Using machine learning to model and predict water clarity in the Great Lakes
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Cameron C. Lee↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Machine learning prediction”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Unified Domain Knowledge Informed Machine Learning Model for CHF Prediction
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Jin, Yue↗
Estimating Predictive Uncertainty in Scientific Machine Learning: A Library of Methods and Test Problems.
Abstract not provided.
Rushdi, Ahmad↗
Active Causal Machine Learning for Molecular Property Prediction
Predicting properties from molecular structures is paramount to design tasks in medicine, materials science, and environmental management. However, design rules derived from the structure-property relationships using correlative data-driven methods fail to elucidate underlying causal mechanisms controlling chemical phenomena. This preliminary work proposes a workflow to actively learn robust cause-effect relations between structural features and molecular property for a broad chemical space utilizing smaller subsets, entailing partial information.
Fox, Zach↗
Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Void Fraction Prediction in Upward and Downward Two-Phase Flows
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Rotilio, Davide [University of Tennessee, Knoxvill↗
A Machine Learning Approach to Accelerated Prediction of Statistics of Microstructures Produced by the Laser Powder Bed Fusion Process
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Jones, Mason Avery [University of California Davis↗
Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion
Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.
Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗
Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet
Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.
Data assimilation↗
Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification
Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Battery Charge Curve Prediction via Feature Extraction and Supervised Machine Learning
Real-time onboard state monitoring and estimation of a battery over its lifetime is indispensable for the safe and durable operation of battery-powered devices. In this study, a methodology to predict the entire constant-current cycling curve with limited input information that can be collected in a short period of time is developed. A total of 10 066 charge curves of LiNiO 2 -based batteries at a constant C-rate are collected. With the combination of a feature extraction step and a multiple linear regression step, the method can accurately predict an entire battery charge curve with an error of < 2% using only 10% of the charge curve as the input information. The method is further validated across other battery chemistries (LiCoO 2 -based) using open-access datasets. The prediction error of the charge curves for the LiCoO 2 -based battery is around 2% with only 5% of the charge curve as the input information, indicating the generalization of the developed methodology for predicting battery cycling curves. The developed method paves the way for fast onboard health status monitoring and estimation for batteries during practical applications.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Machine learning using host/guest energy histograms to predict adsorption in metal–organic frameworks: Application to short alkanes and Xe/Kr mixtures
A machine learning (ML) methodology that uses a histogram of interaction energies has been applied to predict gas adsorption in metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) using results from atomistic grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulations as training and test data. In this work, the method is first extended to binary mixtures of spherical species, in particular, Xe and Kr. In addition, it is shown that single-component adsorption of ethane and propane can be predicted in good agreement with GCMC simulation using a histogram of the adsorption energies felt by a methyl probe in conjunction with the random forest ML method. Here, the results for propane can be improved by including a small number of MOF textural properties as descriptors. We also discuss the most significant features, which provides physical insight into the most beneficial adsorption energy sites for a given application.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Predicting homopolymer and copolymer solubility through machine learning
In this work, we report the development of multiple new machine learning (ML) models to accurately predict homopolymer/copolymer solubility over a diverse set of polymers & solvents, using explainable AI to provide polymer design recommendations.
