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At least 451 records · Page 25

Managing Increased Electric Vehicle Shares on Decarbonized Bulk Power Systems

Transportation electrification and power sector decarbonization - the convergence of these two trends present a complex planning problem requiring realistic, region-specific modeling and analysis to ensure that both can happen rapidly and cost effectively. This project, funded through the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office, models the evolution of the U.S. bulk power system (through 2050) in response to large-scale EV charging across all on-road vehicle segments. We will assess the opportunity and value of demand-side flexibility (i.e., "smart" charging) for reducing energy costs, increasing renewable generation shares, and managing future EV loads on the bulk power system. Overall, this study aims to provide an improved understanding of least-cost solutions for managing EV load growth on the grid and will make high-resolution EV load data sets publicly available for further analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

The Demand-Side Resource Opportunity for Deep Grid Decarbonization

Technological innovations are creating a larger role for demand-side resources in electric grids. The rise of demand-side resources is occurring alongside the efforts to decarbonize grids. The confluence of these two trends has motivated research on the role of demand-side resources in grid decarbonization. Here, we synthesize the demand-side resource literature to develop a coherent and realistic vision for that role. We find that demand-side resources can supplement supply-side approaches to decarbonize grids more quickly and cost effectively. The role of demand-side resources is secondary to that of supply-side resources, and a critical analysis of tradeoffs is required whenever demand-side solutions substitute for supply-side solutions. Nonetheless, our review suggests that demand-side solutions can play a meaningful role, providing around 10%-30% of the resources required for deep decarbonization in domains such as energy, peak capacity, and deployed solar capacity. However, demand-side resources remain underutilized due to several solvable barriers. The urgency imposed by climate change requires that these barriers be addressed to fully realize the demand-side resource opportunity.

decarbonization↗

Power market models for the clean energy transition: State of the art and future research needs

As power systems around the world are rapidly evolving to achieve decarbonization objectives, it is crucial that power system planners and operators use appropriate models and tools to analyze and address the associated challenges. This paper provides a detailed overview of the properties of power market models in the context of the clean energy transition. We review common power market model methodologies, their readiness for low- and zero-carbon grids, and new power market trends. Based on the review, we suggest model improvements and new designs to increase modeling capabilities for future grids. The paper highlights key modeling concepts related to power system flexibility, with a particular focus on hydropower and energy storage, as well as the representation of grid services, price formation, temporal structure, and the importance of uncertainty. We find that a changing resource mix, market restructuring, and growing price uncertainty require more precise modeling techniques to adequately capture the new technology constraints and the dynamics of future power markets. In particular, models must adequately represent resource opportunity costs, multi-horizon flexibility, and energy storage capabilities across the full range of grid services. Moreover, at the system level, it is increasingly important to consider sub-hourly time resolution, enhanced uncertainty representation, and introduce co-optimization for dual market clearing of energy and grid services. Likewise, models should capture interdependencies between multiple energy carriers and demand sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Synergistic Anion and Solvent-Derived Interphases Enable Lithium-Ion Batteries under Extreme Conditions

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) face increasingly stringent demands as their application expands into new areas, including extreme temperatures and fast charging. To meet these demands, the electrolyte should enable fast lithium-ion transport and form stable interphases on electrodes simultaneously. In practice, however, improving one aspect often compromises another. For instance, the trend toward electrolytes forming anion-derived interphases typically reduces transport efficiency due to weak-solvating solvents. Here, we propose that instead of relying on anions to form the interphase, leveraging both solvents and anions to form interphases can potentially lead to a balancing point between robust interphase formation and effective ion transport. Guided by this design principle, 2,2-difluoroethyl ethyl carbonate (DFDEC) was identified as the promising solvent. With the new electrolyte using DFDEC as the major solvent and lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl) imide (LiFSI) as the salt, graphite||LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 (NMC811) full cells are capable of fast charging and demonstrate long-term cycling stability with a cutoff voltage of 4.5 V. Notably, the battery shows a capacity retention of 84.3% after 500 cycles with an average Coulombic efficiency (CE) as high as 99.93%. This new electrolyte also enables stable battery cycling across a wide temperature range (-20 to 60 °C), with excellent capacity retention.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

cerf: A Python package to evaluate the feasibility and costs of power plant siting for alternative futures

