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At least 451 records · Page 25

Shear-wave anisotropy reveals pore fluid pressure–induced seismicity in the U.S. midcontinent

Seismicity in the U.S. midcontinent has increased by orders of magnitude over the past decade. Spatiotemporal correlations of seismicity to wastewater injection operations have suggested that injection-related pore fluid pressure increases are inducing the earthquakes. We present direct evidence linking earthquake occurrence to pore pressure increase in the U.S. midcontinent through time-lapse shear-wave (S-wave) anisotropy analysis. Since the onset of the observation period in 2010, the orientation of the fast S-wave polarization has flipped from inline with the maximum horizontal stress to inline with the minimum horizontal stress, a change known to be associated with critical pore pressure buildup. The time delay between fast and slow S-wave arrivals exhibits increased variance through time, which is common in critical pore fluid settings. Near-basement borehole fluid pressure measurements indicate pore pressure increase in the region over the earthquake monitoring period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanical morphotype switching as an adaptive response in mycobacteria

Invading microbes face a myriad of cidal mechanisms of phagocytes that inflict physical damage to microbial structures. How intracellular bacterial pathogens adapt to these stresses is not fully understood. Here, we report the discovery of a virulence mechanism by which changes to the mechanical stiffness of the mycobacterial cell surface confer refraction to killing during infection. Long-term time-lapse atomic force microscopy was used to reveal a process of “mechanical morphotype switching” in mycobacteria exposed to host intracellular stress. A “soft” mechanical morphotype switch enhances tolerance to intracellular macrophage stress, including cathelicidin. Both pharmacologic treatment, with bedaquiline, and a genetic mutant lacking uvrA modified the basal mechanical state of mycobacteria into a soft mechanical morphotype, enhancing survival in macrophages. Our study proposes microbial cell mechanical adaptation as a critical axis for surviving host-mediated stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial and temporal control of lysis by the lambda holin

The infection cycle of phage λ terminates in lysis mediated by three types of lysis proteins, each disrupting a layer in the bacterial envelope: the S105 holin, the R endolysin, and the Rz/Rz1 spanin complex targeting the inner membrane, cell wall or peptidoglycan, and the outer membrane, respectively. Video microscopy has shown that in most infections, lysis occurs as a sudden, explosive event at a cell pole, such that the initial product is a less refractile ghost that retains rod-shaped morphology. Here, we investigate the molecular basis of polar lysis using time-lapse fluorescence microscopy. The results indicate that the holin determines the morphology of lysis by suddenly forming two-dimensional rafts at the poles about 100 s prior to lysis. Given the physiological and biochemical similarities between the lambda holin and other class I holins, dynamic redistribution and sudden concentration may be common features of holins, probably reflecting the fitness advantage of all-or-nothing lysis regulation

Microbiology↗

Parallel Infrastructure Modeling and Inversion Module for E4D

Electrical resistivity tomography ERT is a method of imaging the electrical conductivity of the subsurface. Electrical conductivity is a useful metric for understanding the subsurface because it is governed by geomechanical and geochemical properties that drive subsurface systems. ERT works by injecting current into the subsurface across a pair of electrodes, and measuring the corresponding electrical potential response across another pair of electrodes. Many such measurements are strategically taken across an array of electrodes to produce an ERT data set. These data are then processed through a computationally demanding process known as inversion to produce an image of the subsurface conductivity structure that gave rise to the measurements. Data can be inverted to provide 2D images, 3D images, or in the case of time-lapse 3D imaging, 4D images. ERT is generally not well suited for environments with buried electrically conductive infrastructure such as pipes, tanks, or well casings, because these features tend to dominate and degrade ERT images. This reduces or eliminates the utility of ERT imaging where it would otherwise be highly useful for, for example, imaging fluid migration from leaking pipes, imaging soil contamination beneath leaking subsurface tanks, and monitoring contaminant migration in locations with dense network of metal cased monitoring wells. The location and dimension of buried metallic infrastructure is often known. If so, then the effects of the infrastructure can be explicitly modeled within the ERT imaging algorithm, and thereby removed from the corresponding ERT image. However, there are a number of obstacles limiting this application. 1) Metallic infrastructure cannot be accurately modeled with standard codes because of the large contrast in conductivity between the metal and host material. 2) Modeling infrastructure in true dimension requires the computational mesh to be highly refined near the metal inclusions, which increases computational demands. 3) The ERT imaging algorithm requires specialized modifications to accommodate high conductivity inclusions within the computational mesh. The solution to each of these challenges was implemented within E4D (formerly FERM3D), which is a parallel ERT imaging code developed at PNNL (IPID #30249). The infrastructure modeling module implement in E4D uses a method of decoupling the model at the metallic interface(s) boundaries, into several well posed sub-problems (one for each distinct metallic inclusion) that are subsequently solved and recombined to form the global solution. The approach is based on the immersed interface method, with has been applied for similar problems in other fields (e.g. semiconductor industry). Comparisons to analytic solutions have shown the results to be very accurate, addressing item 1 above. The solution is implemented about an unstructured mesh, which enables arbitrary shapes to be efficiently modelled, thereby addressing item 2 above. In addition, the algorithm is written in parallel and shows excellent scalability, which also addresses equation 2 above. Finally, because only the boundaries of metallic inclusions are modeled, there are no high conductivity cells within the modeling mesh, and the problem described by item 3 above is no longer applicable.

