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DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2011

Recovery Act: Federspiel Controls (now Vigilent) and State of California Department of General Services Data Center Energy Efficient Cooling Control Demonstration. Final technical project report

Eight State of California data centers were equipped with an intelligent energy management system to evaluate the effectiveness, energy savings, dollar savings and benefits that arise when powerful artificial intelligence-based technology measures, monitors and actively controls cooling operations. Control software, wireless sensors and mesh networks were used at all sites. Most sites used variable frequency drives as well. The system dynamically adjusts temperature and airflow on the fly by analyzing real-time demands, thermal behavior and historical data collected on site. Taking into account the chaotic interrelationships of hundreds to thousands of variables in a data center, the system optimizes the temperature distribution across a facility while also intelligently balancing loads, outputs, and airflow. The overall project will provide a reduction in energy consumption of more than 2.3 million kWh each year, which translates to $240,000 saved and a reduction of 1.58 million pounds of carbon emissions. Across all sites, the cooling energy consumption was reduced by 41%. The average reduction in energy savings across all the sites that use VFDs is higher at 58%. Before this case study, all eight data centers ran the cooling fans at 100% capacity all of the time. Because of the new technology, cooling fans run at the optimum fan speed maintaining stable air equilibrium while also expending the least amount of electricity. With lower fan speeds, the life of the capital investment made on cooling equipment improves, and the cooling capacity of the data center increases. This case study depicts a rare technological feat: The same process and technology worked cost effectively in eight very different environments. The results show that savings were achieved in centers with diverse specifications for the sizes, ages and types of cooling equipment. The percentage of cooling energy reduction ranged from 19% to 78% while keeping temperatures substantially within the limits recommended by the American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) for data center facilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Involute Working Group – FSI Analysis of Fuel Plates Using Finite Volume and Finite Element Methods

The three involute plate research reactors RHF, HFIR, and FRM II have expressed an interest in using computational software to carry their steady-state safety analysis. Since these tools represent a significant departure from the methods used currently (one-dimensional), the acceptability of the new approach by regulators requires thorough verification and validation of these tools. Therefore, Argonne National Laboratory and the three involute-plate reactors formed an informal group called the Involute Working Group aiming at qualifying computational tools to perform steady-state safety analysis. The present report focuses on a comparison of finite volume and finite element methods to model solids in fluid-structure interaction problems with the goal to estimate the coolant flow-induced fuel plate deflections obtained with the two methods. The finite volume method will be obsoleted in STARCCM+ by the end of 2021, nevertheless, this evaluation is important because the method was used by ANL researchers to model the response of the fuel plates, despite its drawbacks, which are discussed in the report. It was essential to check how those estimates compare to the results obtained with the finite element method that is considered superior for structural analysis. Various geometries, i.e., flat, cylindrical and circle-involute fuel plates, as well as coolant flow speed, were considered. The comparison shows that, independently of the plate geometry, the finite volume method significantly underestimates the deflection as compared to finite element method for coarser meshes. When the discretization is developed as a result of a mesh sensitivity study using finite element method, the result obtained using finite volume method can be a few times smaller than the corresponding finite element method solution. A code-to-code comparison , between STAR-CCM+ and LS-DYNA was included in the analysis. Within the LS-DYNA models, two types of finite element formulations were used: solid and shell finite elements. Mesh sensitivity study showed that both approaches converge to a similar value that was obtained with STAR-CCM+ finite element solver. The evaluation of the computational solvers was extended by adding two benchmark cases from the STAR-CCM+ Verification Suite and presented in the Appendix A. The selected cases are: (1) bending of a cantilever beam under external load, and (2) cylindrical shell deformation analysis, known in the literature as ‘Scordelis-Lo roof’. The problems were solved with finite volume, and finite element methods, and the results confirmed the previously discussed findings. The analysis shows that the finite element solver is superior to the finite volume solver in terms of representation of model geometry and estimating the structural behavior of fuel plates. Depending on the ratio of the load to the flexibility of the plate, the finite volume solver can greatly under- or overestimate the structural response if a very carefully selected mesh is not used.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP): Using the CBP Software Toolbox to Simulate Sulfate Attack and Carbonation of Concrete Structures - 13481

The Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) Project is a multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Tank Waste Management. The CBP project has developed a set of integrated modeling tools and leaching test methods to help improve understanding and prediction of the long-term hydraulic and chemical performance of cementitious materials used in nuclear applications. State-of-the-art modeling tools, including LeachXS{sup TM}/ORCHESTRA and STADIUM{sup R}, were selected for their demonstrated abilities to simulate reactive transport and degradation in cementitious materials. The new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency leaching test methods based on the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF), now adopted as part of the SW-846 RCRA methods, have been used to help make the link between modeling and experiment. Although each of the CBP tools has demonstrated utility as a standalone product, coupling the models over relevant spatial and temporal solution domains can provide more accurate predictions of cementitious materials behavior over relevant periods of performance. The LeachXS{sup TM}/ORCHESTRA and STADIUM{sup R} models were first linked to the GoldSim Monte Carlo simulator to better and more easily characterize model uncertainties and as a means to coupling the models allowing linking to broader performance assessment evaluations that use CBP results for a source term. Two important degradation scenarios were selected for initial demonstration: sulfate ingress / attack and carbonation of cementitious materials. When sufficient sulfate is present in the pore solution external to a concrete barrier, sulfate can diffuse into the concrete, react with the concrete solid phases, and cause cracking that significantly changes the transport and structural properties of the concrete. The penetration of gaseous carbon dioxide within partially saturated concrete usually initiates a series of carbonation reactions with both dissolved ions and the hydrated cement paste. The carbonation process itself does not have a negative effect, per se, on the paste physical properties and can even result in reduced porosity and can help form a protective layer at the surface of concrete. However, carbonation has been shown to increase leaching of some constituents and can potentially have a detrimental effect on reinforced concrete structures by lowering pH to ca. 9 and de-passivating embedded steel (e.g. rebar) and accelerating corrosion, which are important processes related to high-level waste tank integrity and closure evaluations. The use of the CBP Software Toolbox to simulate these important degradation phenomena for both concrete vaults and high-level waste tanks are demonstrated in this paper. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Computational-Experimental Study of Plasma Processing of Carbides at High Temperatures

The effects of plasma on carbides were computationally investigated for the ultimate development of adherent, dense scales such as Al 2 O 3 -TiO 2 systems toward oxidation resistance at 1873 K. An alumina scale forms on the carbide because of the significant stability of Al 2 O 3 as the outer scale adjacent to the gas phase compared to rutile, though TiO and Ti 2 O 3 may form as components of an inner layer of a complicated scale. A sequence of surface reactions starting with the adsorption of oxygen on the surface was applied to experimental data from Donnelly’s research group who reported the adsorption of O 2 in a plasma atmosphere as a function of power. In addition to the adsorbed oxygen (Oad) as the rate determining step, it controlled the cascading reaction sequence of the adsorbed species of AlO, AlO 2 and AlO 3 , as indicated in the present study. The rate of oxygen adsorption also depends on the ratio of the final to initial adsorbed oxygen as a function the oxygen potential. In a secondary research thrust, Ti 3 AlC was synthesized and subsequently oxidized. A 39Ti-14Al-47TiC (in wt%) mixture was equilibrated by using a pseudo-isopiestic technique to form ultimately an aggregate of Ti3AlC, Ti 2 AlC and TiC phases. The aggregate was primarily composed of Ti 3 AlC with minor amounts of Ti 2 AlC and TiC, as determined by an X-ray diffraction analysis. The Ti 3 AlC/Ti 2 AlC/TiC aggregate was subsequently oxidized at 1873 K to form a scale composed of an outer layer of Al 2 O 3 -TiO 2 -Al 2 TiO 5 with an inner layer consisting of TiO-Al 2 O 3 - Al 4 CO 3 . The measured scale thickness grew according to Wagner’s parabolic growth rate, which estimates an effective diffusion coefficient of 6 (10)-8 cm 2 /s. The scale appears to grow with Ti ions migrating outward from the Ti 3 AlC/Ti 2 AlC/TiC core and oxygen ions diffusing inwardly toward the core. The transient temperature distribution of a cylindrical, carbide packed bed (i.e., B4C) was simulated with COMSOL software to determine the response of the bed to a sudden temperature spike exposed to the outer wall of the bed. The temperature distribution of B4C was similarly heated and compared with Hf and Zr metal. The thermal conductivity of Hf and Zr is higher than the B4C packed bed and hence they respond quicker than B4C. The packed bed still takes approximately 1200 s to plateau the temperature distribution between the cylinder surfaces to the centerline of the carbide packed bed of 5 cm diameter. Though the modeling of the distributions in the carbide packed bed gives an understanding of the transient heat response behavior driven by radiation, the effect of the plasma on the surface temperature of individual carbide particles needs further investigation to understand the plasma contribution to densification of a carbide packed bed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Automating linear accelerator quality assurance

