SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of −7.4 % to −6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to −6.7 % to −5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectral Data Fusion From Handheld Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Analyzers for Improved Detection of Cerium in a Simulated Dispersal Accident

Here, this work implements a mid-level data fusion methodology on spectral data from handheld X-ray fluorescence and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy analyzers to quantify plutonium surrogate (CeO 2 ) contamination in soil samples for the first time. Spectral data from each analyzer were used independently to train supervised machine learning regressions to predict Ce concentration. Fused features from both data sets were then used to train the same models, comparing prediction performance by evaluating model precision and sensitivity. Fusing principal component scores from the two sensors yielded an order of magnitude improvement in precision and sensitivity of predictions made with an artificial neural network, compared to predictions made by models trained on independent sensor data. As a result, a boosted ensemble trained on the fused spectral features yielded an ideal predictor with root-mean-squared error on the order of 10 –6 and calculated limit of detection order 10 –5 wt %.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optical interference effect in strong-field electronic coherence spectroscopy

Here, we investigate strong-field-induced electronic coherences in argon and molecular nitrogen ions created by high-intensity, few-cycle infrared laser pulses. This is a step toward the long-sought goal of strong-field coherent control in molecular chemistry. We employ high-intensity, few-cycle infrared laser pulses in a pump-probe setup to investigate a recent prediction that electronic coherences in nitrogen molecules change the ion yields versus pump-probe delay. [Yuen et al., Phys. Rev. A 109, L011101 (2024)]. The predicted coherence signals in molecular nitrogen could not be resolved above the optical interference of the pump and probe pulses; a simultaneous measurement clearly resolved the induced cation fine-structure coherence in strong-field-ionized argon. The results of our comparison with simulations suggest that optical interference effects manifest differently in each ionic species and must be carefully accounted for when interpreting experimental data. We find that nonsequential double ionization in the low-intensity region of the focal volume can reduce the visibility of coherence generated by two-pulse sequential ionization, and we quantify the importance of pulse shape and spectral characteristics for isolating the desired coherence signals.

charge migration↗

DOE OSTI2022

CFD-DEM Modeling of Autothermal Pyrolysis of Corn Stover with a Coupled Particle- and Reactor-Scale Framework

Autothermal operation of fast pyrolysis is an efficient process-intensification technique wherein exothermic oxidation reactions are used to overcome the heat-transfer bottleneck of conventional pyrolysis. The development of accurate, reliable modeling toolsets is imperative to generating a deeper understanding of biomass autothermal pyrolysis systems to support scale-up and industrial deployment. This modeling effort describes the development of single-particle and reactor models which incorporate detailed reaction schemes and simultaneous exothermic oxidation reactions. The particle-scale model was parameterized for corn stover feedstock with particle morphology, density, ash content, and biopolymer composition, all of which impact the emergent conversion characteristics during pyrolysis. Results were then used to parameterize a reactor-scale autothermal pyrolysis model, which was developed using a coarse-grained computational fluid dynamic-discrete element method. The simulation results compared well with experimental results, with the predicted bio-oil, light gas, and biochar yield within 3.0 wt% of the experimental yields. Further analyses were performed to test the influence of equivalence ratio, biomass injection position, and particle size distribution on autothermal pyrolysis. The analysis of the physio-chemical properties of the fluid and solid phase inside the reactor and at the reactor outlet help reveal important process interactions of autothermal pyrolysis.

BIOMASS FUELS,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND AN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-physics modeling of tungsten collector probe samples during the WEST C4 He campaign

Abstract We describe the results of a multi-scale, multi-physics modeling assessment of SOLPS-ITER, hPIC2, RustBCA and Xolotl, in which five single-crystal tungsten (W) samples were placed in a reciprocating collector probe and exposed to helium (He) plasma in the WEST fusion device. In our models, we considered a pure (100 %) He plasma, as well as one with oxygen (O) present (95% He 5% O) corresponding to the impurity concentration estimated during the C4 He campaign in WEST. Our SOLPS simulations approximately match experimental reciprocating Langmuir probe plasma measurements of plasma density and temperature. Using these plasma parameters as input, hPIC2 and RustBCA predict that the presence of oxygen impurities lead to a 15%–20% decrease in ion and heat fluxes to the surface, and an order of magnitude higher sputtering yields (compared with a pure He plasma). Xolotl predictions for the response of tungsten to plasma surface interactions (PSIs) agree with experimental LAMS analysis, and indicate large near-surface He concentrations, which quickly decay with depth. Our model also shows an increasing role of erosion—in removing the near-surface He—with time. Overall, slightly higher retention is predicted for tungsten exposed to a pure He plasma, with the largest differences in the near-surface gas content caused by the large oxygen-induced erosion. This highlights the important role that impurities play in PSI. Therefore, future work will focus on providing a fully self-consistent description of oxygen (and oxides, etc.) in our models, through multi-species implementation in GITR and inclusion of oxygen and tungsten oxide formation in Xolotl.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Focused ion beam milling of polycrystalline diamond

