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At least 451 records · Page 25

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive model using artificial neural network to design phase change material-based ocean thermal energy harvesting systems for powering uncrewed underwater vehicles

Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are a major beneficiary of the phase change material (PCM)-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology for their mission needs. However, this technology relies on different parameters and energy conversion steps that could be critical to the general energy generation efficiency. Sea trials showed that the design performed lower than their laboratory design specifications. This underperformance results from different factors, mainly the UUV’s trajectory, travel time, underwater ocean currents, temperature fluctuations, and biofouling on the heat exchanger due to long term underwater operations. Therefore, there exists a need to continuously monitor the ambient energy harvesting system and predict system performance, for mission planning purposes. Two major parameters influencing the energy harvesting system include the final pressure inside the hydraulic energy storage vessel or accumulator, and the electrical load value. Here, this work focuses on the hydraulic to electric energy conversion system. Therefore, a combination of numerical model and experimental testing is used to develop a predictive model using artificial neural network using MATLAB. After validation with experimental testing, 1000 data samples obtained from the numerical model are used to train the ANN. Compared to the experimental results, the developed ANN model can predict in less than a second the designed benchtop system’s total efficiency with less than 15 percent maximum error range. This predictive model development represents a cost-effective way for optimization and a computational energy efficient mode aboard UUVs for mission planning for deployed UUVs using PCM-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Overview of Aluminum Oxide Prediction Models for High Power Research Reactors

UMo/Al dispersion fuel clad with aluminum alloy cladding is a primary candidate fuel form that is being developed for high power research and test reactors including European high power research reactors (EUHPRR). Oxidation of cladding is considerable due to high power application. One of the objectives of this report is to review the existing oxide prediction models and heat transfer correlations at cladding surface.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encrypted model predictive control design for security to cyberattacks

Abstract In recent years, cyber‐security of networked control systems has become crucial, as these systems are vulnerable to targeted cyberattacks that compromise the stability, integrity, and safety of these systems. In this work, secure and private communication links are established between sensor–controller and controller–actuator elements using semi‐homomorphic encryption to ensure cyber‐security in model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear systems. Specifically, Paillier cryptosystem is implemented for encryption‐decryption operations in the communication links. Cryptosystems, in general, work on a subset of integers. As a direct consequence of this nature of encryption algorithms, quantization errors arise in the closed‐loop MPC of nonlinear systems. Thus, the closed‐loop encrypted MPC is designed with a certain degree of robustness to the quantization errors. Furthermore, the trade‐off between the accuracy of the encrypted MPC and the computational cost is discussed. Finally, two chemical process examples are employed to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed encrypted MPC design.

Suryavanshi, Atharva↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Coupled Probabilistic Wake Vortex and Aircraft Response Prediction Model

Wake vortex spacing standards along with weather and runway occupancy time, restrict terminal area throughput and impose major constraints on the overall capacity and efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS). For more than two decades, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been conducting research on characterizing wake vortex behavior in order to develop fast-time wake transport and decay prediction models. It is expected that the models can be used in the systems level design of advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts that safely increase the capacity of the NAS. It is also envisioned that at a later stage of maturity, these models could potentially be used operationally, in groundbased spacing and scheduling systems as well as on the flight deck.

Gloudemans, Thijs↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Model Predictive Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature Inside Plug-Flow Solar Reactor With Countercurrent Flow

Abstract Solar-driven thermochemical energy storage systems are proven to be promising energy carriers (solar fuels) to utilize solar energy by using reactive solid-state pellets. However, the production of solar fuel requires a quasi-steady-state process temperature, which represents the main challenge due to the transient nature of solar power. In this work, an adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is presented to regulate the temperature inside a tubular solar reactor to produce solid-state solar fuel for long-term thermal storage systems. The solar reactor system consists of a vertical tube heated circumferentially over a segment of its length by concentrated solar power, and the reactive pellets (MgMn2O4) are fed from the top end and flow downwards through the heated tube. A countercurrent flowing gas supplied from the lower end interacts with flowing pellets to reduce it thermochemically at a temperature range of 1000—1500 °C. A low-order physical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of the solar reactor including the reaction kinetics, and the proposed model was validated numerically by using a 7-kW electric furnace. The numerical model then was utilized to design the MPC controller, where the control system consists of an MPC code linked to an adaptive system identification code that updates system parameters online to ensure system robustness against external disturbances (sudden change in the flow inside the reactor), model mismatches, and uncertainty. The MPC controller parameters are tuned to enhance the system performance with minimum steady-state error and overshoot. The controller is tested to track different temperature ranges between 500 °C and 1400 °C with different particles/gas mass flowrates and ramping temperature profiles. Results show that the MPC controller successfully regulated the reactor temperature within ± 1 °C of its setpoint and maintained robust performance with minimum input effort when subjected to sudden changes in the amount of flowing media and the presence of chemical reaction.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predictive models enhance feedstock quality of corn stover via air classification

