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DOE OSTI2022

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters [Slides]

Sensitivity coefficients of prompt neutron decay constant (α) and effective delayed neutron fraction (β eff ) to Pu-239 nuclear data were calculated using a newly available tool (ACEtk). Uncertainty calculations showed the following trends: (1) The prompt neutron decay constant can be used to reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239(n,f) and (2) the effective delayed neutron fraction can be used to effectively reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239 total fission $\tilde{v}$. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis can be used to determine optimal experiment/detector setup to identify compensating errors in nuclear data. Upcoming work includes investigating other nuclide-reaction pairs and response sensitivities, such as Δ$\rho$, neutron leakage spectra, and reaction rate measurements to constrain nuclear data of interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2023

A multifrequency characterization of the extragalactic hard X-ray sky

Context: Nowadays, we know that the origin of the cosmic X-ray background (CXB) is mainly due to the integrated emission of active galactic nuclei. Therefore, in order to obtain a precise estimate of the contribution of different source classes to the CXB, it is crucial to achieve full characterization of the hard-X ray sky. Aims: We present a multifrequency analysis of all sources listed in the third release of the Palermo Swift-BAT hard X-ray catalog (3PBC) with the goal of (i) identifying and classifying the largest number of sources adopting multifrequency criteria, with particular emphasis on extragalactic populations and (ii) extracting sources belonging to the class of Seyfert galaxies to present here the release of the second version of the Turin-SyCAT. Methods: We outline a classification scheme based on radio, infrared (IR), and optical criteria that allows us to distinguish between unidentified and unclassified hard X-ray sources, as well as to classify those sources belonging to the Galactic and the extragalactic populations. Results: Our revised version of the 3PBC lists 1176 classified, 820 extragalactic, and 356 Galactic sources, as well as 199 unclassified and 218 unidentified sources. According to our analysis, the hard X-ray sky is mainly populated by Seyfert galaxies and blazars. For the blazar population, we report trends between the hard X-ray and the gamma-ray emissions based on the fact that a large fraction of them also have a counterpart detected by the Fermi satellite. These trends are all in agreement with the expectations of inverse Compton models which are widely adopted to explain the blazar broadband emission. For the Seyfert galaxies, we present the second version of the Turin-SyCAT, including a total of 633 Seyfert galaxies, with 282 new sources corresponding to an increase of ~80% with respect to the previous release. Comparing the hard X-ray and the infrared emissions of Seyfert galaxies, we confirm that there is no clear difference between the flux distribution of the infrared-to-hard X-ray flux ratio of Seyfert galaxies Type 1 and Type 2. However, there is a significant trend between the mid-IR flux and hard X-ray flux, confirming previous statistical results in the literature. Conclusions: We provide two catalog tables. The first is the revised version of the 3PBC catalog based on our multifrequency analyses. The second catalog table is a release of the second version of the Turin-SyCAT catalog. Finally, we highlight that extensive soft X-ray data are already available in the form of the Swift archive which can be used to search for potential counterparts of unidentified hard X-ray sources. All these datasets will be reduced and analyzed in a forthcoming analysis to determine the precise position of low-energy counterparts in the 0.5–10 keV energy range for 3PBC sources that can be targets of future optical spectroscopic campaigns; this is necessary to obtain their precise classification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Highlights of this year’s update include: -10.4 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2022, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 61.7 GWAC across 46 states. -94% of all new utility-scale PV capacity added in 2022 uses single-axis tracking. -Median installed project costs declined to $\$1.32$/WAC (or $\$1.07$/WDC) in 2022. -Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 9% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The report explores drivers of this variation. -Utility-scale PV’s LCOE fell to $\$39$/MWh in 2022 ($\$29$/MWh if factoring in the federal investment tax credit, or ITC). -PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but have recently stagnated and even moved slightly higher. Prices from a sample of recent contracts average around $\$20-30$/MWh (levelized) in the West and $\$30-40$/MWh elsewhere in the continental US. -In 2022, solar’s average market value (defined in the report to include only energy and capacity value) rose by 40% to $\$71$/MWh and exceeded average wholesale prices in 4 of the 7 ISOs/RTOs and 11 of 18 other balancing authorities analyzed. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from ~100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -the end of 2022, there were at least 947 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation, 456 GW of which include batteries. For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wind Supply Chain Security: Hardware Enumeration and Analysis