Focused ion beam (FIB) technology has a large potential for precise milling of ultrahard materials such as diamond. However, studies of the sputtering of diamond with ion species and energies relevant to the FIB technology are scarce. Here, we report a systematic study of the sputtering of polycrystalline diamond surfaces with ion beams in a wide range of ion energies (2 - 30 keV), incident beam angles (0 - 80°), and ion masses (N, O, Ar, and Xe). Results show that the sputter yield is relatively insensitive to ion energy but strongly depends on the ion species and incident beam angles. Bombardment with O ions results in sputter yields that are significantly larger than ballistic predictions due to chemical etching effects. Characteristic surface ripples develop for oblique beam incidence angle irradiation. The critical beam tilt angle for the onset of ripple formation and the wavelength of the ripples depend on ion species and energies. Ripples appear to suppress ion reflection at high beam tilt angles and, hence, a peak in the sputter yield angular dependence. In conclusion, these results have direct implications for the development of process parameter maps for high-precision ion-beam milling of diamond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the Cetane Number, Sooting Tendency, and Energy Density of Terpene Fuel Additives

Abstract Discovering renewable fuels and fuel additives is paramount in reducing carbon emissions from internal combustion engines. Terpenes, a group of compounds that can be synthesized from plant matter and microorganisms, have gained significant interest in recent years as promising candidates for fuels/additives. Terpenes are a diverse class of compounds that contain rings and methyl branches, resulting in high energy densities and optimal cold weather behavior. Their variation in bond order, carbon chains, and functional groups lead to varying degrees of soot formation and performance in existing engines. The present work leverages predictive models, namely artificial neural networks, to predict the cetane number (CN), sooting tendency (quantified with yield sooting index, YSI), and energy density (quantified with lower heating value, LHV) of terpenes and hydrogenated terpenes whose sooting propensities were previously determined through experimental means. Predicted sooting propensities of these terpenes are compared with experimental values, and predicted cetane numbers and energy densities are used to comment on the compounds’ ability to act as fuels/additives. Expected prediction errors for CN, YSI, and LHV, defined by blind test set median absolute error, are within 5.56 cetane units, 3.63 yield sooting index units, and 0.77 MJ/kg respectively. Additionally, the present work investigates a variety of correlation/dependence metrics for property-property relationships, furthering our understanding of how combustion-relevant properties are related.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Effects of Herbarium Specimen Characteristics on Short-Read NGS Sequencing Success in Nearly 8000 Specimens: Old, Degraded Samples Have Lower DNA Yields but Consistent Sequencing Success

Phylogenetic datasets are now commonly generated using short-read sequencing technologies unhampered by degraded DNA, such as that often extracted from herbarium specimens. The compatibility of these methods with herbarium specimens has precipitated an increase in broad sampling of herbarium specimens for inclusion in phylogenetic studies. Understanding which sample characteristics are predictive of sequencing success can guide researchers in the selection of tissues and specimens most likely to yield good results. Multiple recent studies have considered the relationship between sample characteristics and DNA yield and sequence capture success. Here we report an analysis of the relationship between sample characteristics and sequencing success for nearly 8,000 herbarium specimens. This study, the largest of its kind, is also the first to include a measure of specimen quality (“greenness”) as a predictor of DNA sequencing success. We found that taxonomic group and source herbarium are strong predictors of both DNA yield and sequencing success and that the most important specimen characteristics for predicting success differ for DNA yield and sequencing: greenness was the strongest predictor of DNA yield, and age was the strongest predictor of proportion-on-target reads recovered. Surprisingly, the relationship between age and proportion-on-target reads is the inverse of expectations; older specimens performed slightly better in our capture-based protocols. We also found that DNA yield itself is not a strong predictor of sequencing success. Most literature on DNA sequencing from herbarium specimens considers specimen selection for optimal DNA extraction success, which we find to be an inappropriate metric for predicting success using next-generation sequencing technologies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Variation in morpho-physiological and metabolic responses to low nitrogen stress across the sorghum association panel

