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At least 451 records · Page 25

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Component-to-Optimization Workflow Demonstration

This report aims to demonstrate workflow-generating algorithms for optimizing dispatch across a broad range of Integrated Energy System applications using the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. The optimization is performed at two different time scales. In the coarse time scale, the optimization focuses on a class of energy sources and consumers and aims to find the optimal combinations and flows of energy based on real-time price data information. In the fine time scale, the optimization focuses on a specific thermal energy delivery system and aims to find the optimal setpoints of components in order to meet the energy demands from coarse-time-scale optimizations. In this demonstration, the coarse-scale optimization is implemented using the newly developed Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE), while the fine-scale optimization used Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Thermal equilibrium of collisional non-neutral plasma in a magnetic dipole trap

This paper discusses thermal equilibrium states of single-species plasmas, such as pure electron plasmas and pure positron plasmas, that are confined in a dipole trap. Thermal equilibrium states for such plasmas are routinely realized in the homogeneous magnetic field of Penning–Malmberg traps. We generalize the theory of these states to include inhomogeneous magnetic dipole fields. The approach to thermal equilibrium takes place in two stages with well separated time scales. On the collision time scale, thermal equilibrium is established along each magnetic field line. On the much longer transport time scale, heat conduction and viscosity bring the plasmas on different flux contours into thermal equilibrium, we call this a state of global thermal equilibrium. We present numerical results for local and global thermal equilibria. These results agree with the analytic predictions for charge collections that are large compared with the Debye length. There is, in principle, no limit to the confinement time of a single-species plasma in a global thermal equilibrium state. Experiments with hot electron–ion plasmas performed in the LDX and RT1 devices give us confidence that, in contrast to a Penning–Malmberg trap, a magnetic dipole field can also confine cold quasi-neutral electron–positron pair plasmas on the time scale of the phenomena of interest. Such pair plasmas are assumed to form in the magnetosphere of neutron stars but have so far not been realized in a laboratory. The creation of an electron–positron pair plasma is the main goal of the APEX collaboration.

Steinbrunner, P. (ORCID:0000000317693686)↗

Control of leading-edge vortices on a delta wing

The unsteady flow structure of leading-edge vortices on a delta wing has been investigated using new types of experimental techniques, in order to provide insight into the consequences of various forms of active control. These investigations involve global control of the entire wing and local control applied at crucial locations on or adjacent to the wing. Transient control having long and short time-scales, relative to the convective time-scale C/U(sub infinity), allows substantial modification of the unsteady and time-mean flow structure. Global control at long time-scale involves pitching the wing at rates an order of magnitude lower than the convective time-scale C/U(sub infinity), but at large amplitudes. The functional form of the pitching maneuver exerts a predominant influence on the trajectory of the feeding sheet, the instantaneous vorticity distribution, and the instantaneous location of vortex breakdown. Global control at short time-scales of the order of the inherent frequency of the shear layer separating from the leading-edge and the natural frequency of vortex breakdown shows that 'resonant' response of the excited shear layer-vortex breakdown system is attainable. The spectral content of the induced disturbance is preserved not only across the entire core of the vortex, but also along the axis of the vortex into the region of vortex breakdown. This unsteady modification results in time-mean alteration of the axial and swirl velocity fields and the location of vortex breakdown. Localized control at long and short time-scales involves application of various transient forms of suction and blowing using small probes upstream and downstream of the location of vortex breakdown, as well as distributed suction and blowing along the leading-edge of the wing applied in a direction tangential to the feeding sheet. These local control techniques can result in substantial alteration of the location of vortex breakdown; in some cases, it is possible to accomplish this without net mass addition to the flow field.

