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NASA NTRS1994

Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling

This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.

Munson, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Iterative multi-task learning and inference from seismic images

Seismic interpretation aims to extract quantitative and interpretable attributes from a seismic image produced using some migration method to inform characteristics of a subsurface reservoir or target of interest. Current paradigms for computing seismic attributes mostly rely on single-task algorithms. We develop an iterative, multi-task machine learning method to learn and infer multiple attributes from a seismic image. This method is composed of two stages: a multi-task inference stage and a multi-modal, multi-task refinement stage. The basic mechanism of this method is that we train a multi-task inference neural network (NN) to estimate a set of attributes, including a relative geological time (RGT), a denoised higher-resolution (DHR) seismic image, and multiple fault attributes (including probability, dip, and strike), from a low-resolution, noisy seismic image; then we input the inferred attributes to a multi-task refinement NN to enhance the raw inference results iteratively. The two multi-task NNs are trained separately based on synthetic seismic images and associated attributes generated by a geological modeling algorithm. The software we intend to release is a PyTorch implementation of this multi-task learning method for both 2D and 3D cases along with scripts to run the training/validation. The algorithm and software can be a useful tool for automatic seismic interpretation.

Gao, Kai↗

DOE OSTI2022

TbasCO: trait-based comparative ‘omics identifies ecosystem-level and niche-differentiating adaptations of an engineered microbiome

A grand challenge in microbial ecology is disentangling the traits of individual populations within complex communities. Various cultivation-independent approaches have been used to infer traits based on the presence of marker genes. However, marker genes are not linked to traits with complete fidelity, nor do they capture important attributes, such as the timing of gene expression or coordination among traits. To address this, we present an approach for assessing the trait landscape of microbial communities by statistically defining a trait attribute as a shared transcriptional pattern across multiple organisms. Leveraging the KEGG pathway database as a trait library and the Enhanced Biological Phosphorus Removal (EBPR) model microbial ecosystem, we demonstrate that a majority (65%) of traits present in 10 or more genomes have niche-differentiating expression attributes. For example, while many genomes containing high-affinity phosphorus transporter pstABCS display a canonical attribute (e.g. up-regulation under phosphorus starvation), we identified another attribute shared by many genomes where transcription was highest under high phosphorus conditions. Taken together, we provide a novel framework for unravelling the functional dynamics of uncultivated microorganisms by assigning trait-attributes through genome-resolved time-series metatranscriptomics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Topotactic Phase Transformation of Lithiated Spinel to Layered LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2: The Interaction of 3-D and 2-D Li-ion Diffusion

This study investigates the structural evolution of LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 cathode materials for Li-ion batteries as a function of synthesis temperature and its effect on electrochemical performance. It is demonstrated that, as the synthesis temperature increases from 400 to 900 ?C, a gradual topotactic transformation occurs between a lithiated spinel structure, denoted herein as “lithium-excess spinel” LxS-LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 (or LxS-LMNO), and the well-known layered LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 structure prepared at high temperature, HT-LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 (HT-LMNO). The electrochemical capacity of the LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 electrodes follows a parabolic trend with increasing synthesis temperature, which is attributed primarily to the gradual transformation of 3-dimensional (3-D) to 2-dimensional (2-D) diffusion pathways for the Li ions. When synthesized at 400 °C, LxS-LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 electrodes perform well, benefitting from the 3-D network of channels within the LxS structure. By contrast, when prepared at 500-700 °C, LiMn0.5Ni0.5O2 electrodes operate poorly, which is attributed to the formation of locally disordered structural arrangements that impede Li-ion diffusion. Such an increase in local disorder in the mid-temperature synthesis range is attributed to the structural frustration between the lithium-excess spinal and layered end-members. The transformation from the locally disordered to more ordered layered components between 700 °C and 900 °C enhances electrochemical performance. The study opens new avenues for designing next-generation Mn-rich cathode materials by fine-tuning the synthesis conditions as well as the composition and structure of LxS-LMNO electrodes.

