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At least 451 records · Page 25

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NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Dynamic Coastal Response to Sea-level Rise Modifies Inundation Likelihood

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 sq km of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

Climate-change impacts↗

NASA NTRS2017

Collaborative, Rapid Mapping of Water Extents During Hurricane Harvey Using Optical and Radar Satellite Sensors

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, bringing with it unprecedented amounts of rainfall and record flooding. In times of natural disasters of this nature, emergency responders require timely and accurate information about the hazard in order to assess and plan for disaster response. Due to the extreme flooding impacts associated with Hurricane Harvey, delineations of water extent were crucial to inform resource deployment. Through the USGS's Hazards Data Distribution System, government and commercial vendors were able to acquire and distribute various satellite imagery to analysts to create value-added products that can be used by these emergency responders. Rapid-response water extent maps were created through a collaborative multi-organization and multi-sensor approach. One team of researchers created Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) water extent maps using modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2017), processed by ESA. This group used backscatter images, pre-processed by the Alaska Satellite Facility's Hybrid Pluggable Processing Pipeline (HyP3), to identify and apply a threshold to identify water in the image. Quality control was conducted by manually examining the image and correcting for potential errors. Another group of researchers and graduate student volunteers derived water masks from high resolution DigitalGlobe and SPOT images. Through a system of standardized image processing, quality control measures, and communication channels the team provided timely and fairly accurate water extent maps to support a larger NASA Disasters Program response. The optical imagery was processed through a combination of various band thresholds and by using Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Water Index (MNDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and cloud masking. Several aspects of the pre-processing and image access were run on internal servers to expedite the provision of images to analysts who could focus on manipulating thresholds and quality control checks for maximum accuracy within the time constraints. The combined results of the radar- and optical-derived value-added products through the coordination of multiple organizations provided timely information for emergency response and recovery efforts.

SERVIR↗

NASA NTRS2020

Deepti: Deep-Learning-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation System

Tropical cyclones are one of the costliest natural disasters globally because of the wide range of associated hazards. Thus, an accurate diagnostic model for tropical cyclone intensity can save lives and property. There are a number of existing techniques and approaches that diagnose tropical cyclone wind speed using satellite data at a given time with varying success. This paper presents a deep learning-based objective, diagnostic estimate of tropical cyclone intensity from infrared satellite imagery with 13.24 kt Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). In addition, a visualization portal in a production system is presented that displays deep learning output and contextual information for end users, one of the first of its kind.

Manil Maskey↗

DOE OSTI2020

Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468

Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Guidance for Designing Safety into Urban Air Mobility: Hazard Analysis Techniques

The national airspace system is exceptionally safe, specifically in terms of commercial air traffic operations. The introduction of innovative aircraft (such as electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles) undergoing novel operations (such as for an urban air passenger carrying mission) is a potential disruptor to the current means of regulating and ensuring the safety of air travel. The aviation industry and associated regulatory bodies are adapting their approaches to assuring system safety to enable these new paradigms. However, any system safety analysis requires that a hazard assessment be performed. In this work, we consider the Functional Hazard Assessment (FHA) and Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) techniques for hazard assessment and evaluate whether they can be used in a complementary fashion for regulatory approval purposes. We perform an FHA and an STPA on an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicle undergoing an urban air mobility (UAM) passenger carrying reference scenario and present excerpts of this analysis. We then draw parallels between the techniques and highlight elements where they naturally reinforce to each other’s results, specifically in the consideration of hazard severity with respect to flight phases, the design of hazard mitigations, and the applicability of the results to all types of regulatory approvals (e.g., type certification, operational approval, and crew training).

Mallory S Graydon↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches to Analyzing Pipeline Incidents in the United States (2010–2024)

This study applies machine learning methods to analyze natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States using the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Gas Distribution Incident Dataset (2010–2024). The dataset includes over 600 variables describing incident characteristics, infrastructure attributes, and contributing factors associated with unintentional gas releases. The objective is to assess whether these features can reliably predict the underlying cause of pipeline failures. Multinomial logistic regression and Random Forest models were developed to classify incident causes, including excavation damage, corrosion, equipment failure, and natural forces. Results show that excavation damage is both the most frequent and most predictable cause, with models achieving strong performance for this category. However, when excavation damage is excluded, model accuracy declines significantly, with some models performing near random levels. Across all approaches, severe class imbalance and limited variability in key predictors constrain predictive performance. Pipeline age and diameter emerge as the most influential variables, but they provide insufficient discriminatory power to distinguish among less frequent failure types. These findings indicate that non-excavation-related incidents are rare, heterogeneous, and weakly represented in the dataset, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning classification. Overall, this study highlights the structural limitations of the PHMSA dataset for predictive modeling and underscores the need for improved data balance and feature enrichment. The results reinforce excavation damage prevention as the most impactful strategy for reducing pipeline incidents.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Interfaces for Automated Vehicle Services - A Municipality Perspective

