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DOE OSTI2022

Technical note: Modeling spatial fields of extreme precipitation – a hierarchical Bayesian approach

Abstract. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for the spatial distribution of rainfall corresponding to an extreme event of a specified duration that could be used with regional hydrologic models to perform a regional hydrologic risk analysis. An extreme event is defined if any gaging site in the watershed experiences an annual maximum rainfall event and the spatial field of rainfall at all sites corresponding to that occurrence is modeled. Applications to data from New York City demonstrate the effectiveness of the model for providing spatial scenarios that could be used for simulating loadings into the urban drainage system. Insights as to the homogeneity in spatial rainfall and its implications for modeling are provided by considering partial pooling in the hierarchical Bayesian framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads in extreme idling conditions

Abstract. Floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) systems are subject to complex environmental loads, with significant potential for damage in extreme storm conditions. Design simulations in these conditions are required to assess the survivability of the device with some level of confidence. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic engineering tools can be used with a reasonable balance of accuracy and computational efficiency. The models require many input parameters to describe the air and water conditions, the system properties, and the load calculations. Each of these parameters has some possible range, due to either statistical uncertainty or variations with time. Variation in the input parameters can have important effects on the uncertainty in the resulting loads, but it is not practical to perform detailed assessments of the impact of this uncertainty for every input parameter. This work demonstrates a method to identify the input parameters that have the most impact on the loads to focus further inspection. The process is done specifically for extreme storm load cases defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission design requirements for floating offshore wind turbines. The analysis was performed using the International Energy Agency Wind 15 MW offshore reference wind turbine atop the University of Maine VolturnUS-S reference platform in two US offshore wind regions, the Gulf of Maine and Humboldt Bay. It was found that the direction of incident waves and current, yaw misalignment, and the length of mooring line sections were among the primary sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data release for A search for extremely-high-energy neutrinos and first constraints on the ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray proton fraction with IceCube

<h1 id="summary">Summary</h1> <p>Title: Data Release for A search for extremely-high-energy neutrinos and first constraints on the ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray proton fraction with IceCube</p> <p>The IceCube observatory analyzed 12.6 years of data in search of extremely-high-energy (EHE) neutrinos above 5 PeV. The resultant limit of the search (Fig 1), and the effective area of the event selection (Fig 7), are provided in this data release.</p> <h1 id="contents">Contents</h1> <ul> <li><p>README file: this file</p> </li> <li><p><code>differential_limit_and_sensitivity.csv</code>: a comma separated value file, giving the observed experimental differential limit, and sensitivity, of the search as a function of neutrino energy. This is the content of Fig 1 in the paper. The first column is the neutrino energy in GeV. The second column is the limit in units of GeV/cm2/s/sr. The third column is the sensitivity in units of GeV/cm2/s/sr.</p> </li> <li><p><code>effective_area.csv</code>: a comma separated value file, giving the effective area of the search as a function of energy. This is the content of Fig 7 in the paper. The first column is the neutrino energy in GeV. The second column is the total effective area of the search, summed across neutrino flavors, and averaged across neutrinos and antineutrinos, in meters-squared. The third column is the effective area of the search for the average of electron neutrino and electron antineutrinos in units of meters-squared. The fourth column is the same as the third, but for muon-flavor neutrinos. The fifth column is the same as the third and fourth, but for tau-flavor neutrinos.</p> </li> <li><p><code>demo.py</code>: a short python script to demonstrate how to read the files. Run like <code>python demo.py</code>. A standard base python installation is sufficient, as the only dependencies are numpy and matplotlib.</p> </li> </ul> <h1 id="contacts">Contacts</h1> <p>For any questions about this data release, please write to analysis@icecube.wisc.edu</p>

Astronomy and Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Extending the Publish/Subscribe Abstraction for High-Performance I/O and Data Management at Extreme Scale

The Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) represents the culmination of substantial investment in Scientific Data Management, and it has demonstrated success for several important extreme-scale science cases. However, looking towards the exascale and beyond, we see the development of yet more stringent data management requirements that require new abstractions. Therefore, there is an opportunity to attempt to connect the traditional realms of HPC I/O optimization with the Database / Data Management community. As such, in this paper we offer some specific examples from our ongoing work in managing data structures, services, and performance at the extreme scale for scientific computing. Using the publish/subscribe model afforded by ADIOS, we demonstrate a set of services that connect data format, metadata, queries, data reduction, and high-performance delivery. The resulting publish/subscribe framework facilitates connection to on-line workflow systems to enable the dynamic capabilities that will be required for exascale science.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Assessment Framework For Electric Distribution Systems Performance Under Extreme Conditions

The devastating impact of extreme weather-related events is increasingly evident on power grids, especially on distribution grids. The severity of their potential impact calls for 1) developing a suitable resilience assessment framework to capture the system performance and 2) assessing relevant mitigative strategies to lessen the impact of such events. This paper proposes a framework to identify grid vulnerabilities using the energy-at-risk concept to select, disconnect and isolate grid portions due to a resilience event. The proposed framework mainly consists of two steps; i) processing the utility's available infrastructure, i.e., a network model, possible switching combinations, and outage information for those combinations, as a graph-based database, and ii) implementing a novel optimal switching algorithm leveraging database and grid simulated metrics. These switching actions are generated to implement load curtailment in a rolling manner during anticipated grid scarcity conditions. In this study, a test case is created using two taxonomy feeders and is simulated against an extreme temperature event, e.g., a long, relatively cold, and prolonged freeze peak, thereby creating stress on the grid. It is demonstrated that the proposed framework allows utilities to predict the energy-at-risk during such resilience events and design suitable outage management strategies.

Poudel, Shiva↗

DOE OSTI2023

Topological Guided Detection of Extreme Wind Phenomena: Implications for Wind Energy: Preprint

Extreme wind phenomena play a crucial role in the efficient operation of wind farms for renewable energy generation. However, existing detection methods are computationally expensive, limited to specific coordinate. In real-world scenarios, understanding the occurrence of these phenomena over a large area is essential. Therefore, there is a significant demand for a fast and accurate approach to forecast such events. In this paper, we propose a novel method for detecting wind phenomena using topological analysis, leveraging the gradient of wind speed or critical points in a topological framework. By extracting topological features from the wind speed profile within a defined region, we employ topological distance to identify extreme wind phenomena. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing topological features derived from regional wind speed profiles. We validate our approach using high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) over a month in the US East Coast.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Chemodynamical Census of the Milky Way's Ultra-Faint Compact Satellites. I. A First Population-Level Look at the Internal Kinematics and Metallicities of 19 Extremely-Low-Mass Halo Stellar Systems

Deep, wide-area photometric surveys have uncovered a population of compact ($r_{1/2} \approx$ 1-15 pc), extremely-low-mass ($M_* \approx$ 20-4000 $M_{\odot}$) stellar systems in the Milky Way halo that are smaller in size than known ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) and substantially fainter than most classical globular clusters (GCs). Very little is known about the nature and origins of this population of "Ultra-Faint Compact Satellites" (UFCSs) owing to a dearth of spectroscopic measurements. Here, we present the first spectroscopic census of these compact systems based on Magellan/IMACS and Keck/DEIMOS observations of 19 individual UFCSs, representing $\sim$2/3 of the known population. We securely measure mean radial velocities for all 19 systems, velocity dispersions for 15 (predominantly upper limits), metallicities for 17, metallicity dispersions for 8, and $\textit{Gaia}$-based mean proper motions for 18. This large new spectroscopic sample provides the first insights into population-level trends for these extreme satellites. We demonstrate that: (1) the UFCSs are kinematically colder, on average, than the UFDs, disfavoring very dense dark matter halos in most cases, (2) the UFCS population is chemically diverse, spanning a factor of $\sim$300 in mean iron abundance ($\rm -3.3 \lesssim [Fe/H] \lesssim -0.8$), with multiple systems falling beneath the "metallicity floor" proposed for GCs, and (3) while some higher-metallicity and/or younger UFCSs are clearly star clusters, the dynamical and/or chemical evidence allows the possibility that up to $\sim$50% of the UFCSs in our sample (9 of 19) may represent the smallest and least-massive galaxies yet discovered.