energy storage↗

DOE OSTI2026

DOE EV Data Collection - Vehicle Data

Vehicle data consist of electric vehicle performance data collected directly from the vehicle during standard operations. Data were collected using onboard data loggers that were either installed by the project team or preinstalled by the original equipment manufacturer. Data recorded by the data loggers were made accessible via an online web portal or an application programming interface. Different data loggers were used (HEM, ViriCiti, and Geotab), and the method for each vehicle is defined in the vehicle attributes file. Some systems collected data on a “trip-level” basis, in which each row of a table represents a single trip (the period between a key-on and key-off event), whereas other data were collected on a per-day basis, in which each row represents a single day of operation. Data were collected over a range of data collection periods, depending on the project. Data have been anonymized by removing information or decreasing information resolution as necessary so that fleets are not identifiable. Due to the wide range of vehicle types represented and variation in data collection, data parameters and frequencies differ between vehicles and fleets The **Performance Data Daily/Trip Data Dictionaries** contain definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s operations, aggregated at either a daily or trip level. The parameters available will vary from vehicle to vehicle, but every possible parameter will be defined. The **Vehicle Attributes Data Dictionary** contains definitions for each available parameter associated with a vehicle’s physical and functional attributes and fleet context. The **Vehicle Attributes** table contains specific vehicle characteristics, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables. The **Vehicle Data** tables contain the data from each vehicle’s operations, aggregated at either a daily or trip level, coded to an anonymous Vehicle ID. This Vehicle ID can be used as a key between vehicle data and vehicle attribute tables. Data is being uploaded quarterly through 2023 and subject to change until the conclusion of the project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"

This data package contains the associated data and scripts for Nagamoto, E., Ombadi, M., Ciulla, F. et al. Widespread drought-driven declines in streamflows and water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin during 1998-2022. Commun Earth Environ 7, 734 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03890-5. This purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the 21st century drought on water quantity and quality at catchments throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). We used stream flow, water temperature, specific conductance, air temperature, precipitation, and catchment attribute data for over 200 sites in the UCRB, collected from the National Water Information System using Basin3D (Varadharajan, 2023), GAGESII (Falcone, 2010), and the Google Earth Engine. We identified years of severe drought between 1998 and 2022 using the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), then calculated the relative change percentage of the stream flow, water temperature, and specific conductance from drought versus non-drought years. We used the attribute information from GAGESII to investigate what physical traits of catchments are associated streamflow vulnerability (greater relative change) or resilience to drought. We used land cover data from the National Land Cover Database (USGS, 2024) to assess any changes to physical attributes that may not be represented in the static attributes information in GAGESII. To increase data availability, we modeled stream temperature using methods from Willard, 2023. While the study period is water years 1998 to 2022, the raw water quantity and quality data extends to 1950 and the meteorological data extends to 1980. The data and code can be downloaded via the UCRB_drought.zip. Within the zip, the files are organized as follows: - INPUTS: Contains all input data used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb - OUTPUTS: Contains all intermediate data created from UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb as well as final products including the calculated Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) - climatic_variables: The code used to collect meteorologic data from Google Earth Engine - feature_importance: The code used for the catchment attributes analysis - preprocessing: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - pyeto: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb - calculations: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - plotting: Code used in UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impacts.ipynb - README.md - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Preprocessing.ipynb: The code used to prep raw data for the analysis - UCRB_Drought_Workflow_Impact.ipynb: The code which uses the prepped raw data for analysis, and plots all figures - requirements_ucrb-drought_v2.yml: The requirements file to create a virtual environment and Jupyter Lab kernel to run the code The INPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_RAW" folder contains raw data for streamflow, water temperature, and specific conductance in a ".h5" file. The "NLCD_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files with annual land cover percentages for counties within the UCRB. The "MET_RAW" folder contains a ".csv" file with monthly meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the sites in the UCRB which was obtained from code in the climatic_variables folder. The "GAGESII" folder contains ".csv" files with physical catchment attribute variables for catchments across the country. The "WT_LSTM_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated WT (Willard, 2023) and the associated RMSEs. The "Upper_Colorado_River_Basin_Boundary" folder contains geographic data including a shapefile for plotting in the UCRB_Drought_Workflow.ipynb. The "RESERVOIRS_RAW" folder contains ".csv" files for each reservoir in the UCRB with daily reservoir storage. There are also two files in the INPUTS folder that have combined reservoir storage data and reservoir metadata. The OUTPUTS folder is organized into the following major directories and sub-directories. The "RDC_WT_SC_data" folder contains a folder "Water_year" with the associated cleaned data, metadata, and data availability information in ".csv" files, a folder "Median_Relchange" with the relative change comparing drought to non-drought years in ".csv" files, and a folder "Peak95_Min5_Relchange" that has ".csv" files for the relative change in peak (95th %) and minimum (5th %) variables. The "NLCD_data" folder contains the difference in land cover from the beginning to end of the study period and the percentage of the county that is within UCRB bounds can be found in Nagamoto et al (2025)). The "MET_data" folder contains separated monthly air temperature and precipitation data and the calculated PET in ".csv" files. The "SPEI_data" folder contains ".csv" files with calculated SPEI values (one restricted to the study period and the other with information from the entire MET data period). The "Paper_Tables" folder contains two ".csv" files containing site information and data availability and information about the GAGESII trait aggregated categories. The base directory includes the file “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files and the file “dd.csv” for data dictionaries. Scripts for preprocessing, analysis, and figure generation are located in the associated GitHub repository found at [https://github.com/iNAIADS/drought-impacts/tree/develop/UCRB-drought]. UPDATE 1: Title and code file updated to match submitted manuscript 10-15-2025. UPDATE 2: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 3-4-2026. UPDATE 3: Code and data files updated to match revised manuscript 6-7-2026. ** NOTE: DD and FLMD have not been updated yet. UPDATE 4: Added associated Manuscript information and DD and FLMD have been updated. To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX: @misc{nagamoto2025drought, author = {Emily Nagamoto and Fabio Ciulla and Mohammad Ombadi and Jared Willard and Rosemary Carroll and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset: "Widespread Drought-driven Declines in Streamflows and Water quality in the Upper Colorado River Basin (1998-2022)"}, year = {2025}, doi = {10.15485/2551894}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2551894} }