As Automated Vehicle (AV) services proliferate, data sharing between AV operators and municipal agents is assuming greater importance. Information on the dynamic nature of the road system such as incidents to avoid, weather hazards (such as flooding), construction and detours, as well as active safety concerns (e.g. - riots) is important for AV operators. Such information cannot be directly sensed from a vehicle's sensor array, but instead must be communicated in a timely and trustworthy channel. Municipalities are interested in pushing this information to AV operators to support emergency response efforts, reduce traffic in construction zones, and generally improve operation of the system. Similarly, information on vehicle safety such as disengagements, as well as critical information on the use of roadway system (trips, origin and destination patterns) are important performance factors for municipalities to understand utilization and plan for appropriate infrastructure. As mobility shifts to on-demand options, the need for safe and coordinated pick-up and drop-off zones will increase (potentially reducing parking needs). For all of these reasons, communication flows between AV operators and municipalities are becoming increasingly important. This paper investigates the functions, emerging practices and protocols for sharing of such critical data, and identifies gaps in and challenges in existing practices. Additionally, case studies are used to highlight the impacts of data sharing between AV operators and municipalities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1965

Solar cosmic ray events

Nature of charged particle fluxes in vicinity of earth to estimate hazard to Apollo astronauts due to solar cosmic ray events

RADIATION HAZARD↗

NASA NTRS1972

Manned space flight nuclear system safety. Volume 1: base nuclear system safety

The mission and terrestrial nuclear safety aspects of future long duration manned space missions in low earth orbit are discussed. Nuclear hazards of a typical low earth orbit Space Base mission (from natural sources and on-board nuclear hardware) have been identified and evaluated. Some of the principal nuclear safety design and procedural considerations involved in launch, orbital, and end of mission operations are presented. Areas of investigation include radiation interactions with the crew, subsystems, facilities, experiments, film, interfacing vehicles, nuclear hardware and the terrestrial populace. Results of the analysis indicate: (1) the natural space environment can be the dominant radiation source in a low earth orbit where reactors are effectively shielded, (2) with implementation of safety guidelines the reactor can present a low risk to the crew, support personnel, the terrestrial populace, flight hardware and the mission, (3) ten year missions are feasible without exceeding integrated radiation limits assigned to flight hardware, and (4) crew stay-times up to one year are feasible without storm shelter provisions.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1976

A comparison of spacecraft penetration hazards due to meteoroids and manmade earth-orbiting objects

The ability of a typical double-walled spacecraft structure to protect against penetration by high-velocity incident objects is reviewed. The hazards presented by meteoroids are compared to the current and potential hazards due to manmade orbiting objects. It is shown that the nature of the meteoroid number-mass relationship makes adequate protection for large space facilities a conceptually straightforward structural problem. The present level of manmade orbiting objects (an estimated 10,000 in early 1975) does not pose an unacceptable risk to manned space operations proposed for the near future, but it does produce penetration probabilities in the range of 1-10 percent for a 100-m diameter sphere in orbit for 1,000 days. The number-size distribution of manmade objects is such that adequate protection is difficult to achieve for large permanent space facilities, to the extent that future restrictions on such facilities may result if the growth of orbiting objects continues at its historical rate.

Brooks, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Thermal Infrared Geologic Remote Sensing Research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Remotely sensed thermal infrared spectral data have great potential to improve rock type discrimination if the factors that control thermal infrared spectral reflection and emission can be better understood. Improved rock type discrimination in turn leads to better and more efficient geologic mapping which is carried out in the exploration, assessment and documentation of mineral resources and geologic hazards. Geologic maps also contribute significantly to the understanding of the natural history of the Earth and neighboring planetary bodies.

Bartholomew, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Particle Radiation Sources, Propagation and Interactions in Deep Space, at Earth, the Moon, Mars, and Beyond: Examples of Radiation Interactions and Effects

Particle radiation has significant effects for astronauts, satellites and planetary bodies throughout the Solar System. Acute space radiation hazards pose risks to human and robotic exploration. This radiation also naturally weathers the exposed surface regolith of the Moon, the two moons of Mars, and other airless bodies, and contributes to chemical evolution of planetary atmospheres at Earth, Mars, Venus, Titan, and Pluto. We provide a select review of recent areas of research covering the origin of SEPs from coronal mass ejections low in the corona, propagation of events through the solar system during the anomalously weak solar cycle 24 and important examples of radiation interactions for Earth, other planets and airless bodies such as the Moon.