Johnson, TimC.↗

Comparing Growth Rates of Simulated Moist and Dry Convective Thermals

The spreading rates of convective thermals are linked to their net entrainment, and previous literature has suggested differences in spreading rates between moist and dry thermals. Here, growth rates of idealized numerically simulated axisymmetric dry and moist convective thermals are directly compared. In an environment with dry-neutral stratification, the increase of thermal radius with height dR / dz is a larger by a factor of 1.7 for dry thermals relative to moist thermals. The fractional change in thermal volume ε is also greater for dry thermals within a distance of ~4 radii from the initial thermal height. Values of dR / dz are nearly constant with height for both moist and dry thermals consistent with classical theory based on dimensional analysis. The simulations are also consistent with theory relating impulse, circulation, and spreading rate for dry thermals proposed in previous papers and extended here to moist thermals, predicting they will spread less than dry thermals. Tests adding heating to dry thermals, either spread uniformly across the thermal volume or concentrated in the inner core, indicate that dR / dz and ε are smaller for moist thermals because latent heating is confined mostly to their cores. Additional axisymmetric moist simulations using modified lapse rates and large-eddy simulations support this analysis. Overall, these results indicate that slow spreading rates are a fundamental feature of moist thermals caused by latent heating that alters the spatial distribution of buoyancy within them relative to dry thermals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influences of Environmental Relative Humidity and Horizontal Scale of Subcloud Ascent on Deep Convective Initiation

This study examines two factors impacting initiation of moist deep convection: free-tropospheric environmental relative humidity (φ E ) and horizontal scale of subcloud ascent (R sub ), the latter exerting a dominant control on cumulus cloud width. A simple theoretical model is used to formulate a “scale selection” hypothesis: that a minimum R sub is required for moist convection to go deep, and that this minimum scale decreases with increasing φ E . Specifically, the ratio of R 2 sub to saturation deficit (1 - φ E ) must exceed a certain threshold value that depends on cloud-layer environmental lapse rate. Idealized, large-eddy simulations of moist convection forced by horizontally varying surface fluxes show strong sensitivity of maximum cumulus height to both φ E and R sub consistent with the hypothesis. Increasing R sub by only 300–400 m can lead to a large increase (>5 km) in cloud height. A passive tracer analysis shows that the bulk fractional entrainment rate decreases rapidly with R sub but depends little on φ E . However, buoyancy dilution increases as either R sub or φ E decreases; buoyancy above the level of free convection is rapidly depleted in dry environments when R sub is small. While deep convective initiation occurs with an increase in relative humidity of the near environment from moistening by earlier convection, the importance of this moisture preconditioning is inconclusive as it is accompanied by an increase in R sub . Overall, it is concluded that small changes to R sub driven by external forcing or by convection itself could be a dominant regulator of deep convective initiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Criticality in the Shallow-to-Deep Transition of Simulated Tropical Marine Convection

