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At least 451 records · Page 25

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim↗

Engineering in Cyber Resilience with Cyber-Informed Engineering

Engineers have super powers to provide cybersecurity resilience with deterministic engineering solutions and to protect systems from the most catastrophic consequences that a cyber saboteur could cause. Come to this session to learn how to use engineering risk management skills to harden your engineered systems from cyberattacks. Objective 1 Identify what system functions could be digitally induced to cause undesired high-impact consequences. Objective 2 Analyze how loss or instability of digital controls in a subsystem could lead to high-impact consequences. Objective 3 Analyze how loss or instability in the digital connectivity between systems could lead to high-impact consequences. Objective 4 Identify engineering controls which could build resilience by eliminating digital loss or instability pathways or reduce the impact of digital loss or instability. This presentation will introduce Cyber-Informed Engineering, described below, and walk participants through specific engineering use cases to show how engineers can consider the potential for cyber sabotage in their existing system designs and enact deterministic engineering-based controls which eliminate pathways for attack or mitigate specific consequences. A wide variety of application use cases will be considered so that audience members can align the material with familiar engineering applications. CIE is an engineering approach that integrates cyber resilience into the conception, design, build, and operation of any physical system that has digital connectivity, sensors, monitoring, or control. CIE offers the opportunity to use engineering to eliminate or mitigate avenues for cyber attack—starting from the earliest stage of design and continuing throughout the system’s lifecycle. Today, engineers and industrial control system (ICS) technicians build engineered systems with specific goals for safety, reliability, and functionality. While systems engineering includes considerable safety and failure mode analysis, cybersecurity risks are often not specifically addressed—particularly the risks of intentional cyber compromise, exploitation, and misuse. Cyber-Informed Engineering pairs well with traditional cyber defenses and offers an extra designed-in protection to eliminate the most catastrophic consequences which can be realized by an adversary should traditional cyber defenses fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗

Evidence-Based Approach to the Analysis of Serious Decompression Sickness with Application to EVA Astronauts

It is important to understand the risk of serious hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) in order to develop procedures and treatment responses to mitigate the risk. Since it is not ethical to conduct prospective tests about serious DCS with humans, the necessary information was gathered from 73 published reports. We hypothesize that a 4-hr 100% oxygen (O2) prebreathe results in a very low risk of serious DCS, and test this through analysis. We evaluated 258 tests containing information from 79,366 exposures in attitude chambers. Serious DCS was documented in 918 men during the tests. Serious DCS are signs and symptoms broadly classified as Type II DCS. A risk function analysis with maximum likelihood optimization was performed to identify significant explanatory variables, and to create a predictive model for the probability of serious DCS [P(serious DCS)]. Useful variables were Tissue Ratio, the planned time spent at altitude (T(sub alt)), and whether or not repetitive exercise was performed at altitude. Tissue Ratio is P1N2/P2, where P1N2 is calculated nitrogen (N2) pressure in a compartment with a 180-min half-time for N2 pressure just before ascent, and P2 is ambient pressure after ascent. A prebreathe and decompression profile Shuttle astronauts use for extravehicular activity (EVA) includes a 4-hr prebreathe with 100% O2, an ascent to P2 = 4.3 lb per sq. in. absolute, and a T(sub alt) = 6 hr. The P(serious DCS) is: 0.0014 (0.00096 - 0.00196, 95% confidence interval) with exercise and 0.00025 (0.00016 - 0.00035) without exercise. Given 100 Shuttle EVAs to date and no report of serious DCS, the true risk is less than 0.03 with 95% confidence (Binomial Theorem). It is problematic to estimate the risk of serious DCS since it appears infrequently, even if the estimate is based on thousands of altitude chamber exposures. The true risk to astronauts may lie between the extremes of the confidence intervals (0.00016 - 0.00196) since the contribution of other factors, particularly exercise, to the risk of serious DCS during EVA is unknown. A simple model that only accounts for four important variables in retrospective data is still helpful to increase our understanding about the risk of serious DCS.

