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At least 451 records · Page 25

Climatological Structures of the GRIPS Models: Mean States and Forcing

The GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS) is assessing and monitoring the performance of state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). A wide variety of tasks have been initiated. These are designed to: (1) assess the ability of the GCMs to represent the current climatological structure of the troposphere and middle atmosphere,(2) to compare their response to imposed forcing anomalies, and (3) to estimate the certainty with which future climate perturbations can be predicted. This paper is concerned with assessments of the climatological states in the GCM simulations. Comparing the simulations with observational datasets reveals considerable discrepancies in the modelled fields. While it might be anticipated that certain types of biases in the model simulations might be related to the formulation of different aspects of the numerical package (dynamical schemes, cloud schemes, radiation transfer, inclusion of gravity wave drag), there is no clear relationship between these features. This paper attempts to draw a more comprehensive picture of the GCMs'performance than has previously been shown, by comparing the dominant forcing mechanisms in the models with observational estimates, and relating model deficiencies to the differences in the physical mechanisms in the GCMS.

Pawson, Steven↗

Turbulent Diffusivities for Momentum, Heat, Salt and Passive Scalars

A program began ten years ago to build a turbulence model to describe high Reynolds numbers flows. Specifically, the aim was to devise a model that would satisfy two basic conditions: reproduce available turbulence data (laboratory, numerical simulations, etc.) concerning shear driven flows, buoyancy driven flows, 2D turbulence, freely decaying turbulence etc., and yet be manageable so as to be used, for example, in General Circulation Models (GCM'S). The model was presented in a series of papers that have appeared in Physics of Fluids since 1996. A total of about 80 turbulence statistics were reproduced. The model has no adjustable parameters. The next step was to apply the model to construct the vertical diffusities K for moment K(sub m), temperature K(sub h), salt K(sub s). and passive scalars K(sub c). First, we took K(sub s) = K(sub h) and tested the model using the GFDL ocean model. The results for the profiles of T and S vs. depth are indistinguishable from those derived using the latest model, the KPP model by the NCAR group. Presently, we are running the same Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) code relaxing the assumptive K(sub s) = K(sub h). Indeed, the turbulence model yields a salt diffusivity that depends on Ri and R rho (= Beta delta S/delta z/alpha delta T/delta z) in such a way that K(sub s) may be quite different from K(sub h). Salt fingers and double diffusivity laboratory data are reproduced. Results from the ocean model will be available shortly. Finally, we are trying to derive the horizontal diffusivities with the goal of providing a physically acceptable representation of mesoscale eddies. The recently suggested GMW parameterization has improved several O-GCM results and the goal here is to try to derive/justify it from a turbulence model and/or propose improvements/modifications. Theoretical work is in progress.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Regional Studies and Applications with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid Data Assimilation System

The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) incorporating the GEOS SG-GCM, is used for regional analysis, forecast, and climate applications. The region of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution, mostly used in experiments, is a rectangle over the U.S. The SG-DAS is capable of reproducing regional mesoscale fields, patterns and diagnostics that are not produced by the medium uniform resolution run with the same amount of grid points as for the SG. The SG-DAS regional analyses and diagnostics are used for: validation of regional climate simulation experiments produced with the SG-GCM for the U.S. 1988 summer drought; and are planned to be used for atmospheric chemistry transport experiments. Also, a case study is conducted on a super-typhoon development in December 1997. The SG-DAS appears to be a viable candidate for a variety of regional studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗

Turbulent Diffusivities for Momentum, Heat, Salt and Passive Scalars

A program began ten years ago to build a turbulence model to describe high Reynolds numbers flows. Specifically, the aim was to devise a model that would satisfy two basic conditions: reproduce available turbulence data (laboratory, numerical simulations, etc.) concerning shear driven flows, buoyancy driven flows, 2D turbulence, freely decaying turbulence etc., and yet be manageable so as to be used, for example, in GCM'S. The model was presented in a series of papers that have appeared in Physics of FLuids since 1996. A total of about 80 turbulence statistics were reproduced. The model has no adjustable parameters. The next step was to apply the model to construct the vertical diffusivities K for moment K(sub m), temperature K(sub h), salt K(sub g) and passive scalars K(sub c). First, we took K(sub g) = K(sub h) and tested the model using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) ocean model. The results for the profiles of T and S vs. depth are indistinguishable from those derided using the latest model, the KPP model by the NCAR group. Presently, we are running the same GFDL code relaxing the assumptive K(sub g) = K(sub h). Indeed, the turbulence model yields a salt diffusivity that depends on Ri and R Rho (= Beta Sigma S/Sigma z/Alpha Sigma T/Sigma z) in such a way that K(sub g) may be quite different from K(sub h). Salt fingers and double diffusivity laboratory data are reproduced. Results from the ocean model will be available shortly. Finally, we are trying to derive the horizontal diffusivities with the goal of providing a physically acceptable representation of mesoscale eddies. The recently suggested GMW parameterization has improved several O-GCM results and the goal here is to try to derive/justify it from a turbulence model and/or propose improvements/modifications. Theoretical work is in progress.

