Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Forecasting techniques”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Intercomparison of GOES-8 Imager and Sounder Land Surface Temperature Retrievals

Recent studies at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) have shown that the assimilation of land skin temperature (LST) tendencies into a mesoscale model can significantly improve short term forecasts of near surface temperature and moisture. The high spatial and temporal resolution of GOES derived land surface products provide valuable information about the spatial and temporal variability of the land surface forcing simulated in the model. In the GHCC studies LST was derived using a split window technique requiring at least two longwave infrared window channels and thus, utilized the 11 and 12 micron channels found on the GOES-8 Imager with a nadir spatial resolution of 4km. However, beginning with the launch of GOES-M (scheduled for mid 2001 ) and subsequent satellites the 12 micron channel will be removed from the Imager leaving only one longwave window channel. The GOES Sounder will continue to have more than one longwave infrared window channel (including a 12 micron channel) but, with a spatial resolution of 10 km nadir. LST retrievals from the newer GOES satellites will thus be derived from Sounder measurements at a reduced spatial resolution. This paper intercompares the LST retrievals from the GOES-8 Imager and Sounder. The effects on the LST retrievals due to the Sounder's reduced resolution from that of the Imager and its different longwave infrared channel characteristics are examined. The effects of transitioning from Imager to Sounder LST products on the results from model assimilation of these products are also examined.

Suggs, Ronnie J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at CCAFS/KSC and VAFB for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The legacy CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather tower wind instruments are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Mechanical and ultrasonic wind measuring techniques are known to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed as shown in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between the RSA ultrasonic and legacy mechanical sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Note that the instruments were sited outdoors under naturally varying conditions and that this comparison was not designed to verify either technology. Approximately 3 weeks of mechanical and ultrasonic wind data from each range from May and June 2005 were used in this study. The CCAFS/KSC data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the VAFB data were confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on five different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The ten towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The ultrasonic sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the mechanical sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with mechanical sensors were compared. The 1- minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, David A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's High-Resolution GEOS Forecasting and Reanalysis Products: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

NASA's GMAO produces high-resolution global forecasts for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric chemical composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km), freely available to the public. This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). GEOS-CF also assimilated satellite observations into the system for improved representation of weather and smoke. The assimilation system is currently being expanded to include chemically reactive trace gases. While the main focus of this new product is on tropospheric air quality information, the GEOS-Chem chemistry model used in this system includes the unified tropospheric stratospheric chemistry mechanism for improved forecasts of total column ozone during anomalous dynamical and chemical events. I will discuss current capabilities of the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to improve atmospheric composition modeling and possible future directions for GEOS-CF and reanalysis products. In addition, I will show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid-scale variability, which further improves model estimates at a given observation site.

Co-DAS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Orion Artemis I As Flown MMOD Analysis

Introduction The Lockheed Martin Orion spacecraft conducted the Artemis I flight around the Moon from November 16 through December 11, 2022. After the flight, an engineer from the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Group performed a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris MMOD analysis using the Bumper 3 risk assessment tool to predict the number of small impacts that would likely have occurred during the mission. Separately, a team from the same group inspected the Orion capsule for hypervelocity impact damage features. The results of the inspection were compared to those of the analysis to aid in improving the analysis, including the environment models. Scope of Work The spacecraft geometry model was created by Lockheed Martin during construction of the Artemis I Orion vehicle based on Computer Aided Design (CAD) models of the vehicle. New hypervelocity impact testing was performed to verify Ballistic Limit Equations (BLEs) used in the analysis to link impactor size and damage to the Thermal Protection System (TPS). The exact trajectory flown was recorded during the flight, including vehicle attitude. This data was used in conjunction with the ORDEM 3.2 and MEM 3 environment modeling tools to create models of particle flux impacting the spacecraft throughout the mission. Meteoroid shower forecast information was also included to account for additional particle flux associated with meteoroid showers. Inspection of the Orion capsule included the Backshell thermal tiles and the tape covering it, windows, fabric thermal materials, and small areas of other materials. Potential MMOD damage found was characterized using various techniques, including optical microscopy, computed tomography scanning, and X-ray spectroscopy. Findings The number of craters found in the Backshell tile, and their size distribution, matches well with the Bumper analysis prediction. Tape, window, and other material impacts recorded similarly align to Bumper analysis predictions. Conclusions and Recommendations This comparison of analysis with inspection of the hardware provides valuable insight into the MMOD environment and how accurately analysis tools assess the impact risk to spacecraft. As this was the first large, non-ablative returned surface from a lunar mission, this analysis extends the MMOD community’s insight beyond low Earth orbit into cis-lunar space.

