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NASA NTRS1992

Modeling orbital changes on tectonic time scales

Geologic time series indicate significant 100 ka and 400 ka pre-Pleistocene climate fluctuations, prior to the time of such fluctuations in Pleistocene ice sheets. The origin of these fluctuations must therefore depend on phenomena other than the ice sheets. In a previous set of experiments, we tested the sensitivity of an energy balance model to orbital insolation forcing, specifically focusing on the filtering effect of the Earth's geography. We found that in equatorial areas, the twice-yearly passage of the sun across the equator interacts with the precession index to generate 100 ka and 400 ka power in our modeled time series. The effect is proportional to the magnitude of land in equatorial regions. We suggest that such changes may reflect monsoonal variations in the real climate system, and the subsequent wind and weathering changes may transfer some of this signal to the marine record. A comparison with observed fluctuations of Triassic lake levels is quite favorable. A number of problems remain to be studied or clarified: (1) the EBM experiments need to be followed up by a limited number of GCM experiments; (2) the sensitivity to secular changes in orbital forcing needs to be examined; (3) the possible modifying role of sedimentary processes on geologic time series warrants considerably more study; (4) the effect of tectonic changes on Earth's rotation rate needs to be studied; and (5) astronomers need to make explicit which of their predictions are robust and geologists and astronomers have to agree on which of the predictions are most testable in the geologic record.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Indian Ocean analyses

The background and goals of Indian Ocean thermal sampling are discussed from the perspective of a national project which has research goals relevant to variation of climate in Australia. The critical areas of SST variation are identified. The first goal of thermal sampling at this stage is to develop a climatology of thermal structure in the areas and a description of the annual variation of major currents. The sampling strategy is reviewed. Dense XBT sampling is required to achieve accurate, monthly maps of isotherm-depth because of the high level of noise in the measurements caused by aliasing of small scale variation. In the Indian Ocean ship routes dictate where adequate sampling can be achieved. An efficient sampling rate on available routes is determined based on objective analysis. The statistical structure required for objective analysis is described and compared at 95 locations in the tropical Pacific and 107 in the tropical Indian Oceans. XBT data management and quality control methods at CSIRO are reviewed. Results on the mean and annual variation of temperature and baroclinic structure in the South Equatorial Current and Pacific/Indian Ocean Throughflow are presented for the region between northwest Australia and Java-Timor. The mean relative geostrophic transport (0/400 db) of Throughflow is approximately 5 x 106 m3/sec. A nearly equal volume transport is associated with the reference velocity at 400 db. The Throughflow feeds the South Equatorial Current, which has maximum westward flow in August/September, at the end of the southeasterly Monsoon season. A strong semiannual oscillation in the South Java Current is documented. The results are in good agreement with the Semtner and Chervin (1988) ocean general circulation model. The talk concludes with comments on data inadequacies (insufficient coverage, timeliness) particular to the Indian Ocean and suggestions on the future role that can be played by Data Centers, particularly with regard to quality control of data as research bodies are replaced by operational bodies in the Global Ocean Observing System.

Meyers, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1993

Comment on 'A note on the possible connection between the El Chichon eruption and ocean production in the northwest Arabian Sea during 1982' by A. E. Strong

Strong argues that the El Chichon aerosol cloud resulted in relaxed southwest monsoon circulation and the dramatically reduced seasonal phytoplankton bloom documented in the northwestern Arabian Sea during summer and fall of 1982. It is argued here that Strong's ideas suggest a clear demonstration of an atmosphere-ocean interaction with implications for the ocean's biological CO2 pump. Strong's paper highlights the fundamentally different effects of volcanic aerosols on satellite infrared and visible band observations of the ocean.