Cerny, William [Yale U.] (ORCID:0000000316977062)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ultrahigh Performance Metallic Turbine Blades for Extreme Environments

In ULTIMATE Phase-I, The Boeing Company and Alloyed Inc. aimed to produce ultrahigh performance metallic extreme environment turbine blades with a base blade alloy capable of inert operation at 1300C, and a maximum coated blade operating temperature up to 1800C. High-performance structural designs for extreme service conditions place additional demands on the present material capability and can potentially outpace the current state-of-the-art in the alloy design space and metal processing. As a part of exploration and adoption of novel concepts for material maturation, the team explored a series of capable base novel refractory complex concentrated alloy (RCCA) compositions and potential powder enhancements. Advanced manufacturing processes, with a focus on laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (AM) and powder metallurgy (PM) approaches, were applied to consolidate new alloys and for near net shape processing of blades from the base RCCA.

Yousefiani, Ali↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extreme fast charge aging: Effect of electrode loading and NMC composition on inhomogeneous degradation in graphite bulk and electrode/electrolyte interface

Empowering extreme fast charging (XFC) requires a comprehensive understanding of its application with advanced anode and cathode materials in lithium-ion batteries. No report exists for the full extent of limitations for the anode with crosstalk effect from paired cathode as well as Li plating due to electrode loading under XFC. In this study, a combination of cell testing and multiple length characterization is used to investigate XFC aging mechanism in cells with a low loading of 1.5 mAh cm -2 and high loading of 2.5 mAh cm -2 for graphite (Gr)/Ni-rich LiNi x Mn y Co 1-x-y O 2 (NMCs). Operando XRD mappings show 1.5 mAh cm -2 loadings result in higher strain in graphite for all three cathode types. Among the three NMC cathodes, the graphite from NMC532 and NMC811 cells show comparable strain. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images show distinct differences between 6-C-charged anodes in two loadings. Significantly increased electrode thickness can be seen due to more damage in the graphite bulk and accumulation of the electrolyte decomposition products in electrode pores. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) reveals both cathode chemistry and Li plating influence the non-uniform SEI composition on graphite surface. We report higher Ni content in NMC811 promotes the higher levels of salt decomposition on the SEI and formation of higher mass of electrolyte aging products.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using In Situ High-Energy X-ray Diffraction to Quantify Electrode Behavior of Li-Ion Batteries from Extreme Fast Charging

Extreme fast charging (XFC, =15 min charging time) of Li-ion batteries (LIBs) has been proposed as an immediate target to increase the commercial appeal of electric vehicles. However, XFC of LIBs is associated with the degradation of battery performance and safety concerns. Quantitative and simultaneous characterization of various components during cell degradation represents a major experimental challenge. In this work, we outline a methodology for the use of spatially resolved, high-energy X-ray diffraction as a quantitative, in situ method of mapping the degradation of LIBs. We use this approach to study the battery cell capacity loss, both locally (mm scale) and globally over the entire cell (cm scale). Specifically, our workflow allows us to quantify the total amount of plated Li on the anode, as well as its spatial correlation to the structural properties of the anode and cathode. The method complements existing optical methods to resolve the spatial heterogeneity of local degradation mechanisms such as Li plating and provides simultaneous insights into concomitant anode state-of-charge variability. We apply it to commercially relevant single-layer pouch cells with the graphite anode and the LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 cathode. Our results show that Li plating occurs heterogeneously on the graphite anode and that it is spatially correlated to the extent of anode lithiation. In this work, we anticipate that the described workflow will allow for understanding multiscale degradation in energy-storage devices beyond LIBs, where quantitative analysis at a local and global length scale can be performed without the necessity to tear down the device, due to the applicability of high-energy X-rays to probe in situ degradation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator application to heat waves: Ko’olauloa community resilience hub

