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At least 451 records · Page 25

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar-Centered Grid Project Final Technical Report

This final technical Report for the Solar-Centered Grid project examines interactions of barriers to high levels of solar penetration at the Balancing Authority level and explores approaches to solutions to several such barriers. Results of a study to pool ACE variability and responsibility among disparate neighboring BAs are presented, as well as a methodology and results of a study for predicting ACE and frequency deviations in the sub-10-minute timeframe to serve as the underpinning for operational tools for managing fast solar ramps at the BA level. An example of approximate methods for cost-benefit analysis for probabilistic control center tools is presented, followed by a draft guide of best practices for such analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Computation of hypersonic flow fields

The present discussion of the theory, solution methods, and development status of chemically reactive flow CFD codes pertaining to the flow field around a hypersonic vehicle encompasses the formulation of multicomponent viscous equations, grid-generation techniques, and finite-difference algorithms. The Navier-Stokes equations presented focus on such particularities of high speed vehicles as their aerodynamic configuration, lee and wake flow, bow shock, and chemistry and low density effects. Issues for which further development is desirable encompass boundary treatments, grid quality, shock capturing, and the decoupling of chemistry from flow variables.

Li, Chien-Peng↗

A multi-block multigrid method for the solution of the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations for three-dimensional flows

A multi-block multigrid method for the solution of the three-dimensional Euler and Navier-Stokes equations is presented. The basic flow solver is a cell-vertex method which employs central-difference spatial approximations and Runge-Kutta time stepping. The use of local time stepping, implicit residual smoothing, multigrid techniques, and variable-coefficient numerical smoothing results in an efficient and robust scheme. The multi-block strategy places the block loop within the Runge-Kutta loop such that accuracy and convergence are not affected by block boundaries. This has been verified by comparing the results of one- and two-block calculations in which the two-block grid is generated by splitting the one-block grid. Results are presented for both Euler and Navier-Stokes computations of wings and wing-fuselage combinations.

Atkins, H. L.↗

Transformation of two and three-dimensional regions by elliptic systems

A reliable linear system is presented for grid generation in 2-D and 3-D. The method is robust in the sense that convergence is guaranteed but is not as reliable as other nonlinear elliptic methods in generating nonfolding grids. The construction of nonfolding grids depends on having reasonable approximations of cell aspect ratios and an appropriate distribution of grid points on the boundary of the region. Some guidelines are included on approximating the aspect ratios, but little help is offered on setting up the boundary grid other than to say that in 2-D the boundary correspondence should be close to that generated by a conformal mapping. It is assumed that the functions which control the grid distribution depend only on the computational variables and not on the physical variables. Whether this is actually the case depends on how the grid is constructed. In a dynamic adaptive procedure where the grid is constructed in the process of solving a fluid flow problem, the grid is usually updated at fixed iteration counts using the current value of the control function. Since the control function is not being updated during the iteration of the grid equations, the grid construction is a linear procedure. However, in the case of a static adaptive procedure where a trial solution is computed and used to construct an adaptive grid, the control functions may be recomputed at every step of the grid iteration.

Mastin, C. Wayne↗

Coupling of Sph and Finite Element Codes for Multi-Layer Orbital Debris Shield Design

Particle-based hydrodynamics models offer distinct advantages over Eulerian and Lagrangian hydrocodes in particular shock physics applications. Particle models are designed to avoid the mesh distortion and state variable diffusion problems which can hinder the effective use of Lagrangian and Eulerian codes respectively. However conventional particle-in-cell and smooth particle hydrodynamics methods employ particles which are actually moving interpolation points. A new particle-based modeling methodology, termed Hamiltonian particle hydrodynamics, was developed by Fahrenthold and Koo (1997) to provide an alternative, fully Lagrangian, energy-based approach to shock physics simulations. This alternative formulation avoids the tensile and boundary instabilities associated with standard smooth particle hydrodynamics formulations and the diffusive grid- to-particle mapping schemes characteristic of particle-in-cell methods. In the work described herein, the method of Fahrenthold and Koo has been extended, by coupling the aforementioned hydrodynamic particle model to a hexahedral finite element based description of the continuum dynamics. The resulting continuum model retains all of the features (including general contact-impact effects) of Hamiltonian particle hydrodynamics, while in addition accounting for tensile strength, plasticity, and damage effects important in the simulation of hypervelocity impact on orbital debris shielding. A three dimensional, vectorized, and autotasked implementation of the extended particle method described here has been coded for application to orbital debris shielding design. Source code for the pre-processor (PREP), analysis code (EXOS), post-processor (POST), and rezoner (ZONE), have been delivered separately, along with a User's Guide describing installation and application of the software.

