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NASA NTRS1994

A study of occurrence rates of Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) to aircraft with a focus on HIRF (external) High Intensity Radiated Fields

This report presents the methodology and results of a subjective study done by Polytechnic University to investigate Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) events on aircraft. The results cover various types of EMI from on-board aircraft systems, passenger carry-on devices, and externally generated disturbances. The focus of the study, however, was on externally generated EMI, termed High Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF), from radars, radio and television transmitters, and other man-made emitters of electromagnetic energy. The study methodology used an anonymous questionnaire distributed to experts to gather the data. This method is known as the Delphi or Consensus Estimation technique. The questionnaire was sent to an expert population of 230 and there were 57 respondents. Details of the questionnaire, a few anecdotes, and the statistical results of the study are presented.

Shooman, Martin L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Phonon Mechanisms for Excess Heat Capacity in Membrane Isolated Superconducting Transition Edge Sensors

The mechanics of phonon transport in membrane-isolated superconducting transition edge sensors is discussed. Surveys of the literature on this type of sensor reveal a number of designs with excess heat capacity and a smaller subset that exhibit decoupling of the superconducting film from the underlying dielectric. A simple model is addressed in which the membrane, despite its thermal isolation, fails to fully thermalize to the temperature of the metal film heating it. A population of phonons exists which is emitted by the metal film, partially thermalizes the dielectric and is then reabsorbed in the metal film without escaping from the device structure to the thermal bath. The size of this population and its contribution to the heat capacity are estimated for several device scenarios.

Chervenak, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Phonon Mechanisms for Excess Heat Capacity in Membrane Isolated Superconducting Transition Edge Sensors

Chervenak, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD): Data and Tools for Dynamic Management and Decision Support

The Mapping Application for Penguin Populations and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD) is a web-based, open access, decision-support tool designed to assist scientists, non-governmental organizations and policy-makers working to meet the management objectives as set forth by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and other components of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) (that is, Consultative Meetings and the ATS Committee on Environmental Protection). MAPPPD was designed specifically to complement existing efforts such as the CCAMLR Ecosystem Monitoring Program (CEMP) and the ATS site guidelines for visitors. The database underlying MAPPPD includes all publicly available (published and unpublished) count data on emperor, gentoo, Adelie) and chinstrap penguins in Antarctica. Penguin population models are used to assimilate available data into estimates of abundance for each site and year.Results are easily aggregated across multiple sites to obtain abundance estimates over any user-defined area of interest. A front end web interface located at www.penguinmap.com provides free and ready access to the most recent count and modelled data, and can act as a facilitator for data transfer between scientists and Antarctic stakeholders to help inform management decisions for the continent.

Humphries, G. R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Demographics of Rocky Free-Floating Planets and Their Detectability by WFIRST

Planets are thought to form via accretion from a remnant disk of gas and solids around a newly formed star. During this process, material in the disk either remains bound to the star as part of either a planet, a smaller celestial body, or makes up part of the the interplanetary medium; falls into the star; or is ejected from the system. Herein we use dynamical models to probe the abundance and properties of ejected material during late-stage planet formation and estimate their contribution to the free-floating planet population. We present 300 N-body simulations of terrestrial planet formation around a solar-type star, with and without giant planets present, using a model that accounts for collisional fragmentation. In simulations with Jupiter and Saturn analogs, about one-third of the initial (approx. 5 solar mass) disk mass is ejected, about half in planets more massive than Mercury but with a mass lower than 0.3 solar mass, and the remainder in smaller bodies. Most ejections occur within 25 Myr, which is shorter than the timescale typically required for Earth-mass planets to grow (30-100 Myr). When giant planets are omitted from our simulations, almost no material is ejected within 200 Myr and only about 1% of the initial disk is ejected by 2 Gyr. We show that about 2.5 terrestrial-mass planets are ejected per star in the Galaxy. We predict that the space-borne microlensing search for free-floating planets from the Wide-Field Infra-Red Space Telescope will discover up to 15 Mars-mass planets, but few free-floating Earth-mass planets.

Barclay, Thomas S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Developing and Diagnosing Climate Change Indicators of Regional Aerosol Optical Properties

Given the importance of aerosol particles to radiative transfer via aerosol-radiation interactions, a methodology for tracking and diagnosing causes of temporal changes in regional-scale aerosol populations is illustrated. The aerosol optical properties tracked include estimates of total columnar burden (aerosol optical depth, AOD), dominant size mode (Ångström exponent, AE), and relative magnitude of radiation scattering versus absorption (single scattering albedo, SSA), along with metrics of the structure of the spatial field of these properties. Over well-defined regions of North America, there are generally negative temporal trends in mean and extreme AOD, and SSA. These are consistent with lower aerosol burdens and transition towards a relatively absorbing aerosol, driven primarily by declining sulfur dioxide emissions. Conversely, more remote regions are characterized by increasing mean and extreme AOD that is attributed to increased local wildfire emissions and long-range (transcontinental) transport. Regional and national reductions in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursors are leading to declining spatial autocorrelation in the aerosol fields and increased importance of local anthropogenic emissions in dictating aerosol burdens. However, synoptic types associated with high aerosol burdens are intensifying (becoming more warm and humid), and thus changes in synoptic meteorology may be offsetting aerosol burden reductions associated with emissions legislation.