MMOD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Orion Artemis I As Flown MMOD Analysis

Introduction The Lockheed Martin Orion spacecraft conducted the Artemis I flight around the Moon from November 16 through December 11, 2022. After the flight, an engineer from the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Group performed a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris MMOD analysis using the Bumper 3 risk assessment tool to predict the number of small impacts that would likely have occurred during the mission. Separately, a team from the same group inspected the Orion capsule for hypervelocity impact damage features. The results of the inspection were compared to those of the analysis to aid in improving the analysis, including the environment models. Scope of Work The spacecraft geometry model was created by Lockheed Martin during construction of the Artemis I Orion vehicle based on Computer Aided Design (CAD) models of the vehicle. New hypervelocity impact testing was performed to verify Ballistic Limit Equations (BLEs) used in the analysis to link impactor size and damage to the Thermal Protection System (TPS). The exact trajectory flown was recorded during the flight, including vehicle attitude. This data was used in conjunction with the ORDEM 3.2 and MEM 3 environment modeling tools to create models of particle flux impacting the spacecraft throughout the mission. Meteoroid shower forecast information was also included to account for additional particle flux associated with meteoroid showers. Inspection of the Orion capsule included the Backshell thermal tiles and the tape covering it, windows, fabric thermal materials, and small areas of other materials. Potential MMOD damage found was characterized using various techniques, including optical microscopy, computed tomography scanning, and X-ray spectroscopy. Findings The number of craters found in the Backshell tile, and their size distribution, matches well with the Bumper analysis prediction. Tape, window, and other material impacts recorded similarly align to Bumper analysis predictions. Conclusions and Recommendations This comparison of analysis with inspection of the hardware provides valuable insight into the MMOD environment and how accurately analysis tools assess the impact risk to spacecraft. As this was the first large, non-ablative returned surface from a lunar mission, this analysis extends the MMOD community’s insight beyond low Earth orbit into cis-lunar space.

MMOD↗
NASA NTRS1977

Wheat yield forecasts using Landsat data

Leaf area index and percentage of vegetative cover, two indices of crop yield developed from Landsat multispectral scanning data, are discussed. Studies demonstrate that the Landsat indicators may be as highly correlated with winter wheat yield as estimates based on traditional field sampling methods; in addition, the Landsat indicators may account for variations in individual field yield which are not explainable by meteorological data. A simple technique employing early-season Landsat data to make wheat yield predictions is also considered.

Colwell, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A proposed microburst nowcasting procedure using single-Doppler radar

Thirty-one microburst-producing storms from northweast Colorado were studied using single and multiple Doppler radar for the purpose of identifying radar signatures that indicated the development of a downdraft capable of producing a microburst. Descending reflectivity cores, increasing radial convergence within cloud, rotation, and reflectivity notches, were found to be microburst precursors, appearing typically 2-6 min prior to initial surface outflow. Three conceptual models have been drawn, based on the 31 events, to summarize the radar signatures of importance in low, moderate, and high-reflectivity microburst-producing storms. A forecaster-computer environment is proposed to allow the forecaster to readily view radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity information in both unprocessed and analyzed form. Use of multiimage radar displays and time-height profiles of quantitative radar estimates of reflectivity and radial shear are suggested to provide an environment where rapid progress can be made in developing techniques to nowcast microbursts.

