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At least 451 records · Page 25

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Inversion methods for satellite studies of the Earth Radiation Budget - Development of algorithms for the ERBE mission

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment carries a three-channel scanning radiometer and a set of nadir-looking wide and medium field-of-view instruments for measuring the radiation emitted from earth and the solar radiation reflected from earth. This paper describes the algorithms which are used to compute the radiant exitances at a reference level ('top of the atmosphere') from these measurements. Methods used to analyze data from previous radiation budget experiments are reviewed, and the rationale for the present algorithms is developed. The scanner data are converted to radiances by use of spectral factors, which account for imperfect spectral response of the optics. These radiances are converted to radiant exitances at the reference level by use of directional models, which account for anisotropy of the radiation as it leaves the earth. The spectral factors and directional models are selected on the basis of the scene, which is identified on the basis of the location and the long-wave and shortwave radiances. These individual results are averaged over 2.5 x 2.5 deg regions. Data from the wide and medium field-of-view instruments are analyzed by use of the traditional shape factor method and also by use of a numerical filter, which permits resolution enhancement along the orbit track.

Smith, G. L.↗

Universal single level implicit algorithm for gasdynamics

A single level effectively explicit implicit algorithm for gasdynamics is presented. The method meets all the requirements for unconditionally stable global iteration over flows with mixed supersonic and supersonic zones including blunt body flow and boundary layer flows with strong interaction and streamwise separation. For hyperbolic (supersonic flow) regions the method is automatically equivalent to contemporary space marching methods. For elliptic (subsonic flow) regions, rapid convergence is facilitated by alternating direction solution sweeps which bring both sets of eigenvectors and the influence of both boundaries of a coordinate line equally into play. Point by point updating of the data with local iteration on the solution procedure at each spatial step as the sweeps progress not only renders the method single level in storage but, also, improves nonlinear accuracy to accelerate convergence by an order of magnitude over related two level linearized implicit methods. The method derives robust stability from the combination of an eigenvector split upwind difference method (CSCM) with diagonally dominant ADI(DDADI) approximate factorization and computed characteristic boundary approximations.

Lombard, C. K.↗

A high-order Shifted Interface Method for Lagrangian shock hydrodynamics

Here, we present a new method for two-material Lagrangian hydrodynamics, which combines the Shifted Interface Method (SIM) with a high-order Finite Element Method. Our approach relies on an exact (or sharp) material interface representation, that is, it uses the precise location of the material interface. The interface is represented by the zero level-set of a continuous high-order finite element function that moves with the material velocity. This strategy allows to evolve curved material interfaces inside curved elements. By reformulating the original interface problem over a surrogate (approximate) interface, located in proximity of the true interface, the SIM avoids cut cells and the associated problematic issues regarding implementation, numerical stability, and matrix conditioning. Accuracy is maintained by modifying the original interface conditions using Taylor expansions. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms on established numerical benchmarks in one, two and three dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Opinion: Lighting Research During and After the Pandemic