Ryan C Sullivan↗

NASA NTRS2016

Construction of Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-2) Vehicle Monte Carlo Splashdown Footprints for Use in Range Safety and Recovery Operations

The Low-Density Supersonic Dececlerator (LDSD) project performed the second test flight of a supersonic inflatable device (SIAD) and ring-sail parachute on June 8, 2015 over the Pacific Ocean west of Kauai. In order for recovery ships to quickly extract the test vehicle hardware from the ocean, and in the interest of safety to the population of the islands of Kauai and Nihau, statistical estimates of the splashdown location had to be performed. This paper describes the modeling assumptions used to generate the Monti Carlo splashdown trajectory simulation results and the use of the splashdown probability ellipses in support of satisfying range safety requirements.

Strauss, William D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Overview of the Search for Space Weathering Signals on Bennu: One Rock Type, or Two?

We report on progress in the search for signs of space weathering on Bennu. We provide an overview of the space weathering evidence to date, and summarize relevant findings from several ongoing parallel studies of surface processes and surface properties. We examine trends from these studies in the context of space weathering, and what is known about near-Earth asteroid surface maturation. Because Bennu is covered with blocks, boulders, and rocks of various sizes, our search for space weathering signals has inevitably led to a study of the properties of Bennu’s rocks. Our research question is – do Bennu’s bright and dark rock populations form a maturity continuum due to space weathering, or alternatively, do the bright and dark rocks provide compelling evidence for two distinct rock populations on Bennu? In particular, we present our best estimate of the sub-field-of-view OVIRS (OSIRIS-REx Visible and Infrared Spectrometer) spectral properties of the largest bright boulders and compare them with the darker materials on Bennu’s surface to see if the observed spectral and albedo differences are consistent with space weathering effects, or not.

Clark, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Access of energetic particles to storm time ring current through enhanced radial 'diffusion'

It is proposed that the transport of particles with energy of at least approximately 40 keV into the geomagnetic storm time ring current can result from enhanced stochastic radial transport driven by fluctuating electric fields during a storm's main phase. The effects of such electric fields are estimated by applying radial diffusion theory, assuming a preexisting trapped-particle population as the initial condition. The feasibility of explaining observed flux increases of particles of at least approximately 40 keV at no more than approximately 4 earth radii by enhanced radial 'diffusion' is then demonstrated. It is estimated that the at least approximately 40-keV portion of the storm time ring current at approximately 3 earth radii consists of about 50 percent preexisting and about 50 percent new particles. The formation of the storm time ring current is found to be perhaps explainable via a combination of direct radial transport at energies no greater than approximately 40 keV and 'diffusive' radial transport at higher energies.

Lyons, L. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A segmented approach to modeling building height: Delineating high-rise and low-rise buildings for enhanced height estimation

Understanding building height is imperative to the overall study of energy efficiency, population distribution, urban morphologies, emergency response, among others. Currently, existing approaches for modeling building height at scale are hindered by two pervasive issues. First, there is no consistent approach to quantify what a high-rise building is at a macro scale, leaving researchers unable to accurately compare results across geographies and domains. Second, high-rise buildings represent a small fraction of the built environment, implying data imbalance challenges that negatively affect current approaches. This is a problem of practical relevance since information on high-rise buildings is important for studies on urban heat islands, population dynamics, and pollution dispersion. Here, we introduce a novel approach to map building height which first identifies two distinct distributions within the built environment, with one being composed of low-rise buildings and one composed of high-rise buildings. We then develop an ensemble scheme where discrete specialist models are trained for each subset of low-rise buildings and high-rise buildings to infer building height from morphology features. For experiments mapping heights of 4.85 million buildings in Japan, we show an increase of 34 % in accuracy within 3m error when compared to the current state-of-the-art when modeling high-rise buildings, which based on KNN experimentation we define as any building > 12m . Our findings show that such an ensemble framework outperforms the current state-of-the-art approaches, which is especially relevant in relation to inferring height for high-rise buildings, a prominent issue of existing approaches for mapping the built environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Framework for Inferring Taxonomic Class of Asteroids.