Stubbs, Christopher D. [Department of Chemistry, C↗
High-Throughput Screening and Accurate Prediction of Ionic Liquid Viscosities Using Interpretable Machine Learning
Ionic liquids (ILs) are a novel group of green solvents with great promise for various industrial applications, including carbon capture and lignocellulosic biomass deconstruction. However, the use of ILs at the industrial scale remains challenging due to their high viscosities at ambient temperatures. To develop ILs with lower viscosities, a systematic study of their quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) is desirable. Here, we developed four machine learning (ML) models to predict viscosity at various temperature and pressure ranges, trained over a wide range of ILs consisting of various cationic and anionic families. ML methods including two-factor polynomial regression (two-factor PR), support vector regression (SVR), feed-forward neural networks (FFNN), and categorical boosting (CATBoost) were developed based on features that have proven useful in previous ML studies: COSMO-RS (conductor-like screening model for real solvents)-derived surface screening charge densities (sigma profiles). FFNN and CATBoost were the most accurate in predicting IL viscosities with lower average absolute relative deviation and higher R2 values on the test set. Tanimoto similarity scores were calculated to characterize the chemical space and structural similarity of the investigated ions. Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the ML results. Temperature, the polar area of ILs, and the nonpolar regions of ions are key features that influence the viscosity predictions. Importantly, the IL viscosity prediction here is the most accurate reported to date.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Phase Selection Rules of Multi‐Principal Element Alloys
Abstract Computational prediction of phase stability of multi‐principal element alloys (MPEAs) holds a lot of promise for rapid exploration of the enormous design space and autonomous discovery of superior structural and functional properties. Regardless of many plausible works that rely on phenomenological theory and machine learning, precise prediction is still limited by insufficient data and the lack of interpretability of some machine learning algorithms, e.g., convolutional neural network. In this work, a comprehensive approach is presented, encompassing the development of a complete dataset that contains 72 387 density functional theory calculations, as well as a predictive global phenomenological descriptor. The phase selection descriptor, based on atomic electronegativity and valence electron concentration, significantly outperforms the widely used valence electron concentration, excelling in both accuracy (with an f1 score of 63% compared to 47%) and its ability to predict the HCP phase (0.48 recall compared to 0). The comprehensive data mining on the global design space of 61 425 quaternary MPEAs made from 28 possible metals, together with the phenomenological theory and physical interpretation, will set up a solid computational science foundation for data‐driven exploration of MPEAs.
Chemistry↗
Constructing A New CHF Look-Up Table Based on the Domain Knowledge Informed Machine Learning Methodology
Accurate prediction of CHF under various fluid flow conditions continues to be required for design, operation and safety analysis of light water reactor rod bundles. Due to the lack of in-depth physical understanding as well as limited high-resolution data in the micro-scale flow and heat transfer, the existing models feature a sub-optimal uncertainty band. In this study, driven by the prior domain knowledge information obtained, an improved CHF look-up table is developed through unified machine learning algorithms for the vertical flow conditions within tube and annulus geometry. The Groeneveld 2006 look-up table is used as the domain knowledge to train machine learning process against tube and annulus CHF data for both DNB and DO type. The new look-up table shows improved accuracy for conditions relevant to PWRs and BWRs. In addition, its domain knowledge informed nature ensures that a rationale prediction can be made, thus accounting for previous valuable information in the machine learning model training process.
Jin, Yue↗
Prediction of condition-specific regulatory genes using machine learning
Recent advances in genomic technologies have generated data on large-scale protein–DNA interactions and open chromatin regions for many eukaryotic species. How to identify condition-specific functions of transcription factors using these data has become a major challenge in genomic research. To solve this problem, we have developed a method called ConSReg, which provides a novel approach to integrate regulatory genomic data into predictive machine learning models of key regulatory genes. Using Arabidopsis as a model system, we tested our approach to identify regulatory genes in data sets from single cell gene expression and from abiotic stress treatments. Our results showed that ConSReg accurately predicted transcription factors that regulate differentially expressed genes with an average auROC of 0.84, which is 23.5–25% better than enrichment-based approaches. To further validate the performance of ConSReg, we analyzed an independent data set related to plant nitrogen responses. ConSReg provided better rankings of the correct transcription factors in 61.7% of cases, which is three times better than other plant tools. We applied ConSReg to Arabidopsis single cell RNA-seq data, successfully identifying candidate regulatory genes that control cell wall formation. Our methods provide a new approach to define candidate regulatory genes using integrated genomic data in plants.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet
Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.
Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗
GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources
Geothermal exploration and production are challenging, expensive and risky. The GeoThermalCloud uses Machine Learning to predict the location of hidden geothermal resources. This submission includes a training dataset for the GeoThermalCloud neural network. Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