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At least 451 records · Page 25

Recent examples of mesoscale numerical forecasts of severe weather events along the east coast

Mesoscale numerical forecasts utilizing the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) are documented for two East Coast severe weather events. The two events are the thunderstorm and heavy snow bursts in the Washington, D.C. - Baltimore, MD region on 8 March 1984 and the devastating tornado outbreak across North and South Carolina on 28 March 1984. The forecasts are presented to demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate dynamical interactions and diabatic processes and to note some of the problems encountered when using mesoscale models for day-to-day forecasting.

Kocin, P. J.↗

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Manobianco, John T.↗

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

An Overview of the TROPICS NASA Earth Venture Mission

The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3) program. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones. TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 min for the baseline mission) which can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm life cycle. TROPICS comprises six Cube-Sats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high-performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz oxygen absorption line, water vapour profiles using three channels near the 183 GHz water vapour absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher-resolution water vapour channels), and a single channel near 205 GHz which is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for tropical cyclones on a nearly global scale and is a major leap forward in the temporal resolution of several key parameters needed for assimilation into advanced data assimilation systems capable of utilizing rapid-update radiance or retrieval data.Launch readiness is currently projected for late 2019.

TROPICS↗

Overview of the NASA TROPICS CubeSat Constellation Mission

Recent technology advances in miniature microwave radiometers that can be hosted on very small satellites has made possible a new class of affordable constellation missions that provide very high revisit rates of tropical cyclones and other severe weather. The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture–Instrument (EVI-3) program and is now in development with planned launch readiness in late 2019. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3-D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones (TCs). TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 minutes for the baseline mission) over the tropics that can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm lifecycle. TROPICS will comprise a constellation of at least six CubeSats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz oxygen absorption line, water vapor profiles using three channels near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher resolution water vapor channels), and a single channel at 205 GHz that is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles and low-level moisture. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution in the microwave spectrum to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for TCs on a nearly global scale and is a major leap forward in the temporal resolution of several key parameters needed for assimilation into advanced data assimilation systems capable of utilizing rapid-update radiance or retrieval data. Here, we provide an overview of the mission and an update on current status, with a focus on unique characteristics of the Cubesat system, recent performance simulations on a range of observables to be provided by the constellation, and a summary of science applications.

Blackwell, W. J.↗

Overview of the NASA TROPICS CubeSat Constellation Mission

Recent technology advances in miniature microwave radiometers that can be hosted on very small satellites has made possible a new class of affordable constellation missions that provide very high revisit rates of tropical cyclones and other severe weather. The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3)program and is now in development with planned launch readiness in late 2019. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3-D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones (TCs). TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 minutes for the baseline mission) over the tropics that can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm life cycle. TROPICS will comprise a constellation of at least six CubeSats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz (gigahertz) oxygen absorption line, water vapor profiles using three channels near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher resolution water vapor channels), and a single channel at 205 GHz that is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles and low-level moisture. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution in the microwave spectrum to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for TCs on a nearly global scale and is a major leap forward in the temporal resolution of several key parameters needed for assimilation into advanced data assimilation systems capable of utilizing rapid-update radiance or retrieval data. Here, we provide an overview of the mission and an update on current status,with a focus on unique characteristics of the Cubesat system, recent performance simulations on a range of observables to be provided by the constellation, and a summary of science applications.

Passive Microwave↗

Microbial Community Composition in Deep‐Subsurface Reservoir Fluids Reveals Natural Interwell Connectivity

Abstract The identification of natural fractures and the wells they connect is crucial for the development of geological reservoirs because it may have an important impact on reservoir model construction and hydraulic fracture propagation. In this study we investigated the use of a novel data source, the microbial community composition in the reservoir formation fluids, for identification of interwell connectivity caused by natural fractures. We verified this concept at a newly developed mesoscale enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field testbed located 4,850 ft (1,478 m) beneath ground surface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, SD. Fluids produced at or near the EGS testbed were sampled and subjected to high‐throughput 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to analyze the microbial community profile therein. Despite the typically substantial heterogeneity across the community profiles of samples spatially distributed (10 m to 1.9 km apart) throughout the site, samples from two wells at the EGS testbed showed highly similar microbial community composition, suggesting the two wells intersected the same natural fracture. This evidence of natural connectivity between the two wells at the EGS testbed was later corroborated by core log analysis and sewer camera surveys into the boreholes. Besides the field case described in this study, microbial community composition as a reservoir diagnostic tool would be applicable in a much broader context such as unconventional hydrocarbon exploitation, groundwater reservoir characterization, and environmental remediation, adding valuable “hard” data capable of pinpointing the origins of fluids unambiguously.