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Arctic Impact Identification with Less Data Using Variable Relationships: An Exploratory Express LDRD project.

Regional impacts from sea ice loss can be challenging to separate from internal climate variability, potentially requiring thousands of ensemble members. East Asian wintertime cooling has been linked to sea ice loss from present day conditions in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with these large ensemble counts. This cooling is theorized to arise from a strengthened Siberian High and East Asian Jet response. The strengthened Siberian High can be detected with one fifth the ensemble members needed for the East Asian wintertime cooling in a single model. We thus hypothesize that leveraging relationships between multiple variables in a conditional pathways-based approach would reduce the number of required ensemble members to conclusively attribute East Asian wintertime cooling to future sea ice concentrations. In all analyzed cases, confidence was increased when evaluating sea ice loss’s responsibility for the joint effects of East Asian cooling, East Asian Jet strengthening, and Siberian High strengthening over just East Asian cooling. However, we were not able to confidently attribute future East Asian wintertime cooling to sea ice loss in a single model. We found that significant intra-ensemble variability within single Earth System Models (ESMs) produced highly uncertain forcing response models upon which attribution results were undermined. We were able to show that ensemble mean seasonally averaged metrics from multiple ESMs greatly improved the accuracy of the forcing response linear models and exposed the necessity of all three steps in the pathway (sea ice area, Siberian High pressure, and East Asian Jet speed) for accurate prediction of East Asian wintertime cooling. Although all three steps were necessary, East Asian wintertime cooling possesses a large dependence on the Siberian High pressure, which weakens the confidence associated with overall strong joint-attribution comparing present day and future scenarios. We believe transitioning the pathway nodes to relative changes between the Siberian High and Aleutian Low as well as between the midlatitude westerlies and subtropical jet in the East Asianj Jet region may be able to produce significant attribution more fully dependent upon all three steps. Ultimately, this research demonstrates the simple extensibility of conditional pathways-based attribution to sea ice loss forcing on the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.

