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At least 451 records · Page 25

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NASA NTRS2012

Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

Hesse, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-based Induced Earthquake Forecasting: Process Understanding, and Hazards Mitigation

Disposal of saltwater co-produced with oil and gas is linked to elevated seismicity in the Central and Midwest US. There is a concern that these events may lead to widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. Thus an improved understanding of the spatially and temporally variable deformation and stress field associated with fluid injection operation is critically necessary for evaluating time-varying seismic hazards. Despite the improvements in seismic monitoring capacity and the resulting decrease in the magnitude detection threshold, estimates of induced earthquake probability remain elusive due to insufficient models incapable of accounting for the complex physics governing the process of induced seismicity. The proposed research effort will comprehensively analyze, integrate, and interpret geodetic, injection, and seismic data in the vicinity of the injection sites in Oklahoma to resolve the 4-dimensional distribution of pore pressure and stress in the shallow crust. This project, in particular, is focused on exploring the statistical relation between injection operation and increased earthquake hazard. The amplitude of and the extent to which pore pressure changes are determined by some factors, in particular, the hydrogeological properties of the rocks, such as diffusivity. Thus the available deformation data will be used to constrain hydrogeological properties of the medium, to accurately resolve the evolution of crustal stresses due to fluid injection. Having the time-varying models of stress changes, a statistical framework will be implemented to estimate the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes on the nearby fault systems. These data and models help to improve seismic hazard estimates and aid in constructing operational-induced earthquake forecast models. This information can also be integrated into the updated U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map, which local communities and authorities use in their earthquake risk estimates and mitigation efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

An Investigation Into Criteria Commonly Used by the FAA to Grant Relief to Part 135 Operators Under FAR Sections: 135.213, 135.219, and/or 135.225

The objective of this study was to determine the criteria commonly used by the FAA to grant waivers, exemptions, or deviations to FAR Part 135, Sections 135.213, 135.219, and 135.225 and the potential impact on Flight Information Services Data Link (FISDL) implementation. These aviation regulations address the requirements for the use of weather reports or forecasts when conducting operations under FAR Part 135. In this study a literature search was conducted to obtain historical records of requests for relief from the 3 FAR sections under consideration. The exemption request records were then analyzed in order to determine the reasons given by the FAA for either granting or denying the request. In addition, FAA personnel and Part 135 operators were interviewed to determine the procedures used for satisfying the requirements of the 3 FAR sections.

Williams, Louis J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2020

We Just Want to Pump…You Up! Forecasting Grid-Connected Heat Pump Water Heater Energy Savings and Load Shifting Potential for the Southeast U.S.

Heat pump water heaters (HPWH) can achieve energy savings of 60-70% compared to conventional electric-resistance water heaters. However, even with a favorable simple payback period within the typical product lifetime, HPWHs make up only 1% of all electric water heaters sold in the residential sector. Market adoption is challenged, in part, by the lack of effective energy efficiency programs in the U.S. region with the greatest amount of residential electric water heaters. The recent integration of connected functionality into HPWHs offers the capability to shift load without undue negative impact on customers. This capability can provide value to utilities with peak load constraints, motivating them to promote HPWHs for the first time. This paper will present a methodology to forecast connected HPWH energy use and extrapolate load shifting potential for the Southeast U.S. region. The methodology leverages data from a robust connected HPWH field study conducted in the Pacific Northwest. A coefficient of performance (COP) relationship for HPWHs was developed using ambient and inlet water temperature data to forecast HPWH performance on a month-by-month basis. Using the forecasted COP, HPWH operating hours were calculated for meeting load, which serve as the proxy to extrapolate load shifting potential from the Pacific Northwest to the Southeast. As a use case, analytical results are presented for a specific utility. This methodology, in combination with market analysis, facilitates the development of customized energy savings and load shifting forecasts to understand the potential impacts of launching connected HPWH programs in specific utility service territories.

heat pump water heater, energy savings, load shift↗

NASA NTRS2013

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

One of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a ~24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

forecasting↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Machine Learning Approach to Objective Identification of Dust in Satellite Imagery

Airborne dust has broad adverse effects on human activity, including aviation, human health, and agriculture. Remote sensing observations are used to detect dust and aerosols in the atmosphere using long established techniques. False color Red-Green-Blue (RGB) imagery using band differences sensitive to dust absorption (Dust RGB) is currently used operationally to assist forecasters and decision-makers in identifying dust at night, but there are still limitations, subjectivity, and nuances to image interpretation making night-time dust identification difficult even for experts. This study applies machine learning to the problem of night-time dust detection with a simple random forest (RF) model using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) infrared imagery, band differences sensitive to dust absorption, and Dust RGB color components as inputs to the model. The RF model achieves an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.97 with a standard deviation of 0.04 for dust cases. For images with dust present, the model correctly labels 85% of dust pixels and 99.96% of no-dust pixels for all dust images in the validation data set. The addition of a single null case to the training data set drastically reduces error in labeling no-dust pixels as dust from 45% to 14.5%. Application of the machine learning model to the April 13–14, 2019 dust event demonstrates the ability of the model to identify dust during night-time hours when visual dust detection is limited by the cooling ground surface characteristics.

