Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Monte Carlo Modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

1D model of tokamak scrape-off layer and divertor plasmas: Dimensionless parameters and the results of numerical simulations

Solutions of a 1D model of the scrape-off layer and a divertor plasma in a tokamak are analyzed on the basis of dimensionless parameters governing the physics of both plasma and neutral transport and atomic physics processes. Numerical simulations based on fluid plasma and Monte Carlo neutral modeling confirm earlier results obtained with simplified analytic considerations and numerical simulations performed with fluid neutral description and demonstrate bifurcation of plasma parameters. Further, these simulations also confirm that the major physical reasons for the rollover of the plasma flux to the target, which is the key feature of the phenomenon of divertor plasma detachment, are the impurity radiation loss and plasma recombination. It is suggested that simulations of the edge plasma based on dimensionless parameters provide a powerful tool for checking the consistency of the physics incorporated in existing complex 2D codes used for edge plasma modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic angular scattering models of elastic electron-neutral collisions for Monte Carlo plasma simulations

Many laboratory and industrial plasma applications require accurate modeling techniques to understand the interplay between microscopic and macroscopic processes. A prime example of this interplay is how particle and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation codes describe angular scattering of electrons following elastic scattering events. The forward peaked nature of high energy electron elastic scattering is relatively trivial to accurately describe in plasma simulations. However, for lower energy collisions, which produce near isotropic or backward peaked differential cross sections, there is not a strong consensus among the plasma modeling community on how to best describe these angular scattering trends. Here, in this study, we propose a systematic method to approximate the aforementioned non-trivial angular scattering behavior with a formula that can be readily implemented in particle-in-cell (PIC) and/or MC plasma simulation codes. The present approach is specifically applied to fusion relevant atomic hydrogen and helium, as well as for molecular hydrogen, and results are also applicable to the atomic isotopes and homonuclear molecular isotopologues of these species. Comparisons between the present angular distribution function and benchmark scattering data were used to validate the proposed models. In addition, two-term Boltzmann calculations and PIC direct simulation MC simulations revealed that the proposed angular distribution function is accurate, agreeing very well with benchmark convergent close-coupling scattering calculations, and electron transport measurements. These studies confirmed that the present angular distribution function model can be utilized without the need of renormalization to the momentum transfer cross section (as opposed to using the elastic scattering integrated cross section), which has been suggested by several studies in order to correct for deficient angular scattering models, and to agree with transport measurements. Hence, the present anisotropic angular scattering model can be utilized to accurately model the momentum transfer as well as the electron trajectories of elastic collisions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Monte Carlo computer simulations of Venus equilibrium and global resurfacing models

Two models have been proposed for the resurfacing history of Venus: (1) equilibrium resurfacing and (2) global resurfacing. The equilibrium model consists of two cases: in case 1, areas less than or equal to 0.03 percent of the planet are spatially randomly resurfaced at intervals of less than or greater than 150,000 yr to produce the observed spatially random distribution of impact craters and average surface age of about 500 m.y.; and in case 2, areas greater than or equal to 10 percent of the planet are resurfaced at intervals of greater than or equal to 50 m.y. The global resurfacing model proposes that the entire planet was resurfaced about 500 m.y. ago, destroying the preexisting crater population and followed by significantly reduced volcanism and tectonism. The present crater population has accumulated since then with only 4 percent of the observed craters having been embayed by more recent lavas. To test the equilibrium resurfacing model we have run several Monte Carlo computer simulations for the two proposed cases. It is shown that the equilibrium resurfacing model is not a valid model for an explanation of the observed crater population characteristics or Venus' resurfacing history. The global resurfacing model is the most likely explanation for the characteristics of Venus' cratering record. The amount of resurfacing since that event, some 500 m.y. ago, can be estimated by a different type of Monte Carolo simulation. To date, our initial simulation has only considered the easiest case to implement. In this case, the volcanic events are randomly distributed across the entire planet and, therefore, contrary to observation, the flooded craters are also randomly distributed across the planet.