Magness, C.↗

A similarity hypothesis for the two-point correlation tensor in a temporally evolving plane wake

The analysis demonstrated that the governing equations for the two-point velocity correlation tensor in the temporally evolving wake admit similarity solutions, which include the similarity solutions for the single-point moment as a special case. The resulting equations for the similarity solutions include two constants, beta and Re(sub sigma), that are ratios of three characteristic time scales of processes in the flow: a viscous time scale, a time scale characteristic of the spread rate of the flow, and a characteristic time scale of the mean strain rate. The values of these ratios depend on the initial conditions of the flow and are most likely measures of the coherent structures in the initial conditions. The occurrences of these constants in the governing equations for the similarity solutions indicates that these solutions, in general, will only be the same for two flows if these two constants are equal (and hence the coherent structures in the flows are related). The comparisons between the predictions of the similarity hypothesis and the data presented here and elsewhere indicate that the similarity solutions for the two-point correlation tensors provide a good approximation of the measures of those motions that are not significantly affected by the boundary conditions caused by the finite extent of real flows. Thus, the two-point similarity hypothesis provides a useful tool for both numerical and physical experimentalist that can be used to examine how the finite extent of real flows affect the evolution of the different scales of motion in the flow.

Ewing, D. W.↗

The Space-Time Conservative Schemes for Large-Scale, Time-Accurate Flow Simulations with Tetrahedral Meshes

Despite decades of development of unstructured mesh methods, high-fidelity time-accurate simulations are still predominantly carried out on structured, or unstructured hexahedral meshes by using high-order finite-difference, weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO), or hybrid schemes formed by their combinations. In this work, the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is used to simulate several flow problems including supersonic jet/shock interaction and its impact on launch vehicle acoustics, and direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows using tetrahedral meshes. This paper provides a status report for the continuing development of the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) numerical and software framework under the Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) project. Solution accuracy and large-scale parallel performance of the numerical framework is assessed with the goal of providing a viable paradigm for future high-fidelity flow physics simulations.

Venkatachari, Balaji Shankar↗

Multirate Time Integration for ODEs and DAEs (Final Report)

This project investigated multirate time integration methods. These methods evolve a differential equation system in time by advancing parts of the problem with fast time scales at small time steps and parts of the problem with slow time scales with larger time steps. The project developed new methods and theory as well as a set of prototype software implementations. Multirate methods were tested on combustion and climate applications. A series of five presentations were given on project results and two papers are planned.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Cutoff in the X-Ray Fluctuation Power Density Spectrum of the Seyfert 1 Galaxy NGC 3516

During 1997 March-July, RXTE observed the bright, strongly variable Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 3516 once every approx. 12.8 hr for 4.5 months and nearly continuously (with interruptions due to SAA passage but not Earth occultation) for a 4.2 day period in the middle. These were followed by ongoing monitoring once every approx. 4.3 days. These data are used to construct the first well-determined X-ray fluctuation power density spectrum (PDS) of an active galaxy to span more than 4 decades of usable temporal frequency. The PDS shows no signs of any strict or quasi-periodicity, but does show a progressive flattening of the power-low slope from -1.74 at short time scales to -0.73 at longer time scales. This is the clearest observation to date of the long-predicted cutoff in the PDS. The characteristic variability time scale corresponding to this cutoff temporal frequency is approx. 1 month. Although it is unclear how this time scale may be interpreted in terms of a physical size or process, there are several promising candidate models. The PDS appears similar to those seen for Galactic black hole candidates such as Cyg X-1, suggesting that these two classes of objects with very different luminosities and putative black hole masses (differing by more than a factor of 10(exp 5)) may have similar X-ray generation processes and structures.

Edelson, Rick↗

Global Lightning Variations Caused by Changes in Flash Rate and by Changes in Number of Thunderstorms

Observations from the Optical Transient Detector in space are used to examine the response of the number of storms and the total flash rate to thermodynamic forcing of deep convection on the diurnal and annual time scales. On the diurnal time scale, the flash rate appears to track with cloud buoyancy, and storm numbers dominate later in the cycle. On the annual time scale, almost all of the total lightning response is due to changes in the number of storms, with a negligible contribution from flash rate.

