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Platform for Integrated Land use And Transportation Experiments and Simulation (PILATES) v1.0
PILATES allows for flexibly and at-scale coupling of multiple models to allow for multi-scale and multi-resolution simulation of regional-scale transport networks. In particular, it couples the MATSim-derived transportation modeling framework for Behavior, Energy, Autonomy and Mobility (BEAM) with other models operating at different time scales. Rather than tightly coupling supply and demand models using shared agents and memory within the same software process, PILATES orchestrates different model runs in a containerized framework. This structure requires passing information from the demand models to BEAM in the format of a synthetic population and agent plans, and from BEAM to the demand models in terms or origin/destination tables (also known as "skims"). This allows it to take advantage of the behavioral sophistication of existing activity-based models as well as the reinforcement learning structure of MATSim replanning and adopted by BEAM, in a way that requires minimal changes to existing models. It also takes advantage of the computational performance of BEAM, which allows for simulations with millions of agents to complete in reasonable time as well as allowing for detailed mechanistic simulation of the operation of on-demand modes.
Rossi-alpha Uncertainty Quantification by Analytic, Bootstrap, and Sample Methods to Inform Fitting Best Practices
The prompt neutron period (the negative reciprocal of the prompt neutron decay constant) can be estimated using the Rossi-alpha technique that is predicated on fitting Rossi alpha histograms and of interest in nuclear criticality safety and nonproliferation. The histograms are traditionally fit with a one-exponential model; however, recent work has proposed a two-exponential model to account for reflector induced phenomenon. Until recently, the uncertainty quantification for either model was inadequate (inaccurate and demanded large measurement times). Measurement uncertainty quantification by sample and analytic methods was developed and validated in Ref. The purpose of this transaction is to (i) validate a new bootstrap method by comparing bin-by-bin error bar estimates and (ii) demonstrate how to choose bin widths and reset times to optimize precision and accuracy.
Simulated Energy Response in a Multiplicity Detector
Neutron multiplicity analysis is used for many applications, including nonproliferation and criticality safety. Multiplicity detectors have advantages over total neutron counting as they provide the ability to assess both multiplication and mass in fissionable material. In addition, multiplicity detectors can generate real-time information, e.g., dose estimation. The ability to evaluate the detector efficiency in each application is of primary importance in producing meaningful analyses. Multiplicity detectors usually house 3 He tubes within a polyethylene moderator. If the tubes are located behind different thickness of polyethylene, they will have different energy responses. This paper assesses 3 He tube efficiency as a function of neutron energy for a specific multiplicity detector.
Comparison of NMC estimates with trans-stilbene, EJ-309, and He-3 detection systems
Neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) is a technique for the assay of fissile material. In this work, three detection systems are utilized for active interrogation assay of shells of the Rocky Flats shells (highly enriched uranium, 93% 235U) stacked from 13.25-54.92 kg assemblies. The singles ($R_1$) and doubles ($R_2$) rates are calculated with each system to estimate two sample parameters: $M_L$- the leakage multiplication and F - the sample fission rate. The estimated mass, m, is found by dividing F by a constant activity per unit mass. Since we are interrogating HEU, the α ratio of (α; n) to fission neutrons is taken to be zero. The system of equations to calculate these quantities was originally derived. The Neutron Multiplicity 3 He Array Detector (NOMAD) consists of 15 3 He tubes inside polyethylene and is the traditional, capture-based detection system for NMC. The polyethylene moderates incoming neutrons for thermal capture in individual tubes. The low gamma background, discrete capture signals, and high efficiency of the NOMAD are beneficial for NMC. However, the time to slow down neutrons to thermal energies leads to a system die away time on the scale of microseconds. Comparatively, the Rossi-alpha Measurements – Rapid Organic (n, γ) Discrimination Detector (RAMRODD) and the Organic Scintillator Array (OSCAR) are scatter-based detection systems. RAMRODD consists of 8, 5.08 by 5.08 cm EJ-309 liquid scintillators in 4 pairs, evenly-spaced with 90 degrees separation about the center of each assembly. OSCAR consists of a single array of 12, 5.08 by 5.08 cm trans-stilbene crystals aligned with the center of the assembly. Scatter-based systems detect fast neutrons without any moderation, leading to system die away times on the scale of tens of nanoseconds. This allows much shorter timing gate widths compared to thermal systems, thus increasing counting statistics of true correlated fission events. However, scatter-based systems are susceptible to neutron cross-talk when an incident neutron scatters off one detector and interacts in an adjacent detector, causing two seemingly correlated detection signals. The equations developed adjust for cross-talk to conduct NMC with scatter-based systems.