Long-term electric power sector planning and capacity expansion is a key area of interest to stakeholders across a wide range of organizations because it helps in making informed decisions about investments in infrastructure within the context of potential future vulnerabilities under various natural and human stressors. Future power plant siting costs will depend on a number of factors including the characteristics of the electricity capacity expansion and electricity demand (e.g., fuel mix of future electric power capacity, and the magnitude and geographic distribution of electricity demand growth) as well as the geographic location of power plants. Electricity technology capacity expansion plans modeled to represent alternate future conditions meeting a set of scenario assumptions are traditionally compared against historical trends which may not be consistent with current and future conditions. We present the `cerf` Python package (a.k.a., the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model) which helps evaluate the feasibility and structure of future, scenario-driven electricity capacity expansion plans by siting power plants in areas that have been deemed the least cost option while considering dynamic future conditions. We can use `cerf` to gain insight to research topics such as: 1) under what conditions future projected electricity expansion plans from models such as GCAM-USA are possible to achieve, 2) where and which on-the-ground barriers to siting (e.g., protected areas, cooling water availability) may influence our ability to achieve certain expansions, and 3) how electricity infrastructure build-outs and value may evolve into the future when considering locational marginal pricing (LMP) based on the supply and demand of electricity from a grid operations model.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities Across the United States: 2023 Edition

This report builds on the 2016 Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities across the United States report prepared by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). The 2017 report examined annual water and wastewater price escalation rate trends across the U.S. Annual water and wastewater price escalation rates are an important factor when conducting life-cycle cost analyses (LCCA) of water efficiency measures, which is required for Federal agencies. Following the framework of the 2017 report, PNNL used the American Water Works Association (AWWA) water and wastewater rate surveys to gather historical rate data for water and wastewater utilities in the US, which were used to calculate a sample set of water and wastewater annual price escalation rates (Figure E.1). An annual price escalation rate was calculated for 113 water utilities and 76 wastewater utilities that reported at least two AWWA surveys across the past 13 years (i.e., 2008 to 2021) and at least a five-year range between those two surveys. Statistical trends in the annual price escalation rates are also provided by the seven regions identified in Figure E.1. In the 2017 report, the average annual price escalation for the surveyed sample of water and wastewater rates were 3.0% and 3.2%, respectively. This report also calculated aggregate average annual price escalation rates for the surveyed sample of water and wastewater utilities to be 3.1% and 2.7%, respectively. These escalation rates were based on 87 water utilities and 46 wastewater utilities that reported data in at least two AWWA surveys with at least a five-year range between those two surveys and reported at least one AWWA survey in 2019 or 2021. Among water utilities, the highest average annual price escalation rate was 8.8%, and the highest average annual water de-escalation rate was -2.0%. And for wastewater utilities, the highest average annual wastewater price escalation rate was 10.2%, and the highest average annual wastewater de-escalation rate was -2.3%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Next Stage for Smart Cities: Metrics to Spur an Evolution from Technology for Efficiency to Technology for People's Needs

The Smart Cities movement is about a decade old, energized by the USDOT Smart Cities grant that sparked cities to dream big. Now, 10 years later, and multitudes of conferences and papers later, the biggest question regarding Smart Cities is whether any progress has been made? Smart Cities forums are typically led by the technology sector, either telecommunications, internet access, or most recently artificial intelligence (AI) concerns. Each of these areas have grown and found new applications in the context of Smart Cities, however, these technology applications are just tools toward ends. Do digital communications and assistance enable or foster improved access to real, tactile, non-virtual goods and services such as transportation, food, housing, trash removal, health care, education, social interaction? These and other topics are not 'big tech', but are each critical to quality of life outcomes and are day-to-day necessities, comprising many of the touch points through which citizens interact with municipal agencies. Regarding Smart Cities, relationships have not been fully refined as to how best to merge the emerging generation of technology and related trends with more mundane but essential requirements of tactile services. How should municipal managers and operators bring the range of new technology tools (e.g. on-demand transit, automated vehicles, digital connectivity) to bear to improve functions serving real- physical- non-virtual needs? How do we make cities more efficient in providing access to services and opportunities for improved quality of life? This paper examines the current Smart City movement, emerging trends, and the need to put metrics with respect to the delivery, access, and provision of real-life needs. Using a few case studies of past, present, and projected future scenarios, this paper attempts to bring Smart Cities into the real cities domain, perhaps pushing the moniker away from 'Smart' to 'Efficient' - something that can be measured, counted, and assessed. Through the consideration of the next stage of the evolution of cities from 'Smart' to 'Efficient', the combined efforts and experience of multiple researchers at the NREL and their network of collaborators highlights the need for updates metrics that can be used to start guiding efforts toward productive initiatives to improve quality of life.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Communities in energy transition: exploring best practices and decision support tools to provide equitable outcomes

