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At least 451 records · Page 25

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

Dissecting the Genetic Architecture of Carbon Partitioning in Sorghum Using Multiscale Phenotypes

Carbon partitioning in plants may be viewed as a dynamic process composed of the many interactions between sources and sinks. The accumulation and distribution of fixed carbon is not dictated simply by the sink strength and number but is dependent upon the source, pathways, and interactions of the system. As such, the study of carbon partitioning through perturbations to the system or through focus on individual traits may fail to produce actionable developments or a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying this complex process. Using the recently published sorghum carbon-partitioning panel, we collected both macroscale phenotypic characteristics such as plant height, above-ground biomass, and dry weight along with microscale compositional traits to deconvolute the carbon-partitioning pathways in this multipurpose crop. Multivariate analyses of traits resulted in the identification of numerous loci associated with several distinct carbon-partitioning traits, which putatively regulate sugar content, manganese homeostasis, and nitrate transportation. Using a multivariate adaptive shrinkage approach, we identified several loci associated with multiple traits suggesting that pleiotropic and/or interactive effects may positively influence multiple carbon-partitioning traits, or these overlaps may represent molecular switches mediating basal carbon allocating or partitioning networks. Conversely, we also identify a carbon tradeoff where reduced lignin content is associated with increased sugar content. The results presented here support previous studies demonstrating the convoluted nature of carbon partitioning in sorghum and emphasize the importance of taking a holistic approach to the study of carbon partitioning by utilizing multiscale phenotypes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamical Approach Study of Spurious Numerics in Nonlinear Computations

The last two decades have been an era when computation is ahead of analysis and when very large scale practical computations are increasingly used in poorly understood multiscale complex nonlinear physical problems and non-traditional fields. Ensuring a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of these numerical simulations could play a major role in furthering the design, understanding, affordability and safety of our next generation air and space transportation systems, and systems for planetary and atmospheric sciences, and in understanding the evolution and origin of life. The need to guarantee PAR becomes acute when computations offer the ONLY way of solving these types of data limited problems. Employing theory from nonlinear dynamical systems, some building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in PAR of numerical simulations have been revealed by the author and world expert collaborators in relevant fields. Five building blocks with supporting numerical examples were discussed. The next step is to utilize knowledge gained by including nonlinear dynamics, bifurcation and chaos theories as an integral part of the numerical process. The third step is to design integrated criteria for reliable and accurate algorithms that cater to the different multiscale nonlinear physics. This includes but is not limited to the construction of appropriate adaptive spatial and temporal discretizations that are suitable for the underlying governing equations. In addition, a multiresolution wavelets approach for adaptive numerical dissipation/filter controls for high speed turbulence, acoustics and combustion simulations will be sought. These steps are corner stones for guarding against spurious numerical solutions that are solutions of the discretized counterparts but are not solutions of the underlying governing equations.

Yee, H. C.↗

DeepM&Mnet: Inferring the electroconvection multiphysics fields based on operator approximation by neural networks

Electroconvection is a multiphysics problem involving coupling of the flow field with the electric field as well as the cation and anion concentration fields. Here, we use electroconvection as a benchmark problem to put forward a new data assimilation framework, the DeepM&Mnet, for simulating multiphysics and multiscale problems at speeds much faster than standard numerical methods using pre-trained neural networks. We first pre-train DeepONets that can predict independently each field, given general inputs from the rest of the fields of the coupled system. DeepONets can approximate nonlinear operators and are composed of two sub-networks, a branch net for the input fields and a trunk net for the locations of the output field. DeepONets, which are extremely fast, are used as building blocks in the DeepM&Mnet and form constraints for the multiphysics solution along with some sparse available measurements of any of the fields. We demonstrate the new methodology and document the accuracy of each individual DeepONet, and subsequently we present two different DeepM&Mnet architectures that infer accurately and efficiently 2D electroconvection fields for unseen electric potentials. Furthermore, the DeepM&Mnet framework is general and can be applied for building any complex multiphysics and multiscale models based on very few measurements using pre-trained DeepONets in a “plug-and-play” mode.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗

Challenges of conventional iterative all-atom and coarse-grained multiscale molecular dynamics

In this work, we evaluate the biomolecular dynamics behaviors when conventionally iterating between all-atom (AA) and coarse-grained (CG) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations over multiple cycles. We implemented the workflow to iterate between AA and CG in OpenMM, namely the iterative multiscale MD (iMMD) simulation workflow. In particular, we aim to identify practical applications for iterating between AA and CG simulations in a conventional manner without any constraints or model modifications. We evaluate the iMMD workflow on four representative systems, spanning folding of two soluble proteins and protein-protein as well as protein-lipid interactions of two membrane proteins. We observe that iteration between AA and CG representations could help the soluble proteins exit undesirable metastable states to fold, resulting from random protein structural distortions due to cycling. Consequently, the most reliable use of iterative AA and CG simulations appears to be to accelerating complex lipid mixing for membrane-bound protein systems rather than sampling protein conformational space. Our work explores the practical usages and limitations for iterative AA and CG simulations using readily available AA and CG force fields. The evaluated iMMD workflow in OpenMM is made available at https://github.com/lanl/iMMD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of the Conductive Networks on Solid‐State Battery Operation