Prediction of tissue optical properties using the Monte Carlo modeling of photon transport in turbid media and integrating spheres
Monte Carlo methods are an established technique for simulating light transport in biological tissue. Integrating spheres make experimental measurements of the reflectance and transmittance of a sample straightforward and inexpensive. This work presents an extension to existing Monte Carlo photon transport methods to simulate integrating sphere experiments. Crosstalk between spheres in dual-sphere experiments is accounted for in the method. Analytical models, previous works on Monte Carlo photon transport, and experimental measurements of a synthetic tissue phantom validate this method. We present two approaches for using this method to back-calculate the optical properties of samples. Experimental and simulation uncertainties are propagated through both methods. Both back-calculation methods find the optical properties of a sample accurately and precisely. Our model is implemented in standard Python 3 and CUDA C++ [J. Nickolls, I. Buck, M. Garland, and K. Skadron, ACM Queue 6 , 40 ( 2008 ) ] and is publicly available in Code 1.
Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in Soil Environment model script and input data for soil moisture-respiration responses in tropical forests
Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet models remain poorly parameterized for tropical forests, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) with tropical forest observational data, and comparing model predictions with a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We used the field data to parameterize and run tests in the model.Results: Measured CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. We used this data to parameterize the model, which then predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes in wetter and fertile forests with drying, and decreased fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment in the forests initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests, with sustained suppression after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season), as predicted by the model. The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Code files:CORPSE_array.py: Defines the equations of the CORPSE modelCORPSE_solvers: Functions for running the CORPSE model using either iterative or ordinary differential equation (ODE) solversrun_Panama_sims.py: Read in datasets and run the model simulations for this studyInput data:PanamaGradientEcosystemChem_BT_CPools_20152016CO2_DC_20190615.xlsx: Plot characteristics used in running model simulationsLiCor compiled surface flux only to 2020_03 DC_20200825.xlsx: Surface gas exchange fluxes used in model-data comparisonsPARCHED litterfall data for Ben Sulman LD 20200902.xlsx: Litterfall data used to drive model simulationsInitialization data:state_500y_20190823.csv: Initial state of model pools based on previous spinup runsOutput data:Outputs/prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using original model moisture response function.Outputs/updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using updated model moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using original moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Field plot location data:There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site).
When Do Efficiency and Demand Flexibility Go Hand-in-hand?
Utilities have been experimenting with integrated demand side management (IDSM) programs since the 2000s. The potential benefits of improved program cost-effectiveness and customer engagement from combining energy efficiency (EE), demand flexibility (DF), and other distributed energy resources into an integrated customer offering have been recognized although there are several known regulatory and program administrative challenges. In addition, as buildings adopt EE measures, the baseline load profile change generally reduces the potential load that can be shed or shifted. This has been a significant technical barrier for customers and program implementers. However, it is a myth that EE always reduces DF. Load change from EE can be time-varying. Therefore, whether EE improves or reduces DF should be evaluated on an individual measure basis accounting for weather dependencies and interactions. For IDSM program design purpose, it is useful to understand how common EE features influence DF and the underlying building physics. In this paper, we use parametric simulations of a prototype medium office building to evaluate how various EE features influence DF, measured by a “demand decrease intensity” (W/ft2) metric. These EE features cover envelope characteristics, internal loads, and airside HVAC system. The parametric analysis shows that some efficient HVAC control measures will increase DF but not the traditional building envelope, lighting, and ventilation-related efficiency measures. These findings contribute to the technical basis for achieving enhanced energy benefits by packaging appropriate HVAC control measures in IDSM program design. Program developers should further validate these results in targeted pilot projects.
RELAP5-3D Modeling of High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) Test PG-26
The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University (OSU) is a scaled integral effects experiment designed to investigate transient behavior in high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors with prismatic fuel and reflector blocks. Several tests have been completed, and more are still planned to at the HTTF, including depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC) and pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) transients. This report analyses test PG-26, a progression of the Double Ended Inlet-Outlet Crossover Duct Break transient that is referred to as a DCC. PG-26 has been performed at the HTTF between May 30 and June 30, 2019. Core initial conditions (i.e., before the DCC started) have been met using low power (<100 kW) and two of ten available electric heaters. The DCC transient was initiated during the 50 th hour of the test. The break valves were opened, and hot helium from the core and cold helium from the reactor cavity simulation tank (RCST) started mixing. The gases flowed in a countercurrent fashion, where the top half of the hot duct contained hot helium that flowed in one direction and cold helium that flowed in the other direction in the bottom half of the duct. After the pressure and density reached equilibrium, the event entered a diffusion mode. The onset of a reverse natural circulation was not observed during the DCC period of the test. Version 4.4.2ie of the RELAP5-3D computer code has been used to model the HTTF PG-26 test, and results have been compared to available high-quality measured data. The model used in this study is the quality-controlled HTTF RELAP5-3D model (HTTF base 2018-04-19 QA), originally developed by P. Bayless. The report includes RELAP5-3D results of the “base calculations” as well as some sensitivities to important uncertain model inputs, such as primary helium mass flow rate, core ceramic thermal properties, as well as heat evacuation and loop friction models. Using the base RELAP5-3D model predicts a countercurrent helium flow in the hot duct observed at the beginning of the DCC, but instead of going into a molecular diffusion mode, the model predicts the onset of natural convection. Increasing friction in the core and hot duct prevents the natural convection from happening in some of the simulations. Although some temperatures are well predicted (and even overpredicted), the general tendency is to underpredict the ceramic and helium temperatures and heat removal rates during the DCC, resulting in many of the assessment findings being in minimal or insufficient agreement with the data. It is worth noting that the described discrepancies between measured data and RELAP5-3D predictions are not RELAP5-3D code limitations. More so, they reflect limitations in boundary condition and thermal property knowledge. While the RELAP5-3D calculations of the test provide some insights into what happens during the transient, and point to missing or potentially uncertain data to which the experimenters can direct their attention, the principal conclusion is that the PG-26 test data are insufficient for a system code assessment.