Roberts, Rita D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

NASA's aircraft icing technology program

NASA' Aircraft Icing Technology program is aimed at developing innovative technologies for safe and efficient flight into forecasted icing. The program addresses the needs of all aircraft classes and supports both commercial and military applications. The program is guided by three key strategic objectives: (1) numerically simulate an aircraft's response to an in-flight icing encounter, (2) provide improved experimental icing simulation facilities and testing techniques, and (3) offer innovative approaches to ice protection. Our research focuses on topics that directly support stated industry needs, and we work closely with industry to assure a rapid and smooth transfer of technology. This paper presents selected results that illustrate progress towards the three strategic objectives, and it provides a comprehensive list of references on the NASA icing program.

Reinmann, John J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Research on diabatic initialization

The objective of this research is to contribute to the improvement of the analyses of irrotational wind and moisture fields in the tropics through advancement in the technique of initialization, incorporating diabatic effects and use of satellite-derived, radiometric imagery data that are not used currently by operational centers. Significant accomplishments during the period of May 1991 - April 1992 in research involving the following are presented: impact of tropical initialization upon the spin-up of precipitation forecasts; and a unified approach to diabatic initialization for improvement in the analysis of divergence and water vapor fields in the tropics. Focus of current research and plans for next year are discussed with respect to the topics of controlling the precipitation over shoot during the early part of a numerical forecast and the use of satellite imagery data for improvement of the tropical analysis.

Kashara, Akira↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Processing of Airspace Concept Evaluations Using FASTE-CNS as a Pre- or Post-Simulation CNS Analysis Tool

As NASA speculates on and explores the future of aviation, the technological and physical aspects of our environment increasing become hurdles that must be overcome for success. Research into methods for overcoming some of these selected hurdles have been purposed by several NASA research partners as concepts. The task of establishing a common evaluation environment was placed on NASA's Virtual Airspace Simulation Technologies (VAST) project (sub-project of VAMS), and they responded with the development of the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). As one examines the ACES environment from a communication, navigation or surveillance (CNS) perspective, the simulation parameters are built with assumed perfection in the transactions associated with CNS. To truly evaluate these concepts in a realistic sense, the contributions/effects of CNS must be part of the ACES. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has supported the Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation (VAMS) project through the continued development of CNS models and analysis capabilities which supports the ACES environment. NASA GRC initiated the development a communications traffic loading analysis tool, called the Future Aeronautical Sub-network Traffic Emulator for Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (FASTE-CNS), as part of this support. This tool allows for forecasting of communications load with the understanding that, there is no single, common source for loading models used to evaluate the existing and planned communications channels; and that, consensus and accuracy in the traffic load models is a very important input to the decisions being made on the acceptability of communication techniques used to fulfill the aeronautical requirements. Leveraging off the existing capabilities of the FASTE-CNS tool, GRC has called for FASTE-CNS to have the functionality to pre- and post-process the simulation runs of ACES to report on instances when traffic density, frequency congestion or aircraft spacing/distance violations have occurred. The integration of these functions require that the CNS models used to characterize these avionic system be of higher fidelity and better consistency then is present in FASTE-CNS system. This presentation will explore the capabilities of FASTE-CNS with renewed emphasis on the enhancements being added to perform these processing functions; the fidelity and reliability of CNS models necessary to make the enhancements work; and the benchmarking of FASTE-CNS results to improve confidence for the results of the new processing capabilities.

