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Results for “GAUSSIAN PROCESSES”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing soil water content variability across spatial scales from optimized high-resolution distributed temperature sensing technique

Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing, when combined with the Single-probe Heat-pulse technique can measure soil moisture (θ) across spatial scales. The key limitation of this system is in obtaining the relationship between soil thermal conductivity (λ) and θ for a specific field. Using the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, this study tested a new methodology to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship using a Gaussian processes model. The resulting accurate θ measurements (RMSE = 0.03 m 3 m –3 ) were used to characterize the spatial variability of θ across scales and to develop an empirical equation that can correct for the changes in the θ spatial variability observed at different spatial resolutions. In addition, the number of required samples to accurately characterize θ and its variability over scales ranging from 5 m and 350 m were estimated. Finally, these findings provide key information to scale soil moisture from centimeters to hundreds of meters for process understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of the number and locations of the calibration stations needed to monitor soil moisture using distributed temperature sensing systems: A proof-of-concept study

The single-probe heat-pulse (SPHP) technique combined with the Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) technology can offer novel high-resolution measurements of soil moisture (θ) over spatial scales ranging from several centimeters to several kilometers. However, the key limitation of this method is in obtaining the calibration relationship between θ and soil thermal conductivity (λ) across a specific field. In a previous study, a new methodology using a Gaussian processes model was presented to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship. The model aggregated θ measurements from soil moisture sensors scattered over the SPHP transect with the corresponding DTS λ measurements at their locations. In this study, a novel methodology is tested to optimize the number and locations of soil moisture sensors required to account for the spatial variability of the λ - θ relationship to achieve higher accuracy from the SPHP technique. The proposed methodology utilizes hierarchical clustering to analyze the information contained in the spatial structure of the SPHP measurements as the soil dries from a nearly-saturated condition. The proposed methodology was tested using data from a field in Oklahoma. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to validate the performance of the proposed methodology. The predictions obtained from the proposed methodology resulted in θ measurements accuracy comparable to those obtained from the 10% best Monte-Carlo iterations of randomly assigned soil moisture locations. Further, this study demonstrates that the proposed methodology is more efficient than the traditional practice of randomly spreading calibration soil moisture sensors along the SPHP transect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated simulation, machine learning, and experimental approach to characterizing fracture instability in indentation pillar-splitting of materials

Measuring fracture toughness of materials at small scales remains challenging due to limited experimental testing configurations. A recently developed indentation pillar-splitting method has shown promise of improved flexibility in fracture toughness measurements at the microscale, partly due to the occurrence of an unusual fracture instability, i.e., a transition from stable to unstable crack propagation. In spite of growing interest in this method, the underlying mechanism of this phenomenon is yet to be elucidated. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive description of fracture instability in indentation pillar-splitting by combining in situ experiments with high-fidelity simulations based on cohesive zone and J-integral methods. In addition, a machine-learning-based solution for predicting the critical indentation load of fracture instability is established through Gaussian processes regression for broad use of this method by the community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Glass Design Using Machine Learning Property Models with Prediction Uncertainties: Nuclear Waste Glass Formulation

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing the legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. The waste will be separately vitrified as low-activity waste and high-level waste fractions. Waste glass formulation algorithms have been traditionally developed using partial quadratic mixture property-composition models. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to predict glass properties and discover new glass materials for nuclear waste vitrification, and these advancements can be utilized to improve waste glass composition design. In this proof-of-principle study, ML algorithms such as Gaussian process regression (GPR) were used to interpolate glass properties (e.g., viscosity, electrical conductivity, chemical durability). After selecting appropriate sets of GPR hyper-parameters for each property, an optimization program was developed to formulate glass compositions to maximize waste loading while simultaneously satisfying property within constraints. The results of the ML-based waste loadings and glass compositions were compared to those obtained using the traditional methods. Comparing to the previous glass design framework, the ML-based optimization methods offer improved glass designs and a streamlined approach to generation of optimally designed data and near real-time updates.