Brock, John C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Three years of rainfall over the Indian Ocean

Monthly rain falling on the Indian Ocean is mapped for the period 1979 through 1981 by means of observations of the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer. Both stationary and mobile parts were found in the pattern of rain. The stationary part consisted of three zonal and two meridional bands. Only one, the band along and south of the equator, maintained a strong presence through all seasons. A north equatorial counterpart to this south equatorial band also was persistent, but weak. The mobile part of the pattern took the form of a wave. The locus of this wave was an eastward-tilted figure eight, which straddled the equator. The wave moved clockwise along the north loop of the figure eight, counterclockwise along the south loop. The crest of the wave crossed the equator from south to north in May or June and crossed the equator from north to south between August and October. Along its path the equatorial bands were alternately amplified and damped, and the transient bands were activated and suppressed. The effect of the bands and wave was to produce a strong 'monsoon' (annual cycle, summer peak) signature in rain falling over both the northeastern and southwestern reaches of the Indian Ocean.

Martin, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cloud clusters and superclusters over the oceanic warm pool

A study aimed at examining the size distributions of cloud clusters and the temperature distributions within them as functions of location, year, phase of the ISV, and time of day is considered. IR satellite images of tropical convection over the oceanic warm pool were processed to reveal cloud clusters, connected areas with cloud-top temperatures lower than a given threshold value. Results were obtained for a very cold threshold (208 K), corresponding roughly to the radar echo area within Australian monsoon cloud clusters, and for a moderately cold threshold (235 K) frequently used in climatic rainfall estimation.

Mapes, Brian E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Gravity waves generated by a tropical cyclone during the STEP tropical field program - A case study

Overflights of a tropical cyclone during the Australian winter monsoon field experiment of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) show the presence of two mesoscale phenomena: a vertically propagating gravity wave with a horizontal wavelength of about 110 km and a feature with a horizontal scale comparable to that of the cyclone's entire cloud shield. The larger feature is fairly steady, though its physical interpretation is ambiguous. The 110-km gravity wave is transient, having maximum amplitude early in the flight and decreasing in amplitude thereafter. Its scale is comparable to that of 100-to 150-km-diameter cells of low satellite brightness temperatures within the overall cyclone cloud shield; these cells have lifetimes of 4.5 to 6 hrs. These cells correspond to regions of enhanced convection, higher cloud altitude, and upwardly displaced potential temperature surfaces. The temporal and spatial distribution of meteorological variables associated with the 110-km gravity wave can be simulated by a slowly moving transient forcing at the anvil top having an amplitude of 400-600 m, a lifetime of 4.5-6 hrs, and a size comparable to the cells of low brightness temperature.

Pfister, L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The vertical structure of diabatic heating associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation simulated by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres climate model

The diabatic heating structure of the nine-layer Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres model of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is illustrated with composite charts made for those times when this low-frequency mode reaches its maximum and minimum amplitudes. These composite charts compare the vertically integrated diabatic heating with potential functions, the vertical distribution of diabatic heating with the east-west mass flux function in the tropics, and the vertical profiles of diabatic heating at the centers of maximum and minimum MJO amplitude. Three interesting features of the model MJO's diabatic heating are revealed: (1) the maximum heating rate of this low-frequency mode is located over the Asian monsoon region and its amplitude is about a half of the maximum value of the seasonal mean heating rate in this region, (2) the vertical diabatic heating rate profile has a maximum at 500 mbar and resembles the seasonal mean total heating profile, and (3) the total diabatic heating is for the most part composed of the latent heat released by cumulus convection.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

NASA NTRS1993

A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A case study of the intraseasonal oscillation traversing the TOGA-COARE LSD

The paper presents examination of tree intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISOs) that occurred during the southern summer season (December 1, 1985 - February 28, 1986) traversing the Large-Scale Domain (LSD) TOGA-COARE, the region which also plays an important role in ENSO, Australian monsoon, and extratropical circulations. Data presented include Hovmoeller diagrams of 5-day running means of 250-mb velocity potential anomalies and OLR anomalies; graphs of five-day running means of OLR in precipitable water (W) per sq m, averaged over 10 x 10 deg boxes centered on 5 S and (1) 145 E, (2) 155 E, (3) 165 E, and (4) 165 D, indicating the midpoint of each ISO; and vertical profiles of zonal wind in m/s averaged over the time period that each ISO spends in the 10 x 10 deg box centered at 5 S, and 175 E and 145 E.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The influence of orography on the transport of atmospheric constituents