Zhang, Yuran↗

A nested-grid mesoscale numerical weather prediction model modified for Space Shuttle operational requirements

A nested-grid mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is tested over Florida for the case of intense seabreeze-induced convection. The goal of this modeling system is to provide real-time aviation weather support which is designed to fit local terminal operations such as those supporting NASA's STS. Results from a 58 km and a 14.5 km nested-grid simulation show that this version of the MASS is capable of simulating many of the basic characteristics of convective complexes during periods of relatively weak synoptic scale flow regimes. However, it is noted that extensive development work is required with nested-grid cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes before many of the meso-beta scale features such as thunderstorm downdraft-produced bubble high pressure centers can be accurately simulated. After these schemes are properly tuned, MASS can be utilized to initialize microscale modeling systems.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

Memory efficient solution of the primitive equations for numerical weather prediction on the CYBER 205

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), for both operational and research purposes, requires only fast computational speed but also large memory. A technique for solving the Primitive Equations for atmospheric motion on the CYBER 205, as implemented in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System, which is fully vectorized and requires substantially less memory than other techniques such as the Leapfrog or Adams-Bashforth Schemes is discussed. The technique presented uses the Euler-Backard time marching scheme. Also discussed are several techniques for reducing computational time of the model by replacing slow intrinsic routines by faster algorithms which use only hardware vector instructions.

Tuccillo, J. J.↗

Lightning Observations above and below clouds

The quantitative optical characteristics of cloud to ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning above clouds were studied. A data base of a number of pulse paramaters such as energy, rise times, pulse widths and pulse intervals was complied and categorized for first return strokes, subsequent strokes, the intracloud part of CG flashes and IC flashes. It is found that: (1) single stroke CG's are more readily distinguishable from IC flashes than multiple stroke CG's; (2) there is no significant difference between the energy of first and subsequent return stroke pulses; and (3) the pulse rise times and pulse widths are time broadened. Lightning activity in a mesoscale convective weather system (MCS) was examined. The CG flash rates average almost 50 per minute for 7 hours. It is shown that lightning above storms embedded within the MCS IC lightning activity can be much greater than CG activity at certain times in the MCS lifecycle.

Goodman, S. J.↗

A nested-grid limited-area model for short term weather forecasting

The present investigation is concerned with a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS), incorporating the sigma-coordinate primitive equations. The present version of this model (MASS 3.0) has 14 vertical layers, with the upper boundary at 100 mb. There are 128 x 96 grid points in each layer. The earlier version of this model (MASS 2.0) has been described by Kaplan et al. (1982). The current investigation provides a summary of major revisions to that version and a description of the parameterization schemes which are presently included in the model. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is considered, taking into account aspects of generalized similarity theory and free convection, the surface energy budget, the surface moisture budget, and prognostic equations for the depth h of the PBL. A cloud model is discussed, giving attention to stable precipitation, and cumulus convection.

Wong, V. C.↗

A survey of nested grid techniques and their potential for use within the MASS weather prediction model

A survey of various one- and two-way interactive nested grid techniques used in hydrostatic numerical weather prediction models is presented and the advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The techniques for specifying the lateral boundary conditions for each nested grid scheme are described in detail. Averaging and interpolation techniques used when applying the coarse mesh grid (CMG) and fine mesh grid (FMG) interface conditions during two-way nesting are discussed separately. The survey shows that errors are commonly generated at the boundary between the CMG and FMG due to boundary formulation or specification discrepancies. Methods used to control this noise include application of smoothers, enhanced diffusion, or damping-type time integration schemes to model variables. The results from this survey provide the information needed to decide which one-way and two-way nested grid schemes merit future testing with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model. An analytically specified baroclinic wave will be used to conduct systematic tests of the chosen schemes since this will allow for objective determination of the interfacial noise in the kind of meteorological setting for which MASS is designed. Sample diagnostic plots from initial tests using the analytic wave are presented to illustrate how the model-generated noise is ascertained. These plots will be used to compare the accuracy of the various nesting schemes when incorporated into the MASS model.

