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At least 451 records · Page 25

Europe's Evolving Deterrence Discourse

Over the last decade, a deteriorating security environment has brought into sharp focus the atrophy of strategic thought that occurred after the Cold War. At a time of intensifying major power rivalry, renewed urgency about the effectiveness of deterrence and the reliability of strategic stability, and mounting threats by nuclear armed and -arming “rogue states,” the need for new intellectual capital has become more pressing. But the U.S. analytical community shed a great deal of capability and capacity in the 1990s and after the 9/11 attacks was long focused on other problems. In recent years, the United States has slowly begun to rebuild institutional capacity and to reinvest in the development of the necessary human capital and analytical tools. One symptom of past atrophy was the near-complete collapse of transatlantic dialogue on these matters. One indicator of the nascent renewal is the reemergence of transatlantic collaboration, especially among early career professionals. In recent years it has also become clear that European institutions too are beginning to rebuild capacity and reinvest in human capital. This small volume is the result of a collective effort by four institutions to take stock of the state of strategic thought in Europe as it relates to deterrence and to advance transatlantic dialogue on deterrence. As a co-organizer of this process, CGSR is pleased to produce this edited collection of papers on behalf of the group. I am especially grateful to Amelia Morgan and Anna Péczeli for their role as coeditors. Please note that the views expressed here are the personal views of the authors and should not be attributed to the Laboratory, its sponsors, or any of the institutions with which the authors are or have been affiliated. Please also note that the Laboratory assumes no responsibility for the validity of the information used by the authors, who have drawn on information in common usage in Europe to inform their thinking.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Neutron Transmission Imaging with a Portable D-T Neutron Generator

Fast-neutron transmission imaging provides complementary information to x-ray transmission imaging. While fast neutron imaging resolution is generally below x-ray imaging, 14-MeV neutrons have an advantage over portable x-ray systems. Neutrons have higher transmission through high-Z materials due to a more uniform attenuation as a function of material atomic number Z compared to X-rays, and can therefore image low-Z materials inside high-Z materials. As a result, portable neutron transmission imaging has many applications, including inspection of concrete and welds for corrosion in vehicles, bridges, and other infrastructure, measurement of material levels in containers, and inspection of suspicious packages. Fast-neutron imaging is also more practical for field use than thermal-neutron imaging due to the size and shielding requirements typical of thermal-imaging systems compared to the availability of small 14.1 MeV D-T neutron generators. However, there are limitations in portable fast-neutron imaging systems, including limited neutron output, limited light produced by neutron scintillators, and lower resolution due to neutron source spot size and 2-3 mm scintillator thickness. In addition, digital-panel dark-noise is roughly 100x higher than neutron scintillator light, and variations in noise across the panel and in time is comparable to the imaging signal. Here we discuss recent efforts in developing a portable fast-neutron radiography system, including an improved neutron scintillator, mitigation of panel noise, and new commercial portable D-T neutron generators. We also present MCNP efforts to model neutron imaging, including scintillator resolution and the effects of neutron scattering from the object and surrounding materials.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Development of a Neutron List Mode Collar (LMCL) and a List Mode Response Matrix Analysis Concept

This report was prepared for the Safeguards Program of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D). The report presents the development of the neutron nondestructive assay system, the List Mode Collar (LMCL) for the project OR16-List Mode for Collar-PD1La “List Mode Response Matrix for Advanced Correlated Neutron Analysis for Nuclear Safeguards.” The new list mode electronics developed under this project, and a spatial analysis concept called the List Mode Response Matrix are also described in this report. Analysis algorithms based on classification methods are published in a separate report. This research addresses the need to expand the capabilities of current nondestructive assay systems used for nuclear safeguards applications and considers the sustainability of safeguards technologies by the development of a “retrofit” concept using electronics based on modern standards. Furthermore, employing list mode data acquisition enabled the development of a spatial analysis concept and empirical measurement of a spatial response not previously used for safeguards neutron counting applications or measured in a traditional neutron collar detector and, therefore, provides new capability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deep Learning Systems for Increased Safeguards Surveillance Review Productivity

