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At least 451 records · Page 25

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗

FPGA Architectures for Distributed ML Systems for Real-time Beam Loss De-blending

The Accelerator Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS) project’s goal is to create a Artificial Intelligence (AI) system for real-time beam loss de-blending within the accelerator enclosure, which houses two accelerators: the Main Injector (MI) and the Recycler Ring (RR). In periods of joint operation, when both machines contain high intensity beam, radioactive beam losses from MI and RR overlap on the enclosure’s beam loss monitoring Beam Loss Monitor (BLM) system, making it difficult to attribute those losses to a single machine. Incorrect diagnoses result in unnecessary downtime that incurs both financialand experimental cost. The ML system will automatically disentangle each machine’s contributions to those measured losses, while not disrupting the existing operations-critical functions of the BLM system. This paper will focus on the evolution of the architectures, which provided the high-frequency, low-latency collection of synchronized data streams to make real-time inferences. The ML models, used for learning both local and global machine signatures and producing high quality inferences based on raw BLM loss measurements, will only be discussed at a high-level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Application of remotely sensed multispectral data to automated analysis of marshland vegetation. Inference to the location of breeding habitats of the salt marsh mosquito (Aedes Sollicitans)

The techniques used for the automated classification of marshland vegetation and for the color-coded display of remotely acquired data to facilitate the control of mosquito breeding are presented. A multispectral scanner system and its mode of operation are described, and the computer processing techniques are discussed. The procedures for the selection of calibration sites are explained. Three methods for displaying color-coded classification data are presented.

Cibula, W. G.↗

Experimental Analysis of a Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) Engine in a Direct-Connect Test Facility

The object of this study is to investigate the operation of a RBCC at ramjet and scramjet flight conditions using a direct-connect test facility. The apparatus being tested is a single strut-rocket within a dual-mode ram/scramjet combustor. The gaseous hydrogen/oxygen, linear strut-rocket was supplied by Aerojet Propulsion Company. The hardware is being tested in the Direct Connect Supersonic Combustion Test Facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The test facilities hydrogen/oxygen vitiated heater is capable of flight total enthalpies to Mach 8. A Mach 2.5 facility nozzle mates the heater to the combustor duct. The rocket ejector will ordinarily operate in a fuel-rich mode. Additional fuel injection is provided by a pair of parallel injectors located at the base of the strut body. Instrumentation on the test apparatus includes a unique, direct thrust measurement system. Performance predictions for the anticipated test conditions have been made using a one-dimensional, thermodynamic analysis code. Results from the code show the dependence of overall thrust and specific impulse on rocket chamber pressure, rocket fuel equivalence ratio, and overall fuel equivalence ratio. Once the experimental test series begins, the inferred combustion efficiency as a function of axial location and the thermal choke region (where applicable) can also be determined using this code. Upon completion of the experimental test series, measurements will be used to calculate thrust, specific impulse, etc. Measured and calculated values will be compared to those found analytically. If appropriate, the code will be tailored to better predict hardware operation. Conclusions will be drawn as to the fuel-rich rocket's overall effect on ramjet and scramjet performance. Also, comparisons will be made between the integrated thrust calculated from the static pressure taps located along the duct and the thrust measured by the direct thrust measurement system.

K. Nelson↗

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and optimal prediction of partially-observed complex systems

Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deployment of inference as a service at the US CMS Tier-2 data centers

Coprocessors, especially GPUs, will be a vital ingredient of data production workflows at the HL-LHC. At CMS, the GPU-as-a-service approach for production workflows is implemented by the SONIC project (Services for Optimized Network Inference on Coprocessors). SONIC provides a mechanism for outsourcing computationally demanding algorithms, such as neural network inference, to remote servers, where requests from multiple clients are intelligently distributed across multiple GPUs by a load-balancing service. This talk highlights the recent progress in deploying SONIC at selected U.S. CMS Tier-2 data centers. Using realistic CMS Run3 data processing workflows, such as those containing transformer-based algorithms, we demonstrate how SONIC is integrated into the production-like environment to enable accelerated inference offloading. We will present developments from both the client and server sides, including production job and data center configurations for NVIDIA and AMD GPUs. We will also present performance scaling benchmarks and discuss the challenges of operating SONIC in CMS production, such as server discovery, GPU saturation, fallback server logic, etc.