Abstract The U.S. coal industry has been in a state of decline for the past decade, a trend ushered by flat electricity demand, increased regulatory pressure, and market competition from cost-competitive clean energy sources. The receding economic viability of the coal industry has been acutely felt by the communities with immediate economic ties to coal-fired generation. With the energy transition underway, the question of how to engage communities as stakeholders in the decision-making process and address their needs through an equitable and just transition remains unresolved. To that end, this paper explores the economic, environmental, and social challenges presented by the energy transition at the community level, highlighting four case studies from transitioning coal-dependent communities across the United States to ultimately identify best practices in coal plant decommissioning processes. This paper weaves these community-identified best practices into two support tools—a decommissioning checklist and a redevelopment decision-making framework—that can be used to engage communities in the power plant retirement decision, the site reclamation phase, and eventual redevelopment of the site and revitalization of the surrounding community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA Software Engineering Benchmarking Study

To identify best practices for the improvement of software engineering on projects, NASA's Offices of Chief Engineer (OCE) and Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) formed a team led by Heather Rarick and Sally Godfrey to conduct this benchmarking study. The primary goals of the study are to identify best practices that: Improve the management and technical development of software intensive systems; Have a track record of successful deployment by aerospace industries, universities [including research and development (R&D) laboratories], and defense services, as well as NASA's own component Centers; and Identify candidate solutions for NASA's software issues. Beginning in the late fall of 2010, focus topics were chosen and interview questions were developed, based on the NASA top software challenges. Between February 2011 and November 2011, the Benchmark Team interviewed a total of 18 organizations, consisting of five NASA Centers, five industry organizations, four defense services organizations, and four university or university R and D laboratory organizations. A software assurance representative also participated in each of the interviews to focus on assurance and software safety best practices. Interviewees provided a wealth of information on each topic area that included: software policy, software acquisition, software assurance, testing, training, maintaining rigor in small projects, metrics, and use of the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) framework, as well as a number of special topics that came up in the discussions. NASA's software engineering practices compared favorably with the external organizations in most benchmark areas, but in every topic, there were ways in which NASA could improve its practices. Compared to defense services organizations and some of the industry organizations, one of NASA's notable weaknesses involved communication with contractors regarding its policies and requirements for acquired software. One of NASA's strengths was its software assurance practices, which seemed to rate well in comparison to the other organizational groups and also seemed to include a larger scope of activities. An unexpected benefit of the software benchmarking study was the identification of many opportunities for collaboration in areas including metrics, training, sharing of CMMI experiences and resources such as instructors and CMMI Lead Appraisers, and even sharing of assets such as documented processes. A further unexpected benefit of the study was the feedback on NASA practices that was received from some of the organizations interviewed. From that feedback, other potential areas where NASA could improve were highlighted, such as accuracy of software cost estimation and budgetary practices. The detailed report contains discussion of the practices noted in each of the topic areas, as well as a summary of observations and recommendations from each of the topic areas. The resulting 24 recommendations from the topic areas were then consolidated to eliminate duplication and culled into a set of 14 suggested actionable recommendations. This final set of actionable recommendations, listed below, are items that can be implemented to improve NASA's software engineering practices and to help address many of the items that were listed in the NASA top software engineering issues. 1. Develop and implement standard contract language for software procurements. 2. Advance accurate and trusted software cost estimates for both procured and in-house software and improve the capture of actual cost data to facilitate further improvements. 3. Establish a consistent set of objectives and expectations, specifically types of metrics at the Agency level, so key trends and models can be identified and used to continuously improve software processes and each software development effort. 4. Maintain the CMMI Maturity Level requirement for critical NASA projects and use CMMI to measure organizations developing software for NASA. 5.onsolidate, collect and, if needed, develop common processes principles and other assets across the Agency in order to provide more consistency in software development and acquisition practices and to reduce the overall cost of maintaining or increasing current NASA CMMI maturity levels. 6. Provide additional support for small projects that includes: (a) guidance for appropriate tailoring of requirements for small projects, (b) availability of suitable tools, including support tool set-up and training, and (c) training for small project personnel, assurance personnel and technical authorities on the acceptable options for tailoring requirements and performing assurance on small projects. 7. Develop software training classes for the more experienced software engineers using on-line training, videos, or small separate modules of training that can be accommodated as needed throughout a project. 8. Create guidelines to structure non-classroom training opportunities such as mentoring, peer reviews, lessons learned sessions, and on-the-job training. 9. Develop a set of predictive software defect data and a process for assessing software testing metric data against it. 10. Assess Agency-wide licenses for commonly used software tools. 11. Fill the knowledge gap in common software engineering practices for new hires and co-ops.12. Work through the Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) program with universities in strengthening education in the use of common software engineering practices and standards. 13. Follow up this benchmark study with a deeper look into what both internal and external organizations perceive as the scope of software assurance, the value they expect to obtain from it, and the shortcomings they experience in the current practice. 14. Continue interactions with external software engineering environment through collaborations, knowledge sharing, and benchmarking.

