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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

EMPDF : inferring the Milky Way mass with data-driven distribution function in phase space

We introduce the emPDF (empirical distribution function), a novel dynamical modelling method that infers the gravitational potential from kinematic tracers with optimal statistical efficiency under the minimal assumption of steady state. emPDF determines the best-fitting potential by maximizing the similarity between instantaneous kinematics and the time-averaged phase-space distribution function (DF), which is empirically constructed from observation upon the theoretical foundation of oPDF (Han et al. 2016). This approach eliminates the need for presumed functional forms of DFs or orbit libraries required by conventional DF- or orbit-based methods. emPDF stands out for its flexibility, efficiency, and capability in handling observational effects, making it preferable to the popular Jeans equation or other minimal assumption methods, especially for the Milky Way (MW) outer halo where tracers often have limited sample size and poor data quality. We apply emPDF to infer the MW mass profile using Gaia DR3 data of satellite galaxies and globular clusters, obtaining enclosed masses of M (,r) = 26±8, 46±8, 90±13⁠, and 149±40 x 10 10 M ⊙ at r = 30, 50, 100⁠, and 200 kpc, respectively. These are consistent with the updated constraints from simulation-informed DF fitting (Li et al. 2020). While the simulation-informed DF offers superior precision owing to the additional information extracted from simulations, emPDF is independent of such supplementary knowledge and applicable to general tracer populations. emPDF is currently implemented for tracers with complete 6D kinematics within spherical potentials, but it can potentially be extended to address more general problems.

Astrophysics of Galaxies (astro-ph.GA)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impact of Trucking Network Flow on Preferred Biorefinery Locations in the Southern United States

The impact of the trucking transportation network flow was modeled for the southern United States. The study addresses a gap in existing research by applying a Bayesian logistic regression and Geographic Information System (GIS) geospatial analysis to predict biorefinery site locations. A one-way trucking cost assuming a 128.8 km (80-mile) haul distance was estimated by the Biomass Site Assessment model. The “median family income,” “timberland annual growth-to-removal ratio,” and “transportation delays” were significant in determining mill location. Transportation delays that directly impacted the costs of trucking are presented. Here, a logistic model with Bayesian inference was used to identify preferred site locations, and locations not preferential for a mill location. The model predicted that higher probability locations for smaller biomass mills (feedstock capacity, the size of sawmills) were in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, southeast Mississippi, southern Virginia, western Louisiana, western Arkansas, and eastern Texas. The higher probability locations for large capacity mills (feedstock capacity, the size for pulp and paper mills) were in southeastern Alabama, southern Georgia, central North Carolina, and the Mississippi Delta regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven reduced-order models for port-Hamiltonian systems with operator inference

Hamiltonian operator inference has been developed in Sharma et al. (2022) to learn structure-preserving reduced-order models (ROMs) for Hamiltonian systems. The method constructs a low-dimensional model using only data and knowledge of the functional form of the Hamiltonian. The resulting ROMs preserve the intrinsic structure of the system, ensuring that the mechanical and physical properties of the system are maintained. In this work, we extend this approach to port-Hamiltonian systems, which generalize Hamiltonian systems by including energy dissipation, external input, and output. Based on snapshots of the system’s state and output, together with the information about the functional form of the Hamiltonian, reduced operators are inferred through optimization and are then used to construct data-driven ROMs. To further alleviate the complexity of evaluating nonlinear terms in the ROMs, a hyper-reduction method via discrete empirical interpolation is applied. Accordingly, we derive error estimates for the ROM approximations of the state and output. Lastly, we demonstrate the structure preservation, as well as the accuracy of the proposed port-Hamiltonian operator inference framework, through numerical experiments on a linear mass–spring-damper problem and a nonlinear Toda lattice problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conin

SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2024

OPER: Optimality-Guided Embedding Table Parallelization for Large-scale Recommendation Model