Holzman, Burt↗

Ion transport and loss in the Earth's quiet ring current. 2: Diffusion and magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling

We have studied the transport and loss of H(+), He(+), and He(++) ions in the Earth's quiet time ring current (1 to 300 keV/e, 3 to 7 R(sub E), Kp less than 2+, absolute value of Dst less than 11, 70 to 110 degs pitchangles, all LT) comparing the standard radial diffusion model developed for the higher-energy radiation belt particles with measurements of the lower energy ring current ions in a previous paper. Large deviations of that model, which fit only 50% of the data to within a factor of 10, suggested that another transport mechanism is operating in the ring current. Here we derive a modified diffusion coefficient corrected for electric field effects on ring current energy ions that fit nearly 80% of the data to within a factor of 2. Thus we infer that electric field fluctuations from the low-latitude to midlatitude ionosphere (ionospheric dynamo) dominated the ring current transport, rather than high-latitude or solar wind fluctuations. Much of the remaining deviation may arise from convective electric field transport of the E less than 30 keV particles. Since convection effects cannot be correctly treated with this azimuthally symmetric model, we defer treatment of the lowest-energy ions to a another paper. We give chi(exp 2) contours for the best fit, showing the dependence of the fit upon the internal/external spectral power of the predicted electric and magnetic field fluctuations.

Sheldon, R. B.↗

Investigation of water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

Motions deduced in animated water vapor imagery from geostationary satellites can be used to infer wind fields in cloudless regimes. For the past several years, CIMSS has been exploring this potentially important source of global-scale wind information. Recently, METEOSAT-3 data has become routinely available to both the U.S. operational and research community. Compared with the current GOES satellite, the METEOSAT has a superior resolution (5 km vs. 16 km) in its water vapor channel. Preliminary work: at CIMSS has demonstrated that wind sets derived from METEOSAT water vapor imagery can provide important upper-tropospheric wind information in data void areas, and can positively impact numerical model guidance in meteorological applications. Specifically, hurricane track forecasts can be improved. Currently, we are exploring methods to further improve the derivation and quality of the water vapor wind sets.

Velden, Christopher↗

Geocoding of AIRSAR/TOPSAR SAR Data

It has been demonstrated and recognized that radar interferometry is a promising method for the determination of digital elevation information and terrain slope from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. An important application of Interferometric SAR (InSAR) data in areas with topographic variations is that the derived elevation and slope can be directly used for the absolute radiometric calibration of the amplitude SAR data as well as for scattering mechanisms analysis. On the other hand polarimetric SAR data has long been recognized as permitting a more complete inference of natural surfaces than a single channel radar system. In fact, imaging polarimetry provides the measurement of the amplitude and relative phase of all transmit and receive polarizations. On board the NASA DC-8 aircraft, NASA/JPL operates the multifrequency (P, L and C bands) multipolarimetric radar AIRSAR. The TOPSAR, a special mode of the AIRSAR system, is able to collect single-pass interferometric C- and/or L-band VV polarized data. A possible configuration of the AIRSAR/TOPSAR system is to acquire single-pass interferometric data at C-band VV polarization and polarimetric radar data at the two other lower frequencies. The advantage of this system configuration is to get digital topography information at the same time the radar data is collected. The digital elevation information can therefore be used to correctly calibrate the SAR data. This step is directly included in the new AIRSAR Integrated Processor. This processor uses a modification of the full motion compensation algorithm described by Madsen et al. (1993). However, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with the additional products such as local incidence angle map, and the SAR data are in a geometry which is not convenient, since especially DEMs must be referred to a specific cartographic reference system. Furthermore, geocoding of SAR data is important for multisensor and/or multitemporal purposes. In this paper, a procedure to geocode the new AIRSAR/TOPSAR data is presented. As an example an AIRSAR/TOPSAR image acquired in 1994 is geocoded and evaluated in terms of geometric accuracy.

Holecz, Francesco↗

Planetary Geochemistry Using Active Neutron and Gamma Ray Instrumentation

The Pulsed Neutron Generator-Gamma Ray And Neutron Detector (PNG-GRAND) experiment is an innovative application of the active neutron-gamma ray technology so successfully used in oil field well logging and mineral exploration on Earth, The objective of our active neutron-gamma ray technology program at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC) is to bring the PNG-GRAND instrument to the point where it can be flown on a variety of surface lander or rover missions to the Moon, Mars, Venus, asterOIds, comets and the satellites of the outer planets, Gamma-Ray Spectrometers have been incorporated into numerous orbital planetary science missions and, especially in the case of Mars Odyssey, have contributed detailed maps of the elemental composition over the entire surface of Mars, Neutron detectors have also been placed onboard orbital missions such as the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Lunar Prospector to measure the hydrogen content of the surface of the moon, The DAN in situ experiment on the Mars Science Laboratory not only includes neutron detectors, but also has its own neutron generator, However, no one has ever combined the three into one instrument PNG-GRAND combines a pulsed neutron generator (PNG) with gamma ray and neutron detectors to produce a landed instrument that can determine subsurface elemental composition without drilling. We are testing PNG-GRAND at a unique outdoor neutron instrumentation test facility recently constructed at NASA/GSFC that consists of a 2 m x 2 m x 1 m granite structure in an empty field, We will present data from the operation of PNG-GRAND in various experimental configurations on a known sample in a geometry that is identical to that which can be achieved on a planetary surface. We will also compare the material composition results inferred from our experiments to both an independent laboratory elemental composition analysis and MCNPX computer modeling results,