Fahrenthold, Eric P.↗

A Correlation-Based Transition Model using Local Variables: Model Formation - Part 1

A new correlation-based transition model has been developed, which is based strictly on local variables. As a result, the transition model is compatible with modern computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches, such as unstructured grids and massive parallel execution. The model is based on two transport equations, one for intermittency and one for the transition onset criteria in terms of momentum thickness Reynolds number. The proposed transport equations do not attempt to model the physics of the transition process (unlike, e.g., turbulence models) but from a framework for the implementation of correlation-based models into general-purpose CFD methods.

Menter, F. R.↗

A Daily Surface Melt Product From Passive Microwave Swath Observations for Arctic Sea Ice Studies

Most passive microwave sea ice data products are produced with daily gridded brightness temperatures. However, a single polar-orbiting passive microwave instrument makes many measurements per day where swaths overlap in the polar regions. These level 1 swath brightness temperature observations can be used to derive information on sub-daily sea ice processes. One such process is the rapid transition of snow and ice between freezing and melting due to diurnal freeze-thaw cycling or brief warming events in the pre-melt season. Here, a new method utilizing the sub-daily variability in swath-to-swath observations is used to produce daily, binary maps of the melting status on Arctic Sea ice using Level 1C brightness temperatures from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I-SSMIS) data record. The resulting data set will enable investigations of the frequency, inter-annual variability, and spatial extent of brief surface melting events occurring in the winter and shoulder seasons outside of the traditional summer melt season.

Angela C. Bliss↗

Parallel-In-Time Multigrid with Adaptive Spatial Coarsening for The Linear Advection and Inviscid Burgers Equations

We apply a multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) algorithm to hyperbolic partial differential equations in one spatial dimension. This study is motivated by the observation that sequential time-stepping is a computational bottleneck when attempting to implement highly concurrent algorithms; thus parallel-in-time methods are desirable. MGRIT adds parallelism by using a hierarchy of successively coarser temporal levels to accelerate the solution on the finest level. In the case of explicit time-stepping, spatial coarsening is a suitable approach to ensure that stability conditions are satisfied on all levels, and it may be useful for implicit time-stepping by producing cheaper multigrid cycles. Unfortunately, uniform spatial coarsening results in extremely slow convergence when the wave speed is near zero, even if only locally. We present an adaptive spatial coarsening strategy that addresses this issue for the variable coefficient linear advection equation and the inviscid Burgers equation using first-order explicit or implicit time-stepping methods. Serial numerical results show this method offers significant improvements over uniform coarsening and is convergent for the inviscid Burgers equation with and without shocks. Parallel scaling tests on up to 128K cores indicate that run-time improvements over serial time-stepping strategies are possible when spatial parallelism alone saturates, and that scalability is robust for oscillatory solutions which change on the scale of the grid spacing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improved Prediction of Cold-Air Pools in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Using a Truly Horizontal Diffusion Scheme for Potential Temperature

