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At least 451 records · Page 25

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of external tubular configurations for a high-temperature chloride molten salt solar receiver operating above 700°C

Next-generation concentrating solar power (CSP) tower technologies target operating temperatures exceeding 700°C to increase the thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency. Molten chloride salts are one possible alternative to current commercial molten nitrate salts to enable the higher operating temperature. This paper analyzes the predicted optical, thermal-fluids, and structural performance of traditional external tubular solar receiver configurations applied with a chloride salt heat transfer fluid (HTF) and inlet/outlet temperatures of 500°C/735°C, and considers sensitivity analysis and optimization relative to receiver sizing, tube sizing, number of panels, flow circuit configurations, and solar flux concentration under constraints on internal velocity, pressure drop, wall thickness, and required creep-fatigue lifetime. The high temperature conditions increase the significance of inelastic deformation mechanisms such as creep relative to that expected in commercial 565°C nitrate salt designs. High-temperature creep and creep-fatigue damage in the metal alloy tubes are the key factors that limit allowable solar flux concentration and achievable receiver thermal efficiency at the near-800°C wall temperature conditions. For a traditional external cylindrical receiver configuration, the design parameters and conditions capable of satisfying all constraints produced, at best, a design point receiver efficiency of 78.2%, or 80.5% when excluding receiver intercept efficiency. Variation in the optimal receiver performance relative to uncertainty in the binding maximum velocity, minimum wall thickness, and minimum lifetime constraints is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging Multiple Raman Excitation Wavelength Systems for Process Monitoring of Nuclear Waste Streams

Processing nuclear waste from sites such as Hanford is a significant environmental cleanup need while being a significant logistical challenge. Integration of process monitoring tools, that can provide in situ and real-time feedback about the process, can significantly alleviate needs to collect grab samples for process control and product characterization. Raman spectroscopy paired with chemometric analysis is one process monitoring tool that can provide chemical composition information on a large number of chemical targets in nuclear waste streams. However, methods to improve limits of detection as well as drop uncertainty in quantification are needed. Optimizing instrument specifications can achieve this, here this is demonstrated by comparing limits of detection for key analytes when using Raman systems with 671 nm, 532 nm, and 405 nm excitation wavelengths. Generally, limits of detection decease (allowing the measurement of lower salt concentrations) with decreasing wavelength. Similarly, data collection times and averaging were optimized. Finally, multiple chemometric modeling approaches were leveraged, including multiblock methods that combined data from all three Raman systems to simultaneously quantify targets with improved sensitivity.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

ROM-Based Surrogate Systems Modeling of EBR-II

We report the System Analysis Module (SAM), developed and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory, is designed to provide whole-plant transient safety analysis capabilities for a number of advanced non-light water reactors, including sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), and molten salt reactor (MSR)/fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) designs. SAM is primarily constructed as a systems-level analysis tool, with the potential to incorporate reduced order models from three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to improve characterization of complex, multidimensional physics. It is recognized that the computational expense associated with CFD can be intractable for various engineering analyses, such as uncertainty quantification, inference, and design optimization. This paper explores the reducibility of a SAM model using recent advances in randomized linear algebra techniques, which attempt to find recurring patterns in the various realizations generated by a model after randomly perturbing all its input parameters. The reduction is described in terms of fewer degrees of freedom (DOFs), referred to as the active DOFs, for the model variables such as input model parameters and model responses. The results indicate that there is significant room for additional reduction that may be leveraged for additional computational gains when employing SAM for engineering-intensive analyses that require repeated model executions. Different from physics-based reduction approaches, the proposed approach allows one to estimate upper bounds on the reduction errors, which are rigorously developed in this work. Finally, different methods for surrogate model construction, such as regression and neural network-based training, are employed to correlate the input and output active DOFs, which are related back to the original variables using matrix-based linear transformations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Period Active Distribution Network Planning Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming and Nested Decomposition by SDDIP

This paper presents a multi-period active distribution network planning (ADNP) with distributed generation (DG). The objective of the proposed ADNP is to minimize the total planning cost, subject to both investment and operation constraints. The paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic optimization model to address DG uncertainties over several periods, in which the decisions are made sequentially by only using the present-stage information. A nested decomposition method is proposed which applies the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming (SDDIP) method to address computational intractabilities of the proposed ADNP approach. The presented numerical results and discussions on a 33-bus distribution system and a large-scale 906-bus system verify the effectiveness of the proposed ADNP method and its solution method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of Hybridization on the Capacity Value of PV and Battery Resources