Koch, Steven E.↗

A VAS-numerical model impact study using the Gal-Chen variational approach

Numerical experiments to assess the impact of incorporating temperature data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) using the assimilation technique developed by Gal-Chen (1986) modified for use in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model were conducted. The scheme is designed to utilize the high temporal and horizontal resolution of satellite retrievals while maintaining the fine vertical structure generated by the model. This is accomplished by adjusting the model lapse rates to reflect thicknesses retrieved from VAS and applying a three-dimensional variational that preserves the distribution of the geopotential fields in the model. A nudging technique whereby the model temperature fields are gradually adjusted toward the updated temperature fields during model integration is also tested. An adiabatic version of MASS is used in all experiments to better isolate mass-momentum imbalances. The method has a sustained impact over an 18 hr model simulation.

Aune, Robert M.↗

Numerical simulations of the subsynoptic features associated with the AVE-SESAME I case. I - The preconvective environment

The extensive diagnostic calculations made possible by the AVE-SESAME I database are used in combination with numerical simulations from the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model to examine the dynamics of the meso-alpha-scale features during the preconvective period from 1130 to 2030 UTC on April 10, 1979. The version of the MASS model used in this investigation is presented, and an overview of the general synoptic conditions present at the time of model initialization is presented along with the data used to initialize the model. The dynamical processes present in the numerical simulations are presented and compared with analyses of the observational data from this and other investigations of this case. The relative importance of the adiabatic and diabatic processes in creating and then initiating the release of the convective instability is discussed.

Zack, John W.↗

Frontogenesis over a mountain ridge

The interaction of developing two-dimensional cold and warm frontal systems with a mesoscale mountain ridge is examined. The basic equations and a scale analysis which isolates the parameters that describe the flow are discussed, and the governing equations and techniques used to solve the problem are presented. Frontal development in the absence of topography and features of the steady mountain flow field are considered. Model results are presented on the interaction of cold and warm fronts with topography.

Zehnder, Joseph A.↗

Effects of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation on the initiation of a local severe storm

The role of evapotranspiration in a prestorm environment and the way in which a local severe storm initiates under the influence of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation coverage are examined. The Goddard Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (Kaplan et al., 1982) is used to study the case of an isolated but intense convective storm associated with the Grand Island, Nebraska, tornado on June 3-4, 1980. It is found that spatial variations of vegetation and soil moisture increase the surface temperature gradient, enhance the thermally direct ageostrophic circulation, intensify the surface pressure gradient, and enhance the geostrophic low-level southerly flow.

Chang, Jy-Tai↗

A mesoscale numerical simulation of an index for use in the forecasting of the potential severity of wet microbursts

This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using the wet microburst potential intensity index developed by Proctor (1989) for predicting the onset of a wet microburst. After describing the index and the principles involved in its derivation, the version 4.0 of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model described by Karyampudi et al. (1988) was used to illustrate how the index would perform as a forecast product. An analysis is presented of the use of the microburst potential intensity index in the numerical simulation of the DFR aircraft accident on August 2, 1985 in a downburst environment.

Zack, John W.↗

The development of an advanced microwave precipitation radiometer for future airborne measurements

An account is given of the development and preliminary testing of the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) for 10-85 GHz range precipitation retrieval and mesoscale storm-system studies conducted by ER-2 aircraft. AMPR exploits precipitation scattering signals to unambiguously retrieve precipitation and storm-structure intensity data. Attention is given to the AMPR's multifrequency feedhorn, which furnishes dual-polarization ports at 19.35, 37.0, and 85.5 GHz; the 10.7 GHz channel uses a separate horn/lens antenna with single polarization. The AMPR-equipped ER-2 will underfly the SSM/I space instrument to allow data comparisons of comparable spatial coverage.

Galliano, J. A.↗