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At least 451 records · Page 25

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The statistical mechanics of near-BPS black holes

Due to the failure of thermodynamics for low temperature near-extremal black holes, it has long been conjectured that a 'thermodynamic mass gap' exists between an extremal black hole and the lightest near-extremal state. For non-supersymmetric near-extremal black holes in Einstein gravity with an AdS2 throat, no such gap was found. Rather, at that energy scale, the spectrum exhibits a continuum of states, up to non-perturbative corrections. In this paper, we compute the partition function of near-BPS black holes in supergravity where the emergent, broken, symmetry is PSU(1, 1|2). To reliably compute this partition function, we show that the gravitational path integral can be reduced to that of a $\mathcal{N}=4$ supersymmetric extension of the Schwarzian theory, which we define and exactly quantize. In contrast to the non-supersymmetric case, we find that black holes in supergravity have a mass gap and a large extremal black hole degeneracy consistent with the Bekenstein–Hawking area. Furthermore, our results verify a plethora of string theory conjectures, concerning the scale of the mass gap and the counting of extremal micro-states.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Leveraging Extremal Dependence to Better Characterize the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract In late June, 2021, a devastating heatwave affected the US Pacific Northwest and western Canada, breaking numerous all-time temperature records by large margins and directly causing hundreds of fatalities. The observed 2021 daily maximum temperature across much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest exceeded upper bound estimates obtained from single-station temperature records even after accounting for anthropogenic climate change, meaning that the event could not have been predicted under standard univariate extreme value analysis assumptions. In this work, we utilize a flexible spatial extremes model that considers all stations across the Pacific Northwest domain and accounts for the fact that many stations simultaneously experience extreme temperatures. Our analysis incorporates the effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural climate variability in order to better characterize time-varying changes in the distribution of daily temperature extremes. We show that greenhouse gas forcing, drought conditions and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability all have significant impact on summertime maximum temperatures in this region. Our model represents a significant improvement over corresponding single-station analysis, and our posterior medians of the upper bounds are able to anticipate more than 96% of the observed 2021 high station temperatures after properly accounting for extremal dependence. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Zhang, Likun (ORCID:0000000154584556)↗

Chemistry-mediated Ostwald ripening in carbon-rich C/O systems at extreme conditions

Abstract There is significant interest in establishing a capability for tailored synthesis of next-generation carbon-based nanomaterials due to their broad range of applications and high degree of tunability. High pressure (e.g., shockwave-driven) synthesis holds promise as an effective discovery method, but experimental challenges preclude elucidating the processes governing nanocarbon production from carbon-rich precursors that could otherwise guide efforts through the prohibitively expansive design space. Here we report findings from large scale atomistically-resolved simulations of carbon condensation from C/O mixtures subjected to extreme pressures and temperatures, made possible by machine-learned reactive interatomic potentials. We find that liquid nanocarbon formation follows classical growth kinetics driven by Ostwald ripening (i.e., growth of large clusters at the expense of shrinking small ones) and obeys dynamical scaling in a process mediated by carbon chemistry in the surrounding reactive fluid. The results provide direct insight into carbon condensation in a representative system and pave the way for its exploration in higher complexity organic materials. They also suggest that simulations using machine-learned interatomic potentials could eventually be employed as in-silico design tools for new nanomaterials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection and attribution studies are rarely able to conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary drivers of precipitation change over the United States. GHG emissions increase mean and extreme precipitation from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while the decadal-scale effect of global aerosol emissions decreases precipitation. Local aerosol emissions further offset GHG increases in the winter and spring but enhance rainfall during the summer and fall. Our results show that the conflicting literature on historical precipitation trends can be explained by offsetting aerosol and greenhouse gas signals. At the scale of the United States, individual climate models reproduce observed changes but cannot confidently determine whether a given anthropogenic agent has increased or decreased rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Sensitivity of Non–Fullerene Organic Solar Cells Morphology and Performance to a Processing Additive

Although solvent additives are used to optimize device performance in many novel non-fullerene acceptor (NFA) organic solar cells (OSCs), the effect of processing additives on OSC structures and functionalities can be difficult to predict. Here, two polymer-NFA OSCs with highly sensitive device performance and morphology to the most prevalent solvent additive chloronaphthalene (CN) are presented. Devices with 1% CN additive are found to nearly double device efficiencies to 10%. However, additive concentrations even slightly above optimum significantly hinder device performance due to formation of undesirable morphologies. A comprehensive analysis of device nanostructure shows that CN is critical to increasing crystallinity and optimizing phase separation up to the optimal concentration for suppressing charge recombination and maximizing performance. Here, domain purity and crystallinity are highly correlated with photocurrent and fill factors. However, this effect is in competition with uncontrolled crystallization of NFAs that occur at CN concentrations slightly above optimal. This study highlights how slight variations of solvent additives can impart detrimental effects to morphology and device performance of NFA OSCs. Furthermore, successful scale-up processing of NFA-based OSCs will require extreme formulation control, a tuned NFA structure that resists runaway crystallization, or alternative methods such as additive-free fabrication.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Extended JT supergravity and random matrix models: The power of the string equation

