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Asteroid astrometry, like any other scientific measurement process, is subject to both random and systematic errors, not all of which are under the observer's control. To design an astrometric observing program or to improve an existing one requires knowledge of the various sources of error, how different errors affect one's results, and how various errors may be minimized by careful observation or data reduction techniques.
Asteroids astrometry, like any other scientific measurement process, is subject to both random and systematic errors, not all of which are under the observer's control.
One-dimensional hybrid fs/ps CARS imaging provides single-laser-shot measurements of temperature, oxygen, and hydrogen in a plasma-assisted hydrogen diffusion flame. The coaxial dielectric-barrier-discharge burner collapses the Re ~50 hydrogen diffusion flame to within ~5 mm of the burner surface at an applied AC potential of 8.75 kV at 18 kHz, coinciding nicely with the full spatial extent of the 1D CARS measurements. Translating the burner through the measurement volume allowed for measurements at numerous radial locations in increments of 1 mm with a resolution of 140 µm × 30 µm × 600 µm, sufficient to resolve spatial gradients in this unsteady flame. Longer probe delays, required for improved dynamic range in regions of high temperature fluctuations, proved difficult to model as a result of a nontrivial decay in the O 2 Raman coherence arising from complexities associated with the triplet ground electronic state of the O 2 molecule. Oxygen linewidths were treated empirically using the observed O 2 coherence decay in spectra acquired from the product gases of lean, near-adiabatic H 2 /air flames stabilized on a Hencken flat-flame burner. While still leading to errors up to 10% at worst, the empirically determined Raman linewidth factors eliminated any systematic error in the O 2 /N 2 measurements with probe delay. Temperature measurements in the Hencken Burner flames proved to be insensitive to probe pulse delay, providing robust thermometry. Here, demonstration of this technique in both the canonical Hencken burner flames and a new DBD burner validates its effectiveness in producing multiple spatially resolved measurements in combustion environments. Measurements in the DBD burner revealed an unsteady, counterflow flattened flame structure near the fuel orifice which became unsteady as the reaction zone curves towards the surface for larger radial positions. Lastly, fluctuations in the fuel concentration were largest at the source, as the large, plasma-generated, unsteady external toroidal vortex that dominates the transport in this flame provides enhanced ventilation of the flame surface in close proximity to the fuel tube.
Elastic nucleon-pion scattering amplitudes are computed using lattice QCD on a single ensemble of gauge field configurations with N f = 2 + 1 dynamical quark flavors and m π = 200 MeV. The s-wave scattering lengths with both total isospins I = 1/2 and I = 3/2 are inferred from the finite-volume spectrum below the inelastic threshold together with the I = 3/2 p-wave containing the Δ(1232) resonance. The amplitudes are well-described by the effective range expansion with parameters constrained by fits to the finite-volume energy levels, enabling a determination of the I = 3/2 scattering length with statistical errors below 5%, while the I = 1/2 scattering length is somewhat less precisely evaluated. Systematic errors due to excited states and the influence of higher partial waves are controlled, providing a step toward future computations down to physical light quark masses with multiple lattice spacings and volumes.
The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) was built with a thermionic electron source and the three original experimental hall lines reflected this. A few years after beam delivery began a parity violation experiment was approved and two polarimeters were installed in the Hall A beam line. The beam raster system was placed after the new Compton polarimeter, before one accelerator quadrupole and four quadrupoles in the new Moller polarimeter. It was very difficult to meet experimental requirements on envelope functions and raster shape with this arrangement so a sixth quadrupole was installed downstream of the Moller polarimeter to provide an additional degree of freedome. All of the parity experiments in Hall A have been run with this still-unsatisfactory configuration. The MOLLER experiment is predicated on achieving a 2% error on a 32 ppb asymmetry. Beam line changes are required to meet the systematic error budget. This work documents the existing beam line, an interim change which can be accomplished during a annual maintenance down, and the final configuration for MOLLER and subsequent experiments.
