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DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage↗

DOE OSTI2024

A survey on checkpointing strategies: Should we always checkpoint à la Young/Daly?

The Young/Daly formula provides an approximation of the optimal checkpointing period for a parallel application executing on a supercomputing platform. It was originally designed to handle fail-stop errors for preemptible tightly-coupled applications, but has been extended to other application and resilience frameworks. Here, we provide some background and survey various scenarios to assess the usefulness and limitations of the formula, both for preemptible applications and workflow applications represented as a graph of tasks. We also discuss scenarios with uncertainties, and extend the study to silent errors. We exhibit cases where the optimal period is of a different order than that dictated by the Young/Daly formula, and finally we explain how checkpointing can be further combined with replication.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Traffic Signal Optimization by Integrating Reinforcement Learning and Digital Twins

Machine learning (ML) methods, especially reinforcement learning (RL), have been widely considered for traffic signal optimization in intelligent transportation systems. Most of these ML methods are centralized, lacking in scalability and adaptability in large traffic networks. Further, it is challenging to train such ML models due to the lack of training platforms and/or the cost of deploying and training in a real traffic networks. This paper presents an approach for the integration of decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin (DT) to optimize traffic signals for the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption related to stopping. Specifically, the DGMARL agents learn traffic state patterns and make decisions regarding traffic signal control with assistance from a Digital Twin module, which simulates and replicates the traffic behaviors of a real traffic network. The proposed approach was evaluated using PTV-Vissim [1], a microscopic traffic simulation platform. PTV-Vissim is also the simulation engine of the DT, enabling emulation and optimization of the traffic signals on the MLK Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Compared to an actuated signal control baseline approach, experiment results show that Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the impact of stops on fuel consumption, was reduced by 44.27% in a 24-hour and an average of 29.88% in a PM-peak-hour scenario.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning, Digital Twin, ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Manufacturing Full-Scale High Gradient Copper Accelerators: Electron Beam Welding and Allied Processes

This DOE ARDAP-funded study examines the technical and business feasibility of manufacturing high-gradient normal conducting RF (NCRF) copper accelerating structures using electron beam welding (EBW) instead of conventional high-temperature brazing. The core motivation is material performance: brazing softens copper significantly, while hard copper alloys have demonstrated ~75% higher operational gradients in SLAC tests, making cold-joining techniques highly attractive. EBW, applied to split-cell (half or quadrant) structure designs, preserves copper hardness away from the weld joint and simplifies machining — but industrial process optimization remains immature and a substantial learning curve is expected. The business case was modeled for two scenarios: a greenfield EBW linac company (> $10M upfront costs, viable above ~30 units/year) and an EBW division added to an existing accelerator firm to reduce risk and upfront costs, at the expense of being less optimal structure for the higher volume production. The study concludes that without a significant increase in demand, private investment alone cannot sustain this capability, and recommends federal support through R&D grants, procurement incentives, and CAPEX cost-sharing to incubate domestic EBW-NCRF manufacturing — with the existing-company model.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-tool optimization for computer controlled optical surfacing

With the rapid development of precision technologies, the demand of high-precision optical surfaces has drastically increased. These optical surfaces are mainly fabricated with computer controlled optical surfacing (CCOS). In a CCOS process, a target surface removal profile is achieved by scheduling the dwell time for a set of machine tools. The optimized dwell time should be positive and smooth to ensure convergence to the target while considering CNC dynamics. The total run time of each machine tool is also expected to be balanced to improve the overall processing efficiency. In the past few decades, dwell time optimization for a single machine tool has been extensively developed. While the methods are applicable to multi-tool scenarios, they fail to consider the overall contributions of multiple tools simultaneously. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study on the strategies for multi-tool dwell time optimization and propose an innovative method for simultaneously scheduling dwell time for multiple tools for the first time. First, the influential factors to the positiveness and smoothness of dwell time solutions for a single machine tool are analyzed. The compensation strategies that minimize the residual while considering the CNC dynamics limit are then proposed. Afterwards, these strategies are extended to the proposed multi-tool optimization that further balances the run time of machine tools. Finally, the superiority of each strategy is carefully studied via simulation and experiment. The experiment is performed by bonnet polishing a 60 mm × 60 mm mirror with three tools of different diameters ( i.e., 12 mm, 8 mm, and 5 mm). The figure error of the mirror is reduced from 45.42 nm to 11.18 nm root mean square in 13.28 min. Moreover, the measured polishing result well coincides with the estimation, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant: Preprint

A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.