Purpose: The purpose of this study was 2-fold. One purpose was to develop an automated, streamlined quality assurance (QA) program for use by multiple centers. The second purpose was to evaluate machine performance over time for multiple centers using linear accelerator (Linac) log files and electronic portal images. The authors sought to evaluate variations in Linac performance to establish as a reference for other centers. Methods: The authors developed analytical software tools for a QA program using both log files and electronic portal imaging device (EPID) measurements. The first tool is a general analysis tool which can read and visually represent data in the log file. This tool, which can be used to automatically analyze patient treatment or QA log files, examines the files for Linac deviations which exceed thresholds. The second set of tools consists of a test suite of QA fields, a standard phantom, and software to collect information from the log files on deviations from the expected values. The test suite was designed to focus on the mechanical tests of the Linac to include jaw, MLC, and collimator positions during static, IMRT, and volumetric modulated arc therapy delivery. A consortium of eight institutions delivered the test suite at monthly or weekly intervals on each Linac using a standard phantom. The behavior of various components was analyzed for eight TrueBeam Linacs. Results: For the EPID and trajectory log file analysis, all observed deviations which exceeded established thresholds for Linac behavior resulted in a beam hold off. In the absence of an interlock-triggering event, the maximum observed log file deviations between the expected and actual component positions (such as MLC leaves) varied from less than 1% to 26% of published tolerance thresholds. The maximum and standard deviations of the variations due to gantry sag, collimator angle, jaw position, and MLC positions are presented. Gantry sag among Linacs was 0.336 ± 0.072 mm. The standard deviation in MLC position, as determined by EPID measurements, across the consortium was 0.33 mm for IMRT fields. With respect to the log files, the deviations between expected and actual positions for parameters were small (<0.12 mm) for all Linacs. Considering both log files and EPID measurements, all parameters were well within published tolerance values. Variations in collimator angle, MLC position, and gantry sag were also evaluated for all Linacs. Conclusions: The performance of the TrueBeam Linac model was shown to be consistent based on automated analysis of trajectory log files and EPID images acquired during delivery of a standardized test suite. The results can be compared directly to tolerance thresholds. In addition, sharing of results from standard tests across institutions can facilitate the identification of QA process and Linac changes. These reference values are presented along with the standard deviation for common tests so that the test suite can be used by other centers to evaluate their Linac performance against those in this consortium.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Best-estimate plus uncertainty thermal-hydraulic stability analysis of BWRs using TRACG code

Over the last decade, Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) power up-rates have increased plant rated power output significantly. Subsequent projects have expanded flow domains (e.g. MELLLA+) for operation at these higher power levels. This has resulted in an increase in the power to flow ratio in regions susceptible to reactor thermal-hydraulic instabilities. Since BWRs are susceptible to coupled thermal-hydraulic/nuclear oscillations when operating at these conditions, such oscillations must be prevented or reliably detected and suppressed. The Detect and Suppress Solution - Confirmation Density (DSS-CD) is the most sophisticated GEH BWR instability protection system ever employed. DSS-CD implements algorithms that monitor closely-spaced groups of Local Power Range Monitor (LPRM) detectors to detect periodic behavior typical of reactor instability events. This system is able to detect small, localized power variations in the core, distinguish between true instabilities and plant noise, and trip/scram the reactor while maintaining adequate safety margins. The combination of hardware, software, and system setpoints provides protection against violation of the Safety Limit Minimum Critical Power Ratio (SLMCPR) for anticipated oscillations. To support DSS-CD implementation, the TRACG system code is used to simulate events to confirm the capability of the DSS-CD solution for early oscillation detection and suppression. TRACG is a GEH proprietary version of the Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC). TRACG includes a multi-dimensional, two-fluid model for the reactor thermal-hydraulics and a three-dimensional reactor kinetics model. The models are qualified to simulate a large variety of tests and reactor configurations, including thermal-hydraulic stability events. These features allow for detailed, best-estimate simulation of a wide range of BWR phenomena. A set of integrated TRACG event simulations for reasonably limiting anticipated events can be used to calculate the effect on the Minimum Critical Power Ratio (MCPR) performance. The purpose of the DSS-CD TRACG analysis is to confirm the inherent MCPR margin afforded by the solution design. This paper presents the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) DSS-CD TRACG methodology and its application to BWR Thermal-Hydraulic (T-H) stability analyses. The statistical Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology (defined in NUREG/CR-5249) is used to calculate the MCPR uncertainty. The TRACG simulation includes a full core individual bundle model in which each fuel bundle is modeled as an individual T-H channel. The complete CSAU analysis of full core individual bundle model is an innovative solution represents the state-of-the-art stability analysis of BWRs and is the first ever full statistical analysis for stability safety analyses. The adoption of BEPU methodologies for stability analyses advances the understanding of the associated physical phenomena and maintains the safety of reactor plant operation in expanded operation domain with up-rated power. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Reactivity Feedback Modeling in SAM

