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At least 451 records · Page 25

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Processes in Fractured Rocks: Some Past Scientific Highlights and Future Research Directions

Abstract Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rocks have been a topic of intense scientific research for more than 30 years. The present paper takes a look into the past and highlights some scientific advances which are of an unusual “out-of-the-box” nature, and then looks forward and discusses possible directions of future research in this interesting field of study. Concerning future research directions, we see a trend from a focus on coupled THM processes in single fractures or a few interacting fractures, to the study of coupled THM behavior in complex fracture network systems where the fractures act collectively giving rise to local stress concentration points and points of large pressure gradients. Three examples of future research directions are presented. First is an effort towards identifying characterizing parameters of a fracture network that play a direct controlling role in major coupled THM phenomena (such as induced seismicity and flow channeling), rather than parameters of stochastic distributions of fractures in the network. The second example of research direction is accounting for the heterogeneity and hierarchy of fractures in a fault or fracture zone which has been associated with major THM events in a number of geo-energy projects. The third example is at the opposite end of the first; here it is recognized that in some cases, the coupled THM processes in fractured rocks may be controlled dominantly by only a few key bridges. Identification, characterization, and evaluation of these key bridges should be one of the important research directions in the coming days.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm –2 , corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

Jones, Andrew D.↗

Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in property damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future hurricane storm surge risk for the U.S. gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August–October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8–4.2 % and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7–5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service’s SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.

Climate change↗

Nano-enhanced solid-state hydrogen storage: Balancing discovery and pragmatism for future energy solutions

Nanomaterials have revolutionized the battery industry by enhancing energy storage capacities and charging speeds, and their application in hydrogen (H 2 ) storage likewise holds strong potential, though with distinct challenges and mechanisms. H 2 is a crucial future zero-carbon energy vector given its high gravimetric energy density, which far exceeds that of liquid hydrocarbons. However, its low volumetric energy density in gaseous form currently requires storage under high pressure or at low temperature. This review critically examines the current and prospective landscapes of solid-state H 2 storage technologies, with a focus on pragmatic integration of advanced materials such as metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), magnesium-based hybrids, and novel sorbents into future energy networks. These materials, enhanced by nanotechnology, could significantly improve the efficiency and capacity of H 2 storage systems by optimizing H 2 adsorption at the nanoscale and improving the kinetics of H 2 uptake and release. We discuss various H 2 storage mechanisms—physisorption, chemisorption, and the Kubas interaction—analyzing their impact on the energy efficiency and scalability of storage solutions. The review also addresses the potential of “smart MOFs”, single-atom catalyst-doped metal hydrides, MXenes and entropy-driven alloys to enhance the performance and broaden the application range of H 2 storage systems, stressing the need for innovative materials and system integration to satisfy future energy demands. High-throughput screening, combined with machine learning algorithms, is noted as a promising approach to identify patterns and predict the behavior of novel materials under various conditions, significantly reducing the time and cost associated with experimental trials. In closing, we discuss the increasing involvement of various companies in solid-state H 2 storage, particularly in prototype vehicles, from a techno-economic perspective. In conclusion, this forward-looking perspective underscores the necessity for ongoing material innovation and system optimization to meet the stringent energy demands and ambitious sustainability targets increasingly in demand.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Fundamental physics opportunities with future ground-based mm/sub-mm VLBI arrays

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration recently published the first images of the supermassive black holes in the cores of the Messier 87 and Milky Way galaxies. These observations have provided a new means to study supermassive black holes and probe physical processes occurring in the strong-field regime. We review the prospects of future observations and theoretical studies of supermassive black hole systems. Current ground-based very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) arrays like the EHT and proposed future extensions like the next-generation Event Horizon Telescope will greatly enhance the capabilities of black-hole imaging interferometry. These enhancements will open up several previously inaccessible avenues of investigation, thereby providing important new insights into the properties of supermassive black holes and their environments. This review describes the current state of knowledge for five key science cases, summarising the unique challenges and opportunities for fundamental physics investigations that future mm/sub-mm VLBI developments will enable.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Constraints on Future Analysis Metadata Systems in High Energy Physics

