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At least 451 records · Page 25

Illumination Conditions of the Lunar Polar Regions Using LOLA Topography

We use high-resolution altimetry data obtained by the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to characterize present illumination conditions in the polar regions of the Moon. Compared to previous studies, both the spatial and temporal extent of the simulations are increased significantly, as well as the coverage (fill ratio) of the topographic maps used, thanks to the 28 Hz firing rate of the five-beam instrument. We determine the horizon elevation in a number of directions based on 240 m-resolution polar digital elevation models reaching down to 75 latitude. The illumination of both polar regions extending to 80 can be calculated for any geometry from those horizon longitudinal profiles. We validated our modeling with recent Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide-Angle Camera images. We assessed the extent of permanently shadowed regions (PSRs, defined as areas that never receive direct solar illumination), and obtained total areas generally larger than previous studies (12,866 and 16,055 sq. km, in the north and south respectively). We extended our direct illumination model to account for singly-scattered light, and found that every PSR does receive some amount of scattered light during the year. We conducted simulations over long periods (several 18.6-years lunar precession cycles) with a high temporal resolution (6 h), and identified the most illuminated locations in the vicinity of both poles. Because of the importance of those sites for exploration and engineering considerations, we characterized their illumination more precisely over the near future. Every year, a location near the Shackleton crater rim in the south polar region is sunlit continuously for 240 days, and its longest continuous period in total darkness is about 1.5 days. For some locations small height gains ( 10 m) can dramatically improve their average illumination and reduce the night duration, rendering some of those particularly attractive energy-wise as possible sites for near-continuous sources of solar power.

E. Mazarico↗

Further study of inversion layer MOS solar cells

A group of inversion layer MOS solar cells has been fabricated. The highest value of open-circuit voltage obtained for the cells is 0.568V. One of the cells has produced a short-circuit current of 79.6 mA and an open-circuit voltage of 0.54V. It is estimated that the actual area AMO efficiency of this cell is 6.6 percent with an assumed value of 0.75 for its fill factor. Efforts made for fabricating an IL/MOS cell with reasonable efficiencies are reported. Future work for 4 sq cm IL cells and 25 sq cm IL cells is discussed.