Rarick, Heather L.↗

Annual Supply Chain for Photovoltaics (ASC-PV) in the United States: 2024 in Review

This report analyzes U.S. PV and BESS supply chains and costs in 2024, for PV module and battery technologies, structural and electrical balance of system (BOS) components, as well as PV recycling. The report concludes with an analysis of technology installation trends, government support for domestic manufacturing, manufacturing jobs, and the domestic content of PV systems installed in the United States in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scaling Up Energy Efficiency Investment in Emerging Markets - Private Sector Perspectives

Since 2000, electricity demand has flattened and decoupled from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. This trend is anticipated to continue for the next several decades and is largely attributed to the implementation of energy efficiency measures. However, non-OECD countries (emerging markets) have experienced, and are projected to continue experiencing, increasing electricity demands. If the world is to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement, annual investments in clean energy and energy efficiency need to increase by a factor of six by 2050, compared to 2015. Information presented in this paper is based on qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods to provide an empirical understanding of barriers to private sector clean energy investment including microgrid development, energy efficiency, smart grid development, and utility-scale wind and solar in emerging markets. Through literature review, a survey, and a series of webinar dialogues, USAID and the U.S. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) solicited input from private sector actors, including developers, project financiers, manufacturers and technical assistance service providers, on the challenges they face to market entry in emerging markets, and their suggestions for improving market competitiveness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Trends and Effects of Changes in Business Cases for Petroleum Refineries

This study investigates trends and effects in business cases for petroleum refineries with a focus on effects for the state of Oregon for finished gasoline. Recently, the Oregon Department of Energy released the 2024 Oregon Energy Security Plan (ESP) which highlighted the reliance on out of state gasoline imports primarily from refineries located in the state of Washington. This study compiled a list of recent refinery closures in the United States and analyzed the drivers and impacts each refinery closure had to its respective region. The study dives into exploring three refinery closure business cases and past events that impacted gasoline prices in Oregon. Lastly, the paper outlines a potential framework of indicators to analyze the risk of future refinery closures based on the findings. This study hopes to inform stakeholders about the vulnerabilities in Oregon’s fuel supply chain and provide information that can guide strategic planning for future energy security.

02 PETROLEUM↗

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]

This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Elucidation of Aromatic Catabolic Pathways in White-Rot Fungi