Utility-scale systems that combine solar photovoltaic and battery (PV+battery) technologies are growing in popularity on the U.S. bulk power system. The business case for PV+battery systems depends on both their ability to reduce costs and their ability to generate value synergies associated with the provision of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Capacity value can constitute a significant portion of the value PV+battery hybrids provide to the grid (e.g., through avoided or deferred capacity) and receive through revenues. Throughout this report, we define capacity value as the monetary value of a plant's contribution towards the planning reserve margin, which ultimately depends on market rules and structures. PV+battery hybrids do not always fit into current market structures because of the interactions between the PV and battery components. Unique considerations for the capacity value of PV+battery hybrids include the disparate nature of participation models for PV and battery technologies in existing market rules and the potential influence of a shared interconnection capacity; limitations imposed by a shared inverter; limited ability to charge the battery in advance of capacity events if charging must be sourced from the coupled PV; and challenges or uncertainties associated with co-optimizing the operations of the PV and battery components. Grid operators are currently considering how market structures can be modified to optimally determine the capacity value provided by PV+battery systems, and the rules of how they are integrated into markets are still being written. As with any resource, poorly designed rules could increase the cost of energy and reduce system reliability, while well-designed rules could allow markets to receive the full benefits hybrid systems can offer without overcompensating them for the services they provide. Well-designed rules for PV+battery systems must consider the unique aspects listed above, while leveraging the commonalities with existing resource types. In this report, we summarize the technical capability and market rules that influence the capacity value of PV+battery systems. We further discuss the potential tradeoffs between computational complexity and accuracy for the various ways in which grid operators can credit PV+battery systems for capacity. Finally, we describe markets for capacity, survey current wholesale market rules applying to PV+battery systems, and provide a snapshot of the current regulatory landscape for PV+battery systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Advancement and Application

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2024 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Digital Instrumentation and Control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. The goal of the RISA Pathway is to optimize safety margins and minimize uncertainties to achieve economic efficiencies while maintaining high levels of safety. This is accomplished by providing scientific basis to better represent safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and by developing new technologies that reduce operating costs. The research efforts for FY 2024 encompass methodology refinement and exploration. The efforts include: (1) The implementation of a natural language processing tool to expedite key aspects of the reliability analysis methods developed by INL; (2) advances to support intersystem CCF analysis by providing guidance for and identification of coupling mechanisms that may contribute to CCF; (3) the investigation of how generative artificial intelligence tools can aid in hazard analysis and diversity and defense in depth (i.e., D3) assessments; (4) Industry collaboration, allowing the demonstration of and INL's risk assessment tools to support risk assessment of DI&C systems at early and late stages of development; (4) a roadmap for the development of a software for each of INL's risk assessment tools; (5) The development of a theory and methodology manual for a risk quantification methodology; (6) the development of a reliability analysis for machine learning (ML)-integrated control systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of hurricane disturbances on a tropical forest: implementing a palm plant functional type and hurricane disturbance module in ED2-HuDi V1.0

Hurricanes commonly disturb and damage tropical forests. Hurricane frequency and intensity are predicted to change under the changing climate. The short-term impacts of hurricane disturbances to tropical forests have been widely studied, but the long-term impacts are rarely investigated. Modeling is critical to investigate the potential response of forests to future disturbances, particularly if the nature of the disturbances is changing with climate. Unfortunately, existing models of forest dynamics are not presently able to account for hurricane disturbances. Therefore, we implement the Hurricane Disturbance in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) (ED2-HuDi). The hurricane disturbance includes hurricane-induced immediate mortality and subsequent recovery modules. The parameterizations are based on observations at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds (BEW) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. We add one new plant functional type (PFT) to the model – Palm, as palms cannot be categorized into one of the current existing PFTs and are known to be an abundant component of tropical forests worldwide. The model is calibrated with observations at BEW using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. The optimal simulation obtained from GLUE has a mean relative error of –21 %, –12 %, and –15 % for stem density, basal area, and aboveground biomass, respectively. The optimal simulation also agrees well with the observation in terms of PFT composition (+1 %, –8 %, –2 %, and +9 % differences in the percentages of “Early”, “Mid”, “Late”, and “Palm” PFTs, respectively) and size structure of the forest (+0.8 % differences in the percentage of large stems). Lastly, using the optimal parameter set, we study the impact of forest initial condition on the recovery of the forest from a single hurricane disturbance. The results indicate that, compared to a no-hurricane scenario, a single hurricane disturbance has little impact on forest structure (+1 % change in the percentage of large stems) and composition (<1 % change in the percentage of each of the four PFTs) but leads to 5 % higher aboveground biomass after 80 years of succession. The assumption of a less severe hurricane disturbance leads to a 4 % increase in aboveground biomass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Computerized optimal control system design for reusable and expendable boost vehicles.