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency. The Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator (MEWS) models this using historical data, climate model outputs, and heat wave multipliers. In this study, MEWS is applied for planning of a community resilience hub in Hau'ula, Hawaii. The hub will have normal operations and resilience operations modes. Both these modes were modeled using EnergyPlus. The resilience operations mode includes cutting off air conditioning for many spaces to decrease power requirements during emergencies. Results were simulated for 300 future weather files generated by MEWS for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080. Shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were used. The resilience operations mode results show two to six times increase of hours of exceedance beyond 32.2 °C from present conditions, depending on climate scenario and future year. The resulting decrease in thermal resilience enables an average decrease of energy use intensity of 26% with little sensitivity to climate change. The decreased thermal resilience predicted in the future is undesirable, but was not severe enough to require a more energy-intensive resilience mode. Instead, planning is needed to assure vulnerable individuals are given prioritized access to air-conditioned parts of the hub if worst-case heat waves occur.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-precision monitoring of outgassing species in model extreme ultraviolet photoresists with a cavity ring-down spectrometer

Background Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photoresists play a pivotal role in advancing nanopatterning technologies by balancing image quality and sensitivity. The outgassing behavior of photoresist thin films under EUV and deep ultraviolet (DUV) exposure reveals chemical details relevant to their performance. Aim Here, we focus on utilizing an analytical technique not previously used in photolithography, the tabletop cavity ring-down spectrometer, to investigate outgassing dynamics in EUV photoresists, enabling precise chemical identification and deeper insights into resist processing. Approach The spectrometer’s enhanced laser path length (∼ 20 km) and broadband absorption capabilities in the C–H overtone region allow for sensitive and temporally resolved detection of mixtures of outgassed species. Using a model resist comprising a polymer matrix with a photoacid generator and quencher, we analyzed the influence of time delays between exposure and post-exposure bake (PEB) as well as storage under varying environmental conditions. Results Suppression of isobutylene outgassing and thickness loss was observed with extended delays between exposure and PEB, potentially linked to water absorption and acid deactivation. The technique proved highly effective in distinguishing subtle chemical differences between processing stages. Conclusions Delay times and their environmental conditions, particularly humidity, reduce outgassing and thickness loss of photoresists during PEB, suggesting decreased acid-driven deprotection. This can potentially impact sensitivity, defectivity, and roughness of resist patterns, necessitating precise monitoring and control.

Extreme ultraviolet photoresists↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiation‐Resistant Aluminum Alloy for Space Missions in the Extreme Environment of the Solar System

Future human exploration of the solar system demands advanced materials capable of withstanding extreme environments, particularly exposure to solar energetic particle radiation. Current material selection criteria for space applications prioritize a high strength-to-weight ratio, high corrosion resistance and manufacturability, favoring age-hardenable Al-based alloys. However, conventional precipitation-hardened Al alloys suffer from irradiation-assisted dissolution of strengthening phases at doses as low as 0.2 displacements-per-atom (dpa), undermining their performance. Furthermore, these alloys develop radiation-induced defects, such as dislocation loops and voids, even at low doses. This study presents a novel ultrafine-grained (UFG) Al-based alloy, designed using the crossover alloying concept and strengthened by T-phase precipitates, featuring a chemically-complex structure with 162 atoms in its unit cell composed of Mg 32 (Zn,Al) 49 . It is showed that T-phase precipitates have exceptional radiation tolerance up to 24 dpa. Owing to the nanoscale UFG structure, dislocation loops are suppressed, and voids are only observed beyond 75 dpa. Microtensile tests up to 20 dpa confirm the preservation of mechanical performance under irradiation. The results underline the potential of this alloy as a radiation-resistant, lightweight material for future space applications. Three key strategies enable this performance: (i) stabilization of a UFG microstructure, (ii) T-phase precipitation featuring a highly negative Gibbs free energy and chemically-complex giant unit cell, and (iii) precise process control to prevent grain growth during heat treatment and irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Novel High‐Performance Electrolyte for Extreme Fast Charging in Pilot Scale Lithium‐Ion Pouch Cells