In high energy physics (HEP), analysis metadata comes in many forms—from theoretical cross-sections, to calibration corrections, to details about file processing. Correctly applying metadata is a crucial and often time-consuming step in an analysis, but designing analysis metadata systems has historically received little direct attention. Among other considerations, an ideal metadata tool should be easy to use by new analysers, should scale to large data volumes and diverse processing paradigms, and should enable future analysis reinterpretation. This document, which is the product of community discussions organised by the HEP Software Foundation, categorises types of metadata by scope and format and gives examples of current metadata solutions. Important design considerations for metadata systems, including sociological factors, analysis preservation efforts, and technical factors, are discussed. A list of best practices and technical requirements for future analysis metadata systems is presented. These best practices could guide the development of a future cross-experimental effort for analysis metadata tools.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent and future developments in pultrusion technology with consideration for curved geometries: A review

Herein this paper examined the current state and future developments in pultrusion with particular emphasis on its application in curved part manufacturing. The relationship between factors such as resin chemistry, fiber characteristics, and die geometry that influences the properties of pultruded product were highlighted. Moreover, the specific challenges associated with pultruding curved parts such as the complexities in achieving uniformity and structural integrity in such geometries were discussed. The review emphasized mold design, process improvement, adaptive control systems for precise resin impregnation and material selection to address these challenges. Additionally, the paper suggests the integration of real-time monitoring and data analytics as ways to enhance quality control during curved parts pultrusion. These advancements will help to overcome challenges specific to curved pultrusion and make the process more efficient. Other manufacturing techniques such as filament winding, thermoforming, pulforming were mentioned as alternatives to curved parts pultrusion. The review also explores pultruded variable curvature processes, highlighting some notable patents and article related to this subject matter. Production of pultruded variable curvature parts was seen as a key driver that can shape the future of pultrusion. Finally, the paper anticipates future trends, with sustainability, customization, integration of advanced materials, and development of techniques for pultrusion of composites parts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of the inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.

Yang, Zhaoqing↗

Futures for electrochromic windows on high performance houses in arid, cold climates

This study investigates high performance electrochromic windows used on a passive house and residential dwelling to IECC 2021 (i.e., IECC dwelling). In the lab, the electrochromic film switches transmitted solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) from 0.09 to 0.7 and visible transmittance from 0.15 to 0.82 with power consumption of 1.23 W/m 2 during switching times less than 3 minutes. We extrapolate these results to a window assembly. Building energy models of the houses were evaluated in Santa Fe, New Mexico. A Monte Carlo analysis for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 was conducted for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Cases with and without the electrochromic windows and with and without electricity were used to determine energy use intensity and hours beyond thermal safety thresholds. The passive house showed 1.3-3.1% mean energy savings and the IECC dwelling 4.4-5.1% with electrochromic efficiency benefits growing into the future for both cases. Even so, overall savings decrease into the future for the passive house, due to growth in cooling load being dominant, conversely overall energy savings increase into the future for the IECC dwelling due to heating loads being dominant. For thermal resilience, the passive house exhibited a mean percent decrease of 0.02-0.31% hours in the extreme caution (i.e., > 32.2 °C, ≤ 39.4 °C) range while the IECC dwelling exhibited 0.38-4.38%. The study therefore shows that electrochromic windows will have smaller benefits for the passive house in comparison to the IECC dwelling. The relationship between electrochromic windows is shown to have a complex relationship between house efficiency and climate change by these results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Decomposing the Impact of Alternative Technology Sets on Future Carbon Emissions Growth

What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions’ GDP; (4) changes in sectors’ energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

Fisher-Vanden, Karen↗

Current Status and Recommendations for the Future of Research, Teaching, and Testing in the Biological Sciences of Radiation Oncology: Report of the American Society for Radiation Oncology Cancer Biology/Radiation Biology Task Force, Executive Summary

In early 2011, a dialogue was initiated within the Board of Directors (BOD) of the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) regarding the future of the basic sciences of the specialty, primarily focused on the current state and potential future direction of basic research within radiation oncology. After consideration of the complexity of the issues involved and the precise nature of the undertaking, in August 2011, the BOD empanelled a Cancer Biology/Radiation Biology Task Force (TF). The TF was charged with developing an accurate snapshot of the current state of basic (preclinical) research in radiation oncology from the perspective of relevance to the modern clinical practice of radiation oncology as well as the education of our trainees and attending physicians in the biological sciences. The TF was further charged with making suggestions as to critical areas of biological basic research investigation that might be most likely to maintain and build further the scientific foundation and vitality of radiation oncology as an independent and vibrant medical specialty. It was not within the scope of service of the TF to consider the quality of ongoing research efforts within the broader radiation oncology space, to presume to consider their future potential, or to discourage in any way the investigators committed to areas of interest other than those targeted. The TF charge specifically precluded consideration of research issues related to technology, physics, or clinical investigations. This document represents an Executive Summary of the Task Force report.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Predicting future well performance for environmental remediation design using deep learning