The micromorphology of composite cathodes is known to play a vital role in determining all-solid-state battery (ASSB) performance. However, much of our current understanding is derived from empirical observations, lacking a deeper mechanistic foundation. The “rocking chair” concept of battery chemistry requires maintaining charge neutrality, emphasizing the necessity of examining electrode micromorphology from the perspective of conductive networks. This study systematically investigates the microscopic electrochemical impacts of conductive network micromorphology by varying the Li + -to-e − channel ratio in cathodes comprising LiNbO 3 -coated LiNi 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 O 2 , Li 6 PS 5 Cl, and carbon fibers. Utilizing multiscale synchrotron-based spectro-microscopy, we unravel that unbalanced Li + and e − conducting channels intensify charge polarization within active cathode particles and accelerate their degradation. A further model system with X-ray nano-tomography resolved e − and Li + channels indicates that spatially uniform and well-paired Li + and e − conducting channels are highly desirable as they could promote more uniform lithiation/delithiation, mitigating microscopic electrochemical polarization. Electrode-scale X-ray holotomography analysis reveals that the impact of conductive networks is particle-size-dependent, with smaller cathode particles being more significantly affected. These findings provide mechanistic insights into the interplay between conductive networks and all-solid-state battery operation, laying the groundwork for rational design and optimization of cathode architectures in future solid-state battery technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physics-Guided, Physics-Informed, and Physics-Encoded Neural Networks and Operators in Scientific Computing: Fluid and Solid Mechanics

Abstract Advancements in computing power have recently made it possible to utilize machine learning and deep learning to push scientific computing forward in a range of disciplines, such as fluid mechanics, solid mechanics, materials science, etc. The incorporation of neural networks is particularly crucial in this hybridization process. Due to their intrinsic architecture, conventional neural networks cannot be successfully trained and scoped when data are sparse, which is the case in many scientific and engineering domains. Nonetheless, neural networks provide a solid foundation to respect physics-driven or knowledge-based constraints during training. Generally speaking, there are three distinct neural network frameworks to enforce the underlying physics: (i) physics-guided neural networks (PgNNs), (ii) physics-informed neural networks (PiNNs), and (iii) physics-encoded neural networks (PeNNs). These methods provide distinct advantages for accelerating the numerical modeling of complex multiscale multiphysics phenomena. In addition, the recent developments in neural operators (NOs) add another dimension to these new simulation paradigms, especially when the real-time prediction of complex multiphysics systems is required. All these models also come with their own unique drawbacks and limitations that call for further fundamental research. This study aims to present a review of the four neural network frameworks (i.e., PgNNs, PiNNs, PeNNs, and NOs) used in scientific computing research. The state-of-the-art architectures and their applications are reviewed, limitations are discussed, and future research opportunities are presented in terms of improving algorithms, considering causalities, expanding applications, and coupling scientific and deep learning solvers.

Computer Science↗

A Kalman Filter for Mass Property and Thrust Identification of the Spin-Stabilized Magnetospheric Multiscale Formation

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission consists of four identically instrumented, spin-stabilized observatories, elliptically orbiting the Earth in a tetrahedron formation. For the operational success of the mission, on-board systems must be able to deliver high-precision orbital adjustment maneuvers. On MMS, this is accomplished using feedback from on-board star sensors in tandem with accelerometers whose measurements are dynamically corrected for errors associated with a spinning platform. In order to determine the required corrections to the measured acceleration, precise estimates of attitude, rate, and mass-properties are necessary. To this end, both an on-board and ground-based Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter (MEKF) were formulated and implemented in order to estimate the dynamic and quasi-static properties of the spacecraft.

Formation Flying↗

Kalman Filter for Mass Property and Thrust Identification (MMS)

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission consists of four identically instrumented, spin-stabilized observatories, elliptically orbiting the Earth in a tetrahedron formation. For the operational success of the mission, on-board systems must be able to deliver high-precision orbital adjustment maneuvers. On MMS, this is accomplished using feedback from on-board star sensors in tandem with accelerometers whose measurements are dynamically corrected for errors associated with a spinning platform. In order to determine the required corrections to the measured acceleration, precise estimates of attitude, rate, and mass-properties is necessary. To this end, both an on-board and ground-based Multiplicative Extended Kalman Filter (MEKF) were formulated and implemented in order to estimate the dynamic and quasi-static properties of the spacecraft.