For many lighting researchers, the recent restrictions related to COVID-19 have paused most in-person laboratory or field experiments. In certain countries, regulatory institutions have allowed such experiments to resume but issued safety recommendations like pre-checking participants for disease symptoms and excluding those that are especially vulnerable. To avoid potential complications and delays, researchers are likely to resort to other research designs that enable remote research — eliminating the need for the experimenter and subjects to be in the same room. While unanticipated, this shift to remote research methods is an opportunity to revisit and further develop remote experimental techniques, which can have beneficial long-lasting implications on lighting research during and after the pandemic. Perhaps the most common type of remote research is online experiments; which can greatly benefit from improved techniques to allow for greater control or characterization of experimental conditions, like those proposed by Villa and Labayrade . These techniques require validation specific to the type of response collected and context, e.g. space type and attributes. New research techniques continue to emerge and will enable remote collection of objective measures such as gaze direction and high dynamic range images (HDRIs) without specialized equipment. In fact, many of these methods and techniques are commonly used in other disciplines, like vision science and psychology, and can be adapted for lighting research. Not all lighting studies can be conducted online, but in the age of ubiquitous and connected technologies, there is a largely missed opportunity to utilize crowdsourced responses to lighting conditions in real environments where people live and go about their daily lives without the research being limited to a certain time and laboratory locations. For instance, outdoor street luminaires can be rated by passersby using ecological momentary assessments on mobile phones. While this approach does not provide laboratory-level control over experimental conditions, it can provide more contextual responses resulting from ‘normal’ dynamic gaze, behavior, and interactions. Further, it can also reduce bias related to the experimental setting. Further development of remote research methods and their use in lighting research can improve the quality of lighting research. Given that sample sizes in most lighting research are relatively small, remote research can substantially increase sample sizes, reduce research costs, and shorten study duration, all while reducing interaction between experimenter and subjects. Another benefit is reaching a wider audience and including under-represented individuals who typically are not reachable using common recruitment methods. The pandemic has set back our plans for in-lab experiments, but can it inspire us to think of new and creative ways to expand lighting research?

Abboushi, Belal K.↗

MO-G-201-01: A Multi-Institutional Study Investigating the Performance of a Knowledge-Based Planning System Against Pinnacle Auto-Planning Engine in SIB-IMRT for the Head-And-Neck Cancer

Purpose: Knowledge-based Planning (KBP) founded on prior planning experience and Auto-Planning Engine (APE; commercialized in Pinnacle v9.10 TPS) based on progressive optimization algorithm both aim to eliminate the trial-and-error process in radiotherapy inverse planning. This study investigates the performance of the approaches in a multi-institutional setting to evaluate their functionalities in oropharyngeal cancer and offers suggestions how they can be implemented in the clinic. Methods: Radboud University Medical Center (RUMC) provided 35 oropharyngeal cancer patients (SIB-IMRT with two-dose-level prescription: 68 Gy to PTV68 and 50.3 Gy to PTV50.3) with corresponding comparative APE plans. Johns Hopkins University (JHU) contributed to a three-dose-level (70 Gy 63 Gy and 58.1 Gy) plan library for RUMC’s patient KBP generation. MedStar Georgetown University Hospital (MGUH) contributed to a KBP approach employing overlap-volume histogram (OVH-KBP) for generating RUMC’s patient KBP plans using JHU’s plan library. Since both approaches need their own user-defined parameters as initial inputs the first 10 patients were set aside as training set to finalize them. Meanwhile cross-institutional comparisons and adjustments were implemented for investigating institutions’ protocol discrepancies and the approaches’ user-defined parameters were updated accordingly. The finalized parameters were then applied to the remaining 25 patients for OVH-KBP and APE generation. A Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used for statistical comparison with significance level of p<0.05. Results: On average PTV68’s V95 was 96.5% in APE plans vs. 97% in OVH-KBP plans (p=0.36); PTV50.3’s V95 in APE plans was 97.8% vs.97.6% in OVH-KBP plans (p=0.6); cord’s D0.1 cc was 38.6 Gy in OVH-KBP plans vs. 43.7 Gy in APE plans (p=0.0001); mean doses to larynxes oral cavities parotids and submandibular glands were similar with p>0.2. Conclusions: The study demonstrates that KBP and APE can generate plans of comparable quality in a multi-institutional setting. Variations in clinical protocols can be effectively addressed for cross-institutional adaptations. Binbin Wu and Todd McNutt are the co-inventors of a patent associated with the proposed knowledge-based planning system which was licensed to Varian Medical Systems in 2015; This research was in part supported by Philips Radiation Oncology Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Coupled cluster spectroscopic properties of the coinage metal nitrosyls, M–NO (M = Cu, Ag, Au)