Mainger, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Comparison of Wind Speed Data from Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared the performance of mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at the Eastern Range (ER; Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on Florida's Atlantic coast) and the Western Range (WR; Vandenberg Air Force Base on California's Pacific coast). Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at the ER and WR for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The current ER and WR weather tower wind instruments are being changed from the current propeller-and-vane (ER) and cup-and-vane (WR) sensors to ultrasonic sensors through the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. The differences between mechanical and ultrasonic techniques have been found to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between RSA and current sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Approximately 3 weeks of Legacy and RSA wind data from each range were used in the study, archived during May and June 2005. The ER data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the WR data was confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on 5 different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The 10 towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The RSA sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the present sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with present sensors were compared. The 1-minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, D.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Quantifying the Importance of Selected Drought Indicators for the United States Drought Monitor

Using information theory, our study quantifies the importance of selected indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) maps. We use the technique of mutual information (MI) to measure the importance of any indicator to the USDM, and because MI is derived solely from the data, our findings are independent of any model structure (conceptual, physically-based, or empirical). We also compare these MIs against the drought representation effectiveness ratings in the North America Drought Indices and Indicators Assessment (NADIIA) survey for Koeppen climate zones. This reveals: [1] agreement between some ratings and our MI values (high for example indicators like Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index or SPEI); [2] some divergences (for example, soil moisture has high ratings but near-zero MIs for ESA-CCI soil moisture in the Western U.S., indicating the need of another remotely sensed soil moisture source); and [3] new insights into the importance of variables such as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) that are not included in sources like NADIIA. Further analysis of the MI results yields findings related to: [1] hydrological mechanisms (summertime SWE domination during individual drought events through snowmelt into the water-scarce soil); [2] hydroclimatic types (the top pair of inputs in the Western and non-Western regions are SPEIs and soil moistures respectively); and [3] predictability (high for the California 2012-2017 event, with longer-timescale indicators dominating). Finally, the high MIs between multiple indicators jointly and the USDM indicate potentially high drought forecasting accuracies achievable using only model-based inputs, and the potential for global drought monitoring using only remotely sensed inputs, especially for locations having insufficient in situ observations.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS1988

Minimum Energy Routing through Interactive Techniques (MERIT) modeling

The MERIT program is designed to demonstrate the feasibility of fuel savings by airlines through improved route selection using wind observations from their own fleet. After a discussion of weather and aircraft data, manually correcting wind fields, automatic corrections to wind fields, and short-range prediction models, it is concluded that improvements in wind information are possible if a system is developed for analyzing wind observations and correcting the forecasts made by the major models. One data handling system, McIDAS, can easily collect and display wind observations and model forecasts. Changing the wind forecasts beyond the time of the most recent observations is more difficult; an Australian Mesoscale Model was tested with promising but not definitive results.

Wylie, Donald P.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Raman Lidar Measurements during the International HZO Project: Instrumentation and Analysis Techniques, Popular Summary - 1

The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere helps to determine the likelihood that severe storms may develop. The concentration of water vapor, though, is highly variable in space and time. And yet small changes in water vapor concentration over a short period of time or over a short spatial distance can determine whether a storm may or may not develop. Therefore, in order to improve the ability to forecast severe weather such as thunderstorms it is important to measure water vapor in the atmosphere with high spatial and temporal resolution. One of the most attractive research tools for measuring water vapor in the atmosphere with high spatial and temporal resolution is a Raman lidar. A Raman lidar consists of a laser transmitter, a telescope receiver and optics and electronics for processing opticand electronic signals. A laser pulse is emitted into the atmosphere and it interacts with molecules in the atmosphere causing them to become excited and to emit, through the Raman process, photons of different wavelength than emitted by the laser. The molecule that emitted these emitted. This is the way that a Raman lidar identifies water vapor molecules in the atmosphere. can be identified based on the wavelength of the photons One of the great challenges in Raman lidar measurements has been to make useful daytime measurements of the water vapor profile under bright daytime conditions. In this first of two papers, we describe the instrumentation and analysis of the first documented Raman lidar that is able to measure water vapor in the daytime with sufficient quality to permit the study of developing storm systems.