Maneuver and Attitude Dynamics↗

Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Digital Twin for U.S. Cities

Over 50 participants—including national laboratory researchers, academic scholars, industry representatives, and stakeholders from the City of Chicago—convened in person and online to assess the readiness and potential of an Artificial Intelligence–Enabled Digital Twin (AIDT) for urban systems, with the Greater Chicago area serving as the benchmark location. The workshop underscored that the Chicago Urban Integrated Field Laboratory provides an unparalleled testbed for developing and validating urban DTs—combining dense, multiscale observations, advanced physics-based and AI modeling capabilities, and strong stakeholder and industry engagement. Discussions highlighted available datasets, AI architectures for high resolution, multipurpose urban DTs, key applications, and near- and long-term priorities for scaling this framework within Chicago and to other U.S. and global cities.

AIDT↗

The Magnetospheric Multiscale Constellation

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission is the fourth mission of the Solar Terrestrial Probe (STP) program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The MMS mission was launched on March 12, 2015. The MMS mission consists of four identically instrumented spin-stabilized observatories which are flown in formation to perform the first definitive study of magnetic reconnection in space. The MMS mission was presented with numerous technical challenges, including the simultaneous construction and launch of four identical large spacecraft with 100 instruments total, stringent electromagnetic cleanliness requirements, closed-loop precision maneuvering and pointing of spinning flexible spacecraft, on-board GPS based orbit determination far above the GPS constellation, and a flight dynamics design that enables formation flying with separation distances as small as 10 km. This paper describes the overall mission design and presents an overview of the design, testing, and early on-orbit operation of the spacecraft systems and instrument suite.

Space mission design↗

Mechanical properties and deformation mechanisms of single crystal Mg micropillars subjected to high-strain-rate C-axis compression

Here, the mechanical properties and deformation mechanisms of single crystal magnesium under c-axis quasi-static and high-strain rate compressions are investigated through in situ scanning electron microscope (SEM) experiments and post-mortem transmission electron microscope (TEM) characterization. The findings revealed that ductility and high rates of hardening are preserved for pillars as large as 15 μm. Furthermore, rate effects result in a mild increase in flow stress with plastic deformations controlled primarily by the slip of type dislocations. Importantly and in contrast to other literature reports, plastic deformation occurs in the absence of twining. As the strain increases and plastic deformation exceeds about 4%, crystal rotation activates basal slip, <$\mathrm{a}$> type dislocations, resulting in a more rate independent flow stress. TEM observation on micropillars compressed at a strain rate of 250/s, revealed the activation of {${11}$$\bar{2}$$\bar{2}$} < $\bar{1}$$\bar{1}23$ > slip systems and high mobility of screw dislocations as major contributors to plastic strains in excess of 10% without fracture. These findings are relevant to the design of lightweight materials used in transportation systems, e.g., selection of material grain size. Moreover, the experimental data here reported provides the materials science community with a unique opportunity to validate discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) formulations employed in multiscale design of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fractals and Spatial Methods for Mining Remote Sensing Imagery

The rapid increase in digital remote sensing and GIS data raises a critical problem -- how can such an enormous amount of data be handled and analyzed so that useful information can be derived quickly? Efficient handling and analysis of large spatial data sets is central to environmental research, particularly in global change studies that employ time series. Advances in large-scale environmental monitoring and modeling require not only high-quality data, but also reliable tools to analyze the various types of data. A major difficulty facing geographers and environmental scientists in environmental assessment and monitoring is that spatial analytical tools are not easily accessible. Although many spatial techniques have been described recently in the literature, they are typically presented in an analytical form and are difficult to transform to a numerical algorithm. Moreover, these spatial techniques are not necessarily designed for remote sensing and GIS applications, and research must be conducted to examine their applicability and effectiveness in different types of environmental applications. This poses a chicken-and-egg problem: on one hand we need more research to examine the usability of the newer techniques and tools, yet on the other hand, this type of research is difficult to conduct if the tools to be explored are not accessible. Another problem that is fundamental to environmental research are issues related to spatial scale. The scale issue is especially acute in the context of global change studies because of the need to integrate remote-sensing and other spatial data that are collected at different scales and resolutions. Extrapolation of results across broad spatial scales remains the most difficult problem in global environmental research. There is a need for basic characterization of the effects of scale on image data, and the techniques used to measure these effects must be developed and implemented to allow for a multiple scale assessment of the data before any useful process-oriented modeling involving scale-dependent data can be conducted. Through the support of research grants from NASA, we have developed a software module called ICAMS (Image Characterization And Modeling System) to address the need to develop innovative spatial techniques and make them available to the broader scientific communities. ICAMS provides new spatial techniques, such as fractal analysis, geostatistical functions, and multiscale analysis that are not easily available in commercial GIS/image processing software. By bundling newer spatial methods in a user-friendly software module, researchers can begin to test and experiment with the new spatial analysis methods and they can gauge scale effects using a variety of remote sensing imagery. In the following, we describe briefly the development of ICAMS and present application examples.