Given the fact that martian orography varies over a range of two scale heights (cf., about one scale height on Earth), it is thought that on Mars some aspects of the circulation should be affected to a large degree by the presence of orography. Initial results from two numerical models are presented that illustrate the effect of orography on cross-equatorial transport on Mars. On Earth, western boundary currents are found not only in the oceans as one would expect, but also in the troposphere, the most notable example being the East African Jet, which has an important effect on the monsoon circulation of the Eastern Indian Ocean. Two models were used for this investigation: a simple GCM (hereafter referred to as the SGCM); and a simple one-level barotropic model (BM). The SGCM solves the hydrostatic primitive equations on a sphere by representing model variables by spherical harmonics in the horizontal, with nonlinear terms being calculated in grid-point space. In the vertical, the model uses the sigma coordinate system in finite-difference form. The model represents the radiative processes in the atmosphere by a Newtonian relaxation to a specified zonal mean temperature state and surface drag by Rayleigh friction in the lowest model level.

Joshi, Manoj M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Estimating rainfall in the tropics using the fractional time raining

The relationship between the fractional time raining and tropical rainfall amount is investigated using raingage data and a point process model of tropical rainfall. Both the strength and the nature of the relationship are dependent upon the resolution of the data used to estimate the fractional time raining. It is found that highly accurate estimates of rainfall amounts over periods of one month or greater can be obtained from the fractional time raining so long as high-time-resolution data are used. It is demonstrated that the relationship between the fractional time raining and monthly atoll rainfall is quasi-homogeneous within the monsoon trough region of the equatorial western Pacific.

Morrissey, Mark L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Studies of African wave disturbances with the GISS GCM

Simulations made with the general circulation model of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS GCM) run at 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude horizontal resolution are analyzed to determine the model's representation of African wave disturbances. Waves detected in the model's lower troposphere over northern Africa during the summer monsoon season exhibit realistic wavelengths of about 2200 km. However, power spectra of the meridional wind show that the waves propagate westward too slowly, with periods of 5-10 days, about twice the observed values. This sluggishness is most pronounced during August, consistent with simulated 600-mb zonal winds that are only about half the observed speeds of the midtropospheric jet. The modeled wave amplitudes are strongest over West Africa during the first half of the summer but decrease dramatically by September, contrary to observational evidence. Maximum amplitudes occur at realistic latitudes, 12 deg - 20 deg N, but not as observed near the Atlantic coast. Spectral analyses suggest some wave modulation of precipitation in the 5-8 day band, and compositing shows that precipitation is slightly enhanced east of the wave trough, coincident with southerly winds. Extrema of low-level convergence west of the wave troughs, coinciding with northerly winds, were not preferred areas for simulated precipitation, probably because of the drying effect of this advection, as waves were generally north of the humid zone. The documentation of African wave disturbances in the GISS GCM is a first step toward considering wave influences in future GCM studies of Sahel drought.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the effects of filtering on convective-core statistics

