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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Are high-redshift quasars hidden by dusty galaxies?

A Monte Carlo technique has been developed to compute the joint probability distribution for the reddening and extinction of quasars by galaxies along the line of sight with a realistic dust extinction curve including the 220 nm feature. Galaxies are treated as disks with random inclinations, having exponential or modified Gaussian radial profiles. This technique is used to find the distribution of the reddened quasars on multicolor diagrams such as the (U-J, J-F) plots used by Koo and Kron (1982) to find faint quasars. The multicolor search technique is not a simple UV excess approach, and the resulting color selection does not add significantly to the flux selection discussed by Wright (1981), Ostriker and Heisler (1984), and Heisler and Ostriker (1988). The quasar reddening trend observed by Wright and Malkan (1987) is about 0.35 + or - 0.50 times the mean reddening of the selected sample predicted by the Heisler and Ostriker model.

Wright, Edward L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A probabilistic approach to crack instability

A probabilistic model of brittle fracture is examined with reference to two-dimensional problems. The model is illustrated by using experimental data obtained for 25 macroscopically identical specimens made of short-fiber-reinforced composites. It is shown that the model proposed here provides a predictive formalism for the probability distributions of critical crack depth, critical loads, and crack arrest depths. It also provides similarity criteria for small-scale testing.

Chudnovsky, A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An improved approach for flight readiness assessment

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk for a spaceflight system in order to assess flight readiness is presented. This methodology is of particular value when information relevant to failure prediction, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is limited. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomena are used in a prescribed probabilistic structure to generate a failure probability distribution that is modified by test and flight experience in a Bayesian statistical procedure. The probabilistic structure and statistical methodology are generally applicable to any failure mode for which quantitative engineering analysis can be employed to characterize the failure phenomenon and are particularly well suited for use under the constraints on information availability that are typical of such spaceflight systems as the Space Shuttle and planetary spacecraft.

Moore, N. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

The probabilistic structural analysis method (PSAM) was developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine turbopump blades. Risk is calculated after expensive service experience. However, probabilistic structural analysis provides a rational alternative method to quantify uncertainties in the structural performance and durability. NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a probabilistic structural analysis computer code which integrates finite element methods and reliability algorithms, capable to predicting the probability distributions of structural response variables such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads. This computer code is detailed.

Shiao, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Numerical methods in Markov chain modeling

Several methods for computing stationary probability distributions of Markov chains are described and compared. The main linear algebra problem consists of computing an eigenvector of a sparse, usually nonsymmetric, matrix associated with a known eigenvalue. It can also be cast as a problem of solving a homogeneous singular linear system. Several methods based on combinations of Krylov subspace techniques are presented. The performance of these methods on some realistic problems are compared.

Philippe, Bernard↗
NASA NTRS1989

Projection methods for the numerical solution of Markov chain models

Projection methods for computing stationary probability distributions for Markov chain models are presented. A general projection method is a method which seeks an approximation from a subspace of small dimension to the original problem. Thus, the original matrix problem of size N is approximated by one of dimension m, typically much smaller than N. A particularly successful class of methods based on this principle is that of Krylov subspace methods which utilize subspaces of the form span(v,av,...,A(exp m-1)v). These methods are effective in solving linear systems and eigenvalue problems (Lanczos, Arnoldi,...) as well as nonlinear equations. They can be combined with more traditional iterative methods such as successive overrelaxation, symmetric successive overrelaxation, or with incomplete factorization methods to enhance convergence.

Saad, Youcef↗
NASA NTRS1991

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Space station internal propagation

The Space Station Freedom (SSF) is planned with a wireless communication system in place for the transmission of information between crew members on board. The clarity of transmission is paramount to an effective system of communication. A short overview is presented of the system including the requirements of interest, and a statement of the problem. The theory used to solve the problem is explored. The results given are for the experiments performed on a mockup of the proposed structure at NASA-Marshall. The requirements on the signal level are that there is a 45 dB signal to noise ratio from end to end, and that coverage over 99 pct. of the volume be maintained. The Rice probability distribution function, a simple extension of the Rayleigh distribution, is used to estimate the field strength inside a volume, where a significant line of sight from the transmitter to the receiver exists. For the SSF, this distribution will correspond to the summation of a coherent line of sight path between the transmitter and the receiver and an incoherent portion. The incoherent portion is the sum of reflections from the walls and the equipment inside the SSF. The Rice distribution was found to be the optimal distribution from the results.

Richie, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Gamma ray pulsar analysis from photon pobability maps

We present a new method of analyzing skymap-type gamma ray data. Each photon event is replaced by a probability distribution on the sky corresponding to the observing instrument's point spread function. The skymap produced by this process may be used for source detection or identification. Most important, the use of these photon weights for pulsar analysis promises significant improvement over traditional techniques.

