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At least 451 records · Page 25

Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those it is found that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely because of differences in instrumentation, calibration, and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat-dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory), and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but they poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration, or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Finally, data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping Biophysical Parameters for Land Surface Modeling over the Continental US Using MODIS and Landsat

In terms of the space cities occupy, urbanization appears as a minor land transformation. However, it permanently modifies land's ecological functions, altering its carbon, energy, and water fluxes. It is therefore necessary to develop a land cover characterization at fine spatial and temporal scales to capture urbanization's effects on surface fluxes. We develop a series of biophysical vegetation parameters such as the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, vegetation greenness fraction, and roughness length over the continental US using MODIS and Landsat products for 2001. A 13-class land cover map was developed at a climate modeling grid (CMG) merging the 500mMODIS land cover and the 30m impervious surface area from the National Land Cover Database. The landscape subgrid heterogeneity was preserved using fractions of each class from the 500 m and 30 m into the CMG. Biophysical parameters were computed using the 8-day composite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index produced by the North American Carbon Program. In addition to urban impact assessments, this dataset is useful for the computation of surface fluxes in land, vegetation, and urban models and is expected to be widely used in different land cover and land use change applications.

Biophysical↗

Predictive Model for Particle Residence Time Distributions in Riser Reactors. Part 1: Model Development and Validation

Here in this computational study, we model the mixing of biomass pyrolysis vapor with solid catalyst in circulating riser reactors with a focus on the determination of solid catalyst residence time distributions (RTDs). A comprehensive set of 2D and 3D simulations were conducted for a pilot-scale riser using the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid modeling framework with and without sub-grid-scale models for the gas-solids interaction. A validation test case was also simulated and compared to experiments, showing agreement in the pressure gradient and RTD mean and spread. For simulation cases, it was found that for accurate RTD prediction, the Johnson and Jackson partial slip solids boundary condition was required for all models and a sub-grid model is useful so that ultra high resolutions grids that are very computationally intensive are not required. Finally, we discovered a 2/3 scaling relation for the RTD mean and spread when comparing resolved 2D simulations to validated unresolved 3D sub-grid-scale model simulations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Cybersecurity Workforce Training for SMR Integration into Distribution Grids: A Competency Framework and Containerized Hands-On Lab for the SMR/DER/Microgrid Boundary

Small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors are entering the U.S. distribution grid as synchronous generation on feeders designed for loads and inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs). No existing cybersecurity training program addresses this intersection of nuclear operations, DER management, and operational technology security. As subcontractor to Iowa State University on the CyDERMS Center, Argonne analyzed the relevant standards and training landscape, translated the resulting gaps into a twelve-objective competency framework across distribution-operator and graduate-analyst role tracks, and built a containerized training lab using a ∼400-bus composite grid model behind a realistically simulated Modbus TCP SCADA stack. The analysis isolates the balance-of-plant / energy-management-system (BOP/EMS) boundary as the critical jurisdictional seam where, as of March 2026, neither NRC nor NERC CIP cleanly claims cybersecurity responsibility for distribution-connected SMRs. The framework maps each objective across NIST CSF 2.0, ISA/IEC 62443, NIST NICE Task–Knowledge–Skill statements, and NRC RG 5.71 awareness-and-training controls. The training lab implements operator-recognition assessment scenarios spanning grid-side disturbances and telemetry-layer anomalies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Recent Improvements in PV+Battery Modeling in NREL's System Advisor Model

This poster covers recent updates to the NREL System Advisor Model's battery model that can be coupled to the PV model to add value to both front of meter and behind the meter systems. Topics include new dispatch algorithms focusing on smoothing the output of a PV plant to meet ramp rate requirements and responding to price signals to maximize system revenue, validated battery lifetime models, grid outage simulations and resiliency metrics, and the new levelized cost of storage (LCOS) metric. We will also share preliminary results from NREL analysis projects using these features.

battery↗

Toward Simulating Turbulent Wall-Bounded Flows at High Reynolds Numbers on Exascale Platforms