Ab initio near-equilibrium potential energy and dipole moment surfaces for the bent CuNO, AgNO, and AuNO molecules have been calculated under the Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) composite framework at the coupled cluster level of theory including complete basis set extrapolation, outer-core correlation, scalar relativistic effects, and spin-orbit coupling. The Brueckner coupled cluster doubles with perturbative triples method, BCCD(T), was used to greatly improve upon CCSD(T), which was particularly problematic for CuNO. In the latter case the BCCD(T) vibrational frequencies showed significant differences compared to CCSD(T), e.g., nearly 65 cm -1 for the NO stretching frequency, and BCCD(T) also resulted in much better agreement with the available experimental frequencies. A full range of ro-vibrational spectroscopic constants are given for all three molecules of this study using the accurate composite potential energy functions and employing 2nd-order vibrational perturbation theory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multi-Factor-Coupled, Ahead-of-Time Aggregation of Power Flexibility Under Forecast Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is significantly reshaping the role of distribution systems under active energy management. To aggregate the active-reactive power flexibility of DERs dispersed at the feeder and provide capacity support to the transmission system, it is essential to efficiently identify feasible substation power injection trajectories. This paper introduces a novel ahead-of-time flexibility characterization method to address it. First, a polyhedral non-feeder-level power flexibility region (PFR) is constructed, accounting for various time-dependent, power-coupled, and forecast error uncertainties. Then, a polyhedral feeder-level PFR is analytically derived through a coordinate transformation, which can reveal the uncertainty propagation path, i.e., how uncertainty applies to the feeder-level PFR. To facilitate the high-level application, a tractable chance-constrained Chebyshev centering optimization model is further developed to find a ball-shaped inner approximation of the feeder-level PFR. Finally, the proposed method is validated on a modified IEEE 123-bus test system. Here, both theoretical and experimental results show that, with appropriate robustness parameter settings, the proposed method can make the approximated PFR less conservative with abundant robustness against forecast error uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CdSe/ZnS Fluorescent Nanoparticles as Nanoprobes of Local pH in Diagnostics of Oncology

We discuss the fluorescence spectra from a set of points in histological sections of colon tissue with different levels of pathology that were stained with hydrophilic semiconductor CdSe/ZnS nanoparticles that were modified by a unique method at the phase interface. The shifts in the fluorescence spectra that were recorded for stained cells at different pathologies are described using the electrochromism of the nanoparticles. Aqueous solutions of the CdSe/ZnS nanoparticles with different pH values are used as systems that model the acidity of a biological medium. It has been shown that the shifts of the fluorescence bands of the CdSe/ZnS nanoparticles are caused by a change in the local electrical field that is induced by solvated ions near their surface at different pH values of the solutions. The application of the CdSe/ZnS nanoparticles as nanoprobes for the local pH in biological tissue is discussed in the context of this model.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Application of Quantum Computing to Biochemical Systems: A Look to the Future

Chemistry is considered as one of the more promising applications to science of near-term quantum computing. Recent work in transitioning classical algorithms to a quantum computer has led to great strides in improving quantum algorithms and illustrating their quantum advantage. Because of the limitations of near-term quantum computers, the most effective strategies split the work over classical and quantum computers. There is a proven set of methods in computational chemistry and materials physics that has used this same idea of splitting a complex physical system into parts that are treated at different levels of theory to obtain solutions for the complete physical system for which a brute force solution with a single method is not feasible. These methods are variously known as embedding, multi-scale, and fragment techniques and methods. We review these methods and then propose the embedding approach as a method for describing complex biochemical systems, with the parts not only treated with different levels of theory, but computed with hybrid classical and quantum algorithms. Such strategies are critical if one wants to expand the focus to biochemical molecules that contain active regions that cannot be properly explained with traditional algorithms on classical computers. While we do not solve this problem here, we provide an overview of where the field is going to enable such problems to be tackled in the future.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exploratory study on performance measures as indicators of IS effectiveness