Feedstock heterogeneity is a fundamental obstacle to cost-competitive biobased products. Agricultural products like corn stover have anatomical components that vary in their chemical composition, mechanical properties, structure, and response to chemical and biological treatments. A technique that can enrich streams in select anatomical fractions would allow a tailored deconstruction approach to increase overall process efficiency. Air classification can be leveraged for such refining, however, fundamental characterization and understanding of the particle properties that underly the physics of air classification are only modestly documented. Here, we determine fundamental particle properties including mass-to-area ratio, drag coefficient, and partition velocity that describe how anatomical tissues of corn stover behave during air classification. In this work, mass-to-area ratios of anatomical tissues vary by nearly two orders of magnitude from 2.3 mg/mm 2 for cob to 0.04 mg/mm 2 for leaf. Drag coefficients of longer, fibrous materials (i.e., rind, husk, and sheath) are shown to correlate with particle area (p-value < 0.001) whereas granular tissues (i.e., cob, pith, and leaf) correlate better with mass-to-area ratio (p-values < 0.001). When compared to experimental observations, a simulated two-stage air classification and size reduction scenario predicts the overall partitioning of anatomical tissues within 15% for pith, husk, rind, and cob tissues. The model predicts an air-classified fraction preferentially enriched in cob (purity = 20%), rind (purity = 74%), and pith (purity = 4.5%) with a mass yield of 47%. Empirical relations for these properties can be used to predict the partitioning of corn stover during air classification based on anatomical type and size.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control for a Grid-interactive Efficient Thermal Storage-integrated Heat Pump System

Building heating and cooling systems can be used to overcome the mismatch between the intermittent supply of renewable power and the fluctuating demand for electricity. A novel underground thermal energy storage integrated with a dual-source heat pump has been proposed to mitigate the mismatch while meeting the thermal demand of buildings efficiently. Conventional thermostat control with heuristic rules cannot provide intelligent decisions to maximize the thermal efficiency and flexibility of the proposed system. Advanced control strategies like model predictive control (MPC) have provided a new paradigm for grid-interactive efficient building operation with the advancement of computation and sensing. This study developed an MPC for the proposed system to provide grid service for Demand Side Management and minimize the operating cost of building owners. A control-oriented dynamic model of the proposed system has been developed. Given an objective function and proper constraints, an optimization problem is formulated to determine the optimal control strategy of the system. Dynamic Programming is adopted to solve the optimization problem. A rule-based control (RBC) is also developed to achieve similar goals. Short-term simulations are conducted to compare the system performance resulting from the two controls. The simulation results indicate that the MPC performs more intelligently than the RBC in charging thermal energy storage and selecting heat pump sources by taking advantage of the predicted cooling demands of the building and the performance of the integrated system. As a result, the MPC could save energy and reduce operating costs compared with the RBC. A case study shows that, for a 3-day operation, the MPC saves 36.9% energy and reduces 38.5% operating cost compared with the RBC.

Shi, Liang↗

NASA NTRS1977

A prediction model to forecast the cost impact from a break in the production schedule

The losses which are experienced after a break or stoppage in sequence of a production cycle portends an extremely complex situation and involves numerous variables, some of uncertain quantity and quality. There are no discrete formulas to define the losses during a gap in production. The techniques which are employed are therefore related to a prediction or forecast of the losses that take place, based on the conditions which exist in the production environment. Such parameters as learning curve slope, number of predecessor units, and length of time the production sequence is halted are utilized in formulating a prediction model. The pertinent current publications related to this subject are few in number, but are reviewed to provide an understanding of the problem. Example problems are illustrated together with appropriate trend curves to show the approach. Solved problems are also given to show the application of the models to actual cases or production breaks in the real world.

Delionback, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Model Predictive Optimal Control of a Time-Delay Distributed-Parameter Systems

This paper presents an optimal control method for a class of distributed-parameter systems governed by first order, quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations that arise in many physical systems. Such systems are characterized by time delays since information is transported from one state to another by wave propagation. A general closed-loop hyperbolic transport model is controlled by a boundary control embedded in a periodic boundary condition. The boundary control is subject to a nonlinear differential equation constraint that models actuator dynamics of the system. The hyperbolic equation is thus coupled with the ordinary differential equation via the boundary condition. Optimality of this coupled system is investigated using variational principles to seek an adjoint formulation of the optimal control problem. The results are then applied to implement a model predictive control design for a wind tunnel to eliminate a transport delay effect that causes a poor Mach number regulation.