BESS scheduling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Robust Trajectory Optimization for Guided Powered Descent and Landing

A robust trajectory optimization approach for guidance algorithm gain selection for powered descent and landing is developed. This approach uses a genetic algorithm to determine optimal guidance algorithm parameters while incorporating uncertainty information from linear covariance analysis. The optimal guidance algorithm parameters are determined while accounting for environment, navigation, and vehicle property uncertainty and sensor suite fidelity. As a demonstration of this method, the optimal gains for the fractional polynomial powered descent guidance are found for the braking phase of a robotic lunar landing mission. Scenarios with differing sensor suites and sensor qualities are considered, with objective functions to minimize variability in propellant usage or terminal position. Results show that the optimal guidance algorithm gains for a given trajectory differ based on the sensor suite, and optimal guidance algorithm gains may result in up to 20% performance improvements over the baseline in propellant usage and landed accuracy.

Grace E Calkins↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing the physical design and layout of a resilient wind, solar, and storage hybrid power plant

We report as wind and solar technologies improve and their costs decrease, the share of power produced by these sources will increase. As the market penetration increases, these power sources will need to provide grid services, such as dispatchability, in addition to providing energy. One way to reduce variability, provide higher quality power to the grid, and address local grid stability issues is through colocating wind and solar power plants. In addition to operating reliably during normal operating conditions, in scenarios with high penetrations of renewable generation, it is important that these hybrid plants can withstand production disruptions and continue to supply power despite prolonged resource reduction, extreme weather events, or other disruptions. In this paper, we present a methodology to optimize a wind-solar-battery hybrid power plant down to the component level that is resilient against production disruptions and that can continually produce some minimum required power. We introduce the models and assumptions we used to simulate a hybrid power plant as well as the design variable parameterization and specific methods we used to optimize the plant. We demonstrate the performance of our method by comparing a plant optimized for different objectives, generation outage durations, minimum power requirements, and power purchase agreements. Although the plant design is sensitive to model parameters and various other assumptions, our results demonstrate some of the optimal designs that occur in different scenarios and what one should expect when designing a hybrid wind-solar-storage power plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Elephants Sharing the Highway: Studying TCP Fairness in Large Transfers over High Throughput Links

Escalating bandwidth demand strains high-performance data networks, posing potential performance risks. TCP congestion control algorithms enhance reliability and optimize bandwidth usage. Network performance is influenced by factors such as AQM algorithms and router buffer size. In the context of constrained network resources, understanding how TCP flows share networks and the resulting performance impact is essential. This paper introduces insights into TCP fairness and performance involving a comparison of TCP CUBIC, Reno, Hamilton, and BBR versions 1 and 2 across real-world networks supporting high bandwidths of up to 25 Gbps. The research explores TCP behaviors with AQM algorithms like FIFO, FQ_CODEL, and RED, alongside diverse buffer sizes. Notably, findings reveal that manipulating buffers and queuing methods yields contrasting outcomes based on bandwidth. BBRv2 emerges as a superior fair algorithm, pivotal for swift transfers, particularly in scientific data scenarios. These results provide crucial guidance for future network design, ensuring equitable performance optimization.

Kiran, Mariam↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy and mobility impacts of connected autonomous vehicles with co-optimization of speed and powertrain on mixed vehicle platoons

Intersections are known to be traffic bottlenecks where a significant amount of energy consumption could be caused due to deceleration/acceleration in the presence of red signals. With an increased level of connectivity and automation of intelligent transportation systems, connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are expected to be able to proactively adjust their driving strategies subject to constraints imposed by the predicted future traffic. As a result, many potential benefits can be achieved, such as improved energy efficiency, enhanced traffic safety, among many others. Notably, the way CAVs are controlled affects the following legacy vehicles (LVs) due to complex traffic dynamics. Here, we are particularly interested in studying the energy and mobility impact of CAVs with an improved traffic prediction method on mixed vehicle platoons at various market penetration rates. Leveraging traffic prediction, CAVs are controlled with co-optimization of their speed and gear position. Specifically, a traffic prediction framework in a rolling horizon fashion is employed based upon a modified Payne–Whitham (PW) model capable of handling mixed traffic consisting of CAVs and LVs. The prediction error of the modified PW model is reduced by 53.62% compared to that of the standard PW model under test scenarios. According to the predicted traffic conditions, speed and gear position of CAVs are co-optimized with the primary goal of minimizing energy consumption when driving on a signalized arterial. The energy benefits achieved by CAVs and the impact of CAVs on LVs behind are studied comprehensively for mixed vehicle platoons. The lead LV follows a real-world speed profile collected on TH-55 in Minnesota. Numerical results show that energy benefits achieved by the vehicle platoon range from 2% to 16%, and a 1% to 5% reduction in travel time for LVs behind CAVs is also observed, at different penetration rates of CAVs in various traffic scenarios. Furthermore, it is observed that CAVs using the proposed eco-driving approach appear to have a positive impact on the LVs behind in terms of energy consumption, regardless of the driving styles of the LVs ahead.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for cyber-physical energy systems in smart commercial buildings