Dawson, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

Sachs, Rainer K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamical tuning of the chemical potential to achieve a target particle number in grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations

We present a method to facilitate Monte Carlo simulations in the grand canonical ensemble given a target mean particle number. The method imposes a fictitious dynamics on the chemical potential, to be run concurrently with the Monte Carlo sampling of the physical system. Corrections to the chemical potential are made according to time-averaged estimates of the mean and variance of the particle number, with the latter being proportional to thermodynamic compressibility. Here, we perform a variety of tests, and in all cases find rapid convergence of the chemical potential—inexactness of the tuning algorithm contributes only a minor part of the total measurement error for realistic simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mercury's Na Exosphere from MESSENGER Data

MESSENGER entered orbit about Mercury on March 18, 2011. Since then, the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UWS) channel of MESSENGER's Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) has been observing Mercury's exosphere nearly continuously. Daily measurements of Na brightness were fitted with non-uniform exospheric models. With Monte Carlo sampling we traced the trajectories of a representative number of test particles, generally one million per run per source process, until photoionization, escape from the gravitational well, or permanent sticking at the surface removed the atom from the simulation. Atoms were assumed to partially thermally accommodate on each encounter with the surface with accommodation coefficient 0.25. Runs for different assumed source processes are run separately, scaled and co-added. Once these model results were saved onto a 3D grid, we ran lines of sight from the MESSENGER spacecraft :0 infinity using the SPICE kernels and we computed brightness integrals. Note that only particles that contribute to the measurement can be constrained with our method. Atoms and molecules produced on the nightside must escape the shadow in order to scatter light if the excitation process is resonant-light scattering, as assumed here. The aggregate distribution of Na atoms fits a 1200 K gas, with a PSD distribution, along with a hotter component. Our models constrain the hot component, assumed to be impact vaporization, to be emitted with a 2500 K Maxwellian. Most orbits show a dawnside enhancement in the hot component broadly spread over the leading hemisphere. However, on some dates there is no dawn/dusk asymmetry. The portion of the hot/cold source appears to be highly variable.

Killen, Rosemary M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallelized Carbon Oxidation and Surface Recession Model in Direct-Simulation Monte Carlo Code, SPARTA

Ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials for spacecraft are composites that often consist of a carbon-based reinforcement and a polymeric matrix. During Earth re-entry, they endure high-temperature oxidation and surface recession. Oxidation is an important mechanism for ablation, sometimes leading to the weakening, spallation, or failure of the oxidized fibers at the surface and in the char layer. However, more details are required including accurate material properties of the fiber microstructure, whether the fibers recede homogenously or localized at pits, and the role of pyrolysis outgassing in order to evaluate the role oxidation plays in the degradation and failure mechanisms of these materials. In this work, we demonstrate a parallelizable oxidation-driven ablation model developed for detailed, large-scale simulations in the DSMC code SPARTA. We also develop robust algorithms which handle the conservation of the surface state after an ablation step. Finally, we verify our model for both simple and more complex chemistry as well as microstructures with reaction statistics, oxidation depth calculations, and detailed visualization of oxidation-induced material recession at the microscale.

V Arias↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shape of atomic nuclei in heavy ion collisions