Given that wall resolved LES (WRLES) of high Reynolds number flows will continue to be intractable on even exascale computing platforms, there is considerable effort to make hybrid RANS/LES (HRLES) methods the tool of choice for predictive simulations of high-Re separated flows. The fidelity of HRLES depends on the ability of the subgrid model to account for the effects of the filtered scales on the resolved scales, and on the numerical schemes that are used to evolve the Navier-Stokes equations. While higher-order numerical schemes, with low dissipation/dispersion errors (and higher arithmetic intensity), are commonly used for canonical flow simulations (on simpler geometries), the bulk of the high-Re flow simulations on complex geometry still employ nominally second-order accurate schemes in structured/unstructured flow solvers. Hence, there is a need for better sub-grid models that can improve the predictive capability of both the higher-order flow solvers and existing second-order accurate flow solvers, for simulating turbulent separated flows. This talk is about ongoing efforts to develop HRLES subgrid models from DNS/WRLES simulations of canonical flows over curved and sharply discontinuous surfaces and their ability to predict high-Re flows on current petascale platforms.

Balakrishnan, Ramesh↗

GMI-IPS: Processing & Visualization Software Used in ATom DC-8 Aircraft Studies

NASA's Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) deployed in each of the four seasons during 2016-2018, the DC-8 aircraft in order to establish global-scale datasets intended to improve the representation of chemically reactive gases in global atmospheric chemistry models (ACMs). The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) executed simulations for each ATom flight using the GMI Chemistry Transport Model (GMI-CTM) to provide species concentrations of chemical gases along the DC-8 flight transects. To solve the problem of translating the GMI-CTM simulation data to the unique spatial resolutions of each ATom flight, the GMI ICARTT Processing Software (GMI-IPS) was developed.The GMI-IPS is written in Python and provides data processing, flight extraction, and visualization support for aircraft research projects using ICARTT format, which is a standard format for airborne instrument data. Additionally, the GMI-IPS interpolates global gridded model data from Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) to ICARTT compatible flight transects. Software classes for instruments and collections provided by the ATom DC-8 aircraft such as MER10, MMS, etc. are derived from a common base class. Other functionality provided by the GMI-IPS are: deriving missing flight entries along a transect, reading ICARTT entries from file, and providing Python data structures for storing flight and model information, and more.The GMI-IPS is GIT source controlled, has approximately 30,000 lines of code, and supports parallelization across data collections. It delivered GMI-CTM data for more than forty distinct DC-8 aircraft flights that took place under ATom. The output ICARTT files adhere to format standard V1.1, and pass the scan utility provided by NASA LaRC Airborne Science Data for Atmospheric Composition. This presentation will include a software and methods overview, and results from ATom, including assessments using the GMI-CTM showing how well observations from ATom flight transects represent a broader region.

Damon, M. R.↗

The Influence of Pickup Protons, from Interstellar Neutral Hydrogen, on the Propagation of Interplanetary Shocks from the Halloween 2003 Solar Events to ACE and Ulysses: A 3-D MHD Modeling Study

We describe our 3-D, time ]dependent, MHD solar wind model that we recently modified to include the physics of pickup protons from interstellar neutral hydrogen. The model has a time-dependent lower boundary condition, at 0.1 AU, that is driven by source surface map files through an empirical interface module. We describe the empirical interface and its parameter tuning to maximize model agreement with background (quiet) solar wind observations at ACE. We then give results of a simulation study of the famous Halloween 2003 series of solar events. We began with shock inputs from the Fearless Forecast real ]time shock arrival prediction study, and then we iteratively adjusted input shock speeds to obtain agreement between observed and simulated shock arrival times at ACE. We then extended the model grid to 5.5 AU and compared those simulation results with Ulysses observations at 5.2 AU. Next we undertook the more difficult tuning of shock speeds and locations to get matching shock arrival times at both ACE and Ulysses. Then we ran this last case again with neutral hydrogen density set to zero, to identify the effect of pickup ions. We show that the speed of interplanetary shocks propagating from the Sun to Ulysses is reduced by the effects of pickup protons. We plan to make further improvements to the model as we continue our benchmarking process to 10 AU, comparing our results with Cassini observations, and eventually on to 100 AU, comparing our results with Voyager 1 and 2 observations.