glass formulation, machine learning, constraints, ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and Composition Dependence Modeling of Viscosity and Electrical Conductivity of Low-Activity Waste Glass Melts

The development of models that accurately relate the properties of a glass melt to its temperature and composition is important for glass formulation, melter control, and modeling the melt flow, refractory corrosion, and production rate. Using a database consisting of more than 4,000 data points measured between 900 °C and 1250 °C for over 600 unique low-activity waste glass compositions, we developed models for the melt viscosity and electrical conductivity. Models based on the Gaussian process regression approach outperformed models based on the Vogel–Fulcher–Tammann equation according to four standard metrics and yielded reliable prediction intervals. The models found primarily linear effects between properties and individual components, except for the effect of the Na 2 O mass fraction on the electrical conductivity. The effects were found to be consistent with current theories on physical processes involved with those properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning for the redox potential prediction of molecules in organic redox flow battery

Here, organic redox flow batteries (ORFB) are recognized as an innovative technology for the large-scale storage of renewable energy. The redox potential of organic redox-active molecules plays a vital role in their performance. Advanced screening techniques like high-throughput experiment and machine learning (ML) have significantly enhanced organic material performance and transformed the field of ORFB. However, the scarcity of experimental data poses a considerable challenge for ML model development in this domain. In our study, we developed lightweight graph-based Gaussian process regression (GPR) models with GPU-accelerated marginalized graph kernel and hybrid kernel to predict the redox potentials of organic redox-active molecules for ORFBs, specifically focusing on small datasets. To evaluate model accuracy, we created a new experimental database of organic redox-active molecules by the data from hundreds of published papers and assembled previous computational datasets. We also considered some key parameters, such as pH conditions and solvent type, to assess their impact on redox potential prediction. Our GPR model predicted redox potentials with high accuracy across all datasets using minimal training data. The study provides powerful tools for molecule screening and design and delivers valuable guidance on designing training datasets for costly experiments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel methodology for gamma-ray spectra dataset procurement over varying standoff distances and source activities

The adoption of machine learning approaches for gamma-ray spectroscopy has received considerable attention in the literature. Many studies have investigated the deployment of various algorithm architectures to a specific task. However, little attention has been afforded to the development of the datasets leveraged to train the models. Such training datasets typically span a set of environmental or detector parameters to encompass a problem space of interest to a user. Variations in these measurement parameters will also induce fluctuations in the detector response, including expected pile-up and ground scatter effects. Fundamental to this work is the understanding that 1) the underlying spectral shape varies as the measurement parameters change and 2) the statistical uncertainties associated with two spectra impact their level of similarity. While previous studies attribute some arbitrary discretization to the measurement parameters for the generation of their synthetic training data, this work introduces a principled methodology for efficient spectral-based discretization of a problem space. A signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) respective spectral comparison measure and a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model are used to predict the spectral similarity across a range of measurement parameters. This innovative approach effectively showcased its capability by dividing a problem space, ranging from 5 cm to 100 cm standoff distances and 5 μCi–100 μCi of 137 Cs, into three unique combinations of measurement parameters. The findings from this work will aid in creating more robust datasets, which incorporate many possible measurement scenarios, reduce the number of required experimental test set measurements, and possibly enable experimental training data collection for gamma-ray spectroscopy.

data science↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections from HADES proton flow data

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian Process emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate energies, we infer from the HADES proton flow data the posterior probability distribution functions of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section modification factor X with respect to free-space and the corresponding incompressibility K of nuclear matter as well as their correlation function. In conclusion, the mean value of X is found to be $X$ = $1.32_ {+0.28} ^ {-0.40} $ at 68% confidence level assuming the nuclear incompressibility K will not exceed 400 MeV, providing circumstantial evidence for enhanced baryon-braryon scattering cross sections in hot and dense nuclear matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