Ho, Fat Duen↗

Space Biology and Medicine: Space and Its Exploration - Volume I

Perhaps one of the greatest gifts that has been given to the people of the world in the last few hundred years has been an emerging sense of the place of our planet and its inhabitants within the context of the vast universe. Our knowledge of the rest of the universe has not come quickly, nor was the process of attaining it only recently begun; however, the unprecedented acceleration of that process has benefitted from a fundamental new aspect of our species that has only manifested itself in the last 30 years or so, the ability to travel in space. Before the space age, the Universe was studied only through observations from the Earth. All that has changed with the beginning of the space age. Machines built by humans have flown to all but one of the nine planets that revolve around our Sun, have ventured billions of miles from the Earth and looked back, and have landed on three other worlds. Spacecraft in orbit around the Earth have viewed the sky at a vast number of electromagnetic wavelengths, detecting the shape of the galaxy and the universe, and even measuring the remnants of the universe's beginning. Human explorers have ventured forth, first for short stays in orbit, then, later, walking upon the Moon and living for long periods in space. As they did so, billions of people on the Earth came to view the Earth in a fundamentally different way, not just as the familiar day to- day backdrop for their lives, but as a small oasis suspended in the night sky above an alien landscape. It is this new view of the Earth that is the true gift of space exploration. Space exploration has at once given us a new perspective on the value of our world, and a new perspective from which to understand how it operates. It has shown us that the Earth is by far the most precious place in the solar system in terms of supporting human life, while revealing that other destinations may still be compelling. The exploration of space has at once become a challenge for humanity to overcome and a path to our common future. But for humanity to embark on this path, we need to understand ourselves in a new environment. As such, an understanding of the biological consequences of and opportunities in space flight is essential. In this, the first volume of a joint U.S./Russian series on space biology and medicine, we describe the current status of our understanding of space and present general information that will prove useful when reading subsequent volumes. Since we are witnesses to the beginning of a new era of interplanetary travel, a significant portion of the first volume will concentrate on the physical and ecological conditions that exist in near and outer space, as well as heavenly bodies from the smallest ones to the giant planets and stars. While space exploration is a comparatively recent endeavor, its foundations were laid much more than 30 years ago, and its history has been an eventful one. In the first part of this volume, Rauschenbach, Sokolskiy, and Gurjian address the "Historical Aspects of Space Exploration" from its beginnings to a present-day view of the events of the space age. The nature of space itself and its features is the focus of the second section of the volume. In the first chapter of the part, "Stars and Interstellar Space," the origin and evolution of stars, and the nature of the portions of space most distant from Earth are described by Galeev and Marochnik. In Chapter 2, Pisarenko, Logachev, and Kurt in "The Sun and Interplanetary Space" bring us to the vicinity of our own solar system and provide a description and discussion of the nearest star and its influence on the space environment that our Earth and the other planets inhabit. In our solar system there are many fascinating objects, remnants of the formation of a rather ordinary star in a rather obscure portion of the galaxy. Historical accident has caused us to be much more curious (and knowledgeable) about "The Inner Planets of the Solar System" than about any of these other objects. In Chapter 3, Marov describes the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, their history and origin, and their environmental conditions, and in Chapter 4 Owen provides similar information about Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, "The Outer Planets of the Solar System." Morrison provides a thorough discussion of "Asteroids, Comets, and Other Small Bodies" in Chapter 5. The understanding of these relics of the formation of the solar system may form the center of our ability to understand the origin of solar systems in general, and of the critical role that the beginning of the solar system had on the prospects for the origin of life and its continued survival and evolution in the face of their recurrent impacts on Earth. In Chapter 6, the first chapter of the third part, Rummel describes the area of "Exobiology," the study of the origin, evolution, and distribution of life in the context of the origin and evolution of the universe. The same processes that have given rise to life on Earth may have given rise to life elsewhere. In Chapter 7, the "Earth and the Biosphere," the nature and function of the Earth are discussed as a specific instance of planetary and biological evolution. The effects of biological processes on the Earth under the influence of human activities are also addressed by Moore and Bartlett in Chapter 7. The final chapter in this section concerns the prospects that life in the universe may be widespread; "SETI," the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, by Billingham and Tarter, presents the arguments for conducting a search for evidence of life elsewhere in the galaxy, and describes the various methods proposed for conducting such a search. While SETI has a distinctly exploration al character, more direct means are available for exploring the solar system around us. The fourth part of the volume addresses this subject of space exploration. Considering the prospects for research on space biology and medicine, the means of providing "Access to Space" are described by Feoktistov and Briggs in Chapter 9. This chapter addresses carriers and launch systems, the unmanned and manned spacecraft that they loft into space, and the task of mission operations by which these precious vessels are monitored, navigated, and controlled. Despite the successes of the past and the capabilities of the present, it is clear that the study of space biology and medicine will be even more rewarding in the future than it has been to date. The work of the next few years that will be undertaken by the U.S. and Russia, both independently and jointly, will focus first on enabling greater capabilities in the exploration of space, and then on using the unique characteristics of the space environment to provide insight and greater understanding into biological systems, their behavior, development, and origin. The chapters of the first volume were written by leaders in their fields from the U.S. and Russia. The material presented summarizes our current understanding of space and its exploration. We understand that the first volume will be of interest not only to medical personnel and biologists, but also to general readers who want information about space beyond their own particular fields of expertise.