The Information Systems Directorate at JSC/NASA has undertaken the reevaluation of its performance measures process and measures. Under the direction of a quality approach it is essential to identify an external perspective of how well an organization is performing. This study was conducted with two major objectives: (1) survey and summarize the academic literature on performance measures as indicators of information systems (IS) effectiveness; and (2) survey organizations for their experience in measuring for IS effectiveness. Four approaches to measuring the effectiveness of IS performance were identified: (1) listen to the customer for the things they need; (2) align with corporate goals; (3) benchmark against well-respected organizations; and (4) ask yourself what critical factors lead to success. The list of known methods for soliciting customer feedback are as follows: (1) executive visit; (2) survey, interview, and focus group; (3) complaints and compliments; and (4) service level agreements. A common set of characteristics that satisfy customers was identified from the literature. The list includes elements such as the following: accuracy, timeliness, relevance, understandability, reliability, and completeness. Future research in this topic area should prove beneficial to determine the metrics for external validity.

Bishop, Peter C.↗

Treatment of Nonuniform Temperature Distribution by Subgroup Method

The subgroup method divides an energy group into several subgroups according to the magnitude of the cross section. The subgroup fixed source equation is formulated on the energy range of a subgroup, the ratio of which to the energy range of an energy group is defined as subgroup probability. Typically the physical probability table or the mathematical probability table is applied. However, both of the tables are not guaranteed to share the same set of subgroup probabilities for a resonant nuclide at different temperatures. This means that the subgroup fixed source equation cannot be formulated and the subgroup method will not work when the temperature distribution is nonuniform. To overcome this defect, the subgroup method based on partial cross section fit scheme (PXSFS) and the simplified partial cross section fit scheme (SPXSFS) are proposed. These methods fit the cross sections at different temperatures as partial cross sections to share a same set of subgroup probabilities. The new methods is compared to the conventional subgroup method (CSM) based on physical probability table and the preexisting methods: the correlation model (CM), the subgroup level adjustment scheme (SLAS) and the number density adjustment scheme (NDAS). The numerical results show that the new methods can better predict the spatial dependent reaction rate than preexisting methods. Within these two methods, the simplified scheme consumes less time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Estimating the Timing of Early Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections: a Comparison between Poisson Fitter and BEAST

Many HIV prevention strategies are currently under consideration where it is highly informative to know the study participants’ times of infection. These can be estimated using viral sequence data sampled early in infection. However, there are several scenarios that, if not addressed, can skew timing estimates. These include multiple transmitted/founder (TF) viruses, APOBEC (apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like)-mediated mutational enrichment, and recombination. Here, we suggest a pipeline to identify these problems and resolve the biases that they introduce. We then compare two modeling strategies to obtain timing estimates from sequence data. The first, Poisson Fitter (PF), is based on a Poisson model of random accumulation of mutations relative to the TF virus (or viruses) that established the infection. The second uses a coalescence-based phylogenetic strategy as implemented in BEAST. The comparison is based on timing predictions using plasma viral RNA (cDNA) sequence data from 28 simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV)-infected animals for which the exact day of infection is known. In this particular setting, based on nucleotide sequences from samples obtained in early infection, the Poisson method yielded more accurate, more precise, and unbiased estimates for the time of infection than did the explored implementations of BEAST. The inference of the time of infection is a critical parameter in testing the efficacy of clinical interventions in protecting against HIV-1 infection. For example, in clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of passively delivered antibodies (Abs) for preventing infections, accurate time of infection data are essential for discerning levels of the Abs required to confer protection, given the natural Ab decay rate in the human body. In such trials, genetic sequences from early in the infection are regularly sampled from study participants, generally prior to immune selection, when the viral population is still expanding and genetic diversity is low. In this particular setting of early viral growth, the Poisson method is superior to the alternative approach based on coalescent methods. This approach can also be applied in human vaccine trials, where accurate estimates of infection times help ascertain if vaccine-elicited immune protection wanes over time.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An enhanced projection and assembly model reduction methodology

An enhanced projection and assembly (P and A) method employing static correction modes to either the retained mode set of the system or the projected mode sets of the components is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed technique was successfully demonstrated on a 13-DOF mass-spring model and a high-order finite element model of the Galileo spacecraft. When applied to the Galileo cruise model, the system-level augmented P and A method significantly alleviates the zero-mismatch problem found in previous studies.