In recent years, there has been a growing trend toward the development of smart buildings that rely on cyber-physical systems (CPS) to optimize occupant comfort, safety, and energy efficiency. To ensure the reliable and efficient operation of CPS with designed control strategies, it is important to evaluate their performance under various scenarios before deploying them in the real world. This is where a Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed designed for studying sensor and control-related studies in smart buildings can be highly valuable. With the growing threat of cyber-attacks and physical faults targeting smart buildings, it is essential to ensure the security of building operations. A HIL testbed can emulate cyber-attack and physical fault scenarios, allowing researchers to develop and test threat detection and mitigation algorithms. This enables researchers to identify potential issues and optimize the algorithms in a safe and controlled environment before they are deployed in real-world settings, reducing the risk of failures that can negatively impact occupant comfort, safety, and energy efficiency. Therefore, this paper developed a HIL testbed designed for cyber-physical energy systems (e.g. buildings automation system (BAS)) in smart commercial buildings. The HIL testbed is comprised of a real-time building and Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) emulator using Modelica-based dynamic models, a set of BAS controllers, and a BAS computer server. The data generation capability of the HIL testbed is demonstrated by tracking normal and faulty operating data in the BAS, as well as monitoring detailed network traffic in the local BAS network. Here, this study further demonstrates the HIL testbed’s capability by conducting case studies on real-time physical fault and cyber-attack experiments using a Department of Energy (DOE) prototype commercial building. It is anticipated that the fully functional HIL testbed will be utilized for a variety of sensor and control-related studies, including but not limited to testing, developing, validating of different HVAC control strategies, fault detection & diagnosis, energy monitoring and analysis, cyber security study, etc.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing trigger-level track reconstruction for sensitivity to exotic signatures

Many compelling beyond the Standard Model scenarios predict signals that result in unconventional charged particle trajectories. Signatures for which unusual tracks are the most conspicuous feature of the event pose significant challenges for experiments at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), particularly for the trigger. This article presents a study of track-based triggers for a representative set of long-lived and unconventional signatures at the upcoming High Luminosity LHC, as well as resulting recommendations for the target parameters of a hardware-based tracking system. Scenarios studied include large multiplicities of low-p T tracks produced in a soft-unclustered-energy-pattern model, displaced leptons and anomalous prompt tracks predicted in a Supersymmetry model with long-lived staus, and displaced hadrons predicted in a Higgs portal scenario with long-lived scalars.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous control of the electron temperature and safety factor profiles in DIII-D using model-based optimal control techniques

Future tokamak power plants will likely operate using a single, well-defined plasma scenario, either in steady state or for very long pulse lengths. In order to enhance the robustness of the scenario, feedback controllers for a variety of plasma properties will be necessary to counteract any disturbances and ensure safe operation. However, only a limited set of actuators will be available to control many different quantities. Because of this, it is necessary to develop controllers that are able to regulate multiple plasma properties using a limited set of actuators. To this end, a controller has been developed for the simultaneous regulation of both the electron temperature and safety factor profiles in DIII-D. This algorithm uses a linear quadratic integral control synthesis approach based on a linearized model of the dynamics of the two profiles. Two neural network surrogate models, NubeamNet and MMMnet, are included to improve the fidelity of the model. Furthermore, the controller has been tested in simulation using COTSIM, and has demonstrated the ability to simultaneously track changes in both the electron temperature and safety factor targets, including changes in both the magnitude and the shape of the profiles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benefits of Dual Fuel Heat Pump Grid-responsive Control: A Model-based Control Optimization Approach Using Building and Equipment Co-simulation