Purpose: There is increased interest in the Radiation Oncology Physics community regarding sensitivity of pre-treatment IMRT/VMAT QA to delivery errors. Consequently, tools mapping pre-treatment QA to the patient DVH have been developed. However, the quantity of plan degradation that is acceptable remains uncertain. Using DVHs adapted from prior patients’ plans, we developed a technique to determine the magnitude of various delivery errors required to degrade a treatment plan to outside the clinically accepted range. Methods: DVHs for relevant organs at risk were adapted from a population of prior patients’ plans using a machine learning algorithm to establish the clinically acceptable DVH range specific to the patient’s anatomy. We applied this technique to six low-risk prostate cancer patients treated with single-arc VMAT and compared error-induced DVH changes to the adapted DVHs to determine the magnitude of error required to push the plan outside of the acceptable range. The procedure follows: (1) Errors (systematic ' random shift of MLCs, gantry-MLC desynchronization, dose rate fluctuations, etc.) were simulated and degraded DVHs calculated using the Varian Eclipse TPS. (2) Adapted DVHs and acceptable ranges for DVHs were established. (3) Relevant dosimetric indices and corresponding acceptable ranges were calculated from the DVHs. Key indices included NTCP (Lyman-Kutcher-Burman Model) and QUANTEC’s dose-volume Objectives: s of V75Gy≤0.15 for the rectum and V75Gy≤0.25 for the bladder. Results: Degradations to the clinical plan became “unacceptable” for 19±29mm and 1.9±2.0mm systematic outward shifts of a single leaf and leaf bank, respectively. All other simulated errors fell within the acceptable range. Conclusion: Utilizing machine learning and prior patients’ plans one can predict a clinically acceptable range of DVH degradation for a specific patient. Comparing error-induced DVH degradations to this range, it is shown that single-arc VMAT plans for low-risk prostate are relatively insensitive to many potential delivery errors.
Thin flat scintillator slabs are a useful means of measuring the angular location of gamma ray fluxes of astronomical interest. A statistical estimate of position error was made of two scintillator systems suitable for gamma ray burst location from a balloon or satellite platform. A single rotating scintillator with associated flux monitor is compared with a pair of stationary orthogonal scintillators. Position error for a strong burst is of the order of a few arcmin if systematic errors are ignored.
A covariance analysis indicates that GPS baseline precision in northern South America is substantially improved when fiducial stations in North America are supplemented by stations in Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand. The formal errors for a variety of fiducial networks are calculated. It is found that the systematic error of fiducial stations is dependent on the fiducial network geometry. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the baselines of northern South America are very sensitive to uncertainties in the locations of the closest fiducial stations.
The internal consistency of the baseline-length measurements derived from analysis of several independent VLBI experiments is an estimate of the measurement precision. The paper investigates whether the inclusion of water vapor radiometer (WVR) data as an absolute calibration of the propagation delay due to water vapor improves the precision of VLBI baseline-length measurements. The paper analyzes 28 International Radio Interferometric Surveying runs between June 1988 and January 1989; WVR measurements were made during each session. The addition of WVR data decreased the scatter of the length measurements of the baselines by 5-10 percent. The observed reduction in the scatter of the baseline lengths is less than what is expected from the behavior of the formal errors, which suggest that the baseline-length measurement precision should improve 10-20 percent if WVR data are included in the analysis. The discrepancy between the formal errors and the baseline-length results can be explained as the consequence of systematic errors in the dry-mapping function parameters, instrumental biases in the WVR and the barometer, or both.
Marine air temperature observations are collected by volunteer observing ships carrying automatic meteorological sensor packages. Close proximity of the package mount to a dark colored ship's deck is known to introduce a warm bias on sunny afternoons in summer under low wind conditions. This observation set is used as an influential constraint in the MERRA-2 reanalysis, as well as several other reanalyses, in the poorly sampled surface marine boundary layer. Here we explore the consequences of bias in the marine air temperature observation set during the 36 year period 1980-2015. Marine air temperature observations have mainly been collected along major shipping routes, with the densest coverage in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. In the first part of this presentation we review the historical observation coverage and compare air temperature and contemporaneous SST measurements to identify systematic differences. The comparison suggests the presence of diurnal bias in the air temperature observations peaking in subtropics and midlatitudes latitudes in mid-afternoon local time. In the second part we explore the impact of the marine air temperature observations on MERRA-2 through analysis of the terms in the temperature forecast tendency equation, the equation which describes the contributions to changes in temperature during each analysis cycle. Examination of the temperature forecast tendency equation allows us to separate systematic errors due to such processes and radiation, mixing, and advection and allows us to identify the major source of systematic forecast tendencies. The results show that the marine air temperature measurements introduce an error that can reach 0.4K/dy which also peaks in local afternoon at subtropical latitudes. This bias varies with season and has gradually reduced from the beginning of the MERRA-2 reanalysis in 1980. In the final part we conduct numerical experiments with a version of the MERRA-2 analysis system, comparing experiments when the marine air temperature observations are included or withheld from the analysis system.