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.↗

Working Group Reports and Presentations: Asteroids

The study and utilization of asteroids will be an economical way to enable exploration of the solar system and extend human presence in space. There are thousands of near-earth objects (NEOs) that we will be able to reach. They offer resources, transportation, and exploration platforms, but also present a potential threat to civilization. Asteroids play a catastrophic role in the history of the Earth. Geological records indicate a regular history of massive impacts, which astronomical observations confirm is likely to continue with potentially devastating consequences. However, study and exploration of near earth asteroids can significantly increase advanced warning of an Earth impact, and potentially lead to the technology necessary to avert such a collision. Efforts to detect and prevent cataclysmic events would tend to foster and likely require international cooperation toward a unified goal of self-preservation. Exploration of asteroids will help us to understand our history and perhaps save our future. Besides the obvious and compelling scientific and security drivers for asteroid research and exploration, there are numerous engineering and industrial applications for near-term asteroid exploration. We have strong evidence that some asteroids are metal rich. Some are water and organic rich. They can be reached with a very low fuel cost compared to other solar system destinations. Once we reach them, there are efficient, simple extraction technologies available that would facilitate utilization. In addition, the costs of returning extracted resources from asteroids will be a fraction of the cost to return similar resources from the moon to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). These raw materials, extracted and shipped at relatively low cost, can be used to manufacture structures, fuel, and products which could be used to foster mankind s further exploration of the solar system. Asteroids also have the potential to offer transport to several destinations in the solar system. In addition to Mars and the Asteroid belt, it is possible to nudge the orbits of NEOs to provide convenient transport to other destinations. Resources to support life on these long voyages may be gathered from the host asteroid itself. As asteroids travel over a wide range of inclinations and ranges, they offer possible platforms to perform scientific investigations. These include unique vantage point observations of the sun and planets. These observations can help us to understand solar activity and space weather. They also afford us an opportunity to see how the earth looks from afar with different perspectives. When we look for planets outside of our solar system, these observations will help us to calibrate our data. Asteroids may also be used as platforms to support very long baseline interferometry with unprecedented angular resolutions.

Lewis, John↗

Overview of Thermal Design and Challenges for the Comet Astrobiology Exploration SAmple Return (CAESAR) Mission

The Comet Astrobiology Exploration SAmple Return (CAESAR) mission is one of two candidates selected by NASA in response to the New Frontiers 4 Announcement of Opportunity. If selected, CAESAR will fly to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (the same comet studied by ESA’s Rosetta mission) using solar electric propulsion. After some time in orbit around 67P collecting and analyzing images of 67P, a location for collecting a sample will be determined. Up to three “touch-and-go” maneuvers, similar to NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission, can be attempted with the requirement of collecting at least 80 g of comet sample. Once the sample has been collected, it will be stored in the Sample Containment Subsystem (SCS) and the comet volatiles will be transferred into the Gas Containment System (GCS) for the return cruise back to Earth. As CAESAR approaches Earth, the Sample Return Capsule (SRC), containing the GCS and SCS will separate from the spacecraft and return back to Earth. The sample will be recovered and placed into cold storage for future studies and investigations. CAESAR presents a number of thermal challenges including significantly different power configurations and orientation constraints throughout the mission as well as a large number of mechanisms and configurations that must function at very cold temperatures. The temperature requirements for preserving the sample also present a challenge. This paper presents some of the high level thermal requirements and describes how the CAESAR thermal design was driven by these requirements.

Peabody, Hume L.↗

Cosmic rays - Astronomy with energetic particles

All nuclei in the periodic table of the elements, as well as electrons and positrons, are present in the stream of cosmic-ray particles. The cosmic-ray particles constitute the only sample of matter from outside the solar system which reaches the earth. Some of the most accurate knowledge of the extrasolar-element abundance distribution is based on the study of these particles. Observational data concerning the cosmic rays are discussed along with cosmic-ray sources, questions of particle interactions and propagation, the electron spectrum, and the significance of the positron component. The directions of cosmic ray research in the immediate future are also considered, giving attention to some fundamental questions which have not yet been answered.

Meyer, P.↗

MO and DA on the SWIE Instrument on the Wind Spacecraft

The construction of the Faraday Cup portion of the SWIE instrument on the Wind spacecraft, participation in Mission Operations, and Data Analysis (MO and DA) of observations of the solar wind has been supported by a sequence of grants. This 'final' Report represents work done on Mission Operations and Data Analysis for the Faraday Cup portion of the SWE. The work reported here was supported under NASA Grant NAG5-7359 (OSP 6701100) from June 1998 to October 2001. It should be noted that this work is continuing under NASA Grant NAG-10915, and therefore this report is 'final' only in the sense that the Grant has changed its number; a future report will cover the entire period of work. We have two types of obligations under these contracts: (1) To provide and assure the validity of "Key Parameters" which describe the basic properties of the solar wind on a daily basis. We have provided our 92 second observations daily via plots and parameters available from our Web site: http://web.mit.edu/space/www/wind/wind.html (2). To carry out scientific studies based on our observations. To document the extent of our research, we are including below a list of publications and presentations related to this project. The observations from Wind have made a major contribution to the study of the solar wind, and have every indication of continuing to do so.