Tokarska, Katarzyna B↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Premature Mortality By Dust and Pollution PM 2.5 Estimated From Aerosol Reanalysis of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposure-response (IER) model to estimate global PM2.5-attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38–4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73–1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35–1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11–0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14–0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04–0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would potentially save additional one million lives. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing aerodynamic size from geometric size in accurately assessing the global health burden of PM 2.5 and particularly for dust. A use of geometric size in diagnosing dust PM 2.5 from the model simulation, a common approach in current health burden assessment, could overestimate the PM 2.5 level in the dust belt by 40–170%, leading to an overestimate of global all-cause mortality by 1 million or 32%.

PM2.5↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring Gradient-Based Multi-directional Controls in GANs

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been widely applied in modeling diverse image distributions. However, despite its impressive applications, the structure of the latent space in GANs largely remains as a black-box, leaving its controllable generation an open problem, especially when spurious correlations between different semantic attributes exist in the image distributions. To address this problem, previous methods typically learn linear directions or individual channels that control semantic attributes in the image space. However, they often suffer from imperfect disentanglement, or are unable to obtain multi-directional controls. Furthermore, in this work, in light of the above challenges, we propose a novel approach that discovers nonlinear controls, which enables multi-directional manipulation as well as effective disentanglement, based on gradient information in the learned GAN latent space. More specifically, we first learn interpolation directions by following the gradients from classification networks trained separately on the attributes, and then navigate the latent space by exclusively controlling channels activated for the target attribute in the learned directions. Empirically, with small training data, our approach is able to gain fine-grained controls over a diverse set of bi-directional and multi-directional attributes, and we showcase its ability to achieve disentanglement significantly better than state-of-the-art methods both qualitatively and quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community detection robustness of graph neural networks

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly widely used for community detection in attributed networks. They combine structural topology with node attributes through message passing and pooling. However, their robustness or lack thereof with respect to different perturbations and targeted attacks in conjunction with community detection tasks is not well understood. To shed light on latent mechanisms behind GNN sensitivity on community detection tasks, we conduct a systematic computational evaluation of six widely adopted GNN architectures graph convolutional network, graph attention network, graph sample and aggregate (GraphSAGE), differentiable pooling (DiffPool), minimum cut pooling (MinCUT), and deep modularity networks (DMoN). The analysis covers three perturbation categories: node attribute manipulations, edge topology distortions, and adversarial attacks. We use element-centric similarity as the evaluation metric on synthetic benchmarks and real-world citation networks. Our findings indicate that supervised GNNs tend to achieve higher baseline accuracy, while unsupervised methods, particularly DMoN, maintain stronger resilience under targeted and adversarial perturbations. Furthermore, robustness appears to be strongly influenced by community strength, with well-defined communities reducing performance loss. Across all models, node attribute perturbations associated with targeted edge deletions and shifts in attribute distributions tend to cause the largest degradation in community recovery. These findings highlight important trade-offs between accuracy and robustness in GNN-based community detection and offer insights into selecting architectures resilient to noise and adversarial attacks.

Goel, Jaidev [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydropower Geotechnical Foundations: Current Practice and Innovation Opportunities for Low-Head Applications

Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to Hydropower is a renewable energy resource that produces electricity from flowing water under pressure. Engineered hydropower structures, such as dams, are used to create a hydraulic head, enabling a turbinegenerator unit to convert pressurized flow into electricity. While hydropower has been a source of renewable energy since antiquity, new development in the United States has slowed in recent decades. Based on recent resource assessments, the largest opportunity to expand hydropower in the United States is from new stream-reach development (i.e., new hydropower development along stream-reaches that do not currently have hydroelectric facilities or other forms of infrastructure, such as dams). Roughly 75% of identified new stream-reach development potential is from low-head sites (less than 30 ft of head), which typically suffer from smaller power densities and higher normalized costs, given economies of scale. Hydropower developers and other stakeholders are thus interested in strategies to reduce initial capital costs while practicing sustainable development to maximize environmental compatibility with minimal disruption to natural aquatic life, sediment, and water flows. Historically, civil works have represented a significant cost driver for new hydropower development, with the foundation system representing a major cost component and source of uncertainty. The foundation system is the collection of engineered structural features (e.g. cutoff trenches, walls, grouting, anchors) constructed at or below the preconstruction ground surface that interfaces between the overlying structures (superstructures) and the bed material below (subsurface). Development of a hydropower foundation system must consider the various characteristics of the surrounding stream environment and subsurface while adhering to the engineering requirements of the superstructure that it supports. The care of water, excavation, and other construction activities are important features of foundation design and construction. The design and construction cost of the foundation system is largely dependent on the site geology and riverbed composition and is influenced by the level of geotechnical assessment required and conducted. Thus, a hydropower facility’s geotechnical foundation is often highly site-specific, with proper site selection and assessment being important to project success. The foundation system is designed to provide structural stability (of the foundation and dam), limit seepage, ensure public safety, and maintain functionality for the project life, during both construction and facility operations. Inadequate foundation or dam design can result in dam failure and the uncontrolled release of significant volumes of water, which could cause a high number of casualties and extensive property damage downstream of the failure. According to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, approximately 30% of all historical dam failures in the United States are attributed to foundation or abutment defects, and another 20% are attributed to piping or seepage through the embankment, foundation, or abutment. To ameliorate these safety considerations, foundations often require massive amounts of construction material (e.g., grout, concrete, engineered dam fill) and long construction times. Foundation design also requires significant analysis prior to construction because the initial in-stream and abutment subsurface conditions are site-specific, and sufficient data for them often are lacking. Current practice requires on-site assessment, using expensive drilling and invasive and non-invasive investigation methods, to determine the expected cost of foundation material and treatment. Additionally, foundation construction often requires site dewatering (and other care of water activities), which involves constructing temporary diversion structures upstream and often downstream, called cofferdams, and water diversion systems that route water around the construction site. Cofferdams and water diversion systems can drastically increase construction costs and contribute to environmental disruption, including modification of flow patterns and benthic habitats. Given the technical, economic, and environmental challenges associated with hydropower foundations, opportunities exist to improve the current state of practice and to develop new and innovative solutions to challenges frequently encountered with traditional approaches. With this understanding, it is critically important to understand and document the current state of practice for hydropower geotechnical foundations, identify key challenges, and define opportunities for innovative solutions. To this end, this report documents the current state of practice across the three main phases of geotechnical foundation development: (1) geotechnical site assessment, (2) design, and (3) construction for hydropower systems. It also describes the major challenges with conventional approaches and identifies opportunities for innovation to reduce hydropower foundations costs, timelines, and risks. Key takeaways from this report include the following: Approximately 80% of available low-head sites are expected to have foundations on soil beds rather than rock beds, suggesting that rockfill and earthfill dams may be the most cost-effective conventional dam type for new projects.; Geotechnical and geologic investigation activities are time-consuming and expensive but are essential to define the parameters and criteria needed for foundation design.; Certain riverbed soil and bedrock types present significant technical challenges or require expensive foundation construction, which can prove financially prohibitive for low-head project development.; Modular hydropower design and prefabricated modular foundations represent a promising but unproven paradigm for new hydropower development. Design and construction approaches using optimized and highly repeatable, reliable components would benefit project cost, time, and risk but require additional research and development.; Temporary construction features for foundations, including cofferdams, water diversion, and water control systems, can prove costly and have inherent construction risk.; For economically viable development, hydropower geotechnical foundations should be limited to 4 to 15% of the project’s total initial capital costs. Many proposed projects have experienced cost overruns attributable to foundation difficulties or surprises during construction. These overruns may have been due to inadequate investigations, lack of adequate engineering effort to tailor the structures to site geology and topography, and/or contractual terms, among other considerations.; Challenges for hydropower foundations and opportunities for innovative technology solutions are identified in the following areas (consistent with the three main phases of foundation development): Geotechnical site assessment, Foundation design and materials, Construction methods and technology. Ultimately, this report aims to provide information about geotechnical foundations for low-head hydropower and to motivate transformative technologies to support hydropower growth.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discovering Hidden Geothermal Signatures using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Discovering hidden geothermal resources is a very challenging task. It requires the mining of large datasets, including various diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) typically relies on subject-matter expertise to analyze site or regional data to estimate geothermal conditions and prospectivity. Here, we demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset of Southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. However, most of these systems are poorly characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative studies. This study aims to discover hidden patterns and relationships in the SWNM geothermal dataset to better understand regional hydrothermal conditions. This is achieved by applying an unsupervised machine learning algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden (latent) signatures characterizing datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. NMFk successfully finds data patterns and identifies the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures with the four physiographic provinces in SWNM (Colorado Plateau, Volcanic Field, Basin and Range, and the Rio Grande rift). The algorithm identified up to 5 hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in different provinces. Also, the algorithm identifies two medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in SWNM that require further exploration for geothermal resource development. Based on our analyses, 12 of the attributes are important to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems, and the remaining six attributes are critical to characterize low-temperature hydrothermal systems. Based on the obtained results, we identify potential physiographic provinces for further exploration to characterize them as geothermal resources. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projected Urban Morphology of the Los Angeles Area by the Year 2100