A number of supersymmetric Jackiw-Teitelboim (JT) gravity theories are known to be described (in the Euclidean path integral formulation) by double-scaled random matrix models. Such matrix models can be characterized using a certain “string equation”. It was shown recently that in extended supergravity, when the number of BPS states scales as e$^{S_0}$, where $S_0$ is the extremal entropy, a special ansatz for the leading order solution of the string equation yields the supergravity spectrum. Somewhat miraculously, the construction showed that the functional form of the non-BPS (continuum) sector predicts the precise form of the BPS sector, showing the robustness of the supergravity/matrix-model correspondence. In this paper, we refine the analysis and show that the string equation, combined with some simple requirements on solutions, are powerful tools for constraining the spectrum of extended JT supergravity theories. We re-explore the cases of $\mathcal{N} = 2$ and (small) $\mathcal{N} = 4$ JT supergravity, and then explore the new cases of spectra from $\mathcal{N} = 3$ and $\mathcal{N} = 4$ large JT supergravity (recently derived by Heydeman, Shi, and Turiaci) showing that our approach also works naturally for (nearly) all the models. Based on this success, we conjecture that these new supergravity models also have matrix model descriptions.

Extended Supersymmetry↗

Coarse grained simulation of convectively driven turbulent mixing, transition, and turbulence decay

Accurate predictions with quantifiable uncertainties are essential to many practical turbulent flow applications exhibiting extreme geometrical complexity and broad ranges of length and time scales. Under-resolved computer simulations are typically unavoidable in such applications, and implicit large-eddy simulation (ILES) often becomes the effective strategy. In this work, we focus on assessing ILES initialized with well-characterized 25 6 3 homogeneous isotropic turbulence datasets generated with direct numerical simulation (DNS). ILES solutions based on the LANL xRAGE code are studied as function of resolution for 6 4 3 , 12 8 3 , 25 6 3 , and 51 2 3 grids. ILES performance of new directionally-unsplit high-order numerical hydrodynamics algorithms in xRAGE is examined in this context. Compared to the initial 25 6 3 DNS, we find longer inertial subranges and higher turbulence Reynolds number (Re) for 25 6 3 and 51 2 3 xRAGE — attributed to having linked DNS (Navier–Stokes based) solutions to nominally inviscid (higher Re) Euler based ILES solutions. For fixed 25 6 3 resolution, we find that significantly larger simulated turbulence Re can be achieved with the higher-order unsplit (vs. split) discretizations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Synthesis, Processing, and Use of Isotopically Enriched Epitaxial Oxide Thin Films

Isotopic engineering has emerged as a key approach to study the nucleation, diffusion, phase transitions, and reactions of materials at an atomic level. It aims to uncover mass transport pathways, kinetics, and operational and failure mechanisms of functional materials and devices. Understanding these phenomena leads to deeper insights into important physical processes, such as the transport of ions in energy conversion and storage devices and the role of active sites and supports during heterogeneous catalytic reactions. Likewise, isotopic engineering is being pursued as a means of modifying functionality to enable future technological applications. In this Account, we summarize our recent work employing isotope labeling (e.g., 18 O 2 and 57 Fe) during thin film synthesis and postgrowth processing to reveal growth mechanisms, defect chemistry, and elemental diffusion under working and extreme conditions. Isotope-resolved analysis techniques with nanometer-scale spatial resolution, such as time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography, facilitate the accurate quantification of isotopic placement and concentration in our well-defined heterostructures with precisely positioned, isotope-enriched layers. By measuring the nanometer-scale redistribution between natural abundance and isotopically enriched oxygen layers during the deposition of Fe 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 by molecular beam epitaxy, we identified intermixing processes driven by surface adatoms occurring both at the film growth surface and within the first few layers below the surface. Further insights into synthesis mechanisms were gained by studying the tungsten oxide thin films grown by evaporating WO 3 powder in the presence of background 18 O 2 , revealing minimal incorporation of background oxygen during the film formation process. Thermal and radiation-enhanced diffusion in epitaxial Fe and Cr oxides were precisely tracked using 18 O and 57 Fe tracer layers incorporated into model epitaxial oxide thin films. This approach has allowed us to access thermal diffusion behavior at lower temperatures than previously measured, revealing a potential changeover in diffusion mechanism. Understanding radiation-enhanced diffusion in model oxides that represent the surface layers on the structural components of nuclear reactors informs our understanding of their corrosion behavior under irradiation. Isotopic labeling can also provide unique insights into the surface exchange reactions and defect chemistry of electrocatalysts. For instance, tracking the change in 18 O concentration at the surface of an epitaxial LaNiO 3 thin film after the electrocatalytic oxygen evolution reaction revealed the participation of lattice oxygen, confirming a hypothesis that had been proposed previously. Lastly, we highlight a new direction wherein we perform in situ processing studies utilizing isotopic tracers in conjunction with model epitaxial thin films within the atom probe tomography instrument. Additionally, this Account illustrates the great potential of isotopic engineering to enable fundamental mechanistic insights into physical processes and engineer functional properties in epitaxial films, heterostructures, and superlattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Diffraction enhanced imaging utilizing a laser produced x-ray source