Analysis of convective events north of Australia during the equatorial Monsoon Experiment (EMEX) reinforces accumulating evidence that convective cores over the tropical ocean are weak, with small diameters and vertical velocities. Superposition of smaller-scale turbulence on the convective core signal could yield artificially small cores, and thus produce sampling bias by aircraft. To investigate this potential source of bias, a side-by-side analysis of filtered and unfiltered vertical velocity data was performed while investigating the EMEX convective cores. Data were collected by the NOAA P3 and NCAR Electra using filtered (Graham filter) and non-filtered cores. The effects of filtering vertical velocity data to identify updraft and downdraft cores were noticeable but smaller than expected. Updraft cores had a vertical velocity greater than 1 m/sec for at least 500 m, and downdraft cores were defined analogously so that the filter eliminated events with less than a 500 m apparent diameter. Median and 10 percent core diameters were increased by 20-25 percent at most, with larger increases at higher levels (fewer small events). The maximum vertical velocity was changed only by changing the individual events in the distribution, but changes were detectable. At the lower levels, where many small, weak cores are introduced by filtering, average vertical velocity for the updraft cores was lowered by up to around 10 percent. Mass flux was changed the least, since diameter and mean vertical velocity respond to filtering in opposite ways. The filtering procedure increased total mass flux slightly due to inclusion of more upward moving air into the sample.

Lemone, Margaret A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Sensitivity of a GCM climate simulation to differences in continental versus maritime cloud drop size

Extensive observations indicate a distinct difference between maritime and continental effective drop size, r(sub e), for warm clouds. The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM2) is used to explore the sensitivity of differentiating between continental and maritime r(sub e) on the simulated climate. The results of this study indicate that the smaller drop size over continents leads to a reduction of surface-absorbed solar radiation from 20 to 60 W/sq m. This reduction in surface solar flux leads to a cooling of the continents by up to -3.5 K. The reduction in surface solar flux and temperature also leads to a reduction in latent heat flux and precipitation over land. In the January simulation, there is a significant shift in tropical precipitation associated with the Australian monsoon. This shift leads to a response in the extra tropical geopotential height field over the western United States. All of these changes reduce biases in the current version of CCM2.

Kiehl, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Relationships between evaprorative fraction and remotely sensed vegetation index and microwave brightness temperature for semiarid rangelands

Measurements of the microwave brightness temperature (TB) with the Pushbroom Microwave Radiometer (PBMR) over the Walnut Gulch Experiment Watershed were made on selected days during the MONSOON 90 field campaign. The PBMR is an L-band instrument (21-cm wavelength) that can provide estimates of near-surface soil moisture over a variety of surfaces. Aircraft observations in the visible and near-infrared wavelengths collected on selected days also were used to compute a vegetation index. Continuous micrometeorological measurements and daily soil moisture samples were obtained at eight locations during experimental period. Two sites were instrumented with time domain reflectometry probes to monitor the soil moisture profile. The fraction of available energy used for evapotranspiration was computed by taking the ratio of latent heat flux (LE) to the sum of net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G). This ratio is commonly called the evaporative fraction (EF) and normally varies between 0 and 1 under daytime convective conditions with minimal advection. A wide range of environmental conditions existed during the field campaign, resulting in average EF values for the study area varying from 0.4 to 0.8 and values of TB ranging from 220 to 280 K. Comparison between measured TB and EF for the eight locations showed an inverse relationship. Other days were included in the analysis by estimating TB with the soil moisture data. Because transpiration from the vegetation is more strongly coupled to root zone soil moisture, significant scatter in this relationship existed at high values of TB or dry near-surface soil moisture conditions. The variation in EF under dry near-surface soil moisture conditions was correlated to the amount of vegetation cover estimated with a remotely sensed vegetation index. These findings indicate that information obtained from optical and microwave data can be used for quantifying the energy balance of semiarid areas. The microwave data can indicate when soil evaporation is significantly contributing to EF, while the optical data is helpful for quantifying the spatial variation in EF due to the distribution of vegetation cover.

Kustas, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The vertical profile of radar reflectivity of convective cells: A strong indicator of storm intensity and lightning probability?