Canuto, Vittorio↗

Ocean Turbulence I: One-Point Closure Model Momentum and Heat Vertical Diffusivities

Since the early forties, one-point turbulence closure models have been the canonical tools used to describe turbulent flows in many fields. In geophysics, Mellor and Yamada applied such models using the 1980 state-of-the art. Since then, no improvements were introduced to alleviate two major difficulties: 1) closure of the pressure correlations, which affects the correct determination of the critical Richardson number Ri(sub cr) above which turbulent mixing is no longer possible and 2) the need to express the non-local third-order moments (TOM) in terms of lower order moments rather than via the down-gradient approximation as done thus far, since the latter seriously underestimates the TOMs. Since 1) and 2) are still being dealt with adjustable parameters which weaken the credibility of the models, alternative models, not based on turbulence modeling, have been suggested. The aim of this paper is to show that new information, partly derived from the newest 2-point closure model discussed, can be used to solve these shortcomings. The new one-point closure model, which in its simplest form is algebraic and thus simple to implement, is first shown to reproduce a variety of data. Then, it is used in a Ocean-General Circulation Model (O-GCM) where it reproduces well a large variety of ocean data. While phenomenological models are specifically tuned to ocean turbulence, the present model is not. It is first tested against laboratory data on stably stratified flows and then used in an O-GCM. It is more general, more predictive and more resilient, e.g., it can incorporate phenomena like wave-breaking at the surface, salinity diffusivity, non-locality, etc. One important feature that naturally comes out of the new model is that the predicted Richardson critical value Ri(sub cr) is Ri (sub cr approx. = 1) in agreement with both Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and empirical evidence while all previous models predicted Ri (sub cr approx. = 0.2) which led to a considerable underestimate of the extent of turbulent mixing and thus to an incorrect mixed layer depth. The predicted temperature and salinity profiles (vs. depth) are presented and compared with those of the Kolmogorov-Petruvsky-Piskunuv (KPP) model and Levitus data.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Ocean Turbulence: Two-Point Closure Model Momentum, Heat and Salt Vertical Diffusivities in the Presence of Shear - Paper 3

In papers 1 and 2 we have presented the results of the most updated 1-point closure model for the turbulent vertical diffusivities of momentum, heat and salt, K(sub m,h,s). In this paper, we derive the analytic expressions for K(sub m,h,s) using a new 2-point closure model that has recently been developed and successfully tested against some approx. 80 turbulence statistics for different flows. The new model has no free parameters. The expressions for K(sub m, h. s) are analytical functions of two stability parameters: the Turner number R(sub rho) (salinity gradient/temperature gradient) and the Richardson number R(sub i) (temperature gradient/shear). The turbulent kinetic energy K and its rate of dissipation may be taken local or non-local (K-epsilon model). Contrary to all previous models that to describe turbulent mixing below the mixed layer (ML) have adopted three adjustable "background diffusivities" for momentum. heat and salt, we propose a model that avoids such adjustable diffusivities. We assume that below the ML, K(sub m,h,s) have the same functional dependence on R(sub i) and R(sub rho) derived from the turbulence model. However, in order to compute R(sub i) below the ML, we use data of vertical shear due to wave-breaking measured by Gargett et al. (1981). The procedure frees the model from adjustable background diffusivities and indeed we use the same model throughout the entire vertical extent of the ocean. Using the new K(sub m,h, s), we run an O-GCM and present a variety of results that we compare with Levitus and the KPP model. Since the traditional 1-point (used in papers 1 and 2) and the new 2-point closure models used here represent different modeling philosophies and procedures, testing them in an O-GCM is indispensable. The basic motivation is to show that the new 2-point closure model gives results that are overall superior to the 1-point closure in spite of the fact that the latter rely on several adjustable parameters while the new 2-point closure has none. After the extensive comparisons presented in papers 1 and 2, we conclude that the new model presented here is overall superior for it not only is parameter free but also 2 because is part of a more general turbulence model that has been previously successfully tested on a wide variety of other types of turbulent flows.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Successes, Problems and Prospects