Lam, Nina↗

The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT): Current Features And Adding Custom Functionality

The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is a software system for trajectory optimization, mission analysis, trajectory estimation, and prediction developed by NASA, the Air Force Research Lab, and private industry. GMAT's design and implementation are based on four basic principles: open source visibility for both the source code and design documentation; platform independence; modular design; and user extensibility. The system, released under the NASA Open Source Agreement, runs on Windows, Mac and Linux. User extensions, loaded at run time, have been built for optimization, trajectory visualization, force model extension, and estimation, by parties outside of GMAT's development group. The system has been used to optimize maneuvers for the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) and ARTEMIS missions and is being used for formation design and analysis for the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS).

Conway, Darrel J.↗

Deformation accommodating periodic computational domain for a uniform velocity gradient

Many multiscale methods for granular materials use periodic computational domains to consider particle scale interactions and then calculate the stress to drive the continuum scale calculations. For problems involving large material deformations, the computation domain often needs to be reinitialized because of the distortion, causing the loss of the history information of the system. This work introduces an algorithm to accommodate a large deformation of the material while maintaining the computational domain cuboid to avoid the domain reinitialization during the computation. The algorithm uses a rotating frame of reference, in which the velocity gradient can be represented by an upper triangular matrix. The deformation caused by the upper triangular matrix is treated by the image system implied in the periodicity to maintain the computational domain cuboid. The effect from the rotation of the reference frame is considered using the inertial forces. Finally, simulations of simple and pure shear motions are carried out to illustrate the algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improving the particle dry deposition scheme in the CMAQ photochemical modeling system

Dry deposition of atmospheric aerosols in large-scale models is a critical, but highly uncertain, sink process with a strong dependence on particle size, meteorological conditions, and land surface properties. This study investigates the particle dry deposition scheme implemented in the standard Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v5.2.1, characterizes its underlying parameterized components with comparison to a similar scheme in a contemporary regional-scale model, and proposes two updated schemes that are then evaluated with available ambient particle deposition velocity (V d ) measurements. Both updated schemes reduce the surprisingly strong dependence of deposition velocity on the aerosol mode width, with one scheme further introducing a dependence on vegetation coverage that is broadly consistent with variability in observations between vegetated and non-vegetated surfaces. Compared to the base scheme, the updated scheme with vegetation dependence increases V d for submicron particles and decreases it for larger particles by an average of 37% and –66%, respectively. This scheme performs statistically better than the base scheme, reducing fractional biases by 56%–97% for vegetated land-use types and has roughly equivalent performance over water. The base and updated schemes are tested with three annual CMAQ (v5.2.1) simulations for the year 2011; predicted ambient aerosol concentrations are evaluated with routine monitoring network observations and predicted dry deposition fluxes are evaluated with data from the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET). The updated scheme with vegetation dependence reduces negative fractional biases for PM 10 by 41% and positive fractional biases for PM 2.5 organic carbon by 15%. This scheme has been incorporated into the most recent publicly accessible versions of CMAQ (v5.3 and beyond) to replace the scheme used in previous versions of CMAQ (v4.5 through v5.2.1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conductivity and Transference Numbers in Lithium Salt-Doped Block Copolymeric Ionic Liquid Electrolytes

We present multiscale molecular dynamics simulation results comparing the conductivity and transference numbers in lithium salt-doped polymeric ionic liquids (PolyILs) and the lamellar phases of block copolymeric ionic liquids (coPolyILs). In both systems, the anion mobilities decreased with salt loading. Lithium ions exhibited negative mobilities in both systems, but the magnitudes decreased with an increase in salt concentrations. More interestingly, the anion mobilities were lower in the lamellar systems compared to homopolymers in magnitude, but the lithium ion mobilities and transference numbers were less negative in such systems. We examine the anion–cation and lithium–anion interactions in terms of radial distribution functions, coordination characteristics, and ion-pair relaxation timescales. Based on such analyses, we rationalize the salt concentration dependencies as a result of the interfacial interactions in lamellar systems and the competition between anion–cation and lithium–anion interactions in both PolyILs and coPolyILs. Altogether, the findings presented in this study demonstrate that the modified anion–cation and lithium–anion interactions in the microphase-separated coPolyILs may provide a strategy for realizing higher lithium ion transference numbers relative to the homopolymeric counterparts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