Introduction: Taxonomic classification of asteroids based on their visible / near-infrared spectra or multi band photometry has proven to be a useful tool to infer other properties about asteroids. Meteorite analogs have been identified for several taxonomic classes, permitting detailed inference about asteroid composition. Trends have been identified between taxonomy and measured asteroid density. Thanks to NEOWise (Near-Earth-Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer) and Spitzer (Spitzer Space Telescope), approximately twice as many asteroids have measured albedos than the number with taxonomic classifications. (If one only considers spectroscopically determined classifications, the ratio is greater than 40.) We present a Bayesian framework that provides probabilistic estimates of the taxonomic class of an asteroid based on its albedo. Although probabilistic estimates of taxonomic classes are not a replacement for spectroscopic or photometric determinations, they can be a useful tool for identifying objects for further study or for asteroid threat assessment models. Inputs and Framework: The framework relies upon two inputs: the expected fraction of each taxonomic class in the population and the albedo distribution of each class. Luckily, numerous authors have addressed both of these questions. For example, the taxonomic distribution by number, surface area and mass of the main belt has been estimated and a diameter limited estimate of fractional abundances of the near earth asteroid population was made. Similarly, the albedo distributions for taxonomic classes have been estimated for the combined main belt and NEA (Near Earth Asteroid) populations in different taxonomic systems and for the NEA population specifically. The framework utilizes a Bayesian inference appropriate for categorical data. The population fractions provide the prior while the albedo distributions allow calculation of the likelihood an albedo measurement is consistent with a given taxonomic class. These inputs allows calculation of the probability an asteroid with a specified albedo belongs to any given taxonomic class.

Asteroids↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating IDP Origins Using ACLED Political Violence Events: Validation with Lebanon IDP Flow Data

A key input in modeling population distribution and flows following conflict events is the inclusion of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) flows between administrative units within a country. These flows are critical for capturing population movement and redistribution driven by current events, particularly conflict. In some cases, IDP destination data are available while origin data is incomplete or unavailable. This creates a gap in understanding where displacement is occurring, limiting the ability to model population redistribution accurately. Without origin data, it is not possible to reallocate population flows or accurately represent where displacement is occurring within the country. This report evaluates whether Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED) political violence event data can be used to estimate IDP origin distributions when direct origin data are unavailable. The approach is validated using historical IDP flow data from Lebanon, where both origins and destinations are observed. Results show that ACLED event distributions strongly correspond to observed IDP-origin patterns, particularly when using cumulative 60-day event windows. The method is most reliable for identifying major origin districts and approximating proportional origin shares. However, it is not intended to reconstruct exact individual displacement flows, but rather to provide a probabilistic spatial allocation of displacement origins.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between 2.39 and 1.31 million deaths per year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM(sub 2.5) is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths per year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths per year in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Silva, Raquel A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Astronaut Bone Medical Standards Derived from Finite Element (FE) Models of QCT Scans from Population Studies

This work was accomplished in support of the Finite Element [FE] Strength Task Group, NASA Johnson Space Center [JSC], Houston, TX. This group was charged with the task of developing rules for using finite-element [FE] bone-strength measures to construct operating bands for bone health that are relevant to astronauts following exposure to spaceflight. FE modeling is a computational tool used by engineers to estimate the failure loads of complex structures. Recently, some engineers have used this tool to characterize the failure loads of the hip in population studies that also monitored fracture outcomes. A Directed Research Task was authorized in July, 2012 to investigate FE data from these population studies to derive these proposed standards of bone health as a function of age and gender. The proposed standards make use of an FE-based index that integrates multiple contributors to bone strength, an expanded evaluation that is critical after an astronaut is exposed to spaceflight. The current index of bone health used by NASA is the measurement of areal BMD. There was a concern voiced by a research and clinical advisory panel that the sole use of areal BMD would be insufficient to fully evaluate the effects of spaceflight on the hip. Hence, NASA may not have a full understanding of fracture risk, both during and after a mission, and may be poorly estimating in-flight countermeasure efficacy. The FE Strength Task Group - composed of principal investigators of the aforementioned population studies and of FE modelers -donated some of its population QCT data to estimate of hip bone strength by FE modeling for this specific purpose. Consequently, Human Health Countermeasures [HHC] has compiled a dataset of FE hip strengths, generated by a single FE modeling approach, from human subjects (approx.1060) with ages covering the age range of the astronauts. The dataset has been analyzed to generate a set of FE strength cutoffs for the following scenarios: a) Qualify an applicant for astronaut candidacy, b) Qualify an astronaut for a long-duration (LD) mission, c) Qualify a veteran LD astronaut for a second LD mission, and d) Establish a non-permissible, minimum hip strength following a given mission architecture. This abstract will present the FE-based standards accepted by the FE Strength Task Group for its recommendation to HHC in January 2015.