The terrain-following vertical coordinate system used by many atmospheric models, including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is prone to errors in regions of complex terrain. These errors stem, in part, from the calculation of horizontal gradients within the diffusion term of the momentum or scalar evolution equations. In WRF, such gradients can be calculated along coordinate surfaces, or using metric terms that help account for grid skewness. However, neither of these options ensures a truly horizontal gradient calculation, especially if a grid cell is skewed enough that the heights of the neighboring grid points used in the calculation fall outside the vertical range of the cell. In this work, an improved scheme that uses Taylor series approximations to vertically interpolate variables to the level necessary for a truly horizontal gradient calculation is implemented in WRF for the diffusion of potential temperature. The scheme is validated using an atmosphere-at-rest configuration, in which spurious flows develop only as a result of numerical errors and can thus be used as a proxy for model performance. Following validation, the method is applied to the simulation of cold-air pools (CAPs), which occur in regions of complex terrain and are characterized by strong near-surface temperature gradients. Using the truly horizontal scheme, idealized simulations demonstrate reduced numerical mixing in a quiescent CAP, and a realistic case study in the Columbia River basin shows a reduction in positive wind speed bias by up to roughly 20% compared to observations from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modifications to Solar Titan-130 Combustion Systems for Efficient, High Turndown Operation

The project team of Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) investigated methods to allow higher efficiency part-load operation of a Solar Titan 130 gas turbine. The objective was to develop a low-emission combustion system capable of sustaining combustion and avoiding lean blowout during high turndown operation, which would allow the gas turbine to operate as efficiently as possible at part load. Currently, electric utility markets are beginning to experience substantial increases in renewable energy generation. Some of these renewable energy sources have highly variable output in an uncontrolled manner. In order to maintain grid stability, there is a need for power plants to ramp up power to the grid rapidly to make up for drops in renewable generation. This is often termed spinning reserve, but the size of this reserve may need to increase as renewable penetration into the electric utility market increases. Small combined heat and power (CHP) power plants provide a promising option for meeting this spinning reserve requirement. In order to operate in spinning reserve while still meeting the heat requirements for the CHP, the gas turbine needs to operate efficiently at very low loads. Efficient, high turndown operations in this engine are limited by the lean flammability limit of the premixed combustion system. This project sought enhance the lean operability range of the Titan 130 combustor. First, the project team participated in a brainstorming activity and ultimately selected two concepts to explore: fuel augmentation with hydrogen (H2) to improve the stability at lean operating conditions and modifications to the fuel nozzle to improve the emissions performance at lean operating conditions. Analytical and laboratory investigations were accomplished by UCI to investigate the efficacy of H2 addition at improving lean blow out (LBO) limits and the resulting emissions. These investigations used a variety of chemical reactor network (CRN) and CFD models, validated against laboratory data, to model the impact of H 2 and inform the experimental efforts accomplished by SwRI and Solar. Ultimately, both the CRN and CFD models yielded generally good agreement with the experimental data below a particular temperature threshold. Atmospheric tests of a full-scale T130 annular combustor were performed at SwRI facilities in San Antonio, Texas, to investigate the use of H 2 addition. For these tests, the T130 combustion system remained largely unchanged; minor modifications were performed to the fuel ducting to allow for the safe use of H 2 . The test ultimately demonstrated that the addition of H 2 to the fuel mixture significantly increased the AFR ratio at which the combustor could operate. This improvement to the LBO limit should allow for less use of compressor bleed and less throttling needed by the inlet guide vanes (IGV). This in turn could result in more efficient operation of the gas turbine at lower load points. The second modification explored in this work was a direct modification to the T130 injector. The project team hypothesized that modifications to the pilot of the T130 injector could provide lower emissions at high turn-down operations. These modifications were manufactured and explored by the team at Solar. High pressure rig tests, originally slated to occur at SwRI, were ultimately accomplished by Solar to maintain overall project budget and mitigate cost growth attributable to supply chain issues and inflation. The pressurized rig tests ultimately showed that the SwRI Project No. 18.24153 - DE-EE0008415 Page 2 Final Technical Report January 24, 2024 modifications did not significantly alter the performance of the combustion system at the high turn-down conditions; both the modified injectors and the baseline configuration exhibited elevated emissions comparted to the full-load operating condition. A final set of studies performed by EPRI investigated the benefit-cost of flexible CHP as well as a grid interconnection study for the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) grid. These studies considered: traditional CHP with no spinning reserve available for on-demand grid support, 50% flexible CHP where 50% of the machine’s capacity is consumed by on-site baseload operations while providing an additional 50% capacity for on-demand grid support, and 70% flexible CHP where 70% of capacity is consumed on-site by baseload operations and 30% is available for on-demand grid support. In all cases, the analyses showed a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than unity implying a positive net present value for all configurations. However, the traditional CHP showed the most economic benefit. These results are sensitive to several factors, many of which are not fully known and may vary over time. Thus site owners must be convinced that taking up the increased costs and risks from flexible CHP would be worth implementing. As the grid in California and across the country transition to incorporate larger renewable energy generation, flexible CHP can provide much needed operating reserves and dispatchability. Alternative fuel options, such as hydrogen blending and biofuels, may also lower carbon intensities of CHP. Flexible CHP should be examined in the evolving market to understand innovative business models, changes market rules and services, and new technologies.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Nonlinear multiobjective and dynamic real-time predictive optimization for optimal operation of baseload power plants under variable renewable energy