Conventional dual fuel heat pumps lack the intelligent control mechanisms to efficiently manage the switch between heat pump and furnace, leading to sub-optimal energy usage and, in some cases, increased operating costs. To resolve this gap, this study applies optimized control on hybrid heat pumps. With a focus on equipment control strategies, we compare the performances of five spacing heating equipment, including a conventional heat pump (HP), a conventional furnace, a dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) with conventional control, a dual fuel heat pump with smart control, and a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP). While DFHP runs on either gas or electricity at any given moment, SFFHP concurrently consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. In this research, a co-simulation framework is developed by integrating a building envelope model with a physics-based heat pump simulation model to analyze the benefits of grid-responsive controls of DFHP and SFFHP. The model-based optimal controls adjust the operation of the heat pump and gas furnace based on utility price signals and marginal grid emission to minimize utility cost and CO 2 emissions for multiple climate zones, different utility tariffs, and marginal grid emission scenarios. Case studies in Chicago and Los Angeles demonstrate that SFFHP and DFHP, with model-based optimal control, can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO 2 emission. In Chicago, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP yield up to 64.7% and 61.7% utility cost reduction and up to 15.7% and 8.5% CO 2 emission reduction compared to the gas furnace. In Los Angeles, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP achieve up to 43.6% and 40.1% utility cost reduction and up to 13.8% and 14.1% CO2 emission reduction compared to conventional heat pumps. In conclusion, by leveraging the fuel flexibility nature of dual fuel heat pumps, the model-based control optimization approach makes dual fuel heat pump an attractive option for demand response programs.

Control↗

DOE OSTI2025

A sequential Attacker-Defender game for distribution systems resilience enhancement against extreme weather events

Improving distribution system resilience against frequent extreme weather events is important for reliable power system operations. Especially when dealing with events such as hurricanes that have short-term predictions, proactive pre-event preparedness plays a vital role in system resilience performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to construct pre-event resource allocation plans for system operators to cope with upcoming threats through a sequential attacker-defender game framework. The sequential attacker-defender game is designed to model the interaction between the extreme weather and the system operator. In each round of the game, the attacker and the defender sequentially update their current strategies by accounting for the opponent’s action set. The attacker model is formulated as a bi-level problem to identify the severe outage scenarios, and the defender model is formulated as a two-stage optimization problem to determine the allocation of restoration resources including mobile responsive resources and repair crews. Two scale-reduction strategies are proposed to ensure the scalability of the game scheme. Finally, case studies on the IEEE 33-bus and a 7149-node practical utility system validate the effectiveness of the proposed sequential game and the efficiency of the scale-reduction strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A life cycle assessment of e-hydrogen production using proton-exchange membrane water electrolysis coupled with desalination in Saudi Arabia

Hydrogen, considered a crucial element in the transition towards a sustainable energy future, offers the potential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Here, this study explores the viability of hydrogen production using proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) as a key driver of decarbonization within the Vision 2030 framework in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A first-of-a-kind life cycle assessment (LCA) of electrolytic hydrogen (e-hydrogen) production using PEMWE in the Kingdom is performed. As the hydrogen will be produced in a freshwater scarce region, the inclusion of water desalination processes adds an important dimension to the assessment, reflecting the local context and resource availability. Two main renewable energy scenarios are assessed: solar energy through photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy through onshore turbines. The global warming potential (GWP) results indicate a GHG emissions reduction of up to 95 % compared to the state-of-the-art steam methane reforming process if the electrolysis process is powered exclusively by renewable electricity. The scenarios powered by solar and wind energy result in 3.66 and 0.76 kg CO 2 eq/kg H 2 , respectively. The metal depletion is assessed to consider the requirement of rare materials, with a 7.19 × 10 −2 kg Cu eq/kg H 2 for the solar scenario and 2.82 × 10 −2 kg Cu eq/kg H 2 for the wind scenario. A contribution analysis reveals that the majority of emissions in both scenarios originate from the electricity used for electrolysis, with the electrolyser itself contributing minimally. The absolute impact of the water desalination process is the same in both scenarios; however, it appears more prominent in the wind-powered case due to the significantly lower overall emissions in that scenario. The findings underscore the importance of renewable energy integration and process optimization in minimizing environmental impacts and advancing the sustainability of e-hydrogen production.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Grid-Renewable Strategies for Green Steel Production under Electricity Market Uncertainty

Volatility in grid spot prices is expected to rise with climate change-driven demand pressures and the intermittency of renewable generation. This volatility poses financial risks for green hydrogen-based steel production. The Direct Reduced Iron− Electric Arc Furnace (H 2 -DRI-EAF) is a promising pathway to decarbonize steel, which accounts for ∼8% of global GHG emissions. This study assesses how increased grid spot price volatility influences the optimal sizing and operation of H2-DRIEAF plants under three operational scenarios: grid-connected, fully behind-the-meter (islanded), and mixed-mode (semi-islanded). Our analysis identifies the semi-islanded configuration as the most cost-effective solution, achieving a Levelized Cost of Steel (LCOS) 10−35% lower than sourcing energy solely from the grid. Modeling also shows hydrogen storage or selective electricity purchases at high prices (>$1000/MWh) generally outperform battery storage, except under extreme volatility. Additionally, the study explores cost reduction strategies to strengthen the economic viability and sustainability of green steel production.

Batteries↗