Image formation by Fresnel diffraction utilizes both absorption and phase-contrast to measure electron density profiles. The low spatial and spectral coherence requirements allow the technique to be performed with a laser-produced x-ray source coupled with a narrow slit. This makes it an excellent candidate for probing interfaces between materials at extreme conditions, which can only be generated at large-scale laser or pulsed power facilities. Here, we present the results from a proof-of-principle experiment demonstrating an effective ~2 μm laser-generated source at the OMEGA Laser Facility. This was achieved using slits of 1 × 30 μm 2 and 2 × 40 μm 2 geometry, which were milled into 30 μm thick Ta plates. Combining these slits with a vanadium He-like 5.2 keV source created a 1D imaging system capable of micrometer-scale resolution. The principal obstacles to achieving an effective 1 μm source are the slit tilt and taper—where the use of a tapered slit is necessary to increase the alignment tolerance. We demonstrate an effective source size by imaging a 2 ± 0.2 μm radius tungsten wire.

3D printing↗

Analysis of Weather and Climate Extremes Impact on Power System Outage

This paper provides statistical analysis of the characteristics of power system outages to gain a better understanding of the impacts of the increasing severe weather conditions on the outages. 10-year historical power system outage data from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) were gathered together with co-located weather attributes and recorded extreme weather events in the service area, which are paired in comparable spatial and temporal scales, with a focus on each outage transmission line. Statistical frequency analysis and cross-tabular evaluation are performed to investigate the occurring frequency and duration of outages associated with extreme weather in this area of study. The study reveals that the weather-related outages can be mainly attributed to hail and thunderstorm events which correspond to up to 60% out of all failures in several transmission line types.

Ren, Huiying↗

High operating temperature heat transfer fluids for solar thermal power generation. Final report

This is the final technical report for the DOE MURI project on developing high-operating temperature heat transfer fluids for solar thermal power generation. This project aimed to evaluate liquid metals as a heat-transport fluid and potential energy storage medium for concentrated solar powered (CSP) systems. The project consisted of five phases, starting with fluid selection and screen and ending with potential CSP integration. The initial fluid selection arrived at heavy liquid metals as candidate fluids such as lead bismuth eutectic (LBE) as the prime liquid-alloy candidate to be studied, given the conditions above. Fifty-seven liquid compositions were initially identified with liquidus temperatures lower than 200°C, composed of elements that provide no driving force to the reduction of Cr 2 O 3 or Al 2 O 3 passivation layers in pipe material which is required for corrosion prevention. LBE was identified as the primary candidate fluid after these compositions were compared against computational thermodynamic modeling to screen all of the selected systems that would be compatible with our design objectives. Twenty-eight of these compositions were also investigated with the rapid characterization methods; the accuracies of the liquidus temperature and the specific heats predicted by the computations were better than 3 percent and 9 percent, respectively. We conducted numerus corrosion tests of various Fe-Cr-Al based steels in LBE and its variants at temperate as high as 800°C. It was found that minor additions to the liquid did not provide sufficient corrosion protection to warrant their use in real applications. Furthermore, we investigated the detailed mechanism of corrosion between heavy liquid metal and the pipe material at these very high temperatures. A liquid metal loop was constructed to operate at these high temperatures. The loop construction and operation lead to valuable lessons learned that will be needed for industrial scale loops. Furthermore, we learned that electromagnetic pumps at these extreme temperatures will have to be reengineered and redesigned to be used for CSP applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High Power Targetry R&D and support for future generation accelerator