Parsons, A.↗

Soil Carbon Dynamics Following Land Use Changes and Conversion to Oil Palm Plantations in Tropical Lowlands Inferred From Radiocarbon

We measured the 14C and 13C isotopic values of soil organic carbon in mineral soil from lowland tropical forests to provide insight into how quickly carbon is turning over in the soil following conversion of primary forests to oil palm plantations. In addition to areas converted to oil palm plantations in Peru, Indonesia, and Cameroon, we examine pastures and secondary forests in Peru as a comparison to the carbon cycling processes operating in the oil palm plantations.This dataset includes radiocarbon (Δ14C) and stable carbon (δ13C) isotopes of soil organic carbon in mineral soils from natural lowland forests and oil palm plantations in Peru, Indonesia, and Cameroon. We additionally examine plots of secondary forests following agricultural use and pastures on cleared natural forest in Peru. In addition to isotopic data, this dataset includes soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations and stock, soil texture (percent sand, silt, and clay), pH, ECEC (effective cation exchange capacity), base saturation, and bulk density. Soils were sampled in 4 depth increments to 100 cm depth.This dataset supports the publication Finstad et al., 2020. Finstad, K., van Straaten, O., Veldkamp, E., & McFarlane, K. (2020). Soil carbon dynamics following land use changes and conversion to oil palm plantations in tropical lowlands inferred from radiocarbon. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 34, e2019GB006461. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006461

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diurnal Cycles in SST: Coupled Data Assimilation and Future Observational Requirements

Most operational centers are developing coupled (atmosphere-ocean) data assimilation systems as an alternative to uncoupled counterparts (atmosphere- or ocean-only). The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the key variables that tightly connects the atmosphere and ocean states and also air-sea fluxes. However, current prototype coupled data assimilation systems rely on external (L4) gridded SST or along-track (L3 or L2) SST retrievals as observed data or relaxation field. But in reality, SST are measurements are available from sparse in-situ network of ships, moorings, and buoys; all of them combined together are far less than those from satellites. However, satellites do not directly measure temperature, and inferring SST from satellite measured radiances requires a radiative transfer model, its calibration and also bias correction.The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is developing a coupled data assimilation system which assimilates SST directly from the raw observations, i.e., satellite radiances and in-situ observations. The methodology to directly assimilate radiances for SST became operational in Jan, 2017 in the GMAO's near-real time Weather Analysis and Prediction System. There were many modifications to the GMAO system in order to implement SST assimilation, most of which generally improved the predictability of the system. In order to maintain and further improve this system, we advocate for the availability of a microwave satellite radiometer in future beyond the currently operational GPM- GMI and AMSR-2 missions. For improved modeling of the near-surface temperature, salinity and mixing processes, we suggest adding more than one temperature sensor and salinity sensors to the drifting buoy network.

Akella, Santha↗

Assessment of Potential Ergonomic Injury Risk in the Nuclear Material Processing Glovebox Environment [Capstone Project]

Gloveboxes are isolation barriers that are used within many different industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic parts fabrication, nuclear, and biological. The research on glovebox ergonomics is currently limited with few ergonomic professionals that focusing exclusively on glovebox working environments. There is existing documentation on occupational injuries, such as musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), sustained as a direct result of working in gloveboxes. The main elements that pose ergonomic risks to glovebox workers are operational repetition, duration, force, vibration, lifting heavy (more than 15lbs with two hands) objects, and awkward postures. This paper examines a small sample of the potential causal or risk factors that lead to the ergonomic injuries. A meta-analysis utilizing a random effect model is used to examine data from several studies which focus on, dexterity and strength changes as result of glove thickness, and robotic assistive technology as a means to improve postural mechanics. With the meta-analysis technique, similar data sets from different research studies can be coalesced into a single weighted, statistically significant result for subsequent consideration. The results from the analysis show that increased glove thickness results in decreased dexterity for operators thus increasing ergonomic risk factors such as task duration. It is also shown that glove thickness decreases grip strength but a similar decrease in pinch strength is not definitively demonstrated. With decreased grip strength, operators will need to exert more force (a known ergonomic risk factor) on processing tools, etc. during operations thus increasing the risk of ergonomic injury. The use of robotic assistive technology as a means to improve operator posture (risk factor) was also examined. Although it may be intuitively assumed that human-robotic collaboration would be beneficial in reducing risk factors, the result from this study’s analysis was not statistically significant. It is inferred that with additional directed research on this topic another study/analysis could be statistically significant demonstrating the benefits of the technology.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The cognitive demands of second order manual control: Applications of the event related brain potential