Realizing extreme fast charging (XFC) in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles is still challenging due to the insufficient lithium-ion transport kinetics, especially in the electrolyte. Herein, a novel high-performance electrolyte (HPE) consisting of lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide (LiFSI), lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF 6 ) and carbonates is proposed and tested in pilot-scale, 2-Ah pouch cells. Moreover, the origin of improved electrochemical performance is comprehensively studied via various characterizations, suggesting that the proposed HPE exhibits high ionic conductivity and excellent electrochemical stability at high charging rate of 6-C. Furthermore, the HPE-based pouch cells deliver improved discharge specific capacity and excellent long-term cyclability up to 1500 cycles under XFC conditions, which is superior to the conventional state-of-the-art baseline electrolyte.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sizing battery energy storage and PV system in an extreme fast charging station considering uncertainties and battery degradation

In this paper, we present mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulations to obtain optimal sizing for a battery energy storage system (BESS) and solar generation system in an extreme fast charging station (XFCS) to reduce the annualized total cost. The proposed model characterizes a typical year with eight representative scenarios and obtains the optimal energy management for the station and BESS operation to exploit the energy arbitrage for each scenario. Contrasting extant literature, this paper proposes a constant power constant voltage (CPCV) based improved probabilistic approach to model the XFCS charging demand for weekdays and weekends. This paper also accounts for the monthly and annual demand charges based on realistic utility tariffs. Furthermore, BESS life degradation is considered in the model to ensure no replacement is needed during the considered planning horizon. Different from the literature, this paper offers pragmatic MILP formulations to tally BESS charge/discharge cycles using the cumulative charge/discharge energy concept. McCormick relaxations and the Big-M method are utilized to relax the bi-linear terms in the BESS operational constraints. Finally, a robust optimization-based MILP model is proposed and leveraged to account for uncertainties in electricity price, solar generation, and XFCS demand. Case studies were performed to signify the efficacy of the proposed formulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Plant biomass fermentation by the extreme thermophile Caldicellulosiruptor bescii for co-production of green hydrogen and acetone: Technoeconomic analysis

A variety of chemical and biological processes have been proposed for conversion of sustainable low-cost feedstocks into industrial products. Here, a biorefinery concept is formulated, modeled, and analyzed in which a naturally (hemi)cellulolytic and extremely thermophilic bacterium, Caldicellulosiruptor bescii, is metabolically engineered to convert the carbohydrate content of lignocellulosic biomasses (i.e., soybean hulls, transgenic poplar) into green hydrogen and acetone. Experimental validation of C. bescii fermentative performance demonstrated 82% carbohydrate solubilization of soybean hulls and 55% for transgenic poplar. A detailed technical design, including equipment specifications, provides the basis for an economic analysis that establishes metabolic engineering targets. This robust industrial process leveraging metabolically engineered C. bescii yields 206 kg acetone and 25 kg H 2 per metric ton of soybean hull, or 174 kg acetone and 21 kg H 2 per metric ton transgenic poplar. Beyond this specific case, the model demonstrates industrial feasibility and economic advantages of thermophilic fermentation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bilayer hybrid graphite anodes via freeze tape casting for extreme fast charging applications

Extreme fast charging (XFC) of lithium-ion batteries is critical for continuous market adoption of electric vehicles. However, mass transport limitations and sluggish kinetics lead to lithium plating in graphite anodes under fast charging conditions. One approach to address the mass transport limitation in graphite is to design low-tortuosity electrodes to enhance ionic transport. In this study, a bilayer hybrid structured electrode with directionally aligned channels was developed via freeze tape casting, which enables faster lithium ion diffusion through the graphite electrode. A scalable roll-to-roll process was designed in which slurry can be cast on any substrates for simple processing. Additionally, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy measurements indicated that the bilayer hybrid coating had both low tortuosity and short diffusion pathways, enabling XFC charging. Rate testing for the bilayer hybrid electrode indicated superior performance over the other coatings, exhibiting a ~20% improvement in the charge capacity compared with the conventional coating at 5C and 10 min total charging time. The bilayer hybrid electrode also demonstrated a 10% improvement in capacity retention compared with the conventional electrode after 1000 cycles at XFC conditions. This study demonstrates freeze tape casting as a scalable way to fabricate low-tortuosity electrodes for XFC applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