Reflectivity data from Doppler radars are used to construct vertical profiles of radar reflectivity (VPRR) of convective cells in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in three different environmental regimes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CP-3 and CP-4 radars are used to calculate median VPRR for MCSs in the Oklahoma-Kansas Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central in 1985. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere radar in Darwin, Australia, is used to calculate VPRR for MCSs observed both in oceanic, monsoon regimes and in continental, break period regimes during the wet seasons of 1987/88 and 1988/89. The midlatitude and tropical continental VPRRs both exhibit maximum reflectivity somewhat above the surface and have a gradual decrease in reflectivity with height above the freezing level. In sharp contrast, the tropical oceanic profile has a maximum reflectivity at the lowest level and a very rapid decrease in reflectivity with height beginning just above the freezing level. The tropical oceanic profile in the Darwin area is almost the same shape as that for two other tropical oceanic regimes, leading to the conclustion that it is characteristic. The absolute values of reflectivity in the 0 to 20 C range are compared with values in the literature thought to represent a threshold for rapid storm electrification leading to lightning, about 40 dBZ at -10 C. The large negative vertical gradient of reflectivity in this temperature range for oceanic storms is hypothesized to be a direct result of the characteristically weaker vertical velocities observed in MCSs over tropical oceans. It is proposed, as a necessary condition for rapid electrification, that a convective cell must have its updraft speed exceed some threshold value. Based upon field program data, a tentative estimate for the magnitude of this threshold is 6-7 m/s for mean speed and 10-12 m/s for peak speed.

Zipser, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Deep cumulonimbus cloud systems in the tropics with and without lightning

The thunderstorm frequency over the oceans during the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment is quantified by examination of over 20,000 surface hourly observations from research ships. The overall thunderstorm frequency is one thunderstorm day per ship per month. There were many examples of intense mesoscale systems, such as squall lines, passing over the ships, extending to 13-17 km in altitude, but that nevertheless produce few reports of lightning. This reinforces the idea, based on data from other tropical ocean regions and from global satellite data, that in spite of the ubiquitous 'hot towers' over tropical oceans, marine cumulonimbus produce little lightning. Climatological data from the monsoon regions of the Tropics are analyzed to reveal that during periods of onshore flow and heavy rainfall the oceanic regime of high rainfall but little lightning moves onshore. A rain-thunderstorm ratio is defined and used to characterize convective rainfall regimes as continental (relatively little) or maritime (relatively great) rainfall compared to the number of thunderstorm days. In regions such as West Africa and south Asia, the seasonal rainfall peak is actually accompanied by a thunderstorm minimum. It is further suggested that the data support the idea, not original here, that vertical velocities in oceanic cumulonimbus clouds tend to be low compared with continental clouds. It is hypothesized that most oceanic storms have updrafts weaker than a posssible threshold value, below which the supercooled liquid water, large ice particles, and ice-ice collisions are not present in the mixed-phase region in sufficient concentrations for electrification leading to lightning.

Zipser, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Variability of moisture in the upper troposphere as inferred from TOVS satellite observations and the ECMWF model analyses in 1989

Large-scale variability of moisture in the upper troposphere is examined using TIROS (Television Infrared Observation Satellite) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) satellite observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analyses from 1989 in the latitude band from 40 deg N to 40 S. To compare these dissimilar datasets, upwelling radiances were computed for the 6-7 micrometer water vapor band from the ECMWF temperature and moisture analyses, and these computed radiances were compared to the corresponding TOVS satellite observations. The ECMWF-based radiances reproduce the general locations and seasonal cycle of the TOVS-observed moisture features, particularly after an improved convective parameterization scheme was adopted by ECMWF in May 1989. However, the ECMWF analysis scheme still results in much milder lateral moisture gradients and seasonal contrasts than indicated by the TOVS observations. Seasonally, the upper troposphere in each hemisphere dries in winter and moistens in summer, but there are regions in each hemisphere that run counter to this seasonal trend, apparently depending on continental- and monsoon-scale dynamics. Dynamically, the TOVS-observed regions of significant subtropical dryness are correlated with persistent subsidence indicated by ECMWF 300-mb vertical velocity analyses. The TOVS radiance observations indicate large variations in space and time of the upper-tropospheric moisture field, which are not fully captured by the ECMWF analyses.

Salathe, Eric P., Jr.↗