Sibonga, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Disposition in Plasma, Saliva and Urine of Scopolamine after Intranasal Administration to Healthy Human Subjects

An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Space Motion Sickness. The bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were evaluated under the Food and Drug Administration guidelines for clinical trials with an Investigative New Drug (IND) protocol. The aim of this project was to develop a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine concentrations using data collected from the IND clinical trials with INSCOP. Methods: Twelve healthy human subjects were administered three dose levels (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 mg) of INSCOP. Serial blood, saliva and urine samples were collected between 5 min and 24 h after dosing and scopolamine concentrations were measured by using a validated LC‐MS‐MS assay. Pharmacokinetic Compartmental models, using actual dosing and sampling times, were built using Phoenix (version 1.2). Model selection was based on the likelihood ratio test on the difference of criteria (‐2LL) and comparison of the quality of fit plots. Results: The best structural model for INSCOP (minimal ‐2LL= 502.8) was established. It consisted of one compartment each for plasma, saliva and urine, respectively, which were connected with linear transport processes except the nonlinear PK process from plasma to saliva compartment. The best‐fit estimates of PK parameters from individual PK compartmental analysis and Population PK model analysis were shown in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. Conclusion: A population PK model that could predict population and individual PK of scopolamine in plasma, saliva and urine after dosing was developed and validated. Incorporating a non‐linear transfer from plasma to saliva compartments resulted in a significantly improved model fitting. The model could be used to predict scopolamine plasma concentrations from salivary and urinary drug levels, allowing non‐invasive therapeutic monitoring of scopolamine in space and other remote environments.

Wu, L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Detection of Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in Houston, Texas: A New Perspective from Space

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are caused by the heat-retaining properties of surfaces usually found in urban cities like asphalt and concrete. The UHI can typically be observed on the evening TV weather map as warmer temperatures over the downtown of major cities and cooler temperatures in the suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad environmental and societal implications. Interest in the UHI will intensify in the future as existing urban areas expand and rural areas urbanize. By the year 2025, more than 60% of the world's population will live in cities, with higher percentages expected in developed nations. The urban growth rate in the United States, for example, is estimated to be 12.5%, and the recent 2000 Census found that more than 80% of the population currently lives in urban areas. Furthermore, the U.S. population is not only growing but is tending to concentrate more in urban areas within the environmentally sensitive coastal zones. Urban growth creates unique and often contentious issues for policymakers related to land use zoning, transportation planning, agricultural production, housing and development, pollution, and natural resources protection. Urban expansion and its associated UHIs also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes. The UHI has been documented to affect local and regional temperature, wind patterns, and air quality.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

NASA NTRS2002

Detection of Urban-Induced Rainfall Anomalies in a Major Coastal City

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are caused by the heat-retaining properties of surfaces usually found in urban cities like asphalt and concrete. The UHI can typically be observed on the evening TV weather map as warmer temperatures over the downtown of major cities and cooler temperatures in the suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad environmental and societal implications. Interest in the UHI will intensify in the future as existing urban areas expand and rural areas urbanize. By the year 2025, more than 60% of the world s population will live in cities, with higher percentages expected in developed nations. The urban growth rate in the United States, for example, is estimated to be 12.5%, and the recent 2000 Census found that more than 80% of the population currently lives in urban areas. Furthermore, the U.S. population is not only growing but is tending to concentrate more in urban areas within the environmentally sensitive coastal zones. Urban growth creates unique and often contentious issues for policymakers related to land use zoning, transportation planning, agricultural production, housing and development, pollution, and natural resources protection. Urban expansion and its associated TJHIs also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes. The UHI has been documented to affect local and regional temperature, wind patterns, and air quality

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

DOE OSTI2021

National and regional waste stream in the United States: conformance and disparity

Accurate estimation of municipal solid waste (MSW) composition is critical for efficient waste management. In the United States, site-specific and material flow approaches determine the MSW composition at regional and national levels. The material flow-based national estimates are determined by the US EPA; the US EPA’s estimates are known to differ substantially from the aggregated tonnage of MSW managed by waste handling facilities in the United States. However, the material class-specific discrepancies of the US EPA’s material flow approach resulting in these differences are unknown. To find the basis of these discrepancies, we analyze the discarded MSW stream of 27 US states, which roughly accounts for 73 percent of the US population. Our analysis indicates that the material flow-based national estimates are accurate for the food, plastic, and glass material classes. In contrast, we find that the US EPA’s material flow-based predictions underestimate paper waste disposal by at least 15 million tons annually. These differences likely stem from incorrect assumptions of residence time. These results highlight the material class-specific strengths and drawbacks of the US EPA’s material flow-based MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