This project, undertaken by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO), focused on the enumeration and analysis of six key devices important to wind technologies. The devices analyzed included Beckhoff Bus Terminal Controllers (BK1120 and BC9000), a Beckhoff Economy Built-in Panel PC (CP6231), an N-Tron Managed Industrial Ethernet Switch (711FX3), a Bachmann M1 Gateway, and a Bachmann Smart Power Plant Controller. Device selection was driven by availability and budget constraints, with several components sourced from existing wind farms and others procured through a co-agreement with another WETO-funded project. The project's primary objective was to create a hardware bill of materials (HBOM) for each device, identifying and documenting all components to assess potential security and supply chain risks. A detailed analysis revealed over 750 unique components across the six devices, with 80% successfully identified and accompanied by datasheets. Notably, Texas Instruments emerged as the leading supplier, providing over 16% of the components, followed by ON Semiconductor at 11.3%, Analog Devices at 5.3%, and Renesas Electronics Corp at 4.1%. Other notable vendors included Toshiba Corporation, iC-Haus Corporation, Atmel, Vishay, and STMicroelectronics. The enumeration process involved thorough documentation of each component, including its designation, quantity, identifiers, pin package, description, vendor, model, and country of origin. This process provided valuable insights into the complexity and diversity of the electronic systems within these wind devices. It also highlighted the distinct separation of components between vendors, suggesting a trend of vendor-specific component usage. Key findings from the project emphasized the importance of broadening the scope of vendor analysis in future research to gain a comprehensive understanding of component distribution and commonality. The identification of vendor-specific component usage patterns offers new avenues for research and underscores the significance of continued investigation in this field. Overall, this project provides critical insights into the component composition of wind devices, aiding in the development of improved supply chain management and component sourcing strategies. The results contribute valuable knowledge to the wind technology sector, laying the groundwork for enhanced security and resilience in wind energy systems.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scientific machine learning benchmarks

Deep learning has transformed the use of machine learning technologies for the analysis of large experimental datasets. In science, such datasets are typically generated by large-scale experimental facilities, and machine learning focuses on the identification of patterns, trends and anomalies to extract meaningful scientific insights from the data. In upcoming experimental facilities, such as the Extreme Photonics Application Centre (EPAC) in the UK or the international Square Kilometre Array (SKA), the rate of data generation and the scale of data volumes will increasingly require the use of more automated data analysis. Furthermore, at present, identifying the most appropriate machine learning algorithm for the analysis of any given scientific dataset is a challenge due to the potential applicability of many different machine learning frameworks, computer architectures and machine learning models. Historically, for modelling and simulation on high-performance computing systems, these issues have been addressed through benchmarking computer applications, algorithms and architectures. Extending such a benchmarking approach and identifying metrics for the application of machine learning methods to open, curated scientific datasets is a new challenge for both scientists and computer scientists. Here, we introduce the concept of machine learning benchmarks for science and review existing approaches. As an example, we describe the SciMLBench suite of scientific machine learning benchmarks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Temporal variabilities of soil carbon dioxide fluxes from cornfield impacted by temperature and precipitation changes through high-frequent measurement and DAYCENT modelling

Soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the field of corn (Zea mays L.) play an important role in global warming. This study investigated temporal variability of soil CO 2 fluxes (R s ) with soil temperature (T s ) and moisture (θ) and built DAYCENT models for predicting future impacts of climate changes on R s using the measured high-frequency data. R s trend was tested by Mann–Kendall and Sen Estimator. Predicted R s s under different climate scenarios were compared using Parallel-line Analysis. Herein, the findings indicated that daily R s exponentially increased with T s constrained by θ. During the θ of 27–31%, there was a strong exponential relationship between R s and T s , but the relationship was weaker for the θ of 38–41% and 22–26%. Soil environmental index (SEI, T s × θ) significantly impacted R s with linear regression R s 0.5 = 0.4599 + 0.002059 × SEI in 2008, 2009 and 2011. At the diurnal scale, there were different trends in R s s and relationships among R s and T s and θ in different years. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and corn yield in 2014–2049 increased with an increase in temperature scenarios, but the R s s significantly increased as temperature rose by 1°C or higher. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and yield reduced with precipitation scenario increase, and the root R s s and yield significantly diminished as precipitation increased by 15 and 30%. Predicted yearly R s from cornfields had a significantly increasing trend. Future research is needed to explore methods for mitigating cornfield R s and evaluating sensitivities of different cropland R s s to temperature changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Solvent-Induced Glass Transition in Polymer Thin Films Using Absorption–Desorption Isotherms