Nuclear safeguards inspectors expend significant time and maintain intense focus in reviewing video surveillance for safeguards relevant events. To increase efficiency and reduce the time burden of safeguards inspectors performing surveillance data review, this paper presents a novel deep learning (DL) systems concept to integrate generalized DL models into the safeguards surveillance review workflow. The Agency is investigating several DL algorithms for object recognition, localization, tracking, and flagging relevant activities. The project team is working closely with nuclear safeguards inspectors to identify review use cases (based on specific safeguards objectives) and collect their associated requirements. We focused on CANDU and LWR Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) and their associated dry storage areas as these present a particularly heavy burden on the inspector surveillance review process due to the number of these facilities under safeguards worldwide. Initial DL algorithm results on safeguards data are promising. Using a convolutional neural network, the team attained a mean average precision (mAP) of 92.9% identifying and localizing spent fuel (SF) casks from a 475 surveillance image dataset. Further, the team had initial success in training a recurrent neural network to identify reactor area activities in video clips, successfully indicating when SF casks enter or exit a pool. We discuss how such DL algorithms would be integrated into the Next Generation Surveillance Review (NGSR) software application. Another issue impacting review productivity is the long time inspectors may have to wait when running these algorithms in NGSR. We present a concept to pre-process remotely collected surveillance data with DL models as the data arrives to IAEA headquarters so that results are already available when starting a new review in NGSR. The proposed DL system concept shows a pathway and workflow for increasing an inspector’s surveillance review productivity by quickly and accurately identifying declared and undeclared safeguards relevant objects and activities in large quantities of surveillance imagery data.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Responding To A Downed Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Platform

A drone may be forced down as part of a kinetic Counter-UAS action or as a spoof signal with a command to land immediately. A drone could also be incidentally discovered by an employee or by a random patrol. In each case, the platform should be considered a suspicious package until it can be determined to be nonhazardous by qualified personnel.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The Global Nonproliferation Regime: The NPT and Beyond

In the aftermath of WWII, the fear of nuclear war prompted the international community to confront the issue of nuclear proliferation. The global nonproliferation regime that exists today is comprised of a matrix of multilateral treaties, political commitments, and unilateral measures designed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. It has evolved considerably since the dawn of the nuclear age. This presentation covers the origins of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), an introduction to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, a discussion of contemporary challenges and opportunities in the field, and an overview of the broader nonproliferation regime beyond the NPT.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Safeguards by Design Projects (Final Report FY2021)

This University Engagement project challenged engineering students at universities, that do not have Bachelor degrees in nuclear engineering but do have research reactors and some nuclear engineering coursework, to incorporate Safeguards by Design concepts into their Senior Capstone Design Project. This University Engagement project was part of the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, Next Generation Safeguards Initiative, Human Capital Development: University Engagement Program. This program exposed university students with Mechanical Engineering majors and Nuclear Engineering minors to the concepts of international nuclear safeguards.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Assessing Cognitive Impacts of Errors from Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models: Final Report

Due to their recent increases in performance, machine learning and deep learning models are being increasingly adopted across many domains for visual processing tasks. One such domain is international nuclear safeguards, which seeks to verify the peaceful use of commercial nuclear energy across the globe. Despite recent impressive performance results from machine learning and deep learning algorithms, there is always at least some small level of error. Given the significant consequences of international nuclear safeguards conclusions, we sought to characterize how incorrect responses from a machine or deep learning-assisted visual search task would cognitively impact users. We found that not only do some types of model errors have larger negative impacts on human performance than other errors, the scale of those impacts change depending on the accuracy of the model with which they are presented and they persist in scenarios of evenly distributed errors and single-error presentations. Further, we found that experiments conducted using a common visual search dataset from the psychology community has similar implications to a safeguards- relevant dataset of images containing hyperboloid cooling towers when the cooling tower images are presented to expert participants. While novice performance was considerably different (and worse) on the cooling tower task, we saw increased novice reliance on the most challenging cooling tower images compared to experts. These findings are relevant not just to the cognitive science community, but also for developers of machine and deep learning that will be implemented in multiple domains. For safeguards, this research provides key insights into how machine and deep learning projects should be implemented considering their special requirements that information not be missed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Semi-supervised Bayesian Low-shot Learning

Deep neural networks (NNs) typically outperform traditional machine learning (ML) approaches for complicated, non-linear tasks. It is expected that deep learning (DL) should offer superior performance for the important non-proliferation task of predicting explosive device configuration based upon observed optical signature, a task which human experts struggle with. However, supervised machine learning is difficult to apply in this mission space because most recorded signatures are not associated with the corresponding device description, or “truth labels.” This is challenging for NNs, which traditionally require many samples for strong performance. Semi-supervised learning (SSL), low-shot learning (LSL), and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NNs are emerging approaches that could bridge the mission gaps of few labels and rare samples of importance. NN explainability techniques are important in gaining insight into the inferential feature importance of such a complex model. In this work, SSL, LSL, and UQ are merged into a single framework, a significant technical hurdle not previously demonstrated. Exponential Average Adversarial Training (EAAT) and Pairwise Neural Networks (PNNs) are chosen as the SSL and LSL methods of choice. Permutation feature importance (PFI) for functional data is used to provide explainability via the Variable importance Explainable Elastic Shape Analysis (VEESA) pipeline. A variety of uncertainty quantification approaches are explored: Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), ensemble methods, concrete dropout, and evidential deep learning. Two final approaches, one utilizing ensemble methods and one utilizing evidential learning, are constructed and compared using a well-quantified synthetic 2D dataset along with the DIRSIG Megascene.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploratory Efforts to Constrain Geologic Material Properties from Remote Sensing Data: A Joint Study