dust↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Central Role of Air Quality Observations in NASA's GEOS Composition Forecasting Model

The NASA GEOS composition forecast model (GEOS-CF) provides global, high-resolution (25 km) air quality forecasts in near-real time. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest compared to current, publicly-available global composition forecasts.Air quality observations are an indispensable tool to evaluate the model's ability to capture the strong temporal and spatial gradients of air pollutants across the globe. We show how comparisons against near-real time observations available through OpenAQ (www.openaq.org) demonstrate the model's overall success in reproducing surface concentrations of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and PM2.5. This analysis also helps identifying current limitations of the model, for example over South America. The model-observation mismatches are most likely caused by uncertainties in the emissions data. Using the example of Rio de Janeiro, we show how the model skill can be improved by using local, high-resolution emission inventories in combination with air quality data.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Providing operational guidance for the development of sea breeze thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center - An experiment using a mesoscale numerical model

The effectiveness of a mesoscale numerical model to provide improved local forecast guidance is evaluated with respect to sea breeze convection storms at the Kennedy Space Center. The model and operational forecast guidance production are described. A case study is presented for sea breeze convection storms and lightning events on July 1, 1986. It is found that the mesoscale numerical model outperforms purely subjective predictions of sea breeze convection. The range of applications for the model are considered.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Evaluating the Impact of AIRS Observations on Regional Forecasts at the SPoRT Center

NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center collaborates with operational partners of different sizes and operational goals to improve forecasts using targeted projects and data sets. Modeling and DA activities focus on demonstrating utility of NASA data sets and capabilities within operational systems. SPoRT has successfully assimilated the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance and profile data. A collaborative project is underway with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to use AIRS profiles to better understand the impact of AIRS radiances assimilated within Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) in hopes of engaging the operational DA community in a reassessment of assimilation methodologies to more effectively assimilate hyperspectral radiances.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2020

Models Transport Saharan Dust too Low in the Atmosphere: a Comparison of the MetUM and CAMS Forecasts with Observations

We investigate the dust forecasts from two operational global atmospheric models in comparison with in situ and remote sensing measurements obtained during the AERosol properties – Dust (AER-D) field campaign. Airborne elastic backscatter lidar measurements were performed on board the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements during August 2015 over the eastern Atlantic, and they permitted us to characterise the dust vertical distribution in detail, offering insights on transport from the Sahara. They were complemented with airborne in situ measurements of dust size distribution and optical properties, as well as datasets from the Cloud–Aerosol Transport System (CATS) spaceborne lidar and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We compare the airborne and spaceborne datasets to operational predictions obtained from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The dust aerosol optical depth predictions from the models are generally in agreement with the observations but display a low bias. However, the predicted vertical distribution places the dust lower in the atmosphere than highlighted in our observations. This is particularly noticeable for the MetUM, which does not transport coarse dust high enough in the atmosphere or far enough away from the source.We also found that both model forecasts underpredict coarse-mode dust and at times overpredict fine-mode dust, but as they are fine-tuned to represent the observed optical depth, the fine mode is set to compensate for the underestimation of the coarse mode. As aerosol–cloud interactions are dependent on particle numbers rather than on the optical properties, this behaviour is likely to affect their correct representation. This leads us to propose an augmentation of the set of aerosol observations available on a global scale for constraining models, with a better focus on the vertical distribution and on the particle size distribution. Mineral dust is a major component of the climate system; therefore, it is important to work towards improving how models reproduce its properties and transport mechanisms.

Debbie OSullivan↗

NASA NTRS2014

Sport Transition of JPSS VIIRS Imagery for Night-time Applications

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program and NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) work within the NOAA/Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Ground to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the VIIRS instrument. Very similar to MODIS, the VIIRS instrument provides many high‐resolution visible and infrared channels in a broad spectrum. In addition, VIIRS is equipped with a low‐light sensor that is able to detect light emissions from the land and atmosphere as well as reflected sunlight by the lunar surface. This band is referred to as the Day‐Night Band due to the sunlight being used at night to see cloud and topographic features just as one would typically see in day‐time visible imagery. NWS forecast offices that collaborate with SPoRT and CIRA have utilized MODIS imagery in operations, but have longed for more frequent passes of polar‐orbiting data. The VIIRS instrument enhances SPoRT collaborations with WFOs by providing another day and night‐time pass, and at times two additional passes due to its large swath width. This means that multi‐spectral, RGB imagery composites are more readily available to prepare users for their use in GOES‐R era and high‐resolution imagery for use in high‐latitudes is more frequently able to supplement standard GOES imagery within the SPoRT Hybrid GEO‐LEO product. The transition of VIIRS also introduces the new Day‐Night Band capability to forecast operations. An Intensive Evaluation Period (IEP) was conducted in Summer 2013 with a group of "Front Range" NWS offices related to VIIRS night‐time imagery. VIIRS single‐channel imagery is able to better analyze the specific location of fire hotspots and other land features, as well as provide a more true measurement of various cloud and aerosol properties than geostationary measurements, especially at night. Viewed within the SPoRT Hybrid imagery, the VIIRS data allows forecasters to better interpret the more frequent, but coarse GOES Imagery. Night‐time Microphysics and Dust RGB Imagery provides cloud analysis of cloud height, thickness, and composition in order for operational applications such as separating fog from low clouds, dust plume detection, and determining precipitating clouds in radar-void/ blocked regions. The Day‐Night Band has a particular benefit to seeing light from cities, fires, or other emissions as well as the reflection of moonlight off of clouds and smoke plumes, given the right lunar phase and angle. Examples from the VIIRS transition and IEP will be presented.