System Analysis Module (SAM) is being developed at Argonne National Laboratory as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. This report presents the development of Point-Kinetics modeling and reactivity feedback mechanisms in SAM. It also presents a new capability for predicting the thermal expansion in various structural components by coupling SAM with an external thermomechanics module (Tensor Mechanics) from the MOOSE framework. The analysis of the transient behavior of a nuclear reactor requires the coupled simulation of reactor kinetics and thermal-hydraulics of the reactor core, especially for those unprotected transients where the reactor scram system may not function properly. The point kinetics model has been widely used for reactor safety analysis due to its simplicity to capture the transient behavior of the reactor. Various reactivity feedback models have been developed and integrated with the Point-Kinetics module, including fuel axial expansion, core radial expansion, fuel Doppler, and coolant density reactivity. The reactivity feedback models in SAM are similar to the respective models used in SAS4A/SASSYS-1. This report first presents the brief theory of the Point-Kinetics module and reactivity feedback models. A number of verification tests have been performed where the code simulations are compared to the analytical model results. The reactivity feedback due to the thermal deformation, such as the fuel axial expansion and core radial expansion, is important for SFR transient analysis. Simplified thermal expansion models for the fuel pin and reactor constrain system (e.g. grid plate) are developed and verified in SAM. Additionally, a coupling interface is developed to couple SAM with external thermomechanical analysis modules for more accurate predictions of the thermal expansion of different components during the transients. The current coupling interface has been tested with the Tensor Mechanics module from MOOSE. These point kinetics and reactivity feedback modeling capabilities have also been demonstrated by simulating the early stage of the unprotected loss-of-flow (ULOF) accident in the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR). Both the stand-alone SAM and coupled SAM and Tensor Mechanics simulations are performed. It is confirmed that the major physics phenomena in the heat transport system of the ABTR reactor are captured by SAM, and the point kinetics model, reactivity feedback models, and the coupling schemes are working well as expected.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fiscal Year 2023 Software Quality Assurance Activities for the ARC Software

The Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software suite [1-17] has been developed by Argonne researchers for fast reactor design and analysis since the 1970s. With the ARC software suite, a user can quickly build a model of a proposed or existing fast spectrum reactor and carry out fuel cycle, nominal thermal analysis and flow requirements, and assess, as is appropriate, whether the core design and constraint system yield an acceptable mechanical behavior. For transient reactor analysis with SAS4A [18], the ARC software suite can be used to generate reactivity coefficients and kinetics parameters at any modeled fuel cycle time point which forms part of the input to SAS4A. The ARC suite was consistently being developed until the 1990s and followed a software QA program which was an appropriate standard for the time. In the 1990s, the DOE funding to fast reactor research and development was all but eliminated and the ARC software was put into maintenance mode. In the early 2000s, the software quality assurance (SQA) program for ARC was still in place to define an official version, but by 2005 it all but was abandoned as there were insufficient staff to fill the work roles. Since 2005, there has been a considerable increase in research and design work on fast spectrum reactors. The ARC software as a whole has since been exported to many universities and commercial companies and ANL support has been given to the various projects over the years [19-23]. Further, MC 2 -3, PERSENT, and DASSH were all developed after 2005 without any adherence to a software standard. In recent time, the DOE VTR project [22] paid for verification work to be done on the ARC software as part of the goal of making it NQA-1 complaint. The VTR project was not considered the appropriate pathway to fund and maintain a SQA program for the ARC software and while software developments (DASSH) were made and several manuals were updated and software verification work was carried out, the ARC software is not NQA-1 compliant. More recently the Advanced Reactor Development Program (ARDP [23]) has funded the creation of manuals for some ARC utility programs and funded additional software verification work on DIF3D [6, 7] and MC 2 -3 [2-5] for the purpose of commercial grade dedication. Because of the VTR and ARDP projects, software verification work was completed on MC 2 -3 and DIF3D, and detailed reports were created for each piece of software, which discuss the inputs and outputs from the codes that are covered by the verification work and link various analytic, code-to-code, and hand calculation based verification work presented in the report with verification test problems provided with the software. This is a key part of the commercial grade dedication work and constitutes the bulk of the cost to get the ARC software to commercial grade. The ARC software suite is a valuable asset as a fast reactor design and analysis tool set that has been reasonably well verified and validated with various fast reactor benchmark problems and experiments over decades. Some or all of the ARC software suite has been utilized for designing the IFR [20], PGSFR [21], VTR [22], and Natrium [23] reactors and we can expect it to continue to be used for advanced fast reactor design and/or confirmatory calculation purposes in the future. Due to increased interest by commercial companies and regulatory bodies, it is becoming more important to make the ARC software suite complete and ready-to-use in terms of its SQA pedigree and commercial grade dedication needs. This report discusses the achievements made towards building a new SQA program for the ARC software and dealing with outstanding identified QA gaps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Subtask 1.1 – Advanced Characterization of Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs to Enhance CO2 Storage Resource Estimates