Brown, Lawrence E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Structural Deterministic Safety Factors Selection Criteria and Verification

Though current deterministic safety factors are arbitrarily and unaccountably specified, its ratio is rooted in resistive and applied stress probability distributions. This study approached the deterministic method from a probabilistic concept leading to a more systematic and coherent philosophy and criterion for designing more uniform and reliable high-performance structures. The deterministic method was noted to consist of three safety factors: a standard deviation multiplier of the applied stress distribution; a K-factor for the A- or B-basis material ultimate stress; and the conventional safety factor to ensure that the applied stress does not operate in the inelastic zone of metallic materials. The conventional safety factor is specifically defined as the ratio of ultimate-to-yield stresses. A deterministic safety index of the combined safety factors was derived from which the corresponding reliability proved the deterministic method is not reliability sensitive. The bases for selecting safety factors are presented and verification requirements are discussed. The suggested deterministic approach is applicable to all NASA, DOD, and commercial high-performance structures under static stresses.

Verderaime, V.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Gamma ray pulsar analysis from photon probability maps

A new method is presented of analyzing skymap-type gamma ray data. Each photon event is replaced by a probability distribution on the sky corresponding to the observing instrument's point spread function. The skymap produced by this process may be used for source detection or identification. Most important, the use of these photon weights for pulsar analysis promises significant improvement over traditional techniques.

Brown, Lawrence E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Spacecraft dynamics characterization and control system failure detection, volume 1

The work under this grant has been directed to two aspects of the control of flexible spacecraft: (1) the modeling of deployed or erected structures including nonlinear joint characteristics; and (2) the detection and isolation of failures of the components of control systems for large space structures. The motivation for the first of these research tasks is the fact that very large assemblies in space will have to be built or deployed in situ. A likely scenario is, in fact, a combination of these wherein modules which are folded for transportation into orbit are erected to their final configuration and then jointed with other such erected modules to form the full assembly. Any such erectable modules will have joints. It remains to be seen whether or not joints designed for operational assemblies will have nonlinear properties, but it seems prudent to develop a methodology for dealing with that possibility. The motivation for the second of these research tasks is the fact that we foresee large assemblies in space which will require active control to damp vibrations and/or hold a desired shape. Lightweight structures will be very flexible, with many elastic modes having very low frequencies. In order to control these modes well, the control system will likely require many sensors and many actuators, probably distributed over much of the structure. The combination of a large number of control system components with long operational periods virtually guarantees that these systems will suffer control system component failures during operation. The control system must be designed to tolerate failures of some sensors and actuators, and still be able to continue to perform its function.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

A synthetic seismicity model for the Middle America Trench

A novel iterative technique, based on the concept of fault segmentation and computed using 2D static dislocation theory, for building models of seismicity and fault interaction which are physically acceptable and geometrically and kinematically correct, is presented. The technique is applied in two steps to seismicity observed at the Middle America Trench. The first constructs generic models which randomly draw segment strengths and lengths from a 2D probability distribution. The second constructs predictive models in which segment lengths and strengths are adjusted to mimic the actual geography and timing of large historical earthquakes. Both types of models reproduce the statistics of seismicity over five units of magnitude and duplicate other aspects including foreshock and aftershock sequences, migration of foci, and the capacity to produce both characteristic and noncharacteristic earthquakes. Over a period of about 150 yr the complex interaction of fault segments and the nonlinear failure conditions conspire to transform an apparently deterministic model into a chaotic one.

Ward, Steven N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Raman scattering measurements in flames using a tunable KrF excimer laser

A narrow-band tunable KrF excimer laser is used as a spontaneous vibrational Raman scattering source to demonstrate that single-pulse concentration and temperature measurements, with only minimal fluorescence interference, are possible for all major species (O2, N2, H2O, and H2) at all stoichiometries (fuel-lean to fuel rich) of H2-air flames. Photon-statistics-limited precisions in these instantaneous and spatially resolved single-pulse measurements are typically 5 percent, which are based on the relative standard deviations of single-pulse probability distributions. In addition to the single-pulse N2 Stokes/anti-Stokes ratio temperature measurement technique, a time-averaged temperature measurement technique is presented that matches the N2 Stokes Raman spectrum to theoretical spectra by using a single intermediate state frequency to account for near-resonance enhancement. Raman flame spectra in CH4-air flames are presented that have good signal-to-noise characteristics and show promise for single-pulse UV Raman measurements in hydrocarbon flames.

Wehrmeyer, Joseph A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic simulation of fragment dynamics and their surface impacts in the SSME turbopump

Numerical simulations are used to model the dynamics of solid fragments in the high-pressure fuel turbopump of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME HPFTP). The simulations are conducted in a probabilistic structure in order to simulate the variance in the geometrical configuration, material properties and initial conditions of the solid fragments. The results of the particle dynamics simulations are presented in the form of the probability of surface impacts, and probability distributions of the impacting velocity and impingement angle.

Hamed, A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Bias correction for rainrate retrievals from satellite passive microwave sensors

Rainrates retrieved from past and present satellite-borne microwave sensors are affected by a fundamental remote sensing problem. Sensor fields-of-view are typically large enough to encompass substantial rainrate variability, whereas the retrieval algorithms, based on radiative transfer calculations, show a non-linear relationship between rainrate and microwave brightness temperature. Retrieved rainrates are systematically too low. A statistical model of the bias problem shows that bias correction factors depend on the probability distribution of instantaneous rainrate and on the average thickness of the rain layer.

Short, David A.↗