A high-power target system is a key beam element to complete future High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments. The target endures high power pulsed beam, leading to high cycle thermal stresses/pressures and thermal shocks. The increased beam power will also create significant challenges such as corrosion and radiation damage that can cause harmful effects on the material and degrade their mechanical and thermal properties during irradiation. This can eventually lead to the failure of the material and drastically reduce the lifetime of targets and beam intercepting devices. Designing a reliable target is already a challenge for MW class facilities today and has led several major accelerator facilities to operate at lower power due to target concerns. With present plans to increase beam power for next generation accelerator facilities in the next decade and the multi-year time-scale to acquire the knowledge on material behavior under such extreme environment, timely R&D of robust high-power targets is critical to fully secure the physics benefits of ambitious accelerator power upgrades. The next generation of high-power targets for future accelerators will use more complex geometries, novel materials, and new concepts allowing better high heat flux cooling methods. Advanced numerical simulations need to be developed to satisfy the physical design requirements of reliable beam-intercepting devices. In parallel, radiation hardened beam instrumentation irradiation methods for high-power targets must be further developed. Additional irradiation facilities are needed since only a few facilities worldwide offer beams for target testing, and the beam provided may not be appropriate for the specific facility or project. Thus, a comprehensive research and development program must be implemented to address the challenges that multi-MW targets face.

Pellemoine, F.↗

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Machine Learning to Track Objects Across Cameras

Video surveillance is one of the most important technologies used by the International Atomic Energy Agency in international safeguards. At large, complicated facilities, multiple surveillance cameras are deployed to monitor the transfer of safeguards-relevant objects across the site. During inspections, all surveillance videos are reviewed to ensure the objects are not manipulated or diverted during transfer, a laborious, time-consuming task. This work describes using deep machine learning algorithms to track objects automatically across multiple cameras, greatly improving the efficiency of the review process. The fundamental problem in this object tracking task across multiple cameras is how to associate the same object, which may show extreme intra-class variations, such as viewpoints, occlusions, and various scales, in different and even non-overlapped cameras. Object re-identification (Re-ID) in nuclear facility video surveillance is even more challenging than classic person or vehicle Re-ID problems because different instances in the same category may display an identical appearance. One observation from nuclear facility surveillance videos is that all objects must be carted (e.g., via forklift) to move. Therefore, the spatial context information of an object, which provides the feature from the carrier, is critical for the object Re-ID task. This work proposes a two-stream convolutional neural networks model that takes features of objects and their surrounding regions into account. Moreover, the custom videos usually are gleaned from different scenes from the training data, which may have extreme variations in illumination changes and/or cluttered backgrounds. Directly applying the trained model to custom videos will dramatically decrease the performance. To tackle this problem, an advanced domain adaptation technique is proposed to mitigate the gap between the data taken from different scenes. The proposed framework will track objects of interest across a nuclear complex. The resulting tracks can be used in further analyses, such as event/activity recognition, anomaly detection, etc.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Turbulent Rotating Rayleigh–Bénard Convection

Rotation with thermally induced buoyancy governs many astrophysical and geophysical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, sun, and Earth's liquid-metal outer core. Rotating Rayleigh–Bénard convection (RRBC) is an experimental system that has features of rotation and buoyancy, where a container of height H and temperature difference Δ between its bottom and top is rotated about its vertical axis with angular velocity Ω. The strength of buoyancy is reflected in the Rayleigh number (~ H 3 Δ) and that of the Coriolis force in the Ekman and Rossby numbers (~Ω -1 ). Rotation suppresses the convective onset, introduces instabilities, changes the velocity boundary layers, modifies the shape of thermal structures from plumes to vortical columns, affects the large-scale circulation, and can decrease or enhance global heat transport depending on buoyant and Coriolis forcing. RRBC is an extremely rich system, with features directly comparable to geophysical and astrophysical phenomena. Here we review RRBC studies, suggest a unifying heat transport scaling approach for the transition between rotation-dominated and buoyancy-dominated regimes in RRBC, and discuss non-Oberbeck–Boussinesq and centrifugal effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

R&D Insights for Extreme Fast Charging of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles: Insights from the NREL Commercial Vehicles and Extreme Fast Charging Research Needs Workshop, August 27-28, 2019

As battery costs have declined and battery performance has improved, the applicability of vehicle electrification has expanded beyond passenger cars to the commercial vehicle sector. However, due to the larger batteries that would be needed for the medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) sector, the electric charging capabilities to serve these larger commercial vehicles will need to be substantially more powerful than light-duty chargers. More specifically, such 'extreme fast charging' (XFC) will likely need to reach the megawatt scale to provide a full charge in less than 30 minutes in some applications. In addition, the combined cost of electrified vehicles and charging must be competitive with the costs of petroleum-based technologies and other alternatives to encourage widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among MDHD fleets. Most of these fleets have a commercial mission and demand low total cost of ownership (TCO) (which motivates minimal refueling times) and high performance from their vehicles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