Williams, E.↗

Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1

There is a growing demand for understanding sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Predictability at subseasonal time scales is believed to come from processes varying slower than the atmosphere such as soil moisture, snowpack, sea ice, and ocean heat content. The stratosphere as well as tropospheric modes of variability can also provide predictability at subseasonal time scales. Furthermore, the contributions of the above sources to S2S predictability are not well quantified. Here we evaluate the subseasonal prediction skill of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), in the default version of the model as well as a version with the improved representation of stratospheric variability to assess the role of an improved stratosphere on prediction skill. We demonstrate that the subseasonal skill of CESM1 for surface temperature and precipitation is comparable to that of operational models. We find that a better-resolved stratosphere improves stratospheric but not surface prediction skill for weeks 3–4.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved scaling laws for the shock-induced dispersal of a dense particle curtain

Here, experiments were performed within Sandia National Labs’ Multiphase Shock Tube to measure and quantify the shock-induced dispersal of a shock/dense particle curtain interaction. Following interaction with a planar travelling shock wave, schlieren imaging at 75 kHz was used to track the upstream and downstream edges of the curtain. Data were obtained for two particle diameter ranges ( $d_{p}=106{-}125$ , $300{-}355~\unicode[STIX]{x03BC}\text{m}$ ) across Mach numbers ranging from 1.24 to 2.02. Using these data, along with data compiled from the literature, the dispersion of a dense curtain was studied for multiple Mach numbers (1.2–2.6), particle sizes ( $100{-}1000~\unicode[STIX]{x03BC}\text{m}$ ) and volume fractions (9–32 %). Data were non-dimensionalized according to two different scaling methods found within the literature, with time scales defined based on either particle propagation time or pressure ratio across a reflected shock. The data refelct that spreading of the particle curtain is a function of the volume fraction, with the effectiveness of each time scale based on the proximity of a given curtain’s volume fraction to the dilute mixture regime. It is observed that volume fraction corrections applied to a traditional particle propagation time scale result in the best collapse of the data between the two time scales tested here. In addition, a constant-thickness regime has been identified, which has not been noted within previous literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Expanded RXTE Survey of Long-Term X-ray Variability in Seyfert 1 Galaxies

The first seven years of RXTE monitoring of Seyfert 1 active galactic nuclei have been systematically analyzed to yield five homogenous samples of 2-12 keV light curves, probing hard X-ray variability on successively longer durations from approx. 1 day to approx. 3.5 years. 2-10 keV variability on time scales of approx. 1 day, as probed by ASCA, are included. All sources exhibit stronger X-ray variability towards longer time scales, with variability amplitudes saturating at the longest time scales, but the increase is greater for relatively higher luminosity sources. The well-documented anticorrelation between variability amplitude and luminosity is confirmed on all time scales. However, anticorrelations between variability amplitude and black hole mass estimate are evident on only the shortest time scales probed. The data are consistent with the models of power spectral density (PSD) movement described in Markowitz et al. (2003) and McHardy et al. (2004), whereby Seyfert 1 galaxies variability can be described by a single, universal PSD shape whose cutoff frequency scales with black hole mass. The best-fitting scaling relations between variability time scale, black hole mass and X-ray luminosity support an average accretion rate of 2% of the Eddington limit for the sample. Nearly all sources exhibit stronger variability in the relatively soft 2-4 keV band compared to the 7-12 keV band on all time scales. Color-flux diagrams support also Seyfert 1s' softening as they brighten. There are indications that relatively less luminous or less massive sources exhibit a greater degree of spectral variability for a given increase in overall flux.

Markowitz, A.↗

Magnetic reconnection and thermal equilibration

When a magnetic field is forced to evolve on a time scale sev, as by footpoint motions driving the solar corona or non-axisymmetric instabilities in tokamaks, the magnetic field lines undergo large-scale changes in topology on a time scale approximately an order of magnitude longer than $\tau$ ev . But the physics that allows such changes operates on a time scale eight or more orders of magnitude slower. An analogous phenomenon occurs in air. Temperature equilibration occurs on a time scale approximately an order of magnitude longer than it takes air to cross a room, $\tau$ ev , although the physical mechanism that allows temperature equilibration is approximately four orders of magnitude slower than $\tau$ ev . The use of Lagrangian coordinates allows the fundamental equations to be solved and both phenomena explained. The theories of thermal equilibration and magnetic reconnection are developed in parallel to help readers obtain an understanding of the importance and implications of analyses using Lagrangian coordinates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A crude model to study radio frequency induced density modification close to launchers