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) developed methods and approaches for advanced characterization of unconventional oil and gas reservoirs to enhance CO2 storage resource estimates using samples collected from organic-rich shales of the Bakken Formation. The project was funded under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, with nonfederal cost share provided by Hitachi High Technologies America. The project participants included the EERC, Hitachi High Technologies America, the team at the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL’s) computed tomography (CT) scanning laboratory in Morgantown, West Virginia, and several NETL staff who have worked on CO2 storage resource estimation. Investigations on the use of subsurface geologic formations for CO2 storage have been ongoing for many years. In the last decade, improvements in directional drilling technology and hydraulic fracturing of organic-rich shale and other tight rock formations have opened new opportunities for CO2 storage, with the potential cobenefit of enhancing gas and oil recovery. Gas-bearing, organic-rich shales have been of particular interest as a carbon storage target because their ability to store large volumes of CO2 is implied by their ability to store methane; however, estimating the CO2 storage resource of organic-rich shales and other unconventional reservoirs is challenging because of the lack of detailed geologic and petrophysical data that are needed to develop improved volumetric equations. According to NETL’s method for estimating regional-scale CO2 storage resources, the key factors that control CO2 storage in geologic formations include void space within induced fractures, natural fractures and matrix pores, as well as the occurrence and distribution of organic matter (OM) and clay minerals. A key goal of this effort was to use field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) analysis of fine-grain unconventional reservoir rocks coupled with advanced image analysis and machine learning techniques to quantify the occurrence and distribution of porosity, OM, and clay minerals. By better understanding the potential migration pathways of CO2 within tight rocks and quantifying the occurrence of sorptive components (OM and clays) along potential flow pathways, methods to estimate the CO2 storage resource of such rocks can be refined. The Bakken petroleum system (Bakken) was used as the source of rock samples for this effort because it includes organic-rich shales with contrasting degrees of thermal maturity as well as tight, nonshale clastic rocks with varying clay mineral content. To better understand the key components of interest in tight rock samples, the EERC worked closely with Hitachi to optimize the FESEM settings necessary to resolve the sample mineralogy, porosity and OM content at micro- to nanoscale resolution. The EERC also worked closely with Hitachi to apply and improve its advanced mineral identification and characterization system (AMICS) software so that it is better suited for mineral identification at the high resolution necessary to resolve features of interest in fine-grained rocks such as organic-rich shales. The EERC also applied advanced image analysis software packages, including Ilastik, to classify and quantify the key components of interest within the samples using FESEM imagery. These advanced techniques allowed for quantification and differentiation of the void space within fractures, pores and OM, as well as a technique to determine and quantify the key mineral and OM components surrounding pore spaces. Being able to better quantify the void space and the potential accessibility of CO2 to sorptive minerals or OM within tight rocks allows for improved estimation of the CO2 storage resource potential of organic-rich shales and other unconventional formations. The information derived from the image analysis techniques was used to refine NETL’s method for estimating regional-scale CO2 storage resources in collaboration with staff from NETL. An additional goal of this work was to better understand rates of CO2 permeation, flow pathways, and sorption in organic-rich shales and nonshale reservoir rocks and to evaluate potential changes in CO2 flow over time. The EERC conducted long-duration (several weeks) CO2 flow-through testing at reservoir conditions using Bakken shale and nonshale samples to assess CO2 permeation rates and retention/sorption within core plugs to represent bulk matrix behavior. Conventional isothermal adsorption testing over a range of pressure conditions was also performed on pulverized Bakken samples to better assess potential maximum sorptive capacity of the samples. The results of this testing illustrated the higher sorptive capacity of the Bakken shales when compared to the sorptive capacity of the nonshale reservoir rock, which contains very little OM when compared to the Bakken shales. The results also illustrate the differences in permeation behavior as a function of fracture flow versus matrix flow. In an attempt to visualize CO2 permeation and flow behavior in Bakken shale samples over time, the EERC collaborated with NETL’s CT Lab in Morgantown, West Virginia. A variety of tests were performed at the NETL lab on unfractured and fractured samples of the Bakken shale. The unfractured Bakken shale samples did not result in CO2 migration within the samples over the testing duration; thus imagery of CO2 migration pathways within the matrix of Bakken samples was not obtained. The results of the flow-through testing within fractured samples illustrate changes in CO2 permeation rates over time, with a trend of decreasing CO2 flow over time. The results of this effort suggest that FESEM analysis coupled with advanced image analysis and machine learning techniques are effective in characterizing and quantifying the mineralogy, porosity, fractures, and OM content of 2-D imagery at the high resolution needed to identify features of interest in tight rocks. In addition, the image analysis techniques allow for identification and quantification of different porosity types as well as the key mineral components and/or OM that CO2 would contact in the reservoir as it migrates through pores and fracture networks. This is key information needed to better estimate the CO2 storage resource potential of organic-rich shales and other tight reservoirs. Additional work is needed to determine the sorptive capacity of the individual sample components (OM and clay minerals) at reservoir conditions so that this approach and the refined CO2 storage resource equation can be applied to other shale and unconventional reservoirs. In addition, subsequent work should be performed to better understand the number of images needed to use stereological approaches to estimate the volume of sample components using 2-D imagery, to explore machine learning techniques to differentiate between induced vs. natural fractures, and to estimate the connectivity of pores and fracture networks using 2-D imagery. Being able to derive this information at the microscale would facilitate scaling up of the sample characterization data used for reservoir modeling and simulation to estimate the CO2 storage resource potential of tight formations.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Traffic Control via Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs): An Open-Road Field Experiment with 100 CAVs