Lazarus, Alan J.↗

Planetary and Interplanetary Environmental Models for Radiation Analysis

The essence of environmental modeling is presented as suited for radiation analysis purposes. The variables of fundamental importance for radiation environmental assessment are discussed. The characterization is performed by dividing modeling into three areas, namely the interplanetary medium, the circumplanetary environment, and the planetary or satellite surface. In the first area, the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and their modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field as well as and solar particle events (SPE) are considered, in the second area the magnetospheres are taken into account, and in the third area the effect of the planetary environment is also considered. Planetary surfaces and atmospheres are modeled based on results from the most recent targeted spacecraft. The results are coupled with suited visualization techniques and radiation transport models in support of trade studies of health risks for future exploration missions.

DeAngelis, G.↗

Space Environmental Effects on Additively Manufactured (AM) Parts on MISSE-9/10

The Materials on International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) experiments have made a continuous presence on the ISS and allowed for testing of performance and durability of materials exposed to the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. Additive Manufacturing (AM) has been included on several MISSE flights, and many companies (Made in Space and Stratasys) and NASA centers wanted to test various AM material samples. The goal of studying Space Environmental Effects on AM Parts with MISSE 9/10 was to fly promising metal and polymer AM material samples (dogbones) that could have future manufacturing capabilities in space and conduct post-flight analysis of these materials via mechanical and optical properties. On these flights, MISSE-9 contained three Inconel and 12 polymer samples and MISSE-10 included three Inconel and 16 polymer samples. Before flying to the ISS, all the samples underwent thermal vacuum bakeout (at 60°C for 24 hours and 10-6 torr). After bakeout, control and flight experiments were weighed, and optical properties were taken. Optical properties such as solar absorptance and infrared emittance were taken on the control samples and the flight samples (preflight and postflight). To understand more about the mechanical properties of the AM samples, tensile testing was conducted on the samples to determine the yield and ultimate tensile strength of the dogbone samples against the control. Lastly, the torque on the fasteners securing the dogbone samples were loosened and measured using a torque wrench, and they were compared to their preflight torque specification required. Optical properties and masses were recorded before flight, and the postflight results were recorded and collected in June 2022 to study the effects. With the postflight analysis, NASA engineers can now better characterize how UV radiation and thermal cycling affect the material properties.

Materials on International Space Station Experimen↗

Development of GaAs/Si and GaAs/Si monolithic structures for future space solar cells

The results of heteroepitaxial growth of GaAs and GaAlAs directly on Si are presented, and applications to new cell structures are suggested. The novel feature is the elimination of a Ge lattice transition region. This feature not only reduces the cost of substrate preparation, but also makes possible the fabrication of high efficiency monolithic cascade structures. All films to be discussed were grown by organometallic chemical vapor deposition at atmospheric pressure. This process yielded reproducible, large-area films of GaAs, grown directly on Si, that are tightly adherent and smooth, and are characterized by a defect density of 5 x 10(6) power/sq cm. Preliminary studies indicate that GaAlAs can also be grown in this way. A number of promising applications are suggested. Certainly these substrates are ideal for low-weight GaAs space solar ells. For very high efficiency, the absence of Ge makes the technology attractive for GaAlAs/Si monolithic cascades, in which the Si substrates would first be provided with a suitable p/n junction. An evaluation of a three bandgap cascade consisting of appropriately designed GaAlAs/GaAs/Si layers is also presented.

Spitzer, M. B.↗

Imaging studies of comets

Schmidt camera plates of comet Bradfield were secured on several nights in October 1987. The images of October 20 show the development of a huge bend in the plasma tail travelling several hundred kilometers per second down the tail; the likely solar-wind origin of this event is being explored. A charged coupled device (CCD) detector has been obtained. Calibration of the CCD is still underway, but high-quality, filtered cometary images shoud be possible in the near future.