An optimization technique has been developed which combines the practical features of hybrid simulation of the dynamic system under study with the systematic approach of modern control theory where a mathematically formulated design criterion is optimized by functional minimization. Standard hybrid computer optimization methods using high-speed repetitive simulations and gradient minimization schemes have been extended to obtain time-varying optimal gain schedules and reduce the sensitivity of the optimized system to parameter and disturbance uncertainties. In this approach the performance index is expressed in meaningful engineering terms that reflect the interactions among all major disciplines, structures, control/actuation system design, aerodynamics and performance. The basic optimization technique is developed and its application to current aerospace control problems including the space shuttle is presented in detail. In the discussion of the application, the controllers resulting from the technique are compared with controllers developed by conventional methods. The paper concludes with a review of the advantages and disadvantages of the technique and plans for future applications.

Connor, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Design and evaluation of a failure detection and isolation algorithm for restructurable control systems

The use of a decentralized approach to failure detection and isolation for use in restructurable control systems is examined. This work has produced: (1) A method for evaluating fundamental limits to FDI performance; (2) Application using flight recorded data; (3) A working control element FDI system with maximal sensitivity to critical control element failures; (4) Extensive testing on realistic simulations; and (5) A detailed design methodology involving parameter optimization (with respect to model uncertainties) and sensitivity analyses. This project has concentrated on detection and isolation of generic control element failures since these failures frequently lead to emergency conditions and since knowledge of remaining control authority is essential for control system redesign. The failures are generic in the sense that no temporal failure signature information was assumed. Thus, various forms of functional failures are treated in a unified fashion. Such a treatment results in a robust FDI system (i.e., one that covers all failure modes) but sacrifices some performance when detailed failure signature information is known, useful, and employed properly. It was assumed throughout that all sensors are validated (i.e., contain only in-spec errors) and that only the first failure of a single control element needs to be detected and isolated. The FDI system which has been developed will handle a class of multiple failures.

Weiss, Jerold L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Geopotential models of the Earth from satellite tracking, altimeter and surface gravity observations: GEM-T3 and GEM-T3S

Improved models of the Earth's gravitational field have been developed from conventional tracking data and from a combination of satellite tracking, satellite altimeter and surface gravimetric data. This combination model represents a significant improvement in the modeling of the gravity field at half-wavelengths of 300 km and longer. Both models are complete to degree and order 50. The Goddard Earth Model-T3 (GEM-T3) provides more accurate computation of satellite orbital effects as well as giving superior geoidal representation from that achieved in any previous GEM. A description of the models, their development and an assessment of their accuracy is presented. The GEM-T3 model used altimeter data from previous satellite missions in estimating the orbits, geoid, and dynamic height fields. Other satellite tracking data are largely the same as was used to develop GEM-T2, but contain certain important improvements in data treatment and expanded laser tracking coverage. Over 1300 arcs of tracking data from 31 different satellites have been used in the solution. Reliable estimates of the model uncertainties via error calibration and optimal data weighting techniques are discussed.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

The NASA Space Radiation Risk project is responsible for integrating new experimental and computational results into models to predict risk of cancer and acute radiation syndrome (ARS) for use in mission planning and systems design, as well as current space operations. The project has several parallel efforts focused on proving NASA's radiation risk projection capability in both the near and long term. This presentation will give an overview, with select results from these efforts including the following topics: verification, validation, and streamlining the transition of models to use in decision making; relative biological effectiveness and dose rate effect estimation using a combination of stochastic track structure simulations, DNA damage model calculations and experimental data; ARS model improvements; pathway analysis from gene expression data sets; solar particle event probabilistic exposure calculation including correlated uncertainties for use in design optimization.