The CIRCLES project aims to reduce instabilities in traffic flow, which are naturally occurring phenomena due to human driving behavior. Also called “phantom jams” or “stop-and-go waves,” these instabilities are a significant source of wasted energy. Toward this goal, the CIRCLES project designed a control system, referred to as the MegaController by the CIRCLES team, that could be deployed in real traffic. Our field experiment, the MegaVanderTest (MVT), leveraged a heterogeneous fleet of 100 longitudinally controlled vehicles as Lagrangian traffic actuators, each of which ran a controller with the architecture described in this article. The MegaController is a hierarchical control architecture that consists of two main layers. The upper layer is called the Speed Planner and is a centralized optimal control algorithm. It assigns speed targets to the vehicles, conveyed through the LTE cellular network. The lower layer is a control layer, running on each vehicle. It performs local actuation by overriding the stock adaptive cruise controller, using the stock onboard sensors. The Speed Planner ingests live data feeds provided by third parties as well as data from our own control vehicles and uses both to perform the speed assignment. The architecture of the Speed Planner allows for the modular use of standard control techniques, such as optimal control, model predictive control (MPC), kernel methods, and others. The architecture of the local controller allows for the flexible implementation of local controllers. Corresponding techniques include deep reinforcement learning (RL), MPC, and explicit controllers. Depending on the vehicle architecture, all onboard sensing data can be accessed by the local controllers or only some. Likewise, control inputs vary across different automakers, with inputs ranging from torque or acceleration requests for some cars to electronic selection of adaptive cruise control (ACC) setpoints in others. The proposed architecture technically allows for the combination of all possible settings proposed previously, that is {Speed Planner algorithms} × {local Vehicle Controller algorithms} × {full or partial sensing} × {torque or speed control}. As a result, most configurations were tested throughout the ramp up to the MegaVandertest (MVT).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2012

Presentation of FP7 matter project: general overview

The 2010-2012 implementation plan of the European Sustainable Nuclear Industrial Initiative (ESNII), prepared in the frame of the Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform (SNETP), establishes a very tight time schedule for the start of construction of the European Gen IV prototypes; namely the construction of the LFR ETPP (European Technology Pilot Plant) MYRRHA will start in 2014 and that of the SFR Prototype ASTRID will start in 2017. The GEN IV reactors pose new challenges to the designers and scientists in terms of higher operating temperature, higher fuel burn-up, and in some cases more corrosive environment with respect to the present technologies and which impacts the materials performance. In this frame, the MATTER (Materials Testing and Rules) Project starts well targeted R and D activities to perform careful materials studies in GEN IV operational conditions and to find out criteria for the correct use of these materials in relevant reactor applications. Aim of the MATTER Project (that involved 27 partners and will end in 2015) is to complement the materials researches, in the frame of the European Energy Research Alliance (EERA) guidelines, with the implementation of pre-normative rules. The MATTER Project is divided in 3 technical Domains (called DM): DM1 - Development of test and evaluation guidelines for structural materials: to develop/establish best practice guidelines for testing and evaluation procedures, which are aimed to screen and characterize nuclear materials for innovative nuclear systems. DM2 - Pre-normative R and D for Codes and Standards: Pre-normative activities are performed, comprehensive of experiments, to revise and update the design rules (with an EU level consensus) in order to answer to some short term needs of the two projects ASTRID and MYRRHA with respect to the design and the construction of structural components. DM3 - Joint Program Scheme, implementation and Priorities: to optimise the effectiveness and efficiency of the EERA Joint Program on nuclear materials for innovative reactors and to support specific research activities related to fundamental understanding of ODS steels fabrication. ODS steels are considered candidate materials, in the medium-long term, for high fuel burn-up cladding application. After a brief presentation of DM1 and DM3, this paper mainly focuses on description of Pre-normative R and D activities for Codes and Standards (DM2). (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Case Study: Nuclear-Renewable-Water Integration in Arizona