AI and extreme scale computing to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non-precessing black hole mergers

We use artificial intelligence (AI) to learn and infer the physics of higher order gravitational wave modes of quasi-circular, spinning, non precessing binary black hole mergers. We trained AI models using 14 million waveforms, produced with the surrogate model NRHybSur3dq8, that include modes up to $\ell$ ≤ 4 and (5,5), except for (4,0) and (4,1), that describe binaries with mass-ratios $\textit{q}$ ≤ 8, individual spins $s^z_{\{1,2\}} \in$[–0.8,0.8], and inclination angle $θ \in$ [0,π]. Our probabilistic AI surrogates can accurately constrain the mass-ratio, individual spins, effective spin, and inclination angle of numerical relativity waveforms that describe such signal manifold. We compared the predictions of our AI models with Gaussian process regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and linear regression, and with traditional Bayesian inference methods through the PyCBC Inference toolkit, finding that AI outperforms all these approaches in terms of accuracy, and are between three to four orders of magnitude faster than traditional Bayesian inference methods. Our AI surrogates were trained within 3.4 hours using distributed training on 1,536 NVIDIA V100 GPUs in the Summit supercomputer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting battery capacity from impedance at varying temperature and state of charge using machine learning

Prediction of battery health from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data can enable rapid measurement of battery state in real-world applications without using additional sensors or time-consuming performance measurements. However, deconvoluting the effect of capacity, state of charge, and temperature on EIS response is complicated analytically. Here, various machine-learning models, such as linear, Gaussian process, random forest, and artificial neural network regression, are utilized to predict capacity from EIS using hundreds of capacity, direct current (DC) resistance, and EIS measurements recorded under varying conditions of health, temperature, and state of charge (SOC). Several feature extraction and selection methods from traditional electrochemical analysis and statistical modeling are explored using machine-learning pipelines. EIS data from just two frequencies can accurately predict capacity, and interrogation shows that the optimal set of frequencies is not usually intuitive. Best results are achieved with an ensemble model, which predicts battery capacity with a mean absolute error of 1.9% on data from unobserved cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards fast and accurate predictions of radio frequency power deposition and current profile via data-driven modelling: applications to lower hybrid current drive

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modelling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of more than 16 000 GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of nine input parameters ( $n_{e0}$ , $T_{e0}$ , $I_p$ , $B_t$ , $R_0$ , $n_{\|}$ , $Z_{{\rm eff}}$ , $V_{{\rm loop}}$ and $P_{{\rm LHCD}}$ ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to $\sim$ ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coil optimization for quasi-helically symmetric stellarator configurations

Filament-based coil optimizations are performed for several quasi-helical stellarator configurations, beginning with the one from Landreman & Paul ( Phys. Rev. Lett. , vol. 128, 2022, 035001), demonstrating that precise quasi-helical symmetry can be achieved with realistic coils. Several constraints are placed on the shape and spacing of the coils, such as low curvature and sufficient plasma–coil distance for neutron shielding. The coils resulting from this optimization have a maximum curvature 0.8 times that of the coils of the Helically Symmetric eXperiment (HSX) and a mean squared curvature 0.4 times that of the HSX coils when scaled to the same plasma minor radius. When scaled up to reactor size and magnetic field strength, no fast particle losses were found in the free-boundary configuration when simulating 5000 alpha particles launched at $3.5\,\mathrm {MeV}$ on the flux surface with a normalized toroidal flux of $s=0.5$ . An analysis of the tolerance of the coils to manufacturing errors is performed using a Gaussian process model, and the coils are found to maintain low particle losses for smooth, large-scale errors up to amplitudes of approximately $0.15\,\mathrm {m}$ . Another coil optimization is performed for the Landreman–Paul configuration with the additional constraint that the coils are purely planar. Visual inspection of the Poincaré plot of the resulting magnetic field-lines reveal that the planar modular coils alone do a poor job of reproducing the target equilibrium. Additional non-planar coil optimizations are performed for the quasi-helical configuration with $5\,\%$ volume-averaged plasma beta from Landreman et al. ( Phys. Plasma , vol. 29, issue 8, 2022, 082501), and a similar configuration also optimized to satisfy the Mercier criterion. The finite beta configurations had larger fast-particle losses, with the free-boundary Mercier-optimized configuration performing the worst, losing approximately $5.5\,\%$ of alpha particles launched at $s=0.5$ .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Polymers for Extreme Conditions Designed Using Syntax-Directed Variational Autoencoders