In the hydrodynamic model description of heavy ion collisions, the final-state anisotropic flows v n are linearly related to the strengths of the multipole shape of the distribution of nucleons in the transverse plane, ε n : v n ∝ε n . The ε n , for n=1, 2, 3, 4, are sensitive to the shapes of the colliding ions, characterized by the quadrupole β 2 , octupole β 3 , and hexadecapole β 4 deformations. This sensitivity is investigated analytically and also in a Monte Carlo Glauber model. One observes a robust linear relation, $\langleε^{2}_{n}\rangle$ = $a^{'}_{n} + b^{'}_{n}β^{2}_{n}$, for events in a fixed centrality. The $\langleε^{2}_{1}\rangle$ has a contribution from β 3 and β 4 , and $\langleε^{2}_{3}\rangle$ from β 4 . In ultracentral collisions, there are little cross contributions between β 2 and ε 3 and between β 3 and ε 2 , but clear cross contributions are present in noncentral collisions. Additionally, $\langleε^{2}_{n}\rangle$ are insensitive to nonaxial shape parameters such as the triaxiality. This is good news because the measurements of v 2 , v 3 , and v 4 can be used to constrain simultaneously the β 2 , β 3 , and β 4 values. This is best done by comparing two colliding ions with similar mass numbers and therefore nearly identical $a^{'}_{n}$, to obtain a simple equation that relates the β n of the two species. Finally, this opens up the possibility to map the shape of the atomic nuclei at a timescale (<10 –24 s) much shorter than probed by low-energy nuclear structure physics (<10 –21 s), which ultimately may provide information complementary to that obtained in the nuclear structure experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Transmission of Optical Lightning Signals Through Complex 3‐D Cloud Scenes

Abstract Space‐based lightning imagers have shown that complex cloud scenes consisting of multiple tall convective features, anvil clouds, and warm boundary cloud layers are illuminated by lightning in many different ways depending on where the lightning occurs and how energetic it is. Modifications to the optical lightning signals from radiative transfer in the cloud medium can lead to reductions in detection efficiency and location accuracy for these instruments and can also cause some of the optical signals that are detected to have unexpected spatial energy distributions. In this study, we perform Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations of optical lightning emissions in clouds with complex 3‐D geometries to shed some light on the origins of certain irregular radiance patterns that have been recorded from orbit. We show that diffuse reflections off nearby cloud faces can explain lightning signals in nonelectrified clouds, tall clouds can result in poor optical transmission and suppressed radiances that could lead to missed events and that particularly favorable viewing conditions can cause otherwise normal lightning to produce a superbolt that is orders of magnitude brighter than the same flash seen from a different angle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ferroelectric Ordering in Nanosized PbTiO 3

The insight into the three-dimensional configuration of ferroelectric ordering in ferroelectric nanomaterials is motivated by the application of the development of functional nanodevices and the structural designing. However, the atomic deciphering of the spatial distribution of ordered structure remains challenging for the limitation of dimension and probing techniques. Here, in this paper, a neutron pair distribution function (nPDF) was utilized to analyze the spontaneous polarization distribution of zero-dimensional PbTiO 3 nanoparticles in three dimensions, via the application of reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) modeling. The comprehensive identification with transmission electron microscopy verified the linear characteristics of polarization along the c-axis in the main body, while electric polarization distribution on the surface was enhanced abnormally. In addition, the correlation of dipole vectors extending to three unit cells below the surface is retained. This work shows an application of the micro/macroscale information to effectively decode the polarization structure of nanoferroelectrics, providing new views of designing nanoferroelectric devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assimilating microwave cloudy observations into NASA GEOS model using a novel Bayesian Monte Carlo technique

Despite the importance of clouds and their influence on atmospheric water and energy balance, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers systematically exclude cloud information from the assimilation process and only assimilate clear-sky radiances (Janiskov´a et al. 2012). In order to ensure that only clear sky radiances are assimilated, strict cloud detection thresholds are applied before radiances are fed into data assimilation (DA) systems. This process not only excludes a large portion of satellite radiances, but causes loss of information in the regions that are of high interest to meteorologists and are most challenging for weather forecasts (Errico et al. 2007; Haddad et al. 2015). Although, in recent years there has been great advances in the operational weather forecasting, the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC), especially the intensity of TCs, remains challenging. According to Aksoy et al. (2013), in addition to the model deficiencies, another important factor that contributes to this challenge includes lack of observations in the peripheral environment (rain- bands) of TCs mainly because of the selective assimilation of existing observations. Satellite observations provide more than 90 % of the input data for the initialization of NWP models but more than 75 % of satellite observations are discarded due to the cloud contamination as well as land, snow, and ice emissivity issues (Bauer et al. 2010).