Niedner, Malcolm B., Jr.↗

Assessment of zero gravity effects on space worker health and safety

One objective of the study is to assess the effects of all currently known deviations from normal of medical, physiological, and biochemical parameters which appear to be due to zero gravity (zero-g) environment and to acceleration and deceleration to be experienced, as outlined in the references Solar Power Satellites (SPS) design, by space worker. Study results include identification of possible health or safety effects on space workers either immediate or delayed due to the zero gravity environment and acceleration and deceleration; estimation of the probability that an individual will be adversely affected; description of the possible consequence to work efficiency in persons adversely affected; and description of the possible/probable consequences to immediate and future health of individuals exposed to this environment. A research plan, which addresses the uncertainties in current knowledge regarding the health and safety hazards to exposed SPS space workers, is presented. Although most adverse affects experienced during space flight soon disappeared upon return to the Earth's environment, there remains a definite concern for the long-term effects to SPS space workers who might spend as much as half their time in space during a possible five year career period. The proposed 90 day up/90 day down cycle, coupled with the fact that most of the effects of weightlessness may persist throughout the flight along with the realization that recovery may occupy much of the terrestrial stay, may keep the SPS workers in a deviant physical condition or state of flux for 60 to 100% of their five year career.

Source record↗

A new observational approach to investigate the heliospheric interstellar wind interface - The study of extreme and far ultraviolet resonantly scattered solar radiation from neon, oxygen, carbon and nitrogen

One of the outstanding uncertainties in the understanding of the heliosphere concerns the character of the interaction between the outflowing solar wind and the interstellar medium. A new possibility for obtaining information on this topic is suggested. The cosmically abundant elements neon, oxygen, carbon, and nitrogen will be affected differently at their interface passage depending upon the character of this region. Consequently, the distribution of these atoms and their ions will vary within the inner heliosphere. The study of resonantly scattered solar radiation from these species will then provide information on the nature of the interface. A preliminary evaluation of this approach has been carried out, and the results are encouraging. The relevant lines to be studied are in the extreme and far ulraviolet. The existing data in these bands are reviewed; unfortunately, past instrumentation has had insufficient resolution and sensitivity to provide useful information. The capabilities of future approved missions with capabilities in this area are evaluated.

Bowyer, Stuart↗

Assessment Study of Small Space Debris Removal by Laser Satellites

Space debris in Earth orbit poses significant danger to satellites, humans in space, and future space exploration activities. In particular, the increasing number of unidentifiable objects, smaller than 10 cm, presents a serious hazard. Numerous technologies have been studied for removing unwanted objects in space. Our approach uses a short wavelength laser stationed in orbit to vaporize these small objects. This paper discusses the power requirements for space debris removal using lasers. A short wavelength laser pumped directly or indirectly by solar energy can scan, identify, position, and illuminate the target, which will then be vaporized or slow down the orbital speed of debris by laser detonation until it re-enters the atmosphere. The laser-induced plasma plume has a dispersive motion of approximately 105 m/sec with a Lambertian profile in the direction of the incoming beam [1-2]. The resulting fast ejecting jet plume of vaporized material should prevent matter recombination and condensation. If it allows any condensation of vaporized material, the size of condensed material will be no more than a nanoscale level [3]. Lasers for this purpose can be indirectly pumped by power from an array of solar cells or directly pumped by the solar spectrum [4]. The energy required for vaporization and ionization of a 10 cm cube (~ 2700 gm) of aluminum is 87,160 kJ. To remove this amount of aluminum in 3 minutes requires a continuous laser beam power of at least 5.38 MW under the consideration of 9% laser absorption by aluminum [5] and 5% laser pumping efficiency. The power needed for pumping 5.38 MW laser is approximately 108 MW, which can be obtained from a large solar array with 40% efficiency solar cells and a minimal area of 450 meters by 450 meters. This solar array would collect approximately 108 MW. The power required for system operation and maneuvering can be obtained by increasing solar panel size. This feasibility assessment covers roughly the power requirement, laser system, and a potential operational scenario.