This dataset provides projections of urban building morphologies for the Los Angeles urban area at 30-meter spatial resolution. It contains 192 raster files that detail two primary building attributes: building footprint fractions (ranging from 0 to 1) and average building heights (ranging from 0 to 75 meters). The projections account for a wide range of future pathways, covering two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP3 and SSP5), two population scenarios, two developed land intensification scenarios, and four distinct levels of intensification. The dataset was created using dual Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) trained on 2015 land cover and building properties from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and Model America datasets. Supporting information on the dataset has been described in the LAUrbanAreaMorphologyProjections2100_README.txt file.

Pandey, Bhartendu↗

NASA NTRS1988

The 2.5-12 micrometers spectrum of comet Halley from the IKS-VEGA experiment

The infrared instrument IKS flown on board the VEGA space probes was designed for the detection of emission bands of parent molecules, and for a measurement of the size and temperature of the thermal emitting nuclear region. The instrument had three channels with cooled detectors: an "imaging channel" designed to modulate the signal of the nucleus and two spectroscopic channels operating at 2.5-5 and 6-12 micrometers, respectively, equipped with circular variable filters of resolving power approximately 50. This paper presents and discusses the results from the spectral channels. On VEGA 1, usable spectra were obtained at distances D from the comet nucleus ranging from 250,000 to 40,000 km corresponding to fields of view 4000 and 700 km in diameter, respectively. The important internal background signal caused by the instrument itself, which could not be cooled, had to be eliminated. Since no sky chopping was performed, we obtain difference spectra between the current spectrum and a reference spectrum with little or no cometary signal taken at the beginning of the observing sequence (D approximately 200,000 km). Final discrimination between cometary signal and instrumental background is achieved using their different time evolution, since the instrumental background is proportional to the slow temperature drift of the instrument, and the cometary signal due to parent molecules or dust grains is expected to vary in first order as D-1. The 2.5-5 micrometers IKS spectra definitely show strong narrow signals at 2.7 and 4.25 micrometers, attributed to the nu 3 vibrational bands of H2O and CO2, respectively, and a broader signal in the region 3.2-3.5 micrometers, which may be attributed to CH-bearing molecules. All these signals present the expected D-1 intensity variation. Weaker emission features at 3.6 and 4.7 micrometers could correspond to the nu 1 and nu 5 bands of H2CO and the (1 - 0) band of CO, respectively. Molecular production rates are derived from the observed emissions, assuming that they are due to resonance fluorescence excited by the Sun's infrared radiation. For the strong bands of H2O and CO2, the rovibrational lines are optically thick, and radiative transfer is taken into account. We derive production rates, at the moment of the VEGA 1 flyby, of approximately 10(30) sec-1 for H2O, approximately 2.7 x 10(28) sec-1 for CO2, approximately 5 x 10(28) sec-1 for CO, and 4 x 10(28) sec-1 for H2CO, if attributions to CO and H2CO are correct. The production rate of carbon atoms in CH-bearing molecules is approximately 9 x 10(29) sec-1 assuming fluorescence of molecules in the gas phase, but could be much less if the 3.2-3.5 micrometers emission is attributed to C-H stretch in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons or small organic grains. In addition, marginal features are present at 4.85 and 4.45 micrometers, tentatively attributed to OCS and molecules with the CN group, respectively. Broad absorption at 2.8-3.0 micrometers, as well as a narrow emission at 3.15 micrometers, which follow well the D-1 intensity variation, might be due to water ice. Emission at 2.8 micrometers is also possibly present, and might be due to OH created in vibrationally excited states after water photodissociation. The 6-12 micrometers spectrum does not show any molecular emission, nor emission in the 7.5-micrometers region. The spectrum is dominated by silicate emission showing a double structure with maxima at 9.0 and 11.2 micrometers, which suggests the presence of olivine.