This document reports the application of the N-R HES software framework to a case study for Arizona Public Service (APS); the manager and part owner of the Palo Verde (PV) nuclear power plant. The case study is a work in progress of which this report presents a detailed description of the current model input data, assumptions and the corresponding results produced by the developed software framework. The goal of the report is, that with this information APS (together with INL) should be able to identify where more detailed data and more accurate model assumptions are necessary to reproduce all driving physical and economic phenomena in order to capture enough complexity of the reality to allow APS to use the results for their strategic decisions. The N-R HES software framework started being developed at INL two years ago [ref]. The framework has reached some level of maturity so that it can be applied to more than simple demonstration cases, e.g. real industry problems. Nevertheless, more capabilities are constantly added to accommodate the special needs of these challenging real life problems. The N-R HES framework is built on top of the RAVEN code [ref] and uses it as driver and workflow manager for all calculations. The framework has specifically been developed for the economic assessment of N-R HES systems. There are four main cornerstones of the N-R HES simulation framework: 1) generation of stochastic time series, 2) a probabilistic analysis and optimization set of algorithms available in RAVEN, 3) a set of models for representation of the physical behavior of N-R HES, and 4) a RAVEN plug-in that maps physical performance into economic performance called CashFlow. Within this framework, a broad spectrum of questions related to N-R HES can be addressed. One of the challenges currently of high interest is that the increasing penetration of variable renewables is altering the profile of the net demand (demand after removing all non curtailable renewable energy sources), with which the other generators on the grid have to cope. The N-R HES software framework is capable to analyze the potential feasibility of mitigating the resultant volatility in the net electricity demand. One possible solution to that problem currently intensively studied by the energy industry is adding stabilizing loads to the grid. These loads can be external industrial processes that are able to ramp production up and down quickly or adding variable internal loads that will lift the base load of the power plant. The latter is a possible solution currently studied by APS. APS if currently anticipating several challenges that will likely arise in the near future. One of them is, as mentioned, coping with the rapid growth of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources put on the grid. Although APS can sell its electricity for a fixed retail price to cover the local demand first, it also sells electricity in excess of the local demand at the Palo Verde energy hub. Due to the growing VRE penetration, the Palo Verde hub electricity spot price is negative more and more frequently. To mitigate this price volatility, APS is seeking to add more base load, so that the quantity of excess energy to be sold for prices potentially less than the internal retail price or even negative prices at the hub is reduced. A second challenge APS is facing is that their cooling water acquisition contract with the Sub Regional Operating Group (SROG) will expire soon and a renewal can only be done for a significantly higher price of the water. Therefore, APS is also seeking for alternative sources for their cooling water. An opportunity currently under investigation is to pump a limited quantity of brackish water from the regional ground water. Although much cheaper than the water from the new SROG contract, the salinity of the brackish water is so high that a blend of brackish and SROG water would need additional treatment to improve its quality for use in the cooling towers. An on-site reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plant is envisaged to reduce the salinity to an acceptable level. This report investigates the economic impact of such an RO plant. As one can see, the RO plant would help with both problems APS is facing: First, it would rise the APS base load helping to mitigate VRE induced hub price volatility. From this perspective, the RO plant can be seen as a stabilizing load on the grid as would be any other industrial process. Second, the RO’s goods, e.g. the clean water produced can be used by APS itself for a (hopefully) lower cost than 100% SROG water would be. The report will first describe the APS water procurement strategy in detail and lay out the possible alternative scenarios studied in this document. This is covered in Chapter 2. Next, in Chapter 3, the APS case model developed within the N-R HES software framework is described. This chapter includes also a description of the needed framework developments to accommodate the APS study.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Exe-Guard Project

The exe-Guard Project is an alliance between Dominion Virginia Power (DVP), Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Dartmouth University, and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories (SEL). SEL is primary recipient on this project. The exe-Guard project was selected for award under DE-FOA-0000359 with CFDA number 81.122 to address Topic Area of Interest 4: Hardened platforms and Systems. The exe-Guard project developed an antivirus solution for control system embedded devices to prevent the execution of unauthorized code and maintain settings and configuration integrity. This project created a white list antivirus solution for control systems capable of running on embedded Linux® operating systems. White list antivirus methods allow only credible programs to run through the use of digital signatures and hash functions. Once a system’s secure state is baselined, white list antivirus software denies deviations from that state because of the installation of malicious code as this changes hash results. Black list antivirus software has been effective in traditional IT environments but has negative implications for control systems. Black list antivirus uses pattern matching and behavioral analysis to identify system threats while relying on regular updates to the signature file and recurrent system scanning. Black list antivirus is vulnerable to zero day exploits which have not yet been incorporated into a signature file update. System scans hamper the performance of high availability applications, as revealed in NIST special publication 1058 which summarizes the impact of blacklist antivirus on control systems: Manual or “on-demand” scanning has a major effect on control processes in that they take CPU time needed by the control process (Sometimes close to 100% of CPU time). Minimizing the antivirus software throttle setting will reduce but not eliminate this effect. Signature updates can also take up to 100% of CPU time, but for a much shorter period than a typical manual scanning process. Control systems are vulnerable to performance losses if off-the-shelf blacklist antivirus solutions aren’t implemented with care. This investment in configuration in addition to constant decommissioning to perform manual signature file updates is unprecedented and impractical. Additionally, control systems are often disconnected or islanded from the network making the delivery of signature updates difficult. Exe-Guard project developed a white list antivirus solution that mitigated the above drawbacks and allows control systems to cost-effectively apply malware protection while maintaining high reliability. The application of security patches can also be minimized since white listing maintains constant defense against unauthorized code execution. Security patches can instead be applied in less frequent intervals where system decommissioning can be scheduled and planned for. Since control systems are less dynamic than IT environments, the feasibility of maintaining a secure baselined state is more practical. Because upgrades are performed in infrequent, calculated intervals, it allows a new security baseline to be established before the system is returned to service. Exe-Guard built on the efforts of SNL under the Code Seal project. SNL demonstrated prototype Trust Anchors on the project which are independent monitoring and control devices that can be integrated into untrustworthy components. The exe-Guard team started with the lessons learned under this project then designed commercial solution for white list malware protection. Malware is a real threat, even on islanded or un-networked installations, since operators can unintentionally install infected files, plug in infected mass storage devices, or infect a piece of equipment on the islanded local area network that can then spread to other connected equipment. Protection at the device level is one of the last layers of defense in a security-in-depth defense model before an asset becomes compromised. This project provided non-destructive intrusion, isolation and automated response solution, achieving a goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Roadmap to Secure Control Systems. It also addressed CIP-007-R4 which requires asset owners to employ malicious software prevention tools on assets within the electronic security perimeter. In addition, the CIP-007-R3 requirement for security patch management is minimized because white listing narrows the impact of vulnerabilities and patch releases. The exe-Guard Project completed all tasks identified in the statement of project objective and identified additional tasks within scope that were performed and completed within the original budget. The cost share was met and all deliverables were successfully completed and submitted on time. Most importantly the technology developed and commercialized under this project has been adopted by the Energy sector and thousands of devices with exe-Guard technology integrated in them have now been deployed and are protecting our power systems today