After two decades of active research, a much better understanding of the broader role of biospheric processes on the local climate has emerged. A surface-albedo increase, particularly in desert border regions of the subtropics (as well as the deforested tropical regions), leads to a net surface energy deficit, which in turn leads to a relative sinking and reduced rainfall. On the other hand, studies of the influence of altered ratios of evapotranspiration and sensible fluxes, in situations where the net solar income is unchanged, show that evapotranspiration is a more desirable flux for increased precipitation and vitality of the biosphere. Besides providing water vapor and convective available potential energy (CAPE) to the lower troposphere, evapotranspiration helps in building larger CAPE before "turning on" the moist-convection. Larger CAPE in the lower troposphere enables convection to reach into the deeper atmosphere thereby heating the upper troposphere; indeed, moist-convection is also accompanied by the evaporation of falling precipitation that cools and moistens the lower atmosphere. While convective, as opposed to stratiform, precipitation reduces the fractional cloud cover; it also allows more solar radiation to reach the surface thereby invigorating surface fluxes. These, together with moist convection and associated downdrafts help to maintain the characteristic upper temperature limit(s) of the moist-land as well as oceanic regions. Regardless of the above understanding, several important problems continue to hinder the accurate simulation of a realistic land atmosphere interaction in a numerical model (both GCM and/or Meso-scale models). Among the unsolved problems are parameterization of sub-grid scale land processes that include small-scale variability of soil moisture, snow-cover and snow-physics, the biodiversity of the biosphere, orography, local drainage characteristics under natural conditions, and surface flow over the natural terrain. A well-known non-linear response of surface fluxes to these variations makes the problem of parameterizing land-atmosphere interaction processes hard-to-address and simulate, particularly in a GCM. In our presentation, we will discuss how orographic, snow-cover, and water table interactions can be included into a Simple Biosphere Model such as SiB/SSiB. Figure I shows how, in the Russian region, spring snowmelt affects the soil moisture profile. Corresponding figure 2 shows how interaction with the water table decreases the natural evapotranspiration in the Sahel region simulation. While these simulations need better validation with data, the simulations reveal that surface processes are sensitive to these parameterizations. With these developments, we continue to advance our understanding of the interaction of land with the atmosphere aloft, but the intrinsic variability of the newer parameters, e. g., hydraulic properties of the soil, diminish the positive influences of these advances on the improved climate simulation with GCMs.

Sud, Y. C.↗

A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid Data Assimilation System for Regional Studies and Applications

The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) incorporating the GEOS SG-GCM, has been developed and tested. The area/region of interest used in experiments is a rectangle over the U.S. with -60 km horizontal resolution and 70 layers extending from the surface to 0.1 hPa. The forecast error statistics has been reassessed for finer regional resolution. The experiments are performed for winter and summer seasons. The SG-GCM and SG-DAS experiments show that a definite down-scaling takes place over the area of interest. The SG-DAS is capable of reproducing regional mesoscale patterns and diagnostics that are not produced by coarser uniform resolution runs. The SG-DAS fields and diagnostics are used for regional forecasting, new instrument impact studies, and for validation of regional climate simulation experiments.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Timescales of Land Surface Evapotranspiration Response

Soil and vegetation exert strong control over the evapotranspiration rate, which couples the land surface water and energy balances. A method is presented to quantify the timescale of this surface control using daily general circulation model (GCM) simulation values of evapotranspiration and precipitation. By equating the time history of evaporation efficiency (ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration) to the convolution of precipitation and a unit kernel (temporal weighting function), response functions are generated that can be used to characterize the timescales of evapotranspiration response for the land surface model (LSM) component of GCMS. The technique is applied to the output of two multiyear simulations of a GCM, one using a Surface-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) scheme and the other a Bucket LSM. The derived response functions show that the Bucket LSM's response is significantly slower than that of the SVAT across the globe. The analysis also shows how the timescales of interception reservoir evaporation, bare soil evaporation, and vegetation transpiration differ within the SVAT LSM.