Blattnig, Steve R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Northern Hemisphere Surface Freeze-Thaw Product from Aquarius L-Band Radiometers

In the Northern Hemisphere, seasonal changes in surface freeze–thaw (FT) cycles are an important component of surface energy, hydrological and eco-biogeochemical processes that must be accurately monitored. This paper presents the weekly polar-gridded Aquarius passive L-band surface freeze–thaw product (FT-AP) distributed on the Equal-Area Scalable Earth Grid version 2.0, above the parallel 50 N, with a spatial resolution of 36 km36 km. The FT-AP classification algorithm is based on a seasonal threshold approach using the normalized polarization ratio, references for frozen and thawed conditions and optimized thresholds. To evaluate the uncertainties of the product, we compared it with another satellite FT product also derived from passive microwave observations but at higher frequency: the resampled 37 GHz FT Earth Science Data Record (FTESDR). The assessment was carried out during the overlapping period between 2011 and 2014. Results show that 77.1% of their common grid cells have an agreement better than 80 %. Their differences vary with land cover type (tundra, forest and open land) and freezing and thawing periods. The best agreement is obtained during the thawing transition and over forest areas, with differences between product mean freeze or thaw onsets of under 0.4 weeks. Over tundra, FT-AP tends to detect freeze onset 2–5 weeks earlier than FT-ESDR, likely due to FT sensitivity to the different frequencies used. Analysis with mean surface air temperature time series from six in situ meteorological stations shows that the main discrepancies between FT-AP and FT-ESDR are related to false frozen retrievals in summer for some regions with FT-AP. The Aquarius product is distributed by the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at https://nsidc.org/data/aq3_ft/versions/5 with the DOI https://doi.org/10.5067/OV4R18NL3BQR.

Prince, Michael↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gust Load Alleviation Control and Gust Estimation for a High Aspect Ratio Wing Wind Tunnel Model

This paper presents the gust load alleviation (GLA) study of the aspect ratio 13.5 Common Research Model (CRM) wind-tunnel model. This study details the design of the GLA controller in preparation for wind-tunnel testing in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. An aeroservolastic (ASE) model was first reduced using a model reduction method that takes advantage of the sinusoidal steady-state response. Then, the reduced model was used to design an extended-state Kalman filter which estimates the states and the sinusoidal gust input. The GLA control was then derived using the optimal control solution to a multi-objective cost function. The results of the GLA controller indicate a 75.6% reduction in wing-root strain while maintaining robust stability margins. The final paper will include performance under sub-optimal conditions, e.g., sensor noise, uncertainty in gust frequency, etc..

Christopher Forte↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

The purpose of this paper is to extend previously demonstrated methodologies for design under uncertainty, leveraging analytical gradients to higher fidelity analysis for use in conceptual aircraft design. Previous work developed methods to generate analytical derivatives through polynomial chaos expansion, eliminating the need to estimate derivatives via complex step or finite difference. In this research, the authors build upon the methods to include physics-based aircraft design codes for aircraft design under uncertainty. This extends the previous work’s case study, which employed analytical aerodynamics and Breguet range estimations for wing design, to a higher fidelity level. In addition, this work extends previous work on interface development between the Uncertainty Quantification with Polynomial Chaos Expansion (UQPCE) software and Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) frameworks. This paper will discuss the development work necessary to perform multidisciplinary design under uncertainty as well as demonstrate the mechanics of interfacing UQPCE and conceptual aircraft design tools such as NASA’s Aviary code. In a case study, a conceptual aircraft design under uncertainty was conducted and compared against a traditional deterministic design. When given information about the uncertainty space from UQPCE, the optimizer was able to shape the output distribution and produce a more robust design

UQ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Under Uncertainty for Conceptual Aircraft Design Leveraging Analytical Gradients

UQ↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Methodology for Contextual Unit Commitment Using Regression Residuals

Day after day, system operators are faced with the challenge of taking unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load conditions. The standard operating procedure for taking UC decisions begins by leveraging auxiliary data on covariates (such as the day of the week or latest weather information) to generate a point prediction for net load, which is used in solving a deterministic UC problem. Such an approach, however, is known to deliver a notoriously poor out-of-sample (OOS) performance, as it completely disregards the stochastic nature of net load. While stochastic programming models explicitly represent uncertainty, they mostly do so using a generic set of scenarios that neglect covariate observations, squandering useful auxiliary data that could be harnessed to glean insights into uncertainty. In this article, we discuss a contextual stochastic optimization approach to UC, which effectively exploits covariate observations while explicitly assessing uncertainty so as to boost the OOS performance of UC decisions. The key thrust of our approach is to leverage regression models, along with their empirical residuals, to set up and solve sample average approximation problems. Not only do we prove that our approach satisfies the requisite conditions for asymptotic optimality and consistency laid out in (Kannan et al., 2022), but we also assess its performance on several case studies conducted using real-world data collected in California ISO and New York ISO grids. In conclusion, results show that the proposed approach can significantly improve OOS performance compared to alternative methods proposed in the literature under varying dataset sizes.

Yurdakul, Ogun↗