Abstract Background Access to biologically available nitrogen is a key constraint on plant growth in both natural and agricultural settings. Variation in tolerance to nitrogen deficit stress and productivity in nitrogen limited conditions exists both within and between plant species. However, our understanding of changes in different phenotypes under long term low nitrogen stress and their impact on important agronomic traits, such as yield, is still limited. Results Here we quantified variation in the metabolic, physiological, and morphological responses of a sorghum association panel assembled to represent global genetic diversity to long term, nitrogen deficit stress and the relationship of these responses to grain yield under both conditions. Grain yield exhibits substantial genotype by environment interaction while many other morphological and physiological traits exhibited consistent responses to nitrogen stress across the population. Large scale nontargeted metabolic profiling for a subset of lines in both conditions identified a range of metabolic responses to long term nitrogen deficit stress. Several metabolites were associated with yield under high and low nitrogen conditions. Conclusion Our results highlight that grain yield in sorghum, unlike many morpho-physiological traits, exhibits substantial variability of genotype specific responses to long term low severity nitrogen deficit stress. Metabolic response to long term nitrogen stress shown higher proportion of variability explained by genotype specific responses than did morpho-pysiological traits and several metabolites were correlated with yield. This suggest, that it might be possible to build predictive models using metabolite abundance to estimate which sorghum genotypes will exhibit greater or lesser decreases in yield in response to nitrogen deficit, however further research needs to be done to evaluate such model.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Guided search for desired functional responses via Bayesian optimization of generative model: Hysteresis loop shape engineering in ferroelectrics

Advances in theoretical modeling across multiple disciplines have yielded generative models capable of high veracity in predicting macroscopic functional responses of materials emerging as a result of complex non-local interactions. Correspondingly, of interest is the inverse problem of finding the model parameter that will yield desired macroscopic responses, such as stress–strain curves, ferroelectric hysteresis loops, etc. Here, we suggest and implement Gaussian process based methods that allow to effectively sample the degenerate parameter space of a complex non-local model to output regions of parameter space which yield desired functionalities. In this work, we discuss the specific adaptation of the acquisition function and sampling function to make the process efficient and balance the efficient exploration of parameter space for multiple possible minima and exploitation to densely sample the regions of interest where target behaviors are optimized. Additionally, this approach is illustrated via the hysteresis loop engineering in ferroelectric materials but can be adapted to other functionalities and generative models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rheology of dense fiber suspensions: Origin of yield stress, shear thinning, and normal stress differences

We explain the origins of yield stress, shear thinning, and normal stress differences in rigid fiber suspensions. We investigate the interplay between the hydrodynamic, noncontact attractive and repulsive, and interfiber contact interactions. The shear-thinning viscosity and finite yield stress obtained from the Immerse Boundary Method simulations are in quantitative agreement with experiential results from the literature. In this study, we show that attractive interactions result in yield stress and shear thinning rheology in the suspensions of rigid fibers. This is an important finding, given the ongoing discussion regarding the origin of the yield stress for suspensions of fibers. Finally, the ability of the proposed model to quantitatively predict the rheology is not limited to only shear thinning and yield stress but also extends to normal stresses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distances to Prompt Effects for a Nuclear Device

In 2010, nuclear weapon effects experts at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were asked to provide a quick reference document containing estimated prompt nuclear effects. This report is an update to the 2010 document that includes updated model assumptions. This report addresses only the prompt effects associated with a nuclear detonation (e.g., blast, thermal fluence, and prompt ionizing radiation). The potential medium- and longer-term health effects associated with nuclear fallout are not considered in this report because, in part, of the impracticality of making generic estimates given the high dependency of fallout predictions on the local meteorological conditions at the time of the event. The results included in this report also do not consider the urban environment (e.g., shielding by or collapse of structures) which may affect the extent of prompt effects. It is important to note that any operational recommendations made using the estimates in this report are limited by the generic assumptions considered in the analysis and should not replace analyses made for a specific scenario/device. Furthermore, nuclear effects experts (John Hogan, SNL, and Byron Ristvet, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)) have indicated that the accuracy of effects predictions below 0.5 kilotons (kT) or 500 tons nuclear yield have greater uncertainty because of the limited data available for the prompt effects in this regime. The Specialized Hazard Assessment Response Capability (SHARC) effects prediction tool was used for these analyses. Specifically, the NUKE model within SHARC 2021 Version 10.2 was used. NUKE models only the prompt effects following a nuclear detonation. The algorithms for predicting range-to-output data contained within the NUKE model are primarily based on nuclear test effects data. Probits have been derived from nuclear test data and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) protective action guides. Probits relate the probability of a hazard (e.g., fatality or injury) caused by a given insult (e.g., overpressure, thermal fluence, dose level). Several probits have been built into SHARC to determine the fatality and injury associated with a given level of insult. Some of these probits differ with varying yield. Such probits were used to develop the tables and plots in this report.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Feedstock to Function (F2F) v1