With the sharp increasing volume of user data, Deep Learning Recommendation Model (DLRM) becomes an indispensable infrastructure in large technology companies. However, large-scale DLRM on the multi-GPU platform is still inefficient due to unbalanced workload partitioning and intensive inter-GPU communication. To this end, we propose OPER, an OPtimality guided Embedding table placement for large-scale Recommendation model training and inference. OPER explores the potential of mitigating remote memory access latency in DLRM through fine-grained embedding table placement. Specifically, OPER proposes a theoretical modeling that builds up the relationship between EMT placement and the embedding communication latency in both training and inference. OPER proves the NP hardness of finding the optimal embedding table placement and proposes a heuristic algorithm that yields near optimal placement. OPER implements a SHMEM-based embedding table training system and a unified embedding index mapping to support fine-grained embedding table sharding and placement. Comprehensive experiments reveal that OPER achieves on average 3.4× and 5.1× speedup on training and inference respectively over state-of-the-art DLRM frameworks.

Wang, Zheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of transient conduction in building envelope assemblies: A review

As buildings age, retrofits are becoming an increasingly important topic for the ever-growing and aging existing building stock. To compare designs or evaluate in-service building envelopes, thermal modeling is utilized to evaluate the thermal performance of envelope assemblies; however, it can be difficult to model the thermal performance of as-built assemblies due to degradation or missing documentation. To address this issue, inverse modeling can be applied to infer the properties of as-built envelope assemblies. This paper presents a review of the literature and published methods to model and infer the transient conductive performance of building envelopes. This review serves as a survey of existing transient conduction algorithms to evaluate performance, computational speed, and relevance for inverse modeling applications. In addition to the literature review, this work also evaluates the computational performance of the most prevalent transient conduction algorithms against the ASHRAE 1052RP toolkit to assess inverse modeling potential. This methodology serves as a foundation for future research to characterize the transient thermal performance of as-built building envelope assemblies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

On the galaxy–halo connection in the EAGLE simulation

Empirical models of galaxy formation require assumptions about the correlations between galaxy and halo properties. These may be calibrated against observations or inferred from physical models such as hydrodynamical simulations. In this Letter, we use the EAGLE simulation to investigate the correlation of galaxy size with halo properties. We motivate this analysis by noting that the common assumption of angular momentum partition between baryons and dark matter in rotationally supported galaxies overpredicts both the spread in the stellar mass–size relation and the anticorrelation of size and velocity residuals, indicating a problem with the galaxy–halo connection it implies. We find the EAGLE galaxy population to perform significantly better on both statistics, and trace this success to the weakness of the correlations of galaxy size with halo mass, concentration and spin at fixed stellar mass. Here by, using these correlations in empirical models will enable fine-grained aspects of galaxy scalings to be matched.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE IMPACT OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE INHOMOGENEITIES ON QUIESCENT NEUTRON STAR RADIUS MEASUREMENTS

Fitting the thermal X-ray spectra of neutron stars (NSs) in quiescent X-ray binaries can constrain the masses and radii of NSs. The effect of undetected hot spots on the spectrum, and thus on the inferred NS mass and radius, has not yet been explored for appropriate atmospheres and spectra. A hot spot would harden the observed spectrum, so that spectral modeling tends to infer radii that are too small. However, a hot spot may also produce detectable pulsations. We simulated the effects of a hot spot on the pulsed fraction and spectrum of the quiescent NSs X5 and X7 in the globular cluster 47 Tucanae, using appropriate spectra and beaming for hydrogen atmosphere models, incorporating special and general relativistic effects, and sampling a range of system angles. We searched for pulsations in archival Chandra HRC-S observations of X5 and X7, placing 90% confidence upper limits on their pulsed fractions below 16%. We use these pulsation limits to constrain the temperature differential of any hot spots, and to then constrain the effects of possible hot spots on the X-ray spectrum and the inferred radius from spectral fitting. We find that hot spots below our pulsation limit could bias the spectroscopically inferred radius downward by up to 28%. For Cen X-4 (which has deeper published pulsation searches), an undetected hot spot could bias its inferred radius downward by up to 10%. Improving constraints on pulsations from quiescent LMXBs may be essential for progress in constraining their radii.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An attention-based neural ordinary differential equation framework for modeling inelastic processes