Conkin, Johnny↗

Data-Driven Compositional Optimization in Misspecified Regimes

With a manifold growth in the scale and intricacy of systems, the challenges of parametric misspecification become pronounced. These concerns are further exacerbated in compositional settings, which emerge in problems complicated by modeling risk and robustness. In “Data-Driven Compositional Optimization in Misspecified Regimes,” the authors consider the resolution of compositional stochastic optimization problems, plagued by parametric misspecification. In considering settings where such misspecification may be resolved via a parallel learning process, the authors develop schemes that can contend with diverse forms of risk, dynamics, and nonconvexity. They provide asymptotic and rate guarantees for unaccelerated and accelerated schemes for convex, strongly convex, and nonconvex problems in a two-level regime with extensions to the multilevel setting. Surprisingly, the nonasymptotic rate guarantees show no degradation from the rate statements obtained in a correctly specified regime and the schemes achieve optimal (or near-optimal) sample complexities for general T-level strongly convex and nonconvex compositional problems.

Business & Economics↗

Implementation and Operation of Power Flow Control Solutions for Transmission Systems

Power-flow controls (PFCs) technologies provide a suite of alternatives to more-efficiently direct the flow of power on the grid, improving flexibility and enabling the grid to be more responsive and resilient. PFCs can be used in many cases to mitigate overloads and consequently defer the installation of grid-expansion projects. They can also be suitable options in situations where new transmission lines cannot be built because of environmental constraints, land use, or other types of restrictions. Other uses include mitigation of loop or unintended flows, forcing of contractual or scheduled flows, reduction of congestion, and mitigation solutions during large maintenance or construction projects. While many studies have demonstrated the potential economic benefits of PFC for different types of applications, the implementation implications of using multiple PFCs for system operation and reliability have not been analyzed in detail. The lack of information and practical experience on these aspects hinders adoption of this technology. One use case would be that multiple PFCs are required to coordinate congestion management. In such cases, multiple PFCs are deployed in a meshed power system to control power flows across a wide area. The challenges are associated with PFC interaction—namely, the self and mutual power-flow sensitivity of each PFC, which must be accounted for in the calculation of the respective operating setpoints. This report analyzes implementation and operation that must be considered in evaluating transmission solutions using PFCs. The report first analyzes attributes with which PFC-based solutions should comply, based on the objective and characteristics of each particular use case. It then describes different approaches for coordinated control of multiple PFC devices for different applications, including options to avoid adverse interactions and reduce risks due to inappropriate coordination. Control and operation are illustrated through case studies performed on both generic and actual power system models. This report provides insights for transmission planners and operation engineers about the implementation of PFC-based transmission solutions; consequently, it will help them make informed decisions about the adoption of the technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Contracting Quality Early in the Lifecycle Using AS9145 Data Deliverables