The ability to detect and control fuel isotopic content down to a 1% concentration level is greatly important for the upcoming JET DTE2 campaign, as well as its associated TT and DD phases. A reduction of H minority concentration even from 2% down to 1% is shown in this paper to have significant impact on the effectiveness of ion cyclotron range of frequencies core heating, while the ability to maintain T or D concentration at or below 1% is critical to limiting fusion neutron generation in the DD and TT phases, correspondingly. The sub-divertor measurement of (global) isotopic concentration, based on Penning-activated optical spectroscopy, can deliver minimally this 1% detection for DTE2 as long as light collection from the Penning emission can be optimized and gradual window transmission deterioration can be minimized. Here, this is simulated with a statistical analysis developed to understand the uncertainty sources in the JET DTE1 data, as well as to guide the optimization of an upgraded, fuel-isotopic content (and helium-ash concentration) gas analysis system for the JET divertor in preparation for DTE2. While this random error can be reduced to allow measurement substantially below 1% concentration, analysis also shows a systematic error of up to 1% understood to be due to plasma–surface interactions in the Penning excitation, suggesting that 1% may still be the low-end limit for the sub-divertor measurement, unless a Penning-source conditioning approach is also developed.
Counts of galaxy clusters offer a high-precision probe of cosmology, but control of systematic errors will determine the accuracy of this measurement. Using Buzzard simulations, we quantify one such systematic, the triaxiality distribution of clusters identified with the redMaPPer optical cluster finding algorithm, which was used in the Dark Energy Survey Year-1 (DES Y1) cluster cosmology analysis. We test whether redMaPPer selection biases the clusters’ shape and orientation and find that it only biases orientation, preferentially selecting clusters with their major axes oriented along the line of sight. Modelling the richness–mass relation as log-linear, we find that the log-richness amplitude ln (A) is boosted from the lowest to highest orientation bin with a significance of 14σ, while the orientation dependence of the richness-mass slope and intrinsic scatter is minimal. We also find that the weak lensing shear-profile ratios of cluster-associated dark haloes in different orientation bins resemble a ‘bottleneck’ shape that can be quantified with a Cauchy function. We test the correlation of orientation with two other leading systematics in cluster cosmology – miscentering and projection – and find a null correlation. The resulting mass bias predicted from our templates confirms the DES Y1 finding that triaxiality is a leading source of bias in cluster cosmology. However, the richness-dependence of the bias confirms that triaxiality does not fully resolve the tension at low-richness between DES Y1 cluster cosmology and other probes. Our model can be used for quantifying the impact of triaxiality bias on cosmological constraints for upcoming weak lensing surveys of galaxy clusters.