Scott, Russell↗

Modeling the Atmospheric Structure and Dynamics of the Martian Atmosphere

Models of the general circulation and climate system of Mars have reached a high level of maturity, but observations to validate them have lacked the kind of global and temporal coverage required. However, we are now on the verge of a new era in Mars exploration as Mars Global Surveyor, and the now enroute Mars Climate Orbiter, will provide daily global coverage of the atmosphere for two Mars years. In the coming years, data from these missions will test the predictions of general circulation models (GCM's) whose results have perhaps become too accepted as truth. This talk will review what GCM's tell us about Mars, what their weaknesses are, and what the latest results imply for their future. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Water Vapor Tacers as Diagnostics of the Regional Atmospheric Hydrologic Cycle

Understanding of the local and remote sources of water vapor can be a valuable diagnostic in understanding the regional atmospheric hydrologic cycle, especially in North America where moisture transport and local evaporation are important sources of water for precipitation. In the present study, we have implemented passive tracers as prognostic variables to follow water vapor evaporated in predetermined regions until the water tracer precipitates. All evaporative sources of water are accounted for by tracers, and the water vapor variable provides the validation of the tracer water and the formulation of the sources and sinks. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites General Circulation Model (GEOS GCM) is used to simulate several summer periods to determine the source regions of precipitation for the United States and India. Using this methodology, a detailed analysis of the recycling of water, interannual variability of the sources of water and links to the Great Plains low-level jet and North American monsoon will be presented. Potential uses in GCM sensitivity studies, predictability studies and data assimilation especially regarding the North American monsoon and GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) will be discussed.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Development and Validation of Water Vapor Tracers as Diagnostics for the Atmospheric Hydrologic Cycle

Understanding of the local and remote sources of water vapor can be a valuable diagnostic in understanding the regional atmospheric hydrologic cycle. In the present study, we have implemented passive tracers as prognostic variables to follow water vapor evaporated in predetermined regions until the water tracer precipitates. The formulation of the sources and sinks of tracer water is generally proportional to the prognostic water vapor variable. Because all water has been accounted for in tracers, the water vapor variable provides the validation of the tracer water and the formulation of the sources and sinks. The tracers have been implemented in a GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation consisting of several summer periods to determine the source regions of precipitation for the United States and India. The recycling of water and interannual variability of the sources of water will be examined. Potential uses in GCM sensitivity studies, predictability studies and data assimilation will be discussed.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and its Relation to Cloud Radiative Forcing using TRMM Products

By incorporating the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite orbital information into the geodesic version of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we are able to fly a satellite in the GCM, and sample the simulated atmosphere in the same way as the TRMM sensors sample the real atmosphere. The TRMM sampling statistics of precipitation and radiative fluxes at annual, intraseasonal, monthly-mean and composited diurnal time scales are evaluated by comparing the satellite-sampled against fully-sampled simulated atmospheres. This information provides a valuable guidance for efficient usage of TRMM data and future satellite mission planning.

Randall, David A.↗

Simulation Study of Effects of Solar Irradiance and Sea Surface Temperature on Monsoons and Global Circulation

A recent version of the GEOS 2 GCM was used to isolate the roles of the annual cycles of solar irradiation and/or sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) on the simulated circulation and rainfall. Four 4-year long integrations were generated with the GCM. The first integration, called Control Case, used daily-interpolated SSTs from a 30 year monthly SST climatology that was obtained from the analyzed SST-data, while the solar irradiation at the top of the atmosphere was calculated normally at hourly intervals. The next two cases prescribed the SSTs or the incoming solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere at their annual mean values, respectively while everything else was kept the same as in the Control Case. In this way the influence of the annual cycles of both external forcings was isolated.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Use of TRMM Data to Test an Improved Parameterization of Stratiform Precipitation

By incorporating the TRMM satellite orbital information into the most recent geodesic version of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we are able to fly a satellite in the GCM, and sample the simulated atmosphere in the same way as the TRMM sensors sample the real atmosphere. The TRMM sampling statistics of precipitation and radiative fluxes at annual, intra-seasonal, monthly-mean and composited diurnal time scales are evaluated by comparing the satellite-sampled against fully-sampled simulated atmospheres. This information provides a valuable guidance for efficient usage of TRMM data and future satellite mission planning. We have also evaluated the effects of TRMM sampling errors on the inferred tropical-mean hydrologic cycle and radiative fluxes. We have found that there are strong spurious oscillations associated with the TRMM orbital geometry, with periods of 23 days and 3-4 months, in tropical-mean daily and monthly precipitation. Caution must therefore be used when applying TRMM observations of tropical-mean precipitation to interpret climate variations at intraseasonal and interannual scales.

Randall, David A.↗

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz↗

Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms

Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗

Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

Strahan, Susan E.↗