Development schedules and a highly dynamic supply chain are a challenge to developers of complex systems produced at low volume. Flaws in designs, parts and materials availability problems, poor manufacturability, and a lack of knowledge about critical items and key process attributes can be realized well before traditional second-party quality assurance activities begin. Supplier audits and product inspections may have little mitigating effect once these foundational problems have been realized. Their impacts can be significant lifecycle disruption, cost overruns, inability to deliver to plan, and even project cancellation. AS9145, Requirements for Advanced Product Quality Planning and Production Part Approval Process, can be used to drive quality engineering practices into early development lifecycles to significantly reduce this late-cycle risk and to reduce the cost of quality overall. Since its initial publication in 2016, it has had very limited adoption by the DoD, no adoption by NASA, and sparse adoption in the aerospace and defense supply chain. A task group within the Aerospace Industries Association's (AIA) Joint Strategic Quality Council (JSQC) identified that both acquirers and suppliers see as AS9145 as a cost-adder and are hesitant to use it as an alternative to late-stage-heavy quality assurance approaches. A lack of prior use creates large capability gaps in request-for-proposal (RFP) teams, proposal teams, suppliers’ quality management systems (QMS), and in experienced personnel executing the early lifecycle approach. To create a more realizable on-ramp for using AS9145 in the space and defense sectors, the AIA JSQC task team created five deliverable requirements descriptions (DRDs) that can be used in a contract to begin to engage both parties in early lifecycle quality engineering and quality assurance activities, that reduce exposure to late-stage cost and schedule collapse due to unidentified risks in design, supply chain, and manufacturability. These DRDs drive the parties to engage in planning and analysis discussions early on to understand what production risks can be known and how they will focus resources based on safety criticality and the key elements of design and construction. The suppliers and acquirers who will produce the data and information required by the DRD will be able to incrementally evolve their QMS and the acquirer will incrementally be able to track and understand the benefits of cost shifting from late to early development phases. A white paper describing this approach and the five recommended DRDs will be published by the AIA in late 2024 or early 2025.

Jeannette Plante↗

Development and Demonstration of a Risk Assessment Approach for Approval of a Transportation Package of a Transportable Nuclear Power Plant for Domestic Highway Shipment

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) has tasked PNNL to address the regulatory challenges associated with confirming the safe transport of Transportable Nuclear Power Plants (TNPPs) containing irradiated nuclear fuel. A previous report—Proposed Risk-Informed Regulatory Framework for Approval of Microreactor Transportation Packages (PNNL-31867)—determined that the expected radioactive inventory in the irradiated fuel of a TNPP would likely require shipment in an NRC-approved Type B package (or spent nuclear fuel cask) but that a TNPP “package” is unlikely to meet the entire suite of NRC requirements set forth in Part 71 of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) for a Type B package. It was therefore concluded that shipment of this initial TNPP transportation package, as well as possibly others, under existing regulations would likely require NRC approval using the 10 CFR 71.12 (“Specific exemptions”) process that relies on risk-informed decision making supported by quantitative risk assessment (i.e., Probabilistic Risk Assessment).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Design of a Novel Information System for Semi-Automated Management of Cybersecurity in Industrial Control Systems

There is an urgent need in many critical infrastructure sectors, including the energy sector, for attaining detailed insights into cybersecurity features and compliance with cybersecurity requirements related to their Operational Technology (OT) deployments. Frequent feature changes of OT devices interfere with this need, posing a great risk to customers. One effective way to address this challenge is via a semi-automated cyber-physical security assurance approach, which enables verification and validation of the OT device cybersecurity claims against actual capabilities, both pre- and post-deployment. To realize this approach, this paper presents new methodology and algorithms to automatically identify cybersecurity-related claims expressed in natural language form in ICS device documents. Here, we developed an identification process that employs natural language processing (NLP) techniques with the goal of semi-automated vetting of detected claims against their device implementation. We also present our novel NLP components for verifying feature claims against relevant cybersecurity requirements. The verification pipeline includes components such as automated vendor identification, device document curation, feature claim identification utilizing sentiment analysis for conflict resolution, and reporting of features that are claimed to be supported or indicated as unsupported. Our novel matching engine represents the first automated information system available in the cybersecurity domain that directly aids the generation of ICS compliance reports.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Abstract for CRADA between NETL and Rivalia Chemical Co