Purpose: The gamma comparison is widely used to evaluate the agreement between measurements and treatment planning system calculations in patient-specific intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA). However, recent publications have raised concerns about the lack of sensitivity when employing commonly used gamma criteria. Understanding the actual sensitivity of a wide range of different gamma criteria may allow the definition of more meaningful gamma criteria and tolerance limits in IMRT QA. We present a method that allows the quantitative determination of gamma criteria sensitivity to induced errors which can be applied to any unique combination of device, delivery technique, and software utilized in a specific clinic. Methods: A total of 21 DMLC IMRT QA measurements (ArcCHECK®, Sun Nuclear) were compared to QA plan calculations with induced errors. Three scenarios were studied: MU errors, multi-leaf collimator (MLC) errors, and the sensitivity of the gamma comparison to changes in penumbra width. Gamma comparisons were performed between measurements and error-induced calculations using a wide range of gamma criteria, resulting in a total of over 20 000 gamma comparisons. Gamma passing rates for each error class and case were graphed against error magnitude to create error curves in order to represent the range of missed errors in routine IMRT QA using 36 different gamma criteria. Results: This study demonstrates that systematic errors and case-specific errors can be detected by the error curve analysis. Depending on the location of the error curve peak (e.g., not centered about zero), 3%/3 mm threshold = 10% at 90% pixels passing may miss errors as large as 15% MU errors and ±1 cm random MLC errors for some cases. As the dose threshold parameter was increased for a given %Diff/distance-to-agreement (DTA) setting, error sensitivity was increased by up to a factor of two for select cases. This increased sensitivity with increasing dose threshold was consistent across all studied combinations of %Diff/DTA. Criteria such as 2%/3 mm and 3%/2 mm with a 50% threshold at 90% pixels passing are shown to be more appropriately sensitive without being overly strict. However, a broadening of the penumbra by as much as 5 mm in the beam configuration was difficult to detect with commonly used criteria, as well as with the previously mentioned criteria utilizing a threshold of 50%. Conclusions: We have introduced the error curve method, an analysis technique which allows the quantitative determination of gamma criteria sensitivity to induced errors. The application of the error curve method using DMLC IMRT plans measured on the ArcCHECK® device demonstrated that large errors can potentially be missed in IMRT QA with commonly used gamma criteria (e.g., 3%/3 mm, threshold = 10%, 90% pixels passing). Additionally, increasing the dose threshold value can offer dramatic increases in error sensitivity. This approach may allow the selection of more meaningful gamma criteria for IMRT QA and is straightforward to apply to other combinations of devices and treatment techniques.
Forecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction model are documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. Error growth in very idealized models is described in order to anticipate various features of these forecasts and in order to anticipate what the results might be if forecasts longer than 10 days were carried out by present day numerical weather prediction models. The data set for this study is described, and the equilibrium spectra and error spectra are documented; then, the total error is documented. It is shown how forecasts can immediately be improved by removing the systematic error, by using statistical filters, and by ignoring forecasts beyond about a week. Temporal variations in the error field are also documented.
Lunar laser-ranging data, accumulated between 1970 and 1986, are analyzed to estimate the deviation of the precession of the moon's orbit from the predictions of general relativity. No deviation from this predicted de Sitter precession rate of nearly 2 angular sec per century (sec/cy) is found, to within an estimated standard error of 0.04 sec/cy. This standard error, 2 percent of the predicted effect, incorporates an assessment of the likely contributions of systematic errors, and is about threefold larger than the statistical standard error.
Analysis of radar observations from 1964 through 1983 yields the following values for the components of the spin vector of Venus: P = 243.026 + or - 0.006 d (retrograde); alpha = 272.75 + or - 0.09 deg; and delta = 67.10 + or - 0.09 deg, where the standard errors quoted are three- to five-fold larger than the statistical standard errors and encompass the changes in results obtained by various tests designed to expose possible systematic errors. These values demonstrate conclusively that the spin state of Venus is not in resonance with the relative orbital motions of Venus and earth.
Improvement in the accuracy of electron-probe microanalysis (EPMA) has been accomplished by critical assessment of standards, correction algorithms, and mass absorption coefficient data sets. Experimental measurement of relative x-ray intensities at multiple accelerating potential highlights errors in the absorption coefficient. The factor method has been applied to the evaluation of systematic errors in the analysis of semiconductor and silicate minds. Accurate EPMA of Martian soil stimulant is necessary in studies that build on Martian rover data in anticipation of missions to Mars.
The KaRIn (Ka-band radar interferometer) instrument for SWOT (surface water ocean topography) mission faces unique challenges in terms of phase stability and group delay stability requirements to achieve centimeter level accuracy for height measurements. Conventional altimetry assumes nadir point return and measures a single range. SWOT will require additional angle of arrival information to provide swath coverage. Errors in differential phase and common group delay can both act as primary sources of systematic errors in determining the height using interferometric data. The ground support equipment (GSE) necessary for the performance requirements verification gets a fraction of the error allocation from the instrument. A phase measurement system capable of measuring millidegrees and working with pulsed excitation is developed and the preliminary results are described in this paper.