Lee, Allan Y.↗

A global ab initio potential for HCN/HNC, exact vibrational energies, and comparison to experiment

An ab initio (i.e., from first principles) calculation of vibrational energies of HCN and HNC is reported. The vibrational calculations were done with a new potential derived from a fit to 1124 ab initio electronic energies which were calculated using the highly accurate CCSD(T) coupled-cluster method in conjunction with a large atomic natural orbital basis set. The properties of this potential are presented, and the vibrational calculations are compared to experiment for 54 vibrational transitions, 39 of which are for zero total angular momentum, J = 0, and 15 of which are for J = 1. The level of agreement with experiment is unprecedented for a triatomic with two nonhydrogen atoms, and demonstrates the capability of the latest computational methods to give reliable predictions on a strongly bound triatomic molecule at very high levels of vibrational excitation.

Bentley, Joseph A.↗

Transition probability of the Si III 189.2-nm intersystem line

Measurement of the lifetime of the metastable 3s3p(3)P(0)1 level of Si(2+) (Si III), which decays by photon emission at 189.2 nm to the 3s2(1)S0 state, is reported. The data were taken from spontaneous emission from metastable Si III stored in an RF ion trap. The Si III ions were produced through electron bombardment of SiH4 and SiF4 at pressures of 1/100,000,000-1/10,000,000 Torr. A photomultiplier was employed to count the photon emissions from the transitions. A total of 11 decay curves were generated for analysis, with Poisson statistics used to set the uncertainties at within 8 pct. Significant systematic effects were controlled, and the lifetime was found to be within 3.6 microsec of 59.9 microsec. The method used is concluded valid for determining the lifetimes of metastable levels of low-Z ions with low charge, and thereby the transition probabilities.

Kwong, H. S.↗

EUI Benchmarks for Net-Zero Energy Buildings in India

In our study we present EUI benchmarks for NZEBs for six building types across residential and non-residential typologies and for India's five climate zones. This approach is similar to the simulation-based benchmarks used by the B3 program in Minnesota, the Cal-Arch methodology in California, and the US Solar Decathlon approach, which combine simulations with actual building data. Of the six building types we explore one in detail with a range of operation scenarios, specifically narrowing down the EUI benchmarks for mixed-mode building operation and for variable temperature set-points as prescribed in the National Building Code of India.The contribution of this work is to provide rigorous end-use level EUI benchmarks for six building types, and to describe a method for simulation-based EUI benchmarks for mixed-mode operation with variable setpoints to highlight the difference between the standard approach used for the five building types and the On-Site Construction Worker Housing which additionally has the mixed-mode variable setpoint approach.On-Site Construction Worker Housings are typically poorly constructed temporary structures, without adequate thermal comfort, It is critical to provide adequate thermal comfort to protect people from the warming effects of climate change, and to discover super efficient and cost-effective ways to do so.The methodology used for the On-Site Construction Worker Housing (CWH) results in an 80% acceptability according to the India Model for Adaptive Comfort in the National Building Code of India. EUIs of all six buildings are 60% lower than the minimum compliance with India's Energy Conservation Building Codes, providing benchmarks for efficiency levels. The end-use level EUI benchmarks are now provided to over 1800 Solar Decathlon India participants so that they can compare the performance of their NZEB designs.In particular, the CWH results provide an insight into the importance of the mixed-mode operation with variable temperature set-points. The results from the simulation study show that for an NZEB target, the EUI with standard thermal comfort model and without mixed operation is 58.26 kWh/m2*year, while that with the variable set-points of the adaptive model with mixed mode operation is 24.23 kWh/m2*year. This is a 58% reduction in EUI. Given that many building types including residential, and non-residential operate in mixed mode, it is important to take this work further to develop mixed-mode operation NZEB benchmarks so that the carbon intensity of these buildings could be lower than the standard thermal comfort model approach.

benchmarking↗