Whiteman, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Status of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) after 2 Years in Orbit

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms, in related modeling applications and in new datasets tailored specifically for these applications. This paper reports the latest results regarding the calibration of the TRMM Microwave Imager, (TMI), Precipitation Radar (PR) and Visible and Infrared Sensor (VIRS). For the TMI, a new product is in place that corrects for a still unknown source of radiation leaking in to the TMI receiver. The PR calibration has been adjusted upward slightly (by 0.6 dBZ) to better match ground reference targets, while the VIRS calibration remains largely unchanged. In addition to the instrument calibration, great strides have been made with the rainfall algorithms as well, with the new rainfall products agreeing with each other to within less than 20% over monthly zonally averaged statistics. The TRMM Science Data and Information System (TSDIS) has responded equally well by making a number of new products, including real-time and fine resolution gridded rainfall fields available to the modeling community. The TRMM Ground Validation (GV) program is also responding with improved radar calibration techniques and rainfall algorithms to provide more accurate GV products which will be further enhanced with the new multiparameter 10 cm radar being developed for TRMM validation and precipitation studies. Progress in these various areas has, in turn, led to exciting new developments in the modeling area where Data Assimilation, and Weather Forecast models are showing dramatic improvements after the assimilation of observed rainfall fields.

Kummerow, C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

State of the Art in Large-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring

Soil moisture is an essential climate variable influencing land atmosphere interactions, an essential hydrologic variable impacting rainfall runoff processes, an essential ecological variable regulating net ecosystem exchange, and an essential agricultural variable constraining food security. Large-scale soil moisture monitoring has advanced in recent years creating opportunities to transform scientific understanding of soil moisture and related processes. These advances are being driven by researchers from a broad range of disciplines, but this complicates collaboration and communication. For some applications, the science required to utilize large-scale soil moisture data is poorly developed. In this review, we describe the state of the art in large-scale soil moisture monitoring and identify some critical needs for research to optimize the use of increasingly available soil moisture data. We review representative examples of 1) emerging in situ and proximal sensing techniques, 2) dedicated soil moisture remote sensing missions, 3) soil moisture monitoring networks, and 4) applications of large-scale soil moisture measurements. Significant near-term progress seems possible in the use of large-scale soil moisture data for drought monitoring. Assimilation of soil moisture data for meteorological or hydrologic forecasting also shows promise, but significant challenges related to model structures and model errors remain. Little progress has been made yet in the use of large-scale soil moisture observations within the context of ecological or agricultural modeling. Opportunities abound to advance the science and practice of large-scale soil moisture monitoring for the sake of improved Earth system monitoring, modeling, and forecasting.

Review↗
NASA NTRS1973

Application of remote sensing to hydrology

Streamflow forecasting and hydrologic modelling are considered in a feasibility assessment of using the data produced by remote observation from space and/or aircraft to reduce the time and expense normally involved in achieving the ability to predict the hydrological behavior of an ungaged watershed. Existing watershed models are described, and both stochastic and parametric techniques are discussed towards the selection of a suitable simulation model. Technical progress and applications are reported and recommendations are made for additional research.

Ambaruch, R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Intrusions into the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex during the winter of 1991-1992

Investigations of the kinematics of the lower stratospheric Arctic vortex during the winter of 1991-1992 using the contour advection with surgery technique reveal three distinct events in which there was substantial intrusion of midlatitude air into the vortex, in apparent contradiction of the view that the polar vortex constitutes an isolated air mass. Two of these events, in late January and mid-February, were well documented. They were predicted in high-resolution forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, most clearly in experimental forecasts with reduced diffusion. Direct confirmation of the presence of the intrusions and of their calculated locations was provided by aerosol observations from the airborne differential absorption laser lidar aboard the NASA DC-8, taken as part of the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition campaign; aerosol-rich air of midlatitude origin was seen in the expected position of the intrusions. The reality of the February event was also confirmed by in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2. Such events may be significant for the chemical processes taking place within the winter vortex. The intrusions were evidently related to the meteorology of the northern stratosphere during this winter and in particular to persistent tropospheric blocking over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and western Europe and concomitant ridging into the lower stratospheric vortex in this region. Nevertheless, preliminary investigations have indicated that such events are not uncommon in other northern hemisphere winters, although no such events were found in the southern hemisphere during the Antarctic winter of 1987.

Plumb, R. A.↗