The fundamental thermodynamic and mechanical underpinnings of polymer thin films exposed to solvent vapor are critical for the development of advanced nanolithography and high-performance coatings. This work investigates the solvent− polymer interactions of glassy thin films by using the solvent absorption−desorption isotherms. An analogous relationship to the Flory−Fox equation was observed between solvent−induced glass transition, swelling, Flory−Huggins interaction parameter, and molecular weight. Isothermal swelling measurements revealed that the glass transition trends are more robust in the absorption curve compared to desorption, contrary to previous reports. Excess osmotic pressure analysis of the isotherm provides a measure of the degree of physical aging in thin films annealed below the glass transition. This is further validated in the ordering of block copolymer (BCP) films annealed at low solvent activity. In agreement with the thermal analysis, free-surface plasticization effects become the most prominent below 100 nm. However, solvent annealing is largely dependent on solvent mass transport, as made evident by the strong dependence on solvent viscosity. From these observations, four general types of isotherms are identified that graphically capture distinct solvent−polymer interaction regimes. More broadly, these results inform solvent vapor annealing-induced self-assembly, sequential infiltration synthesis, membrane-based separations, adsorptive processes, and swelling-based responsive materials design.

Hendeniya, Nayanathara [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of an intramolecular hydrogen bond in the redox properties of carboxylic acid naphthoquinones

A bioinspired naphthoquinone model of the quinones in photosynthetic reaction centers but bearing an intramolecular hydrogen-bonded carboxylic acid has been synthesized and characterized electrochemically, spectroscopically, and computationally to provide mechanistic insight into the role of proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) of quinone reduction in photosynthesis. The reduction potential of this construct is 370 mV more positive than the unsubstituted naphthoquinone. In addition to the reversible cyclic voltammetry, infrared spectroelectrochemistry confirms that the naphthoquinone/naphthoquinone radical anion couple is fully reversible. Calculated redox potentials agree with the experimental trends arising from the intramolecular hydrogen bond. Molecular electrostatic potentials illustrate the reversible proton transfer driving forces, and analysis of the computed vibrational spectra supports the possibility of a combination of electron transfer and PCET processes. The significance of PCET, reversibility, and redox potential management relevant to the design of artificial photosynthetic assemblies involving PCET processes is discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gravity Well Commercial Economics Assessment: Potential Revenue and Cost: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

In the Gravity Well Revenue Study, we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical energy-only electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as the location of the storage, on storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. We also investigated the impact of round-trip efficiency on storage revenue. We found that the relationship between storage revenue and round-trip efficiency is nonlinear. The value of improved round-trip efficiency declines as round-trip efficiency increases. In the Gravity Well Future Cost Study, we applied learning curves to predict the future cost trajectory of Gravity Wells (GrWs). Two types of analysis were implemented. The first was a bottom-up analysis that used historical learning rates for cost components, such as motors and gearboxes, and cost categories (e.g., engineering and design, etc.) to determine the learning-by-doing based single-factor learning curve. The single factor learning curve expresses the relationship between the cost of GrW and the number of units deployed (or the cumulative capacity). In the second analysis, we predicted future GrW costs via a top-down approach. This approach accounts for historical cost trends in other renewable energy and storage technologies, which have similarities with GrWs. Using a multifactor learning curve that accounts for both intrinsic (cumulative capacity) and extrinsic (the elasticity in the price of steel) factors, we estimated the future cost of GrWs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Temperature Inversion on the Vertical Distribution of Aerosols