Detman, T. R.↗

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Technology in Power System Applications

The primary purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the advancement in artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) technologies and their applications in power systems. It offers a foundation for understanding the transformative role of AI/ML in power systems and aims to stimulate further research and development in this area. This report begins with a historical perspective of AI/ML technologies, then explores their advancement to today’s prominence. The document highlights key contributors to the success of AI/ML technologies, including increased computational power, greater data availability, innovative algorithms, and advanced tools. It further introduces various AI/ML techniques, including supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning, graph neural networks, and generative AI. It also emphasizes the critical importance of ensuring the safety, security, and trustworthiness of these AI/ML techniques within this sector. The report reviews the recent representative advancements in various power system applications enhanced by AI/ML techniques, underscoring key developments and their transformative impact as evidenced by numerous studies. It also explores both the opportunities and challenges associated with the application of AI/ML technologies to improve power system applications. While the report extensively covers AI/ML applications in power systems, focusing primarily on the technical and operational aspects, it may not thoroughly explore the sociopolitical, economic, and broader regulatory implications of AI/ML integration in power systems. AI/ML techniques hold significant potential for enhancing power system applications; however, they are not omnipotent. It is crucial to acknowledge their limitations and understand that they may not be able to address all challenges in the power system domain. Various factors must be considered that influence the implementation, adoption, and effectiveness of AI/ML solutions, including but not limited to safety, security, transparency, and trustworthiness. Additionally, the incorporation of advanced human–machine interfaces is essential, as it enables humans to validate the effectiveness of AI/ML solutions while remaining actively engaged, fostering trust in AI/ML deployment. Finally, the report summarizes AI/ML research activities supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) through the Advanced Grid Modeling (AGM) program. The work aligns with the interests and mission of DOE-OE AGM, with the report serving as a resource for identifying existing progress and for pinpointing future applications within AI/ML that need further exploration and support.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Sequence Impedance Modeling of Grid-Forming Inverters

Grid-forming control of inverter-based resources has been identified as a critical technology for operating power systems with high levels of inverter-based resources. This paper presents the sequence impedance modeling of a grid-forming inverter to evaluate its small-signal stability properties. Droop control structure is implemented to control the inverter in grid-forming mode, and the impact of individual controller on the inverter impedance characteristics is discussed. The developed sequence impedance model is compared with that of the grid-following inverter. It is found from the developed sequence impedance models that grid-forming inverters are less prone to harmonic resonance problems during operation with weaker grids. The developed models are validated using PSCAD simulations.

grid- following inverter↗

Sequence Impedance Modeling of Grid-Forming Inverters

Grid-forming control of inverter-based resources has been identified as a critical technology for operating power systems with high levels of inverter-based resources. This paper presents the sequence impedance modeling of a grid-forming inverter to evaluate its small-signal stability properties. Droop control structure is implemented to control the inverter in grid-forming mode, and the impact of individual controller on the inverter impedance characteristics is discussed. The developed sequence impedance model is compared with that of the grid-following inverter. It is found from the developed sequence impedance models that grid-forming inverters are less prone to harmonic resonance problems during operation with weaker grids. The developed models are validated using PSCAD simulations.

grid-following inverter↗

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

CRADA Number NFE-17-06866 with Active Energy Systems, Inc. (CRADA Final Report)

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) NFE-17-06866 between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Active Energy Systems Inc. (AES) focused on studying and modeling a low cost, high efficiency energy storage technology. The successful development of low-cost, high-efficiency energy storage is a significant bottleneck in the implementation of intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. AES is a startup company developing a heat exchange technology to utilize a low-temperature phase change material (PCM). The work done under this CRADA explored this technology’s ability to augment a heat pump/heat engine device to convert electricity into thermal energy and vice versa, operating to complement the needs of the electric grid. Modeling, design and development of a prototype to prove the technology was successful, but current production economics and market demand make further exploration undesirable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