To preserve strictly conservative behavior as well as model the variety of dissipative behavior displayed by solid materials, we propose a significant enhancement to the internal state variable-neural ordinary differential equation (ISV-NODE) framework. In this data-driven, physics-constrained modeling framework internal states are inferred rather than prescribed. The ISV-NODE consists of: (a) a stress model dependent on observable deformation and inferred internal state, and (b) a model of the evolution of the internal states. The enhancements to ISV-NODE proposed in this work are multifold: (a) a partially input convex neural network stress potential provides polyconvexity in terms of observed strain while leaving the inferred state unconstrained, and (b) an internal state flow model uses common latent features to inform novel attention-based gating and drives the flow of internal state only in dissipative regimes. We demonstrated that this architecture can accurately model dissipative and conservative behavior across an isotropic, isothermal elastic-viscoelastic-elastoplastic spectrum with three exemplars, while maintaining fundamental principles by design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-informed semantic inpainting: Application to geostatistical modeling

A fundamental problem in geostatistical modeling is to infer the heterogeneous geological field based on limited measurements and some prior spatial statistics. Semantic inpainting, a technique for image processing using deep generative models, has been recently applied for this purpose, demonstrating its effectiveness in dealing with complex spatial patterns. However, the original semantic inpainting framework incorporates only information from direct measurements, while in geostatistics indirect measurements are often plentiful. In this work, to overcome this limitation, we propose a physics-informed semantic inpainting framework, employing the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) and jointly incorporating the direct and indirect measurements by exploiting the underlying physical laws. Our simulation results for a high-dimensional problem with 512 dimensions show that in the new method, the physical conservation laws are satisfied and contribute in enhancing the inpainting performance compared to using only the direct measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Disentangling Mechanisms That Mediate the Balance Between Stochastic and Deterministic Processes in Microbial Succession

Despite growing recognition that deterministic and stochastic factors simultaneously influence bacterial communities, little is known about mechanisms shifting their relative importance. To better understand underlying mechanisms, we developed a conceptual model linking ecosystem development during primary succession to shifts in the stochastic/deterministic balance. To evaluate the conceptual model we coupled spatiotemporal data on soil bacterial communities with environmental conditions spanning 105 years of salt marsh development. At the local scale there was a progression from stochasticity to determinism due to Na accumulation with increasing ecosystem age, supporting a main element of the conceptual model. At the regional-scale, soil organic matter (SOM) governed the relative influence of stochasticity and the type of deterministic ecological selection, suggesting scale-dependency in how deterministic ecological selection is imposed. Analysis of a new ecological simulation model supported these conceptual inferences. Looking forward, we propose an extended conceptual model that integrates primary and secondary succession in microbial systems.

bacterial succession↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Step Hyperparameter Optimization Method: Accelerating Hyperparameter Search by Using a Fraction of a Training Dataset

Abstract Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is an important step in machine learning (ML) model development, but common practices are archaic—primarily relying on manual or grid searches. This is partly because adopting advanced HPO algorithms introduces added complexity to the workflow, leading to longer computation times. This poses a notable challenge to ML applications, as suboptimal hyperparameter selections curtail the potential of ML model performance, ultimately obstructing the full exploitation of ML techniques. In this article, we present a two-step HPO method as a strategic solution to curbing computational demands and wait times, gleaned from practical experiences in applied ML parameterization work. The initial phase involves a preliminary evaluation of hyperparameters on a small subset of the training dataset, followed by a reevaluation of the top-performing candidate models postretraining with the entire training dataset. This two-step HPO method is universally applicable across HPO search algorithms, and we argue it has attractive efficiency gains. As a case study, we present our recent application of the two-step HPO method to the development of neural network emulators for aerosol activation. Although our primary use case is a data-rich limit with many millions of samples, we also find that using up to 0.0025% of the data—a few thousand samples—in the initial step is sufficient to find optimal hyperparameter configurations from much more extensive sampling, achieving up to 135× speedup. The benefits of this method materialize through an assessment of hyperparameters and model performance, revealing the minimal model complexity required to achieve the best performance. The assortment of top-performing models harvested from the HPO process allows us to choose a high-performing model with a low inference cost for efficient use in global climate models (GCMs).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Foundational Principles for Large-Scale Inference: Illustrations Through Correlation Mining