Nguyen, Nhan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonization of heat pump dual fuel systems using a practical model predictive control: Field demonstration in a small commercial building

In the transition from fossil fuel to electrified heating, a concerning trend is emerging in certain regions of the US. Owners of buildings with gas-based systems leave them in place after adding heat pumps (HPs). Existing control solutions for these hybrid (dual fuel) systems are rudimentary and fall short of realizing the full carbon reduction potential of these systems. Model predictive control (MPC) is often regarded as the benchmark for achieving optimal control in integrated systems. However, in the case of small-medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), the control and communication infrastructure required to facilitate the implementation of such advanced controls is often lacking. This paper presents a field implementation of easy-to-deploy MPC for a dual fuel heating system consisting of HPs and a gas-fired furnace (GF) for SMCBs. The control system is deployed on an open-source middleware platform and utilizes low-cost sensor devices to be used for real SMCBs without major retrofits. Here, we demonstrated this MPC in a real office building with 5 HPs and 1 GF for 2 months. The test results showed that MPC reduced 27% of cost while completely eliminating GF usage by shifting 23% of the thermal load from occupied-peak time to non-occupied-non-peak times.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Testing and demonstration of model predictive control applied to a radiant slab cooling system in a building test facility

Radiant slab systems have the potential to significantly reduce energy consumption in buildings. However, control of radiant slab systems is challenging. Classical feedback control is inadequate due to the large thermal inertia of the systems and heuristic feed-forward control often leads to unacceptable indoor comfort and may not achieve the full energy savings potential. Model predictive control (MPC) is now attracting increasing interest in the building industry and holds promise for radiant systems. However, an often-cited barrier to its implementation in the building industry is the high computational cost and complexity relative to the feedback controls used in conventional systems. The objectives of this study were to (i) verify the correct operation of an open source MPC toolchain developed for radiant slab systems, and (ii) demonstrate its efficacy in a test facility. A matched pair of cells in the FLEXLAB building test facility at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory was used in the study. The proposed MPC toolchain was implemented in one cell and the performance compared to that of the other cell, which used a conventional heuristic control strategy. Finally, the results showed that the simplified MPC approach applied in the toolchain worked as expected and realized energy savings over the conventional control strategy. The MPC yielded 42% chilled water pump power reduction and 16% cooling thermal energy savings, while maintaining equal or better indoor comfort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1997

Image discrimination models predict detection in fixed but not random noise

By means of a two-interval forced-choice procedure, contrast detection thresholds for an aircraft positioned on a simulated airport runway scene were measured with fixed and random white-noise masks. The term fixed noise refers to a constant, or unchanging, noise pattern for each stimulus presentation. The random noise was either the same or different in the two intervals. Contrary to simple image discrimination model predictions, the same random noise condition produced greater masking than the fixed noise. This suggests that observers seem unable to hold a new noisy image for comparison. Also, performance appeared limited by internal process variability rather than by external noise variability, since similar masking was obtained for both random noise types.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Diallo, Ousmane H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cooperative Model Predictive Control Scheme for Dispersed Smart Inverters at the Grid Edge

Growing number of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires cutting-edge control schemes to ensure uniform but not identical involvement of DERs to address rapid fluctuations on voltage of the grid clusters. Designing such control schemes for a grid with high penetration of DERs connected various clusters is complex and depends on physical configuration of the clusters themselves. This paper proposes a two-layered cooperative model predictive control scheme for fleet of dispersed smart inverters connected to a three-phase grid cluster located at the edge of a grid cluster. The upper layer of the controller ensures cooperative operation of fleet of smart inverters to perform voltage regulation and address voltage fluctuations in the grid cluster; while the lower level controller guarantees each individual inverter obeys the dictated references for active/reactive powers by the upper layer controller. In addition, the proposed twolayered controller has low voltage ride through (LVRT) capability to support the grid clusters during voltage sags. By employing the proposed control approach, the smart inverters will inject desired active/reactive powers based on circumstance of the entire cluster while guaranteeing proper power curtailment among the generation units. The control scheme is verified by simulation.

Fard, Amin Y.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Modeling of NOx Emissions from Lean Direct Injection of Hydrogen and Hydrogen/Natural Gas Blends Using Flame Imaging and Machine Learning

This research paper explores the use of machine learning to relate images of flame structure and luminosity to measured NOx emissions. Images of reactions produced by 16 aero-engine derived injectors for a ground-based turbine operated on a range of fuel compositions, air pressure drops, preheat temperatures and adiabatic flame temperatures were captured and postprocessed. The experimental investigations were conducted under atmospheric conditions, capturing CO, NO and NOx emissions data and OH* chemiluminescence images from 27 test conditions. The injector geometry and test conditions were based on a statistically designed test plan. These results were first analyzed using the traditional analysis approach of analysis of variance (ANOVA). The statistically based test plan yielded 432 data points, leading to a correlation for NOx emissions as a function of injector geometry, test conditions and imaging responses, with 70.2% accuracy. As an alternative approach to predicting emissions using imaging diagnostics as well as injector geometry and test conditions, a random forest machine learning algorithm was also applied to the data and was able to achieve an accuracy of 82.6%. This study offers insights into the factors influencing emissions in ground-based turbines while emphasizing the potential of machine learning algorithms in constructing predictive models for complex systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