This project aims to investigate the hypothesis that white-rot fungi can simultaneously depolymerize lignin extracellularly and catabolize depolymerization products intracellularly as carbon and energy sources. Evaluating this hypothesis will provide deeper understanding of the role of white-rot fungi in facilitating carbon sequestration in Nature. Additionally, identifying the most promising fungal strains for lignin turnover and catabolism will catalyze future efforts in genetic tool development to enable metabolic engineering in white-rot fungi for lignin bioconversion to bioproducts. Lignin is the second most abundant plant-based biopolymer on Earth and represents up to 40% of the energy density of lignocellulosic biomass. Even though lignin is a massive natural carbon and energy reservoir, only a small group of basidiomycete fungi, namely white-rot fungi (WRF), have evolved the ability to efficiently depolymerize and mineralize lignin to CO2 and H2O. Considerable research efforts have been undertaken to understand how WRF depolymerize lignin but the biochemical reactions that convert lignin into CO2 have been largely neglected. In fact, it is unclear if WRF intracellularly catabolize lignin-derived aromatic compounds to utilize them as a carbon and energy source, or rather if lignin is depolymerized and mineralized extracellularly merely to facilitate access to cellulose and hemicellulose for use as a primary carbon source. To date, we have employed 13C-isotope labeling, systems biology approaches, and in vitro enzyme assays to definitively demonstrate that two WRF, Trametes versicolor and Gelatoporia (Ceriporiopsis) subvermispora, funnel carbon from lignin-derived aromatic compounds into central carbon metabolism via intracellular catabolic pathways [1]. Specifically, 13C-isotopic labeling approaches showed that these WRF utilize poplar-derived aromatic compounds (e.g. 4-hydroxybenzoic acid (4-HBA)) as a carbon source. In silico genome analysis led us to hypothesize a complete catabolic pathway for 4-HBA and identify multiple homologous sequences for enzymes with putative oxidative decarboxylase, hydroxylase, and ring-opening dioxygenase activities, which are among the main biochemical reactions acting on aromatic compounds. Spatial and differential proteomic and metabolomic analyses supported the proposed catabolic pathways and showed alternative catabolic steps in T. versicolor that were not present in G. subvermispora. Based on the in silico, proteomics, and transcriptomics results, we down-selected enzymes for further in vitro characterization, and we have assigned a function to six fungal enzymes (including oxidative decarboxylases, hydroxylases, and ring-opening dioxygenases). Interestingly, even though we selected homologous enzyme pairs from both WRF with similar -omics trends, in a few cases only one of the studied fungi showed activity for the proposed substrate. Based on all the observations from this study [1], we hypothesized that 4-HBA preferentially undergoes oxidative decarboxylation to hydroquinone and subsequent hydroxylation to 1,2,4-benzenetriol in G. subvermispora before ring cleavage, whereas 4-HBA would preferentially undergo hydroxylation to protocatechuate and further oxidative decarboxylation to 1,2,4-benzenetriol in T. versicolor. Examining additional decarboxylases and hydroxylases as well as enzymes from other protein families that can perform the same or similar oxidative reactions, such as cytochromes P450 with aromatic hydroxylation activity, will also be key for elucidating enzyme preferences for specific substrates. Overall, this work forms the foundation of a new research area based on lignin catabolism by WRF, which could be further exploited to convert the undervalued biopolymer lignin into value-added compounds.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Q1 2023 U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis Data File

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Non-parametric projections of national income distribution consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Understanding and projecting income distributions within countries and regions is important to understanding consumption trends and the distributional consequences of climate impacts and responses. Several global, country-level projections of income distribution are available but most project only the Gini coefficient (a summary statistic of the distribution) or utilize the Gini along with the assumption of a lognormal distribution. We test the lognormal assumption and find that it typically underestimates income in the highest deciles and over-estimates it in others. We find that a new model based on two principal components of national time series data for income distribution provides a better fit to the data for all deciles, especially for the highest and lowest. We also construct a projection model in which the first principal component is driven by the Gini coefficient and the second captures deviations from this relationship. We use the model to project income distribution by decile for all countries for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. We find that inequality is consistently higher than projections based on the Gini and the lognormal functional form, with some countries reaching ratios of the highest to lowest income deciles that are almost three times their value using the lognormal assumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar Photovoltaics: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

This is one of a series of reports and deep dive assessments produced in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. Over the past decade, solar power has gone from an emerging, niche technology to a mature energy industry. By 2035, solar power could supply 40% or more of U.S. electricity demand, dramatically accelerating the decarbonization of buildings, transportation, and industry; and, if current technology trends continue, it could do so without increasing the price of electricity. The rapid expansion of solar energy has the potential to yield broad benefits in the form of economic activity and workforce development. The solar industry already employs roughly 230,000 people in the United States, at an average wage that is higher than the national average for most comparable positions. By decarbonizing the electricity sector by 2035, the U.S. solar industry could employ 500,000–1,500,000 people by 2030. The components that are assembled to install a photovoltaic power system are produced by a global supply chain. Photovoltaic (PV) modules (also called panels) are made of cells that use a variety of technologies. There are two leading types of solar modules used in the United States, with crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules representing 84% of the market and cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules representing 16% of the market. Modules of either type require mounting structures to provide mechanical support (racking), which may be configured to follow the sun (tracking). The output of any PV module is direct current (dc), which is almost always converted to alternating current (ac) by an inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