Temperature inversion plays an important role in the accumulation and diffusion of aerosols. In this study, the relationship between temperature inversion and the vertical distribution of aerosols is investigated based on Raman lidar observations taken from January 2010 to September 2015 at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in the Southern Great Plains, USA. First, the diurnal and seasonal variations of the surface-based inversion (SBI) and elevated temperature inversion (EI) are investigated. The results indicate that the occurrence frequency of SBI and EI have different seasonal trends. SBI has the highest frequency in summer, while EI has the highest frequency in winter. The diurnal variation of SBI is obvious, with a higher frequency in nighttime and a lower frequency in daytime. The inversion intensity (ΔT) and inversion depth (ΔZ) of SBI and EI have consistent diurnal and seasonal trends. The effects of SBI and EI on the vertical distribution of aerosols are then analyzed. The mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) below the SBI height shows a clear seasonal variation, which is consistent with the seasonal trends of ΔT and ΔZ. This phenomenon also occurs on the AOD below EI top height. The sensitivity analysis shows that the mean AOD below SBI height or EI top height increases with an increase of the ΔT and ΔZ of SBI (EI). It indicates that ΔT and ΔZ are the key factors affecting the vertical distribution of aerosols. In addition, the variation of AOD below and above EI top height is opposite to that of AOD below and above EI bottom height under different ΔT and ΔZ conditions. The correlation coefficients between ΔT (ΔZ) of EI with AOD in EI were 0.62 (0.65). These results indicate that the space between EI bottom height and EI top height can store aerosols. The larger the ΔZ of EI, the more aerosols are stored. These findings contribute to our understanding of the effect of temperature inversion on the vertical distribution of aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Local-Scale Framework for Techno-Economic Analysis of Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The energy sector is evolving toward increased reliance on renewable energy technologies to meet state, national, and organization decarbonization goals. This trend is creating challenges and opportunities with meeting current and future energy demand under the variable supply conditions that most renewables provide. Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a promising energy carrier that may meet the need for both on-demand and long-duration storage to maintain energy security and resilience. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is a method of storing H 2 in subsurface geological systems, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, salt caverns, saline aquifers, hard rock, and other engineered systems. UHS has the potential to store large quantities of H 2 over time, providing a reliable source of energy while minimizing surface footprints at a lower investment cost compared to surface storage. Earlier work estimated that, if converted and retrofitted, existing underground natural gas storage (UGS) facilities in the U.S. can store approximately 327 TWh, or 9.8 million metric tons, of pure H 2 . However, a shift to pure H 2 would decrease the collective working-gas energy of the UGS facilities by approximately 75% due to physical and chemical differences between natural gas and hydrogen. The same work also suggests that almost 75% of the existing UGS facilities in the U.S. could maintain current energy demand buffering using a blend of only 20% H 2 to 80% natural gas, by volume at surface conditions. If we can take advantage of the suite of mature technologies of existing UGS facilities and natural gas utility systems to accelerate the transition to a hydrogen economy in the U.S., a 20% H 2 blend could lead to a 6-7% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for energy delivered through natural gas utility systems.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking machine learning strategies for phase-field problems

Abstract We present a comprehensive benchmarking framework for evaluating machine-learning approaches applied to phase-field problems. This framework focuses on four key analysis areas crucial for assessing the performance of such approaches in a systematic and structured way. Firstly, interpolation tasks are examined to identify trends in prediction accuracy and accumulation of error over simulation time. Secondly, extrapolation tasks are also evaluated according to the same metrics. Thirdly, the relationship between model performance and data requirements is investigated to understand the impact on predictions and robustness of these approaches. Finally, systematic errors are analyzed to identify specific events or inadvertent rare events triggering high errors. Quantitative metrics evaluating the local and global description of the microstructure evolution, along with other scalar metrics representative of phase-field problems, are used across these four analysis areas. This benchmarking framework provides a path to evaluate the effectiveness and limitations of machine-learning strategies applied to phase-field problems, ultimately facilitating their practical application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving local structural motifs across the phase evolution of zinc titanates with computational x-ray absorption spectroscopy