NASA Discipline Number 52-10↗

NASA NTRS2009

Influence Diagram Use With Respect to Technology Planning and Investment

Influence diagrams are relatively simple, but powerful, tools for assessing the impact of choices or resource allocations on goals or requirements. They are very general and can be used on a wide range of problems. They can be used for any problem that has defined goals, a set of factors that influence the goals or the other factors, and a set of inputs. Influence diagrams show the relationship among a set of results and the attributes that influence them and the inputs that influence the attributes. If the results are goals or requirements of a program, then the influence diagram can be used to examine how the requirements are affected by changes to technology investment. This paper uses an example to show how to construct and interpret influence diagrams, how to assign weights to the inputs and attributes, how to assign weights to the transfer functions (influences), and how to calculate the resulting influences of the inputs on the results. A study is also presented as an example of how using influence diagrams can help in technology planning and investment. The Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) used this technique to examine the impact of R&D spending on the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a space transportation system. The question addressed was the effect on the recurring and the non-recurring portions of LCC of the proportion of R&D resources spent to impact technology objectives versus the proportion spent to impact operational dependability objectives. The goals, attributes, and the inputs were established. All of the linkages (influences) were determined. The weighting of each of the attributes and each of the linkages was determined. Finally the inputs were varied and the impacts on the LCC determined and are presented. The paper discusses how each of these was accomplished both for credibility and as an example for future studies using influence diagrams for technology planning and investment planning.

Levack, Daniel J. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A simplified integrated framework for predicting the economic impacts of feedstock variations in a catalytic fast pyrolysis conversion process

Feedstock attributes of lignocellulosic biomass, such as particle size, compositional makeup, and moisture content, can vary substantially even within pre-processed materials and have a significant effect on conversion in fast pyrolysis-based processes. However, the economic impacts of these attributes are not well understood. To address this, biomass deconstruction phenomena captured with a versatile particle-scale simulation were linked to techno-economic impacts via reduced-order models. Parametric analysis of the particle-scale model, which was validated using literature data, was used in combination with multiple linear regression models to develop correlations between feedstock attributes and yields of pyrolysis oil, gas, and char. Yields were then correlated with the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) using a techno-economic model, bridging the gap between physics-based biomass conversion simulations and predictions of MFSP for a catalytic fast-pyrolysis process. Empirical correlations derived from the literature regarding the impact of mineral matter (ash) on oil yield were also considered. The model correlations deployed in the integrated framework capture the impacts of variation in feedstock attributes on the MFSP. Variations in ash were shown to have the biggest impact, varying MFSP by -13%/+22% due to catalytic effects and lower relative amounts of convertible lignocellulosic material. It was also found that, if ash can be controlled to low levels, the increased extractives in forest residues can help compensate for some yield losses associated with increased ash. As a result, other inputs considered (particle size, moisture content, and reactor temperature) had relatively negligible effects on process economics within the ranges analyzed considering particle-scale effects alone.

BIOMASS FUELS↗