Considering the increase of disruptive variable renewable energy penetration into the power grid, this article focuses on the investigation of a multiobjective and dynamic real-time optimization framework to address the cycling of large-scale power plants under renewable penetration. In this framework, a parallelized particle swarm optimization step is first performed to generate feasible initial points. Then, a multiobjective and dynamic real-time optimization formulation generates optimal trajectories. Further, the benefit of predictive capability is investigated for the dynamic component, which introduces the novel nonlinear multiobjective and dynamic real-time predictive optimization approach. Two multiobjective formulations to obtain Pareto front optimal in real time are explored: the modified Tchebycheff-based weighted metric and ϵ-constraint methods. Economic and environmental objectives are considered in this study. A novel topical discussion on the intersection of dynamic real-time optimization with model predictive control is also presented. The developed framework is successfully applied to a baseload coal-fired power plant with postcombustion CO 2 capture. Results indicate that the approach can be deployed for a large-scale system if automatic differentiation, model reduction, and parallelization are adopted to improve computational tractability, with computational improvement up to 120-folds after performing these steps. Finally, market and carbon policies showed an impact on the optimal compromise between the objectives with an additional 63 ton of CO 2 captured under favorable market conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Long duration battery sizing, siting, and operation under wildfire risk using progressive hedging

Battery sizing and siting problems are computationally challenging due to the need to make long-term planning decisions that are cognizant of short-term operational decisions. This paper considers sizing, siting, and operating batteries in a power grid to maximize their benefits, including price arbitrage and load shed mitigation, during both normal operations and periods with high wildfire ignition risk. Here we formulate a multi-scenario optimization problem for long duration battery storage while considering the possibility of load shedding during Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events that de-energize lines to mitigate severe wildfire ignition risk. To enable a computationally scalable solution of this problem with many scenarios of wildfire risk and power injection variability, we develop a customized temporal decomposition method based on a progressive hedging framework. Extending traditional progressive hedging techniques, we consider coupling in both placement variables across all scenarios and state-of-charge variables at temporal boundaries. This enforces consistency across scenarios while enabling parallel computations despite both spatial and temporal coupling. The proposed decomposition facilitates efficient and scalable modeling of a full year of hourly operational decisions to inform the sizing and siting of batteries. With this decomposition, we model a year of hourly operational decisions to inform optimal battery placement for a 240-bus WECC model in under 70 min of wall-clock time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

MARBLES (Multi-scale Adaptively Refined Boltzmann LatticE Solver) [SWR-23-37]

MARBLES (Multi-scale Adaptively Refined Boltzmann LatticE Solver) is an open-source computational fluid dynamics package powered by the lattice Boltzmann equations and built on AMReX. In the lattice Boltzmann method, local collisions between meso-scale fictitious particles drive the governing equations which enables MARBLES to easily simulate flow around complex and/or moving geometry without the generation of a body-conforming mesh. Using AMReX data structures and operations ensures a high level of computational performance and parallel scaling on heterogenous architectures while also naturally supporting locally enhanced grid resolution and fidelity through automatic mesh refinement. New domains and problem definitions are easily specified through an input file with examples and guidance on all options and variables provided in the MARBLES documentation.