The Feedstock to Function (F2F) tool was designed to help scientists and companies explore viable biofuels and bioproducts early in the R&D cycle to support more productive experimentation, while reducing early-stage exploration from months/years to days/weeks (feedstock-to-function.lbl.gov). The tool focuses on using machine learning to predict biomass-derived molecule properties, while evaluating the cost, benefits, and risks of promising molecules for sustainable aviation fuels. The tool successfully predicts (within 15% of experimental values) high-throughput aviation properties for over 10,000 molecules while enabling users to explore new possibilities and opportunities rapidly and effortlessly. It also links to lightweight life-cycle analysis and techno-economic tools for cost and emissions analyses. Predicted molecule properties include melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and heat of combustion. To date, F2F is more expansive and outperforms several other molecule property prediction models while enabling users (scientists, companies, and policy makers) to explore new possibilities and opportunities rapidly and effortlessly. F2F provides the foundation for developing an adaptive computational tool that predicts properties, cost, benefits, and risk of promising new and uncertified alternative jet fuel pathways and their blending effects.

Rapp, Vi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking magnetised three-wave coupling for laser backscattering: analytic solutions and kinetic simulations

Understanding magnetised laser–plasma interactions is important for controlling magneto-inertial fusion experiments and developing magnetically assisted radiation and particle sources. For nanosecond pulses at non-relativistic intensities, interactions are dominated by coherent three-wave interactions, whose nonlinear coupling coefficients became known only recently when waves propagate at oblique angles with the magnetic field. In this paper, backscattering coupling coefficients predicted by warm-fluid theory are benchmarked using particle-in-cell simulations in one spatial dimension, and excellent agreements are found for a wide range of plasma temperatures, magnetic field strengths and laser propagation angles, when the interactions are mediated by electron-dominant hybrid waves. Systematic comparisons between theory and simulations are made possible by a rigorous protocol. On the theory side, the initial boundary value problem of linearised three-wave equations is solved, and the transient-time solutions allow the effects of growth and damping to be distinguished. On the simulation side, parameters are carefully chosen and calibration runs are performed to ensure that comparisons are well controlled. Fitting simulation data to analytical solutions yields numerical growth rates that match theory predictions within error bars. Although warm-fluid theory is found to be valid for a wide parameter range, genuine kinetic effects have also been observed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatially and temporally resolved plasma parameter estimations of laser heated MagLIF relevant gas pipes at NIF

The ability to control laser pre-heat is an integral part of the inertial confinement fusion concept known as Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion. This process is studied at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) where 4 of the 192 laser beams are propagated through a 1-cm long gas cell where they deposit >20 kJ of energy into the gaseous fuel via inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. This process ionizes the gas, producing a plasma that follows behind the laser front and expands over the radius of the cell. Emission from this plasma, as viewed by a gated x-ray detector, can be used to build spatially and temporally resolved estimations of the pre-heat plasma's density and temperature profiles. This can then be used to estimate the plasma pressure, internal energy, and radiation losses. Estimations show the evolution of the plasma in magnetized and unmagnetized gas cells filled with ambient temperature neopentane (C5H12) +1% Ar, as well as unmagnetized cryogenically cooled (32 K) deuterium +1% Ne filled targets. This analysis shows the effects of initial gas-fill density, composition, and axial magnetization on the time-dependent plasma parameters. Previously, these parameters at the NIF had not been experimentally characterized, and these estimations provided a potential new means of testing radiation magneto-hydrodynamic predictive capability models. Results in unmagnetized targets have strong agreement with simulations. However, in targets with a 19 T applied axial magnetic field, this method yields electron temperatures up to 100% hotter than those predicted by HYDRA codes.

Bremsstrahlung↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supernova electron-neutrino interactions with xenon in the nEXO detector

Electron-neutrino charged-current interactions with xenon nuclei were modeled in the nEXO neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay detector (∼5 metric ton, 90% 136 Xe, 10% 134 Xe) to evaluate its sensitivity to supernova neutrinos. Predictions for event rates and detectable signatures were modeled using the Model of Argon Reaction Low Energy Yields (MARLEY) event generator. We find good agreement between MARLEY’s predictions and existing theoretical calculations of the inclusive cross sections at supernova neutrino energies. The interactions modeled by MARLEY were simulated within the nEXO simulation framework and were run through an example reconstruction algorithm to determine the detector’s efficiency for reconstructing these events. The simulated data, incorporating the detector response, were used to study the ability of nEXO to reconstruct the incident electron-neutrino spectrum and these results were extended to a larger xenon detector of the same isotope enrichment. We estimate that nEXO will be able to observe electron-neutrino interactions with xenon from supernovae as far as 5–8 kpc from Earth, while the ability to reconstruct incident electron-neutrino spectrum parameters from observed interactions in nEXO is limited to closer supernovae.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