floor, and building levels), with an accuracy improvement of up to 25% compared to a persistence model. We propose a data screening technique to characterize time-series electricity-load data. This technique is suitable for integration into a TEN ecosystem and allows one to estimate confidence levels of the load forecasts to optimize computational resources and the risks associated with uncertain forecasts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