Henry de Frahan, Marc↗

Reanalysis procedure for large structural systems

Global-basis-vector approximate reanalysis techniques for use in automated structural optimization schemes are developed and demonstrated. The vibrational response of a modified structure (MS) is estimated by lumping the design variables into a single tracing parameter, applying an operator splitting procedure to express the FEM equations of the MS in terms of the original-structure equations plus correction terms, and reducing the MS equations via a classical Bubnov-Galerkin scheme. The sensitivity of the vibrational response to structural modifications is evaluated, and the relationship between this method and the preconditioned conjugate-gradient method (Noor and Peters, 1988) is explored. Numerical results for linear static and free vibration problems involving beamlike lattices, double-layered hexahedral grids, and structural gridworks are presented in tables and graphs and briefly characterized.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

The space-time solution element method: A new numerical approach for the Navier-Stokes equations

This paper is one of a series of papers describing the development of a new numerical method for the Navier-Stokes equations. Unlike conventional numerical methods, the current method concentrates on the discrete simulation of both the integral and differential forms of the Navier-Stokes equations. Conservation of mass, momentum, and energy in space-time is explicitly provided for through a rigorous enforcement of both the integral and differential forms of the governing conservation laws. Using local polynomial expansions to represent the discrete primitive variables on each cell, fluxes at cell interfaces are evaluated and balanced using exact functional expressions. No interpolation or flux limiters are required. Because of the generality of the current method, it applies equally to the steady and unsteady Navier-Stokes equations. In this paper, we generalize and extend the authors' 2-D, steady state implicit scheme. A general closure methodology is presented so that all terms up through a given order in the local expansions may be retained. The scheme is also extended to nonorthogonal Cartesian grids. Numerous flow fields are computed and results are compared with known solutions. The high accuracy of the scheme is demonstrated through its ability to accurately resolve developing boundary layers on coarse grids. Finally, we discuss applications of the current method to the unsteady Navier-Stokes equations.

Scott, James R.↗

Field Measurement and Analysis of Frequency and RoCoF for Low-Inertia Power Systems

The frequency measurement and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) calculations are important for active power, frequency control, and frequency-related protection in power system operations. With the rapid decrease in inertia under modern power systems, however, multiple power variations introduced by variable renewable energy bring large RoCoF and introduce oscillations in frequency measurements. To shed light on this issue, this article proposes a frequency measurement and RoCoF analysis technology, as well as the sensitivity analysis for the real low-inertia power grid. First, a real-world event in an island power grid is analyzed as an example, and an event numerical model is estimated considering four uncertainties, including event RoCoF, oscillation magnitude, oscillation frequency, and underfrequency load-shedding threshold. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed using the Sobol indices method and quasi-Monte Carlo simulations to identify the dominant uncertainties based on the event model. Here, the dominant uncertainties are compared to provide a guideline for the frequency estimation algorithm selection under different event cases. This algorithm is compared with an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm and gives a 3.41% better RoCoF error rate. Finally, an experiment is conducted using universal grid analyzers to validate the simulation results and the theoretical analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integrating an Ensemble Reward System into an Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for the Economic Dispatch of Small Modular Reactor-Based Energy Systems

Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (NIES) have emerged as a comprehensive solution for navigating the changing energy landscape. They combine nuclear power plants with renewable energy sources, storage systems, and smart grid technologies to optimize energy production, distribution, and consumption across sectors, improving efficiency, reliability, and sustainability while addressing challenges associated with variability. The integration of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) in NIES offers significant benefits over traditional nuclear facilities, although transferring involves overcoming legal and operational barriers, particularly in economic dispatch. This study proposes a novel off-policy Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach with an ensemble reward system to optimize economic dispatch for nuclear-powered generation companies equipped with an SMR, demonstrating superior accuracy and efficiency when compared to conventional methods and emphasizing RL’s potential to improve NIES profitability and sustainability. Finally, the research attempts to demonstrate the viability of implementing the proposed integrated RL approach in spot energy markets to maximize profits for nuclear-driven generation companies, establishing NIES’ profitability over competitors that rely on fossil fuel-based generation units to meet baseload requirements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