Three experiments are described in which tracking difficulty is varied in the presence of a covert tone discrimination task. Event related brain potentials (ERPs) elicited by the tones are employed as an index of the resource demands of tracking. The ERP measure reflected the control order variation, and this variable was thereby assumed to compete for perceptual/central processing resources. A fine-grained analysis of the results suggested that the primary demands of second order tracking involve the central processing operations of maintaining a more complex internal model of the dynamic system, rather than the perceptual demands of higher derivative perception. Experiment 3 varied tracking bandwidth in random input tracking, and the ERP was unaffected. Bandwidth was then inferred to compete for response-related processing resources that are independent of the ERP.

Wickens, C.↗

The early Martian atmosphere

Atmospheric noble gases on Mars, Earth, and Venus are severely and variably depleted with respect to solar abundances, and are characterized by isotopic signatures that differ from planet to planet and from meteoritic and inferred solar compositions. Earlier theories based on simple accretion of meteoritic veneers as planetary volatile sources are unable to replicate these distributions, and so attention is now focusing on evolutionary processes that can fractionate both elements and isotopes, operating either on the early planets themselves or in large preplanetary planetesimals.

Pepin, Robert O.↗

The Nimbus-4 backscatter ultraviolet /BUV/ atmospheric ozone experiment Two years' operation.

Review of some of the procedures and results of the double monochromator and colinear photometer Nimbus-4 satellite experiment that measures ultraviolet terrestrial radiance, Lambert reflectivity of the lower boundary of the scattering atmosphere, and extraterrestrial solar irradiance. The experiment has produced nearly three years of almost continuous data which are being used to infer the high-level ozone distribution and total ozone on a global basis. The high-level ozone data have been verified by independent coincident rocket ozone soundings, and the total ozone values show good agreement with Dobson spectrophotometer determinations. An increase has been observed in equatorial radiance at 2550 A relative to 2900 A, which seems to indicate that the amount of ozone in the upper stratosphere is related to the eleven-year solar cycle.

Heath, D. F.↗

Impacts of floating-point non-associativity on reproducibility for HPC and deep learning applications

Run to run variability in parallel programs caused by floating-point non-associativity has been known to significantly affect reproducibility in iterative algorithms, due to accumulating errors. Non-reproducibility can critically affect the efficiency and effectiveness of correctness testing for stochastic programs. Recently, the sensitivity of deep learning training and inference pipelines to floating-point non-associativity has been found to sometimes be extreme. It can prevent certification for commercial applications, accurate assessment of robustness and sensitivity, and bug detection. New approaches in scientific computing applications have coupled deep learning models with high-performance computing, leading to an aggravation of debugging and testing challenges. Here we perform an investigation of the statistical properties of floating-point non-associativity within modern parallel programming models, and analyze performance and productivity impacts of replacing atomic operations with deterministic alternatives on GPUs. We examine the recently-added deterministic options in PyTorch within the context of GPU deployment for deep learning, uncovering and quantifying the impacts of input parameters triggering run to run variability and reporting on the reliability and completeness of the documentation. Finally, we evaluate the strategy of exploiting automatic determinism that could be provided by deterministic hardware, using the Groq LPUTM accelerator for inference portions of the deep learning pipeline. We demonstrate the benefits that a hardware-based strategy can provide within reproducibility and correctness efforts.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif↗

Tunable Microwave Conductance of Nanodomains in Ferroelectric PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 Thin Film

Ferroelectric materials exhibit spontaneous polarization that can be switched by electric field. Beyond traditional applications as nonvolatile capacitive elements, the interplay between polarization and electronic transport in ferroelectric thin films has enabled a path to neuromorphic device applications involving resistive switching. A fundamental challenge, however, is that finite electronic conductivity may introduce considerable power dissipation and perhaps destabilize ferroelectricity itself. In this work, tunable microwave frequency electronic response of domain walls injected into ferroelectric lead zirconate titanate (PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 ) on the level of a single nanodomain is revealed. Tunable microwave response is detected through first-order reversal curve spectroscopy combined with scanning microwave impedance microscopy measurements taken near 3 GHz. Contributions of film interfaces to the measured AC conduction through subtractive milling, where the film exhibited improved conduction properties after removal of surface layers, are investigated. Using statistical analysis and finite element modeling, we inferred that the mechanism of tunable microwave conductance is the variable area of the domain wall in the switching volume. These observations open the possibilities for ferroelectric memristors or volatile resistive switches, localized to several tens of nanometers and operating according to well-defined dynamics under an applied field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