Uncertainty Analysis for a Criticality Benchmark [Slides]
This presentation discusses how KRUSTY was analyzed with LANL’s MCNP neutron transport code, Monte Carlo N-Particle. In the Monte Carlo method, neutrons are born in fission events and fly around the geometry having events (e.g., scatter, capture, fission, escape) according to the natural probabilities. “Natural probabilities” are given as neutron cross sections , which are measured and evaluated nuclear data. One of the goals of the benchmark project is to improve the nuclear cross sections (and the codes that use them). In this work, the response of interest is called k eff , which describes the neutron multiplication in a near critical system. Like most quantities, k eff is not measured directly; it is only inferred. In summation, MCNP results for k eff matched the measurements extremely well. The evaluated uncertainties are asymmetric and smaller than 0.00100 (e.g., + 0.00080 / – 0.00062). The largest uncertainties are due to alignment.
Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models
Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.
IER 557: Godiva IV Reproducibility/Characterization [Slides]
The primary goal of the IER 557 Godiva IV reproducibility/characterization process is to determine reproducibility for 70°C bursts. The secondary goal is to characterize the radiation field, including absolute calibration with radchem counting of fission foils.
IER 488: MUSiC Accomplishments and Goals [Slides]
IER-488: Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) consists of measurements of bare, HEU systems covering a large range of reactivities. Multiple detector systems and analysis methods are being used to obtain detector-independent results. Massive amounts of data and information available. Substantial analysis has been completed for both critical and subcritical configurations. Work in progress is largely novel research and will result in several conference proceedings, journal publications, and a subcritical benchmark. There is still a large amount of data that has not been analyzed and much more to come from the analysis of the Measurements of Uranium Subcritical and Critical.
Active Neutron Multiplicity Counting of Kilogram Quantities of Highly Enriched Uranium [Slides]
LANL seeks to analyze neutron noise techniques for large HEU assemblies, specifically neutron multiplicity counting (NMC). NMC provides the activity and quantity of fissionable and fissile material, which is useful in safeguards and criticality safety.
Neutron Multiplicity Counting Diagnosis of Uranium Assemblies Interrogated by Cf-252 [Poster]
Researchers concluded: First neutron multiplicity counting of tens of kilograms of 235 U with organic scintillators; leakage multiplication estimates to be improved by incorporating detector cross-talk; provides data comparison for “Multiplicity Theory Beyond the Point Model;" promotes continued use of organic scintillators for NCERC and elsewhere.
Deterministic and Monte Carlo Nuclear Data Adjustment Methods [Slides]
For the Bayesian Monte Carlo methodology, a need to understand convergence of the posterior moments as a function of the number of parameter realizations is required. In high-dimensional systems, it can be very costly to sample entire parameter space and perform functional evaluation for every realization. Bayesian Monte Carlo allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and prior/posterior PDF shape. The Bayesian Stochastic Collocation Method is a deterministic approach to “sample” the parameter space. It allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and posterior PDF shape. Higher-order posterior moments (i.e., skewness, kurtosis, etc.) can be studied through polynomial expansion. Tensor product quadrature scales poorly and can use sparse grid quadrature methods.
Analysis of a Bulk 237 Np Oxide Sample for Trace Actinides
A neptunium oxide sample was dissolved and trace actinide constituents were measured by isotope dilution ICP-MS (for 239–244 Pu, 233–238 U, 237 Np, 241–243 Am) and alpha spectrometry ( 238 Pu, 242 Cm, 244 Cm). This material contained significant quantities of transuranic elements, notably americium and curium. The isotopic composition of the material will continue to evolve over time due to radioactive decay; the measurements reported here include all isotopes decay corrected to a reference date of 1/1/2022. These factors may be considerations in criticality studies of the related 237 Np sphere.
Updates to the R -matrix Analyses of 233,235 U and 239 Pu; Updates to 63,65 Cu Evaluations in the RRR+URR; Current Status of 16 O Evaluation Up to 6 MeV [Slides]
Abstract not provided.