CERF – A Geospatial Model for Assessing Future Energy Production Technology Expansion Feasibility

Electricity system expansion planning faces significant challenges not only because of commonly modeled uncertainties such as future demand growth, fuel prices, and technology cost and performance, but also because of challenges such as climate change and carbon policies that can affect supply and demand. Changes in energy technology, natural resource availability, and population migration and growth will affect the feasibility of power plant siting, potentially hindering the achievement of policy goals. New modeling approaches are needed that couple future projections of energy system expansion with “on the ground” feasibility modeling—where both are informed by a consistent set of assumptions about future climate trends, resource availability, climate policy, socioeconomics, and environmental regulations. This research describes the development and evaluation of the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model, a geospatial tool for scenario analysis of electricity system expansions.

grid expansion, water-energy nexus, power plant si↗

Improving the Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in the United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day Information

Wheat is themost important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely production forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop typemasks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel (area within the CMG pixel occupied by wheat), and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: the Unites States (US), Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest), while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

Production↗

Reconfigurable and Dynamic Distribution Systems Enabled Using Self-Sustainable Minimal-Microgrids with Region Based Stability Guarantees

In this paper, a reconfigurable and dynamic distribution system is designed using self-sustainable minimal-microgrids (min-MGs). Particularly, multiple dynamic microgrids are implemented by aggregating local min-MGs in a controllable way to facilitate service restoration at critical grid infrastructures, especially during severe power outages (e.g., those induced by natural disasters). These dynamic microgrids are implemented surrounding inverter interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) to pick up local critical loads. Stable transient process during neighboring microgrid disconnection and resynchronization is realized by involving additional control terms in the secondary control level. Meanwhile, in order to ensure a stable operation with dynamic topology change, a computationally efficient region-based stability assessment approach is developed to ensure stability guarantees of each inverter dominated min-MG with potential changes of external grids modeled as disturbances. In contrast to conventional point-by-point stability evaluation approaches, the proposed region-based stability analysis can intuitively exhibit the feasible region comprised of stable operating points and identify sufficient stability margin to tolerate disturbances of dynamic system topology variations. Theoretical analysis is verified using simulation in MATLAB/Simulink.

distribution systems↗

THE PREVALENCE OF GAS OUTFLOWS IN TYPE 2 AGNs. II. 3D BICONICAL OUTFLOW MODELS

We present 3D models of biconical outflows combined with a thin dust plane for investigating the physical properties of the ionized gas outflows and their effect on the observed gas kinematics in type 2 active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Using a set of input parameters, we construct a number of models in 3D and calculate the spatially integrated velocity and velocity dispersion for each model. We find that three primary parameters, i.e., intrinsic velocity, bicone inclination, and the amount of dust extinction, mainly determine the simulated velocity and velocity dispersion. Velocity dispersion increases as the intrinsic velocity or the bicone inclination increases, while velocity (i.e., velocity shifts with respect to systemic velocity) increases as the amount of dust extinction increases. Simulated emission-line profiles well reproduce the observed [O iii] line profiles, e.g., narrow core and broad wing components. By comparing model grids and Monte Carlo simulations with the observed [O iii] velocity–velocity dispersion distribution of ∼39,000 type 2 AGNs, we constrain the intrinsic velocity of gas outflows ranging from ∼500 to ∼1000 km s{sup −1} for the majority of AGNs, and up to ∼1500–2000 km s{sup −1} for extreme cases. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the number ratio of AGNs with negative [O iii] velocity to AGNs with positive [O iii] velocity correlates with the outflow opening angle, suggesting that outflows with higher intrinsic velocity tend to have wider opening angles. These results demonstrate the potential of our 3D models for studying the physical properties of gas outflows, applicable to various observations, including spatially integrated and resolved gas kinematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