Choi, Sang H.↗

On Orbit Flight Testing of the Roll-Out Solar Array

The Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) is an innovative, lightweight solar array with a flexible substrate that makes use of the stored strain energy in its composite structural members to provide deployment without the use of motors while still packaging efficiently. The ROSA flight experiment was launched to the International Space Station (ISS)on June 3rd, 2017 as a part of the eleventh SpaceX commercial resupply mission. After two weeks of storage, ROSA was extracted from the Dragon spacecraft, deployed, and put through a week of tests to verify its structural characteristics as well as the performance of photovoltaics. The structural dynamics experiments included active excitation of out-of-plane bending modes, and a study of the thermal-structural interaction of the structure during day-night transitions. Data was gathered from a small number of accelerometers located at key points on the solar array and from cameras observing numerous photogrammetry targets spread out over the structure and the photovoltaic blanket. The goal in this effort was to better understand the performance of ROSA and to improve modeling efforts for future designs of similar solar arrays. Of particular interest are the first few system modes and mode shapes of the array, the amount of structural damping present, and degree of structural-thermal interaction seen during eclipse exit.

ROSA↗

Acoustic Communication in Deep Ice at Ocean Worlds

One of NASA priorities is the in-situ exploration of ocean worlds in the solar system where potentially there might be life under the ice shell. This requires reaching the ocean below extremely cold through significant deep ice. Jupiter’s moon, Europa, is such a challenging body, where it is estimated to have a 40 km thick ice shell. An approach for reaching the ocean has been conceived using a melting probe Cryobot concept that has been studied for a potential future mission. A lander is assumed to be the platform from which the Cryobot would be deployed. The ice penetrating vehicle concept consists of a cylindrical, narrow-body probe that encases a radioisotope heat/power source that would be used to do the penetration by melting through the icy crust. The baseline design of the probe includes a suite of science instruments to analyze the ice during descent and the liquid ocean underneath. For communication, a set of fiber optic wire as well as wireless RF in the very cold porous top layer is assumed, and then acoustic modules would be used for the communication in warmer denser ice over distance of 25 km between the modules. In addition to the acoustic communication modules, a sonar is part of the concept, for obstacle avoidance. The focus of this paper is on the use of elastic waves in the 1kHz range.

Lih, Shyh-Shiuh↗

Solar-terrestrial research opportunities - A look to the future

Recent and proposed research programs and their impact on the understanding of solar-terrestrial interactions, the processes driving solar activity, and the propagation of the solar wind are outlined. The magnetospheres of the earth and major planets have been mapped and their interactions with the solar wind modeled. MHD activity has been identified as the driving force for stellar surface activity, and Pioneer data are permitting a mapping of the outer areas of the heliosphere. Further studies are required to understand solar magnetic field-earth magnetosphere, ionosphere-atmosphere interactions, the effects of solar heating on earth atmosphere ozone levels, and the effects of solar transient events on the earth atmosphere. The initiation of an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program is now under study and several satellites for solar-terrestrial research are under development as cooperative efforts among the U.S., Japanese, and European agencies.

Intriligator, D. S.↗

The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era

Over the CMIP6 historical period (1850–2014), aerosols provided the largest negative forcing compared to all other climate forcings via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds. Aerosols played an important role in counterbalancing warming by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ocean-atmosphere ModelE version 2.1 (GISS-E2.1-G) using a fully coupled atmospheric composition configuration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based aerosol (OMA) module. Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period are analyzed as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) future scenarios for 2015–2100: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcing in the GISS model has reached its turning point, switching from globally increasing to a decreasing trend in the first decade of the 21st century. This result is robust, independent of which aerosol module or SSP scenario is used. Non-linear aerosol-cloud interactions dominate as a forcing agent over aerosol-radiation interactions. Aerosols' ability to counterbalance GHG forcing on the global scale is today at a level comparable to that at the beginning of the last century. In the 1980s, the decade of largest global aerosol loads, aerosols balanced up to 80% of GHG forcing. As a consequence, global warming of the last decades, which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases, has been augmented by the effect of decreasing aerosol cooling in our model. By the end of this century, following the SSP scenarios, aerosols will only counterbalance 0%–20% of GHG forcing, depending on model and on scenario.

Aerosol forcing↗