Rainband↗
DOE OSTI2020

Migration energy barriers and diffusion anisotropy of point defects on tungsten surfaces

We report tungsten is one of the most promising candidates for plasma-facing materials in future fusion devices, owing to its high performance under extreme irradiation conditions. However, irradiation-induced surface morphology varies significantly, depending on the irradiation type, fluence, and flux. Therefore, it is critical to examine the dynamics of point defects on tungsten (W) surfaces to understand how irradiation affects surface morphology. In this study, we employ the Self-Evolving Atomistic Kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) method to search for potential migration paths of point defects on W (1 0 0), (1 1 0) and (1 1 1) surfaces. The first-principles calculations are then used to accurately determine the migration energy barriers. The obtained paths and barriers are incorporated into a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to determine trajectories and diffusivities, which are described by diffusion tensors to demonstrate their anisotropic features. Multiple diffusion mechanisms have been identified on different surfaces, with various anisotropy factors. Particularly, point defects on the W (1 1 0) surface have the highest diffusivities, with anisotropy factors independent of temperatures. In comparison, the anisotropy of the W (1 0 0) surface decreases as temperature increases, while the W (1 1 1) surface is isotropic for point defects. This study provides insights into defect transport properties on different surfaces, which are essential for understanding the early stages of irradiation-induced microstructural evolutions and surface morphology of tungsten.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive tau-leaping methods for microscopic-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

Traditional Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) approaches, rooted in Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm, become computationally demanding in systems with a large range of timescales. The goal of this work is to propose and study new adaptive lattice-KMC time integration strategies for spatially non-uniform systems. To that end, two novel adaptive tau-leaping methods and their corresponding time integration strategies are developed based on the idea of the “n-fold” direct KMC method. These strategies allow for the simultaneous execution of multiple reactions, advancing time by adaptively selected coarse increments. We present numerical experiments comparing the proposed methods with existing approaches in a catalytic surface kinetics application involving ammonia decomposition.

Bimolecular reactions↗
DOE OSTI2022

Engineering defect energy landscape of CoCrFeNi high-entropy alloys by the introduction of additional dopants

The concept of high-entropy alloys (HEAs) focusing on tuning the overall chemical complexity represents a novel alloy design strategy. In contrast, alloying of a metallic matrix with minor doping elements with limited and localized tunability has been a common practice to improve material performance. Combining the idea of globally engineering defect energy landscape in HEAs and the localized doping strategy in dilute alloys, in this work, we explore doping effects of minor elements in a HEA matrix to further enhance the overall and localized chemical tunability, aiming to improve its irradiation resistance. Specifically, we study the influence of minor Al, Cu, Ti, and Pd substitutional doping elements on defect energetics in a CoCrFeNi model HEA based on density-functional theory (DFT) calculations. The DFT results indicate that the formation and migration energies of vacancies can be strongly influenced when a dopant is introduced at the first nearest neighbor shells around a vacancy. On the other hand, interstitial energetics are only slightly affected. Among the four elements, Ti and Pd generally decrease vacancy formation energies and increase vacancy migration energies more significantly than Al and Cu. The doping effects become more pronounced when the concentration of the substitutional dopants increases. Based on the energy distributions obtained from DFT, we build a kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) model to assess the impact of dopants on vacancy-mediated diffusivity in the doped HEAs. Our results suggest that Ti and Pd can lower the tracer diffusivity in the considered HEAs and act as trapping sites, whereas Cu may enhance the atomic transport. This work indicates that substitutional doping in HEAs is an effective strategy in metallurgy to further tune the defect and transport properties of complex alloys.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (–0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