Identification and characterization of underground events from surface or remote data requires a thorough understanding of the rock material properties. However, material properties usually come from borehole data, which is expensive and not always available. A potential alternative is to use topographic characteristics to approximate the strength, but this has never been done before quantitatively. Here we present the results from the first steps towards this goal. We have found that there are strong correlations between compressive and tensile strengths and slopes, but these correlations vary depending on data analysis details. Rugosity may be better correlated to strength than slope values. More comprehensive analyses are needed to fully understand the best method of predicting strength from topography for this area. We also found that misalignment of multiple GIS datasets can have a large influence on the ability to make interpretations. Lastly, these results will require further study in a variety of climatic conditions before being applicable to other sites.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) User Guide -- Version 4.0

The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) is used by Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and various national and international organizations for probabilistic consequence analysis of nuclear power accidents. This User Guide is intended to assist analysts in understanding the MACCS/WinMACCS model and to provide information regarding the code. This user guide version describes MACCS Version 4.0. Features that have been added to MACCS in subsequent versions are described in separate documentation. This User Guide provides a brief description of the model history, explains how to set up and execute a problem, and informs the user of the definition of various input parameters and any constraints placed on those parameters. This report is part of a series of reports documenting MACCS. Other reports include the MACCS Theory Manual, MACCS Verification Report, Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS, as well as documentation for preprocessor codes including SecPop, MelMACCS, and COMIDA2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Use Machine Learning to Improve Burnup Measurement in Pebble Bed Reactors

Advanced pebble bed reactor (PBR) designs post new challenges in material control and accountancy (MC&A) because the fuel materials, distributed in many discrete pebbles, are continuously circulated through the reactor core and the refueling path compared to the bulk fuel assembly design in conventional reactors, e.g., light water reactors. In pebble bed reactors, there are hundreds of thousands of fuel pebbles in the reactor core during the normal operation, and the burnup of each pebble is measured when ejected from the core. Accurate burnup measurement is an important step in material control and spent fuel disposition. The measurement is usually based on detection of radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over irradiation in the core. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134 Cs, 137 Cs, 154 Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of pebbles undergoing burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Stochastic Approaches for Calculating and Aggregating Detection Probabilities for Nuclear Material Diversion

The authors built and tested a stochastic simulation to estimate achieved detection probabilities (DPs) on a stratum basis, over a tailorable range of diverted amounts from 0 to 2 significant quantities (SQ), using typical International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection data: i.e., SQ in stratum, number of items, number of gross/partial/bias defect measurements conducted, and realistic relative standard deviation (RSD) values for typical IAEA verification measurements. For bulk strata, the model calculates achieved DP at 0.01 SQ diversion increments; for item strata, the model calculates DP using the smallest realistic diversion increment (e.g., a plate, pin, or coupon). After successfully benchmarking against IAEA deterministic models, the simulation was used to test the sensitivity of DP to certain standard assumptions and selected input parameters. First, the equal defect assumption was tested; the results suggest significant complexity in the effectiveness of partial defect measurements. Next, the authors explored the sensitivity of DP to the assumed RSD of attribute tests. Then, the authors compared non-normal models for instrument performance (e.g., logistic, step, or arbitrary functions) to the typical results from a normal distribution (characterized by RSD). This last comparison was supplemented with experimentally derived performance data for an HM-5 gamma spectrometer. The HM-5 was used to make enrichment measurements on both LEU and HEU MTR fuel elements as plates were removed, and the results fit with logistic and step curves and applied in the simulation. These stochastic DP results were compared to DP estimates from a deterministic model assuming a normal curve and typical RSD, yielding insights that could improve effectiveness in the field. These early results illustrate the potential of stochastic models to better understand achieved DP and to improve safeguards effectiveness.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century The U.S. Nuclear Deterrent in 2030 and Beyond: Fit for Purpose?

The 13th annual Strategic Weapons in the 21st Century (SW21) workshop brought together a mixture of senior officials from the laboratory, policy, military, and expert communities to promote a high-level focus and well-informed discussion on key deterrence challenges for the U.S. nuclear deterrent over the coming decade and beyond. It brought together interested stakeholders from the national security laboratories, federal government, military, think tank, and academic communities, as well as allied counterparts, to share perspectives in an unclassified setting.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Open Data for Nuclear Explosion Monitoring (NEM) [Slides]

The data sources tend to have the highest quality data and metadata, particularly for more recent data sets. Early data from sources such as IRIS tend to have some metadata issues.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

1st Quarter Emergency Drill at SERF: Player's Briefing [Slides]

The purpose of this briefing is to provide drill information to players participating in the 1st Quarter Emergency Drill at SERF as follows: Communicate general drill information and conduct expectations; Outline roles and responsibilities; and Provide safely and securely guidance to ensure unsafe act or security violation does not occur during the drill.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