Idealized simulations of tropical, marine convection depict shallow, nonprecipitating cumuli located beneath the 0°C level transitioning into cumulonimbi that reach up to 12 km and higher. The timing of the transition was only weakly related to environmental stability, and 13 of the 15 simulations run with 5 different lapse-rate profiles had rain develop at nearly the same time after model start. The key quantity that apparently controlled deep convective formation was vertical acceleration inside cloudy updrafts between cloud base and the 0°C level. Below a critical value of updraft vertical acceleration, little rainfall occurred. Just as the domain-mean updraft acceleration reached the critical value, the first convection quickly grew to past 12 km altitude. Then, as acceleration increased above the critical value, rain rate averaged in the model domain increased quickly over about a 3-h-long period. The specific value of the critical updraft acceleration depended on how updrafts were defined and in what layer the acceleration was averaged; however, regardless of how criticality was defined, a robust relationship between domain-mean updraft vertical acceleration and rain rate occurred. Positive acceleration of updrafts below the 0°C level was present below 2.75 km and was largest in the 500 m above cloud base. However, the maximum difference between updraft and environmental temperatures occurred between 2 and 3 km. The domain-mean Archimedean buoyancy of updrafts relative to some reference state was a poor predictor for domain-mean rain rate. In conclusion, the exact value of the critical updraft acceleration likely depends on numerous other factors that were not investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These two warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

This paper clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO 2 , commonly known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate and longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Finally, defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced African Easterly Wave Activity with Quadrupled CO 2 in the Superparameterized CESM

African easterly wave (AEW) activity is examined in quadrupled CO 2 experiments with the superparameterized CESM (SP-CESM). The variance of 2–10-day filtered precipitation increases with warming over the West African monsoon region, suggesting increased AEW activity. The perturbation enstrophy budget is used to investigate the dynamic signature of AEW activity. The northern wave track becomes more active associated with enhanced baroclinicity, consistent with previous studies. The southern track exhibits a surprising reduction of wave activity associated with less frequent occurrence of weak waves and a slight increase in the occurrence of strong waves. These changes are connected to changes in the profile of vortex stretching and tilting that can be understood as interconnected consequences of increased static stability from the lapse rate response, weak temperature gradient balance, and the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Assessment of High-Resolution Gridded Temperature Datasets over California

Abstract High-resolution gridded datasets are in high demand because they are spatially complete and include important finescale details. Previous assessments have been limited to two to three gridded datasets or analyzed the datasets only at the station locations. Here, eight high-resolution gridded temperature datasets are assessed two ways: at the stations, by comparing with Global Historical Climatology Network–Daily data; and away from the stations, using physical principles. This assessment includes six station-based datasets, one interpolated reanalysis, and one dynamically downscaled reanalysis. California is used as a test domain because of its complex terrain and coastlines, features known to differentiate gridded datasets. As expected, climatologies of station-based datasets agree closely with station data. However, away from stations, spread in climatologies can exceed 6°C. Some station-based datasets are very likely biased near the coast and in complex terrain, due to inaccurate lapse rates. Many station-based datasets have large unphysical trends (>1°C decade−1) due to unhomogenized or missing station data—an issue that has been fixed in some datasets by using homogenization algorithms. Meanwhile, reanalysis-based gridded datasets have systematic biases relative to station data. Dynamically downscaled reanalysis has smaller biases than interpolated reanalysis, and has more realistic variability and trends. Dynamical downscaling also captures snow–albedo feedback, which station-based datasets miss. Overall, these results indicate that 1) gridded dataset choice can be a substantial source of uncertainty, and 2) some datasets are better suited for certain applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Climate Model Simulations of the Radiative Forcing and Radiative Response at Earth’s Surface

In this work, we analyze the radiative forcing and radiative response at Earth’s surface, where perturbations in the radiation budget regulate the atmospheric hydrological cycle. By applying a radiative kernel-regression technique to CMIP5 climate model simulations where CO 2 is instantaneously quadrupled, we evaluate the intermodel spread in surface instantaneous radiative forcing, radiative adjustments to this forcing, and radiative responses to surface warming. The cloud radiative adjustment to CO 2 forcing and the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response exhibit significant intermodel spread. In contrast to its counterpart at the top of the atmosphere, the temperature-mediated cloud radiative response at the surface is found to be positive in some models and negative in others. Also, the compensation between the temperature-mediated lapse rate and water vapor radiative responses found in top-of-atmosphere calculations is not present for surface radiative flux changes. Instantaneous radiative forcing at the surface is rarely reported for model simulations; as a result, intermodel differences have not previously been evaluated in global climate models. We demonstrate that the instantaneous radiative forcing is the largest contributor to intermodel spread in effective radiative forcing at the surface. We also find evidence of differences in radiative parameterizations in current models and argue that this is a significant, but largely overlooked, source of bias in climate change simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗

Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming

Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Why the Forcing from Carbon Dioxide Scales as the Logarithm of Its Concentration

Abstract The radiative forcing from carbon dioxide is approximately logarithmic in its concentration, producing about 4 W m −2 of global-mean forcing for each doubling. Although these are basic facts of climate science, competing explanations for them have been given in the literature. Here, the reasons for the logarithmic forcing of carbon dioxide are explored in detail and a simplified model for the forcing is constructed. An essential component is the particular distribution of absorption coefficients within the 15- μ m band of carbon dioxide. An alternative explanation, which does not depend on the spectrum of carbon dioxide but instead hinges on the tropospheric lapse rate, is shown to be neither necessary nor sufficient to explain the logarithmic forcing of carbon dioxide and to be generally inapplicable to well-mixed greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in T AC (x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite T AC (x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). Here we address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their T AC (x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal T AC (x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced T AC (x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonlocal, Pattern-Aware Response and Feedback Framework for Regional Climate Response

We devise a pattern-aware feedback framework for representing the forced climate response using a suite of Green’s function experiments with solar radiation perturbations. By considering the column energy balance, a comprehensive linear response function (CLRF) for important climate variables and feedback quantities such as moist static energy, sea surface temperature, albedo, cloud optical depth, and lapse rate is learned from Green’s function data. The learned CLRF delineates the effects of the energy diffusion in both the ocean and atmosphere and the pattern-aware feedbacks from the aforementioned radiatively active processes. The CLRF can then be decomposed into forcing–response mode pairs, which are in turn used to construct a reduced-order model describing the dominant dynamics of climate responses. These mode pairs capture nonlocal effects and teleconnections in the climate and thus make the reduced-order model apt for capturing regional features of climate response. A key observation is that the CLRF captures the polar-amplified response as the most excitable mode of the climate system, and this mode is explainable in the data-learned pattern-aware feedback framework. The reduced-order model can be used for predicting the response for a given forcing and for reconstructing the forcing from a given response; we demonstrate these capabilities for multiple independent forcing scenarios.

Feedback↗

Analysis of a Destructive Wind Storm on 16 November 2008 in Brisbane, Australia

During the late afternoon on 16 November 2008 the Brisbane (Australia) suburb of “The Gap” experienced extensive wind damage caused by an intense local thunderstorm. The CP2 research radar nearby detected near-surface radial velocities exceeding 44 m s -1 above The Gap while hail size reports did not exceed golf ball size, and no tornadoes were reported. This study shows that the storm environment was characterized by a layer of very moist (mixing ratios exceeding 12 g kg -1 ) near-surface air embedded in strong storm-relative low-level flow, whereas the storm-relative winds aloft were significantly weaker. And while the thermodynamic storm environment contained a range of downdraft promoting ingredients such as a ~4 km high melting level above a ~2 km deep layer with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates mostly collocated with dry ambient air, a ~1 km deep stable layer near the ground would generally lower expectations of destructive surface winds based on the downburst mechanism. We also found that once observed reflectivities exceed 70 dBZ that downdraft cooling due to hail melting and downdraft acceleration based on hail loading are likely to become non-negligible forcing mechanisms for a strong downdraft. The study found a close proximity of the hydrostatically and dynamically driven mesohigh at the base of the downdraft to a dynamically driven mesolow associated with a radar-observed low-level circulation. This proximity is hypothesized to have been instrumental in the observed anisotropic horizontal acceleration of the near-ground outflow and the ultimate strength of the Gap storm surface winds. Finally, we speculate that the 44 weak storm-relative midlevel winds allowed the downdraft to descend close to the low45 level circulation which set up this strong horizontal perturbation pressure gradient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