Fuell, Kevin↗

DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting with Regularized Constrained Quantile Regression Averaging and Bootstrapping Techniques

Probabilistic solar power forecasting (SPF) plays an essential role in optimizing power-grid operations by quantifying the forecast uncertainty. To improve the accuracy and robustness of probabilistic SPF, this paper introduces the regularized constrained quantile regression averaging (rCQRA) method to combine outputs from multiple PSPF models. In addition, a bootstrapping method was used to quantify model uncertainty, providing insights into the reliability and significance of each ensemble component. To evaluate its efficacy, the proposed rCQRA method is used to integrate four PSPF methods. The resulting SPF models are trained and validated using a real-world six-year dataset from a rooftop solar plant in the USA. The performance of the proposed rCQRA method is evaluated and compared with two benchmark methods under three categories of weather conditions. It is shown that the rCQRA method has superior performance in its forecast reliability, sharpness, and accuracy.

Ensemble learning, probabilistic solar power forec↗

NASA NTRS1993

Aviation Weather Program (AWP)

The Aviation Weather Program (AWP) combines additional weather observations, improved forecast technology, and more efficient distribution of information to pilots, controllers, and automated systems to improve the weather information provided to the air traffic control system, pilots, and other users of aviation weather information. Specific objectives include the needs to: improve airport and en-route capacity by accurate, high resolution, timely forecasts of changing weather conditions affecting airport and en-route operations; improve analyses and forecasts of upper-level winds for efficient flight planning and traffic management; and increase flight safety through improved aviation weather hazard forecasting (e.g. icing, turbulence, severe storms, microbursts, or strong winds). The AWP would benefit from participation in a cooperative multiscale experiment by obtaining data for: evaluation of aviation weather forecast products, analysis of four dimensional data assimilation schemes, and experimental techniques for retrieving aerosol and other visibility parameters. A multiscale experiment would also be helpful to AWP by making it possible to evaluate the added benefit of enhanced data sets collected during the experiment on those forecast and analysis products. The goals of the Coperative Multiscale Experiment (CME) are an essential step in attaining the long-term AWP objective of providing two-to-four hour location-specific forecasts of significant weather. Although the possibility of a funding role for the AWP in the CME is presently unclear, modest involvement of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)/AWP personnel could be expected.

Foote, Brant↗

NASA NTRS2019

Synthesis of Ocean Observations Using Data Assimilation for Operational, Real-Time and Reanalysis Systems: A More Complete Picture of the State of the Ocean

Ocean data assimilation is increasingly recognized as crucial for the accuracy of realtime ocean prediction systems and historical re-analyses. The current status of ocean data assimilation in support of the operational demands of analysis, forecasting and reanalysis is reviewed, focusing on methods currently adopted in operational and realtime prediction systems. Significant challenges associated with the most commonly employed approaches are identified and discussed. Overarching issues faced by ocean data assimilation are also addressed, and important future directions in response to scientific advances, evolving and forthcoming ocean observing systems and the needs of stakeholders and downstream applications are discussed.

modeling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Air Quality Forecasting at Sub-City Scale by Combining Models, Satellites, and Surface Measures

While there are a variety of sources for air quality information, no one source simultaneously allows for high accuracy, low bias, fine spatial resolution, wide spatial coverage, high temporal frequency, and the capability for near-term forecasting of air quality. Global models, like the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System -Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) model, provide global coverage and forecasting capabilities, but operate at relatively coarse spatial resolution and require ground-truthing with in-situ data. Polar-orbiting satellite data products, like those of the ESA TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), provide higher-spatial-resolution remote sensing of atmospheric composition, but are limited by cloud cover and overpass times and report column-integrated quantities. Surface measurements, both from regulatory-grade monitors and low-cost networks, measure “nose-level” air quality, but may not represent concentration variability across large spatial domains, and (in the case of low-cost sensors) are subject to interference and biases. There exists a great potential to combine these diverse data sources together, using the strengths of some to offset the weaknesses of others to build a more comprehensive picture of air quality. This presentation will summarize results from ongoing efforts to produce such a combined forecast, with application case studies for surface-level Nitrogen Dioxide forecasting in several major US cities. Furthermore, we will examine the relative impacts and benefits of different data sources on the forecasting accuracy at different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we will examine the potential for integrating low-cost sensors into such a system, both in terms of using these integrated air quality estimates as a baseline from which to calibrate networks of low-cost sensors in the field, and in terms of using dense networks of low-cost sensors to refine the spatial resolution of integrated air quality forecasts.

Air Quality↗