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2011

Investigations on Repository Near-Field Thermal Modeling - Repository Science/Thermal Load Management & Design Concepts (M41UF033302)

The various layers of material from the waste package (such as components of the engineered barrier system and the host rock surface) to a given distance within the rock wall at a given distance can be described as concentric circles with varying thermal properties (see Figure 5.1-1). The selected model approach examines the contributions of the waste package, axial waste package neighbors and lateral neighboring emplacement drifts (see Section 5.2.1 and Appendix H, Section 2). In clay and deep borehole media, the peak temperature is driven by the central waste package whereas, in granite and salt, the contribution to the temperature rise by adjacent (lateral) waste packages in drift or emplacement borehole lines is dominant at the time of the peak temperature. Mathematical models generated using Mathcad software provide insight into the effects of changing waste package spacing for six waste forms, namely UOX, MOX, co-extraction, new extraction, E-Chem ceramic and E-Chem metal in four different geologic media (granite, clay, salt and deep borehole). Each scenario includes thermal conductivity and diffusivity for each layer between the waste package and the host rock, dimensions of representative repository designs (such as waste package spacing, drift or emplacement borehole spacing, waste package dimensions and layer thickness), and decay heat curves generated from knowledge of the contents of a given waste form after 10, 50, 100 and 200 years of surface storage. Key results generated for each scenario include rock temperature at a given time calculated at a given radius from the central waste package (Section 5.2.1 and Appendix H, Section 3), the corresponding temperature at the interface of the waste package and EBS material, and at each EBS layer in between (Section 5.2.2 and Appendix H, Section 4). This information is vital to understand the implications of repository design (waste package capacity, surface storage time, waste package spacing, and emplacement drift or borehole spacing) by comparing the peak temperature to the thermal limits of the concentric layers surrounding the waste package; specifically 100 C for the bentonite buffer in granite and clay repositories, 100 C for rock wall in a clay repository and 200 C at the rock wall for a salt repository. These thermal limits are both preliminary and approximate, and serve as a means to evaluate design options rather than determining compliance for licensing situations. The thermal behavior of a salt repository is more difficult to model because it is not a concentric geometry and because the crushed salt backfill initially has a much higher thermal resistance than intact salt. Three models were investigated, namely a waste package in complete contact with crushed salt, secondly a waste package in contact with intact salt, and thirdly a waste package in contact with 75% intact and 25% crushed salt. The latter model best depicts emplacement of a waste package in the corner of an intact salt alcove and subsequently covered with crushed salt backfill to the angle of repose. The most conservative model (crushed salt) had temperatures much higher than the other models and although bounding, is too conservative to use. The most realistic model (75/25) had only a small temperature difference from the simplest (non-conservative, intact salt) model, and is the one chosen in this report (see Section 5.2.3). A trade-study investigating three key variables (surface storage time, waste package capacity and waste package spacing) is important to understand and design a repository. Waste package heat can be reduced by storing for longer periods prior to emplacement, or by reducing the number of assemblies or canisters within that waste package. Waste package spacing can be altered to optimize the thermal load without exceeding the thermal limits of the host rock or EBS components. By examining each of these variables, repository footprint (and therefore cost) can be optimized. For this report, the layout was fixed for each geologic medium based on prior published designs in the international community, but it will be varied in future work. Section 5.2.4 summarizes the conclusions based on varying two of the three parameters (storage time and waste package capacity), and the results are shown in Appendix H, Sections 5 and 6.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