We report the design/discovery of new materials is highly nontrivial owing to the near-infinite possibilities of material candidates and multiple required property/performance objectives. Thus, machine learning tools are now commonly employed to virtually screen material candidates with desired properties by learning a theoretical mapping from material-to-property space, referred to as the forward problem. However, this approach is inefficient and severely constrained by the candidates that the human imagination can conceive. Thus, in this work on polymers, we tackle the materials discovery challenge by solving the inverse problem: directly generating candidates that satisfy desired property/performance objectives. We utilize syntax-directed variational autoencoders (VAE) in tandem with Gaussian process regression (GPR) models to discover polymers expected to be robust under three extreme conditions: (1) high temperatures, (2) high electric field, and (3) high temperature and high electric field, useful for critical structural, electrical, and energy storage applications. This approach to learn from and augment) human ingenuity is general and can be extended to discover polymers with other targeted properties and performance measures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coarse-Grained Density Functional Theory Predictions via Deep Kernel Learning

Scalable electronic predictions are critical for soft materials design. Recently, the Electronic Coarse-Graining (ECG) method was introduced to renormalize all-atom quantum chemical (QC) predictions to coarse-grained (CG) resolutions using deep neural networks (DNNs). While DNNs can learn complex representations that prove challenging for kernel-based methods, they are susceptible to overfitting and the overconfidence of uncertainty estimations. Here, we develop ECG within a GPU-accelerated Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) framework to enable CG QC predictions using range-separated hybrid density functional theory (DFT), obtaining a 107 speedup relative to naive all-atom QC. By treating the predicted electronic properties as random Gaussian Processes, DKL incorporates CG mapping degeneracy by learning the distribution of electronic energies as a function of CG configuration. DKL-ECG accurately reproduces molecular orbital energies from range-separated DFT while facilitating efficient training via active learning using the uncertainties provided by DKL. Further, we show that while active learning algorithms enable efficient sampling of a more diverse configurational space relative to random sampling, all explored query methods exhibit comparable performance for the examined system. We attribute this result to the significant overlap of the feature space and output property distributions across multiple temperatures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct Deoxygenation of Phenol over Fe-Based Bimetallic Surfaces Using On-the-Fly Surrogate Models

We present an accelerated nudged elastic band (NEB) study of phenol direct deoxygenation (DDO) on Fe-based bimetallic surfaces using a recently developed Gaussian process regression (GPR) calculator. Our test calculations demonstrate that the GPR calculator achieves up to 3 times speedup compared to conventional density functional theory calculations while maintaining high accuracy, with energy barrier errors below 0.015 eV. Using GPR-NEB, we systematically examine the DDO mechanism on pure Fe(110) and surfaces modified with Co and Ni in both top and subsurface layers. Our results show that subsurface Co and Ni substitutions preserve favorable thermodynamics and kinetics for both C–O bond cleavage and C–H bond formation, comparable to those on the pure Fe(110) surface. In contrast, top-layer substitutions generally increase the C–O bond cleavage barrier, render the step endothermic, and result in significantly higher reverse reaction rates, making DDO unfavorable on these surfaces. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of GRR-accelerated transition state searches for complex surface reactions and provides insights into rational design of bimetallic catalysts for selective deoxygenation.

Aromatic compounds↗