Here in this study, we developed a deep learning (DL) framework with a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) to predict well performance and thereby assist future environmental remediation design. Such prediction of extraction well performance at designated locations is critical for configuring pump-and-treat (P&T) well network design and operation, setting reasonable target closure dates for overall remedying, and estimating remedy costs. The framework is developed with operational and monitoring data routinely collected during P&T remedy operations, including well extraction and injection rates as well as in situ contaminant concentrations. Traditionally, the collected data were rarely used for purposes other than assessing past well performance and the accuracy of the conceptual site model. However, recent advances in data-driven computational approaches enable better use of the large datasets to inform future well performance, enhance site characterization, and improve remediation planning. In this study, we established a DL framework to integrate transient three-dimensional contaminant plumes and multiple aquifer properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and hydrostratigraphic maps) to identify characteristic patterns controlling and representing extraction well mass recovery, aiming at providing future mass recovery estimates for existing wells and candidate wells at any proposed locations. We evaluated our framework by using a realistic synthetic dataset generated from a well-calibrated flow and transport model used in the 200 West Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The multi-channel feature in our framework allows integration of various types and temporal densities of training datasets for DL model development. Overall, we found that the trained DL model achieved an accuracy of over 90% in ranking extraction well performance in validation datasets, and over 80% in predicting high-performance-ranking well locations. This data-informed approach provides a flexible tool to support adaptive site management, streamline decision-making, and potentially reduce remediation time and costs. Our DL framework can be used as a filtering tool to improve the current P&T network optimization design by reducing the number of candidate well locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A muon–ion collider at BNL: The future QCD frontier and path to a new energy frontier of μ + μ – colliders

In this work, we propose the development and construction of a novel muon–ion collider (MuIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) in the USA as an upgrade to succeed the electron–ion collider (EIC) that is scheduled to commence in the early 2030s, by a joint effort of the nuclear and particle physics communities. The BNL facility could accommodate a muon storage beam with an energy up to about 1 TeV with existing magnet technology. When collided with a 275 GeV hadron beam, the MuIC center-of-mass energy of about 1 TeV will extend the kinematic coverage of deep inelastic scattering physics at the EIC (with polarized beams) by more than an order of magnitude in Q 2 and x, opening a new QCD frontier to address many fundamental scientific questions in nuclear and particle physics. This coverage is comparable to that of the proposed Large Hadron–Electron Collider (LHeC) at CERN, but with complementary lepton and hadron kinematics, ion species, and beam polarization. Additionally, the development of a MuIC at BNL will focus the worldwide R&D efforts on muon collider technology and serve as a demonstrator toward a future muon–antimuon collider at O(10) TeV energy, which is an attractive option to reach the next high energy frontier in particle physics at an affordable cost and a smaller footprint than a future circular hadron collider. We discuss here the possible design parameters of the MuIC, kinematic coverage, science cases, and detector design considerations including resolution estimates on DIS kinematic variables. A possible road map toward the future MuIC and muon–antimuon colliders is also presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Projecting Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts of Corn Production in the U.S. Midwest under Future Climate Scenarios using machine learning approach

Emission factors and process-based mechanism models are popular approaches used to estimate life-cycle environmental impacts. However, emission factors are often incapable of describing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural emissions, whereas process-based mechanism models, capable of capturing the heterogeneity, tend to be very complicated, and time-consuming. Efficient predictions of life-cycle environmental impacts from agricultural production are lacking. This study develops a rapid predictive model to quantify life-cycle global warming (GW), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts of corn production using a novel machine learning approach. We used the boosted regression tree (BRT) model to estimate current and future life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in 12 U.S. Midwest at county scale under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s climate scenarios (RCP2.6. 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for years 2009-2100. Results show that future life-cycle GW, EU and AD impacts of corn production will increase under all four scenarios, with the worst environmental impacts shown under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Significant spatial variation were estimated to be 3.6, 29.9 and 1.8-folds under the RCP4.5 scenario, and 6.6, 152.9 and 1.6-folds under the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Findings from this study demonstrate the importance of considering county-level life-cycle environmental impacts and the influences of climate change in future years to aid in developing potential adaptation and mitigation programs and policies.

Machine learning, climate change, projections, env↗