Schwadron, Nathan A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Simulator Demonstration and Certification Implications of Powertrain Failure Mitigation in a Partial Turboelectric Aircraft

The Single-aisle Turboelectric AiRCraft with Aft Boundary Layer propulsor (STARC ABL) is a concept aircraft with a partial turboelectric powertrain. The complexity and integrated nature of the partial turboelectric powertrain architecture presents failure modes and hazards not found in conventional aircraft propulsion designs. Previously, various electrical and mechanical faults and associated recovery modes were demonstrated in a dynamic model of the powertrain. It was shown that certain faults were catastrophic without recovery logic, due specifically to the interaction of the subsystems. However, in each case, the logic, known as a reversionary control mode, enabled continued operation with assumed sufficient thrust to maintain safe flight. The current work evaluates the powertrain faults and recovery strategies using a full aircraft model in a piloted flight simulator, and places it in the context of current regulatory practice. Faults initiated in flight were successfully mitigated, with the accommodated aircraft subsequently evaluated against certification requirements for three-engine aircraft, which were shown to be appropriate for the STARC-ABL configuration.

STARC-ABL↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Simulator Demonstration and Certification Implications of Powertrain Failure Mitigation in a Partial Turboelectric Aircraft

STARC-ABL↗

NASA NTRS2023

Flight Simulator Demonstration and Certification Implications of Powertrain Failure Mitigation in a Partial Turboelectric Aircraft

certification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formational History and Geomorphic Preservation of Sea Level Highstands Over the Last 150 ky Near Cape Canaveral, Florida, USA

Cape Canaveral, Florida, is perhaps one of the most important stretches of coastline in the United States of America (USA) due to its critical strategic role in the pursuit of space exploration and as the locus of advanced technological innovation. Due to its geographical setting, the entirety of Cape Canaveral, including its infrastructure, facilities, and important natural habitats (e.g., wetlands, estuaries and dunes) is vulnerable to coastal hazards such as continued sea level rise, storm surges, erosion and flooding. As such, accurate sea level characterization and coastal resiliency predictions are essential to promoting long-term coastal planning and sustainability in the area. This study aims to better understand the temporal and spatial evolution of this area with the purpose of more accurately documenting historical sea level fluctuations and calibrating more localized projections at this site. The Cape Canaveral coastline is situated on a passive margin mostly affected by oceanic (sea level change and wave impact) and atmospheric (aeolian) alteration. This sector is part of the east Florida coast microtidal (1.2 m) setting and low wave energy (1.2-1.6 m and 6.1-8.2 sec for average significant waves) regime and is defined by a well delineated set of beach ridge or cape systems. While the name “Cape Canaveral” is often used as a generic term to describe the geographic area, it is actually an amalgamation or complex of multiple preserved capes. The preserved Cape Canaveral beach ridge plain has largely documented the paleo-sea level highstand history over the last 150 ky. High-resolution mapping of these beach ridges is completed using GPS, LiDAR, aerial, as well as satellite imagery. In order to reconstruct the formational history of the Cape Kennedy Complex and the preserved record of sea level highstands, these detailed geomorphological observations are integrated with OSL and C14 dating techniques. The chronological framework delineated by the OSL dates coupled with detailed geomorphological mapping allows for the creation of high-resolution calibrated site-specific sea level curves that reflect the local environmental and geological conditions. This refinement has the potential to improve the understanding of past sea level variability which is crucial for predicting future trends and assessing the impacts on coastal regions such as Cape Canaveral.

geomorphology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remote methane sensor for emissions from pipelines and compressor stations using chirped-laser dispersion spectroscopy

Leak rates of methane (CH 4 ) from the natural gas supply chain result in lost profit from unsold product, public safety and property concerns due to potential explosion hazards, and a potentially large source of economic damages from legal liabilities. Yet large measurement challenges exist in identifying and quantifying CH 4 leak rates along the vast number and type of components in the natural gas supply chain. This is particularly true of the “midstream” components involved in the gathering, processing, compression, transmission, and storage of natural gas. This project developed and deployed new advances in chirped laser dispersion spectroscopy (CLaDS) to detect methane leaks from pipelines, compressor stations, and other midstream infrastructure from a remote position (standoff detection). The system was deployed from a van to measure fugitive methane leaks from a local compressor station as a proof-of-concept. The technique was validated through mobile laboratory measurements with in-situ sensors as well as controlled releases of methane. The system also mapped a plume from a controlled release of methane by tracking a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) that carried a corner cube retroreflector which reflected the beam back to the instrument. The drone-based system quantified a leak rate to within 30% of the actual rate and localized the emission location within 5 m of the actual release location at standoff distances of 25-45 m. This sUAS-reflector tracking approach has benefits for mapping leak locations remotely using small drones flying around a facility. Benefits of a commercial sensor with these capabilities include reductions of leaks for pipeline operators (more profit), earlier detection of leaks to avoid catastrophic explosion hazards for public health and to mitigate property damage, and reduced methane emissions to the atmosphere (improving air quality).

03 NATURAL GAS↗