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) will assist Rivalia Chemical Co (Participant) with system analyses to aid the Participant with setting priorities and securing funding. The Participant is an early-stage startup pioneering new chemical extraction technology to solve two important problems: critical mineral scarcity and coal ash waste management. The U.S. generates coal fly ash from coal combustion for power generation and has amassed over two billion metric tons of ash, which contains valuable rare earth elements. The ash is often stored in unlined ponds and frequently contaminates the local environment. The Participant’s patent-pending process harvests rare earths from ash, then transforms the residual ash for use in green concrete, providing an economic pathway for utilities to empty and remediate the ash ponds. Founder Laura Stoy created the company in July 2022 after developing the core intellectual property during her Ph.D. at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Stoy is currently participating in the Chain Reactions Innovations (CRI) program at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) where she will be optimizing the core technology and scaling from bench scale to demonstration scale. The technology has been validated at bench scale (TRL3); the goal is to approach TRL5 by the conclusion of the CRI program and prepare to raise capital investment for a pilot facility. NETL and the Participant will develop an updated technoeconomic analysis (TEA) and identify key sustainability performance parameters to inform ’s research and development priorities and de-risk the technology. NETL will also provide the Participant with guidance to prepare a more detailed life cycle assessment (LCA), and a narrative on the Participant’s product markets. These tools will aid the Participant with the next steps of commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer Based Hydrogen Production Facility

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk: An Approach for Understanding an Organization’s Unique Infrastructure Environment

The endeavor of tackling operational risk focused on consequences is challenging even for the most resourced entity but can be advanced though a simplified approach: identifying, binning, and prioritizing the infrastructure environment. While no two entities within a single element of the 16 critical infrastructure sectors are exactly alike when it comes to risk, there is a basic process to move toward a greater understanding of operational risk through becoming more informed about the infrastructure landscape in which the entity exists. The process starts with bringing internal and external stakeholders and subject matter experts together to analyze key areas such as Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) components and points of convergence, analyzing internal and external cyber and physical dependencies, accounting for explosive growth in devices and wireless technology, and leveraging the contributions of people inside and outside the operational environment. Attaining a common understanding of the infrastructure landscape as part of addressing consequences within operational risk is not easy to do or resource light, but the process outlined provides the framework to further any entity’s efforts in this space.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer-Based Hydrogen Production Facility: Preprint

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Information Security and Integrity Systems

Viewgraphs from the Information Security and Integrity Systems seminar held at the University of Houston-Clear Lake on May 15-16, 1990 are presented. A tutorial on computer security is presented. The goals of this tutorial are the following: to review security requirements imposed by government and by common sense; to examine risk analysis methods to help keep sight of forest while in trees; to discuss the current hot topic of viruses (which will stay hot); to examine network security, now and in the next year to 30 years; to give a brief overview of encryption; to review protection methods in operating systems; to review database security problems; to review the Trusted Computer System Evaluation Criteria (Orange Book); to comment on formal verification methods; to consider new approaches (like intrusion detection and biometrics); to review the old, low tech, and still good solutions; and to give pointers to the literature and to where to get help. Other topics covered include security in software applications and development; risk management; trust: formal methods and associated techniques; secure distributed operating system and verification; trusted Ada; a conceptual model for supporting a B3+ dynamic multilevel security and integrity in the Ada runtime environment; and information intelligence sciences.

Source record↗

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

The Role of Analysis and Testing in the Service Life Assessment of Ion Engines

Experience from tests and flights and engineering analysis represent the two sources of information on which to base conclusions on the reliability or failure risk of aerospace flight systems. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace flight systems or components. The limitations of testing in evaluating failure risk are discussed and an alternate statistical approach which relies on both test experience and analysis to quantitatively assess reliability is outlined. The implementation of this methodology in the service life assessment of ion thrusters is discussed and examples of failure modes being addressed in the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program are given.

Ion↗

A guide for performing system safety analysis

A general guide is presented for performing system safety analyses of hardware, software, operations and human elements of an aerospace program. The guide describes a progression of activities that can be effectively applied to identify hazards to personnel and equipment during all periods of system development. The general process of performing safety analyses is described; setting forth in a logical order the information and data requirements, the analytical steps, and the results. These analyses are the technical basis of a system safety program. Although the guidance established by this document cannot replace human experience and judgement, it does provide a methodical approach to the identification of hazards and evaluation of risks to the system.

Brush, J. M.↗

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