Resolving the local structure motifs that characterize phase evolution as a function of composition is a key challenge in structure characterization of complex materials. Here, in this study, we combine first-principles simulations and x-ray absorption near-edge structures (XANES) analysis to gain insights into the structure evolution revealed by measurements across a combinatorial zinc titanate thin film, which was grown with smoothly varying composition over a wide range of the Ti:Zn ratio. Specifically, we propose a cluster blind-signal-separation (cBSS) method for XANES spectral analysis based on a library of the structures and spectra of representative local motifs. In addition to motifs from zinc titanate crystals, two types of Ti-defect models constructed in this study are key to the understanding of the structure characteristics in the Zn-rich region. The cBSS method makes use of both spectral clustering of the simulated site-XANES spectra library and the BSS procedure to construct high-fidelity spectral basis functions from an experimental spectral sequence. The method provides a rigorous measure of the spectral sensitivity and basis completeness. The results of the XANES analysis are corroborated with other experimental modalities, including x-ray diffraction and spectroscopic ellipsometry, to validate the cBSS method. The calculated motif weights resulting from fitting the XANES spectra with the cBSS basis probe the atomic structure characteristics of both crystalline and amorphous phases as a function of the Ti/Zn composition. The insights of the local structure motif evolution are pivotal to the understanding of the nonmonotonic trend in the optical gap, which may lead to potential applications through tuning the optical properties of zinc titanate. The workflow of the XANES spectral analysis developed in this work can be generalized to construct the structure-property relationship in a broad material space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

cost models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Carbon ablator areal density at fusion burn: Observations and trends at the National Ignition Facility

For inertial confinement fusion experiments, the pusher is composed of a high-density deuterium tritium cyrogenic fuel layer and an ablator, often made of carbon. In an ideal, no-mix implosion, increasing the areal density of the pusher transfers more pressure to the hot spot and increases the hot spot confinement time. There has been a lack of knowledge about the final compressed state of the ablator for implosions at the National Ignition Facility. 14 MeV fusion neutrons inelastically scattering on the remaining carbon ablator excites a nuclear metastable state that emits a prompt 4.4 MeV gamma ray. The gamma reaction history diagnostic data, when reduced by a new data analysis technique, can isolate and measure the carbon gamma rays, which are proportional to the areal density of the ablator during fusion burn. The trends over many National Ignition Facility campaigns show that the ablator areal density is weakly sensitive to the maximum shell velocity, the cold fuel radius, the ablator mass remaining, or the laser picket intensity. Controlled parameter scans reveal that, for specific campaigns, ablator compression has a strong dependence on laser coast time, high Z dopants, and the laser drive foot duration. Using a model of the compressed ablator density profile reveals that the greatest variation of the ablator areal density comes from its thickness, with highly compressed, thin layers having high areal density values. The compression and thickness of the ablator are other metrics that designers should understand to differentiate the types of capsule degradation and maximize the inertial confinement fusion performance.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hydration of α-UO 3 following storage under controlled conditions of temperature and relative humidity

Changes in chemical speciation of uranium oxides following storage under varied conditions of temperature and relative humidity are valuable for characterizing material provenance. In this study, subsamples of high purity α-UO 3 were stored under four sets of controlled conditions of temperature and relative humidity over several years, and then measured periodically for chemical speciation. Powder X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis and extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy confirm hydration of α-UO 3 to a schoepite-like end product following storage under each of the varied storage conditions, but the species formed during exposure to the lower relative humidity and lower temperature condition follows different trends from those formed under the other three storage conditions (high relative humidity with high or low temperatures, and low relative humidity with a high temperature). Thermogravimetry coupled with XRD analysis was carried out to distinguish desorption pathways of water from the hydrated end products. Density functional theory calculations discern changes in the structure of α-UO 3 following incorporation of 1, 2 or 3 H 2 O molecules or 1, 2 or 3 OH groups into the orthorhombic lattice, revealing differences in lattice constants, U–O bond lengths, and U–U distances. The collective results from this analysis are in contrast to analogous studies that report that U 3 O 8 is oxidized and hydrated in air during storage under high relative humidity conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