When can reliable inference be drawn in the ‘‘Big Data’’ context? This article presents a framework for answering this fundamental question in the context of correlation mining, with implications for general large-scale inference. In large-scale data applications like genomics, connectomics, and eco-informatics, the data set is often variable rich but sample starved: a regime where the number n of acquired samples (statistical replicates) is far fewer than the number p of observed variables (genes, neurons, voxels, or chemical constituents). Much of recent work has focused on understanding the computational complexity of proposed methods for ‘‘Big Data.’’ Sample complexity, however, has received relatively less attention, especially in the setting when the sample size n is fixed, and the dimension p grows without bound. To address this gap, we develop a unified statistical framework that explicitly quantifies the sample complexity of various inferential tasks. Sampling regimes can be divided into several categories: 1) the classical asymptotic regime where the variable dimension is fixed and the sample size goes to infinity; 2) the mixed asymptotic regime where both variable dimension and sample size go to infinity at comparable rates; and 3) the purely high-dimensional asymptotic regime where the variable dimension goes to infinity and the sample size is fixed. Each regime has its niche but only the latter regime applies to exa-scale data dimension. We illustrate this high-dimensional framework for the problem of correlation mining, where it is the matrix of pairwise and partial correlations among the variables that are of interest. Correlation mining arises in numerous applications and subsumes the regression context as a special case. We demonstrate various regimes of correlation mining based on the unifying perspective of high-dimensional learning rates and sample complexity for different structured covariance models and different inference tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems

Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the 3-D structure of ignition experiments at the NIF

This study details a model used to infer the 3-D structure of the stagnated hot-spot and shell of inertial confinement fusion implosion experiments at the National Ignition Facility. The model assumes that 3-D low-mode drive perturbations can account for the majority of stagnation asymmetries experimentally observed. It uses an adaptive sampling algorithm to navigate the 24-D input parameter space to find a 3-D x-ray flux asymmetry whose application to an otherwise symmetric implosion results in a consistent match between synthetic and experimental diagnostic observables. The model is applied to a series of experiments and is able to achieve a consistent match for over 41 different observables, providing a high-fidelity reconstruction of the stagnation hot-spot and shell profile.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Automated Posterior Estimation Techniques for Modeling Strong Lenses In Ground-based Survey Data

Current and future ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are predicted to discover thousands to tens of thousands of strong gravitational lenses. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. However, conventional lens modeling techniques are unable to scale up to the sheer number of lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys. Therefore, the use of automated lens analysis techniques is necessary. We demonstrate that machine learning methods can be used to automate the inference of informative model posteriors of strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys with credible uncertainty estimation. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate applications of Neural Posteriors Estima tors (NPEs) and Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lensing system for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We apply a suite of diagnostics (e.g., posterior coverage and SBC) to validate the performance of our methods. We find that NPEs outperform the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust scalable initialization for Bayesian variational inference with multi-modal Laplace approximations

Predictive modeling typically relies on Bayesian model calibration to provide uncertainty quantification. Variational inference utilizing fully independent (“mean-field”) Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions. This simplification is attractive since the number of variational parameters grows only linearly with the number of unknown model parameters. However, the resulting diagonal covariance structure and unimodal behavior can be too restrictive to provide useful approximations of intractable Bayesian posteriors that exhibit highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors for these problems can be obtained by considering the family of Gaussian mixtures. Gaussian mixtures are capable of capturing multiple modes and approximating any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy, while maintaining some analytical tractability. Unfortunately, variational inference using Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. The existence of multiple local minima due to strong nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference present additional complications, These challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and computational scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with a global optimization stage in model parameter space. In this step, local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace approximation. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. The robustness and scalability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through application to an ensemble of synthetic tests using high-dimensional, multimodal probability density functions. Here, the practical aspects of the approach are demonstrated with inversion problems in structural dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