The interplay between radio frequency (RF) waves and the density is discussed by adopting the general framework of a 2-time-scale multi-fluid treatment, allowing to separate the dynamics on the RF time scale from that on the time scale on which macroscopic density and flows vary as a result of the presence of electromagnetic and/or electrostatic fields. The focus is on regions close to launchers where charge neutrality is incomplete and waves are commonly evanescent. The fast time scale dynamics influences the slow time scale behavior via quasilinear terms (the Ponderomotive force for the case of the equation of motion). Electrons and ions are treated on the same footing. Also, both fast and slow waves are retained in the wave description. Although this work is meant as a subtopic of a large study—the wave induced “convective cell” physics at hand is of a 2- or 3-dimensional nature while this paper limits itself to a single dimension—a few tentative examples are presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A macroscopic description of a generalized self-organized criticality system: Astrophysical applications

We suggest a generalized definition of self-organized criticality (SOC) systems: SOC is a critical state of a nonlinear energy dissipation system that is slowly and continuously driven toward a critical value of a system-wide instability threshold, producing scale-free, fractal-diffusive, and intermittent avalanches with power law-like size distributions. We develop here a macroscopic description of SOC systems that provides an equivalent description of the complex microscopic fine structure, in terms of fractal-diffusive transport (FD-SOC). Quantitative values for the size distributions of SOC parameters (length scales L, time scales T, waiting times Δt, fluxes F, and fluences or energies E) are derived from first principles, using the scale-free probability conjecture, N(L)dL∝L {sup –d}, for Euclidean space dimension d. We apply this model to astrophysical SOC systems, such as lunar craters, the asteroid belt, Saturn ring particles, magnetospheric substorms, radiation belt electrons, solar flares, stellar flares, pulsar glitches, soft gamma-ray repeaters, black-hole objects, blazars, and cosmic rays. The FD-SOC model predicts correctly the size distributions of 8 out of these 12 astrophysical phenomena, and indicates non-standard scaling laws and measurement biases for the others.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Drought and Heat Waves: The Role of SST and Land Surface Feedbacks

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. At the shortest time scales it is often associated with heat waves that last only several weeks to a few months but nevertheless can have profound detrimental impacts on society (e.g., heat-related impacts on human health, desiccation of croplands, increased fire hazard), while at the longest time scales it can extend over decades and can lead to long term structural changes in many aspects of society (e.g., agriculture, water resources, wetlands, tourism, population shifts). There is now considerable evidence that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a leading role in the development of drought world-wide, especially at seasonal and longer time scales, though land-atmosphere feedbacks can also play an important role. At shorter (subseasonal) time scales, SSTs are less important, but land feedbacks can play a critical role in maintaining and amplifying the atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves and short-term droughts. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation and temperature variations on subseasonal to centennial time scales. This includes an assessment of predictability, prediction skill, and user needs at all time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

On the origin of metal homogeneities in globular clusters

Various transport processes which may have affected the chemical homogeneity in protocluster clouds are examined. It is shown that the characteristic diffusion time scale associated with collisions between grains and gas atoms is considerably longer than that on which star formation is expected to occur. Collisions between large grains and gas atoms lead to mass segregation and metallicity gradients on a time scale comparable to the crossing time of the clusters in the Galaxy. One possible mechanism for inducing and maintaining chemical homogeneity is turbulent diffusion in the clouds. The mixing time scale required in this case is comparable to several internal dynamical time scales, longer than the evolutionary time scale of the most massive stars, and shorter than the Galactic orbital time scale of the clouds. Thus, metals in presently observed stars probably did not originate from upper main-sequence stars of a coeval generation.

Murray, Stephen D.↗